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At least 271 records · Page 15
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Correlations of baryon and charge stopping in heavy ion collisions*

Baryon numbers are theorized to be carried by valence quarks in the standard QCD picture of the baryon structure. Another theory proposed an alternative baryon number carrier, a non-perturbative Y-shaped configuration of the gluon field, called the baryon junction in the 1970s. However, neither of these theories has been verified experimentally. Recently, searching for the baryon junction by investigating the correlation of net-charge and net-baryon yields at midrapidity in heavy-ion collisions has been suggested. Here, this paper presents studies of such correlations in collisions of various heavy ions from oxygen to uranium with the UrQMD Monte Carlo model. The UrQMD model implements valence quark transport as the primary means of charge and baryon stopping at midrapidity. Detailed studies are also conducted for isobaric $_{40}^{96}{\rm{Zr}}$ + $_{40}^{96}{\rm{Zr}}$ and $_{44}^{96}{\rm{Ru}}$ + $_{44}^{96}{\rm{Ru}}$ collisions. We found a universal trend of charge stopping with respect to baryon stopping and discovered that the charge stopping is always greater than the baryon stopping. This study provides a model baseline in valence quark transport for what is expected in net-charge and net-baryon yields at the midrapidity of relativistic heavy-ion collisions.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Thermal Response of a Lithium Vapor Divertor to Cyclical Operation

The lithium vapor divertor concept is being developed as a method to achieve detached divertor conditions in a tokamak while minimizing impurity radiation losses from the core plasma. SOLPS-ITER modeling has previously been used to identify some of the geometric constraints and required lithium evaporation rate of a lithium vapor divertor in a medium-sized tokamak during steady-state operation. Here an updated conceptual design based on these operating requirements is introduced and the thermal response of the system is modeled during cyclical operation, consistent with operation in a short-pulse tokamak. Controllability of the temperature of the lithium capillary porous system (CPS) is achieved by adopting a design where there is no line-of-sight for radiation from the plasma to reach the heated CPS surface. Operational strategies to minimize the amount of lithium evaporated between plasma discharges while achieving steady evaporation rates during plasma discharges are discussed and modeled here. The optimal feedforward control strategy demonstrated in this work is to ramp up the temperature of the evaporator as quickly as possible immediately before a plasma discharge and then reduce the heating to match the desired steady-state net evaporation rate just before the plasma discharge begins, allowing the thermal inertia of the system to stabilize the evaporation rate during the first second of the plasma discharge.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Impact of climate change on water availability and its propagation through the Western U.S. power grid

Climate impact assessment for power systems has tended to focus on the effects of water availability on generation without explicitly considering how these impacts propagate through the interconnected grid to affect generation in other locations. We investigate the impact of projected water availability on the operations of the contemporary Western U.S. power grid, focusing specifically on regional interdependencies. Hydrologic simulations derived from three GCMs (CCSM4, INMCM4 and GFDL-CM3) and two radiative scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) are used to force a large-scale, distributed water management model (MOSART-WM), which translates water availability into power generation constraints at hydropower plants and water-dependent thermo-electric plants. Power system dynamics are evaluated using the production cost model PLEXOS. We find that the inter-regional connections across the Western U.S. electricity infrastructure are key in managing drastic variations in regional water availability. Net generation in the Northwest and Northern California is substantially sensitive to local water availability. Generation from the Desert Southwest emerges as a critical resource to compensate for variations in water availability in those regions. Climate change impacts on Northwestern water availability therefore drive future changes in other regions’ generation and regional power flows. The large inter-annual hydrological variability of Northern California exacerbates grid stress arising from long-term changes in water availability in the Northwest. While the regional power flow directions seem insensitive to long-term variations in water availability, the analysis highlights the need to consider other compounding regional factors such as changes in Southern California net load or changes in regional fuel prices.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2023

EvoEMD: Cosmic evolution with an early matter-dominated era

In this work, we present EvoEMD, a framework to calculate the evolution of cosmic relics in a Universe with an early matter-dominated (EMD) era. There are mainly two aspects to consider in this regard. First, an EMD era changes the Hubble expansion rate with respect to the standard radiation-dominated (RD) universe. Second, when the EMD era ends, the out-of-equilibrium decay of the dominant matter component may reheat the thermal bath and dilute cosmic relics. We briefly introduce the cosmology with an EMD era, and present how it is implemented in the EvoEMD framework. Users can study the coupled evolution of different interacting species in an EMD or RD universe. Two important cosmic relics are dark matter and a net lepton number. In order to show the capabilities of EvoEMD, we include simple examples of dark matter produced via freeze-out and freeze-in, and also of leptogenesis. Moreover, users can modify the model files in order to explore different new physics scenarios. EvoEMD is hosted on Github at https://github.com/ycwu1030/EvoEMD.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Unsupervised Learning for Improved Gamma-Ray Spectrometry in Pixelated Cadmium Zinc Telluride (CZT) Detectors

Machine learning has been found to be ubiquitously useful across many industries, presenting an opportunity to improve radiation detection performance using data-driven algorithms. Improved detector resolution can aid in the detection, identification, and quantification of radionuclides. Here, in this work, a novel, data-driven, unsupervised learning approach is developed to improve detector spectral characteristics by learning, and subsequently rejecting, poorly performing regions of the pixelated detector. Feature engineering is used to fit individual characteristic photo peaks to a Doniach lineshape with a linear background model. Then, principal component analysis is used to learn a lower-dimension latent space representation of each photo peak where the pixels are clustered, and subsequently ranked, based on the cluster mean distance to an optimal point. Pixels within the worst cluster(s) are rejected to improve the full-width at half-maximum (FWHM) by 10% to 15% (relative to the bulk detector) at 50% net efficiency when applied to training data obtained from measurements of a 100 μCi 154 Eu source using a H3D M400i pixelated cadmium zinc telluride detector. These results compare well with, but do not outperform, a greedy algorithm that accumulates pixels in order of FWHM from lowest to highest used as a benchmark. In the future, this approach can be extended to include the detector energy and angular response. Finally, the model is applied to newly seen natural and enriched uranium spectra relevant for nuclear safeguards applications.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2021

Techno-Economic Analysis of a Concentrating Solar Power Plant Using Redox-Active Metal Oxides as Heat Transfer Fluid and Storage Media

We present results for a one-dimensional quasi-steady-state thermodynamic model developed for a 111.7 MW e concentrating solar power (CSP) system using a redox-active metal oxide as the heat storage media and heat transfer agent integrated with a combined cycle air Brayton power block. In the energy charging and discharging processes, the metal oxide CaAl 0.2 Mn 0.8 O 2.9-δ (CAM28) undergoes a reversible, high temperature redox cycle including an endothermic oxygen-releasing reaction and exothermic oxygen-incorporation reaction. Concentrated solar radiation heats the redox-active oxide particles under partial vacuum to drive the reduction extent deeper for increased energy density at a fixed temperature, thereby increasing storage capacity while limiting the required on sun temperature. Direct counter-current contact of the reduced particles with compressed air from the Brayton compressor releases stored chemical and sensible energy, heating the air to 1,200°C at the turbine inlet while cooling and reoxidizing the particles. The cool oxidized particles recirculate through the solar receiver subsystem for another cycle of heating and reduction (oxygen release). We applied the techno-economic model to 1) size components, 2) examine intraday operation with varying solar insolation, 3) estimate annual performance characteristics over a simulated year, 4) estimate the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE), and 5) perform sensitivity analyses to evaluate factors that affect performance and cost. Simulations use hourly solar radiation data from Barstow, California to assess the performance of a 111.7 MW e system with solar multiples (SMs) varying from 1.2 to 2.4 and storage capacities of 6–14 h. The baseline system with 6 h storage and SM of 1.8 has a capacity factor of 54.2%, an increase from 32.3% capacity factor with no storage, and an average annual energy efficiency of 20.6%. Calculations show a system with an output of 710 GWh e net electricity per year, 12 h storage, and SM of 2.4 to have an installed cost of $329 million, and an LCOE of 5.98 ¢/kWh e . This value meets the U.S. Department of Energy’s SunShot 2020 target of 6.0 ¢/kWh e ( U. S Department of Energy, 2012 ), but falls just shy of the 5.0 ¢/kWh e 2030 CSP target for dispatchable electricity ( U. S Department of Energy, 2017 ). The cost and performance results are minimally sensitive to most design parameters. However, a one-point change in the weighted annual cost of capital from 8 to 7% (better understood as a 12.5% change) translates directly to an 11% decrease (0.66 ¢/kWhe) in the LCOE.

Gorman, Brandon T.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Tracing baryon and electric charge transport in isobar collisions

It is of fundamental interest to understand the carrier of conserved quantum charges within protons and nuclei at high energy. Preliminary data from isobar collisions at RHIC reveal a scaled net-baryon to net-electric charge ratio (B/ΔQ × ΔZ/A) at midrapidity between 1.2 and 2, consistent with string junction model predictions. Here, we compute the initial stage scaled net baryon to net-electric charge ratio for isobar collisions. Our model incorporates a realization of the string junction model and models the nuclear structure. Our predictions identify the baseline expectations for such measurement and quantify the impact of the nuclear structure.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Global Dust Cycle and Direct Radiative Effect in E3SM Version 1: Impact of Increasing Model Resolution

Quantification of dust aerosols in Earth System Models (ESMs) has important implications for water cycle and biogeochemistry studies. This study examines the global life cycle and direct radiative effects (DREs) of dust in the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 (E3SMv1), and the impact of increasing model resolution both horizontally and vertically. The default 1° E3SMv1 captures the spatial and temporal variability in the observed dust aerosol optical depth (DAOD) reasonably well, but overpredicts dust absorption in the shortwave (SW). Simulations underestimate the dust vertical and long-range transport, compared with the satellite dust extinction profiles. After updating dust refractive indices and correcting for a bias in partitioning size-segregated emissions, both SW cooling and longwave (LW) warming of dust simulated by E3SMv1 are increased and agree better with other recent studies. The estimated net dust DRE of –0.42 Wm –2 represents a stronger cooling effect than the observationally based estimate –0.2 Wm –2 (–0.48 to +0.2), due to a smaller LW warming. Constrained by a global mean DAOD, model sensitivity studies of increasing horizontal and vertical resolution show strong influences on the simulated global dust burden and lifetime primarily through the change of dust dry deposition rate; there are also remarkable differences in simulated spatial distributions of DAOD, DRE, and deposition fluxes. Thus, constraining the global DAOD is insufficient for accurate representation of dust climate effects, especially in transitioning to higher- or variable-resolution ESMs. Better observational constraints of dust vertical profiles, dry deposition, size, and LW properties are needed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

LDRD Abbreviated report: High-Order General-Discrete-Ordinates Method Enabling Efficient Deterministic Transport in Hydrodynamic Simulations

Deterministic transport simulations for national-security and energy applications often operate in high-dimensional phase-space, where accuracy and cost both become major challenges. A common numerical artifact in such problems is the “ray-effect,” which appears as unphysical streaks. Beyond misinterpretation, these artifacts can contaminate tightly coupled physics, such as fluid dynamics, radiation-hydrodynamics, and laser-plasma interactions, eroding the predictive capability of entire multiphysics workflows. Our objective was to make high-dimension studies practical on modern hardware while mitigating the ray-effect without relying on prohibitively expensive sampling approaches such as Monte Carlo methods. We developed the Generic Discretization Library (GenDiL), a Graphics Processing Unit (GPU)-first framework that uses high-order Discontinuous Galerkin (DG) methods and matrix-free algorithms to reduce memory usage and improve computational efficiency, critical for phase-space simulations. GenDiL supports phase-space adaptivity in both mesh size and polynomial order (hp-adaptivity) to place resolution only where it is needed. A central capability is Local Dimensional Refinement (LDR), which couples lower-dimension continuum models to higher-dimension kinetic models through stable and conservative interfaces, so that high-fidelity physics is applied only in regions where it is essential. Building on the GenDiL framework, we developed the General SN (GSN) family of algorithms as a true generalization of the polar SN approach (discrete ordinates, often denoted SN). Rather than tying discrete ordinates to a specific polar change of coordinates, GSN formulates transport on an arbitrary change of coordinates chosen to reduce ray-effect. We studied two complementary variants: an analytic variant, where the coordinate map is prescribed in advance by a closed-form function; and a data-driven variant, where a quantity of interest, such as the net flux, guides the coordinate system. GenDiL provides the library infrastructure for efficient GPU execution, but the GSN concept is algorithmic and independent of any one library. Across representative high-dimension tests, including non-symmetric solutions, both variants delivered strong ray-effect mitigation at practical cost, moving four- to six-dimensional analysis toward repeatable, routine studies.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

3D modeling of the Staged Z-pinch with the FLASH code

The Staged Z-pinch (SZP) fusion concept is a magneto-inertial compression scheme developed by Magneto-Inertial Fusion Technologies, Inc. (MIFTI), in which small amounts of fusion fuel are brought to fusion-relevant conditions by passing multi-million amperes strong current through a cylindrical shell of high atomic number material. One- and two-dimensional modeling performed by MIFTI with the MACH2 code, suggests that net fusion energy gain can be achieved when currents in the 10 million amperes range compress a 50%-50% mixture of deuterium and tritium gas. In this project we enhance and use the FLASH code to execute high-fidelity, simulations of various SZP configurations, a collaboration between the Flash Center for Computational Science at the University of Rochester and the Laboratory for Laser Energetics, and MIFTI. FLASH is a high-performance computing, multi-physics, radiation magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) code with extended physics capabilities, which is developed at the Flash Center. The goal of this project is to assess the shell/fuel stability of the pinch to two- and three-dimensional MHD instabilities and to utilize FLASH’s extended physics capabilities to understand how extended-MHD effects impact implosion dynamics and plasma conditions at stagnation. The project is a natural extension of an ongoing collaborative effort between MIFTI and the Flash Center through the U.S. DOE Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy (ARPA-E) BETHE program and can provide MIFTI with simulation capabilities that are currently beyond their reach with MACH2. Ultimately, MIFTI wants FLASH to become one of their simulation workhorses for reliable, high-fidelity SZP platform design. During the project, the Flash Center team developed a suite of in one- and two-dimensional FLASH simulations to model different variants of the SZP platform, performed code-to-code comparisons with MACH2, and used the FLASH code to design and model SZP experiments like the Double Eagle experiments that MIFTI recently performed. Also, the Flash Center team developed the capabilities of FLASH to be able to do three-dimensional simulations of pulsed-power experiments with the code for the first time. Two publications from this effort are currently under review and two more are in preparation. MIFTI has also committed to the use of FLASH for future SZP simulation efforts.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Surface Energy Balance System (SEBS) Instrument Handbook

A surface energy balance system (SEBS) has been installed collocated with each deployed eddy correlation flux measurement system (ECOR) after 2010 at the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) User Facility Southern Great Plains (SGP) observatory, North Slope of Alaska (NSA) observatory, Eastern North Atlantic (ENA) observatory, and the first, second, and third ARM Mobile Facilities (AMF1, AMF2, AMF3). A SEBS was also deployed at the Tropical Western Pacific (TWP) site, before it was decommissioned. Data from these sites, including the retired TWP, are available in the ARM Data Center. The SEBS consists of upwelling and downwelling solar and infrared radiometers within one net radiometer, a wetness sensor, and soil temperature, soil moisture, and soil heat flow measurements. The SEBS measurements allow the comparison of ECOR sensible and latent heat fluxes with the energy balance determined from the SEBS and provide information on wetting of the sensors for data quality purposes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Time dependent model for non-inductive ECH X-I current ramp-up for SHPD tokamak facility

Non-inductive (NI) plasma current start-up and ramp-up is an important research topic for spherical tokamak (ST) based reactors and fusion pilot plant (FPP). For a compact FPP, the OH flux availability is highly restricted due to its compact geometry. Efficient fundamental extraordinary mode (X-I) electron cyclotron heating (ECH) current start-up and ramp-up regime was identified for a reactor-like high toroidal magnetic field range which has more than a hundred times higher current drive efficiency compared to more conventional ECH methods for the relevant start-up temperature range. High current drive efficiency is possible due to the strong X-I fundamental ECH interaction only with unidirectional passing electrons constrained by the wave accessibility conditions. Here, we extend the X-I electron cyclotron current drive (ECCD) investigation to a time dependent model to simulate the non-inductive current ramp-up to 10 MA for the Sustained High-Power Density (SHPD) facility. As the X-I ECCD driven current I EC rises, due to the back EMF driven negative current, the net plasma current Ip rises more slowly with the current resistive time scale. For tokamak confinement time (both L-mode and H-Mode) which tends to rise with I p , a positive feedback results and even with constant applied ECH power, T e0 , I EC , and I p can continue to rise to very high values. However, in a realistic situation, the T e0 rise should saturate due to a number of factors such as enhanced core radiation and increased power loss at high temperature. To simulate this effect, we adopt a maximum T e0 model which would limit the temperature rise to certain T e0 . With this model, we investigated the current ramp-up for various ECH power levels and the maximum T e0 of 15, 20, and 25 keV. We find that while the power required is reduced with increasing T e0 limit due to increased current drive efficiency, the time to reach 10 MA tends to go up due to the reduced plasma resistivity for the higher T e0 limit. We also find for a given Te0 limit, the time to reach 10 MA tends to be reduced by increasing the applied ECH power by over driving the current ramp-up where I EC is driven at significantly higher level than 10 MA. While the current ramp-up time may not be an issue for the steady-state reactor systems, if it is desirable to minimize the current ramp-up time, it is prudent to have a sufficient ECH power for current over-drive and have some T e0 limiting tools such as impurity seeding for enhanced radiation. In conclusion, a well-controlled NI ECH start-up also has a potential of improving the tokamak start-up reliability and avoid run-away electrons while the NI off-axis current drive could enhance MHD stability and plasma performance improvements.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Isotope effects and Alfvén eigenmode stability in JET H, D, T, DT, and He plasmas

While much about Alfvén eigenmode (AE) stability has been explored in previous and current tokamaks, open questions remain for future burning plasma experiments, especially regarding exact stability threshold conditions and related isotope effects; the latter, of course, requiring good knowledge of the plasma ion composition. In the JET tokamak, eight in-vessel antennas actively excite stable AEs, from which their frequencies, toroidal mode numbers, and net damping rates are assessed. The effective ion mass can also be inferred using measurements of the plasma density and magnetic geometry. Thousands of AE stability measurements have been collected by the Alfvén Eigenmode Active Diagnostic in hundreds of JET plasmas during the recent Hydrogen, Deuterium, Tritium, DT, and Helium-4 campaigns. In this novel AE stability database, spanning all four main ion species, damping is observed to decrease with increasing Hydrogenic mass, but increase for Helium, a trend consistent with radiative damping as the dominant damping mechanism. These data are important for confident predictions of AE stability in both non-nuclear (H/He) and nuclear (D/T) operations in future devices. In particular, if radiative damping plays a significant role in overall stability, some AEs could be more easily destabilized in D/T plasmas than their H/He reference pulses, even before considering fast ion and alpha particle drive. Active MHD spectroscopy is also employed on select HD, HT, and DT plasmas to infer the effective ion mass, thereby closing the loop on isotope analysis and demonstrating a complementary method to typical diagnosis of the isotope ratio.

Alfvén eigenmodes↗
DOE OSTI2023

Analysis of an Arctic cold air outbreak during autumn and related air mass transformations forced by surface changes and advection in higher altitudes

During marine cold air outbreaks (MCAOs), cold and dry Arctic air masses are transported from the central Arctic southward across the closed sea ice and much warmer open oceans. They experience significant transformations including a rapid heating and moistening, often leading to cloud formation. While intense wintertime MCAOs have been analyzed widely, the air mass transformations during other seasons have been studied sparsely. We address this gap by investigating an MCAO case observed in September 2020. To study the transformation processes, we combine the fifth generation of atmospheric reanalyses of the global climate (ERA5), trajectory calculations, as well as shipborne and airborne measurements. In the central Arctic, observations acquired from aboard the research vessel (RV) Polarstern during the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition characterized the initial state of the air mass over closed sea ice. Trajectories indicated the pathway the air mass took from RV Polarstern southward to the Fram Strait. For the first 24 h of the southbound drift, the air masses remained quasi-stationary. Then, still 15 h ahead of the marginal sea ice zone, differential advection across the boundary layer flow introduced humidity and clouds at higher altitudes between 1.5 and 2.5 km. ERA5-derived temperature and humidity tendencies indicated complex vertical interactions. Radiative cloud-top cooling, entrainment, and turbulence were significantly reduced in the lower and enhanced in the upper advected cloud layer. Eventually, the lower cloud deck dissipated. After this confluence of 2 different air masses, observations gathered by Polar 5 in Fram Strait as part of the MOSAiC Airborne observations in the Central Arctic campaign revealed cloudy, moist layers throughout the lowest 3.5 km and an increasing boundary layer height. Comparing the initial with the final state 48 h later, the largest net heating of +8 K was found close to the surface, yet the largest net moistening of +2.5 g kg -1 at an altitude of 1 km, as the initial profile was exceptionally dry here. We conclude that the observed air mass transformations were driven by the surface changes from sea ice to open ocean but additionally strongly impacted by the differential advection of clouds and moisture across the near-surface MCAO flow.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Advanced Reactors Integrated Energy System: Thermal Energy Storage Island Design

The main topic of this research is integrated energy systems (IES) designed for pairing industrial thermal energy loads with advanced reactors (ARs). The Idaho National Laboratory (INL) Crosscutting Technology Development IES program and the National Reactor Innovation Center (NRIC) are seeking to develop, design, and construct an AR-IES demonstration platform that couples the thermal output from an AR operating at the INL/NRIC Demonstration of Microreactor Experiments (DOME) test bed in the Experimental Breeder II dome to a variable capacity load emulator (i.e., air-cooled radiator) and sensible thermal energy storage (TES) via a molten salt thermal energy transfer fluid. In the rapidly evolving landscape of energy supply and distribution, flexibility has emerged as a prized attribute, surpassing the traditional notions of stability and baseload generation capability. This shift in priorities is particularly evident in the context of nuclear power plants (NPPs), where adaptability over constant output is becoming more important. As our energy infrastructure and resources embraces the rise of distributed energy generation, the inherent variability in net demand continues to grow. Moreover, the use of nuclear energy as a source of heat for decarbonizing the industrial sector is becoming a very pressing topic. In such environment, advanced NPPs are poised to enter a more competitive energy market, delivering both, flexible electricity and heat. This shift motivates the exploration of TES systems, designed to empower NPPs with nimble responsiveness to market fluctuations, flexible heat delivery capabilities, and redefine their role in the energy field. TES systems offer the unique advantage of storing nuclear energy in its original form as heat, thereby affording unparalleled flexibility in its subsequent utilization.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Non‐Linear Dimensionality Reduction With a Variational Encoder Decoder to Understand Convective Processes in Climate Models

Abstract Deep learning can accurately represent sub‐grid‐scale convective processes in climate models, learning from high resolution simulations. However, deep learning methods usually lack interpretability due to large internal dimensionality, resulting in reduced trustworthiness in these methods. Here, we use Variational Encoder Decoder structures (VED), a non‐linear dimensionality reduction technique, to learn and understand convective processes in an aquaplanet superparameterized climate model simulation, where deep convective processes are simulated explicitly. We show that similar to previous deep learning studies based on feed‐forward neural nets, the VED is capable of learning and accurately reproducing convective processes. In contrast to past work, we show this can be achieved by compressing the original information into only five latent nodes. As a result, the VED can be used to understand convective processes and delineate modes of convection through the exploration of its latent dimensions. A close investigation of the latent space enables the identification of different convective regimes: (a) stable conditions are clearly distinguished from deep convection with low outgoing longwave radiation and strong precipitation; (b) high optically thin cirrus‐like clouds are separated from low optically thick cumulus clouds; and (c) shallow convective processes are associated with large‐scale moisture content and surface diabatic heating. Our results demonstrate that VEDs can accurately represent convective processes in climate models, while enabling interpretability and better understanding of sub‐grid‐scale physical processes, paving the way to increasingly interpretable machine learning parameterizations with promising generative properties.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Quantifying Carbon Cycle Extremes and Attributing Their Causes Under Climate and Land Use and Land Cover Change From 1850 to 2300

The increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) mole fraction affects global climate through radiative (trapping longwave radiation) and physiological effects (reduction of plant transpiration). We use the simulations of the Community Earth System Model (CESM1-BGC) forced with Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 to investigate climate-vegetation feedbacks from 1850 to the year 2300. Human-induced land use and land cover change (LULCC), through biogeochemical and biogeophysical processes, alter the climate and modify photosynthetic activity. The changing characteristics of extreme anomalies in photosynthesis, referred to as carbon cycle extremes, increase the uncertainty of terrestrial ecosystems to act as a net carbon sink. However, the role of LULCC in altering carbon cycle extremes under business-as-usual (continuously rising) CO 2 emissions is unknown. Here we show that LULCC magnifies the intensity, frequency, and extent of carbon cycle extremes, resulting in a net reduction in expected photosynthetic activity in the future. We found that large temporally contiguous negative carbon cycle extremes are due to a persistent decrease in soil moisture, which is triggered by declines in precipitation. With LULCC and global warming, vegetation exhibits increased vulnerability to hot and dry environmental conditions, increasing the frequency of fire events and resulting in considerable losses in photosynthetic activity. While most regions show strengthening of negative carbon cycle extremes, a few locations show a weakening effect driven by declining vegetation cover or benign climate conditions for photosynthesis. Increasing hot, dry, and fire-driven carbon cycle extremes are essential for improving carbon cycle modeling and estimation of ecosystem responses to LULCC and rising CO 2 mole fractions. Moreover, large aberrations in vegetation productivity represent potential and growing threats to human lives, wildlife, and food security.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗