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As oceans cover over 70% of the planet’s surface, they represent a large reservoir of resources that remained vastly untapped. Uncrewed Underwater Vehicles (UUVs) are becoming key technology for ocean exploration. Ocean thermal gradient is a permanent and reliable energy source that can be used to power UUVs using phase change material (PCM)-based thermal engines. However, the main drawback of this technology is its low conversion efficiency. When using PCM-based thermal engines to power UUVs, there are different energy conversion stages, thermal-hydraulic, hydraulic-kinetic, kinetic-electrical, dependent of a wide variety of parameters. Thus, optimization of the overall energy conversion is still a challenge for powering the increasing energy demanding UUVs for long missions. The goal of this study is to propose a PCM-based ocean thermal energy harvesting system for powering the Solo II float. Using the ocean thermal energy reduces the cost for battery replacement and expands the float’s mission time. For this purpose, we developed a multiphysics model for a system consisting of thermal material, hydraulic, and electrical systems. This system is designed to provide the electrical power needed for the instruments aboard the underwater vehicle. The models of the hydraulic and the electric systems are implemented in MATLAB-Simulink/Simscape environment. The final model developed can provide 13.66 kJ of electrical energy, which is more than 1.5 times the energy requirement per cycle for the SOLO II float.
Abstract. Antarctic ice shelves are vulnerable to warming ocean temperatures, and some have already begun thinning in response to increased basal melt rates. Sea level is therefore expected to rise due to Antarctic contributions, but uncertainties in its amount and timing remain largely unquantified. In particular, there is substantial uncertainty in future basal melt rates arising from multi-model differences in thermal forcing and how melt rates depend on that thermal forcing. To facilitate uncertainty quantification in sea level rise projections, we build, validate, and demonstrate projections from a computationally efficient statistical emulator of a high-resolution (4 km) Antarctic ice sheet model, the Community Ice Sheet Model version 2.1. The emulator is trained to a large (500-member) ensemble of 200-year-long 4 km resolution transient ice sheet simulations, whereby regional basal melt rates are perturbed by idealized (yet physically informed) trajectories. The main advantage of our emulation approach is that by sampling a wide range of possible basal melt trajectories, the emulator can be used to (1) produce probabilistic sea level rise projections over much larger Monte Carlo ensembles than are possible by direct numerical simulation alone, thereby providing better statistical characterization of uncertainties, and (2) predict the simulated ice sheet response under differing assumptions about basal melt characteristics as new oceanographic studies are published, without having to run additional numerical ice sheet simulations. As a proof of concept, we propagate uncertainties about future basal melt rate trajectories, derived from regional ocean models, to generate probabilistic sea level rise estimates for 100 and 200 years into the future.
The changes or updates in ocean biogeochemistry component have been mapped between CMIP5 and CMIP6 model versions, and an assessment made of how far these have led to improvements in the simulated mean state of marine biogeochemical models within the current generation of Earth system models (ESMs). The representation of marine biogeochemistry has progressed within the current generation of Earth system models. However, it remains difficult to identify which model updates are responsible for a given improvement. In addition, the full potential of marine biogeochemistry in terms of Earth system interactions and climate feedback remains poorly examined in the current generation of Earth system models. Increasing availability of ocean biogeochemical data, as well as an improved understanding of the underlying processes, allows advances in the marine biogeochemical components of the current generation of ESMs. The present study scrutinizes the extent to which marine biogeochemistry components of ESMs have progressed between the 5th and the 6th phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP).
Abstract The presence of clouds in the Arctic regulates the surface energy budget (SEB) over the sea‐ice surface and the ice‐free ocean. Following several previous field campaigns, the cloud‐radiation relationship, including cloud vertical structure and phase, has been elucidated; however, modeling of this relationship has matured slowly. In recognition of the recent decline in the Arctic sea‐ice extent, representation of the cloud system in numerical models should consider the effects of areas covered by sea ice and ice‐free areas. Using an in situ stationary meteorological observation data set obtained over the ice‐free Arctic Ocean by the Japanese Research Vessel Mirai (September 2014), coordinated evaluation of six regional climate models (RCMs) with nine model runs was performed by focusing on clouds and the SEB. The most remarkable findings were as follows: (1) reduced occurrence of unstable stratification with low‐level cloud water in all models in comparison to the observations, (2) significant differences in cloud water representations between single‐ and double‐moment cloud schemes, (3) extensive differences in partitioning of hydrometeors including solid/liquid precipitation, and (4) pronounced lower‐tropospheric air temperature biases. These issues are considered as the main sources of SEB uncertainty over ice‐free areas of the Arctic Ocean. The results from a coupled RCM imply that the SEB is constrained by both the atmosphere and the ocean (and sea ice) with considerable feedback. Coordinated improvement of both stand‐alone atmospheric and coupled RCMs would promote a more comprehensive and improved understanding of the Arctic air‐ice‐sea coupled system.
Abstract This study investigates the representation of ocean convection in the Labrador Sea in seven Earth System Models (ESMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and 6 datasets. The relative role of the oceanic and atmospheric biases in the subpolar North Atlantic gyre are explored using regional ocean simulations where the atmospheric forcing or the ocean initial and boundary conditions are replaced by reanalysis data in the absence of interactive air-sea coupling. Commonalities and differences among model behaviors are discussed with the objective of finding a pathway forward to improve the representation of the ocean mean state and variability in a region of fundamental importance for climate variability and change. Results highlight that an improved representation of ocean stratification in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre is urgently needed to constrain future climate change projections. While improving the ocean model resolution in the North Atlantic alone may contribute a better representation of both boundary currents and propagation of heat and freshwater anomalies into the Labrador Sea, it may not be sufficient. Addressing the atmospheric heat flux bias with better resolution in the atmosphere and land topography may allow for deep convection to occur in the Labrador Sea in some of the models that miss it entirely, but the greatest priority remains improving the representation of ocean stratification.
Abstract We present the formulation and optimization of a Runge–Kutta-type time-stepping scheme for solving the shallow-water equations, aimed at substantially increasing the effective allowable time step over that of comparable methods. This scheme, called FB-RK(3,2), uses weighted forward–backward averaging of thickness data to advance the momentum equation. The weights for this averaging are chosen with an optimization process that employs a von Neumann–type analysis, ensuring that the weights maximize the admittable Courant number. Through a simplified local truncation error analysis and numerical experiments, we show that the method is at least second-order in time for any choice of weights and exhibits low dispersion and dissipation errors for well-resolved waves. Further, we show that an optimized FB-RK(3,2) can take time steps up to 2.8 times as large as a popular three-stage, third-order strong stability-preserving Runge–Kutta method in a quasi-linear test case. In fully nonlinear shallow-water test cases relevant to oceanic and atmospheric flows, FB-RK(3,2) outperforms SSPRK3 in admittable time step by factors roughly between 1.6 and 2.2, making the scheme approximately twice as computationally efficient with little to no effect on solution quality. Significance Statement The purpose of this work is to develop and optimize time-stepping schemes for models relevant to oceanic and atmospheric flows. Specifically, for the shallow-water equations we optimize for schemes that can take time steps as large as possible while retaining solution quality. We find that our optimized schemes can take time steps between 1.6 and 2.2 times larger than schemes that cost the same number of floating point operations, translating directly to a corresponding speedup. Our ultimate goal is to use these schemes in climate-scale simulations.
Global storm resolving models (GSRMs) represent the next generation of global climate models. One of them is a 5-km Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic Weather and Climate Model (ICON). Its high resolution means that parameterizations of convection and clouds, including subgrid-scale clouds, are omitted, relying on explicit simulation but necessarily utilizing microphysics and turbulence parameterizations. Standard-resolution (10–100 km) models, which use convection and cloud parameterizations, have substantial cloud biases over the Southern Ocean (SO), adversely affecting radiation and sea surface temperature. The SO is dominated by low clouds, which cannot be observed accurately from space due to overlapping clouds, attenuation, and ground clutter. We evaluated SO clouds in ICON and the ERA5 and MERRA-2 reanalyzes using approximately 2400 days of lidar observations and 2300 radiosonde profiles from 31 voyages and a Macquarie Island station during 2010–2021, compared to the model and reanalyzes using a ground-based lidar simulator. We found that ICON and the reanalyzes underestimate the total cloud fraction by about 10% and 20%, respectively. ICON and ERA5 overestimate the cloud occurrence peak at about 500 m, associated with underestimated lower tropospheric stability and overestimated lifting condensation level. The reanalyzes strongly underestimate fog and very low-level clouds, and MERRA-2 underestimates cloud occurrence at almost all heights. Outgoing shortwave radiation is overestimated in MERRA-2, implying a “too few, too bright” cloud problem. SO cloud and fog biases are a substantial issue in the analyzed model and reanalyzes and result in shortwave and longwave radiation biases.
The objective of this project was to develop and validate a fine-tuned, 3D computational modeling tool for high-fidelity simulations of macroalgae cultivation and harvest systems. To develop this tool, a full understanding of the geometric, material and hydrodynamic properties associated with farming kelp in exposed environments was necessary. Experiments and numerical modeling were done at increasing scales from 1) tank tests with a 1 m model, 2) to field tests with a 61 m culture line at a sheltered site, 3) to field tests with a 122 m culture line at an exposed site and to 4) a 5- line array at the exposed site with 186 m of culture length. The results of the experimental tank tests yielded a set of hydrodynamic drag-area coefficients for a 1 m aggregate based on densely grown kelp at 16 kg/m with a length up to 3 m as described in Fredriksson et al. This work provided the basis to model kelp as a 1 m aggregate based on in-situ geometric and material properties to include measurements of kelp blade length and width, number of blades, yield per m, material mass density and cantilever tests to obtain modulus of elasticity.
Abstract. Atmospheric aerosol has substantial impacts on climate, air quality and biogeochemical cycles, and its concentrations are highly variable in space and time. A key variability to evaluate within models that simulate aerosol is the vertical distribution, which influences atmospheric heating profiles and aerosol–cloud interactions, to help constrain aerosol residence time and to better represent the magnitude of simulated impacts. To ensure a consistent comparison between modeled and observed vertical distribution of aerosol, we implemented an aerosol lidar simulator within the Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (CFMIP) Observation Simulator Package version 2 (COSPv2). We assessed the attenuated total backscattered (ATB) signal and the backscatter ratios (SRs) at 532 nm in the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 (E3SMv1). The simulator performs the computations at the same vertical resolution as the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP), making use of aerosol optics from the E3SMv1 model as inputs and assuming that aerosol is uniformly distributed horizontally within each model grid box. The simulator applies a cloud masking and an aerosol detection threshold to obtain the ATB and SR profiles that would be observed above clouds by CALIOP with its aerosol detection capability. Our analysis shows that the aerosol distribution simulated at a seasonal timescale is generally in good agreement with observations. Over the Southern Ocean, however, the model does not produce the SR maximum as observed in the real world. Comparison between clear-sky and all-sky SRs shows little differences, indicating that the cloud screening by potentially incorrect model clouds does not affect the mean aerosol signal averaged over a season. This indicates that the differences between observed and simulated SR values are due not to sampling errors, but to deficiencies in the representation of aerosol in models. Finally, we highlight the need for future applications of lidar observations at multiple wavelengths to provide insights into aerosol properties and distribution and their representation in Earth system models.
In this paper, we analyze the stability of different coupling strategies for multidomain PDEs that arise in general circulation models used in climate simulations. We focus on fully coupled ocean–atmosphere models that are needed to represent and understand the complicated interactions of these two systems, becoming increasingly important in climate change assessment in recent years. Numerical stability issues typically arise because of different time-stepping strategies applied to the coupled PDE system. In particular, the contributing factors include using large time steps, lack of accurate interface flux, and single-iteration coupling. We investigate the stability of the coupled ocean–atmosphere models for various interface conditions such as the Dirichlet–Neumann condition and the bulk interface condition, which is unique to climate modeling. By analyzing a simplified model, we demonstrate here how the parameterization of the bulk condition and other numerical and physical parameters affect the coupling stability and establish stability conditions for different coupling strategies.
Tropical cyclones (TCs) alter upper-ocean temperature and influence ocean heat content via enhanced turbulent mixing. A better understanding of the role of TCs within the climate system requires a fully coupled modeling framework, where TC-induced ocean responses feed back to the atmosphere and subsequently to the climate mean state and variability. Here, we investigate the impacts of TC wind forcing on the global ocean and the associated feedbacks within the climate system using the fully coupled Community Earth System Model version 1.3 (CESM1.3). Using the low-resolution version of CESM1.3 (1° atmosphere and ocean grid spacing) with no intrinsic TCs, we conduct a suite of sensitivity experiments by inserting TC winds extracted from a high-resolution (0.25° atmosphere grid spacing) TC-permitting simulation into the low-resolution model. Results from the low-resolution TC experiment are compared to a low-resolution control simulation to diagnose TCs’ impact. We found that the added TC winds can increase ocean heat content by affecting ocean vertical mixing, air–sea enthalpy fluxes, and cloud amount. Here, the added TCs can influence mean SST, precipitation, ocean subsurface temperature, and ocean mixed layer depth. We found a strengthening of the wind-driven subtropical cells and a weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation due to the changes of surface buoyancy fluxes. TCs in the model cause anomalous equatorward ocean heat convergence in the deep tropics and an increase of poleward ocean heat transport out of the subtropics. Our modeling results provide new insights into the multiscale interactions between TCs and the coupled climate system.
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When subglacial meltwater is discharged into the ocean at the grounding line, it acts as a source of buoyancy, enhancing flow speeds along the ice base that result in higher basal melt rates. The effects of subglacial discharge have been well studied in the context of a Greenland-like, vertical calving front, where Earth's rotation can be neglected. Here we study these effects in the context of Antarctic ice shelves, where rotation is important. We use a numerical model to simulate ocean circulation and basal melting beneath an idealized three-dimensional ice shelf and vary the rate and distribution of subglacial discharge. For channelized discharge, we find that in the rotating case, total melt-flux anomaly increases with two-thirds power of the discharge, in contrast to existing non-rotating results for which the melt-flux anomaly increases with one-third power of the discharge. The higher melt-flux anomaly with discharge is attributed to a more extensive area of the ice-shelf base being exposed to direct high melting by the rising plume as it is deflected due to Earth's rotation and its path is prolonged. For distributed discharge, we find that in both the rotating and the non-rotating cases, the melt-flux anomaly increases with two-thirds power of the discharge. Furthermore, in the rotating case, the addition of channelized, subglacial discharge can produce either a higher or a lower ice-shelf basal melt-flux anomaly than the equivalent amount of distributed discharge, depending on its location along the grounding line relative to the directionality of the Coriolis force. This contrasts with previous results from non-rotating, vertical ice-cliff simulations, where distributed discharge was always found to be more efficient than channelized discharge at enhancing the terminus-averaged melt rate. The implication, based on our idealized simulations, is that melt-rate parameterizations attempting to include subglacial discharge effects that are not geometry- and rotation-aware may produce total melt-flux anomalies that are off by a factor of 2 or more.
Unprecedented climate change and anthropogenic activities have induced increasing ecohydrological problems, which have motivated the development of large-scale modeling for solutions. Water age/quality is as important as water quantity for understanding the water cycle. However, current scientific progress in tracking water parcels at large-scale with high spatiotemporal resolutions is far behind that in water balance/quantity owing to the lack of powerful tools. EcoSLIM is a particle tracking model that works with the hydrologic model ParFlow-CLM, which couples surface-subsurface hydrology with land surface processes. Here, we demonstrate a parallel framework to accelerate EcoSLIM to continental-scale on a distributed, multi-GPU platform with CUDA-Aware MPI. In tests from catchment-, to regional-, and then to continental-scale using 25-million to 1.6-billion particles, EcoSLIM shows significant speedup and excellent parallel performance. The parallel framework is portable to atmospheric and oceanic particle tracking models, where parallelization is inadequate and a standard parallel framework is absent. Parallelized EcoSLIM is a promising tool to accelerate our understanding of the terrestrial water cycle and the upscaling of subsurface hydrology to Earth system models.
Abstract Ocean heat uptake (OHU) plays an important role in determining the rate of surface warming under CO 2 forcing. We examined the transient response to CO 2 forcing in a set of 30 climate models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) and found that the intermodel spread in OHU efficiency largely depends on the base‐state ocean stratification, especially in the Southern Ocean. This dependence is primarily traced to ocean salinity rather than ocean temperature. Models with weaker ocean stratification primarily due to higher upper‐ocean salinity tend to sequester heat into the deeper ocean, leading to a lower rate of surface warming, a primary reason for higher OHU efficiency; the stratification impact on total OHU is secondary. We applied the relationship between salinity and OHU efficiency for an emergent constraint on OHU efficiency, suggesting an OHU efficiency higher than the CMIP6 multimodel average and arguing against models with extremely low efficiency.