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NASA NTRS1997

The orbital debris program of the United States

The policy of the U.S. government relative to orbital debris, as it is set out in recent national space policy, is reviewed. The objectives of the orbital debris program are to: ensure the current and future safe use of the space environment; ensure the safety of human space flight; promote a scientific understanding of the space environment; minimize the creation of orbital debris, and promote the adoption of appropriate debris minimization practices by international spacefaring organizations. The problem is stated and the national and international activities are described. The five recommendations of the 1995 interagency report on orbital debris are presented together with the proposed response of the U.S. government to these recommendations.

Levin, George M.↗
NASA NTRS2014

The New NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model ORDEM 3.0

The NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) has released its latest Orbital Debris Engineering Model, ORDEM 3.0. It supersedes ORDEM 2.0. This newer model encompasses the Earth satellite and debris flux environment from altitudes of low Earth orbit (LEO) through geosynchronous orbit (GEO). Debris sizes of 10 microns through 1 m in non-GEO and 10 cm through 1 m in GEO are modeled. The inclusive years are 2010 through 2035. The ORDEM model series has always been data driven. ORDEM 3.0 has the benefit of many more hours from existing data sources and from new sources that weren't available to past versions. Returned surfaces, ground tests, and remote sensors all contribute data. The returned surface and ground test data reveal material characteristics of small particles. Densities of fragmentation debris particles smaller than 10 cm are grouped in ORDEM 3.0 in terms of high-, medium-, and lowdensities, along with RORSAT sodium-potassium droplets. Supporting models have advanced significantly. The LEO-to-GEO ENvironment Debris model (LEGEND) includes an historical and a future projection component with yearly populations that include launched and maneuvered intacts, mission related debris (MRD), and explosion and collision fragments. LEGEND propagates objects with ephemerides and physical characteristics down to 1 mm in size. The full LEGEND yearly population acts as an a priori condition for a Bayesian statistical model. Specific, well defined populations are added like the Radar Ocean Reconnaissance Satellite (RORSAT) sodium-potassium (NaK) droplets, recent major accidental and deliberate collision fragments, and known anomalous debris event fragments. For microdebris of sizes 10 microns to 1 mm the ODPO uses an in-house Degradation/Ejecta model in which a MLE technique is used with returned surface data to estimate populations. This paper elaborates on the upgrades of this model over previous versions highlighting the material density splits and consequences of that to the penetration risk to spacecraft.

Krisko, P. H.↗
NASA NTRS2014

The New NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model ORDEM 3.0

The NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) has released its latest Orbital Debris Engineering Model, ORDEM 3.0. It supersedes ORDEM 2000, now referred to as ORDEM 2.0. This newer model encompasses the Earth satellite and debris flux environment from altitudes of low Earth orbit (LEO) through geosynchronous orbit (GEO). Debris sizes of 10 micron through larger than 1 m in non-GEO and 10 cm through larger than 1 m in GEO are available. The inclusive years are 2010 through 2035. The ORDEM model series has always been data driven. ORDEM 3.0 has the benefit of many more hours of data from existing sources and from new sources than past ORDEM versions. The object data range in size from 10 μm to larger than 1 m, and include in situ and remote measurements. The in situ data reveals material characteristics of small particles. Mass densities are grouped in ORDEM 3.0 in terms of 'high-density', represented by 7.9 g/cc, 'medium-density' represented by 2.8 g/cc and 'low-density' represented by 1.4 g/cc. Supporting models have also advanced significantly. The LEO-to-GEO ENvironment Debris model (LEGEND) includes an historical and a future projection component with yearly populations that include launched and maneuvered intact spacecraft and rocket bodies, mission related debris, and explosion and collision event fragments. LEGEND propagates objects with ephemerides and physical characteristics down to 1 mm in size. The full LEGEND yearly population acts as an a priori condition for a Bayesian statistical model. Specific populations are added from sodium potassium droplet releases, recent major accidental and deliberate collisions, and known anomalous debris events. This paper elaborates on the upgrades of this model over previous versions. Sample validation results with remote and in situ measurements are shown, and the consequences of including material density are discussed as it relates to heightened risks to crewed and robotic spacecraft

Krisko, P. H.↗
NASA NTRS2013

NASA Orbital Debris Baseline Populations

The NASA Orbital Debris Program Office has created high fidelity populations of the debris environment. The populations include objects of 1 cm and larger in Low Earth Orbit through Geosynchronous Transfer Orbit. They were designed for the purpose of assisting debris researchers and sensor developers in planning and testing. This environment is derived directly from the newest ORDEM model populations which include a background derived from LEGEND, as well as specific events such as the Chinese ASAT test, the Iridium 33/Cosmos 2251 accidental collision, the RORSAT sodium-potassium droplet releases, and other miscellaneous events. It is the most realistic ODPO debris population to date. In this paper we present the populations in chart form. We describe derivations of the background population and the specific populations added on. We validate our 1 cm and larger Low Earth Orbit population against SSN, Haystack, and HAX radar measurements.

Krisko, Paula H.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Characterizing the Space Debris Environment with a Variety of SSA Sensors

Damaging space debris spans a wide range of sizes and altitudes. Therefore no single method or sensor can fully characterize the space debris environment. Space debris researchers use a variety of radars and optical telescopes to characterize the space debris environment in terms of number, altitude, and inclination distributions. Some sensors, such as phased array radars, are designed to search a large volume of the sky and can be instrumental in detecting new breakups and cataloging and precise tracking of relatively large debris. For smaller debris sizes more sensitivity is needed which can be provided, in part, by large antenna gains. Larger antenna gains, however, produce smaller fields of view. Statistical measurements of the debris environment with less precise orbital parameters result. At higher altitudes, optical telescopes become the more sensitive instrument and present their own measurement difficulties. Space Situational Awareness, or SSA, is concerned with more than the number and orbits of satellites. SSA also seeks to understand such parameters as the function, shape, and composition of operational satellites. Similarly, debris researchers are seeking to characterize similar parameters for space debris to improve our knowledge of the risks debris poses to operational satellites as well as determine sources of debris for future mitigation. This paper will discuss different sensor and sensor types and the role that each plays in fully characterizing the space debris environment.

Stansbery, Eugene G.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Statistical Estimation of Orbital Debris Populations with a Spectrum of Object Size

Orbital debris is a real concern for the safe operations of satellites. In general, the hazard of debris impact is a function of the size and spatial distributions of the debris populations. To describe and characterize the debris environment as reliably as possible, the current NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model (ORDEM2000) is being upgraded to a new version based on new and better quality data. The data-driven ORDEM model covers a wide range of object sizes from 10 microns to greater than 1 meter. This paper reviews the statistical process for the estimation of the debris populations in the new ORDEM upgrade, and discusses the representation of large-size (greater than or equal to 1 m and greater than or equal to 10 cm) populations by SSN catalog objects and the validation of the statistical approach. Also, it presents results for the populations with sizes of greater than or equal to 3.3 cm, greater than or equal to 1 cm, greater than or equal to 100 micrometers, and greater than or equal to 10 micrometers. The orbital debris populations used in the new version of ORDEM are inferred from data based upon appropriate reference (or benchmark) populations instead of the binning of the multi-dimensional orbital-element space. This paper describes all of the major steps used in the population-inference procedure for each size-range. Detailed discussions on data analysis, parameter definition, the correlation between parameters and data, and uncertainty assessment are included.

Xu, Y. -l↗
NASA NTRS2008

The Solid Rocket Motor Slag Population: Results of a Radar-Based Regressive Statistical Evaluation

Solid rocket motor (SRM) slag has been identified as a potential source of man-made orbital debris. The possibility that SRMs (in addition to generating dust particles in the sub-millimeter range) may generate particles up to centimeters in size has caused concern regarding their contribution to the debris environment. Returned surfaces from space do not have sufficient area or exposure time to provide a clear picture of the SRM millimeter and centimeter debris population. Currently, radar observation is probably the only way to collect data showing the debris contribution from SRMs. Such observation is used to sample the debris environment, but it is difficult to obtain accurate orbital elements for the detected debris objects. NASA has developed several models to describe the different orbital debris populations, based on assumed debris production mechanisms to create clouds of debris objects that can be propagated in time. The NASA model, LEGEND (LEO-to-GEO Environment Debris), functions as a time-tested debris model for most debris sources. However, the current LEGEND model does not include contributions from the SRM population. An SRM model has recently been developed by NASA, based on purely theoretical details of SRM production and known SRM launches, but verification with hard data is needed. Because the detections of individual SRM objects cannot be deterministically separated from the total debris observed by radar, the validation of the SRM model can only be done by combining it with the LEGEND breakup model and comparing it with data. By applying observational constraints, the degree of SRM slag contribution to the environment may be estimated. This serves as an observationally sound method from which to calibrate a purely theoretical model into something more realistic. For this study, we use the populations observed by the Haystack radar from 1996 to present. For the SRM debris, we use a historical database of SRM launches, propellant masses, and estimated locations and times of tailoff to produce and propagate the SRM debris clouds. Comparisons with radar data from the ensuing years were made, and the SRM model was altered with respect to size and mass production of slag particles to reflect the populations estimated from the data. The result is a model SRM population that fits within the bounds of the observed environment and estimates of the production and contribution of SRM debris to the environment.

Horstman, Matthew F.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Orbital debris and meteoroid population as estimated from LDEF impact data

Examination of LDEF's various surfaces shows numerous craters and holes due to hypervelocity impacts of meteoroids and man-made orbital debris. In this paper, the crater numbers as reported by Humes have been analyzed in an effort to understand the orbital debris and natural meteoroid environment in LEO. To determine the fraction of man-made to natural impacts, the side to top ratio of impacts and results of the Chemistry of Micrometeoroids Experiment are used. For craters in the 100 micron to 500 micron size range, about 25 percent to 30 percent of the impacts on the forward-facing surfaces and about 10 percent of the impacts on the trailing surfaces were estimated due to man-made orbital debris. A technique has been developed to convert crater numbers to particle fluxes, taking the fact into account that the distributions of impact velocity and incidence angle vary over the different surfaces of LDEF, as well as the ratio of the surface area flux to the cross-sectional area flux. Applying this technique, Humes' data concerning craters with limiting lip diameters of 100 micron, 200 micron and 500 micron have been converted into orbital debris and meteoroid fluxes ranging from about 20 micron to 200 micron particle diameter. The results exhibit good agreement with orbital debris model and meteoroid model. The converted meteoroid flux is slightly larger than Grun's model (by 40 to 70 percent). The converted orbital debris flux is slightly lower than Kessler's model for particle diameter smaller than about 30 micron and slightly larger than the model for particle diameter larger than about 40 micron. Taking also into account the IDE data point at about 0.8 micron particle diameter, it suggests to change the slope log (flux) versus log (diameter) of orbital debris flux in the 1 micron to 100 micron particle diameter range from 2.5 to 1.9.

Zhang, Jingchang↗
NASA NTRS2010

The Top 10 Questions for Active Debris Removal

This slide presentation reviews the requirement and issues around removal of debris from the earth orbital environment. The 10 questions discussed are: 1. Which region (LEO/MEO/GEO) has the fastest projected growth rate and the highest collision activities? 2. Can the commonly-adopted mitigation measures stabilize the future environment? 3. What are the objectives of active debris removal (ADR)? 4. How can effective ADR target selection criteria to stabilize the future LEO environment be defined? 5. What are the keys to remediate the future LEO environment? 6. What is the timeframe for ADR implementation? 7. What is the effect of practical/operational constraints? 8. What are the collision probabilities and masses of the current objects? 9. What are the benefits of collision avoidance maneuvers? 10. What is the next step?

Liou, J. -C.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Calculating Statistical Orbit Distributions Using GEO Optical Observations with the Michigan Orbital Debris Survey Telescope (MODEST)

NASA's Orbital Debris measurements program has a goal to characterize the small debris environment in the geosynchronous Earth-orbit (GEO) region using optical telescopes ("small" refers to objects too small to catalog and track with current systems). Traditionally, observations of GEO and near-GEO objects involve following the object with the telescope long enough to obtain an orbit suitable for tracking purposes. Telescopes operating in survey mode, however, randomly observe objects that pass through their field of view. Typically, these short-arc observation are inadequate to obtain detailed orbits, but can be used to estimate approximate circular orbit elements (semimajor axis, inclination, and ascending node). From this information, it should be possible to make statistical inferences about the orbital distributions of the GEO population bright enough to be observed by the system. The Michigan Orbital Debris Survey Telescope (MODEST) has been making such statistical surveys of the GEO region for four years. During that time, the telescope has made enough observations in enough areas of the GEO belt to have had nearly complete coverage. That means that almost all objects in all possible orbits in the GEO and near- GEO region had a non-zero chance of being observed. Some regions (such as those near zero inclination) have had good coverage, while others are poorly covered. Nevertheless, it is possible to remove these statistical biases and reconstruct the orbit populations within the limits of sampling error. In this paper, these statistical techniques and assumptions are described, and the techniques are applied to the current MODEST data set to arrive at our best estimate of the GEO orbit population distribution.

Matney, M.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Using GEO Optical Observations to Infer Orbit Populations

NASA's Orbital Debris measurements program has a goal to characterize the small debris environment in the geosynchronous Earth-orbit (GEO) region using optical telescopes ("small" refers to objects too small to catalog and track with current systems). Traditionally, observations of GEO and near-GEO objects involve following the object with the telescope long enough to obtain an orbit. When observing very dim objects with small field-of-view telescopes, though, the observations are generally too short to obtain accurate orbital elements. However, it is possible to use such observations to statistically characterize the small object environment. A telescope pointed at a particular spot could potentially see objects in a number of different orbits. Inevitably, when looking at one region for certain types of orbits, there are objects in other types of orbits that cannot be seen. Observation campaigns are designed with these limitations in mind and are set up to span a number of regions of the sky, making it possible to sample all potential orbits under consideration. Each orbit is not seen with the same probability, however, so there are observation biases intrinsic to any observation campaign. Fortunately, it is possible to remove such biases and reconstruct a meaningful estimate of the statistical orbit populations of small objects in GEO. This information, in turn, can be used to investigate the nature of debris sources and to characterize the risk to GEO spacecraft. This paper describes these statistical tools and presents estimates of small object GEO populations.

Matney, Mark↗
NASA NTRS2007

Improvements to NASA's Debris Assessment Software

NASA's Debris Assessment Software (DAS) has been substantially revised and expanded. DAS is designed to assist NASA programs in performing orbital debris assessments, as described in NASA s Guidelines and Assessment Procedures for Limiting Orbital Debris. The extensive upgrade of DAS was undertaken to reflect changes in the debris mitigation guidelines, to incorporate recommendations from DAS users, and to take advantage of recent software capabilities for greater user utility. DAS 2.0 includes an updated environment model and enhanced orbital propagators and reentry-survivability models. The ORDEM96 debris environment model has been replaced by ORDEM2000 in DAS 2.0, which is also designed to accept anticipated revisions to the environment definition. Numerous upgrades have also been applied to the assessment of human casualty potential due to reentering debris. Routines derived from the Object Reentry Survival Analysis Tool, Version 6 (ORSAT 6), determine which objects are assessed to survive reentry, and the resulting risk of human casualty is calculated directly based upon the orbital inclination and a future world population database. When evaluating reentry risks, the user may enter up to 200 unique hardware components for each launched object, in up to four nested levels. This last feature allows the software to more accurately model components that are exposed below the initial breakup altitude. The new DAS 2.0 provides an updated set of tools for users to assess their mission s compliance with the NASA Safety Standard and does so with a clear and easy-to-understand interface. The new native Microsoft Windows graphical user interface (GUI) is a vast improvement over the previous DOS-based interface. In the new version, functions are more-clearly laid out, and the GUI includes the standard Windows-style Help functions. The underlying routines within the DAS code are also improved.

Opiela, J.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Cloud Computing Option for Modeling the Debris Environment

NASA’s Digital Transformation Initiative aims to promote the agency’s adoption of current and evolving digital technologies. Through agency-wide collaboration with other NASA teams, the Office of Safety and Mission Assurance (OSMA) has directed the Orbital Debris Program Office and the Meteoroid Environment Office to integrate cloud computing technologies in their publicly released software models: the Orbital Debris Engineering Model (ORDEM) and the Meteoroid Engineering Model (MEM). Decoupling the user interface from the backend processor was key for the software packages to run on a cloud computing framework. Benefits to this design include horizontal scaling of computing resources, user authentication and authorization, and automated deployment. Both models are hosted on a cloud computing platform supported by the NASA authorized IT security and compliance framework. This paper focuses on the new ORDEM web application, which includes the current features of the publicly released ORDEM software with an upgraded frontend design. The underlying ORDEM processor is run on a cloud container, allowing the user to run multiple spacecraft and telescope/radar mode simulations. Featuresexclusive to the ORDEM web application, such as importing multiple TLEs, auto-generated plotting, and the ability to check runtime progress are discussed. Comparisons between the current ORDEM software and the web application are summarized.

Andrew Vavrin↗
NASA NTRS2023

Cloud Computing Option for Modeling the Debris Environment

NASA’s Digital Transformation Initiative aims to promote the agency’s adoption of current and evolving digital technologies. Through agency-wide collaboration with other NASA teams, the Office of Safety and Mission Assurance (OSMA) has directed the Orbital Debris Program Office and the Meteoroid Environment Office to integrate cloud computing technologies into their publicly released software models: the Orbital Debris Engineering Model (ORDEM) and the Meteoroid Engineering Model (MEM). Decoupling the user interface from the backend processor was key for the software packages to run on a cloud computing framework. Benefits to this design include horizontal scaling of computing resources, user authentication and authorization, and automated deployment. Both models are hosted on a cloud computing platform supported by the NASA authorized IT security and compliance framework. This paper focuses on the new ORDEM web application, which includes the current features of the publicly released ORDEM software with an upgraded frontend design, although parallels between ORDEM and MEM are also discussed. The underlying ORDEM processor is run on a cloud container, allowing the user to run multiple spacecraft and telescope/radar mode simulations. Features exclusive to the ORDEM web application, such as importing multiple TLEs, auto-generated plotting, and the ability to check runtime progress are discussed. Comparisons between the current ORDEM software and the web application are summarized.

Andrew Vavrin↗
NASA NTRS2024

Bumper Implementation of LMEEM

The Hypervelocity Impact Technology (HVIT) group at the NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC) maintains the Bumper 3 computer program (referred to as “Bumper”) to perform Micrometeoroid and Orbital Debris (MMOD) risk assessments for spacecraft. To perform its calculations, this program requires detailed mathematical models of the space environments and can include those models representing orbital debris, micrometeoroids, and lunar ejecta. The lunar ejecta environment is a projectile environment specific to the lunar surface. Due to the Moon’s lack of an atmosphere, meteoroids frequently strike the lunar surface. When this happens, the impact ejects material radially away from the impact point, which can pose a potential impact hazard to surface-based hardware. This lunar ejecta environment was previously described in 1969, in NASA Special Publication SP-8013, which was used as the basis for a model that will be referred to in this document as the “SP-8013 environment model,” or simply, “SP-8013.” Since around 2020, this model has been used in MMOD risk assessments for the Human Landing System (HLS) program and other lunar surface programs. A new lunar meteoroid ejecta environment was developed via a computer code named Lunar Meteoroid Ejecta Engineering Model (LMEEM), produced by the Natural Environments Branch (NEB) at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC). A global lunar surface environment definition using LMEEM is to be provided in the Cross-Program Design Specification for Natural Environments (DSNE) Revision J in 2024. Contact the NASA MSFC Natural Environments Branch for an in-depth discussion of the LMEEM environment model and its derivation. This environment model will supersede SP-8013 for MMOD risk assessments. To perform such assessments, Bumper must read data from text files output by LMEEM and use that data in risk calculations. The purpose of this document is to: •Demonstrate verification that the Bumper code has properly implemented the LMEEM environment model (Section 3) •Discuss the LMEEM environment as understood through an initial environment file (Section 4) •Compare the calculated risk due to the SP-8013 and LMEEM models (Section 5)

Bumper↗
NASA NTRS2010

Data Collected During the Post-Flight Survey of Micrometeoroid and Orbital Debris Impact Features on the Hubble Wide Field Planetary Camera 2

Over a period of five weeks during the summer of 2009, personnel from the NASA's Orbital Debris Program Office and Meteoroid Environment Office performed a post-flight examination of the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) Wide Field Planetary Camera 2 (WFPC-2) radiator. The objective was to record details about all micrometeoroid and orbital debris (MMOD) impact features with diameters of 300 micron and larger. The WFPC-2 was located in a clean room at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center. Using a digital microscope, the team examined and recorded position, diameter, and depth information for each of 685 craters. Taking advantage of the digital microscope's data storage and analysis features, the actual measurements were extracted later from the recorded images, in an office environment at the Johnson Space Center. Measurements of the crater include depth and diameter. The depth was measured from the undisturbed paint surface to the deepest point within the crater. Where features penetrate into the metal, both the depth in metal and the paint thickness were measured. In anticipation of hypervelocity tests and simulations, several diameter measurements were taken: the spall area, the area of any bare metal, the area of any discolored ("burned") metal, and the lips of the central crater. In the largest craters, the diameter of the crater at the surface of the metal was also measured. The location of each crater was recorded at the time of inspection. This paper presents the methods and results of the crater measurement effort, including the size and spatial distributions of the impact features. This effort will be followed by taking the same measurements from hypervelocity impact targets simulating the WFPC-2 radiator. Both data sets, combined with hydrocode simulation, will help validate or improve the MMOD environment in low Earth orbit.

Opiela, J. N.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Parametric analysis: SOC meteoroid and debris protection

The meteoroid and man made space debris environments of an Earth orbital manned space operations center are discussed. Protective shielding thickness and design configurations for providing given levels of no penetration probability were also calculated. Meteoroid/debris protection consists of a radiator/shield thickness, which is actually an outer skin, separated from the pressure wall, thickness by a distance. An ideal shield thickness, will, upon impact with a particle, cause both the particle and shield to vaporize, allowing a minimum amount of debris to impact the pressure wall itself. A shield which is too thick will crater on the outside, and release small particles of shield from the inside causing damage to the pressure wall. Inversely, if the shield is too thin, it will afford no protection, and the backup must provide all necessary protection. It was concluded that a double wall concept is most effective.

Kowalski, R.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Failure Mechanisms of Ni-H2 and Li-Ion Batteries Under Hypervelocity Impacts

Lithium-Ion (Li-Ion) batteries have yielded significant performance advantages for many industries, including the aerospace industry, and have been selected to replace nickel hydrogen (Ni-H2) batteries for the International Space Station (ISS) program to meet the energy storage demands. As the ISS uses its vast solar arrays to generate its power, the solar ar-rays meet their sunlit power demands and supply excess power to battery packs for power de-livery on the sun obscured phase of the approximate 90 minute low Earth orbit. These large battery packs are located on the exterior of the ISS, and as such, the battery packs are ex-posed to external environment threats like naturally occurring meteoroids and artificial orbital debris (MMOD). While the risks from these solid particle environments has been known and addressed to an acceptable risk of failure through shield design, it is not possible to completely eliminate the risk of loss of these assets on orbit due to MMOD, and as such, failure consequences to the ISS have been considered.

Miller, J. E.↗