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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Analysis of human performance differences between students and operators when using the Rancor Microworld simulator

Here, from within the umbrella of the Simplified Human Error Experimental Program (SHEEP) framework, this paper analyzes human performance differences between professional and student operators when using a simplified simulator (i.e., Rancor Microworld). This paper represents a crucial step in understanding the fidelity of the simplified simulators and student operators within the SHEEP study. This paper explores a randomized factorial experimental design that features two independent variables: participant type and event class. Six human performance measurements are considered in the experiment. The experiment is conducted using 20 professional reactor operators employed at actual nuclear power plants (NPPs), along with 20 trained students. The experimental data are analyzed via statistical analysis methods. Finally, this paper examines the differences in human performance between actual operators and students when using Rancor Microworld.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Benchmarking FFTF LOFWOS Test# 13 using SAM code: Baseline model development and uncertainty quantification

The development and deployment of advanced reactors, such as the sodium-cooled fast reactor (SFR), relies on sophisticated modeling tools to ensure the safety of the design under various transients. The predictive capability of these advanced modeling tools requires validation to garner trust in supporting the licensing of the advanced reactors. For this reason, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) initiated a coordinated research project (CRP) in 2018 for the analysis of the Fast Flux Test Facility (FFTF) Loss of Flow Without Scram (LOFWOS) Test #13.In this study, we present and discuss the benchmarking efforts of the modern system code SAM on the FFTF LOFWOS Test #13. Further, the SAM baseline model was developed according to the benchmark specification, which included a detailed core model with reactivity feedback. Generally, good agreement was observed between the baseline results and benchmark measurements; however, discrepancies persisted, particularly in predicted fuel assembly coolant outlet temperatures. Utilizing the baseline model, uncertainty quantification (UQ) and sensitivity analysis (SA) were conducted with the assistance of various statistical learning and machine learning methods, including kernel density estimation, Gaussian processes, and Sobol indices. Following the baseline model prediction and UQ and SA results, we discuss the reasons for the simulation discrepancies and propose further improvements to the model. This benchmarking effort adheres to the best-estimate plus uncertainty approach and can serve as a valuable example for supporting risk-informed licensing of advanced reactors.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Measurements of Pion and Muon Nuclear Capture at Rest on Argon in the LArIAT Experiment

We report the measurement of the final-state products of negative pion and muon nuclear capture at rest on argon by the LArIAT experiment at the Fermilab Test Beam Facility. We measure a population of isolated MeV-scale energy depositions, or blips, in 296 LArIAT events containing tracks from stopping low-momentum pions and muons. The average numbers of visible blips are measured to be 0.74 ± 0.19 and 1.86 ± 0.17 near muon and pion track endpoints, respectively. The 3.6⁢𝜎 statistically significant difference in blip content between muons and pions provides the first demonstration of a new method of pion-muon discrimination in neutrino liquid argon time projection chamber experiments. LArIAT Monte Carlo simulations predict substantially higher average blip counts for negative muon (1.22 ± 0.08) and pion (2.34 ± 0.09) nuclear captures. We attribute this difference to geant4’s inaccurate simulation of the nuclear capture process.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2021

Application of Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods for Uncertainty Quantification in Inverse Transport Problems

Determination of the components of a radioactive source/shield system using the system’s radiation signature is of great importance in homeland security, material safeguards, and waste management. Although significant progress has been made toward solving this inverse transport problem in recent years, work remains to be done to quantify the uncertainty in reconstructed results. In this article we apply two Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approaches, the delayed rejection adaptive metropolis (DRAM) and differential evolution adaptive metropolis (DREAM) methods, to solve inverse problems and quantify uncertainty. The DRAM method uses delayed rejection combined with global adaptation of the proposal covariance matrix. Furthermore, the DREAM method hybridizes MCMC sampling with the differential evolution (DE) algorithm. In numerical test cases, the DRAM and DREAM methods are shown to be superior to a first-order inverse Hessian approach for problems with noisy data and multiple unknown quantities, with DREAM converging to the posterior distribution more quickly than DRAM. The DREAM and DRAM results indicate that a full posterior distribution is required to quantify uncertainty in many inverse transport problems.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Davis–Chandrasekhar–Fermi method revisited

ABSTRACT Despite the rich observational results on interstellar magnetic fields in star-forming regions, it is still unclear how dynamically significant the magnetic fields are at varying physical scales, because direct measurement of the field strength is observationally difficult. The Davis–Chandrasekhar–Fermi (DCF) method has been the most commonly used method to estimate the magnetic field strength from polarization data. It is based on the assumption that gas turbulent motion is the driving source of field distortion via linear Alfvén waves. In this work, using MHD simulations of star-forming clouds, we test the validity of the assumption underlying the DCF method by examining its accuracy in the real 3D space. Our results suggest that the DCF relation between turbulent kinetic energy and magnetic energy fluctuation should be treated as a statistical result instead of a local property. We then develop and investigate several modifications to the original DCF method using synthetic observations, and propose new recipes to improve the accuracy of DCF-derived magnetic field strength. We further note that the biggest uncertainty in the DCF analysis may come from the linewidth measurement instead of the polarization observation, especially since the line-of-sight gas velocity can be used to estimate the gas volume density, another critical parameter in the DCF method.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

ResStock Measure Documentation: Residential Variable-Speed Geothermal Heat Pump (4.4 COP, 30.9 EER)

The goal of this work is to develop energy efficiency, demand flexibility, and other retrofit end-use load shapes (electricity, gas, propane, or fuel oil) that cover a majority of the high-impact, market-ready (or nearly market-ready) measures. "Measures" refers to retrofits that can be applied to buildings during modeling. An "end-use savings shape" is the difference in energy consumption between a baseline building and a building with an energy efficiency, demand flexibility, or other retrofit measure applied. It results in a time-series profile that is broken down by end use and fuel (electricity or on-site gas, propane, or fuel oil use) at each time step. ResStock (TM) is a highly granular, physics-based, bottom-up model that uses multiple data sources, statistical sampling methods, and advanced building energy simulations to estimate the annual subhourly energy consumption of the residential building stock across the United States. The baseline model intends to represent the U.S. residential building stock as it existed in 2018. Technical documentation for the inputs and assumptions in the baseline building stock model is available in Reyna et al. (2025). Calibration and validation of the baseline model results are available in the final technical report of the End-Use Load Profiles project (Wilson et al. 2022). This documentation focuses on a single end-use savings shape measure: Residential Variable-Speed Geothermal Heat Pump (GHP). This document provides the relevant new modeling information for variable-speed systems not previously covered in either the single-stage or two-stage documents. Variable-speed GHPs represent the most efficient option available for this technology: They provide the most savings, with up to 46% for the applicable portion of the housing stock, compared to 31% for less efficient single-stage GHPs. Additional results shown here detail how the savings change for sections of the housing stock with different base heating fuels and in different climate zones, and they show the savings potential by state for both heating and cooling. Utility bills and electric panel impacts are also shown and discussed.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

The sensitive surface chemistry of Co-free, Ni-rich layered oxides: identifying experimental conditions that influence characterization results

Recent studies have suggested that Co-free, Ni-rich layered cathodes (e.g., doped LiNiO2) can provide promising battery performance for practical applications. However, these layered cathodes suffer from significant surface instability during various stages of the sample history, which generates inherent challenges for achieving stable battery performance and obtaining statistically representative characterization results. To reliably report the surface chemistry of these materials, delicate controls of stepwise sample preparation are required. In this study, we aim to reveal how the surface chemistry of LiNiO2 based materials changes with various environments, including human exhalation, sample storage, sample preparation, electrochemistry cycling, and surface doping. Our results demonstrate that the surface of these materials is highly reactive and prone to alter at various stages of sample handling and characterization. The sensitive surface could impact the interpretation of the surface chemical and structural information, including surface carbonate formation, transition metal reduction and dissolution, and surface reconstruction. Importantly, the heterogeneity of the surface degradation calls for a consolidation of nanoscale, high-resolution characterization, and ensemble-averaged methods in order to improve statistical representation. Furthermore, the doping chemistry can effectively mitigate the surface degradation and improve overall battery performance due to the enhanced surface oxygen retention. Our study highlights the necessity of strict measurements through complementary characterizations at multiple length scales to eliminate unintentional biased conclusions.

surface chemistry, Co-free Ni-rich cathodes, Istab↗
DOE OSTI2022

Inferring subhalo effective density slopes from strong lensing observations with neural likelihood-ratio estimation

ABSTRACT Strong gravitational lensing has emerged as a promising approach for probing dark matter (DM) models on sub-galactic scales. Recent work has proposed the subhalo effective density slope as a more reliable observable than the commonly used subhalo mass function. The subhalo effective density slope is a measurement independent of assumptions about the underlying density profile and can be inferred for individual subhaloes through traditional sampling methods. To go beyond individual subhalo measurements, we leverage recent advances in machine learning and introduce a neural likelihood-ratio estimator to infer an effective density slope for populations of subhaloes. We demonstrate that our method is capable of harnessing the statistical power of multiple subhaloes (within and across multiple images) to distinguish between characteristics of different subhalo populations. The computational efficiency warranted by the neural likelihood-ratio estimator over traditional sampling enables statistical studies of DM perturbers and is particularly useful as we expect an influx of strong lensing systems from upcoming surveys.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2024

Topological Interpretability for Deep Learning

With the growing adoption of AI-based systems across everyday life, the need to understand their decision-making mechanisms is correspondingly increasing. The level at which we can trust the statistical inferences made from AI-based decision systems is an increasing concern, especially in high-risk systems such as criminal justice or medical diagnosis, where incorrect inferences may have tragic consequences. Despite their successes in providing solutions to problems involving real-world data, deep learning (DL) models cannot quantify the certainty of their predictions. These models are frequently quite confident, even when their solutions are incorrect. This work presents a method to infer prominent features in two DL classification models trained on clinical and non-clinical text by employing techniques from topological and geometric data analysis. We create a graph of a model's feature space and cluster the inputs into the graph's vertices by the similarity of features and prediction statistics. We then extract subgraphs demonstrating high-predictive accuracy for a given label. These subgraphs contain a wealth of information about features that the DL model has recognized as relevant to its decisions. We infer these features for a given label using a distance metric between probability measures, and demonstrate the stability of our method compared to the LIME and SHAP interpretability methods. This work establishes that we may gain insights into the decision mechanism of a DL model. This method allows us to ascertain if the model is making its decisions based on information germane to the problem or identifies extraneous patterns within the data.

Spannaus, Adam↗
DOE OSTI2025

Precision Measurement of the Neutron Magnetic Form Factor via the Ratio Method at Jefferson Lab Hall A

Protons and neutrons, collectively known as nucleons, are composed of quarks and gluons. The Sachs electromagnetic form factors encode information about the spatial distributions of charge and magnetization in the nucleon, particularly at low momentum transfer. In particular, the neutron magnetic form factor (GMn) provides crucial information about the distribution of magnetization inside the neutron and helps constrain theoretical models of nucleon structure. Quasi-elastic electron scattering from deuterium was measured up to Q^2=13.5 GeV^2 using the Super BigBite Spectrometer in Hall A at Jefferson Lab. In this work, the neutron magnetic form factor GMn was extracted at Q^2 = 3.0 GeV^2 and Q^2=4.5 GeV^2 using the Ratio Method. These results represent a subset of the full dataset collected in this experiment, which extended to significantly higher Q^2. The extracted GMn values agree with the existing global fit within approximately two standard deviations at Q^2=3.0 and show excellent agreement at Q^2=4.5. The measurements achieved systematic uncertainties of about 2% and statistical uncertainties below 0.5%, among the most precise determinations of GMn at these kinematics. These results demonstrate the robustness of the experimental technique and provide an important validation point for future extractions at higher Q^2, where data remain scarce. In addition, the GRINCH heavy gas Cherenkov detector—a key component of the experimental apparatus—was commissioned and achieved an electron detection efficiency of approximately 97%, supporting reliable particle identification. Together, the analysis presented here advances both our understanding of nucleon structure and the validation of the experimental methods and instrumentation used to access it.

Satnik, Maria [College of William and Mary, Willia↗
DOE OSTI2025

ComStock Measure Scenario Documentation: Chiller Replacement

Building on a 3-year effort to calibrate and validate the U.S. Department of Energy's ResStock (TM) and ComStock (TM) models, this work produces national datasets that empower analysts working for federal, state, utility, city, and manufacturer stakeholders to answer a broad range of questions regarding their commercial building stock. ComStock is a highly granular, bottom-up model that uses multiple data sources, statistical sampling methods, and advanced building energy simulations to estimate the annual energy consumption (at a subhourly resolution) of the commercial building stock across the United States. The baseline model intends to represent the U.S. commercial building stock as it existed in 2018. The methodology and results of the baseline model are discussed in the final technical report of the End-Use Load Profiles project. The goal of this work is to develop energy efficiency and demand flexibility end-use load shapes that cover high-impact, market-ready (or nearly market-ready) measures. "Measures" refers to various "what-if" scenarios that can be applied to buildings. An end-use savings shape is the difference in energy consumption between a baseline building (or collection of buildings) and a building with an energy efficiency or demand flexibility measure applied. It results in a time-series profile broken down by end use and fuel (electricity or on-site gas, propane, or fuel oil use) at each time step, as well as annual aggregations. This report describes the modeling methodology for a single end-use savings shape measure - chiller replacement - and briefly introduces key results. The full public dataset can be accessed on the ComStock (TM) data lake or via the Data Viewer at comstock.nrel.gov. The public data set enables users to create custom aggregations of results for their use case (e.g., filter to a specific county).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

Resolving local ordering and structure in Mn x Ge 1- x Te alloys through thermodynamic ensembles of pair distribution functions

Characterizing local bonding environments in complex materials is essential for understanding and optimizing their properties. Equally as important is the ability to predict local motifs as a function of synthesis conditions, enhancing chemists’ ability to design properties into materials. In this study, we present an approach to leverage statistical mechanics to generate temperature- and energy-informed ensemble averaged pair distribution functions (PDFs). This method, which we have named Thermodynamic Ensemble Averages of PDFs for Ordering and Transformations (TEAPOT), utilizes density functional theory (DFT) to relax supercells while incorporating energetic penalties for local order, enabling accurate and computationally efficient analysis of local structure. We apply this method to the neutron PDF measurements of the pseudobinary MnTe–GeTe (MGT) alloy, demonstrating its capability to resolve complex local distortions and chemical ordering. Our results reveal detailed insights into phase transformations and local distortions driven by Mn substitution. For compositions that globally present as rock salt, our analysis reveals that Ge coordination geometry is heavily impacted by synthesis temperature. We propose that high temperature synthesis conditions promote a lowered Ge polyhedra distortion, promoting high charge carrier mobility due to the alignment of local and global structure. Incorporating statistical mechanics and computation into experimental analysis thus guides synthesis of tailored local structure.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Do parcel lockers reduce delivery times? Evidence from the field

Common-carrier parcel lockers have emerged as a secure, automated, self-service means of delivery consolidation in congested urban areas, which are believed to mitigate last-mile delivery challenges through reducing out-of-vehicle delivery times and consequently vehicle dwell times at the curb. However, little research exists to empirically demonstrate the environmental and efficiency gains from this technology. In this study, we designed a nonequivalent groups pre-test/post-test control experiment to estimate the causal effects of a parcel locker on delivery times in a residential building in downtown Seattle, WA. Here, the causal effects are measured in terms of vehicle dwell time and the time delivery couriers spend inside the building, through the difference-in-difference method and using a similar nearby residential building as a control. The results showed a statistically significant decrease in time spent inside the building, and small yet insignificant reduction in delivery vehicle dwell time at the curb. The locker was also well received by the building managers and residents.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

Determination of X-ray detection limit and applications in perovskite X-ray detectors

X-ray detection limit and sensitivity are important figure of merits for perovskite X-ray detectors, but literatures lack a valid mathematic expression for determining the lower limit of detection for a perovskite X-ray detector. In this work, we present a thorough analysis and new method for X-ray detection limit determination based on a statistical model that correlates the dark current and the X-ray induced photocurrent with the detection limit. The detection limit can be calculated through the measurement of dark current and sensitivity with an easy-to-follow practice. Alternatively, the detection limit may also be obtained by the measurement of dark current and photocurrent when repeatedly lowering the X-ray dose rate. While the material quality is critical, we show that the device architecture and working mode also have a significant influence on the sensitivity and the detection limit. Our work establishes a fair comparison metrics for material and detector development.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2025

A convergence metric for counting statistics in time-resolved small angle neutron scattering

Here, this work introduces a model-independent, dimensionless metric for predicting optimal measurement duration in time-resolved small-angle neutron scattering using early-time data. Built on a Gaussian process regression framework, the method reconstructs scattering profiles with quantified uncertainty, even from sparse or noisy measurements. Demonstrated on the EQ-SANS instrument at the Spallation Neutron Source, the approach generalizes to general SANS instruments with a two-dimensional detector. A key result is the discovery of a dimensionless convergence metric revealing a universal power-law scaling in profile evolution across soft matter systems. When time is normalized by a system-specific characteristic time t*, the variation in inferred profiles collapses onto a single curve with an exponent between −2 and −1. This trend emerges within the first ten time steps, enabling early prediction of measurement sufficiency. The method supports real-time experimental optimization and is especially valuable for maximizing efficiency in low-flux environments such as compact accelerator-based neutron sources.

Tung, Chi-Huan [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORN↗
DOE OSTI2025

BICEP/ Keck XVIII: Measurement of BICEP3 polarization angles and consequences for constraining cosmic birefringence and inflation

We use a custom-made calibrator to measure individual detectors’ polarization angles of BICEP3, a small aperture telescope observing the cosmic microwave background (CMB) at 95 GHz from the South Pole. We describe our calibration strategy and the statistical and systematic uncertainties associated with the measurement. We reach an unprecedented precision for such measurement on a CMB experiment, with a repeatability for each detector pair of 0.02°. Here, we show that the relative angles measured using this method are in excellent agreement with those extracted from CMB data. Because the absolute measurement is currently limited by a systematic uncertainty, we do not derive cosmic birefringence constraints from BICEP3 data in this work. Rather, we forecast the sensitivity of BICEP3 sky maps for such analysis. We investigate the relative contributions of instrument noise, lensing, and dust, as well as astrophysical and instrumental systematics. We also explore the constraining power of different angle estimators, depending on analysis choices. We establish that the BICEP3 2-year dataset (2017–2018) has an on-sky sensitivity to the cosmic birefringence angle of 𝜎 𝛼 = 0.07⁢8°, which could be improved to 𝜎 𝛼 = 0.05⁢5° by adding all of the existing BICEP3 data (through 2023). Furthermore, we emphasize the possibility of using the BICEP3 sky patch as a polarization calibration source for CMB experiments, which with the present data could reach a precision of 0.035°. Finally, in the context of inflation searches, we investigate the impact of detector-to-detector variations in polarization angles as they may bias the tensor-to-scalar ratio 𝑟. We show that while the effect is expected to remain subdominant to other sources of systematic uncertainty, it can be reliably calibrated using polarization angle measurements such as the ones we present in this paper.

Cosmic microwave background↗
DOE OSTI2020

Non-Intrusive Appliance Identification with Appliance-Specific Networks

The problem of noninstrusive load monitoring (NILM) is usually formulated as a single-channel blind source separation task, whose successful solution enable fast and convenient load identification and energy disaggregation. When applied at test time, NILM algorithms aim to identify the operating characteristics of individual appliances from an aggregate power measurement of the entire house. Recent advances in deep learning gave rise to many methods that mostly focus on learning a direct mapping from aggregate measurement to individual appliance power. However, these methods are not only computationally expensive, but they often suffer from overfitting and do not generalize very well. In this article, we propose a novel NILM method that leverages advances in statistical learning that have not been properly applied in this domain before. The proposed method consists of three stages: first, a Bayesian nonparametric learning-based approach for appliance state extraction; second, synthetic minority oversampling technique for data augmentation and mitigating the heavy imbalance in switching events; and third, appliance-specific lightweight long short-term memory networks for status classification for each appliance. Here, we adopt a “differential” input (the difference before and after the switching event) to reduce the complexity of network training and make the proposed method robust to multiappliance switching events. Experiments are conducted to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method, achieving superior performance when compared to recent methods. An ablation study is conducted to demonstrate the effectiveness of each module of our method. Finally, we investigate the quality of generated synthetic samples.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

ComStock Measure Documentation: Fan Static Pressure Reset for Multizone Variable Air Volume Systems

This report assesses the potential for nationwide adoption of a duct static pressure reset in MZ VAV systems in appropriate applications. Building on the 3-year End-Use Load Profiles project to calibrate and validate the U.S. Department of Energy’s ResStock™ and ComStock™ models, this work produces national datasets that enable cities, states, utilities, and other stakeholders to answer a broad range of questions regarding their commercial building stock. ComStock is a highly granular, bottom-up model that uses various data sources, statistical sampling methods, and advanced building energy simulations to estimate the annual sub-hourly energy consumption of the commercial building stock across the United States. The “baseline” model intends to represent the U.S. commercial building stock as it existed in 2018. The methodology of the baseline model is discussed in the ComStock Reference Documentation. The goal of this work is to develop energy efficiency and demand flexibility measures that cover market-ready technologies and study their mass-adoption impact on the baseline building stock. “Measures” refers to various “what-if” scenarios that can be applied to buildings. The results for the baseline and measure scenario simulations are published in public datasets that provide insights into building stock characteristics, operational behaviors, utility bill impacts, and annual and sub-hourly energy usage by fuel type and end use. This report describes the modeling methodology for a single ComStock measure scenario—Fan Static Pressure Reset for Multizone Variable Air Volume (VAV) Systems—and briefly introduces key results. The full public dataset can be accessed on the ComStock data lake or via the Data Viewer at comstock.nrel.gov. The public dataset enables users to create custom aggregations of results for their use case (e.g., filter to a specific county or building type).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗