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DOE OSTI2025

Assessing the Heat Transfer Modeling Capabilities of CFD Software for Involute-Shaped Plate Research Reactors

The ongoing efforts to convert High-Performance Research Reactors (HPRRs) using Highly Enriched Uranium (HEU) to Low-Enriched Uranium (LEU) fuel require reliable thermal–hydraulic assessments of modified core designs. The involute-shaped fuel plates used in several major HPRRs present unique modeling challenges due to their compact core geometries and high heat flux conditions. This study evaluates the capability of three commercial CFD tools, STAR-CCM+, COMSOL, and ANSYS CFX, to predict cladding-to-coolant heat transfer using Reynolds-Averaged Navier–Stokes (RANS) methods within the thermal–hydraulic regimes of involute-shaped plate reactors. Broad sensitivity analysis was conducted across a range of reactor-relevant parameters using two turbulence models (k−ϵ and k−ω SST) and different near-wall treatment strategies. The results were benchmarked against the Sieder–Tate correlation and experimental data from historic studies. The codes produced consistent results, showing good agreement with the empirical correlation of Sieder–Tate and the experimental measurements. The findings support the use of these commercial CFD codes as effective tools for assessing the thermal–hydraulic performance of involute-shaped plate HPRRs and guide future LEU core development.

CFD↗

DOE OSTI2024

Investigation of Correlation Methods for Use in Criticality Safety

Although their adoption by practitioners has been limited, the introduction of similarity indices in criticality safety was a major step forward in reducing the reliance on expert judgement in discerning applicable experiments for the validation of new appliations in criticality safety analyses. Similarity indices have been successfully employed in bias trending and data assimilation techniques, but it is often unclear which acceptance criteria should be used. In their 2004 paper, Broadhead et al. specify the most widely used similarity parameter, ck, as an acceptance cutoff at 0.9. (Broadhead et al., ”Sensitivity and Uncertainty-Based Criticality Safety Validation Techniques,” Nucl. Sci. Eng. 146, 340–366, 2004). Experiments with a ck < 0.9 are often not considered applicable for code validation. This heuristic is based on quantitative studies and engineering judgement, but in some cases, experiments with ck < 0.9 can be used to accurately estimate computational bias. This suggests that further analysis is needed to determine what components of ck are driving applicability and accuracy in bias estimation. For cases in which applicable experiments may not be available (as is the case with UF6 transport canisters), understanding what distinguishes experiments in providing adequate bias estimates aside from just the similarity index is particularly necessary. To further the goal to better interpret ck values, several visualization tools were developed to assist in the investigation of which components of ck are driving applicability.

ck↗

DOE OSTI2024

Sensitivity Analysis in the Presence of Intrinsic Stochasticity for Discrete Fracture Network Simulations

Abstract Large‐scale discrete fracture network (DFN) simulators are standard fare for studies involving the sub‐surface transport of particles since direct observation of real world underground fracture networks is generally infeasible. While these simulators have successfully been used in several engineering applications, estimates of output quantities of interest (QoI) — such as breakthrough time of particles reaching the edge of the system — suffer from two distinct types of uncertainty. A run of a DFN simulator requires several parameters to be set that dictate the placement and size of fractures, the density of fractures, and the overall permeability of the system; uncertainty on the proper parameters will lead to uncertainty in the QoI, called epistemic uncertainty. Furthermore, since these input settings to DFN simulators control the stochastic processes which place fractures and govern flow, understanding how this randomness affects the QoI requires several runs of the simulator at distinct random seeds. The uncertainty in the QoI attributed to different realizations (i.e., different seeds) of the same random process (i.e., identical input parameters) leads to a second type of uncertainty, called aleatoric uncertainty. In this paper, we perform a Sensitivity Analysis, which directly attributes the uncertainty observed in the QoI to the epistemic uncertainty from each input parameter and to the aleatoric uncertainty. Beyond the specific takeaways on which input variables influence uncertainty in the QoI the most, a major contribution of this paper is the introduction of a statistically rigorous workflow for characterizing the uncertainty in DFN flow simulations that exhibit heteroskedasticity.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

A heat and mass transfer model for evaluation of damaged cesium chloride radiological sources

Radiological sources are vital to many applications, and typically contain byproducts from waste streams which decay over time to form complex mixtures of elements. Daughter products resulting from these decay processes can introduce complicating factors to the integrity and safety of the vessel that contains the radiological material. Sources containing cesium 137 ( 137 Cs) are of particular interest, because the decay of this isotope produces barium metal which reacts readily and exothermically with oxygen. This work employs physics-based numerical tools to examine the thermal response of a radiological source containing a mixture of cesium and barium in the event that vessel walls are damaged and atmospheric gases contact source material. A parametric study was conducted to determine the sensitivity of the response to various factors, including vessel geometry, source material age, the degree of vessel damage, and other parameters. Here, it was found that the peak temperatures that occurred within the source material strongly depend on these parameters, particularly vessel geometry and age, which determine whether a breach would be a relatively minor accident or a catastrophic incident. Finally, the model’s sensitivity to uncertain thermophysical properties is discussed.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

DOE OSTI2025

Development and application of two-step uncertainty propagation and sensitivity analysis methodology for fast reactor safety analysis

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) in nuclear reactors for transients is directly linked with safety assessment through the cross-sections uncertainties, provided as a covariance matrix, which are propagated through the reactor system to output of interest pertaining to reactor safety, such as peak temperatures in fuel/clad/coolant. Using a two-step approach, uncertainties are first quantified and propagated from basic input variables (such as reaction cross-sections) to intermediate quantities (such as reactivity feedback coefficients) through lattice level calculations. Uncertainties of intermediate quantities (from the first step) are then propagated through the system transient calculations, in the second step, to obtain uncertainties on reactor safety output parameters of interest. The scope of this work consists of Uncertainty Quantification & Propagation of nuclear data uncertainties that are highly correlated through unprotected transient overpower and unprotected loss of flow to assess their impact on core safety parameters. This two-step approach in the presence of covariance renders the sensitivity analysis very challenging. In fact, usually the sensitivity analysis is restricted to each step, which limits its application since the sensitivities between the system output quantities and the basic input variables are difficult to obtain. Here, in this work, we address this issue by proposing a simple, general methodology to combine the sensitivity indices obtained in each step by assuming the model behavior being linear. For the first step Generalized Perturbation theory based indices are used while in the second step the recently studied Johnson indices. The uncertainty quantification and sensitivity methodologies discussed here are demonstrated on a generic LFR design which is based on the 500 MWth demonstration Lead-cooled fast reactor (DLFR) using oxide fuel, developed by Westinghouse Electric Company (WEC).

42 - ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Formation trajectories of solution-processed perovskite thin films from mixed solvents

The engineering of mixed-solvent formulations and their evaporation conditions are key to reproducible perovskite coatings for high-performance photovoltaics. Here, we report a lumped-parameter evaporation model to predict the evolution of a perovskite ink liquid film over time (solvent ratio, solute concentration, and film thickness). The drying-rate model is validated via in situ film-thickness measurements, and the predicted transient liquid film state is mapped as a process path. These methods allow for the prediction of process sensitivity to local environmental factors and the understanding and visualization of a broader processing parameter space enabled through the coupling of process and ink engineering. Process maps are applied to create a new framework for scalable perovskite coating development with a goal of improving the reproducibility and transferability of perovskite fabrication. This approach is demonstrated with blade-coated FA 0.83 Cs 0.17 PbI 3 photovoltaic devices, improving the photovoltaic conversion efficiency from 17.5% ± 1.7% to 20.3% ± 0.6%.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

A Bayesian approach to the long-baseline neutrino oscillation sensitivity of DUNE

The sensitivity of the Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE) to neutrino oscillation is evaluated using a Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach. This analysis uses the same underlying sensitivity inputs as previous DUNE studies [Eur. Phys. J. C 80, 978 (2020)], and therefore does not present updated DUNE sensitivities, but instead explores the additional inferences accessible using a Bayesian approach. We present four-dimensional posterior probability distributions of the oscillation parameters, highlighting the breadth of correlation in the parameter space of interest, especially between $\sin^2 θ_{23}$ and $\sin^2 θ_{13}$. We exploit the flexibility of the Bayesian framework to incorporate parameter constraints post hoc and assess the impact of applying a reactor short-baseline $θ_{13}$ constraint. A significant increase in the sensitivity to the $θ_{23}$ octant is found when including the constraint. Posterior distributions of derived quantities can be easily constructed from MCMC results. This work presents the first study of DUNE's sensitivity to the Jarlskog invariant, $J$, a quantity that provides a parametrisation-independent measure of charge-parity violation in the leptonic sector.

Abbaslu, Saeed [IPM, Tehran] (ORCID:00000003356771↗

DOE OSTI2025

ThO 2 and Th 1– x U x O 2 Nanoscale Materials and Thin Films for Nuclear Science Applications

This study investigates the dynamics and mechanisms of solution combustion synthesis (SCS) for the preparation of nanoscale ThO 2 and Th 1–x U x O 2 materials, utilizing metal nitrates (Th(NO 3 ) 4 and UO 2 (NO 3 ) 2 ) and acetylacetone (C 5 H 8 O 2 ) as reactants dissolved in a 2-methoxyethanol (C 3 H 8 O 2 ) solvent. By combining thermodynamic calculations, dynamic time–temperature profile measurements with differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) and thermogravimetric analysis (TGA), this research reveals how variations in acetylacetone concentration and uranium content influence the structural parameters of the synthesized oxides. The time–temperature measurements show that the heating rate and maximum combustion temperatures are sensitive to acetylacetone concentration. DSC-TGA results indicate shifts in exothermic peak temperatures as the uranium content changes. The complexation between thorium and acetylacetone emerges as a critical factor, impacting combustion parameters and the structural characteristics of the final products. The uniform distribution of Th and U in the Th 1–x U x O 2 solid solution and the formation of nanoscale particles with strained crystallites are considered essential for the low-temperature densification of these materials for nuclear fuel pellet applications. Additionally, high-quality ThO 2 and Th 1–x U x O 2 thin (100–150 nm) films are successfully synthesized via electrospray deposition of combustible solutions followed by a brief period of heat treatment. Furthermore, these films exhibit excellent structural and morphological uniformity, making them ideal candidates for nuclear measurements, irradiation damage studies, and investigations into the physical properties of both pure and mixed oxides.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

Influence of stacking fault energy and hydrogen on deformation mechanisms in high Mn austenitic steels during in-situ tensile testing

High Mn austenitic steels are considered an economical alloy system for hydrogen storage and transport applications. This study used stacking fault energy (SFE) as a design parameter to achieve hydrogen embrittlement (HE)-resistant high Mn austenitic alloys. The role of hydrogen on the deformation mechanisms of low (29 mJ/m 2 ) and high SFE (49 mJ/m 2 ) alloys was evaluated through in-situ neutron diffraction during tensile loading. Hydrogen-precharging increased yield strength, partly due to hydrogen-induced lattice distortion (i.e., solute strengthening). Hydrogen accelerated the increase in defect density, including dislocations and stacking faults. The formation of planar deformation structures (twins and stacking faults), relative to dislocations, plays a critical role in promoting hydrogen-assisted fracture. The stacking fault frequency parameter obtained from neutron diffraction quantifies planar deformation tendencies, correlated with HE sensitivity. The higher SFE alloy exhibited greater resistance to HE, associated with the reduced propensity to form stacking faults and twins upon deformation in the hydrogen-precharged condition.

High Mn austenitic steel↗

DOE OSTI2026

Effects of negative triangularity on microinstabilities in a low-recycling lithium-wall spherical tokamak

In this work, we present a linear gyrokinetic study of the impact of negative triangularity (NT) on microinstabilities in the Lithium Tokamak eXperiment-β (LTX-β), a low-recycling spherical tokamak with liquid lithium plasma-facing components that produce flat electron-temperature profiles [Elliott et al., IEEE Trans. Plasma Sci. 48, 1382 (2020)]. While NT is widely recognized as a stabilizing mechanism and often associated with improved confinement in conventional tokamaks, this study reveals that its effect is not universally stabilizing in the parameter regime of LTX-β and is shown to be highly sensitive to local equilibria. Using local linear simulations with the GS2 code [Kotschenreuther et al., Comput. Phys. Commun. 88, 128 (1995)] at ρ=0.3, 0.5, and 0.8 for two representative discharges (#103955 and #109355), and employing the Miller equilibrium model to isolate shaping effects, we find that NT can transition from stabilizing to destabilizing depending on magnetic shear, safety factor, and electron-temperature gradient. In shot #103955, NT reduces growth rates across radii, with strongest stabilization at the edge, whereas in shot #109355, it is stabilizing in the core but destabilizing at mid-radius and edge under experimental conditions. Parametric scans show that flattening the electron-temperature profile, increasing magnetic shear, and reducing the safety factor recover NT stabilization. These results demonstrate that NT stabilization is tunable rather than intrinsic and requires coordinated control of magnetic geometry and gradient drive.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian inference of nuclear-matter density from proton scattering

Background: Proton elastic scattering at intermediate energy is widely employed as a tool for determining the matter radius of atomic nuclei. Here, the sensitivity of the approach relies on high-resolution measurements at small scattering angles and low-momentum transfer. Under these conditions, the Glauber multiple scattering theory accurately describes the proton-nucleus elastic cross section. Purpose: Investigate the sensitivity of the Glauber multiple scattering theory to uncertainties associated with input parameters such as the nuclear-matter density distribution and nucleon-nucleon data. Method: A joint Bayesian inference was performed using 12 angular distributions of elastic scattering at different energies on 58 Ni, 90 Zr, and 208 Pb targets. A Metropolis-Hastings algorithm was implemented to make an uncertainty quantification analysis for the input parameters used in the Glauber multiple scattering theory. Results: The experimental cross sections were fitted simultaneously using a joint Bayesian inference approach. Posterior probability density distributions of 42 input parameters were obtained from the analysis. A moderate correlation between the nuclear density parameters and the nucleon-nucleon cross sections was found. This correlation impacts the extraction of the nuclear-matter radius. Conclusions: The present analysis provided a consistent method for extracting the nuclear-matter density distribution of 58 Ni, 90 Zr, and 208 Pb from data across different incident energies. Due to the correlation of the nucleon-nucleon cross sections with the other input parameters, a constrained Bayesian inference using free nucleon-nucleon cross section data was performed. The nuclear-matter radii obtained from the analysis are in good agreement with multiple results reported in the literature.

190 ≤ A ≤ 219↗

DOE OSTI2024

Prospects for Light Dark Matter Searches at Large-Volume Neutrino Detectors

We propose a new approach to search for light dark matter (DM), with keV–GeV mass, via inelastic nucleus scattering at large-volume neutrino detectors such as Borexino, DUNE, Super-K, Hyper-K, and JUNO. The approach uses inelastic nuclear scattering of cosmic-ray boosted DM, enabling a low-background search for DM in these experiments. Large neutrino detectors, with higher thresholds than dark matter detectors, can be used, since the nuclear deexcitation lines are O ( 10 ) MeV . Using a hadrophilic dark-gauge-boson-portal model as a benchmark, we show that the nuclear inelastic channels generally provide better sensitivity than the elastic scattering for a large region of light DM parameter space. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Dutta, Bhaskar↗

DOE OSTI2024

Sensitivity of Arctic Clouds to Ice Microphysical Processes in the NorESM2 Climate Model

Abstract Ice formation remains one of the most poorly represented microphysical processes in climate models. While primary ice production (PIP) parameterizations are known to have a large influence on the modeled cloud properties, the representation of secondary ice production (SIP) is incomplete and its corresponding impact is therefore largely unquantified. Furthermore, ice aggregation is another important process for the total cloud ice budget, which also remains largely unconstrained. In this study, we examine the impact of PIP, SIP, and ice aggregation on Arctic clouds, using the Norwegian Earth System Model, version 2 (NorESM2). Simulations with both prognostic and diagnostic PIP show that heterogeneous freezing alone cannot reproduce the observed cloud ice content. The implementation of missing SIP mechanisms (collisional breakup, drop shattering, and sublimation breakup) in NorESM2 improves the modeled ice properties, while improvements in liquid content occur only in simulations with prognostic PIP. However, results are sensitive to the description of collisional breakup. This mechanism, which dominates SIP in the examined conditions, is very sensitive to the treatment of the sublimation correction factor, a poorly constrained parameter that is included in the utilized parameterization. Finally, variations in ice aggregation treatment can also significantly impact cloud properties, mainly through their impact on collisional breakup efficiency. Overall, enhancement in ice production through the addition of SIP mechanisms and the reduction in ice aggregation (in line with radar observations of shallow Arctic clouds) result in enhanced cloud cover and decreased TOA radiation biases, compared to satellite measurements, especially during the cold months. Significance Statement Arctic clouds remain a large source of uncertainty in projections of the future climate due to the poor representation of the microphysical processes that govern their life cycle. Ice formation is among the least understood processes. While it is widely recognized that better constraints on primary ice production (PIP) are needed to improve existing parameterizations, we show that secondary ice production (SIP) and ice aggregation can have also a significant impact on ice number concentrations. Constraining ice formation through the addition of missing SIP mechanisms and reducing ice aggregation can improve the representation of the cloud macrophysical properties and enhance total cloud cover in the Arctic region, which in turn contributes to decreased TOA radiation biases in the cold months.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

DOE OSTI2024

Search for Neutral Heavy Scalars in ttZ Events Using 13 TeV pp Collisions at CMS

This thesis presents a search for a heavy pseudoscalar particle, A, which decays into a lighterscalar, H, and a Z boson within the Two-Higgs-Doublet Model (2HDM). We focus on Zboson decays to leptons, with H decays into a t t ̄ pair. The search uses the Asimov dataset–a theoretical dataset generated to predict the expected results for discovery and exclusion based on conditions from proton-proton collisions at the LHC, atintegrated luminosity of 138f b−1, as recorded by the CMS detector. The analysis focuses on events with three charged leptons, two of which come from the Z boson decay and one from a top quark decay. The expected results suggest the search has high sensitivity, showing discovery potential across much of the 2HDM Type-II parameter space, with possible deviations from the Standard Model background exceeding 5σ significance. The search sets upper limits on the cross-section times branching ratio, assuming narrow particle widths, for A masses up to 2100 GeV and H masses up to 1900 GeV. The results are interpreted in the 2HDM Type-II framework to exclude certain regions of parameter space at the 95% confidence level as a function of particle masses and variables such as tanβ and cos(β−α). The findings highlight the potential reach implications of future search in this parameter region.

Rudrabhatla, Sahithi [Illinois U., Chicago]↗

DOE OSTI2025

Powering the Woods Hole X-Spar Buoy with Ocean Wave Energy—A Control Co-Design Feasibility Study

Despite its success in measuring air–sea exchange, the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution’s (WHOI) X-Spar Buoy faces operational limitations due to energy constraints, motivating the integration of an energy harvesting apparatus to improve its deployment duration and capabilities. This work explores the feasibility of an augmented, self-powered system in two parts. Part 1 presents the collaborative design between X-Spar developers and wave energy researchers translating user needs into specific functional requirements. Based on requirements like desired power levels, deployability, survivability, and minimal interference with environmental data collection, unsuitable concepts are pre-eliminated from further feasibility study consideration. In part 2, we focus on one of the promising concepts: an internal rigid body wave energy converter. We apply control co-design methods to consider commercial of the shelf hardware components in the dynamic models and investigate the concept’s power conversion capabilities using linear 2-port wave-to-wire models with concurrently optimized control algorithms that are distinct for every considered hardware configuration. During this feasibility study we utilize two different control algorithms, the numerically optimal (but acausal) benchmark and the optimized damping feedback. We assess the sensitivity of average power to variations in drive-train friction, a parameter with high uncertainty, and analyze stroke limitations to ensure operational constraints are met. Our results indicate that a well-designed power take-off (PTO) system could significantly extend the WEC-Spar’s mission by providing additional electrical power without compromising data quality.

autonomous systems↗

DOE OSTI2024

Simulating the Phonon Collection Efficiency in KIPMDs

Kinetic inductance phonon-mediated (KIPM) detectors use microwave kinetic inductance detectors (MKIDs) to read out phonon signals in the substrate. They are a promising class of detectors to be used in light dark matter (DM) searches due to their potential eV-scale sensitivity and native frequency-domain multiplexability. In order to improve upon the design of these detectors, simulations are needed to understand the effects of detector design on measurable physical parameters including the phonon collection efficiency, $\eta_{ph}$, which is defined as the ratio of phonon energy detected by the sensitive target element to the incident energy deposited in the substrate. This work simulates the phonon collection efficiency for a KIPMD currently operated at the Northwestern EXperimental Underground Site (NEXUS).

Dang, Stella Q.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Simulating the Phonon Collection Efficiency in Kinetic Inductance Phonon-Mediated Detectors

Kinetic inductance phonon-mediated (KIPM) detectors use microwave kinetic inductance detectors (MKIDs) to read out phonon signals in the substrate. They are a promising class of detectors to be used in light dark matter (DM) searches due to their potential eV-scale sensitivity and native frequency-domain multiplexability. In order to improve upon the design of these detectors, simulations are needed to understand the effects of detector design on measurable physical parameters including the phonon collection efficiency, $\eta_{ph}$, which is defined as the ratio of phonon energy detected by the sensitive target element to the incident energy deposited in the substrate. This work simulates the phonon collection efficiency for two existing detector architectures to study phonon absorption at substrate-sensor interfaces and phonon loss to non-sensitive detector elements.

Dang, Stella Q.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Energy storage in combined gas-electric energy transitions models: The case of California

California’s vision for a net-zero future by 2045 relies heavily on variable renewable energy systems. Thus, energy storage - particularly long-duration storage - could play a fundamental role in reliably supplying low-carbon electricity. We study energy storage using the BRIDGES model, a combined gas-electric capacity expansion model for California across multiple investment periods (2025-2045), modeled with progressively decreasing carbon emission targets to a zero emissions by 2045. This least-cost optimization model includes renewable gas production via power-to-gas, long-term storage of energy in gaseous form, electric energy storage such as through batteries and hydrogen storage, and renewable energy generation, all with capacity tracking and investment. Multiple scenarios are evaluated to examine the sensitivity of the optimal storage portfolio to system-level and sector-level parameters. The scenario results show that all electric energy storage systems - which vary in storage duration - are deployed and required in a net-zero California in 2045, amounting to around 75 GW of storage capacity. Lithium ion systems make up approximately 80% of this power capacity and supply most short-run storage needs. Hydrogen storage - in the form of a power-to-gas-to-power system - emerges as a replacement to conventional natural gas storage, comprising most of the total energy storage capacity (~ 4 TWh). This capacity is less than 5% of the current natural gas storage capacity (94 TWh), indicating sufficient room for repurposing part of the gas infrastructure. A demand-side sensitivity analysis proves that higher electricity demand correlates with more builds of Li-ion batteries, while higher industrial heat demand leads to more builds of long-duration storage systems in a net-zero economy. Furthermore, power-to-gas systems satisfy part of the industrial heat demand by locally supplying renewable gas, which overtakes the traditional centralized gas storage and transfers through pipelines, casting significant doubts on the future of the large-scale gas infrastructure.

03 NATURAL GAS↗