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At least 271 records · Page 15

Pore characterization of the Marcellus Shale by nitrogen adsorption and prediction of its gas storage capacity

In a shale gas reservoir, pore characterization is an important factor used to determine gas storage capacity. However, the nanometer (nm)-scale pore system in shale is difficult to explore by traditional optical, scanning electron microscopy, or even nuclear magnetic resonance well logging. We have investigated the pore structure and storage capacity of the Marcellus Shale through integration of petrophysical analysis from laboratory and well-logging data and nitrogen adsorption. The isotherm of Marcellus Shale is a composite isotherm, which has features of type I, type II, and type IV isotherms with type H4 of the hysteresis loop, suggesting slit-like pores developed in the Marcellus Shale. Quantitative analysis of pore volumes from the nitrogen adsorption indicates that density porosity may be more properly used to approximate the shale porosity and estimate the shale gas volume. In addition, the specific surface area, micropore, and mesopore volumes have a positive relationship with the kerogen volume and total organic content (TOC). By using the Langmuir and Brunauer-Emmet-Teller models, the simulated result indicates that the higher adsorbed quantity of the Marcellus Shale could be the result of the increase of micropore volume contributed, by the increase of kerogen or TOC content. The proposed equations rapidly compute TOC, a key parameter to predict gas storage capacity in overmature shale such as the Marcellus Shale.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗

Stellar Rotation of T Tauri Stars in the Orion Star-forming Complex

We present a large-scale study of stellar rotation for T Tauri stars in the Orion star-forming complex. We use the projected rotational velocity ($v\sin (i)$) estimations reported by the APOGEE-2 collaboration as well as individual masses and ages derived from the position of the stars in the HR diagram, considering Gaia-EDR3 parallaxes and photometry plus diverse evolutionary models. We find an empirical trend for $v\sin (i)$ decreasing with age for low-mass stars (0.4M ⊙ < M $\star$ < 1.2M ⊙ ). Our results support the existence of a mechanism linking $v\sin (i)$ to the presence of accreting protoplanetary disks, responsible for regulating stellar rotation on timescales of about 6 Myr, which is the timescale in which most of the T Tauri stars lose their inner disk. Our results provide important constraints to models of rotation in the early phases of evolution of young stars and their disks.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Observation-constrained kinetic modeling of isoprene SOA formation in the atmosphere

Isoprene has the largest global non-methane hydrocarbon emission, and the oxidation of isoprene plays a crucial role in the formation of secondary organic aerosol (SOA). Two primary processes are known to contribute to SOA formation from isoprene oxidation: (1) the reactive uptake of isoprene-derived epoxides on acidic or aqueous particle surfaces and (2) the absorptive gas–particle partitioning of low-volatility oxidation products. In this study, we developed a new multiphase condensed isoprene oxidation mechanism that includes these processes with key molecular intermediates and products. The new mechanism was applied to simulate isoprene gas-phase oxidation products and SOA formation from previously published chamber experiments under a variety of conditions and atmospheric observations during the Southern Oxidant and Aerosol Studies (SOAS) field campaign. Our results show that SOA formation from most of the chamber experiments is reasonably reproduced using our mechanism, except when the concentration ratios of initial nitric oxide to isoprene exceed ~ 2, the formed SOA is significantly underpredicted. The SOAS simulations also reasonably agree with the measurements regarding the diurnal pattern and concentrations of different product categories, while the total isoprene SOA remains underestimated. The molecular compositions of the modeled SOA indicate that multifunctional low-volatility products contribute to isoprene SOA more significantly than previously thought, with a median mass contribution of ~ 57 % to the total modeled isoprene SOA. However, this contribution is intricately intertwined with IEPOX-derived SOA (IEPOX: isoprene-derived epoxydiols), posing challenges for their differentiation using bulk aerosol composition analysis (e.g., the aerosol mass spectrometer with positive matrix factorization). Furthermore, the SOA from these pathways may vary greatly, mainly dependent on the volatility estimation and treatment of particle-phase processes (i.e., photolysis and hydrolysis). Our findings emphasize that the various pathways to produce these low-volatility species should be considered in models to more accurately predict isoprene SOA formation. The new condensed isoprene chemical mechanism can be further incorporated into regional-scale air quality models, such as the Community Multiscale Air Quality Modelling System (CMAQ), to assess isoprene SOA formation on a larger scale.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Quantifying the Known Unknown: Including Marine Sources of Greenhouse Gases in Climate Modeling

Researchers have recently estimated that Arctic submarine permafrost currently traps 60 billion tons of methane and contains 560 billion tons of organic carbon in seafloor sediments and soil, a giant pool of carbon with potentially large feedbacks on the climate system. Unlike terrestrial permafrost, the submarine permafrost system has remained a “known unknown” because of the difficulty in acquiring samples and measurements. Consequently, this potentially large carbon stock never yet considered in global climate models or policy discussions, represents a real wildcard in our understanding of Earth’s climate. This report summarizes our group’s effort at developing a numerical modeling framework designed to produce a first-of-its-kind estimate of Arctic methane gas releases from the marine sediments to the water column, and potentially to the atmosphere, where positive climate feedback may occur. Newly developed modeling capability supported by the Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) program at Sandia National Laboratories now gives us the ability to probabilistically map gas distribution and quantity in the seabed by using a hybrid approach of geospatial machine learning, and predictive numerical thermodynamic ensemble modeling. The novelty in this approach is its ability to produce maps of useful data in regions that are only sparsely sampled, a common challenge in the Arctic, and a major obstacle to progress in the past. By applying this model to the circum-Arctic continental shelves and integrating the flux of free gas from in situ methanogenesis and dissociating gas hydrates from the sediment column under climate forcing, we can provide the most reliable estimate of a spatially and temporally varying source term for greenhouse gas flux that can be used by global oceanographic circulation and Earth system models (such as DOE’s E3SM). The result will allow us to finally tackle the wildcard of the submarine permafrost carbon system, and better inform us about the severity of future national security threats that sustained climate change poses.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Centrifuge modeling and numerical analysis on lateral performance of mono-bucket foundation for offshore wind turbines

The lateral loading performance of the mono-bucket foundation for offshore wind turbines is investigated in this study through a series of centrifuge tests and numerical analysis. Six mono-bucket models are considered to assess the influences of aspect ratio under the ultimate condition. The FE model is validated against the centrifuge test results, and the failure mechanism of the foundation is revealed. The parametric study and sensitivity analysis of the soil parameters are performed in the numerical simulations. A modified theoretical calculation method is proposed to estimate the ultimate lateral capacity of the suction bucket foundation by solving the limit equilibrium equations. A correction term is added in the calculation using the “m” method. The position of the rotation center is calculated, demonstrating a better accuracy compared to the previously reported geometric method. The modified calculation method is verified against the field test, the centrifuge test, and the laboratory test. The method is proved to be applicable in estimating the lateral performance of the mono-bucket foundation in a general form. Finally, this study aims to provide well-documented data and design references for practical engineers.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Coaxial color channel focus evaluation to estimate standoff height in directed energy deposition additive manufacturing

Directed energy deposition (DED) is an additive manufacturing process that is being rapidly adopted by industry and is well suited for the fabrication of complex components in a variety of metal alloys. In laser cladding systems such as DED, powder is blown in a stream to a metal substrate coincident with a laser necessary to deposit molten metal with 3D spatial control. The focus of both the laser and the powder stream are crucial, and best deposition occurs at a predetermined standoff height between the build surface and the print head. Generally, no monitoring of this distance is implemented in commercial DED systems. Due to potential over or under building, the standoff height often changes over time but tends to self-correct. However, inexpensive and minimally intrusive methods to identify optimal standoff are required to provide real-time control to maintain the optimal distance. The present work explores the quantification of the focus of the three-color channels of a coaxial camera to determine the standoff height. An experiment was performed in which a 254 mm wall is built and the standoff height, initially 5.0 mm below the optimal position, was then intentionally increased every 25.4 mm of wall length by an amount of 1.0 mm to a final position 7.0 mm above optimal. Computer vision is demonstrated to monitor the amount of focus in each color band and estimate standoff distance. Finally, a response can be calculated in under 40 ms using simple hardware and can work in most laser-based DED systems.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Capture efficiency and bias from the defect dynamics near grain boundaries in BCC Fe using mesoscale simulations

The capture efficiency describes the capability of a sink, such as a grain boundary (GB), dislocation, and void, to absorb point defects (PDs). The bias defines the difference in capture efficiency between the absorption of a vacancy and dumbbell at a sink. Complete kinetic information on PDs, including diffusion barriers and diffusion orientations, as well as accurate saddle points, are needed to determine the capture efficiency and bias at a sink accurately, which is computationally demanding. Here, in the present study, the Self-Evolving Atomistic Kinetic Monte Carlo (SEAKMC) method was used to investigate the defect dynamics of PDs near different types of grain boundaries (GBs) (with both $\langle$100$\rangle$ and $\langle$110$\rangle$ families) accurately in body-centered cubic (BCC) iron (Fe). The capture efficiency, sink strength, and bias factor of different types of GBs were determined in Fe, which, different from traditional rate theory estimation, showed a distinct capture efficiency, sink strength, and bias in different GBs. The results demonstrate a strong positive correlation between the capture efficiency and the GB strain width, instead of the GB misorientation, GB energy, or GB-PD binding energy, which have been investigated previously. This work provides valuable insight into the radiation-induced microstructural evolution of GBs.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Sensitivity of the active neutron coincidence collar response during simulated and experimental fresh fuel assay

Verification of the fissile (and fertile) content in fresh nuclear fuel assemblies is conducted by the IAEA to enforce the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty using the UNCL (Uranium Neutron Collar — Light Water Reactor Fuel). The UNCL uses an uncorrelated AmLi neutron source to interrogate the fuel, producing a signal of coincident fission neutrons (Doubles rate) used to assay 235 U content of the fuel. The cost of producing calibration assemblies and limited availability of diverse commercial assemblies at any one time historically restricted the ability to explore the full parameter space experimentally. Monte Carlo simulations can overcome this, but introduce additional sources of uncertainty. In this work, the sensitivity of simulations and measurements to various parameters is assessed for a reference 1616 PWR assembly of uniform 3.2% enrichment. Uncertainty contributions in this evaluation include: simulated AmLi neutron source spectrum, AmLi neutron emission rate, AmLi anisotropicity, high density polyethylene (HDPE) density, the precise position of the fuel assembly within the detector, and experimentally the statistical uncertainty. The overall total systematic uncertainty estimate for the simulation of the absolute/relative Doubles rates responses are estimated to be approximately 2.0%/1.5%, and for experimental measurements systematic uncertainty reduces to 1.1%. This analysis supports further work using the relative Doubles rates in place of measurements for updating and extending the UNCL analysis methodology as systematic uncertainty is reasonably small.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Atomic masses with machine learning for the astrophysical r process

The astrophysical r process plays a vital role in the production of heavy elements. Modeling of the r process is sensitive to masses and further requires knowledge of masses beyond current experimental reach. Therefore, simulations of the r process offer a unique test bed for predicting mass extrapolations. We take a Machine-Learning (ML) approach to model the masses across the entire chart of nuclides. For the first time, we simulate r-process nucleosynthesis with a physics-based ML mass model. We compare simulated abundances to solar data in order to evaluate the model's performance far from stability. The resulting r-process abundances up to thorium and uranium qualitatively match those of the observed solar system abundance pattern, with the characteristic peaks well positioned. We propagate the mass uncertainties obtained from the ML model to r-process abundance yields to estimate an uncertainty band associated with our approach. The size of the uncertainty band is approximately one order of magnitude which aligns with the uncertainty reported using alternative techniques.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Non-destructive depth-resolved characterization of residual strain fields in high electron mobility transistors using differential aperture x-ray microscopy

Localized residual stress and elastic strain concentrations in microelectronic devices often affect the electronic performance, resistance to thermomechanical damage, and, likely, radiation tolerance. A primary challenge for the characterization of these concentrations is that they exist over sub-μm length-scales, precluding their characterization by more traditional residual stress measurement techniques. Here, in this study, we demonstrate the use of synchrotron x-ray-based differential aperture x-ray microscopy (DAXM) as a viable, non-destructive means to characterize these stress and strain concentrations in a depth-resolved manner. DAXM is used to map two-dimensional strain fields between the source and the drain in a gallium nitride (GaN) layer within high electron mobility transistors (HEMTs) with sub-μm spatial resolution. Strain fields at various positions in both pristine and irradiated HEMT specimens are presented in addition to a preliminary stress analysis to estimate the distribution of various stress components within the GaN layer. γ-irradiation is found to significantly reduce the lattice plane spacing in the GaN along the sample normal direction, which is attributed to radiation damage in transistor components bonded to the GaN during irradiation.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Beyond integration: modeling every pixel to obtain better structure factors from stills

Most crystallographic data processing methods use pixel integration. In serial femtosecond crystallography (SFX), the intricate interaction between the reciprocal lattice point and the Ewald sphere is integrated out by averaging symmetrically equivalent observations recorded across a large number (10 4 -10 6 ) of exposures. Although sufficient for generating biological insights, this approach converges slowly, and using it to accurately measure anomalous differences has proved difficult. This report presents a novel approach for increasing the accuracy of structure factors obtained from SFX data. A physical model describing all observed pixels is defined to a degree of complexity such that it can decouple the various contributions to the pixel intensities. Model dependencies include lattice orientation, unit-cell dimensions, mosaic structure, incident photon spectra and structure factor amplitudes. Maximum likelihood estimation is used to optimize all model parameters. The application of prior knowledge that structure factor amplitudes are positive quantities is included in the form of a reparameterization. The method is tested using a synthesized SFX dataset of ytterbium(III) lysozyme, where each X-ray laser pulse energy is centered at 9034 eV. This energy is 100 eV above the Yb 3+ L -III absorption edge, so the anomalous difference signal is stable at 10 electrons despite the inherent energy jitter of each femtosecond X-ray laser pulse. This work demonstrates that this approach allows the determination of anomalous structure factors with very high accuracy while requiring an order-of-magnitude fewer shots than conventional integration-based methods would require to achieve similar results.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

High-Precision Characterization of Seismicity from the 2022 Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai Volcanic Eruption

The earthquake swarm accompanying the January 2022 Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai (HTHH) volcanic eruption includes a large number of posteruptive moderate-magnitude seismic events and presents a unique opportunity to use remote monitoring methods to characterize and compare seismic activity with other historical caldera-forming eruptions. We compute improved epicentroid locations, magnitudes, and regional moment tensors of seismic events from this earthquake swarm using regional to teleseismic surface-wave cross correlation and waveform modeling. Precise relative locations of 91 seismic events derived from 59,047 intermediate-period Rayleigh- and Love-wave cross-correlation measurements collapse into a small area surrounding the volcano and exhibit a southeastern time-dependent migration. Regional moment tensors and observed waveforms indicate that these events have a similar mechanism and exhibit a strong positive compensated linear vector dipole component. Precise relative magnitudes agree with regional moment tensor moment magnitude ($M_w$) estimates while also showing that event sizes and frequency increase during the days after the eruption followed by a period of several weeks of less frequent seismicity of a similar size. The combined information from visual observation and early geologic models indicate that the observed seismicity may be the result of a complex series of events that occurred after the explosive eruption on 15 January, possibly involving rapid resupply of the magma chamber shortly after the eruption and additional faulting and instability in the following weeks. In addition, we identify and characterize an $M_w$ 4.5 event five days before the paroxysmal explosion on 15 January, indicating that additional seismic events preceding the main eruption could have been identified with improved local monitoring. As a result, our analysis of the HTHH eruption sequence demonstrates the value of potentially utilizing teleseismic surface-wave cross correlation and waveform modeling methods to assist in the detailed analysis of remote volcanic eruption sequences.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Simultaneous Celestial Navigation

GPS technology is used in a multitude of applications around the world for navigation. However, GPS can be contested or denied and thus alternatives to GPS are needed for positioning in high-consequence systems. This project investigates a non-RF based method to produce an estimated geolocation using stellar/celestial measurements in combination with measurements from inclinometers and a real time clock. The initial iteration of this method, developed in FY20/21, achieved an estimated location accuracy within approximately 3 kilometers of the true location with a 3-sigma bound of about 8 kilometers. The next iteration aims to enhance this technology further, targeting an estimation accuracy within 100 meters of the true location, representing a 30-fold improvement over the initial method.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Integration of Total-Sky Imager Data with a Physics-Based Smart Persistence Model for Intra-Hour Forecasting of Solar Radiation

Short-term solar forecasting models based solely on global horizontal irradiance (GHI) measurements are often unable to discriminate the forecasting of the factors affecting GHI from those that can be precisely computed by atmospheric models. Our previous study introduced a Physics-based Smart Persistence model for Intra-hour forecasting of solar radiation (PSPI) that decomposed the forecasting of GHI into the computation of extraterrestrial solar radiation and solar zenith angle and the forecasting of cloud albedo and cloud fraction. The extraterrestrial solar radiation and solar zenith angle were accurately computed by the Solar Position Algorithm (SPA) developed at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). A cloud retrieval technique was used to estimate cloud albedo and cloud fraction from surface-based observations of GHI. With the assumption of persistent cloud structures, the cloud albedo and cloud fraction were predicted for future time steps using a two-stream approximation and a 5-minute exponential weighted moving average, respectively. The model evaluation indicated the estimation and forecast of cloud fraction mostly contributed to the uncertainty of the PSPI though it overcame the persistence and smart persistence models in all forecast time horizons between 5 and 60 minutes. This study aims to enhance the PSPI by ingesting surface-based observations of cloud fraction from a total sky imager (TSI). The estimation and forecast of cloud albedo is correspondingly improved by utilizing the cloud fraction observations and thus leads to more accurate GHI forecast. Various time-series analysis methods are also investigated on the forecasting of cloud fraction and cloud albedo for further improving the GHI forecast. These improvements are valuable for many applications, such as forecasting energy use for buildings, grid operations, and ultimately bringing down the cost of solar energy.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Studying the effects of overlapping objects in dark energy

Observing the clustering of galaxies allows us to calculate cosmological parameters necessary for understanding dark energy. However, as the density of observed objects increases, the probability of these objects blending likewise increases, causing multiple galaxies to be observed as one. This affects the inferred values of parameters such as the galaxy bias (b) and the matter energy density (ΩM). To see whether the bias from incorrectly inferring the galaxy count is significant, we compare the correlation functions in simulated data for “true” and “observed” data sets with one-to-one and multiple-to-one correspondences, respectively. For each data set, we create two correlation functions: one “measured” function directly relying on the galaxies’ positions using the TreeCorr python library, and one “model” derived mathematically from the galaxies’ power spectrum using the Cosmological Core Library (CCL). By minimizing the residual between these two functions, we compute the ideal values for b and ΩM across the various possible redshifts that position the galaxies in three dimensional space. This minimization is done with an Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) estimate that finds one value of ΩM and ten values for b corresponding to the ten redshift bins ranging from z = 0.2 to z = 1.2. We find that neither b nor ΩM is particularly affected by inclusion of blended galaxies. Though there is room for improvement, the data suggests that the fluctuations we found are a result of noise or limitations on the modeling rather than blending explicitly.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Lineage frequency time series reveal elevated levels of genetic drift in SARS-CoV-2 transmission in England

Genetic drift in infectious disease transmission results from randomness of transmission and host recovery or death. The strength of genetic drift for SARS-CoV-2 transmission is expected to be high due to high levels of superspreading, and this is expected to substantially impact disease epidemiology and evolution. However, we don’t yet have an understanding of how genetic drift changes over time or across locations. Furthermore, noise that results from data collection can potentially confound estimates of genetic drift. To address this challenge, we develop and validate a method to jointly infer genetic drift and measurement noise from time-series lineage frequency data. Our method is highly scalable to increasingly large genomic datasets, which overcomes a limitation in commonly used phylogenetic methods. We apply this method to over 490,000 SARS-CoV-2 genomic sequences from England collected between March 2020 and December 2021 by the COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) consortium and separately infer the strength of genetic drift for pre-B.1.177, B.1.177, Alpha, and Delta. We find that even after correcting for measurement noise, the strength of genetic drift is consistently, throughout time, higher than that expected from the observed number of COVID-19 positive individuals in England by 1 to 3 orders of magnitude, which cannot be explained by literature values of superspreading. Our estimates of genetic drift suggest low and time-varying establishment probabilities for new mutations, inform the parametrization of SARS-CoV-2 evolutionary models, and motivate future studies of the potential mechanisms for increased stochasticity in this system.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

High Time Resolution Modelled and Measured New Particle Formation Rates During the 2023 Pittsburgh, PA Campaign

Particle size distributions are used to calculate nucleation rates during new particle formation (NPF). However, the low time resolution and poor sensitivity of instruments deployed to observe particle size distributions can lead to inaccurate estimates of nucleation rates. We calculated nucleation rates in Pittsburgh, PA from particle size distributions measured with the new high time resolution Condensation Particle Counters For Atmospheric Rapid Measurements (CPC FARM) and from gas precursor concentrations measured with a chemical ionization mass spectrometer. The CPC FARM nucleation rates were calculated by examining the appearance rate of particles in the smallest size bin at 1.6 nm. The nucleation rate of 1.6 nm determined every second resulted in positive and negative rates, indicating the influence of inhomogeneous mixing and advection of precursor gases and clusters. These effects are not currently considered when estimating nucleation rates from measurements. The nucleation rates from the CPC FARM were compared to the nucleation rates determined from a transient acid‐base reaction model using measured sulfuric acid concentration, strong base concentrations, and CPC detection efficiencies. The transient form of the model allowed the advection of heterogeneously mixed precursors to influence the nucleation rate. Good agreement between particle and gas‐based nucleation rates is observed during sulfuric acid‐driven NPF events. This study demonstrates that high time resolution measurements of short‐lived and rapidly formed particles are needed to accurately capture nucleation rates, which are likely influenced by advection of nucleation precursors and clusters in heterogeneous environments such as urban areas.

Cheng, D. [Carnegie Mellon Univ., Pittsburgh, PA (↗

Population Dynamics and Temporal Trends of Bull Trout in the East Fork Salmon River, Idaho

Abstract Because of their long-term listing under the Endangered Species Act, much interest has been placed on estimating population vital rates for Bull Trout Salvelinus confluentus, but the biotic and abiotic factors that influence the interannual variability in those vital rates have rarely been evaluated. We used mark–recapture data to estimate fish growth, survival, and trends in abundance for fluvial adult Bull Trout in the East Fork Salmon River, Idaho. Over an 8-year period, a total of 1,205 individual Bull Trout were collected at a weir on the East Fork Salmon River (29 km upstream of its confluence with the Salmon River) during June–September, of which 420 were recaptures from prior years. Bull Trout varied in length from 215 to 756 mm and achieved a slightly larger asymptotic length and a slightly lower rate of growth relative to other fluvial and adfluvial Bull Trout populations. Apparent survival averaged 0.42 across all years, which was similar to previous studies estimating apparent survival for Bull Trout. The number of emigrating anadromous salmonid smolts in the upper Salmon River basin positively influenced East Fork Salmon River Bull Trout growth and survival, and survival was higher in years with lower annual discharge. Assessment of population growth via linear regression analysis indicated that the Bull Trout population was increasing during the study period (λ = 1.08; 95% confidence interval = 1.03–1.14). Our findings highlight the ecological link between the abundance of wild and hatchery Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha, Sockeye Salmon O. nerka, and steelhead O. mykiss smolts and growth and survival of adult Bull Trout in systems where these species occur in sympatry.

Roth, Curtis J.↗