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At least 271 records · Page 15

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NASA NTRS2015

Multimodel Ensembles of Wheat Growth: More Models are Better than One

Crop models of crop growth are increasingly used to quantify the impact of global changes due to climate or crop management. Therefore, accuracy of simulation results is a major concern. Studies with ensembles of crop models can give valuable information about model accuracy and uncertainty, but such studies are difficult to organize and have only recently begun. We report on the largest ensemble study to date, of 27 wheat models tested in four contrasting locations for their accuracy in simulating multiple crop growth and yield variables. The relative error averaged over models was 24-38% for the different end-of-season variables including grain yield (GY) and grain protein concentration (GPC). There was little relation between error of a model for GY or GPC and error for in-season variables. Thus, most models did not arrive at accurate simulations of GY and GPC by accurately simulating preceding growth dynamics. Ensemble simulations, taking either the mean (e-mean) or median (e-median) of simulated values, gave better estimates than any individual model when all variables were considered. Compared to individual models, e-median ranked first in simulating measured GY and third in GPC. The error of e-mean and e-median declined with an increasing number of ensemble members, with little decrease beyond 10 models. We conclude that multimodel ensembles can be used to create new estimators with improved accuracy and consistency in simulating growth dynamics. We argue that these results are applicable to other crop species, and hypothesize that they apply more generally to ecological system models.

wheat↗

NASA NTRS2015

Multimodel Ensembles of Wheat Growth: Many Models are Better than One

Crop models of crop growth are increasingly used to quantify the impact of global changes due to climate or crop management. Therefore, accuracy of simulation results is a major concern. Studies with ensembles of crop model scan give valuable information about model accuracy and uncertainty, but such studies are difficult to organize and have only recently begun. We report on the largest ensemble study to date, of 27 wheat models tested in four contrasting locations for their accuracy in simulating multiple crop growth and yield variables. The relative error averaged over models was 2438 for the different end-of-season variables including grain yield (GY) and grain protein concentration (GPC). There was little relation between error of a model for GY or GPC and error for in-season variables. Thus, most models did not arrive at accurate simulations of GY and GPC by accurately simulating preceding growth dynamics. Ensemble simulations, taking either the mean (e-mean) or median (e-median) of simulated values, gave better estimates than any individual model when all variables were considered. Compared to individual models, e-median ranked first in simulating measured GY and third in GPC. The error of e-mean and e-median declined with an increasing number of ensemble members, with little decrease beyond 10 models. We conclude that multimodel ensembles can be used to create new estimators with improved accuracy and consistency in simulating growth dynamics. We argue that these results are applicable to other crop species, and hypothesize that they apply more generally to ecological system models.

model intercomparison↗

NASA NTRS1955

Transonic Free-Flight Investigation of the Longitudinal Aerodynamic Characteristics of a 1/10-Scale Steel-Wing Model of the Northrop MX-775A Missile with Leading-Edge Extensions, Inboard Trailing-Edge Flaps, and a Speed Brake on the Vertical Tail

Results are presented of a free-flight investigation between Mach numbers of 0.7 to 1.3 and Reynolds numbers of 3.1 x 10(exp 6) to 7.0 x 10(exp 6) to determine the longitudinal aerodynamic characteristics of the Northrop MX-775A missile. This missile has a weng, body, and vertical tail, but has no horizontal tail. The basic wing plan form has an aspect ratio of 5.5, 45 deg of sweepback of the 0.406 streamwise chord line, and a taper ratio of 0.4. A 1/10-scale steel-wing model of the missile was flown with modifications to the basic wing plan form consisting of leading-edge chord-extensions deflected 7 deg downward together with the forward 15 percent of the wing chord, and inboard trailing-edge flaps deflected 5 deg downward. In addition, the model had a static-pressure tube mounted at the tip of the vertical tail for position-error measurements and had a speed brake also mounted on the vertical tail to trim the model to positive lift coefficients and to permit determination of the trim and drag effectiveness of the brake. The data are uncorrected for the effects of wing elasticity, but experimental wing influence coefficients are presented.

Arbic, R. G.↗

NASA NTRS1979

Error analysis of a satellite interferometer navigation system

An error analysis is performed for a global positioning and navigation system which relies on an orthogonal array of interferometry baselines on board a geostationary satellite. The error analysis involves linearization of a mathematical model which is based on the relationship between the measured phase differences, the known transmitter positions, and other systematic error parameters. According to the error analysis, position accuracy is critically dependent on the baseline length and the magnitude of the random component of the measuring errors. It is shown that a satellite interferometry system with baselines of about 50 m can yield position accuracies on the order of 20 m.

Gopalapillai, G. S.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Evaluation of Two Crew Module Boilerplate Tests Using Newly Developed Calibration Metrics

The paper discusses a application of multi-dimensional calibration metrics to evaluate pressure data from water drop tests of the Max Launch Abort System (MLAS) crew module boilerplate. Specifically, three metrics are discussed: 1) a metric to assess the probability of enveloping the measured data with the model, 2) a multi-dimensional orthogonality metric to assess model adequacy between test and analysis, and 3) a prediction error metric to conduct sensor placement to minimize pressure prediction errors. Data from similar (nearly repeated) capsule drop tests shows significant variability in the measured pressure responses. When compared to expected variability using model predictions, it is demonstrated that the measured variability cannot be explained by the model under the current uncertainty assumptions.

Horta, Lucas G.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Leveraging the Roman Coronagraph Approach for the HWO Error Budget

The Habitable Worlds Observatory (HWO) is currently being considered as a future, coronagraph-equipped space telescope that would fulfill the top priority of Astro-2020. The top priority stated is the building of a telescope capable of detecting and characterizing exoplanets with sensitivity down to Earth-like planets. In a coronagraph approach, the methodology for setting up the error budget and performance model can benefit directly from the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope (RST) experience. RST’s Coronagraph Instrument (CGI) is a direct precursor to the HWO coronagraph, with performance reaching below 10 −7 in contrast demonstrated in very recent thermal-vac testing, and the possibility that it will perform better with more time on orbit. The RST CGI development benefited significantly from an error budget approach and analytical model focused on the noise incurred in measuring a planet’s flux ratio. In this brief paper we outline the current state of the application of the Roman approach to an HWO flux ratio noise error budget, including reasonable allocations informed by the Roman experience, and recent studies of narrow angle scatter done independently.

Bijan Nemati↗

NASA NTRS1983

Slope-induced errors in radar altimetry over continental ice sheets

Altimeter measurements of ranges to modelled irregular surfaces are simulated and two correction schemes are used to reconstruct the modelled surfaces from the simulated data. When the cross-track slope is negligible, the problem can be treated as two-dimensional and the relocation method is preferred to the slope correction method. In a two-dimensional test case, 85 percent of the slope-induced rms error was removed by the relocation method. The mean error along profiles of about 75 km or longer is usually reduced more than the rms error. An alternative slope correction scheme, which uses the local slope to calculate the expected error, is less effective in the two-dimensional case. Over a simulated three-dimensional surface, where groundtracks are widely spaced and cross-track slopes are significant, the slope-correction method must be used in at least the cross-track direction.

Brenner, A. C.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Spatial Statistical Data Fusion (SSDF)

As remote sensing for scientific purposes has transitioned from an experimental technology to an operational one, the selection of instruments has become more coordinated, so that the scientific community can exploit complementary measurements. However, tech nological and scientific heterogeneity across devices means that the statistical characteristics of the data they collect are different. The challenge addressed here is how to combine heterogeneous remote sensing data sets in a way that yields optimal statistical estimates of the underlying geophysical field, and provides rigorous uncertainty measures for those estimates. Different remote sensing data sets may have different spatial resolutions, different measurement error biases and variances, and other disparate characteristics. A state-of-the-art spatial statistical model was used to relate the true, but not directly observed, geophysical field to noisy, spatial aggregates observed by remote sensing instruments. The spatial covariances of the true field and the covariances of the true field with the observations were modeled. The observations are spatial averages of the true field values, over pixels, with different measurement noise superimposed. A kriging framework is used to infer optimal (minimum mean squared error and unbiased) estimates of the true field at point locations from pixel-level, noisy observations. A key feature of the spatial statistical model is the spatial mixed effects model that underlies it. The approach models the spatial covariance function of the underlying field using linear combinations of basis functions of fixed size. Approaches based on kriging require the inversion of very large spatial covariance matrices, and this is usually done by making simplifying assumptions about spatial covariance structure that simply do not hold for geophysical variables. In contrast, this method does not require these assumptions, and is also computationally much faster. This method is fundamentally different than other approaches to data fusion for remote sensing data because it is inferential rather than merely descriptive. All approaches combine data in a way that minimizes some specified loss function. Most of these are more or less ad hoc criteria based on what looks good to the eye, or some criteria that relate only to the data at hand.

Braverman, Amy J.↗

NASA NTRS1981

Considerations of open-loop, closed-loop, and adaptive multicyclic control systems

Four different types of self-tuning regulators were studied for multicyclic control of helicopter vibration. A numerical simulation of the helicopter is made, using a multivariable frequency-domain model, in terms of transfer function with six input control harmonics and six output harmonics. The model characteristics vary with flight speed. An off-line identification of model characteristics is made, using the least-squared-error method and using a succession of input and output measurements. The on-line identification of model characteristics is made using the Kalman filter solution. The optimal controls are calculated from the minimization of quadratic performance function based on response and multicyclic inputs. The performance of various regulators or controllers is judged from the stability, transient response, convergence time, and amplitude of the steady state.

Chopra, I.↗

NASA NTRS1991

A numerical procedure for recovering scattering coefficients from measurements with wide-beam antennas

A numerical procedure for estimating true scattering coefficients, sigma0, from measurements made using wide-beam antennas is discussed. The use of wide-beam antennas results in an inaccurate estimate of sigma0. To reduce this error, the authors propose a correction procedure that estimates the error resulting from the use of narrow-beam approximation and utilizes the error to obtain a more accurate estimate of sigma0. An exponential model is assumed to take into account the variation of sigma0 with incidence angles, and the model parameters are estimated from measured data. Based on the model and knowledge of the antenna pattern, the procedure calculates the error due to the narrow-beam approximation. The procedure is shown to provide a significant improvement in the estimation of sigma0 obtained in wide-beam antennas. The proposed procedure is also shown to be insensitive to the assumed sigma0 model.

Wang, Qinglin↗

NASA NTRS1994

An evaluation of the regional acid deposition model surface module for ozone uptake at three sites in the San Joaquin Valley of California

Plants and soils act as major sinks for the destruction of tropospheric ozone, especially during daylight hours when plant stomata open and are thought to provide the dominant pathway for the uptake of ozone. The present study, part of the California Ozone Deposition Experiment, compares predictions of the regional acid deposition model ozone surface conductance module with surface conductance data derived from eddy covariance measurements of ozone flux taken at a grape, a cotton, and a grassland site in the San Joaquin Valley of California during the summer of 1991. Results indicate that the model (which was developed to provide long-term large-area estimates for the eastern United States) significantly overpredicts the surface conductance at all times of the day for at least two important types of plant cover of the San Joaquin Valley and that it incorrectly partitions the ozone flux between transpiring and nontranspiring components of the surface at the third site. Consequently, the model either overpredicts or inaccurately represents the observed deposition velocities. Other results indicate that the presence of dew does not reduce the rate of ozone deposition, contradicting to model assumptions, and that model assumptions involving the dependency of stomata upon environmental temperature are unnecessary. The effects of measurement errors and biases, arising from the presence of the roughness sublayer and possible photochemical reactions, are also discussed. A simpler model for ozone surface deposition (at least for the San Joaquin Valley) is proposed and evaluated.

Massman, W. J.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

CropManage Application for Vineyard Irrigation Decision-Support

CropManage is a free web-application developed by U.C. Cooperative Extension to support evapotranspiration based irrigation scheduling and nutrient management for major specialty crops. Prescribed phenology curves are used to develop daily estimates of canopy cover within a given field, based on days since planting (annual crops) or budbreak (trees, vines). These curves are modulated by a MaxCan parameter representing seasonal maximum canopy cover. Crop development observations can be used to adjust for such factors as weather anomalies or non-standard agronomic practice, as needed. Canopy cover is converted to crop coefficient and combined with reference evapotranspiration to derive daily water consumption. Guidance on crop water requirement is then conveyed to users in terms of system runtime issued on-demand for a given date, largely based on total evapotranspiration since last irrigation event. In this study, CropManage was adapted to vineyards by adding modules accounting for early-season soil moisture depletion and cover crop presence. A crop stress parameter was added to accommodate deficit irrigation practice, allowing the user to specify percentage departure from full water requirement along with start/stop dates. An initial verification exercise was performed on three winegrape vineyards located in California’s Central Coast (2020), North Coast (2020) and Central Valley (2019). Daily crop evapotranspiration was monitored by eddy-covariance fluxtowers. MaxCan was measured by ground and satellite observation. Stress regime was specified by grower practice where available, otherwise stress levels were inferred from applied water records. Mean absolute error and mean bias error of modeled cumulative evapotranspiration were computed with respect to the eddy covariance measurements collected throughout the growing season. Results indicate the modified CropManage water management module performs reasonably well for winegrape. Additional effort is planned to modify the nutrient module for vineyard use.

CropManage↗

NASA NTRS1980

A clear-sky spectral solar radiation model for snow-covered mountainous terrain

A clear-sky spectral solar radiation model for direct and diffuse fluxes, combined with topographic calculations from digital terrain data, computes either incident, net, or reflected solar radiation at any point on a snow surface in mountainous terrain. The radiation may be integrated over any wavelength range from 250 to 5000 nm, or over any time step. Atmospheric attenuation parameters are ozone, water vapor, the Angstrom turbidity coefficient and exponent, and the absorptance to reflectance ratio of the atmospheric aerosols. The model derives these, from measurements which may contain both systematic and random errors, by finding the least squares solution to an overdetermined set of nonlinear equations. For calculations over a specified area, it employs table look-up procedures, so that computation speed for the spectral model approaches that for a lumped model. Thus it may be useful as part of a snow surface energy budget calculation over a drainage basin.

Dozier, J.↗

NASA NTRS1991

A Variational Formalism for the Radiative Transfer Equation: Prelude to Model 3

The MODEL III variational data assimilation model is the third of four general assimilation models designed to blend weather data measured from space based platforms in the meteorological data mainstream in a way that maximizes the information content of the satellite data. Because there are many different observation locations and there are many instruments with different measurement error characteristics, it is also necessary to require that the blending be done to maximize the information content of the data and simultaneously to retain a dynamically consistent and reasonably accurate description of the state of the atmosphere. This is ideally a variational problem for which the data receive relative weights that are inversely proportional to measurement error and are adjusted to satisfy a set of dynamical equations that govern atmospheric processes. The advantage of MODEL III over the previous two models is that radiance, the atmospheric variable measured by satellite, becomes a dependent variable. In the previous versions, mean layer temperatures that had been retrieved from the radiances by some method, were included in the assimilation by substituting them in place of the rawinsonde temperatures. Now both rawinsonde temperatures and satellite radiances are included independently in the assimilation.

Achtemeier, Gary L.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Detection of stratospheric ozone trends by ground-based microwave observations

We present an assessment of the trend detection capabilities of ground-based microwave measurements of ozone, focusing on the 20-60 km region. Uncertainty due to variable forward model and calibration errors is 3-5 percent; due to temperature profile errors, 1-2 percent; and due to spectral measurement errors, 1-3 percent. The measurement resolution is 8-10 km below 40 km, and increases to 17 km at 60 km. The net error for trend detection is 4-6 percent. Comparison with other measurements suggests interannual variations can be measured to 3-5 percent. We conclude a trend of 0.5 percent per year would be detected in about 10 years.

Connor, Brian J.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Modelling, calibration, and error analysis of seven-hole pressure probes

This report describes the calibration of a nonnulling, conical, seven-hole pressure probe over a large range of flow onset angles. The calibration procedure is based on the use of differential pressures to determine the three components of velocity. The method allows determination of the flow angle and velocity magnitude to within an average error of 1.0 deg and 1.0 percent, respectively. Greater accuracy can be achieved by using high-quality pressure transducers. Also included is an examination of the factors which limit the use of the probe, a description of the measurement chain, an error analysis, and a typical experimental result. In addition, a new general analytical model of pressure probe behavior is described, and the validity of the model is demonstrated by comparing it with experimentally measured calibration data for a three-hole yaw meter and a seven-hole probe.

Zillac, G. G.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Regional-scale estimates of surface moisture availability and thermal inertia using remote thermal measurements

A review is presented of numerical models which were developed to interpret thermal IR data and to identify the governing parameters and surface energy fluxes recorded in the images. Analytic, predictive, diagnostic and empirical models are described. The limitations of each type of modeling approach are explored in terms of the error sources and inherent constraints due to theoretical or measurement limitations. Sample results of regional-scale soil moisture or evaporation patterns derived from the Heat Capacity Mapping Mission and GOES satellite data through application of the predictive model devised by Carlson (1981) are discussed. The analysis indicates that pattern recognition will probably be highest when data are collected over flat, arid, sparsely vegetated terrain. The soil moisture data then obtained may be accurate to within 10-20 percent.

Carlson, T. N.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Evaluating North American net primary productivity with satellite observations

An ecological model is developed to estimate annual net primary productivity (NPP) in 12 North American biomes. The model combines existing models which address canopy photosynthesis in response to light, temperature, and moisture availability, and account for respiration. Climate data, solar radiation data, and spectral vegetation index data are utilized. Estimates of NPP from the model compare well with data in the literature, but a systematic error is suspected. Difficulties encountered in specifying certain model parameters are discussed as possible sources of this error. The results of this study suggest the promise of remotely sensed measurements for macroscale evaluation and modeling of NPP.

Goward, Samuel N.↗