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At least 271 records · Page 15

Research goals for minimizing the cost of CO 2 capture when using steam methane reforming for hydrogen production

This paper presents a techno-economic assessment of adding state-of-the-art solvent-based CO 2 capture technologies to greenfield steam methane reforming (SMR)-based H 2 production plants and quantifies the impacts of improvements in CO 2 capture technology. Current conventional capture technologies are reviewed, and future technologies in intermediate and long-term scenarios are analyzed. The results show that adding significantly more efficient solvent-based capture technologies leads to an equivalent rate of natural gas consumption as that of a conventional SMR plant without capture, despite capturing most of the CO 2 and producing the same amount of H 2 . Overall, improvements in reboiler duty and reductions in capital costs can significantly reduce the cost of H 2 production and cost of capture. Particularly, the reboiler duty of pre-combustion capture and the capital cost of post-combustion capture have the greatest impact. Based on the results, research goals are suggested. Solvent development is recommended—particularly pre-combustion solvents—for reducing the reboiler duties, and process schemes to reduce the capital costs. Costlier but more efficient solvents can be considered. A sensitivity analysis using natural gas price shows that technological improvements can reduce the impacts of high natural gas prices. The degree of economic feasibility of CO 2 capture increases with improvements to the capture technology.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Intensified biogas to liquid (IBGTL) Process: Experimental validation and modeling analysis

The Intensified Biogas to Liquid (IBGTL) process aims to overcome traditional economy-of-scale barriers in biogas-to-liquid fuel production by integrating bi-reforming and Fischer-Tropsch synthesis (FTS) in a single IBGTL reactor. This reactor operates at uniform pressure with different optimized temperatures across two zones for efficient conversion, utilizing multifunctional bi-reforming catalysts and high-temperature FTS catalysts. Bench scale experiments were carried out using landfill gas (LFG) in a single pass process, and the yield data from these experiments were fed into process scale-up design and techno-economic analysis (TEA) across four scenarios: (1) a single pass process, (2) a process with material recycling, (3) a process with liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) co-product recovery, and (4) a process with electricity generation from the fuel gas produced. TEA identified Scenario 2 as the most cost-effective, achieving a Minimum Fuel Selling Price (MFSP) of $\$4.59$ per gallon, competitive with the current national diesel price of $\$4.7$ per gallon. However, comparison with the conventional two-reactor system highlights the need for catalyst performance improvements. Sensitivity analysis emphasized the importance of manufacturing cost, liquid fuel yield, and biogas flow rate. Further analysis determined that the IBGTL process must achieve a diesel mass yield beyond 11.7% to surpass the economic viability of the conventional TriFTS (Tri-reforming followed by Fischer-Tropsch Synthesis) process. If the IBGTL process attains the TriFTS yield of up to 17%, the resulting MFSP could be approximately 31% lower than the current TriFTS MFSP. Furthermore, renewable energy credits and carbon credits can further enhance the economic viability of BGTL processes.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Improving anaerobic digestion of sewage sludge to renewable natural gas by the Advanced Pretreatment & Anaerobic Digestion technology (APAD): Pilot testing

Conventional anaerobic digestion (AD) of sewage sludge in wastewater treatment facilities suffers from low carbon conversion efficiency (CCE = 40%) and requires costly CO2 removal for injection of the produced CH4 into the natural gas grid. To address these limitations, we developed the Advanced Pretreatment and Anaerobic Digestion (APAD) process. This integrates Advanced Wet Oxidation & Steam Explosion (AWOEx) pretreatment of residual sludge after conventional AD, followed by biogas upgradation using a novel methanogenic strain, Methanothermobacter wolfeii BSEL, converting CO2 with H2 into CH4 or RNG (renewable natural gas). Pilot-scale results demonstrated that AWOEx pretreatment achieved a CCE of 62% for the residual sludge, 68% higher than the conventional AD process. The CH4 production was further increased by 79%. Subsequent biogas upgrading in a trickling bed reactor with H2 further enhanced total methane output by 100% and resulted in a final CO2 concentration of =3%. The integrated APAD process achieved a remarkable overall CCE of 83%, resulting in a 200% increase in RNG output when compared to conventional AD. Techno-economic analysis revealed that AWOEx pretreatment alone reduced sludge treatment costs from $494 to $253 per ton of dry solids. The complete APAD process incurred a higher cost of treatment of $530 per ton, driven by prices for bottled H2. The process did, however, show gains in energy recovery and decarbonization. Renewable H2, which may reduce in price in the near future, can positively improve the economics of biogas upgrading for the APAD process.

Life Cycle Assessment (LCA)↗

Alcoholysis of nylon 6 waste to ε-caprolactam promoted by phosphoric acid

Nylon 6 is widely used in high-performance materials. However, the inherent structural rigidity of nylon 6 inhibits catalytic depolymerization to its monomer, ε-caprolactam. Here, in this study, we demonstrate an acid-catalyzed alcoholysis process that depolymerizes nylon 6 to ε-caprolactam, achieving yields up to 74% using n-propanol as solvent and phosphoric acid as catalyst at 220°C for 2 h. We further applied the process to commercial nylon-containing products, demonstrating ε-caprolactam yields of 67% to 76%. Process modeling and techno-economic analysis estimated a minimum selling price of recycled nylon 6 at $\$$1.79/kg, 30% lower than the 5-year average market price of virgin nylon 6. These estimates depend on assumed costs and process performance and may vary with future conditions. Life cycle assessment indicated that nylon 6 produced via alcoholysis can reduce greenhouse gas emissions by up to 63% compared with primary production. Overall, this study demonstrates a facile, cost-effective, and environmentally beneficial process for nylon 6 chemical recycling.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Carbon management technology pathways for reaching a U.S. Economy-Wide net-Zero emissions goal

The Carbon Management Study Group of the 37 th Energy Modeling Forum (EMF 37) designed seven scenarios to explore the role of three potentially key technology suites – point source carbon dioxide capture and storage (PSCCS), direct air capture of carbon dioxide (DACCS), and hydrogen systems (H 2 ) – in shaping the broader technology pathways to reaching net-zero carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions in United States by 2050. Each scenario was run by up to 13 models participating in the EMF 37 study. Results show that carbon dioxide removal technologies were consistently a major part of successful pathways to net-zero U.S. CO 2 emissions in 2050. Achieving this net-zero CO 2 goal without any form of carbon dioxide capture and storage was found to be impossible for most models; some models also found it impossible to reach net-zero without DACCS. The marginal cost of achieving net-zero CO 2 emissions in 2050 was between two and 10 times higher without PSCCS and/or DACCS available. The carbon price at which DACCS was deployed as a backstop technology depended upon the assumed cost at which DACCS was available at scale. Carbon prices were between $\$$250 and $\$$500 per ton CO 2 when DACCS deployed as a backstop. The average CO 2 capture rate across all models in 2050 in the central net-zero scenario was 1.3 GtCO 2 /year, which implies a substantial upscaling of capacity to move and store CO 2 . Finally, hydrogen sensitivity scenarios showed that H 2 typically constituted a relatively small share of the overall U.S. energy system; however, H 2 deployed in applications that are considered hard to decarbonize, facilitating transition towards net-zero emissions.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Policy implications of net-zero emissions: A multi-model analysis of United States emissions and energy system impacts

Many countries, subnational jurisdictions, and companies are setting net-zero emissions goals; however, questions remain about strategies to reach these targets, policy measures, technology gaps, and economic impacts. Here, we investigate the potential policy implications of reaching economy-wide net-zero CO 2 emissions across the United States by 2050 using results from a multi-model comparison with 14 energy-economic models. Model results suggest that achieving net-zero CO 2 targets depends on policies that accelerate deployment of zero- and low-emitting technologies that have seen rapid cost reductions in recent years (including wind, solar, battery storage, and electric vehicles) as well as relatively nascent options (including carbon capture and storage, advanced biofuels, low-carbon hydrogen, advanced nuclear, and long-duration energy storage). While net-zero policies are likely to lower fossil fuel consumption, including considerable coal and petroleum reductions, achieving net-zero emissions does not necessarily mean phasing out all fossil fuels. Model results indicate that the Inflation Reduction Act’s energy and climate provisions amplify near-term decarbonization but that net-zero policies have larger impacts on long-run outcomes. Stringent climate policy can have large fiscal impacts on tax revenue and government spending—revenues from carbon pricing and subsidies for carbon removal range from 0.1 % to 3.7 % of GDP in 2050 across models. Each dollar per metric ton carbon price leads to a 0.06 % to 0.31 % reduction in economy-wide CO 2 emissions relative to a reference scenario with current policies. Spending on energy across the economy decreases relative to today for many models under reference and net-zero policies, especially as a share of GDP, due primarily to end-use electrification and energy efficiency.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Machine learning-enhanced MPC for demand flexibility in small commercial buildings: An experimental study

Small- and medium-sized commercial buildings (SMCBs) represent the majority of U.S. commercial building stock and a significant share of peak electricity demand, yet they often lack centralized building automation systems, representing a significant untapped resource for urban energy management. This infrastructure gap makes advanced control implementation challenging, limiting the potential for widespread demand flexibility. Model Predictive Control (MPC) has shown strong potential for load shifting, peak demand reduction, and cost savings, but its effectiveness is hindered by unmeasured disturbances such as internal heat gains. This paper presents a Hybrid MPC framework that integrates a physics-based gray-box building thermal model, identified using a lumped disturbance (LD) approach, with a machine learning (ML) model for forecasting unmeasured disturbances. The hybrid approach is designed for buildings with multiple individually controlled heat pump and thermostat pairs, common in SMCBs, and aims to optimize coordinated scheduling of multiple heat pumps under dynamic electricity pricing while respecting comfort constraints. The methodology is validated through both simulations of case study buildings and experimental studies at a highly-instrumented test facility. Simulation results show that the Hybrid MPC achieves substantial load shifting and peak demand reduction, approaching the performance of an ideal MPC with perfect disturbance knowledge, and outperforming a conventional MPC without disturbance forecasting. In experiments, the Hybrid MPC reduced daily HVAC energy costs by 8.7%, peak-price time load (load shifting) by 41.7%, and peak demand by 29.2% compared to baseline control, demonstrating comparable benefits to the 11.6% cost savings, 42.9% load shifting, and 23.2% peak reduction of the ideal MPC. These results demonstrate that the proposed hybrid modeling approach can significantly improve MPC performance in real-world SMCB applications without requiring additional disturbance measurements.

Demand Flexibility↗

Hydrogen underground storage for grid electricity storage: An optimization study on techno-economic analysis

Here, this study performs a techno-economic analysis of hydrogen underground storage systems for grid electricity storage, evaluating their economic viability at the plant scale using dynamic optimization. It explores the feasibility of various system configurations and revenue models in the context of volatile electricity prices and the necessity for multiple revenue streams. The hypothesis tested is that large-scale hydrogen storage, despite its low round-trip efficiency, can be economically viable with the right mix of revenue streams. This study uses scenario-based analysis to assess the impacts of different system configurations, including engaging in time-shifting arbitrage, ancillary service markets and blending hydrogen with natural gas. Results indicate potential annual net cash flows of up to $\$$1.5 million from ancillary services integration and $\$$5.2 million from natural gas blending, contingent on specific system sizes. The study concludes that hydrogen underground storage for grid electricity storage can be profitable, and emphasizes that proper system design and precise electricity price forecasting are crucial for optimizing system performance and economic returns. This research sets the stage for further investigations into the scalability of hydrogen storage systems and their broader implications for grid electricity storage and energy market dynamics.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Experimental characterization and analysis of phase change material-based thermal energy storage system for refrigerated display case

Refrigerated display cases that are used to store and exhibit food products in supermarkets and retail spaces consume a significant portion of the buildings’ total electricity. Importantly, the refrigeration-related energy cost and demand charges are greatly affected by the time-of-use electricity pricing and demand rates, which are at their maximum during peak hours, typically when refrigeration energy consumption is also high. Using energy storage to shift the refrigeration load from peak to off-peak hours can greatly reduce the operational costs in the supermarket. This study demonstrates a phase change material-based thermal energy storage (TES) system, specifically designed in stackable units, that can be integrated with an open vertical refrigerated display case. We perform numerical and experimental characterization that includes finite-difference modeling for the TES, prototype fabrication, and laboratory evaluation, followed by a preliminary system-level analysis to predict the impact of TES on the refrigerated case performance, energy use, and energy cost. The results show that the dedicated latent TES for refrigerated cases can provide a specific energy of 50.4 Wh/kg and a specific power of 15.5 W/kg. The TES can be charged during 12 h of the off-peak period and discharged at various rates during 4 to 6 h of the peak period, thereby shifting the refrigeration load from the peak to the off-peak period. Consequently, annual cost savings up to 19% can be achieved, depending on the thermal load, the summer/winter peak electricity pricing, and the transition temperature of the phase change material used.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Comparative Analysis of Model Predictive Control and MPC-Informed Rule-Based Control for Thermal Storage Operation in Ultra-Low Temperature 4th Generation District Heating Networks

The integration of thermal storage and heat pumps in district heating networks (DHNs) can significantly enhance operational flexibility and energy efficiency; however, the practical deployment of advanced control strategies is often hindered by forecasting requirements and computational complexity. This study presents a comparative analysis of thermal storage control strategies in an ultra-low-temperature fourth-generation DHN, focusing on the development of a simplified rule-based control (RBC) explicitly informed by Model Predictive Control (MPC) behavior. The proposed methodology systematically analyzes the charging and discharging decisions of an MPC-controlled system under ideal forecasting conditions and extracts recurrent control patterns as a function of key system variables, including outdoor temperature, thermal demand, and electricity price. These patterns are translated into a set of structured time- and condition-based rules, resulting in an MPC-informed RBC that embeds predictive insights while preserving implementation simplicity and operational transparency. The approach is validated on a realistic mixed-use urban district in Denver, Colorado, USA, equipped with a centralized air-source heat pump, distributed water-to-water heat pumps, and a central thermal storage unit. Results show that the tuned RBC attains approximately 96% of ideal MPC economic performance (-27% of costs), preserves values of technical and environmental indicators (reduction only of 2-3%), and substantially reduces complexity. Sensitivity analyses further demonstrate the robustness of the RBC under varying operational conditions (i.e., ambient temperature, electricity price). Overall, the study demonstrates that MPC-informed rule-based control represents an effective trade-off between control performance and real-world applicability, enabling the integration of additional system components while maintaining simplicity, robustness, and ease of implementation.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Technoeconomic Analysis of Steel Production with Electric Thermal Energy Storage

The iron and steel industry is an important manufacturing sector and one of the largest energy consumers in the United States and globally. Hydrogen direct reduction of iron ore (H2DRI) is considered a promising process that could enhance domestic steel production. This process requires hydrogen inlet temperatures up to 950 degrees C to drive the endothermic reduction of the iron ore pellets. In this work we investigate the technoeconomic performance of an H2DRI plant using electric thermal energy storage (ETES) technologies for the hydrogen heating, compared to conventional natural gas fired heaters, hydrogen fired heaters, and electric hydrogen heaters. A technoeconomic analysis framework for the plant is developed and used in multiple case studies, covering different hydrogen prices, grid electricity profiles, and financing scenarios. The levelized cost of steel production is found out to be in the range of $775-950/mt, which is mostly inside the benchmarked steel price of $941/mt. ETES-based hydrogen heating is found to be in par with conventional natural gas fired heaters, and cheaper than hydrogen fired heaters and electric hydrogen heaters. The major cost drivers are the iron ore and hydrogen feedstock, followed by the hydrogen compression and heating capital. Several insights and suggested future directions are identified.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Electrification of residential and commercial buildings integrated with hybrid renewable energy systems: A techno-economic analysis

Here, this study assesses the techno-economic viability of city-scale building electrification, comparing a base case scenario with conventional HVAC systems to an electrified scenario with heat pump systems. EnergyPlus simulations reveal a 28% increase in annual electricity consumption in the electrified scenario, shifting the peak consumption from summer to winter with a 49% surge. Hybrid renewable energy systems (HRESs) are then evaluated using HOMER Pro, considering renewable penetration from 0% to 100%. The net present cost (NPC) of the base case and electrified scenarios range from $\$10.34$ to $\$24.38$ billion and $\$8.79$ to $\$50.31$ billion, respectively. Sensitivity analysis explores the impact of carbon tax, fuel price, and renewable subsidies on HRESs in the electrified scenario. Results indicate that applying a carbon tax up to $\$120$/tonne of CO 2 increases the optimum renewable fraction from 5% to 26%, while higher fuel prices and renewable subsidies further enhance the feasibility by shifting the optimum renewable fraction to 60% and 54%, respectively, demonstrating the interplay between economic factors and renewable integration in electrified urban contexts.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Techno-Economic Analysis of Recycling Strategies for Catalyst and Acid During Catalytic Graphitization

With the aim of meeting the urgent demand for active anode materials (AAM) in energy storage systems, bio-based graphite (biographite) emerges as an affordable solution to de-risk the turbulent supply chain of critical minerals. Anode grade biographite requires high crystallinity and purity, which can be achieved by catalytic graphitization with iron, followed by acid washing. Therefore, a well-conceived process integration that recycles catalyst can be the starting point to commercialization. This study evaluates closed-loop catalyst recovery, and byproducts valorization scenarios through a technoeconomic framework to help understand the scale-up potential of biographite. For the acid washing, three reactors in series meet the required biographite purity at 99.95%. Iron and acid recovery can reduce material consumption and waste generation by ~95%, albeit at the expense of ~80% increase in capital costs. Recovery scenarios present similar capital and operational expenses, yielding minimum selling prices (MSP) near $6 kg-1 of biographite. Monte Carlo methodology reveals that feedstock price accounts for ~60% of MSP variance, followed by plant capacity ~20%. The likelihood of reaching a competitive profit margin of 30% in the U.S. AAM market sits at 85% average for recovery scenarios, and 103% when iron oxide is sold as byproduct. Additionally, an IRR >= 15% can be achieved for half of Monte Carlo simulations, representing promising early-stage results. Biographite production offers a strategic pathway to stabilize the anode market beyond China by integrating established technologies for a scalable, economically viable, and sustainable process. The role of catalyst recovery and byproducts utilization is critical for advancing the biomaterials industry.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Near-Optimal Solutions for Day-Ahead Unit Commitment

Given the difficulty and the time pressure of solving unit commitment problems, near -optimal solutions (those with 0.1 or 0.001% optimality gaps) are often used in practice. The choice in which of the near -optimal solutions is used, however, is random. We investigate the impact of solution choice on the revenues obtained by generator owners across a variety of pricing schemes and problem instances.

market-clearing↗

A comparative assessment of the economic viability of nuclear-integrated direct air capture systems

Direct air capture (DAC) systems require heat and electricity to operate, which can be supplied by nuclear power plants (NPPs). In this study, the performance and cost of various conceptual nuclear-DAC systems are assessed, and their performance is compared with several non-nuclear options. Three nuclear-DAC systems are considered: (1) a liquid solvent direct air capture (L-DAC) system with heat supplied from natural gas (NG) and electricity supplied by an NPP, (2) an electrified L-DAC system, fully powered by electricity from an NPP, and (3) a solid sorbent direct air capture (S-DAC) system utilizing both heat and electricity generated by an NPP. Two nuclear technologies are considered: a pressurized water reactor and a high-temperature gas-cooled reactor. Under the medium conservatism scenario, the levelized cost of direct air capture (LCOD) for these systems range from $\$$310/tCO 2 to $\$$525/tCO 2 with the L-DAC system having an NG heat supply at the lower end of the range, and the electrified L-DAC system and the S-DAC system at the higher end of the range. Coupling with nuclear energy led to a 21 % reduction in LCOD for the L-DAC system with NG heat supply and a 29 % reduction for the S-DAC system when compared to fully NG-powered options. When powering the DAC system with grid electricity, the LCOD is highly dependent on the assumed electricity price and carbon intensity. The nuclear option is the cheaper choice when the price of low-carbon grid electricity exceeds $\$$95/MWh and $\$$45/MWh for the L-DAC and S-DAC systems, respectively.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Cost analysis of alternative large-scale high-temperature solid oxide electrolysis hydrogen production facilities

We extend our past cost analysis of gigawatt-scale solid oxide electrolysis (SOE) facilities that produce high purity hydrogen gas from water by estimating construction and operating costs for three new alternative design cases: (1) offsite feed steam generation; (2) near-atmospheric pressure (NAP) stack; and (3) onsite electric boiler feed steam generation. Pressure effects on hydrogen electrode-(cathode-)supported SOE cell (SOEC) stack performance are estimated for the same assumed cell and stack construction and used to determine facility-wide stack capital costs for achieving a fixed H2 production at different pressures. Modular balance of plant (BOP) process equipment capital costs are estimated for each new alternative design case using our past equipment sizing, design, and cost data and scaling relationships. Furthermore, we update BOP equipment sizing and design for the NAP case using Aspen®. Vendor quotes for electric boilers are used to estimate costs for the electric boiler design case. Factory and onsite assembly and installation costs for SOEC stacks and BOP equipment are calculated using our past simplified first-principles approach. First-of-a-kind (FOAK) and N th -of-a-kind (NOAK) production maturity cost estimates are included for all results. The case with NAP stacks offers the lowest facility total capital cost (TCC, ~23% lower than base) while use of small electric boilers requires the highest TCC (~3% higher than base). H 2 production prices decrease from the base of ~$\$2.17$ /kgH 2 to ~$\$1.92$/kgH 2 for 1 GW e DC SIP facilities utilizing NAP stacks supplied by offsites steam situated in large modules and blocks for $\$0.030$/kWh e and $0.009/kWh t prices for electricity and thermal energy, respectively. We report all costs in 2021 US dollars.

Balance of plant (BOP) process equipment↗

In planta production of the nylon precursor beta-ketoadipate

Beta-ketoadipate (βKA) is an intermediate of the βKA pathway involved in the degradation of aromatic compounds in several bacteria and fungi. Beta-ketoadipate also represents a promising chemical for the manufacturing of performance-advantaged nylons. We established a strategy for the in planta synthesis of βKA via manipulation of the shikimate pathway and the expression of bacterial enzymes from the βKA pathway. Using Nicotiana benthamiana as a transient expression system, we demonstrated the efficient conversion of protocatechuate (PCA) to βKA when plastid-targeted bacterial-derived PCA 3,4-dioxygenase (PcaHG) and 3-carboxy-cis,cis-muconate cycloisomerase (PcaB) were co-expressed with 3-deoxy-D-arabinoheptulosonate 7-phosphate synthase (AroG) and 3-dehydroshikimate dehydratase (QsuB). This metabolic pathway was reconstituted in Arabidopsis by introducing a construct (pAtβKA) with stacked pcaG, pcaH, and pcaB genes into a PCA-overproducing genetic background that expresses AroG and QsuB (referred as QsuB-2). The resulting QsuB-2 x pAtβKA stable lines displayed βKA titers as high as 0.25 % on a dry weight basis in stems, along with a drastic reduction in lignin content and improvement of biomass saccharification efficiency compared to wild-type controls, and without any significant reduction in biomass yields. Using biomass sorghum as a potential crop for large-scale βKA production, techno-economic analysis indicated that βKA accumulated at titers of 0.25 % and 4 % on a dry weight basis could be competitively priced in the range of $2.04-34.49/kg and $0.47-2.12/kg, respectively, depending on the selling price of the residual biomass recovered after βKA extraction. This study lays the foundation for a more environmentally-friendly synthesis of βKA using plants as production hosts.

Kazaz, Sami↗