Results for “measurement error” — Page 15

NASA NTRS1987

The triple radio source 0023 + 171 - A candidate for a dark gravitational lens

In the course of a radio-optical search for gravitational lenses, a multiple radio source, 0023 + 171, was discovered, which has two optical counterparts at z = 0.946 separated by 5 arcsec. Their redshifts are the same within the measurement error, and their optical spectra show the same emission lines with the same relative intensities. One interpretation of these measurements is that the images of 0023 + 171 are gravitationally lensed. However, because the radio morphology is complex and the optical objects are faint, the existing data cannot exclude another interpretation, i.e., that the components of 0023 + 171 are two physically associated radio galaxies or two components of a single galaxy. The only possible evidence in favor of a lensing object is extremely faint optical emission located approximately 1 arcsec from one of the images. If this multiple source is indeed gravitationally lensed, the combination of available data imply a mass-to-light ratio for the lensing matter equal to about 1000.

Hewitt, J. N.↗

NASA NTRS2011

An Empirical State Error Covariance Matrix for the Weighted Least Squares Estimation Method

State estimation techniques effectively provide mean state estimates. However, the theoretical state error covariance matrices provided as part of these techniques often suffer from a lack of confidence in their ability to describe the un-certainty in the estimated states. By a reinterpretation of the equations involved in the weighted least squares algorithm, it is possible to directly arrive at an empirical state error covariance matrix. This proposed empirical state error covariance matrix will contain the effect of all error sources, known or not. Results based on the proposed technique will be presented for a simple, two observer, measurement error only problem.

Frisbee, Joseph H., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS2014

An Empirical State Error Covariance Matrix for the Weighted Least Squares Estimation Method

State estimation techniques effectively provide mean state estimates. However, the theoretical state error covariance matrices provided as part of these techniques often suffer from a lack of confidence in their ability to describe the uncertainty in the estimated states. By a reinterpretation of the equations involved in the weighted least squares algorithm, it is possible to directly arrive at an empirical state error covariance matrix. This proposed empirical state error covariance matrix will contain the effect of all error sources, known or not. Results based on the proposed technique will be presented for a simple, two observer, measurement error only problem.

Joseph Henry Frisbee↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Multipath Mitigation via Clustering for Position Estimation Refinement in Urban Environments

Position estimation using global navigation satellite systems (GNSS) suffers from poor accuracy within urban canyons due to significant signal disruption caused by tall buildings. This issue can be attributed to the GNSS signals reflecting off buildings resulting in severe multipath reflections which degrade the receiver's performance. In this paper, we introduce an innovative approach to filter GNSS satellite measurements to improve the accuracy of the estimated position by leveraging a clustering algorithm. This approach utilizes a predictive GNSS availability service to filter out non-line-of-sight measurements. Then, a subset of line-of-sight satellite measurement combinations are evaluated using a clustering algorithm. When combined, results show these techniques can reduce the mean horizontal error measured in an urban canyon by nearly an order of magnitude, from ~ 18 meters to ~ 2 meters when using a single point positioning solver.

GPS↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Multipath Mitigation via Clustering for Position Estimation Refinement in Urban Environments

Position estimation using global navigation satellite systems (GNSS) suffers from poor accuracy within urban canyons due to significant signal disruption caused by tall buildings. This issue can be attributed to the GNSS signals reflecting off buildings resulting in severe multipath reflections which degrade the receiver's performance. In this paper, we introduce an innovative approach to filter GNSS satellite measurements to improve the accuracy of the estimated position by leveraging a clustering algorithm. This approach utilizes a predictive GNSS availability service to filter out non-line-of-sight measurements. Then, a subset of line-of-sight satellite measurement combinations are evaluated using a clustering algorithm. When combined, results show these techniques can reduce the mean horizontal error measured in an urban canyon by nearly an order of magnitude, from ~ 18 meters to ~ 2 meters when using a single point positioning solver.

GPS↗

NASA NTRS2009

Basic Diagnosis and Prediction of Persistent Contrail Occurrence using High-resolution Numerical Weather Analyses/Forecasts and Logistic Regression. Part I: Effects of Random Error

Straightforward application of the Schmidt-Appleman contrail formation criteria to diagnose persistent contrail occurrence from numerical weather prediction data is hindered by significant bias errors in the upper tropospheric humidity. Logistic models of contrail occurrence have been proposed to overcome this problem, but basic questions remain about how random measurement error may affect their accuracy. A set of 5000 synthetic contrail observations is created to study the effects of random error in these probabilistic models. The simulated observations are based on distributions of temperature, humidity, and vertical velocity derived from Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) weather analyses. The logistic models created from the simulated observations were evaluated using two common statistical measures of model accuracy, the percent correct (PC) and the Hanssen-Kuipers discriminant (HKD). To convert the probabilistic results of the logistic models into a dichotomous yes/no choice suitable for the statistical measures, two critical probability thresholds are considered. The HKD scores are higher when the climatological frequency of contrail occurrence is used as the critical threshold, while the PC scores are higher when the critical probability threshold is 0.5. For both thresholds, typical random errors in temperature, relative humidity, and vertical velocity are found to be small enough to allow for accurate logistic models of contrail occurrence. The accuracy of the models developed from synthetic data is over 85 percent for both the prediction of contrail occurrence and non-occurrence, although in practice, larger errors would be anticipated.

Duda, David P.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Heisenberg-limited Hamiltonian learning for interacting bosons

We develop a protocol for learning a class of interacting bosonic Hamiltonians from dynamics with Heisenberg-limited scaling. For Hamiltonians with an underlying bounded-degree graph structure, we can learn all parameters with root mean square error ϵ using ${\mathcal{O}}(1/\epsilon )$ total evolution time, which is independent of the system size, in a way that is robust against state-preparation and measurement error. In the protocol, we only use bosonic coherent states, beam splitters, phase shifters, and homodyne measurements, which are easy to implement on many experimental platforms. A key technique we develop is to apply random unitaries to enforce symmetry in the effective Hamiltonian, which may be of independent interest.

computer science↗

NASA NTRS1990

Stochastic prediction techniques for wind shear hazard assessment

The threat of low-altitude wind shear has prompted development of aircraft-based sensors that measure winds directly on the aircraft's intended flight path. Measurements from these devices are subject to turbulence inputs and measurement error, as well as to the underlying wind profile. Stochastic estimators are developed to process on-board Doppler sensor measurements, producing optimal estimates of the winds along the path. A stochastic prediction technique is described to predict the hazard to the aircraft from the estimates as well as the level of uncertainty of the hazard prediction. The stochastic prediction technique is demonstrated in a simulated microburst wind shear environment. Use of the technique in a decision-making process is discussed.

Stratton, D. A.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Techniques for improving the accuracy of cyrogenic temperature measurement in ground test programs

The performance of a sensor is often evaluated by determining to what degree of accuracy a measurement can be made using this sensor. The absolute accuracy of a sensor is an important parameter considered when choosing the type of sensor to use in research experiments. Tests were performed to improve the accuracy of cryogenic temperature measurements by calibration of the temperature sensors when installed in their experimental operating environment. The calibration information was then used to correct for temperature sensor measurement errors by adjusting the data acquisition system software. This paper describes a method to improve the accuracy of cryogenic temperature measurements using corrections in the data acquisition system software such that the uncertainty of an individual temperature sensor is improved from plus or minus 0.90 deg R to plus or minus 0.20 deg R over a specified range.

Dempsey, Paula J.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Techniques for improving the accuracy of cryogenic temperature measurement in ground test programs

The performance of a sensor is often evaluated by determining to what degree of accuracy a measurement can be made using this sensor. The absolute accuracy of a sensor is an important parameter considered when choosing the type of sensor to use in research experiments. Tests were performed to improve the accuracy of cryogenic temperature measurements by calibration of the temperature sensors when installed in their experimental operating environment. The calibration information was then used to correct for temperature sensor measurement errors by adjusting the data acquisition system software. This paper describes a method to improve the accuracy of cryogenic temperature measurements using corrections in the data acquisition system software such that the uncertainty of an individual temperature sensor is improved from plus or minus 0.90 deg R to plus or minus 0.20 deg R over a specified range.

Dempsey, Paula J.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Frequency Shift During Mass Properties Testing Using Compound Pendulum Method

During mass properties testing on the X-48B Blended Wing Body aircraft (The Boeing Company, Chicago, Illinois) at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Dryden Flight Research Center, Edwards, California, large inertia measurement errors were observed in results from compound pendulum swings when compared to analytical models. By comparing periods of oscillations as measured from an average over the test period versus the period of each oscillation, it was noticed that the frequency of oscillation was shifting significantly throughout the test. This phenomenon was only noticed during compound pendulum swings, and not during bifilar pendulum swings. The frequency shift was only visible upon extensive data analysis of the frequency for each oscillation, and did not appear in averaged frequency data over the test period. Multiple test articles, test techniques, and hardware setups were used in attempts to eliminate or identify the cause of the frequency shift. Plotting the frequency of oscillation revealed a region of minimal shift that corresponded to a larger amplitude range. This region of minimal shift provided the most accurate results compared to a known test article; however, the amplitudes that produce accurate inertia measurements are amplitudes larger than those generally accepted in mass properties testing. This paper examines two case studies of the frequency shift, using mass properties testing performed on a dummy test article, and on the X-48B Blended Wing Body aircraft.

Wolfe, David↗

NASA NTRS1987

Wind-fetch dependence of Seasat scatterometer measurements

This work is focused on the effects of large-scale wind-generated gravity waves on scatterometer wind-measurement accuracy. Theoretical and experimental evidence of the important role played by the degree of wind-wave coupling in surface geometry and therefore in microwave signatures is presented. Seasat scatterometer wind-measurement errors are analyzed, and an error bias is found to be related to the degree of wind-wave development. Attention is focused on a dynamic measure of wind-wave development that characterizes the rate of energy transfer from the mean wind to the energy-carrying portion of the wave spectrum. An explanation of the bias is suggested based on the consideration of an additional component of surface scattering caused by electromagnetic-wave diffraction at the crests of individual, sufficiently steep wavelets.

Glazman, Roman E.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Particle Shape and Composition of NU-LHT-2M

Particle shapes of the lunar regolith simulant NU-LHT-2M were analyzed by scanning electron microscope of polished sections. These data provide shape, size, and composition information on a particle by particle basis. 5,193 particles were measured, divided into four sized fractions: less than 200 mesh, 200-100 mesh, 100-35 mesh, and greater than 35 mesh. 99.2% of all particles were monominerallic. Minor size versus composition effects were noted in minor and trace mineralogy. The two metrics used are aspect ratio and Heywood factor, plotted as normalized frequency distributions. Shape versus composition effects were noted for glass and possibly chlorite. To aid in analysis, the measured shape distributions are compared to data for ellipses and rectangles. Several other simple geometric shapes are also investigated as to how they plot in aspect ratio versus Heywood factor space. The bulk of the data previously reported, which were acquired in a plane of projection, are between the ellipse and rectangle lines. In contrast, these data, which were acquired in a plane of section, clearly show that a significant number of particles have concave hulls in this view. Appendices cover details of measurement error, use of geometric shapes for comparative analysis, and a logic for comparing data from plane of projection and plane of section measurements.

Rickman, D. L.↗

NASA NTRS1998

Effect of Refractive Index Variation on Two-Wavelength Interferometry for Fluid Measurements

Two wavelength interferometry can in principle be used to measure changes in both temperature and concentration in a fluid, but measurement errors may be large if the fluid dispersion is small. This paper quantifies the effects of uncertainties in dn/dT and dn/dC on the measured temperature and concentration when using the simple expression dn = (dn/dT)dT + (dn/dC)dC. For the data analyzed here, ammonium chloride in water from -5 to 10(exp infinity) C over a concentration range of 2-14% and for wavelengths 514.5 and 633 nm, it is shown that the gradients must be known to within 0.015% to produce a modest 10% uncertainty in the measured temperature and concentration. These results show that real care must be taken to ensure the accuracy of refractive index gradients when using two wavelength interferometry for the simultaneous measurement of temperature and concentration.

Mercer, Carolyn R.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assimilation of SMAP Observations Over Land Improves the Simulation and Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Idai

This work is focused on the role of soil moisture in the prediction of tropical cyclones (TCs) approaching land and after landfall. Soil moisture conditions can impact the circulation and structure of an existing tropical cyclone (TC) when part or all of the circulation is over land. For example, dry land surface conditions may lead to faster dissipation of a TC over land (often associated with changes in precipitation structure), whereas very wet conditions may help sustain or in rare cases re-intensify a TC. Moreover, the presence of strong soil moisture gradients may affect the symmetry and development of the TC circulation leading to changes in its over-land track. While the link between soil moisture conditions and TC evolution in proximity to land is relatively well understood in theory, applications of these findings in the context of numerical weather prediction (NWP) have been limited. Here we present a case study that explores the potential of improving TC predictions through an improved soil moisture initialization in an NWP framework. Specifically, we examine the impact of assimilating observations from the NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission into the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) global weather model on the prediction of South-West Indian Ocean TC Idai (2019). SMAP provides accurate L-band (1.4 GHz) brightness temperatures (Tb) observations that are sensitive to soil moisture globally and at high revisit times of 2-3 days. It has previously been shown that the assimilation of SMAP Tb observations significantly improves modeled land surface states. Thus, it is expected that SMAP can be used to constrain land surface initial conditions and potentially benefit TC forecasts. Here we present two sets of retrospective forecasts of TC Idai that are compared in an Observing System Experiment framework at ¼ degree resolution: (i) forecasts initialized from an analysis that is comparable to the GEOS operational analysis (without SMAP Tb assimilation) and (ii) forecasts initialized from an analysis that additionally assimilates SMAP brightness temperature observations over land using a weakly-coupled land analysis. We find that the assimilation of SMAP meaningfully improves the representation of TC Idai’s structure as well as the prediction of its intensity and track. The analyzed TC size, as measured by the wind speed radius, is improved by up to 18% in the analysis with SMAP assimilation relative to the control run. The forecast intensity error, measured against the observed intensity, is reduced by up to 23%. At the 1/4-degree resolution used here, GEOS unavoidably under-estimates TC intensity and over-estimates TC size. The SMAP assimilation therefore corrects the model in the right direction, leading to a storm that is more energetic and more compact. Furthermore, we find that the along-track forecast error is reduced by up to 34%, indicating a more accurate propagation speed, which is consistent with the fact that TC speed over land is strongly affected by surface processes. The impact of SMAP assimilation on the forecast cross-track error is neutral. Across the TC forecast skill metrics used here, the improvements from SMAP DA are largest at lead times of 36 to 72 hours, suggesting that the predictability of forecasts at shorter lead times may be dominated by short-term convective processes, while the land and its longer memory gains in importance as a source of predictability on a 2-3 day timescale. We further investigated the underlying mechanisms leading to the skill improvements from SMAP data assimilation by isolating the land areas that directly influence TC Idai using a back trajectory analysis. We find that the assimilation of SMAP leads to wetter soil moisture conditions that cause an increased latent heat flux, which ultimately results in TC analyzed representation that has higher column-integrated total moisture content and total energy compared to the analysis in the control run without SMAP assimilation. Overall, the results highlight that the assimilation of SMAP observations into a global numerical weather prediction model can lead to pronounced improvements of TC predictions. This is a crucial step towards a better mitigation of the socio-economic impact of landfalling TCs and thus safeguarding human lives. Finally, our study presents an event-based approach that assesses the impact of land data assimilation for a particular weather event rather than by globally averaging differences in skill. We argue that global skill assessments – while necessary – can mute the impact of land data assimilation, because the land’s influence on the atmosphere is constrained to certain locations and certain times. Instead, the event-based approach better highlights the true potential of land data assimilation in the context of NWP, especially for extreme events when accurate predictions are critical.

Jana Kolassa↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assimilation of SMAP Observations Over Land Improves the Simulation and Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Idai

This work is focused on the role of soil moisture in the prediction of tropical cyclones (TCs) approaching land and after landfall. Soil moisture conditions can impact the circulation and structure of an existing tropical cyclone (TC) when part or all of the circulation is over land. For example, dry land surface conditions may lead to faster dissipation of a TC over land (often associated with changes in precipitation structure), whereas very wet conditions may help sustain or in rare cases re-intensify a TC. Moreover, the presence of strong soil moisture gradients may affect the symmetry and development of the TC circulation leading to changes in its over-land track. While the link between soil moisture conditions and TC evolution in proximity to land is relatively well understood in theory, applications of these findings in the context of numerical weather prediction (NWP) have been limited. Here we present a case study that explores the potential of improving TC predictions through an improved soil moisture initialization in an NWP framework. Specifically, we examine the impact of assimilating observations from the NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission into the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) global weather model on the prediction of South-West Indian Ocean TC Idai (2019). SMAP provides accurate L-band (1.4 GHz) brightness temperatures (Tb) observations that are sensitive to soil moisture globally and at high revisit times of 2-3 days. It has previously been shown that the assimilation of SMAP Tb observations significantly improves modeled land surface states. Thus, it is expected that SMAP can be used to constrain land surface initial conditions and potentially benefit TC forecasts. Here we present two sets of retrospective forecasts of TC Idai that are compared in an Observing System Experiment framework at ¼ degree resolution: (i) forecasts initialized from an analysis that is comparable to the GEOS operational analysis (without SMAP Tb assimilation) and (ii) forecasts initialized from an analysis that additionally assimilates SMAP brightness temperature observations over land using a weakly-coupled land analysis. We find that the assimilation of SMAP meaningfully improves the representation of TC Idai’s structure as well as the prediction of its intensity and track. The analyzed TC size, as measured by the wind speed radius, is improved by up to 18% in the analysis with SMAP assimilation relative to the control run. The forecast intensity error, measured against the observed intensity, is reduced by up to 23%. At the 1/4-degree resolution used here, GEOS unavoidably under-estimates TC intensity and over-estimates TC size. The SMAP assimilation therefore corrects the model in the right direction, leading to a storm that is more energetic and more compact. Furthermore, we find that the along-track forecast error is reduced by up to 34%, indicating a more accurate propagation speed, which is consistent with the fact that TC speed over land is strongly affected by surface processes. The impact of SMAP assimilation on the forecast cross-track error is neutral. Across the TC forecast skill metrics used here, the improvements from SMAP DA are largest at lead times of 36 to 72 hours, suggesting that the predictability of forecasts at shorter lead times may be dominated by short-term convective processes, while the land and its longer memory gains in importance as a source of predictability on a 2-3 day timescale. We further investigated the underlying mechanisms leading to the skill improvements from SMAP data assimilation by isolating the land areas that directly influence TC Idai using a back trajectory analysis. We find that the assimilation of SMAP leads to wetter soil moisture conditions that cause an increased latent heat flux, which ultimately results in TC analyzed representation that has higher column-integrated total moisture content and total energy compared to the analysis in the control run without SMAP assimilation. Overall, the results highlight that the assimilation of SMAP observations into a global numerical weather prediction model can lead to pronounced improvements of TC predictions. This is a crucial step towards a better mitigation of the socio-economic impact of landfalling TCs and thus safeguarding human lives. Finally, our study presents an event-based approach that assesses the impact of land data assimilation for a particular weather event rather than by globally averaging differences in skill. We argue that global skill assessments – while necessary – can mute the impact of land data assimilation, because the land’s influence on the atmosphere is constrained to certain locations and certain times. Instead, the event-based approach better highlights the true potential of land data assimilation in the context of NWP, especially for extreme events when accurate predictions are critical.

Jana Kolassa↗

DOE OSTI2025

Enhancing quantum memory lifetime with measurement-free local error correction and reinforcement learning

Reliable quantum computation requires systematic identification and correction of errors that occur and accumulate in quantum hardware. To diagnose and correct such errors, standard quantum error-correcting protocols utilize global error information across the system obtained by mid-circuit readout of ancillary qubits. We investigate circuit-level error-correcting protocols that are measurement-free and based on local error information. Such a local error correction (LEC) circuit consists of faulty multi-qubit gates to perform both syndrome extraction and ancilla-controlled error removal. We develop and implement a reinforcement learning framework that takes a fixed set of faulty gates as inputs and outputs an optimized LEC circuit. To evaluate this approach, we quantitatively characterize an extension of logical qubit lifetime by a noisy LEC circuit. For the two-dimensional (2D) classical Ising model and four-dimensional toric code, our optimized LEC circuit performs better at extending a memory lifetime compared with a conventional LEC circuit based on Toom's rule in a subthreshold gate error regime. We further show that such circuits can be used to reduce the rate of mid-circuit readouts to preserve a 2D toric code memory. Lastly, we discuss the application of the LEC protocol on dissipative preparation of quantum states with topological phases.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1982

Spaceborne lidar measurement accuracy - Simulation of aerosol, cloud, molecular density, and temperature retrievals

In connection with studies concerning the use of an orbiting optical radar (lidar) to conduct aerosol and cloud measurements, attention has been given to the accuracy with which lidar return signals could be measured. However, signal-measurement error is not the only source of error which can affect the accuracy of the derived information. Other error sources are the assumed molecular-density and atmospheric-transmission profiles, and the lidar calibration factor (which relates signal to backscatter coefficient). The present investigation has the objective to account for the effects of all these errors sources for several realistic combinations of lidar parameters, model atmospheres, and background lighting conditions. In addition, a procedure is tested and developed for measuring density and temperature profiles with the lidar, and for using the lidar-derived density profiles to improve aerosol retrievals.

Russell, P. B.↗