Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “probabilistic model”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

257 records · Page 15
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Long-Term Impacts of Constrained Transmission Deployment on the Cost-Reliability Tradeoff

Traditional Resource Adequacy (RA) frameworks in the U.S. undervalue the contributions of inter-regional transmission to resource adequacy during stress periods, focusing on the availability of nameplate capacity instead. However, availability of nameplate capacity does not always translate into electricity delivery, especially during tail events. Moreover, the rapid deployment of energy-limited resources and increasing electricity demand challenge existing resource adequacy frameworks and couple regional electricity demand and availability of supply via transmission. We propose a two-stage framework that goes beyond the existing capacity-centered approaches to reveal the RA contributions of transmission. In the first stage we introduce a multi-objective optimization framework to quantify the merits of transmission expansion via Pareto Frontiers under alternative futures of no transmission investment, primary energy resources availability and demand growth. The second stage focuses on tail events and leverages the results of the first stage to characterize the risk profile of regional consumers across the U.S. under the alternative energy futures. We find that no new transmission can lead to a more expensive and less reliable national grid across scenarios, however, the impact on regional RA can vary. The probabilistic analysis reveals that transmission investments can alleviate the tail risk of consumers, however, the availability of fuel resources does not always alleviate regional tail risks. Our findings inform policymakers and utilities on the prioritization of transmission investments to mitigate the risk of widespread outages, also for tail events, and ensure reliable and affordable electricity delivery to all.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Idaho National Laboratory Integrated Multisite SSHAC Level 3: Probabilistic Volcanic Hazards Assessment

The Idaho National Laboratory (INL) resides on the eastern Snake River Plain (ESRP), part of the Snake River Plain (SRP) with a complex origin and geologic history of volcanism. Much of the Quaternary (last 2.58 million years) volcanism within 400 km of INL is genetically associated with a major thermal anomaly referred to as the Yellowstone hotspot, which is currently located more than 180 km northeast of INL. Near INL, local volcanic sources include silicic domes near its southern border, and numerous dike-fed basaltic vents of the ESRP, some of which are near or within the INL boundaries. Quantitative probabilistic assessments of screened-in volcanic hazardous phenomena for nine different facility complexes at the INL are presented for a Senior Seismic Hazard Analysis Committee (SSHAC) Level 3 (SL3) study. The comprehensive, integrated multisite SSHAC study consists of a single regional Probabilistic Volcanic Hazards Assessment (PVHA) that pertains to all nine INL facility complexes, with site-specific information developed at each respective area of interest (AOI), referred to as the "INL facility AOI" (Figure ES-1). Hazard products are generated for specified INL facility AOIs for use by multiple stakeholders from different agencies in risk-informed decision-making regarding site selection, operations, and design of nuclear facilities at INL, consistent with U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) regulatory guidance. The study also serves as the basis for future periodic safety assessments required for existing DOE facilities, such as 10-year evaluations of natural-phenomena hazards. Elements of the INL PVHA including initial characterization, screening, quantitative assessments of eruption and hazard potential, and consideration of facility needs are conducted using the three phases of the SSHAC process: evaluation, integration, and documentation. As per regulatory guidance, the SSHAC framework provided the necessary processes and procedures for the PVHA Technical Integration (TI) team, at three workshops, five formal working meetings and many TI team remote meetings, to conduct initial characterization, screen the volcanic hazards, create PVHA model inputs, exercise those models in the PVHA, consider facility-specific volcanic hazard needs, and perform final hazard calculations. The Participatory Peer Review Panel (PPRP) provided independent oversight and performed process and technical reviews of the PVHA throughout its duration. The study included an extensive New Data Collection and Analyses (NDCA) program developed by the PVHA TI team to reduce uncertainties in hazard-significant elements in the PVHA model. NDCA activities generated 20 reports providing important contributory datasets and results to the project database for characterizing the ESRP. For example, a report compiling the dimensions of ESRP shield volcanoes and lava fields was used to construct volcanic footprints (areas of impact), was compared with data from INL subsurface cores, and was used to validate the results of lava-flow inundation modeling on the contemporary terrain. Another example is the acquisition of aeromagnetic data over INL and its surrounding area, with maps of buried magmatic features (e.g., subsurface volcanoes and swarms of feeder dikes) that informed the PVHA conceptual model of volcanism. The SSHAC evaluation process was used to conduct all elements of the PVHA including initial characterization and screening. Existing data and NDCA activities provided the foundation to develop the tectonomagmatic conceptual model of volcanism for the region of geographical interest in the SRP and Yellowstone hotspot volcanic system, and for considering volcanoes in the western US. Considering Quaternary volcanic sources active during this period, the screening approach identified and evaluated magma compositions, types of eruptive and intrusive phenomena, types of hazardous phenomena, and proximity of sources to INL. The PVHA TI team evaluated 18 types of magmatic sources in terms of 20 potentially hazardous phenomena, resulting in 360 screening decisions. The screening process resulted in 140 screened-in hazardous volcanic phenomena for Quaternary volcanic sources 1) proximal to INL facility complexes in the ESRP (64 basaltic and 54 silicic), 2) regional sources associated with the Yellowstone caldera system and Blackfoot Reservoir volcanic field (7), and 3) more distal sources from thirteen Cascade volcanoes and two volcanoes at Long Valley caldera (CA).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Upper bounds for 21st-century surface air temperatures in the Western United States

The last decade has seen a large number of severe heatwaves that were unprecedented in the observational record, highlighting challenges associated with observationally-based statistical quantification of the likelihood and magnitude of future extreme temperatures. An alternative to such probabilistic assessments is identification of upper bounds that quantify the hottest surface air temperatures that can possibly be achieved by the end of the 21st century. Theory, simulations, and observational analyses support the existence of a finite upper bound for surface air temperature; however, estimates for future upper-bound values that are realistic and usable for planning remain unavailable. Here, we combine atmospheric theory with large ensembles of dynamically downscaled projections to estimate historical and end-of-century upper bounds for surface air temperatures. A number of physical mechanisms can influence upper bounds, and at the end of the 21st century, estimates based on mechanisms that yield more moderate upper-bounds produce values around 60∘C for much of the Western United States and in excess of 80∘C for the hottest parts of the domain. Even cooler high-altitude locations have end-of-century upper bounds over 50∘C. Although these upper-bound estimates might seem implausibly large, increases in the upper bounds over the 21st century are similar to increases in dynamically downscaled peak surface temperatures after adjusting those downscaled temperatures to eliminate the possibly biased model trends in surface specific humidity. While upper bound estimates are high relative to historical observations, they nonetheless suggest that heatwave intensity risk is bounded, with uncertainty dominated by projections of surface and upper-level humidity.

Risser, Mark D↗
DOE OSTI2025

Measurements of Beam Spin Asymmetries in p+p0 and p´p0 Dihadron Production at CLAS12

Semi-Inclusive Deep Inelastic Scattering (SIDIS) is a powerful experimental tool for studying the internal structure and dynamics of the proton, revealing how quarks and gluons are distributed and interact within it. SIDIS describes a process where an elec tron scatters off one of the constituent quarks within the proton, causing it to undergo hadronization, creating multiple hadrons in the final state. Through factorization, the full process can be split into probabilistic components: one which describes the internal structure of the proton using Parton Distribution Functions (PDFs), and another which describes the hadronization process using Fragmentation Functions (FFs). These functions are non-perturbative quantities of Quantum Chromodynamics (QCD), meaning they cannot be calculated directly from first principles and must instead be extracted from experimental measurements. Acommon approach for accessing PDFs and FFs using SIDIS is to measure asymmetries. In this context, asymmetries correspond to subtle differences in the angular distribution of outgoing particles that arise when the spin orientation of the incoming beam or target is reversed. Because many of these effects only appear when spin is involved, they isolate specific, nuanced properties of the proton’s spin-structure that are otherwise hidden in spin averaged measurements. In practice, they show up as specific azimuthal modulations (e.g., sin ¿R, sin(¿h ´ ¿R)), whose amplitudes isolate convolutions of PDFs and FFs at leading and subleading twist. Non-zero asymmetries of these angular distributions can be traced back to unique combinations of PDFs and FFs, offering a way to probe them directly. In this work, we measure SIDIS by analyzing high energy electron-proton scattering events using the CLAS12 detector at Jefferson Lab. This study focuses on subset of SIDIS referred to as dihadron SIDIS, where pairs of hadrons — here p+p0 and p´p0 — are observed. We analyzed these dihadrons using detector data collected during Fall 2018 and Spring 2019, where longitudinally polarized electrons from the CEBAF accelerator were incident on a liquid hydrogen target. A photon classifier using a Gradient Boosted Trees (GBTs) architecture was trained using Monte Carlo simulations to reduce the amount of iv false combinatorial background p0’s. When deployed on experimental data, the model in creases our dihadron statistics by up to five-fold compared to previous CLAS12 p0 analyses. This work reports the first measurements of beam spin asymmetries for p+p0 and p´p0 dihadron production in SIDIS. The measured asymmetries offer new insights to the spin-dependent structure and dynamics within the proton, as well as the spin-dependent properties of quark fragmentation. Non-zero twist-3 sin¿R amplitudes are observed, pro viding sensitivity to the subleading twist PDF e(x). The PDF e(x) encodes quark-gluon correlations within the proton — a property that is otherwise inaccessible at leading twist. Additionally, this work measured significant twist-2 modulations carried by sin(¿h ´ ¿R) and sin(2¿h ´2¿R), providing experimental access to the helicity dihadron fragmentation function (DiFF) GK 1 . Because there is no equivalent quark helicity-dependent FF in single pion SIDIS, the DiFF GK 1 offers a unique lens into novel spin-dependent fragmentation. For instance, the twist-2 modulations observed in this study are enhanced by vector mesons created during fragmentation — a behavior predicted by phenomenological models. This study broadens our understanding of dihadron fragmentation, revealing new details about the flavor and charge dependence of hadronization.

Matousek, Gregory [Duke Univ., Durham, NC (United ↗
DOE OSTI2026

Discovery of Probabilistic Dirichlet-to-Neumann Maps on Graphs

Dirichlet-to-Neumann maps enable the coupling of multiphysics simulations across computational subdomains by ensuring continuity of state variables and fluxes at artificial interfaces. We present a novel method for learning Dirichlet-to-Neumann maps on graphs using Gaussian processes, specifically for problems where the data obey a conservation law arising from an underlying partial differential equation. Our approach combines discrete exterior calculus and nonlinear optimal recovery to infer relationships between vertex and edge values. This framework yields data-driven predictions with uncertainty quantification across the entire graph, even when observations are limited to a subset of vertices and edges. By minimizing the reproducing kernel Hilbert space norm while penalizing kernel complexity through maximum likelihood estimation, our method ensures that the resulting surrogate strictly enforces conservation laws without overfitting. We demonstrate our method on two representative applications: subsurface flow in fracture networks and arterial blood flow. Finally, the results demonstrate that the method maintains high accuracy and well-calibrated uncertainty estimates even under severe data scarcity, highlighting its potential for scientific applications where limited data and reliable uncertainty quantification are critical.

Dirichlet-to-Neumann map↗