Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “precipitation rates”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 271 records · Page 15
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2021

Trend Detection of Atmospheric Time Series: Incorporating Appropriate Uncertainty Estimates and Handling Extreme Events

This paper is aimed at atmospheric scientists without formal training in statistical theory. Its goal is to, 1) provide a critical review of the rationale for trend analysis of the time series typically encountered in the field of atmospheric chemistry; 2) describe a range of trend-detection methods; and 3) demonstrate effective means of conveying the results to a general audience. Trend detections in atmospheric chemical composition data are often challenged by a variety of sources of uncertainty, which often behave differently to other environmental phenomena such as temperature, precipitation rate, or stream flow, and may require specific methods depending on the science questions to be addressed. Some sources of uncertainty can be explicitly included in the model specification, such as autocorrelation and seasonality, but some inherent uncertainties are difficult to quantify, such as data heterogeneity and measurement uncertainty due to the combined effect of short- and long-term natural variability, instrumental stability, and aggregation of data from sparse sampling frequency. Failure to account for these uncertainties might result in an inappropriate inference of the trends and their estimation errors. On the other hand, the variation in extreme events might be interesting for different scientific questions, for example, the frequency of extremely high surface ozone events and their relevance to human health. In this study we aim to, 1) review trend detection methods for addressing different levels of data complexity in different chemical species; 2) demonstrate that the incorporation of scientifically interpretable covariates can outperform pure numerical curve fitting techniques in terms of uncertainty reduction and improved predictability; 3) illustrate the study of trends based on extreme quantiles that can provide insight beyond standard mean or median based trend estimates; and 4) present an advanced method of quantifying regional trends based on the inter-site correlations of multi-site data. All demonstrations are based on time series of observed trace gases relevant to atmospheric chemistry, but the methods can be applied to other environmental data sets.

Trace gas↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assessing Environmental and Socioeconomic Factors of Urban Flood Vulnerability in Kansas City, Kansas

Pluvial flooding, over-saturated ground, and drainage systems disproportionately impact historically marginalized urban neighborhoods during extreme rainfall events. These communities are impacted by physical and socioeconomic factors that make them vulnerable to flooding events, such as high concentrations of impervious landcover, high precipitation rates, and a combined sewer system framework. Despite known vulnerability to environmental hazards, understanding potential pluvial street-level flooding events are largely unknown. Using the open-source National Capital Project’s Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) Urban Flood Risk Mitigation model, NASA DEVELOP examined neighborhood scale runoff retention and potential economic damages for risk mapping throughout Kansas City, Kansas. The generated outputs aid in identifying vulnerable neighborhoods susceptible to flooding and in need of future intervention. Previous studies have applied this model framework to understand urban flood vulnerability regarding ecosystem services, urban planning, and flood mitigation strategies. We utilized the InVEST outputs to develop indices pertaining to environmental justice factors of race, socioeconomic status, social vulnerability, and health. The findings indicate that historically redlined neighborhoods in Kansas City, Kansas face disproportional impacts from flood events and are subject to greater environmental stressors. This research provides an approach to utilizing an open-source flood vulnerability model to empower neighborhood-scale environmental justice analysis, enhancing the local communities' understanding of present-day impacts of historical environmental injustices.

Hadwynne Gross↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Toward The Development of Hailstorm Climatologies Derived From Reanalyses and Infared/Passive Microwave Satellite Imagers

Geostationary satellite imagers, such as those of the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) and Meteosat series, provide both historical and near-real-time observations of cloud top patterns that are commonly associated with severe convection. Environmental conditions favorable for severe weather are thought to be represented well by reanalyses. Predicting exactly where convection and costly storm hazards like hail will occur using models or satellite imagery alone, however, is extremely challenging. The multivariate combination of satellite-observed cloud patterns with reanalysis environmental parameters, linked to United States Next Generation Weather Radar- (NEXRAD-) estimated Maximum Expected Size of Hail (MESH) using a deep neural network (DNN), enables estimation of potentially severe hail likelihood for any observed storm cell. These estimates are specifically designed to make hail likelihood distinctions based on satellite-indicated points of deep convection within environments favorable for storm development. We seek an approach that can be used to estimate climatological hailstorm frequency and risk throughout the historical satellite data record. This presentation demonstrates that statistical distributions of convective parameters from satellite and reanalysis show separation between non-severe/severe hailstorm classes for predictors including overshooting cloud top temperature and area characteristics, convective available potential energy, vertical wind shear, 500 hPa temperature, mid-level lapse rate, precipitable water, and convective inhibition. These complex, multivariate predictor relationships are exploited within a DNN to produce a hail likelihood metric with a critical success index of 0.504 and Heidke skill score of 0.403, which is exceptional among recent analogous hail studies. Furthermore, applications of the DNN to select case studies demonstrate good qualitative agreement between hail likelihood and MESH. These hail classifications are aggregated across an 11-year GOES-12/13 image database to derive a hail frequency and severity climatology, which denotes the Central Plains, the Midwest, and northwestern Mexico as being the most hail-prone regions within the domain studied. Opportunities for training and applying DNN-based hailstorm predictions to recently developed GOES-8/10/12/13/16 and Meteosat Second Generation convective storm detection and characterization climatologies over South America and South Africa, respectively, will also be presented.

Kristopher Bedka↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Tropical Convection Through the Lens of the INCUS Mission

The overarching goal of the recently selected NASA INvestigation of Convective UpdraftS (INCUS) mission is to enhance our understanding of why, when and where tropical convective storms form, and why only some of these storms produce extreme weather. Convective storms provide an important pathway for the transport of air and water between Earth’s surface and the upper troposphere. This vertical transport of air and water, often referred to as convective mass flux (CMF), plays a critical role in Earth’s weather and climate system through its impacts on microphysical and precipitation rates, detrainment and upper tropospheric moistening, high cloud feedbacks, and the large-scale circulation. Potential changes to the CMF as a function of the local environment or with changing climates may also have significant implications for severe weather such as flood-producing rainfall, damaging hail and lightning. In spite of the critical role of this vertical transport of water and air, representation of CMF remains a major source of error in weather and climate models, thereby limiting our ability to accurately predict convective storms and their impacts. The tropics-wide observations from INCUS will enhance our understanding of tropical convective storm processes and will provide guidance for representing these processes in numerical models across scales. INCUS is comprised of three SmallSat platforms each carrying a RainCube-heritage Ka-band 7-beam scanning radar. The satellite platforms will be 30 and 90 seconds apart, thus providing three time intervals (30, 90 and 120 seconds) over which observations will be made. INCUS will investigate CMF using a novel time-differenced radar reflectivity profile approach. In addition to the Ka-band radar, a single TEMPEST-D-heritage cross-track-scanning passive microwave radiometer will be housed on the middle SmallSat. The radiometer will provide extensive storm context for the radar observations, as well as observations of the convective anvils. The combination of the radars and radiometer on INCUS will deliver unprecedented three-dimensional views of tropical convective storms. INCUS is the first systematic investigation of the rapidly evolving CMF within tropical convective storms, the observations of which are expected to significantly enhance both our understanding and prediction of storm structure, their dynamics and microphysical processes, and the ways in which these evolve over storm lifetimes. This presentation will highlight the observational capabilities and scientific approach of the INCUS mission.

Susan C. van den Heever↗
NASA NTRS2022

Lightning Over Central Canada: Skill Assessment for Various Land-Atmosphere Model Configurations and Lightning Indices Over a Boreal Study Area

Current lightning predictions are uncertain because they rely on empirical diagnostic relationships and often use coarse-scale climate scenario simulations in which deep convection is parameterized. Previous studies demonstrated that simulations with convection permitting resolutions improve lightning predictions compared to coarser-grid simulations using convection parameterizations for different geographical locations but not over the boreal zone. In this study, lightning simulations with the NASA Unified-Weather Research and Forecasting (NU-WRF) model are evaluated over a domain including the Great Slave Lake in Canada, for six lightning seasons. The simulations are performed at convection parameterized (9 km) and convection-permitting (3 km) resolution using the Goddard 4ICE and the Thompson microphysics schemes. Four lightning indices are evaluated against observations from the Canadian Lightning Detection Network, in terms of spatiotemporal frequency distribution, spatial pattern, daily climatology, and an event-based overall skill assessment. The Thompson scheme is, regardless of the spatial resolution, superior to the Goddard 4ICE scheme in predicting daily climatology but worse in predicting the spatial patterns of lightning occurrence. Results indicate that lightning estimation benefits from modeling at convection-permitting resolution, in particular for the ice based lightning indices. In contrast, the product of convective available potential energy and precipitation rate proved to be the most robust index that was largely invariant to varying spatial resolution. Finally, this study reveals issues of the models to reproduce the observed spatial pattern of lightning well, which might be related to an insufficient representation of land surface heterogeneity, including peatlands, in the study area.

Jonas Mortelmans↗
DOE OSTI2020

Mesoscale Modeling to Characterize Eagle Soaring Habitat

Uncovering drivers of risk is crucial to understanding interactions between wildlife and wind turbines, and identifying options for impact minimization. These drivers tie to co-variates linked to behavior and movement patterns that allow us to estimate locations and periods of risk. For volant species, atmospheric flow can have significant influence on flight patterns. For obligate soaring birds, like golden eagles, updraft velocities can inform where eagles are likely to travel, at what altitude, and where conditions are not likely sufficient to sustain soaring flight. This has been an active area of study in recent years, using relatively coarse atmospheric data generally at the 20km x 20km scale or larger. Leveraging a 20-year dataset from the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) (https://www.mmm.ucar.edu/weather-research-and-forecasting-model), we are quantifying vertical velocities across the continental United States at a 2km x 2km resolution. Wind resource data sets originally were static maps showing the mean annual wind speed over an area. However, for these data sets to be optimally used for various applications they must be high-resolution time series, seamlessly span large geographic contexts, and account for uncertainty in wind speed. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory is producing public available datasets that meet these criteria and will be bias corrected to yield the most accurate wind resource data. This effort is an augment to the current WIND Toolkit which houses a high resolution data set. In the new iteration of the WIND Toolkit, a 20-year dataset will be used to improve the accuracy and estimate uncertainty using ensemble and machine-learning techniques. The resulting product will be the most accurate dataset of its size and at a 2km x 2km spatial and 5-minute temporal resolution. Through this work, a mesoscale vertical velocity layer will be produced by calculating the likelihood of orographic updraft and thermal updraft conditions across the continental United States. Specifically, we will use WRF model output combined with digital elevation maps to predict updrafts and then determine if vertical velocities are sufficient to support Golden Eagle soaring and gliding. Ultimately this data layer will be made available as a GIS layer in the Wind Prospector (maps.nrel.gov/wind-prospector/) tool or a similar framework. Data that will be incorporated include wind speed, direction temperature, relative humidity, barometric pressure, air density, precipitation rate, solar radiation, atmospheric stability, skin temperature, and upward heat flux. These products will advance research on interactions between volant species and wind energy by providing open access to highly resolved data with uncertainty quantification not previously available at this scale.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Micro-continuum approach for mineral precipitation

Abstract Rates and extents of mineral precipitation in porous media are difficult to predict, in part because laboratory experiments are problematic. It is similarly challenging to implement numerical methods that model this process due to the need to dynamically evolve the interface of solid material. We developed a multiphase solver that implements a micro-continuum simulation approach based on the Darcy–Brinkman–Stokes equation to study mineral precipitation. We used the volume-of-fluid technique in sharp interface implementation to capture the propagation of the solid mineral surface. Additionally, we utilize an adaptive mesh refinement method to improve the resolution of near interface simulation domain dynamically. The developed solver was validated against both analytical solution and Arbitrary Lagrangian–Eulerian approach to ensure its accuracy on simulating the propagation of the solid interface. The precipitation of barite (BaSO 4 ) was chosen as a model system to test the solver using variety of simulation parameters: different geometrical constraints, flow conditions, reaction rate and ion diffusion. The growth of a single barite crystal was simulated to demonstrate the solver’s capability to capture the crystal face specific directional growth.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS1992

Calculated ionization rates, ion densities, and airglow emission rates due to precipitating electrons in the nightside ionosphere of Mars

The calculations presented in this paper clearly establish that the electron fluxes measured by the HARP instrument, carried on board Phobos 2, could cause significant electron impact ionization and excitation in the nightside atmosphere of Mars, if these electrons actually do precipitate. The calculated peak electron densities were found to be about a factor of 2 larger than the mean observed nightside densities, indicating that if a significant fraction of the measured electrons actually precipitate, they could be the dominant mechanism responsible for maintaining the nightside ionosphere. The calculated zenith column emission rates of the O I 5577-A and 6300-A and CO Cameron band emissions, due to electron impact and dissociative recombination mechanisms, were found to be significant.

Haider, S. A.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Cloud Top Radiative Cooling Rate Drives Non-Precipitating Stratiform Cloud Responses to Aerosol Concentration

Increases in aerosol concentration are well known to influence the microphysical processes and radiative properties of clouds. By reducing droplet size, an increase in aerosol can lessen collision efficiency and increase liquid water path (LWP) in precipitating clouds or enhance evaporation rate and decrease LWP in non-precipitating clouds. We utilize large eddy simulations to further investigate these aerosol indirect effects in Arctic mixed-phase clouds and find, in agreement with previous studies, precipitating clouds to experience an increase in LWP and non-precipitating clouds a decrease in LWP. Most importantly however, our results reveal a different explanation for why such an LWP decrease occurs in decoupled, non-precipitating clouds. We find enhanced evaporation near cloud top to be driven primarily by a strengthening of maximum radiative cooling rate with aerosol concentration which drives stronger entrainment, an effect that holds true even in clouds that are optically thick.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Solute segregation and precipitation across damage rates in dual-ion–irradiated T91 steel

We report that dual-ion irradiations using 5.0 MeV defocused Fe 2+ ions and co-injected energy degraded 2.00 to 2.85 MeV He 2+ ions were conducted on a Fe9CrMo ferritic-martensitic steel T91 to 17 dpa at a damage rate range of 5 × 10 -5 dpa/s to 3 × 10 -3 dpa/s at 445°C, followed by characterization of the microstructure using conventional and scanning transmission electron microscopy. Radiation induced Ni/Si clusters and radiation induced segregation were quantified using energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy at each condition and were compared with the same material irradiated in the BOR-60 reactor and in the as-received condition. No significant Cr segregation was found at lath boundaries after dual-ion irradiation, while Ni and Si enrichments both decreased with increasing damage rate leading to a sharp decrease in the density of Ni/Si clusters with damage rate. Increased point defect recombination at higher ion damage rates likely reduced the Ni/Si cluster density compared with BOR-60. Although the overall vacancy concentration and diffusion are enhanced by the irradiation damage rate, the lack of time for thermal diffusion and ballistic displacements of solutes are significant limiting factors for Ni/Si cluster formation. This work demonstrates the effect of irradiation damage rate on elemental segregation and clustering when using ion irradiation to simulate reactor irradiation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS1992

The three stages of magma ocean cooling

Models of magma ocean (MO) cooling and crystallization can provide important constraints on MO plausibility for a given planet, on the origin of long term, stable crusts, and even on the origin of the solar system. Assuming the MO is initially extensive enough to have a mostly molten surface, its first stage of cooling is an era of radiative heat loss from the surface, with extremely rapid convection below, and no conductive layer in between. The development of the chill crust starts the second stage of MO cooling. Heat loss is now limited by conduction through the crust. The third stage of cooling starts when the near surface MO evolves compositionally to the point of saturation with feldspar. At this point, the cooling rate again precipitously diminishes, the rate of crustal thickness growth as a function of temperature suddenly increases. More work on incorporating chemical constraints into the evolving physical models of MO solidification would be worthwhile.

Warren, Paul H.↗
NASA NTRS2016

A Model-Model and Data-Model Comparison for the Early Eocene Hydrological Cycle

A range of proxy observations have recently provided constraints on how Earth's hydrological cycle responded to early Eocene climatic changes. However, comparisons of proxy data to general circulation model (GCM) simulated hydrology are limited and inter-model variability remains poorly characterised. In this work, we undertake an intercomparison of GCM-derived precipitation and P - E distributions within the extended EoMIP ensemble (Eocene Modelling Intercomparison Project; Lunt et al., 2012), which includes previously published early Eocene simulations performed using five GCMs differing in boundary conditions, model structure, and precipitation-relevant parameterisation schemes. We show that an intensified hydrological cycle, manifested in enhanced global precipitation and evaporation rates, is simulated for all Eocene simulations relative to the preindustrial conditions. This is primarily due to elevated atmospheric paleo-CO2, resulting in elevated temperatures, although the effects of differences in paleogeography and ice sheets are also important in some models. For a given CO2 level, globally averaged precipitation rates vary widely between models, largely arising from different simulated surface air temperatures. Models with a similar global sensitivity of precipitation rate to temperature (dP=dT ) display different regional precipitation responses for a given temperature change. Regions that are particularly sensitive to model choice include the South Pacific, tropical Africa, and the Peri-Tethys, which may represent targets for future proxy acquisition. A comparison of early and middle Eocene leaf-fossil-derived precipitation estimates with the GCM output illustrates that GCMs generally underestimate precipitation rates at high latitudes, although a possible seasonal bias of the proxies cannot be excluded. Models which warm these regions, either via elevated CO2 or by varying poorly constrained model parameter values, are most successful in simulating a match with geologic data. Further data from low-latitude regions and better constraints on early Eocene CO2 are now required to discriminate between these model simulations given the large error bars on paleoprecipitation estimates. Given the clear differences between simulated precipitation distributions within the ensemble, our results suggest that paleohydrological data offer an independent means by which to evaluate model skill for warm climates.

Boundary conditions↗
DOE OSTI2025

Selectivity of tris complexation for Ni(II), Co(II), and Fe(II) and its effect on carbonate precipitation under alkaline conditions

Simultaneous critical element recovery and ex-situ carbon mineralization of low-grade ultramafic deposits have garnered increasing interest. Understanding the selectivity of metal complexing organic ligands for various divalent metals present in ultramafic rocks during carbonate mineralization is required to optimize this process. Here we evaluate 2-amino-2-(hydroxymethyl)-1,3-propanediol (i.e., Tris) as a model for bidentate ligands that bind divalent metals with both amine and alcohol groups in alkaline conditions (pH 8–10.5) at 25 °C and 80 °C in carbonate-buffered solutions. Protonated Tris forms a stronger complex with metal ions and is selective for trace metals with Ni(II) > Co(II) > Fe(II) during carbonate precipitation, with the rates decreasing but selectivity increasing at lower temperature and lower pH. At 25 °C, metastable amorphous hydrated carbonates form, regardless of the amount of Tris present or pH values. At 80 °C and pH 8, the Co and Fe carbonates that form are a mixture of rosasite-group minerals (Co 2 CO 3 (OH) 2 (H 2 O) and Fe 2 CO 3 (OH) 2 ) and pure carbonates (sphaerocobaltite: CoCO 3 and siderite: FeCO 3 ), with the latter more stabilized with increasing Tris concentration. In mixed metal solutions without Tris at 25 °C where Fe:Ni or Fe:Co is 2:1, Fe increases the rates of Ni or Co carbonate precipitation. However, with increasing Tris concentration the presence of Ni or Co inhibits Fe carbonate precipitation. At 80 °C without Tris, Ni or Co substitute into the iron chukanovite (Fe 2 CO 3 (OH) 2 ) lattice, increasing Ni or Co carbonate precipitation rates. Increasing Tris concentration only slightly inhibits Fe and Co precipitation, but slows Ni precipitation up to 10 times, with Fe progressively partitioning into more pure carbonate phases with distinct crystalline morphologies. These findings suggest bidentate amine-bearing ligands may be effective at Ni and Co recovery during carbon mineralization of Fe-bearing ultramafic deposits at relatively low temperatures and slightly alkaline pH.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2000

Water Vapor Transport Over the Tropical Oceans During ENSO as Diagnosed from TRMM and SSM/I Data

Traditionally, large-scale water vapor transport [div Q] has been derived directly from circulation statistics in which transport processes are often depicted by mean and eddy motions. Thus detailed and accurate calculations of moisture transport terms over the globe are required. Notably, the lack of systematically spaced conventional measurements of meteorological variables over oceans has hindered understanding of the distribution and transport of water vapor. This motivates the use of indirect calculation methods in which horizontal divergence of water vapor is balanced by the evaporation minus precipitation, assuming the rate of changes of precipitable water and condensates is small over a sufficiently long time period. In order to obtain the water vapor transport, we need evaporation rate minus precipitation (E-P). Focussing on the differences in water vapor transport between El Nino and La Nina periods and their influences on atmospheric circulations, we study January, February, and March of 1998 and 1999 periods which represent El Nino and La Nina respectively. SSM/I-derived precipitation and evaporation rate from SSM/I wind and total precipitable water, in conjunction with NCEP SST and surface air temperature, are used for the calculation of the transport potential function. For the retrieval of evaporation we use a stability-dependent aerodynamic bulk scheme developed by Chou (1993). It was tested against aircraft covariance fluxes measured during cold air outbreaks over the North Atlantic Ocean. Chou et al. (1997) reported that the SSM/I retrieved latent heat flux over the western Pacific warm pool area were found to be comparable with daily mean fluxes of a ship measurements during TOGA/COARE.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Uniting Space, Ground and Underwater Measurements for Improved Estimates of Rain Rate

Global precipitation is monitored from a variety of platforms including space-borne, ground- and ocean-based platforms. Intercomparisons of these observations are crucial to validating the measurements and providing confidence for each measurement technique. Probability distribution functions of rain rates are used to compare satellite and ground-based radar observations. A preferred adjustment technique for improving rain rate distribution estimates is identified using measurements from ground-based radar and radar and rain gauges within the coverage area of the radar. The underwater measurement of rainfall shows similarities to radar measurements, but with intermediate spatial resolution and high temporal resolution. Reconciling these different measurement techniques provides understanding and confidence for all of the methods.

Amitai, E.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Global distribution of moisture, evaporation-precipitation, and diabatic heating rates

Global archives were established for ECMWF 12-hour, multilevel analysis beginning 1 January 1985; day and night IR temperatures, and solar incoming and solar absorbed. Routines were written to access these data conveniently from NASA/MSFC MASSTOR facility for diagnostic analysis. Calculations of diabatic heating rates were performed from the ECMWF data using 4-day intervals. Calculations of precipitable water (W) from 1 May 1985 were carried out using the ECMWF data. Because a major operational change on 1 May 1985 had a significant impact on the moisture field, values prior to that date are incompatible with subsequent analyses.

Christy, John R.↗