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At least 271 records · Page 15

Multifold Insights for Power System Dynamics From Data Assimilation: Meeting Current Challenges

The world’s electric power grids have evolved over the last 120 years from a single power line to today’s large networks. The evolution will continue at an accelerated rate with extensive smart grid development worldwide. Here for example, the U.S. government has set a goal of reaching 100 percent carbon pollution-free electricity by 2035, while the Department of Energy (DOE) shared a goal to deploy 30 GW and 110 GW of offshore wind by 2030 and 2050, respectively. To meet such ambitious goals, in the years to come, a significant percentage of electricity will come from intermittent renewable sources, electric vehicles (EVs), and be supplied to a vast number of loads that will actively respond to grid conditions and incentive signals. This development is largely driven by environmental and economic factors, such as reducing carbon emissions and saving electricity cost for consumers. These energy resources lead to new uncertain behaviors and dynamics which the grid has never seen and were not considered in its design. Operating such a dynamic grid with sufficient reliability and efficiency is a monumental challenge.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

A visco-plastic framework for interface processes in sedimentary reservoir rocks at HPHT conditions

As energy operations face the challenge of reservoirs at ever-increasing depths, modelling the response of reservoir rocks at high pressure and high temperature (HPHT) conditions is a crucial step for successfully unlocking new resources. At these conditions, rocks can experience thermal and pressure sensitivity, as well as admit internal phase changes at the pore-solid interfaces that determine their macroscopic response to external loading. It is therefore expected that constitutive laws of Geomechanics should be enriched to accommodate such effects. In this work, a multi-physics constitutive theory for sedimentary rocks is proposed within the general framework of viscoplasticity. The viscosity of the material is assumed to be a function of the temperature, pore-pressure and energy required to alter the inter-granular interfaces. This energy is expressed through the chemical potentials of the phases involved during processes like chemical dissolution/precipitation of the interfaces or mechanical debonding. The resulting flow law and corresponding stress equilibrium are coupled to the energy and mass conservation laws, constituting a closed system of equations, which is solved using the Finite Element simulator REDBACK. A series of numerical tests for performance and calibration is then successfully performed against different types of reservoir rocks, confining pressures and temperatures (from room temperature to over 800K). Here, we show that the mechanical response of sedimentary porous rocks at strains usually achieved in laboratory testing can be explained by accounting for the interface processes taking place at the cementitious material bonding the grains, a process that can also determine the brittle-to-ductile transition of sedimentary rocks.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Initial development of an in-situ, passive material surveillance test article for monitoring high temperature reactor structural components

This report describes the development of a family of passively-actuated surveillance test articles, suitable for use in an in-situ reactor test program monitoring the degradation in structural material properties caused by the reactor environment. The test articles apply creep-fatigue-type cyclic load to a test section driven by changes in the reactor coolant temperature converted to mechanical force by differential thermal expansion. The report describes three types of test articles, all of which apply the load to a 316H test section using Alloy 617 as the driver material. The three types of specimens each serve a unique purpose: (1) initial proof-of-concept, (2) validation of the models used to size the specimens to achieve a given strain range, and (3) demonstration that the articles can be miniaturized for use in an actual operating reactor. In addition to the specimen design, fabrication, and testing, this report describes the outline of two types of in-situ monitoring programs, using the test article. Monitoring programs such as these could be a critical component in gaining regulator acceptance for Molten Salt Reactor (MSR) designs using structural materials for which there is little long-term experimental environmental testing or operating experience available for calibrating the component structural design.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Public Reference Data for Megawatt-Scale Hydrogen Electrolysis - NLR Historical Solar PV

The U.S. Department of Energy and National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR) demonstrate hydrogen electrolysis from variable sources, hydrogen compression and storage, and hydrogen fuel cell power production using megawatt-scale equipment at NLR’s Flatirons Campus as part of the Advanced Research on Integrated Energy Systems (ARIES) research platform. This dataset represents part of that effort and is intended for academic, national laboratory, industrial, and other stakeholders to plan, design, and validate models of megawatt-scale hydrogen technologies and diverse energy infrastructure nationwide. These data provide a baseline for how existing hydrogen electrolysis technologies perform when coupled with various energy technologies. Future datasets will demonstrate how existing hydrogen fuel cell technologies can provide controllable, dispatchable, and variable power output for artificial intelligence data centers and other variable loads. This dataset entry describes the behavior of a 1.25-MW proton exchange membrane MC250 electrolyzer system, manufactured by Nel Hydrogen , [1] when fed historical data generated by the 430-kW, fixed-axis solar photovoltaic (PV) array located at NLR’s Flatirons Campus. (While the electrolyzer balance of plant supports up to 2.5 MW of electrolysis, NLR only has a single 1.25-MW electrolysis stack.) Solar PV power output data for the 2020 calendar year were categorized on a daily basis by total energy generation and standard deviation. Each day was then ranked by these metrics, and the 25th, 50th, and 100th percentiles were selected. The 75th percentile day did not exhibit sufficient variability to make for a valuable experiment. A similar process was used for the related historical wind dataset . [2] The historical days in 2020 that represented these percentiles are Dec. 19, March 29, and May 4, respectively. The entire solar day’s power profile was then fed through the MC250 electrolyzer. Due to its length, the 100th percentile day experiment was split into two parts, and the final 3 hours of the solar day were not captured. These final 3 hours contained no spikes or dips of interest and simply represented a slow decay of input solar power. Also, a single timestamp (13:13:47 on Jan. 14, 2026) was lost in the hydrogen system supervisory control and data acquisition. Finally, during the 25th percentile experiment (solar day Dec. 19, 2020) data recording was lost from 11:00:13 to 11:14:45. The roughly 15 minutes of the solar profile were rerun at the end of the experiment and spliced into this time slot during post-processing. The electrolysis system controls hydrogen production by varying direct current applied to the stack, from a maximum of 3,000 A to a minimum safe operation of 300 A, or 10%. Because the current–voltage characteristic changes as the stack ages and efficiency degrades, the actual minimum safe operating power changes over time. The historical solar profiles were translated from power (kilowatts) to current (amperes) using a curve fit with calibration data and sent to the electrolyzer power supply at 1-Hz frequency. For more details on the statistical analysis process, see the slide deck “Public Reference Data for Megawatt-Scale Hydrogen Electrolysis: NLR Historical Solar PV Analysis and Profile Generation” accessible with this data entry. These datasets report relevant hydrogen balance-of-plant and system data, all captured at 1 Hz, including hydrogen mass production measured with an Emerson Coriolis flow meter. Each .zip file represents a single solar PV electrolysis experiment and is formatted as: {technology}_{percentile}_{scaling factor} For instance, “solarPV-430kW_25_2x.zip” reports the experiment using the 25th percentile solar data from the historical 2020 solar PV dataset, scaled to 200%. Scaling factors were applied to the generated solar PV power output files to more closely match the 1.25-MW capacity of the electrolyzer. Each .zip folder contains the following files: A .csv file containing raw data. An .xlsx file explaining all the fields in the raw data. A .png plot showing the time series of hydrogen production, electrolysis power consumption, and solar power input. A PDF file detailing the historical solar data statistical analysis used to generate the solar profile. An experiment labeled “characterization_200.zip” demonstrates the MC250 electrolyzer steady-state response with 30-minute load steps for a total duration of 5 hours. Finally, a .csv file is provided with all experiments combined into one dataset labeled "combined_solarPV_experiments.csv". [1] nelhydrogen.com/product/mc-series-electrolyser . [2] data.nlr.gov/submissions/316 .

08 HYDROGEN↗

Energy Performance of Awnings in Residential Buildings

Residential buildings consume approximately 20% of the total primary energy in the United States. More than 50% of this energy is spent in heating, cooling, and lighting these buildings. Solar heat gain is one of the largest and most variable sources of cooling load in these buildings, while it can also provide passive heating during the heating season. Shading devices can be used to control the amount of solar heat gain in buildings. Various studies have considered how different shading devices and their applications affect energy and occupant comfort in buildings. However, most of these studies were limited to planar shading devices such as roller shades, cellular shades, and blinds. Although some theoretical studies have been performed for awnings, the energy performance of awnings has rarely been studied via either energy simulation or field measurement. In this study, the authors evaluated the energy performance of typical operable awnings by using field data, aided by simulation. Awnings were installed on a real house, and measurements were performed to evaluate the thermal performance of the awning. The measured data were then used to develop a calibrated energy model and evaluate the awning’s energy performance. The annual simulation of the building model used showed that awnings left in the closed position from April to September can reduce annual HVAC energy consumption by 15% compared with a building without any shades. The validated model was used in US Department of Energy prototype buildings to evaluate awning energy performance in climate zones 1A through 4B via energy simulation. For these prototype buildings, energy savings of up to 1,034 kWh were achieved for a building with a conditioned floor area of 2,377 ft 2 .

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Developing and tuning a community scale energy model for a disadvantaged community

This work describes the development of a community-scale energy model for a mixed-use low-income community located in Huntington Beach, CA. An accurate community-scale energy model is useful for evaluating the use of limited capital resources used to invest in clean energy technologies. This work lays out the process of developing such a model while relying primarily on publicly available data and highlighting critical partnerships necessary for model development success. The primary contribution of this work is the demonstration of the process used to develop an accurate energy model for a disadvantaged community when minimal building and energy use data is available. The heart of the model is the physics-based community scale energy modeling platform URBANopt. Using a bottom-up load modeling approach, energy simulated energy use falls within 3% or less of aggregate annual utility data, and within 10% or less aggregate monthly utility data. The demonstrated model development and tuning process can be used by others to characterize other atypical communities, which may differ significantly from prototypical models.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Determining the Solubility Behavior of Kogarkoite in Simulated Nuclear Waste

Kogarkoite (Na 3 FSO 4 ) is a sparingly soluble fluoride–sulfate double salt that has been identified in high level nuclear waste sludge at the Hanford Site and, more recently, in sludge batch compilation samples at the Savannah River Site (SRS). Due to its complex dissolution behavior, which exhibits an inverse dependence on sodium ion activity, the presence of this mineral poses significant challenges to waste retrieval and processing. Incomplete dissolution during sludge washing can lead to the retention of fluoride and sulfate in the high-level waste feed, potentially causing the formation of corrosive, immiscible molten salt layers, known as "glass gall,” in vitrification melters. Current efforts to optimize flowsheet parameters and wash-water volumes are hindered by the absence of a commercially available, certified reference material, which prevents the accurate calibration of analytical methods and the verification of dissolution kinetics. To address this critical gap, this research focuses on the laboratory synthesis of pure Kogarkoite to serve as a standard for comprehensive solubility and washing performance testing. A coupled synthesis and simulant campaign was executed using an evaporative crystallization protocol designed to replicate the dynamic concentration effects observed in tank farm operations. Thirteen simulant matrices were prepared by dissolving systematically varied ratios of sodium fluoride (NaF) and sodium sulfate (Na 2 SO 4 ) in deionized water under three distinct caustic regimes: 0.0 g (control), 4.0 g (~1 M), and 12.0 g (~3 M) sodium hydroxide (NaOH). While thermodynamic equilibrium models suggest that high-caustic environments should favor the stability of the double salt7, results from this evaporative study at 25 0 C revealed a distinct kinetic divergence. Simulants with high hydroxide loading predominantly yielded large, blocky crystals of sodium sulfate decahydrate (Na 2 SO 4 .10H 2 O). Successful synthesis of pure Kogarkoite was achieved exclusively in specific NaOH-free compositional windows, where the precipitate manifested as fine, opaque granular aggregates. Ion chromatography (IC) analysis confirmed phase purity through the simultaneous stoichiometric depletion of both fluoride and sulfate from the supernatant. This successful synthesis establishes a reproducible route to generate bulk Kogarkoite, enabling the subsequent phase of quantitative dissolution testing using inhibited water to optimize sludge-batch assembly.

Sarker, Md Sharif [Florida International Univ. (FI↗

Pressure Transient Analyses and Poroelastic Modeling of Hydraulic Fracture Dilation for Multiple Injections at the Devine Fracture Pilot Site

Our team has conducted electromagnetic (EM) surveys for the past six years to monitor hydraulic-fracture behavior at the Devine Fracture Pilot Site (DFPS). The sub-horizontal orientation of a shallow hydraulic fracture at the DFPS provides uniform access to the fracture area for interrogation and data collection. Ahmadian et al. (2023) suggested a possible correlation between spatiotemporal changes in the flow rate, bottomhole pressure (BHP), and the observed surface recorded electric field at the DFPS. In this paper, we present the development of poroelastic forward models and pressure transient analyses (PTAs) to support the development of a multiphysics inverse model for these EM surveys. First, we conducted PTAs of the shut-in periods after six injections out of 10 to determine the fracture closure pressure (FCP) or the overburden pressure used in a poroelastic fracture reopening model. Second, we developed a finite-element poroelastic model throughout five injection cycles to include the effect of the cumulative injected volumes due to the previous injections on current fracture dilation in the presence of highly permeable unpropped and propped zones adjacent to the cohesive layer that models fracture reopening. Fracture reopening in this poroelastic model is based on a calibrated traction-separation response using the bottomhole pressure collected in two injection campaigns in 2020 and 2022. We used the outcomes of a previous simulation study of the primary hydraulic-fracturing stimulation to define the dimension of an unpropped fracture zone ahead of the propped fracture area. The PTAs led to FCPs consistent with those obtained using the injection data collected at the DFPS in 2020. Further, these analyses showed that at later injections, the fracture closure occurred at a later time with respect to the shut-in time, inferring the effect of cumulative injected volumes in previous injections. The simulation results show that considering the propped and unpropped fracture zones improves our poroelastic model in predicting the injection-well BHP. The numerical simulation results demonstrate a significant excess pore pressure near the fracture because of the preceding formation loadings by the previous injections. The obtained fracture dilation area and fluid pressure distribution provide a basis to improve the development of a multiphysics inverse model. Furthermore, in an iteratively coupled scheme, this pressure distribution can be introduced into EM models to render a holistic view of the causative mechanisms for the surface signal anomalies.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Status of the ANNIE experiment

The Accelerator Neutrino Neutron Interaction Experiment (ANNIE) is a Gadolinium-loaded water Cherenkov detector located in the Booster Neutrino Beam at Fermilab. One of its primary physics goals is to measure the final state neutron multiplicity of neutrino-nucleus interactions. This measurement of the neutron yield as a function of the outgoing lepton kinematics will be useful to constrain systematic uncertainties and reduce biases in future long-baseline oscillation and cross-section experiments. ANNIE is also a testbed for innovative new detection technologies. It will make use of pioneering photodetectors called Large Area Picosecond Photodetectors (LAPPDs) with better than 100 picosecond time resolution, which will enhance its reconstruction capabilities and demonstrate the feasibility of this technology as a new tool in high energy physics. The status of the experiment is reported here in terms of the overall progress, the deployment of the first LAPPD and an overview of recently taken beam and calibration data. Additional future R\&D efforts and analysis opportunities involving the use of the novel detection medium of Water-based Liquid Scintillators (WbLS) are also briefly highlighted.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

A new woven composite constitutive model validated by shock wave experiments

In this paper, we present results of plate impact simulations of shock compressed woven glass fiber-reinforced plastic (GRP) performed using the Arbitrary Lagrangian–Eulerian three-dimensional finite element code. A hyperelastic large-strain-based empirical Continuum Damage Mechanics (CDM) formulation is employed to describe damage initiation and growth in the shock-compressed GRP. The model parameters calibration scheme utilizes the Velocity Interferometer System for Any Reflector normal particle velocity measurements at the free surface of the GRP target plates. The impact velocity in the experiments ranged from 8.5 to 418 m/s. The finite element model considered planar 0°/90° bidirectional plies with an individual ply thickness of 0.68 mm, stacked to reach a total laminate thickness of 6.8 mm. The anisotropic elastic strains were estimated from the experimentally determined tetragonal symmetry stiffness matrix for the GRP. The strain-based damage model captures several salient features observed in the measured free surface particle wave profiles, including the shock rise time, onset of Elastic—Elastic Cracking, and the shape of the nonlinear portion of the experimental particle velocity profiles. Furthermore, the CDM model predicts the dominant damage mode to be matrix microcracking due to shear and the associated bulk expansion (bulking) under the global compressive loading in the plate impact configuration.

42 ENGINEERING↗

As-Built Simulation of the High Flux Isotope Reactor

The Oak Ridge National Laboratory High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) is an 85 MWt flux trap-type research reactor that supports key research missions, including isotope production, materials irradiation, and neutron scattering. The core consists of an inner and an outer fuel element containing 171 and 369 involute-shaped plates, respectively. The thin fuel plates consist of a U 3 O 8 -Al dispersion fuel (highly enriched), an aluminum-based filler, and aluminum cladding. The fuel meat thickness is varied across the width of the involute plate to reduce thermal flux peaks at the radial edges of the fuel elements. Some deviation from the designed fuel meat shaping is allowed during manufacturing. A homogeneity scan of each fuel plate checks for potential anomalies in the fuel distribution by scanning the surface of the plate and comparing the attenuation of the beam to calibration standards. While typical HFIR simulations use homogenized fuel regions, explicit models of the plates were developed under the Low-Enriched Uranium Conversion Program. These explicit models typically include one inner and one outer fuel plate with nominal fuel distributions, and then the plates are duplicated to fill the space of the corresponding fuel element. Therefore, data extracted from these simulations are limited to azimuthally averaged quantities. To determine the reactivity and physics impacts of an as-built outer fuel element and generate azimuthally dependent data in the element, 369 unique fuel plate models were generated and positioned. This model generates the three-dimensional (i.e., radial–axial–azimuthal) plate power profile, where the azimuthal profile is impacted by features within the adjacent control element region and beryllium reflector. For an as-built model of the outer fuel element, plate-specific homogeneity data, 235 U loading, enrichment, and channel thickness measurements were translated into the model, yielding a much more varied azimuthal power profile encompassed by uncertainty factors in analyses. These models were run with the ORNL-TN and Shift Monte Carlo tools, and they contained upwards of 500,000 cells and 100,000 unique tallies.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Identification of crystal plasticity model parameters by multi-objective optimization integrating microstructural evolution and mechanical data

Crystal plasticity models evolve a polycrystalline yield surface using meso-scale descriptions of deformation mechanisms. The activation of deformation mechanisms is governed by crystallography and a set of model parameters, which are typically calibrated through the fitting of mechanical data such as stress–strain curves and elastic lattice strains. Microstructural data such as phase fractions and texture evolution are used for verifying crystal plasticity parameters. In this study, we use a multi-objective genetic algorithm to identify hardening parameters from flow stress curves with an option to incorporate texture into the optimization approach. Robust, generalized objective functions are developed and used to identify sets of parameters pertaining to dislocation density-based hardening laws in visco-plastic and elasto-plastic self-consistent (VPSC and EPSC) homogenization models. First, the parameters are identified for pure Nb directly from texture using an objective function based on generalized spherical harmonics. Since texture evolution is driven by the relative contribution of active slip systems, the parameters governing the evolution of slip resistance ratios can be recovered from fitting discrete textures at a series of strains. Next, a comprehensive set of load reversal data for dual phase (DP) 780 steel is used to fit a hardening law and a back-stress law in EPSC. Finally, parameters pertaining to a complex hardening law for the evolution of slip and twinning in pure α-Ti are identified. Remarkably, using texture as an objective in combination with stress–strain objectives constrains the model of Ti to fully reproduce not only stress–strain and texture evolution but also hierarchical twinning measurements as a function of initial grain size and texture. Furthermore, given an appropriate model fit to representative experimental texture evolution, underlying twin volume fractions contributing to texture evolution can be predicted.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Hierarchical multi-time-scale predictive thermal management and fuel optimization for heavy-duty compression ignition engines

For heavy-duty diesel engines, NO X emissions reduction is strongly constrained by fuel efficiency. This paper presents a hierarchical model predictive controller (H-MPC) for coordinated control of tailpipe NO X emissions and fuel consumption. The H-MPC uses the separation of slow and fast dynamics that exist in the engine and its aftertreatment system. The controller is synthesized with an architecture in which a high-level MPC uses a longer prediction horizon compared to the low-level predictive controller which tracks the high-level controller command and manages the thermal dynamics of the aftertreatment system. Engine load preview enables the high-level controller to estimate the desired catalyst temperature ahead of time and addresses the selective catalytic reduction (SCR) slow thermal dynamics. Calculated by the high-level controller, the intake manifold pressure, and the start of injection (SOI) crank angle is used as reference trajectories in the low-level controller that regulates fast dynamical behaviors such as engine out NO X emissions. Hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) validation of this integrated H-MPC on a rapid prototype controller shows that when the SCR catalyst temperature is above light-off temperature (warmed-up condition), the engine operation is shifted to operate with the best fuel economy since the warmed-up SCR can efficiently reduce the engine-out NO X emissions. Results indicate that up to 0.8% benefit in cycle averaged BSFC along with a 13% reduction in tailpipe NO X compared to a stock engine calibration can be achieved with the coordinated engine and aftertreatment system through H-MPC.

Engineering↗

Case Study: NREL Campus Chilled Water Storage Potential: Benchmark Datasets Development and Applications, Task 4 - Use Case Demonstration

The Benchmark Datasets Development and Applications project is a three-year collaboration between the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. The project seeks to collect and curate high-resolution, well-calibrated time series of building operational and indoor/outdoor environmental data, which are crucial to understanding and optimizing building energy efficiency performance and demand flexibility capabilities as well as benchmarking energy algorithms. Project outcomes include approximately twelve high-fidelity building datasets, enhanced data representation tools, and four case studies to illustrate example applications. The goal of these case studies is to define and execute analyses that demonstrate how one or more datasets collected through this project can address a data gap or challenge historically faced by building stakeholders. This technical paper summarizes the findings of one of these case studies, in which we studied the operational efficiencies of the central cooling system at NREL. We looked at three years of data from the three chillers in the Field Test Laboratory Building (FTLB), from 2019 to 2021, to compare equipment operation and demand throughout the time period. Our analysis indicates that all three chillers are operating at or below the optimal loading conditions for most of the operation time, and thus there was no efficiency drop due to loading of the chillers at full capacity. Our recommendation is that no chiller capacity increase is needed; instead, the central plant could benefit from adopting advanced control logics for optimal sequencing of chillers during part load operations. Analysis of adding chilled water thermal storage to the central plant indicated 34% savings in demand cost and 24.5% savings in total cost (energy consumption and demand charge cost). The payback period is estimated to be 11-22 years with an assumed TES cost of $\$$100-$200 per ton. This case study shows how a selected dataset is used to solve a practical building problem - learning the operational status of its components, analyzing the effectiveness of a proposed new technique, and aiding decision-making for the building operations and maintenance team.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Modeling Functional Organic Chemistry in Arctic Rivers: An Idealized Siberian System

Rivers of the Arctic will become ever more important for the global climate, since they carry a majority of continental dissolved organic carbon flux into the rapidly changing polar ocean. Aqueous organics comprise a wide array of functional groups, several of which are likely to impact coastal and open water biophysical properties. Light attenuation, interfacial films, aerosol formation, gas release and momentum exchange can all be cited. We performed Lagrangian kinetic modeling for the evolution of riverine organic chemistry as the molecules in question make their way from the highlands to Arctic outlets. Classes as diverse as the proteins, sugars, lipids, re-condensates, humics, bio-tracers and small volatiles are all included. Our reduced framework constitutes an idealized northward flow driving a major hydrological discharge rate and primarily representing the Russian Lena. Mountainous, high solute and tundra sources are all simulated, and they meet up at several points between soil and delta process reactors. Turnover rates are parameterized beginning with extrapolated coastal values imposed along a limited tributary network, with connections between different terrestrial sub-ecologies. Temporal variation of our total dissolved matter most closely resembles the observations when we focus on the restricted removal and low initial carbon loads, suggesting relatively slow transformation along the water course. Thus, channel combinations and mixing must play a dominant role. Nevertheless, microbial and photochemical losses help determine the final concentrations for most species. Chemical evolution is distinct for the various functionalities, with special contributions from pre- and post-reactivity in soil and delta waters. Several functions are combined linearly to represent the collective chromophoric dissolved matter, characterized here by its absorption. Tributaries carry the signature of lignin phenols to segregate tundra versus taiga sources, and special attention is paid to the early then marine behaviors of low molecular weight volatiles. Heteropolycondensates comprise the largest percentage of reactive carbon in our simulations due to recombination/accumulation, and they tend to be preeminent at the mouth. Outlet concentrations of individual structures such as amino acids and absorbers lie above threshold values for biophysical influence, on the monolayer and light attenuation. The extent of coastal spreading is examined through targeted regional box modeling, relying on salinity and color for calibration. In some cases, plumes reach the scale of peripheral arctic seas, and amplification is expected during upcoming decades. Conclusions are mapped from the Lena to other boreal discharges, and future research questions are outlined regarding the bonding type versus mass release as permafrost degrades. Dynamic aqueous organic coupling is recommended for polar system models, from headwaters to coastal diluent.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Accurate Effective Stress Measures: Predicting Creep Life for 3D Stresses Using 2D and 1D Creep Rupture Simulations and Data

Operating structural components experience complex loading conditions resulting in 3D stress states. Current design practice estimates multiaxial creep rupture life by mapping a general state of stress to a uniaxial creep rupture correlation using effective stress measures. The data supporting the development of effective stress measures are nearly always only uniaxial and biaxial, as 3D creep rupture tests are not widely available. This limitation means current effective stress measures must extrapolate from 2D to 3D stress states, potentially introducing extrapolation error. In this work, we use a physics-based, crystal plasticity finite element model to simulate uniaxial, biaxial, and triaxial creep rupture. Here, we use the virtual dataset to assess the accuracy of current and novel effective stress measures in extrapolating from 2D to 3D stresses and also explore how the predictive accuracy of the effective stress measures might change if experimental 3D rupture data was available. We confirm these conclusions, based on simulation data, against multiaxial creep rupture experimental data for several materials, drawn from the literature. The results of the virtual experiments show that calibrating effective stress measures using triaxial test data would significantly improve accuracy and that some effective stress measures are more accurate than others, particularly for highly triaxial stress states. Results obtained using experimental data confirm the numerical findings and suggest that a unified effective stress measure should include an explicit dependence on the first stress invariant, the maximum tensile principal stress, and the von Mises stress.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Fast strength model characterization using Bayesian statistics

A variety of flow stress models exist with new models constantly being developed. These models aim to approximate the strength of materials in a variety of regimes from quasistatic loading through shock scenarios. All models contain an array of parameters which need to be tuned to the material under study. Some models perform well under limited conditions, requiring adjustment of the parameters when venturing outside of those predefined ranges. Other models perform well over a wide range of conditions with a set of parameters, but may be outperformed by other models optimized on a tighter range of conditions. Recent research by Los Alamos demonstrated the ability to optimize the Johnson Cook (JC) model using a set of 3 plate-impact experiments on Aluminum. They utilized Bayesian statistics and emulation to determine optimal parameters for the model with a quantification of parameter uncertainty. We present an extension of this capability to incorporate velocimetry from plate-impact tests, stress-strain data from split Hopkinson pressure bar and quasistatic compression tests, plus profiles from Taylor cylinders in a unified fashion. Statistically robust comparisons of the performance and uncertainty of different realizations of the JC flow stress model were carried out based on calibration to several possible combinations of these three different experiment types.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

NDX: Neutron Dose Rate Meters with Extended Capabilities

Particle accelerators, irradiation facilities, and nuclear power plants would benefit from using neutron dose rate meters featuring improved energy response covering full range of expected neutron energies, improved dynamic range of measured dose rates while providing the real-time data, and improved ability to operate in harsh radiation environments including heavy photon backgrounds and pulsed beams. The novel design of the neutron moderator for the NDX dose rate meter implements a layer of a Beryllium-loaded medium Z material which, similar to the earlier known WENDI detectors, allows the device to detect higher energy neutron flux and convert it to dose. Using Beryllium helps to fill the known dip in the response functions around 5-50 MeV. Optimized design parameter set, obtained using FLUKA Monte Carlo simulations, features the NDX moderator made of polyethylene embedding a layer of BeCu alloy inside, with the dose rate response constant within ±10% in the neutron energy range from about 100 keV to 500 MeV, and ±25% essentially in the full energy range above thermal. A new sensor technique implemented in the NDX is based on using the Ionization Chamber (IC) filled with 3He gas to capture the moderated neutron fluence, and includes a symmetric IC filled with regular 4He to evaluate the contributions due to the non-neutron ionizing radiation. Advantages of the method include large accessible dynamic range, relative insensitivity of the IC probes to photon radiation fields, and the ability to subtract their contribution. Two prototype NDX detectors were built, calibrated, and operated in various conditions at the CEBAF 12 GeV electron accelerator at JLab. The first results showed reliable neutron dose rate measurements in the presence of overwhelming photon radiation fields, and at practical high dose rate levels of up to approximately 10 Sv/h. Detector design, operation, first results, and further development plans are presented.

Degtiarenko, Pavel V.↗