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At least 271 records · Page 15

The Influence of Anomalous Biomass Emissions on ENSO in CESM2

Abstract The influence of biomass burning (BB) aerosols arising from wildfires and agricultural fires on the transient coupled evolution of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is explored in Community Earth System Model, version 2 (CESM2). For both El Niño and La Niña, two 20-member ensembles are generated from initial states that are predisposed to evolve into ENSO events. For each ENSO phase, one ensemble is forced with the observed BB emissions during satellite-era ENSO events while the other is forced with a climatological annual cycle, with the responses to anomalous BB emissions estimated from interensemble differences. It is found that the regional responses to anomalous BB emissions occur mainly during boreal fall, which is also the time of the climatological seasonal maximum in emissions. Transient responses are identified in precipitation, clouds, and radiation in both the tropics and extratropics. At the onset of El Niño, these include increased precipitation in the northern branch of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and an enhancement of cloud albedo and amount across the Maritime Continent and eastern subtropical Pacific Ocean. Additional responses are identified through the course of El Niño and successive La Niña events, the net effect of which is to strengthen sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the eastern Pacific Ocean during El Niño and warm the tropical Pacific Ocean during La Niña. These responses improve the simulation of ENSO power, diversity, and asymmetry in CESM2. Significance Statement Biomass burning emissions from both wildfires and agricultural fires during ENSO act as a climate feedback, as they are both driven by fire weather anomalies tied to ENSO and influence clouds, radiation, and precipitation on a global scale. While the largest biomass burning (BB) emissions emanate mainly from Indonesia, other regions also exhibit systematic responses. When simulated in CESM2, the emissions collectively impact the flows of energy across the tropical Pacific Ocean in a spatially and temporally complex fashion, with the net effect of improving CESM2’s simulation of ENSO events.

Fasullo, John T. [National Center for Atmospheric ↗

Decision Support Tool Evaluation Report for General NOAA Oil Modeling Environment(GNOME) Version 2.0

NASA's Earth Science Applications Directorate evaluated the potential of NASA remote sensing data and modeling products to enhance the General NOAA Oil Modeling Environment (GNOME) decision support tool. NOAA's Office of Response and Restoration (OR&R) Hazardous Materials (HAZMAT) Response Division is interested in enhancing GNOME with near-realtime (NRT) NASA remote sensing products on oceanic winds and ocean circulation. The NASA SeaWinds sea surface wind and Jason-1 sea surface height NRT products have potential, as do sea surface temperature and reflectance products from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer and sea surface reflectance products from Landsat and the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflectance Radiometer. HAZMAT is also interested in the Advanced Circulation model and the Ocean General Circulation Model. Certain issues must be considered, including lack of data continuity, marginal data redundancy, and data formatting problems. Spatial resolution is an issue for near-shore GNOME applications. Additional work will be needed to incorporate NASA inputs into GNOME, including verification and validation of data products, algorithms, models, and NRT data.

Spruce, Joseph P.↗

Polarimetric Passive Remote Sensing of Wind-generated Sea Surfaces and Ocean Wind Vectors

This paper investigates the theory of polarimetric passive remote sensing of wind-generated sea surfaces. A two-scale polarimetric scattering and emission model of sea surfaces is developed to interpret existing active and passive remote sensing microwave signatures of sea surfaces, and to investigate the potential application of polarimetic radiometry to ocean surface winds.

Polarimetric Remote Sensing↗

Analysis of Present Day and Future OH and Methane Lifetime in the ACCMIP Simulations

Results from simulations performed for the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Modeling Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) are analysed to examine how OH and methane lifetime may change from present day to the future, under different climate and emissions scenarios. Present day (2000) mean tropospheric chemical lifetime derived from the ACCMIP multi-model mean is 9.8+/-1.6 yr (9.3+/-0.9 yr when only including selected models), lower than a recent observationally-based estimate, but with a similar range to previous multi-model estimates. Future model projections are based on the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), and the results also exhibit a large range. Decreases in global methane lifetime of 4.5 +/- 9.1% are simulated for the scenario with lowest radiative forcing by 2100 (RCP 2.6), while increases of 8.5+/-10.4% are simulated for the scenario with highest radiative forcing (RCP 8.5). In this scenario, the key driver of the evolution of OH and methane lifetime is methane itself, since its concentration more than doubles by 2100 and it consumes much of the OH that exists in the troposphere. Stratospheric ozone recovery, which drives tropospheric OH decreases through photolysis modifications, also plays a partial role. In the other scenarios, where methane changes are less drastic, the interplay between various competing drivers leads to smaller and more diverse OH and methane lifetime responses, which are difficult to attribute. For all scenarios, regional OH changes are even more variable, with the most robust feature being the large decreases over the remote oceans in RCP8.5. Through a regression analysis, we suggest that differences in emissions of non-methane volatile organic compounds and in the simulation of photolysis rates may be the main factors causing the differences in simulated present day OH and methane lifetime. Diversity in predicted changes between present day and future OH was found to be associated more strongly with differences in modelled temperature and stratospheric ozone changes. Finally, through perturbation experiments we calculated an OH feedback factor (F) of 1.24 from present day conditions (1.50 from 2100 RCP8.5 conditions) and a climate feedback on methane lifetime of 0.33+-0.13 yr/K, on average. Models that did not include interactive stratospheric ozone effects on photolysis showed a stronger sensitivity to climate, as they did not account for negative effects of climate-driven stratospheric ozone recovery on tropospheric OH, which would have partly offset the overall OH/methane lifetime response to climate change.

atmospheric composition↗

Impact of Ship Emissions on Marine Boundary Layer NO(x) and SO2 Distributions over the Pacific Basin

The impact of ship emissions on marine boundary layer (MBL) NO(x) and SO2 levels over the Pacific Ocean has been explored by comparing predictions (with and without ships) from a global chemical transport model (GCTM) against compiled airborne observations of MBL NO(x) and SO2. For latitudes above 15 N, which define that part of the Pacific having the heaviest shipping, this analysis revealed significant model over prediction for NOx and a modest under prediction for SO2 when ship emissions were considered. Possible reasons for the difference in NO(x) and SO2 were explored using a full-chemistry box model. These results revealed that for an actual plume setting the NO(x) lifetime could be greatly shortened by chemical processes promoted by ship plume emissions themselves. Similar chemical behavior was not found for SO2.

Davis, D. D.↗

Carbon dioxide emissions from Deccan volcanism and a K/T boundary greenhouse effect

A greenhouse warming caused by increased emissions of carbon dioxide from the Deccan Traps volcanism has been suggested as the cause of the terminal Cretaceous extinctions on land and in the sea. Total eruptive and noneruptive CO2 output by the Deccan eruptions (from 6 to 20 x 10 to the 16th moles) over a period of several hundred thousand years is estimated based on best estimates of the CO2 weight fraction of the original basalts and basaltic melts, the fraction of CO2 degassed, and the volume of the Deccan Traps eruptions. Results of a model designed to estimate the effects of increased CO2 on climate and ocean chemistry suggest that increases in atmospheric pCO2 due to Deccan Traps CO2 emissions would have been less than 75 ppm, leading to a predicted global warming of less than 1 C over several hundred thousand years. It is concluded that the direct climate effects of CO2 emissions from the Deccan eruptions would have been too weak to be an important factor in the end-Cretaceous mass extinctions.

Caldeira, Ken↗

Southern Ocean Sulfate Aerosol Sources Quantified From Sulfur Isotopes in Antarctic Ice Cores

The Southern Ocean has emerged as a key region for constraining aerosol-climate interactions due to its relatively low anthropogenic influence. Sulfate is an important aerosol over the Southern Ocean, and models suggest dimethyl sulfide (DMS) is the largest source of sulfate during summer. However, sulfur isotopes of sulfate (δ 34 S(SO 4 2− )) in Antarctic ice cores suggest a significant contribution from a previously unexplained non-DMS source. Here we show that the fractional contribution from passive volcanic degassing (f volc ) explains observed δ 34 S(SO 4 2− ), and that a global chemical transport model underestimates f volc across Antarctica. Underestimated f volc implies that the model mischaracterizes sulfate sources in this important region. The discrepancy between observed and modeled sulfate sources can be reconciled by increasing passive volcanic sulfur degassing emissions and decreasing DMS emissions. Our results imply that current biases in emissions inventories could bias assessments of aerosol-cloud interactions in the Southern Ocean region and globally.

Jongebloed, Ursula A. [Univ. of Washington, Seattl↗

Atmospheric Trace Gas (NO2 and Ozone) Dynamics over Coastal Waters near Polluted Urban Regions

At the interface between the land, oceans, and atmosphere, coastal regions are highly dynamic environments, characterized by strong variability in both water and air quality. Variability in atmospheric composition is associated with highly variable anthropogenic emissions, as well as complex meteorological processes that influence the circulation and accumulation of atmospheric pollutants at the land-ocean interface. Assessing the spatial and temporal dynamics of atmospheric pollutants, aerosols, and absorbing trace gases in coastal areas is critical for improving modeling of coastal tropospheric air quality, developing accurate satellite retrievals of coastal ocean color and biological processes, determining impacts of atmospheric pollution on human health, and assessing the ecological implications of atmospheric pollutant deposition for coastal terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems.Here, we present new measurements of atmospheric trace gas (NO2, and ozone) dynamics across a range of estuarine and coastal waters near urban regions. Measurements were conducted from research vessels using NASA's shipboard Pandora spectrometers, as part of recent multidisciplinary, multiplatform field campaigns, including the 2016 KORUS OC/AQ field campaign in the Yellow Sea and East Sea/Sea of Japan, the 2017/2018 OLWETS field campaign in the Chesapeake Bay estuary, and the 2018 LISTOS field campaign in the Long Island Sound. Shipboard measurements over these coastal waters were integrated with measurements from a ground-based Pandora network to examine differences in air quality over the land and over the ocean. Measurements were combined with air-parcel back-trajectory simulations to determine the origin of air masses over the coastal ocean. Comparisons with satellite retrievals of atmospheric composition reveal the benefits and limitations of polar-orbit satellite observations in capturing variability in atmospheric pollution gradients over land-water boundaries.

Tzortziou, Maria↗

Decision Support Tool Evaluation Report for Coral Reef Early Warning System (CREWS) Version 7.0

The Coral Reef Early Warning System (CREWS) is operated by NOAA's Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research as part of its Coral Reef Watch program in response to the deteriorating global state of coral reef and related benthic ecosystems. In addition to sea surface temperatures (SSTs), the two most important parameters used by the CREWS network in generating coral reef bleaching alerts are 1) wind speed and direction and 2) photosynthetically available radiation (PAR). NASA remote sensing products that can enhance CREWS in these areas include SST and PAR products from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and wind data from the Quick Scatterometer (QuikSCAT). CREWS researchers are also interested in chlorophyll, chromophoric dissolved organic matter (CDOM), and salinity. Chlorophyll and CDOM are directly available as NASA products, while rainfall (an available NASA product) can be used as a proxy for salinity. Other potential NASA inputs include surface reflectance products from MODIS, the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer, and Landsat. This report also identifies NASA-supported ocean circulation models and products from future satellite missions that might enchance the CREWS DST.

D'Sa, Eurico↗

The hazard components of representative key risks. The physical climate perspective

The framework of Representative Key Risks (RKRs) has been adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Working Group II in order to categorize, assess and communicate a wide range of regional and sectoral key risks, expected to become severe as a consequence of the potentially detrimental convergence of changing climate conditions, exposure and vulnerability of human and natural systems, and responses through (mal)adaptation measures. Other papers in this special issue treat each of eight RKRs by holistically assessing their current status and future evolution as a result of this convergence. However, their treatment cannot always organize such assessment according to a systematic gradation of climatic changes, often times having to extrapolate the big-picture evolution of risk from either qualitative effects of “low” medium” and “high” warming, or limited/focused analysis of the consequences of particular mitigation choices (e.g., benefits of limiting warming to 1.5 or 2C). In this study we offer as systematic a representation as possible – given current literature and assessments – of the future evolution of the hazard components of RKRs. We draw on the assessment of changes in climatic impact-drivers relevant to RKRs described in the 6th Assessment Report by Working Group 1 (WGI) supplemented when needed by more recent literature. We identify the relevant hazards for each RKR, based upon the WGII authors’ assessment, and we report on their current state and expected future changes in magnitude, intensity and/or frequency, linking these changes to Global Warming Levels to the extent possible. For some of these quantities - like regional trends in oceanic and atmospheric temperature and precipitation, some heat and precipitation extremes, permafrost thaw and Northern Hemisphere snow cover - a strong and quantitative relationship with global average temperature change has been assessed. For others - like frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones and extra-tropical storms, and fire weather - the link to increasing global temperatures can only be described qualitatively. For some processes - like the behavior of ice-sheets, or changes in circulation dynamics - large uncertainties about the effects of different levels of warming remain, and for a few others - like ocean pH and air pollution - the composition of the scenario of anthropogenic emissions is most relevant, rather than the warming reached. In almost all cases, however, the basic message remains that every small increment in CO2 concentration in the atmosphere and associated warming will bring changes in climate phenomena that will contribute to increasing risk of impacts on human and natural systems when these changes happen in conjunction with these systems’ conditions of exposure and vulnerability, and in lack of effective adaptation. Our picture of the evolution of RKR-relevant climatic impact-drivers complements and enriches the treatment of RKRs in the other papers in at least two ways: by filling in an often only cursory or limited representation of the physical climate aspects driving impacts, and by providing a fuller representation of their future possible evolution which represents an important component – if never the only one – of the potential future evolution of risk severity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Sulfur isotope measurements of submicrometer sulfate aerosol particles over the Pacific Ocean

Stable isotopes were used to analyze the submicron-size sulfate aerosol particles in the atmosphere over the Pacific Ocean, together with the air-mass back trajectories, in order to test the hypothesis of Charlson et al. (1987) who suggested that, over the remote ocean areas, the primary source of atmospheric nonseasalt (NSS) sulfate is marine emissions of dimethylsulfide (DMS). The observed results of isotopic fractionation between the seawater sulfate and NSS sulfate fractions was found to be consistent with the isotopic fractionation predicted for the transformation of the seawater sulfate to the atmospheric NSS sulfate via a DMS path way, supporting the hypothesis of Charlson et al.

Calhoun, Julie A.↗

Future chlorine-bromine loading and ozone depletion

The prediction of future ozone requires three elements: (1) a scenario for the net emissions of chemically and radiatively active trace gases from the land and oceans; (2) a global atmospheric model that projects the accumulation of these gases; and (3) a chemical transport model that describes the distribution of ozone for a prescribed atmospheric composition and climate. This chapter, of necessity, presents models for all three elements and focuses on the following: (1) atmospheric abundance of chlorine and bromine in the form of halocarbons; and (2) the associated perturbations to stratospheric ozone.

Prather, Michael J.↗

Ecosystem Modeling of Biological Processes to Global Budgets

From an ecological perspective, the search for life on distant planets begins from several key assumptions. The first of these is that, viewed from a remote location in space, the signature of life on a distant planet will be the result of net gas exchange of organisms with their environment. On the basis of extensive biogeochemical measurements and biogenic trace gas fluxes in modem Earth environments, it is probable that certain groups of organisms both produce and consume the same trace gas(es) within a single bioprofile of Solid (porous) substrate or surface water. The net gas exchange rate with the atmosphere measured at the living surface is frequently the result of competing metabolic reactions, which may carried out by different functional groups of organisms located at dissimilar 'climatic' or chemical microsites within the same bioprofile. Biogenic gases produced at one (deep) level of a bioprofile may be consumed by another functional group of organisms located closer to the level of surface exchange with the atmosphere. A second key assumption is that the net biogenic fluxes of atmospheric gases on Earth can be used to infer relative abundance and functional composition of the major organisms on a distant planet. Examples of this principle include the presence of methanogenic microorganisms abundant today in freshwater ecosystems worldwide, which are major source of atmospheric methane and its seasonal variability in Earth's atmosphere. A third assumption is that scaling up biogenic gas fluxes from a single biological community to the planetary level requires flux measurements at the whole ecosystem level. This implies that measurements of biogenic gas exchange with the global atmosphere cannot be easily inferred from measurements of gas production rates of single organisms, which may have been isolated in some manner from the setting of their native ecosystem. Hence, the unit of biological organization used in modern Earth Science for scaling up to biosphere effects on atmospheric composition is the ecosystem level. These assumptions are the foundation for developing modern emission budgets for biogenic gases such as carbon dioxide, methane, carbon monoxide, isoprene, nitrous and nitric oxide, and ammonia. Such emission budgets commonly include information on seasonal flux patterns, typical diurnal profiles, and spatial resolution of at least one degree latitude/longitude for the globe. On the basis of these budgets, it is possible to compute 'base emission rates' for the major biogenic trace gases from both terrestrial and ocean sources, which may be useful benchmarks for defining the gas production rates of organisms, especially those from early Earth history, which are required to generate a detectable signal on a global atmosphere. This type of analysis is also the starting point for evaluation of the 'biological processes to global gas budget' extrapolation procedure described above for early Earth ecosystems.

Christopher, Potter S.↗

Capturing Depolarization Information in GPS Reflections

The state of the surface of the ocean has a prominent effect on the depolarization of the circularly polarized emissions of the GPS satellites. The system designers election to capture the important information carries with it the need to implement the data extraction in a cost efficient manner. Antenna components, and associated networks for deriving depolarization information are described. For typical sea states the polarization characteristics of the reflected GPS signal vary rapidly with time so various methods for recording the changes are discussed.

Kelly, Kenneth C.↗

Uncertainty of Passive Imager Cloud Optical Property Retrievals to Instrument Radiometry and Model Assumptions: Examples from MODIS

The optical and microphysical structure of clouds is of fundamental importance for understanding a variety of cloud radiation and precipitation processes. With the advent of MODIS on the NASA EOS Terra and Aqua platforms, simultaneous global-daily 1 km retrievals of cloud optical thickness (COT) and effective particle radius (CER) are provided, as well as the derived water path (WP). The cloud product (MOD06/MYD06 for MODIS Terra and Aqua, respectively) provides separate retrieval datasets for various two-channel retrievals, typically a VISNIR channel paired with a 1.6, 2.1, and 3.7 m spectral channel. The MOD06 forward model is derived from on a homogeneous plane-parallel cloud. In Collection 5 processing (completed in 2007 with a modified Collection 5.1 completed in 2010), pixel-level retrieval uncertainties were calculated for the following non-3-D error sources: radiometry, surface spectral albedo, and atmospheric corrections associated with model analysis uncertainties (water vapor only). The latter error source includes error correlation across the retrieval spectral channels. Estimates of uncertainty in 1 aggregated (Level-3) means were also provided assuming unity correlation between error sources for all pixels in a grid for a single day, and zero correlation of error sources from one day to the next. I n Collection 6 (expected to begin in late summer 2013) we expanded the uncertainty analysis to include: (a) scene-dependent calibration uncertainty that depends on new band and detector-specific Level 1B uncertainties, (b) new model error sources derived from the look-up tables which includes sensitivities associated with wind direction over the ocean and uncertainties in liquid water and ice effective variance, (c) thermal emission uncertainties in the 3.7 m band associated with cloud and surface temperatures that are needed to extract reflected solar radiation from the total radiance signal, (d) uncertainty in the solar spectral irradiance at 3.7 m, and (e) addition of stratospheric ozone uncertainty in visible atmospheric corrections. A summary of the approach and example Collection 6 results will be shown.

Cloud Properties Observations↗

Multiyear On-orbit Calibration and Performance of Terra MODIS Thermal Emissive Bands

Since launch in December 1999, Terra MODIS has been making continuous Earth observations for more than seven years. It has produced a broad range of land, ocean, and atmospheric science data products for improvements in studies of global climate and environmental change. Among its 36 spectral bands, there are 20 reflective solar bands (RSB) and 16 thermal emissive bands (TEB). MODIS thermal emissive bands cover the mid-wave infrared (MWIR) and long-wave infrared (LWIR) spectral regions with wavelengths from 3.7 to 14.4pm. They are calibrated on-orbit using an on-board blackbody (BB) with its temperature measured by a set of thermistors on a scan-by-scan basis. This paper will provide a brief overview of MODIS TEB calibration and characterization methodologies and illustrate on-board BB functions and TEB performance over more than seven years of on-orbit operation and calibration. Discussions will be focused on TEB detector short-term stability and noise characterization, and changes in long-term response (or system gain). Results show that Terra MODIS BB operation has been extremely stable since launch. When operated at its nominal controlled temperature of 290K, the BB temperature variation is typically less than +0.30mK on a scan-by-scan basis and there has been no time-dependent temperature drift. In addition to excellent short-term stability, most TEB detectors continue to meet or exceed their specified noise characterization requirements, thus enabling calibration accuracy and science data product quality to be maintained. Excluding the noisy detectors identified pre-launch and those that occurred post-launch, the changes in TEB responses have been less than 0.7% on an annual basis. The optical leak corrections applied to bands 32-36 have been effective and stable over the entire mission

Xiong, Xiaoxiong↗

Quantifying airborne fraction trends and the destination of anthropogenic CO 2 by tracking carbon flows in a simple climate model

Abstract Atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) concentrations have increased as a direct result of human activity and are at their highest level over the last 2 million years, with profound impacts on the Earth system. However, the magnitude and future dynamics of land and ocean carbon sinks are not well understood; therefore, the amount of anthropogenic fossil fuel emissions that remain in the atmosphere (the airborne fraction) is poorly constrained. This work aims to quantify the sources and controls of atmospheric CO 2 , the fate of anthropogenic CO 2 over time, and the likelihood of a trend in the airborne fraction. We use Hector v3.0, a coupled simple climate and carbon cycle model with the novel ability to explicitly track carbon as it flows through the Earth system. We use key model parameters in a Monte Carlo analysis of 15 000 model runs from 1750 to 2300. Results are filtered for physical realism against historical observations and CMIP6 projection data, and we calculate the relative importance of parameters controlling how much anthropogenic carbon ends up in the atmosphere. Modeled airborne fraction was roughly 52%, consistent with observational studies. The overwhelming majority of model runs exhibited a negative trend in the airborne fraction from 1960–2020, implying that current-day land and ocean sinks are proportionally taking up more carbon than the atmosphere. However, the percentage of atmospheric CO 2 derived from anthropogenic origins can be much higher because of Earth system feedbacks. We find it peaks at over 90% between 2010–2050. Moreover, when looking at the destination of anthropogenic fossil fuel emissions, only a quarter ends up in the atmosphere while more than half of emissions are taken up by the land sink on centennial timescales. This study evaluates the likelihood of airborne fraction trends and provides insights into the dynamics of anthropogenic CO 2 in the Earth system.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗