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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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DOE OSTI2025

Advanced Transmission Technologies – GETs and HPCs Session 1: ATT Foundations and Dynamic Line Ratings (DLRs)

The INL TADA GETs Cohort Session 1, held on November 4, 2025, convened experts to address the integration of advanced transmission technologies, including Grid-Enhancing Technologies (GETs) and High Performance Conductors (HPCs), with a focus on digital assurance challenges. The session highlighted the growing importance of cybersecurity, supply chain transparency, reliability, and business risk management in deploying GETs, especially Dynamic Line Ratings (DLRs). Participants examined how expanded attack surfaces, limited vendor pools, and new regulatory requirements—such as FERC Orders 881, 2023, and 1920—are influencing utilities and technology providers. The workshop underscored the need for cyber-informed engineering, secure-by-design principles, and practical risk management strategies, while fostering collaboration and knowledge sharing among industry peers. Technical discussions covered the evolution from static to dynamic line ratings, complexities of cloud-based architectures, and NERC CIP compliance challenges. The session concluded with a collaborative risk exercise and a preview of future workshops on advanced power flow control and transmission topology optimization, reinforcing the cohort’s commitment to advancing digital assurance in the energy sector.

24 - POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

New Era Towards Autonomous Additive Manufacturing: A Review of Recent Trends and Future Perspectives

Abstract The Additive Manufacturing (AM) landscape has significantly transformed in alignment with Industry 4.0 principles, primarily driven by the integration of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Digital Twin (DT). However, current Intelligent Additive Manufacturing (IAM) systems face limitations such as fragmented AI tool usage and suboptimal human-machine interaction (HMI). This paper reviews existing IAM solutions, emphasizing control, monitoring, process autonomy, and end-to-end integration, and identifies key limitations, such as the absence of a high-level controller for global decision-making. To address these gaps, we propose a transition from IAM to Autonomous Additive Manufacturing (AAM), featuring a hierarchical framework with four integrated layers: knowledge, generative solution, operational, and cognitive. In the cognitive layer, AI agents notably enable machines to independently observe, analyze, plan, and execute operations that traditionally require human intervention. These capabilities streamline production processes and expand the possibilities for innovation, particularly in sectors like in-space manufacturing (ISM). Additionally, this paper discusses the role of AI in self-optimization and lifelong learning, positing that the future of AM will be characterized by a symbiotic relationship between human expertise and advanced autonomy, fostering a more adaptive, resilient manufacturing ecosystem.

Fan, Haolin↗
DOE OSTI2024

Technical Impacts of Light-Duty and Heavy-Duty Transportation Electrification on a Coordinated Transmission and Distribution System

In this study, we propose a strategy to model the required spatiotemporal charging demand from light-duty (LD) and medium- and heavy-duty (MHD) electric vehicles (EVs) using actual transportation data by mapping the demand for the required EV charging to a realistic and coordinated distribution and transmission electric grid at the predicted times of the day to study their impact on the power system in a variety of load, weather, and EV penetration scenarios. This work is the first study that includes the actual weather data and transportation data with realistic and coordinated distribution and transmission grid data in a large industry-scale level study. The main goal of this study is to identify possible issues and required upgrades in the electric grid, caused by an increase in EV integration. The transmission case study is a large grid with 6717 buses over a Texas footprint, and the distribution grid is over Houston, a city in Texas, covering over three million customers. The resulting overloads and voltage violations experienced in the system are discussed, and required planning upgrades to avoid these issues are suggested.

AC optimal power flow (AC-OPF)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Overview of the KSTAR experiments and future plan

The Korea Superconducting Tokamak Advanced Research (KSTAR) device has recently entered a new phase of operation following the installation of a tungsten mono-block divertor, providing a unique platform to investigate high-performance, long-pulse plasma scenarios for future reactors. The 2023–2024 experimental campaigns demonstrated significant progress in commissioning the tungsten divertor, developing plasma operation scenarios, and achieving real-time control. Comparative studies revealed increased core radiation losses and associated performance degradation relative to the carbon divertor environment. Alleviation strategies, such as optimized neutral beam injection timing, boron powder seeding, and impurity control through gas puffing, were shown to reduce tungsten accumulation and extend high-performance phases, including record H-mode operation exceeding 100 s. International collaboration enabled the first demonstration of high poloidal beta scenarios with an internal transport barrier on KSTAR. Advances in control included upgraded real-time resonant magnetic perturbation schemes and disruption forecasting. Furthermore, divertor detachment control using a new surrogate-model-based approach with real-time radiation imaging demonstrated active impurity and heat flux management. Supported by enhanced heating, current drive, and diagnostic systems, these achievements offer valuable insights into tungsten impurity behavior, transport physics, and control strategies for future reactors including ITER. Planned upgrades toward a full-tungsten wall and ITER-aligned real-time plasma control will further establish KSTAR as a leading experimental platform for developing operational scenarios required to achieve steady-state, burning plasma conditions.

KSTAR↗
DOE OSTI2026

Volume Change from Solidification Correlation for Hanford Tank Waste.

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Hanford Field Office’s primary mission is to safely and effectively treat Hanford’s tank waste and deliver environmental remediation. Mixed radioactive waste is stored in the underground tanks at the Hanford Site. It was recently estimated that retrieval of the waste in the 200 West Area underground tanks in the SY, S, SX, and U Tank Farms will result in about 41 million gallons of mixed low-level waste (MLLW) (RPP-RPT-65147, Rev. 1). The current plan is to retrieve at least 22 S, SX, and U Farm tanks and pretreat1 to produce pretreated tank waste (PTW) which will be further treated (including solidification /immobilization) for Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) Land Disposal Restriction (LDR) organics and inorganics before being transferred to an offsite out-of-state facility for disposal (RPP-PLAN-66135, Rev. 2). In addition, solidified PTW from the 200 East Area may also be transferred to an offsite out-of-state facility for disposal to ensure availability of critical Double-Shell Tank space, meet retrieval obligations, and optimize 200 East Area operations.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2025

Ion-Pair Proton Exchange Membrane Fuel Cells for Heavy-duty Transportation

The purpose of this project is to build a fuel cell prototype that demonstrates high temperature proton exchange membrane fuel cell technology (HT PEMFC) commercial readiness. It advances from a technology baseline established in a prior CRADA in which these same Parties collaborated during the years 2020-2024. These efforts are aligned with the intentions of the DOE Hydrogen Fuel Cell Technology Office (HFTO) L’Innovator Pilot Program. Participant observes that its US-based competitive advantage may be improved by further optimizing Laboratory inventions. This CRADA is intended to further improve National Laboratory compositions and to develop commercial HT PEMFC membrane electrode assemblies (MEAs) that perform over a range of operating temperatures and relative humidity, that generate power from both low grade and pure hydrogen, and that are resistant to air impurities. Participant’s goal is to advance the commercial competitiveness of National Laboratory technologies in fuel cell products for heavy-duty truck integrators, for stationary power generation, marine applications, and for emerging interest from commercial aviation. The Parties will collaborate on producing a HT PEMFC MEA that integrates LANL ion pair technology and Brookhaven catalyst technology. The Laboratories plan to research and develop compositions for testing and evaluation. The participant will manufacture multiple MEAs based on the Laboratory compositions and will enable selected customers to validate performance characteristics. The Laboratories will convey to Participant the methods of making the National Laboratory compositions such that Participant may reproduce and then scale Laboratory methods into commercial production. Throughout the project, the Laboratories and Participant will iteratively test and optimize the compositions of materials of the MEAs, intending to optimize characteristics such as power density and lifecycle durability. Participant’s intended customers include fuel cells for large trucks, aviation, power back up, marine, and portable power.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Options for Meeting Data Center Demand in Virginia: Focus on GETs and Reconductoring [Slides]

Data center demand growth in Virginia will need to met with many options - GETs and/or reconductoring have the potential to be part of the solution suite in the short-term and medium-term. Almost all GETs and reconductoring technologies have more favorable economics than transmission wires investments considering relatively low levels of existing wide-scale deployment. Deployment of GETs and/or reconductoring is not a one size fits all - requires detailed analysis. The complementary nature of GETs and/or reconductoring impacts have the potential to be synergistic (more congestion relief, more transfer capability, more cost savings - when implemented together).

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Exploring Multidimensional Spatial-Temporal Hydropower Operational Flexibilities by Modeling and Optimizing Water-Constrained Cascading Hydroelectric Systems

Because of unique characteristics such as clean and cost-competitive electricity as well as fast-ramping and storage abilities, the power industry continues to evolve its operation strategies for cascading hydroelectric (CHE) systems for providing enhanced values to the grid, especially under the deeper renewable resource integration. However, existing operation practices of CHEs predate the integration of renewables, which could prohibit the effective utilization of their inherent flexibilities in delivering maximum financial benefits and providing valuable grid services to the power system and electricity market operations. Indeed, modeling and optimizing these resource-limited while flexible CHE assets with uncertainties and imperfect information across multiple spatial-temporal dimensions present significant challenges. To facilitate CHE facility operators in effectively coordinating water usage and hydropower plant operations across multiple timescales, this project aims to fill the existing gaps by developing a suite of accurate water inflow (WI) forecast models as well as enhanced CHE modeling and optimization approaches with proper consideration of their unique characteristics, which would help explore their multidimensional spatial-temporal operational flexibility potentials. The developed approaches could better align reservoir operation strategies with variability and uncertainty of future water availability. They can also promote more effective utilization of multidimensional spatial-temporal hydropower operational flexibility potentials by designing long-term evacuation plans of reservoirs and short-term operation of CHEs, along with their coordination with other types of renewables. The project leverages various resources to facilitate the research and development activities, including actual characteristics data of CHE systems and a library of current and future cases of Portland General Electric (PGE). These realistic data enable the project team to study how to maximize the value of CHEs under current and future portfolios and evaluate opportunities to improve operation practices.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Web-Based Tools for Data-Informed Remedy Optimization: Software Theory and User Guide

This report documents the development and application of two web-based decision-support tools for pump-and-treat (P&T) groundwater remediation systems: PTOLEMY (Pump-and-Treat Optimized Location Evaluation to Maximize Yields) and OPTIMA (Optimization for Pump-and-Treat Implementation, Management, & Assessment). These tools enhance remedy design and management by leveraging advanced computational methods – specifically deep learning and multi-objective optimization – within a user-friendly platform. By integrating data-driven models with established hydrogeological knowledge, PTOLEMY and OPTIMA enable more efficient evaluation of well placement and operational strategies, helping site managers balance multiple remediation objectives under complex conditions. Both tools are implemented as modules within the SOCRATES (Suite Of Comprehensive Rapid Analysis Tools for Environmental Sites) web platform, which provides data access, visualization, and analytics to support remedy optimization across sites in the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Environmental Management complex. PTOLEMY is a rapid screening module designed to identify promising locations for new extraction wells. It employs a multi-channel three-dimensional convolutional neural network (MC3D-CNN) trained on high-fidelity simulation data to predict the relative performance (in terms of contaminant mass recovery) of potential well sites. Through an interactive web interface, PTOLEMY visualizes the probability of high performance across a site, highlighting areas where an extraction well is likely to yield above-threshold contaminant removal over a multi-year period. PTOLEMY’s map-based displays and exportable results support transparent communication of screening analyses. By focusing attention on the most favorable candidate locations, the tool augments traditional engineering judgment and physics-based modeling, providing a data informed basis for subsequent detailed evaluations. OPTIMA is a multi objective optimization module designed to find wellfield layouts and operating schedules that meet various cleanup goals. It quickly evaluates thousands of candidate setups – combinations of well locations, timing, and rates – and returns a small set of best trade-off options for comparison. At its core, OPTIMA uses a U-Net-based surrogate model – a deep-learning emulator of a groundwater flow and transport simulator – to dramatically accelerate scenario evaluations. Coupling this fast surrogate with the NSGA-II (Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II) evolutionary algorithm, OPTIMA explores a wide decision space of well locations and schedules to identify Pareto-optimal solutions that trade off key objectives (e.g., minimizing cleanup time, maximizing contaminant mass removal, and minimizing plume extent). The tool outputs a family of optimal configurations and visualizes their trade-offs (Pareto frontiers of cleanup metrics and maps of optimized well placements). Site managers can use these results to understand the range of viable strategies and to select candidate designs for more detailed verification. OPTIMA is currently under active development and not yet fully released; this guide provides early documentation to support planning and gather user feedback.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Building partnerships for development of sustainable energy systems with atmospheric measurements

Atmospheric dynamics often play a critical role in the sustainability and reliability of diverse forms of energy production. This is especially true for the growing number of renewable energy deployments that harness aspects of the environment for power production. While the University of Memphis has a strong research background in energy systems, we have little experience working with the Earth and Environmental Systems Science Division (EESSD) and their associated User Facilities. Of particular interest to us is the Atmospheric Science Research and the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility to address surface-boundary layer interactions and physical phenomena. One of the major challenges for understanding and developing energy systems and management platforms is accurate modeling/forecasting of atmospheric conditions across disparate spatial and temporal scales. These conditions are often required to understand the lowest levels of the atmospheric boundary layer, but are also important to understand higher atmospheric conditions where aerosols affect cloud development. The objective of this work was to develop partnerships with national laboratories for collaboration on environmental science and its intersection with sustainable energy systems, as well as to leverage the ARM user facility data repositories to enhance our research capabilities in energy systems and their inter-dependence on environmental systems for future engagement with EESSD. Specifically, we accomplished these objectives by (1) developing collaborations with Oakridge National Laboratory ARM Data Science and Integration Group which resulted in student internships, (2) employed ARM data to develope modeling of the atmospheric boundary layer optical turbulence, and (3) optimally-sized large-scale renewable energy systems and their associated energy storage systems with ARM repository data.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Dynamically Learning Incentives for Load Control

As electrical generation becomes more distributed and volatile, and loads become more uncertain, controllability of distributed energy resources (DERs), regardless of their ownership status, will be necessary for grid reliability. Grid operators lack direct control over end-users' grid interactions, such as energy usage, but incentives can influence behavior -- for example, an end-user that receives a grid-driven incentive may adjust their consumption or expose relevant control variables in response. A key challenge in studying such incentives is the lack of data about human behavior, which usually motivates strong assumptions, such as distributional assumptions on compliance or rational utility-maximization. In this paper, we propose a general incentive mechanism in the form of a constrained optimization problem -- our approach is distinguished from prior work by modeling human behavior (e.g., reactions to an incentive) as an arbitrary unknown function. We propose feedback-based optimization algorithms to solve this problem that each leverage different amounts of information and/or measurements. We show that each converges to an asymptotically stable incentive with (near)-optimality guarantees given mild assumptions on the problem. Finally, we evaluate our proposed techniques in voltage regulation simulations on standard test beds. We test a variety of settings, including those that break assumptions required for theoretical convergence (e.g., convexity, smoothness) to capture realistic settings. In this evaluation, our proposed algorithms are able to find near-optimal incentives even when the reaction to an incentive is modeled by a theoretically difficult (yet realistic) function.

demand response↗
DOE OSTI2025

Optimal Economic Dispatch and Load-Following Strategies for Nuclear Integrated Energy Systems

The need for distributed and adaptable energy resources that can handle the growing unpredictability in both supply and demand is rising as the power system continues to modernize. In order to satisfy those needs and maintain grid resilience, nuclear power plants can dynamically control their output, despite typically being used as baseload generators. By incorporating energy storage and renewable energy sources, nuclear integrated energy systems are designed to satisfy the electrical and thermal demands of different end-user applications while ensuring flexible power operation. These systems generate revenue by participating in both wholesale and ancillary services electricity markets, as well as commodity markets for various byproducts generated from coupled industrial processes. This study addresses the economic dispatch efficiency of a tightly coupled nuclear integrated energy system comprising a gigawatt-scale light water reactor, commercialized in the U.S., a high-temperature steam electrolysis unit, a district heating network, and specified electrical loads. To demonstrate the nuclear power plant’s flexibility within the day-ahead unit commitment and economic dispatch framework, while maintaining equilibrium even during periods of refueling outages, this paper develops a mixed-integer linear programming framework that models the subsystems and components of its nuclear steam supply system. A systematic comparative analysis of flexible versus baseload nuclear power plant operation under varying levels of renewable energy integration indicates that flexible operation enhances system profitability by more than 18% while also increasing energy storage utilization, improving reactor responsiveness to load fluctuations, and allowing for greater participation across numerous electricity markets.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Neutrino Program at Fermilab - Enhancing Proton Beam Power and Accelerator Infrastructure

The upcoming long baseline neutrino experiments aim to enhance proton beam power to multi-MW scale and utilize large-scale detectors to address the challenge of limited event statistics. The DUNE experiment at LBNF will test the three neutrino flavor paradigm and directly search for CP violation by studying oscillation signatures in the high intensity $\nu_{\mu}$ (anti-$\nu_{\mu}$) beam to $\nu_e$ (anti-$\nu_e$) measured over a long baseline.\par Higher beam power and improved accelerator up-time will enhance neutrino flux for the neutrino program by increasing the number of protons on target. LBNF/DUNE, as well as PIP-II upgrade and Accelerator Complex Evolution (ACE) plan, play a vital role in this effort. The scientific potential of ACE plan extends beyond neutrino physics, encompassing endeavors such as the Muon Collider, Charged Lepton Flavor Violation (CLFV), Dark Sectors, and exploration of neutrinos beyond DUNE. In the era of higher-power accelerator operation, research in target materials and beam instrumentation is crucial for optimizing design modifications. This abstract discusses Fermilab ACE, the science opportunities it provides, and how Fermilab is pushing the limits of proton beam power and accelerator infrastructure. By tackling neutrino beam challenges and exploring research and development ideas, we are advancing our understanding of fundamental particles and their interactions.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Neutrino Program at Fermilab - Enhancing Proton Beam Power and Accelerator Infrastructure

The upcoming long baseline neutrino experiments aim to enhance proton beam power to multi-MW scale and utilize large-scale detectors to address the challenge of limited event statistics. The DUNE experiment at LBNF will test the three-neutrino flavor paradigm and directly search for CP violation by studying oscillation signatures in the high intensity (anti-) beam to (anti-) measured over a long baseline. Higher beam power and improved accelerator up-time will enhance neutrino flux for the neutrino program by increasing the number of protons on target. LBNF/DUNE, as well as PIP-II upgrade and Accelerator Complex Evolution (ACE) plan, play a vital role in this effort. The scientific potential of ACE plan extends beyond neutrino physics, encompassing endeavors such as the Muon Collider, Charged Lepton Flavor Violation (CLFV), Dark Sectors, and exploration of neutrinos beyond DUNE.\par In the era of higher-power accelerator operation, research in target materials and beam instrumentation is crucial for optimizing design modifications. This abstract discusses Fermilab ACE, the science opportunities it provides, and how Fermilab is pushing the limits of proton beam power and accelerator infrastructure. By tackling neutrino beam challenges and exploring research and development ideas, we are advancing our understanding of fundamental particles and their interactions.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Tuning Catalytically Active Single Sites in Nonstoichiometric, Mixed Metal Oxides for Oxygen Electrocatalysis (Final Technical Report)

The objective of the proposed work is to employ controlled synthesis, advanced characterization, detailed electrochemical testing and theoretical calculations to develop a framework that would guide the design of robust, non-stoichiometric mixed metal oxides for oxygen electrocatalysis. In this research plan, we focus around the idea of tuning the metal ion composition and environment to create single atom centers with the utmost electrocatalytic activity. We hypothesized that tuning the cationic sites in nonstoichiometric mixed metal oxides will lead to single 4d/5d metal surface sites with optimal catalytic activity for low temperature oxygen reduction (ORR) and oxygen evolution (OER) at solid/liquid interfaces. We will focus on different crystal structures of these oxides including Ruddlesden-Popper (R-P) oxides, simple perovskites and pyrochlores due to their flexibility in accommodating different metal cation dopants, and the fact that they represent variations in the cationic arrangements in non-stoichiometric mixed metal oxide structures, which will lead to an understanding of how bulk crystal structure effects catalytic activity and stability of these systems.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2024

Neutrino Program at Fermilab -- Enhancing proton beam power and accelerator infrastructure

The upcoming long baseline neutrino experiments aim to enhance proton beam power to multi-MW scale and utilize large-scale detectors to address the challenge of limited event statistics. The DUNE experiment at LBNF will test the three neutrino flavor paradigm and directly search for CP violation by studying oscillation signatures in the high intensity $\nu_{\mu}$ (anti-$\nu_{\mu}$) beam to $\nu_{e}$ (anti-$\nu_{e}$) measured over a long baseline. Higher beam power and improved accelerator up-time will enhance neutrino flux for the neutrino program by increasing the number of protons on target. LBNF/DUNE, as well as PIP-II upgrade and Accelerator Complex Evolution (ACE) plan, play a vital role in this effort. The scientific potential of ACE plan extends beyond neutrino physics, encompassing endeavors such as the Muon Collider, Charged Lepton Flavor Violation (CLFV), Dark Sectors, and exploration of neutrinos beyond DUNE.\par In the era of higher-power accelerator operation , research in target materials and beam instrumentation is crucial for optimizing design modifications. This abstract discusses Fermilab ACE, the science opportunities it provides, and how Fermilab is pushing the limits of proton beam power and accelerator infrastructure. By tackling neutrino beam challenges and exploring research and development ideas, we are advancing our understanding of fundamental particles and their interactions.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Powering Data Centers with Clean Energy: A Techno-Economic Case Study of Nuclear and Renewable Energy Dependability

Rising data demands from artificial intelligence (AI) and large language models (LLMs) generating images, videos, and text have prompted increased need for larger and more robust data centers in the United States. Major companies interested in these larger data centers face the choice of linking them to existing regional grids, building stand-alone power supplies onsite, or a combination of both. The request, review, and approval process for new transmission lines to grids in the United States, however, has grown in recent years to times spans rivaling those of new construction for nuclear power plants. Building an islanded power supply for each data center is therefore becoming a prominent option. In this case study, several technologies are modeled in techno-economic simulations for long-term system costs subject to fixed electricity demand from a singular data center. A 250 MWe data center is assumed with additional 50 MWe for resiliency. Techno-economic simulations are conducted using the Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON) software, which is a part of the Framework for Optimization of Resources and Economics (FORCE) tool suite. Technologies considered include solar, wind, lithium-ion batteries, and several types of nuclear reactors: large-scale reactors, small modular reactors, and microreactors. A low- and high-cost estimate for each technology is assumed to develop a range of expected economic performance. Low-cost estimates included several clean energy production tax credits. Different combinations of renewable energy generators with nuclear reactors are considered, ranging from a fully renewable-powered data center to a fully nuclear-powered data center. Historic time series of wind and solar availability from the Texas grid are used to train a reduced order model; this model then generates unique time series with similar characteristics of the training dataset. Multiple scenarios of weather and subsequent operations are simulated for each renewable-nuclear combination to determine total costs throughout the project lifetime. Fully renewable-powered configurations required large amounts of installed capacity (GW scale) in the simulations to meet the fixed demand of the data center. This is due to some scenarios in the historical dataset which captured low-wind and low-solar days, requiring over-building of these technologies as well as batteries to compensate for the low amounts of electricity generation. Fully nuclear-powered configurations outperformed the fully renewable and mixed renewable-nuclear configurations in terms of cost, with ranges between $1B and $10B in 2023 USDs compared to $40B+ for fully renewable configurations. Of the nuclear technologies, small modular reactors performed better economically than large-scale nuclear models due to lower projected capital costs, and both performed better than the microreactor models. These results demonstrate the applicability of firm, dispatchable electricity resources from baseload generators like nuclear power plants for operating facilities that run at constant power without daily variability.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Framework for Identifying Building Energy Models of Localized Utility Service Areas Using Smart Meter Data

Bottom-up load modeling of buildings offers a versatile approach to simulating baseline demand and scenarios of future technology evolution and adoption at the individual building level. This capability is essential to understanding how future load shapes may change with the adoption of electric equipment and vehicles, particularly as it relates to grid planning and infrastructure investments. Traditionally, grid planning techniques have used historical load data to predict future load and infrastructure needs. However, with the anticipated rise in adoption of electrification technologies such as heat pumps and electric vehicles, historical data become less reliable predictors of the future. By employing ResStock, a high-fidelity building stock modeling tool, we can fine-tune electrification scenarios and aggregate models to represent varying geographic resolutions of the grid system, while considering the underlying features of homes. This may enable a more accurate and responsive approach to anticipate and plan for the evolving landscape of energy demands. We present a new framework that leverages building stock energy modeling to identify building models that align with the load shapes and housing attributes of buildings with AMI data. This approach applies two model layers: (1) a classification step that identifies the presence of air conditioning, electric heating, and electric water heating, and (2) an optimization routine that identifies building energy models aligning with load profile data from advanced metering infrastructure meters. This report demonstrates one approach to deploying this framework, and presents results for three test cases that use both modeled and AMI data to assess performance. For a test case using AMI data in Fort Collins, Colorado, we observed a median monthly electricity load CV-RMSE of 16.6%, and a top ten daily heating and cooling median absolute percent error of 7.7% and 8.3%, respectively. For each AMI meter, we identify a set of potential energy models so that downstream use-cases can account for uncertainty driven by variability of baseline technologies and occupant behavior, which impact the response to electrification and energy efficiency scenarios. Our results indicate that ResStock has potential as a scalable solution for modeling residential energy demand at local grid resolutions. Its performance depends on location-specific factors, underlying building characteristics, and the level of aggregation, offering a path towards more precise and adaptive distribution grid planning for the evolving energy landscape.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗