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At least 271 records · Page 15
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Electric Utility Distribution Costs: Scoping Study on Trends, Drivers, and Possible Response Strategies [Slides]

This scoping study synthesizes information that will help stakeholders understand the scope, scale, and drivers of recent increases in investor-owned utility (IOU) expenditures on local distribution power grids, while providing regulators and other decision-makers with potential strategies to keep electricity bills down. The study includes five distinct components. Drawing first on data from FERC Form 1, it summarizes key trends in past and recent IOU distribution costs. Next, through a review of a sample of distribution-system plans, it characterizes material drivers of planned distribution expenditures. Ultimately, regulators must approve cost recovery for IOU expenditures, including those for the distribution system. The study therefore also: examines trends in utility requests and regulatory approvals related to changes in retail rates and return on equity; identifies areas where utility shareholder and customer incentives may be misaligned; and develops a menu of options that state regulators might consider to optimize distribution system expenditures. Some of the key findings include: - IOU distribution spending at a national level has grown by 6%/yr since 2014 in real dollar terms, 4x faster than in the prior 20 years and consisting mostly of capital (not operating) expenditure. - On a per-kWh basis, increases in IOU distribution costs since 2014 represent over 30% of the overall national-average increase in retail electricity rates. - Regional spending growth has ranged from 2-8%/yr, with larger estimated rate impacts in CAISO, then NYISO & ISO-NE, and then the Southeast, MISO & PJM (see figure). - Some utilities are planning for significantly increased distribution system spending. Planned spending on managing the existing system (asset replacement, safety & reliability, and resilience are all important drivers) exceeds that for capacity expansion. - IOU rate increase requests ($18 billion in 2025) and public utility commission (PUC) approval levels (average of 64% of requested amounts from 2021-2025) have recently hit multi-decadal highs. - PUCs in New England and the Southeast have recently approved a greater fraction of rate requests (>75%, on average) than in ther regions, while PUCs in California and the Southeast have generally authorized higher equity returns than in other regions. - Regulators have many tools to tackle potential misalignments between utility and customer interests and, more specifically, to optimize and reduce distribution costs. Shorter-term options include those related to return on equity, capital structure, depreciation, trackers, construction work in progress, and securitization. Longer-term options include performance-based regulation and a wide variety of planning-related requirements. All options embed important tradeoffs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainty-Guided Prediction Horizon of Phase-Resolved Ocean Wave Forecasting Under Data Sparsity: Experimental and Numerical Evaluation

Accurate short-term wave forecasting is critical for the safe and efficient operation of marine structures that rely on real-time, phase-resolved ocean wave information for control and monitoring purposes (e.g., digital twins). These systems often depend on environmental sensors (e.g., waverider buoys, wave-sensing LIDAR). Challenges arise when upstream sensor data are missing, sparse, or phase-shifted due to drift. This study investigates the performance of two machine learning models, time-series dense encoder (TiDE) and long short-term memory (LSTM), for forecasting phase-resolved ocean surface elevations under varying degrees of data degradation. We introduce the τ-trimming algorithm, which adapts the prediction horizon based on uncertainty thresholds derived from historical forecasts. Numerical wave tank (NWT) and wave basin experiments are used to benchmark model performance under short- and long-term data masking, spatially coarse sensor grids, and upstream phase shifts. Results show under a 50% probability of upstream data loss, the τ-trimmed TiDE model achieves a 46% reduction in error at the most upstream target, compared to 22% for LSTM. Furthermore, phase misalignment in upstream data introduces a near-linear increase in forecast error. Under moderate model settings, a ±3 s misalignment increases the mean absolute error by approximately 0.5 m, while the same error is accumulated at ±4 s using the more conservative approach. These findings inform the design of resilient, uncertainty-aware wave forecasting systems suited for realistic offshore sensing environments.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Revisiting the Architecture of the KOI-89 System

While high stellar obliquities observed in exoplanetary systems may be attributed to processes that tilt the planetary orbits, it is also possible that they reflect misalignments between protoplanetary disks and stellar spins. This latter hypothesis predicts the presence of coplanar multiplanetary systems misaligned with their central stars. Here we reevaluate the evidence of such an architecture that has been claimed for the KOI-89 system. An early-type star, KOI-89 has one validated transiting planet, KOI-89.01/Kepler-462b (period 84.7 days, radius 3.0 R {sub ⊕}), and one transiting planet candidate, KOI-89.02 (period 207.6 days, radius 4.0 R {sub ⊕}), where the latter exhibits transit timing variations (TTVs). A previous modeling of the stellar gravity-darkening effect in the transit light curves inferred a high stellar obliquity of ≈70°. We perform photodynamical modeling of the Kepler transit light curves and use the resulting constraints on the orbital configuration and transit times to update the gravity-darkened transit model. As a result, we find no firm evidence for the gravity-darkening effect in the transit shapes and conclude that stellar obliquity is not constrained by the data. Given the evidence for low orbital eccentricities from the dynamical analysis, the system architecture can thus be consistent with many other multitransiting systems with flat, near-circular orbits aligned with the stellar spin. We find that the TTVs imparted on its neighbor imply that KOI-89.01 has a mass ≳20 M {sub ⊕}. This would render it one of the densest known sub-Neptunes, mostly composed of a solid core. Lower masses are possible if the TTVs are instead due to an unseen third planet.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Long-period Jovian Tilts the Orbits of Two sub-Neptunes Relative to Stellar Spin Axis in Kepler-129

We present the discovery of Kepler-129 d (P{sub d}=7.2{sub -0.3}{sup +0.4} yr, msini{sub d}=8.3{sub -0.7}{sup +1.1} M{sub Jup}, e{sub d}=0.15{sub -0.05}{sup +0.07}) based on six years of radial-velocity observations from Keck/HIRES. Kepler-129 also hosts two transiting sub-Neptunes: Kepler-129 b (P {sub b} = 15.79 days, r {sub b} = 2.40 ± 0.04 R {sub ⊕}) and Kepler-129 c (P {sub c} = 82.20 days, r {sub c} = 2.52 ± 0.07 R {sub ⊕}) for which we measure masses of m {sub b} < 20 M {sub ⊕} and m{sub c}=43{sub -12}{sup +13} M{sub ⊕}. Kepler-129 is a hierarchical system consisting of two tightly packed inner planets and a massive external companion. In such a system, two inner planets precess around the orbital normal of the outer companion, causing their inclinations to oscillate with time. Based on an asteroseismic analysis of Kepler data, we find tentative evidence that Kepler-129 b and c are misaligned with stellar spin axis by ≳38°, which could be torqued by Kepler-129 d if it is inclined by ≳19° relative to inner planets. Using N-body simulations, we provide additional constraints on the mutual inclination between Kepler-129 d and inner planets by estimating the fraction of time during which two inner planets both transit. The probability that two planets both transit decreases as their misalignment with Kepler-129 d increases. We also find a more massive Kepler-129 c enables the two inner planets to become strongly coupled and more resistant to perturbations from Kepler-129 d. The unusually high mass of Kepler-129 c provides a valuable benchmark for both planetary dynamics and interior structure, since the best-fit mass is consistent with this 2.5 R {sub ⊕} planet having a rocky surface.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2022

Evidence for the Late Arrival of Hot Jupiters in Systems with High Host-star Obliquities

It has been shown that hot Jupiters systems with massive, hot stellar primaries exhibit a wide range of stellar obliquities. On the other hand, hot Jupiter systems with low-mass, cool primaries often have stellar obliquities close to zero. Efficient tidal interactions between hot Jupiters and the convective envelopes present in lower-mass main-sequence stars have been a popular explanation for these observations. If this explanation is accurate, then aligned systems should be older than misaligned systems. Likewise, the convective envelope mass of a hot Jupiter's host star should be an effective predictor of its obliquity. We derive homogeneous stellar parameters—including convective envelope masses—for hot Jupiter host stars with high-quality sky-projected obliquity inferences. Using a thin-disk stellar population's Galactic velocity dispersion as a relative age proxy, we find that hot Jupiter host stars with larger-than-median obliquities are older than hot Jupiter host stars with smaller-than-median obliquities. The relative age difference between the two populations is larger for hot Jupiter host stars with smaller-than-median fractional convective envelope masses and is significant at the 3.6σ level. We identify stellar mass, not convective envelope mass, as the best predictor of stellar obliquity in hot Jupiter systems. The best explanation for these observations is that many hot Jupiters in misaligned systems arrived in the close proximity of their host stars long after their parent protoplanetary disks dissipated. The dependence of observed age offset on convective envelope mass suggests that tidal realignment contributes to the population of aligned hot Jupiters orbiting stars with convective envelopes.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Radiation Transport Two-temperature GRMHD Simulations of Warped Accretion Disks

In many black hole (BH) systems, the accretion disk is expected to be misaligned with respect to the BH spin axis. If the scale height of the disk is much smaller than the misalignment angle, the spin of the BH can tear the disk into multiple, independently precessing "sub-disks." This is most likely to happen during outbursts in black hole X-Ray binaries (BHXRBs) and in active galactic nuclei (AGNs) accreting above a few percent of the Eddington limit, because the disk becomes razor-thin. Disk tearing has the potential to explain variability phenomena including quasi-periodic oscillations in BHXRBs and changing-look phenomena in AGNs. Here, we present the first radiative two-temperature general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic (GRMHD) simulation of a strongly tilted (65°) accretion disk around an M BH = 10 M ⊙ BH, which tears and precesses. This leads to luminosity swings between a few percent and 50% of the Eddington limit on sub-viscous timescales. Surprisingly, even where the disk is radiation-pressure-dominated, the accretion disk is thermally stable over t ≳ 14,000 r g /c. This suggests warps play an important role in stabilizing the disk against thermal collapse. The disk forms two nozzle shocks perpendicular to the line of nodes where the scale height of the disk decreases tenfold and the electron temperature reaches T e ~ 10 8 –10 9 K. In addition, optically thin gas crossing the tear between the inner and outer disk gets heated to T e ~ 108 K. This suggests that warped disks may emit a Comptonized spectrum that deviates substantially from idealized models.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Results from a wake-steering experiment at a commercial wind plant: investigating the wind speed dependence of wake-steering performance

Wake steering is a wind farm control strategy in which upstream wind turbines are misaligned with the wind to redirect their wakes away from downstream turbines, thereby increasing the net wind plant power production and reducing fatigue loads generated by wake turbulence. In this paper, we present results from a wake-steering experiment at a commercial wind plant involving two wind turbines spaced 3.7 rotor diameters apart. During the 3-month experiment period, we estimate that wake steering reduced wake losses by 5.6% for the wind direction sector investigated. After applying a long-term correction based on the site wind rose, the reduction in wake losses increases to 9.3%. As a function of wind speed, we find large energy improvements near cut-in wind speed, where wake steering can prevent the downstream wind turbine from shutting down. Yet for wind speeds between 6–8 m/s, we observe little change in performance with wake steering. However, wake steering was found to improve energy production significantly for below-rated wind speeds from 8–12 m/s. By measuring the relationship between yaw misalignment and power production using a nacelle lidar, we attribute much of the improvement in wake-steering performance at higher wind speeds to a significant reduction in the power loss of the upstream turbine as wind speed increases. Additionally, we find higher wind direction variability at lower wind speeds, which contributes to poor performance in the 6–8 m/s wind speed bin because of slow yaw controller dynamics. Further, we compare the measured performance of wake steering to predictions using the FLORIS (FLOw Redirection and Induction in Steady State) wind farm control tool coupled with a wind direction variability model. Although the achieved yaw offsets at the upstream wind turbine fall short of the intended yaw offsets, we find that they are predicted well by the wind direction variability model. When incorporating the expected yaw offsets, estimates of the energy improvement from wake steering using FLORIS closely match the experimental results.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Increased power gains from wake steering control using preview wind direction information

Abstract. Yaw controllers typically rely on measurements taken at the wind turbine, resulting in a slow reaction to wind direction changes and subsequent power losses due to misalignments. Delayed yaw action is especially problematic in wake steering operation because it can result in power losses when the yaw misalignment angle deviates from the intended one due to a changing wind direction. This study explores the use of preview wind direction information for wake steering control in a two-turbine setup with a wind speed in the partial load range. For these conditions and a simple yaw controller, results from an engineering model identify an optimum preview time of 90 s. These results are validated by forcing wind direction changes in a large-eddy simulation model. For a set of six simulations with large wind direction changes, the average power gain from wake steering increases from only 0.44 % to 1.32 %. For a second set of six simulations with smaller wind direction changes, the average power gain from wake steering increases from 1.24 % to 1.85 %. Low-frequency fluctuations are shown to have a larger impact on the performance of wake steering and the effectiveness of preview control, in particular, than high-frequency fluctuations. From these results, it is concluded that the benefit of preview wind direction control for wake steering is substantial, making it a topic worth pursuing in future work.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1962

NASA Scout ST-1 Flight-Test Results and Analyses, Launch Operations, and Test Vehicle Description

The first of a series of flight tests for the development of the four-stage, solid-propellant Scout vehicle was conducted at the NASA Wallops Station under the direction of the Langley Research Center. Vehicle designation for the test was NASA Scout ST-1. Performance characteristics of the vehicle and components were recorded during a high-altitude probe mission. Flight-simulation studies are presented and show that the accuracy of the guidance system during the flight was within control-system design specifications. The control system functioned normally during the flight with the exception of an overpowering of the reaction-control roll jets near burnout of the third-stage rocket motor. The resulting roll displacement of the vehicle is shown to have caused the monitor tracking radar which had been erroneously tracking a radar beacon in the vehicle on a side lobe to reorient to the major lobe of the receiving antenna. This tracking switch falsely indicated a violent turning maneuver on the monitor plot board and resulted in a hold-fire decision for the fourth-stage rocket motor. Although data for the final thrusting and coast phase of the flight were not obtained, the majority of the test objectives were achieved. In-flight thrust misalignment angles for the second- and third-stage rocket motors derived from control-system error data and for the first-stage motor determined from flight-simulation studies are presented. All rocket-motor thrust misalignment angles were well within the tolerances used for control-system design. Rocket-motor flight performance is presented, and velocity increments attained from the first three stages substantiated the predicted nominal performance. Operation of the rocket motors was satisfactory with the exception of high-level vibrations which were encountered during third-stage motor burning. Rolling moments which overpowered the reaction-control jets are also attributed to the burning characteristics of the third-stage motor. A discussion of the premature loss of the third-stage heat shield is given and shows that the heat-shield latching mechanism failed from pressure loads as the vehicle entered the transonic speed range. Although venting was provided to relieve the high negative pressures known to exist on the heat shield at these speeds, a field modification of the wiring tunnel had the same effect as opening the inside of the heat shield to ambient pressures. Consequently, the latching mechanism failed from pressure loads which were of about the same magnitude as the latching-mechanism yield loads. Skin temperatures were recorded at several locations on the vehicle and were generally in good agreement with theoretical values. Aerodynamic heating presented no problem during the flight since the maximum temperatures recorded during the flight were only about half the design values because of the high-launch-angle trajectory. Environmental vibrations recorded in the vicinity of the guidance package showed that no significant continuous amplitude levels above the general instrumentation noise level were present during first- and second-stage burning. Large vibration amplitudes were recorded during third-stage burning which coincided with the large roll disturbance experienced by the vehicle near burnout of the third-stage motor.

Scout Launch Vehicle↗
NASA NTRS1972

Apollo 15 mission report: Apollo 15 guidance, navigation, and control system performance analysis report (supplement 1)

This report contains the results of additional studies which were conducted to confirm the conclusions of the MSC Mission Report and contains analyses which were not completed in time to meet the mission report deadline. The LM IMU data were examined during the lunar descent and ascent phases. Most of the PGNCS descent absolute velocity error was caused by platform misalignments. PGNCS radial velocity divergence from AGS during the early part of descent was partially caused by PGNCS gravity computation differences from AGS. The remainder of the differences between PGNCS and AGS velocity were easily attributable to attitude reference alignment differences and tolerable instrument errors. For ascent the PGNCS radial velocity error at insertion was examined. The total error of 10.8 ft/sec was well within mission constraints but larger than expected. Of the total error, 2.30 ft/sec was PIPA bias error, which was suspected to exist pre-lunar liftoff. The remaining 8.5 ft/sec is most probably satisified with a large pre-liftoff planform misalignment.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1974

Mechanical coupling for high cyclic loading

One-piece cylindrical coupling with ""necked-down'' regions at each end form flexures allowing small misalignments between actuator and load. Coupling has zero backlash, low mass, close spacing between actuator and load, high stiffness in direction of motion, and allowance for misalignments and deflections without causing high side loading on components.

Dustin, M. O.↗
NASA NTRS1974

Steady-state and dynamic analysis of a jet engine, gas lubricated shaft seal

Dynamic response of a gas-lubricated, jet-engine main shaft seal was analytically established as a function of collar misalignment and secondary seal friction. Response was obtained by a forward integration-in-time (time-transient) scheme, which traces a time history of seal motions in all its degrees of freedom. Results were summarized in the form of a seal tracking map which indicated regions of acceptable collar misalignments and secondary seal friction. Methodology, results and interpretations are comprehensively described.

Shapiro, W.↗
NASA NTRS1974

Strain gauge ambiguity sensor for segmented mirror active optical system

A system is described to measure alignment between interfacing edges of mirror segments positioned to form a segmented mirror surface. It serves as a gauge having a bending beam with four piezoresistive elements coupled across the interfaces of the edges of adjacent mirror segments. The bending beam has a first position corresponding to alignment of the edges of adjacent mirror segments, and it is bendable from the first position in a direction and to a degree dependent upon the relative misalignment between the edges of adjacent mirror segments to correspondingly vary the resistance of the strain guage. A source of power and an amplifier are connected in circuit with the strain gauge whereby the output of the amplifier varies according to the misalignment of the edges of adjacent mirror segments.

Wyman, C. L.↗
NASA NTRS1976

Aeroheating model advancements featuring electroless metallic plating

Discussed are advancements in wind tunnel model construction methods and hypersonic test data demonstrating the methods. The general objective was to develop model fabrication methods for improved heat transfer measuring capability at less model cost. A plated slab model approach was evaluated with cast models containing constantan wires that formed single-wire-to-plate surface thermocouple junctions with a seamless skin of electroless nickel alloy. The surface of a space shuttle orbiter model was selectively plated with scaled tiles to simulate, with high fidelity, the probable misalignments of the heatshield tiles on a flight vehicle. Initial, Mach 8 heating results indicated a minor effect of tile misalignment roughness on boundary layer transition, implying a possible relaxation of heatshield manufacturing tolerances. Some loss of the plated tiles was experienced when the model was tested at high heating rates.

Stalmach, C. J., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1977

Effects of surface cooling and of roughness on the heating (including transition) to the windward plane-of-symmetry of the shuttle orbiter

The theoretical heat-transfer distributions are compared with experimental heat-transfer distributions obtained in Tunnel B at AEDC using a 0.0175 scale model of the space shuttle orbiter configuration for which the first 80% of the windward surface was roughened by a simulated tile misalignment. The theoretical solutions indicate that thinning the boundary layer by surface cooling increased the nondimensionalized value of the local heat-transfer coefficient. Tile misalignment did not significantly affect the heat-transfer rate in regions where the boundary layer was either laminar or turbulent.

Bertin, J. J.↗
NASA NTRS1975

Control and stability problems of remote orbital capture

The dynamics and control aspects of orbital capture of space objects were studied. Differential angular rates and orientation between the object and the grappler were used to investigate the effects of misalignment as well as stability and control. The control responses after capture are discussed. The feasibility of nulling combined spin and nutation of a typical satellite is demonstrated by a Lagrangian formulation to establish a baseline situation. A free-flying teleoperator (FFTO) with a dynamically unbalanced grappler is shown to be desirable because extremely adverse cyclic torques may be generated. A combined teleoperator-satellite system assuming misalignments during capture was dynamically analyzed. Related responses and stability evaluations are included.

Kaplan, M. H.↗
NASA NTRS1977

Elastic properties and fracture strength of quasi-isotropic graphite/epoxy composites

A research program is described which was devised to determine experimentally the elastic properties in tension and bending of quasi-isotropic laminates made from high-modulus graphite fiber and epoxy. Four laminate configurations were investigated, and determinations were made of the tensile modulus, Poisson's ratio, bending stiffness, fracture strength, and fracture strain. The measured properties are compared with those predicted by laminate theory, reasons for scatter in the experimental data are discussed, and the effect of fiber misalignment on predicted elastic tensile properties is examined. The results strongly suggest that fiber misalignment in combination with variation in fiber volume content is responsible for the scatter in both elastic constants and fracture strength.

Sullivan, T. L.↗
NASA NTRS1977

The linear Fresnel lens - Solar optical analysis of tracking error effects

Real sun-tracking solar concentrators imperfectly follow the solar disk, operationally sustaining both transverse and axial misalignments. This paper describes an analysis of the solar concentration performance of a line-focusing flat-base Fresnel lens in the presence of small transverse tracking errors. Simple optics and ray-tracing techniques are used to evaluate the lens solar transmittance and focal-plane imaging characteristics. Computer-generated example data for an f/1.0 lens indicate that less than a 1% transmittance degradation occurs for transverse errors up to 2.5 deg. In this range, solar-image profiles shift laterally in the focal plane, the peak concentration ratio drops, and profile asymmetry increases with tracking error. With profile shift as the primary factor, the ninety-percent target-intercept width increases rapidly for small misalignments, e.g., almost threefold for a 1-deg error. The analytical model and computational results provide a design base for tracking and absorber systems for the linear-Fresnel-lens solar concentrator.

Cosby, R. M.↗