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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 271 records · Page 15
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2012

Safety Risk Knowledge Elicitation in Support of Aeronautical R and D Portfolio Management: A Case Study

Aviation is a problem domain characterized by a high level of system complexity and uncertainty. Safety risk analysis in such a domain is especially challenging given the multitude of operations and diverse stakeholders. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) projects that by 2025 air traffic will increase by more than 50 percent with 1.1 billion passengers a year and more than 85,000 flights every 24 hours contributing to further delays and congestion in the sky (Circelli, 2011). This increased system complexity necessitates the application of structured safety risk analysis methods to understand and eliminate where possible, reduce, and/or mitigate risk factors. The use of expert judgments for probabilistic safety analysis in such a complex domain is necessary especially when evaluating the projected impact of future technologies, capabilities, and procedures for which current operational data may be scarce. Management of an R&D product portfolio in such a dynamic domain needs a systematic process to elicit these expert judgments, process modeling results, perform sensitivity analyses, and efficiently communicate the modeling results to decision makers. In this paper a case study focusing on the application of an R&D portfolio of aeronautical products intended to mitigate aircraft Loss of Control (LOC) accidents is presented. In particular, the knowledge elicitation process with three subject matter experts who contributed to the safety risk model is emphasized. The application and refinement of a verbal-numerical scale for conditional probability elicitation in a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) is discussed. The preliminary findings from this initial step of a three-part elicitation are important to project management practitioners as they illustrate the vital contribution of systematic knowledge elicitation in complex domains.

Shih, Ann T.↗
NASA NTRS1989

The origin of polynucleotide-directed protein synthesis

If protein synthesis evolved in an RNA world it was probably preceded by simpler processes by means of which interaction with amino acids conferred selective advantage on replicating RNA molecules. It is suggested that at first the simple attachment of amino acids to the 2'(3') termini of RNA templates favored initiation of replication at the end of the template rather than at internal positions. The second stage in the evolution of protein synthesis would probably have been the association of pairs of charged RNA adaptors in such a way as to favor noncoded formation of peptides. Only after this process had become efficient could coded synthesis have begun.

Orgel, Leslie E.↗
NASA NTRS1985

High stress shallow moonquakes - Evidence for an initially totally molten moon

Thermoelastic stress calculations show that if the moon was initially molten only in the outer few hundred kilometers, as in the magma ocean model of the moon, the highlands crust should be aseismic. In contrast, if the moon was initially totally molten, high stress (1 to more than about 3 kbar), shallow (0 to about 6 km deep), compressional moonquakes should be occurring in the highlands crust. Calculations of the minimum stress drops made for the 28 observed shallow moonquakes suggest that 3 of them probably have stress drops in the kbar range. Thus, these very limited seismic data are consistent with the model that the moon was initially totally molten.

Binder, A. B.↗
NASA NTRS1974

U-Th-Pb and Rb-Sr systematics of Apollo 17 boulder 7 from the North Massif of the Taurus-Littrow valley

Portions of highland breccia boulder 7 collected during the Apollo 17 mission were studied using U-Th-Pb and Rb-Sr systematics. A Rb-Sr internal isochron age of 3.89 plus or minus 0.08 b.y. with an initial Sr-87/Sr-86 of 0.69926 plus or minus 0.00008 was obtained for clast 1 (77135,57) (a troctolitic microbreccia). A troctolitic portion of microbreccia clast 77215,37 yielded a U-Pb internal isochron of 3.8 plus or minus 0.2 b.y. and an initial Pb-206/Pb-207 of 0.69. These internal isochron ages are interpreted as reflecting metamorphic events, probably related to impacts, which reset Rb-Sr and U-Pb mineral systems of older rocks.

Nunes, P. D.↗
NASA NTRS1977

The chemical evolution of molecular clouds

The nonequilibrium chemistry of dense molecular clouds (10,000 to 1 million hydrogen molecules per cu cm) is studied in the framework of a model that includes the latest published chemical data and most of the recent theoretical advances. In this model the only important external source of ionization is assumed to be high-energy cosmic-ray bombardment; standard charge-transfer reactions are taken into account as well as reactions that transfer charge from molecular ions to trace-metal atoms. Schemes are proposed for the synthesis of such species as NCO, HNCO, and CN. The role played by adsorption and condensation of molecules on the surface of dust grains is investigated, and effects on the chemical evolution of a dense molecular cloud are considered which result from varying the total density or the elemental abundances and from assuming negligible or severe condensation of gaseous species on dust grains. It is shown that the chemical-equilibrium time scale is given approximately by the depletion times of oxygen and nitrogen when the condensation efficiency is negligible; that this time scale is probably in the range from 1 to 4 million years, depending on the elemental composition and initial conditions in the cloud; and that this time scale is insensitive to variations in the total density.

Iglesias, E.↗
NASA NTRS1979

Collisional evolution of asteroids - Populations, rotations, and velocities

The collisional evolution of various initial populations of asteroids is simulated numerically and compared with the present asteroid size-frequency distribution to find those populations which collisionally relax to the present belt. Both orbital and size distributions are treated, as well as the simultaneous evolution of two collisionally interacting populations with different physical properties. If the initial belt distribution was a power law, the initial belt population at the time when the present high-collision speed was established was probably only modestly larger than the present population. However, other distributions allow a more massive early belt. The rotational evolution due to collisions of asteroids with power-law distributions is also examined and compared with observations, leading to conclusions generally in agreement with those of size evolution. The high-collision speed in the present belt is likely due to Jupiter. Gravitational stirring by massive Jupiter-scattered planetesimals or secular resonances sweeping through the belt are the most probable mechanisms.

Davis, D. R.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Asymptotic behavior of curvature of surface elements in isotropic turbulence

The asymptotic behavior of the curvature of material elements in turbulence is investigated using Lagrangian velocity-gradient time series obtained from direct numerical simulations of isotropic turbulence. Several material-element ensembles of different initial curvatures and shapes are studied. It is found that, at long times, the (first five) moments of the logarithm of characteristic curvature and shape factor asymptote to values that are independent of the initial curvature or shape. This evidence strongly suggests that the asymptotic pdf's of the curvature and shape of material elements are stationary and independent of initial conditions. Irrespective of initial curvature or shape, the asymptotic shape of a material surface is cylindrical with a high probability.

Girimaji, S. S.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Risk-Assessment Computer Program

RISK D/C is prototype computer program assisting in attempts to do program risk modeling for Space Exploration Initiative (SEI) architectures proposed in Synthesis Group Report. Risk assessment performed with respect to risk events, probabilities, and severities of potential results. Enables ranking, with respect to effectiveness, of risk-mitigation strategies proposed for exploration program architecture. Allows for fact that risk assessment in early phases of planning subjective. Although specific to SEI in present form, also used as software framework for development of risk-assessment programs for other specific uses. Developed for Macintosh(TM) series computer. Requires HyperCard(TM) 2.0 or later, as well as 2 Mb of random-access memory and System 6.0.8 or later.

Dias, William C.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Large eddy simulations and direct numerical simulations of high speed turbulent reacting flows

The primary objective of this research is to extend current capabilities of Large Eddy Simulations (LES) and Direct Numerical Simulations (DNS) for the computational analyses of high speed reacting flows. Our efforts in the first two years of this research have been concentrated on a priori investigations of single-point Probability Density Function (PDF) methods for providing subgrid closures in reacting turbulent flows. In the efforts initiated in the third year, our primary focus has been on performing actual LES by means of PDF methods. The approach is based on assumed PDF methods and we have performed extensive analysis of turbulent reacting flows by means of LES. This includes simulations of both three-dimensional (3D) isotropic compressible flows and two-dimensional reacting planar mixing layers. In addition to these LES analyses, some work is in progress to assess the extent of validity of our assumed PDF methods. This assessment is done by making detailed companions with recent laboratory data in predicting the rate of reactant conversion in parallel reacting shear flows. This report provides a summary of our achievements for the first six months of the third year of this program.

Givi, P.↗
NASA NTRS1995

The remarkable eclipsing asynchronous AM Herculis binary RX J19402-1025

We report on two years of photometric and spectroscopic observation of the recently discovered AM Herculis star RX J19402-1025. A sharp eclipse feature is present in the optical and X-ray light curves, repeating with a period of 12116.290 +/- 0.003 s. The out-of-eclipse optical waveform contains approximately equal contributions from a signal at the same period and another signal at 12150 s. As these signals drift in and out of phase, the wave form of the light curve changes in a complex but predictable manner. After one entire 'supercycle' of 50 days (the beat period between the shorter periods), the light curve returns to its initial shape. We present long-term ephemerides for each of these periods. It is highly probable that the eclipse period is the underlying orbital period, while the magnetic white dwarf rotates with P = 12150 s. The eclipses appear to be eclipses of the white dwarf by the secondary star. But there is probably also a small obscuring effect from cold gas surrounding the secondary, especially on the orbit-leading side where the stream begins to fall towards the white dwarf. The latter hypothesis can account for several puzzling effects in this star, as well as the tendency among most AM Her stars for the sharp emission-line components to slightly precede the actual motion of the secondary. The presence of eclipses in an asynchronous AM Her star provides a marvelous opportunity to study how changes in the orientation of magnetic field lines affect the accretion flows. Repeated polarimetric light curves and high-resolution studies of the emission lines are now critical to exploit this potential.

Patterson, Joseph↗
NASA NTRS1999

Probabilistic Assessment of Fracture Progression in Composite Structures

This report describes methods and corresponding computer codes that are used to evaluate progressive damage and fracture and to perform probabilistic assessment in built-up composite structures. Structural response is assessed probabilistically, during progressive fracture. The effects of design variable uncertainties on structural fracture progression are quantified. The fast probability integrator (FPI) is used to assess the response scatter in the composite structure at damage initiation. The sensitivity of the damage response to design variables is computed. The methods are general purpose and are applicable to stitched and unstitched composites in all types of structures and fracture processes starting from damage initiation to unstable propagation and to global structure collapse. The methods are demonstrated for a polymer matrix composite stiffened panel subjected to pressure. The results indicated that composite constituent properties, fabrication parameters, and respective uncertainties have a significant effect on structural durability and reliability. Design implications with regard to damage progression, damage tolerance, and reliability of composite structures are examined.

Chamis, Christos C.↗
NASA NTRS2000

A High Resolution Spectroscopic Observation of CAL 83 with XMM-Newton/RGS

We present the first high resolution photospheric X-ray spectrum of a Supersoft X-ray Source, the famous CAL 83 in the Large Magellanic Cloud. The spectrum was obtained with the Reflection Grating Spectrometer on XMM-Newton during the Calibration/Performance Verification phase of the observatory. The spectrum covers the range 20-40 A at an approximately constant resolution of 0.05 A, and shows very significant, intricate detail, that is very sensitive to the physical properties of the object. We present the results of an initial investigation of the spectrum, from which we draw the conclusion that the spectral structure is probably dominated by numerous absorption features due to transitions in the Gshells of the mid-2 elements and the M-shell of Fe, in addition to a few strong K-shell features due to CNO.

Paerels, Frits↗
NASA NTRS2006

Stochastic Representation of Chaos Using Terminal Attractors

A nonlinear version of the Liouville equation based on terminal attractors is part of a mathematical formalism for describing postinstability motions of dynamical systems characterized by exponential divergences of trajectories leading to chaos (including turbulence as a form of chaos). The formalism can be applied to both conservative systems (e.g., multibody systems in celestial mechanics) and dissipative systems (e.g., viscous fluids). The development of the present formalism was undertaken in an effort to remove positive Lyapunov exponents. The means chosen to accomplish this is coupling of the governing dynamical equations with the corresponding Liouville equation that describes the evolution of the flow of error probability. The underlying idea is to suppress the divergences of different trajectories that correspond to different initial conditions, without affecting a target trajectory, which is one that starts with prescribed initial conditions.

Zak, Michail↗
NASA NTRS2015

Peak Pc Prediction in Conjunction Analysis: Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis

Satellite conjunction risk typically evaluated through the probability of collision (Pc). Considers both conjunction geometry and uncertainties in both state estimates. Conjunction events initially discovered through Joint Space Operations Center (JSpOC) screenings, usually seven days before Time of Closest Approach (TCA). However, JSpOC continues to track objects and issue conjunction updates. Changes in state estimate and reduced propagation time cause Pc to change as event develops. These changes a combination of potentially predictable development and unpredictable changes in state estimate covariance. Operationally useful datum: the peak Pc. If it can reasonably be inferred that the peak Pc value has passed, then risk assessment can be conducted against this peak value. If this value is below remediation level, then event intensity can be relaxed. Can the peak Pc location be reasonably predicted?

Operations↗
NASA NTRS2024

A Specialized Ultrasound Protocol for NASA's Renal Stone Surveillance and Clinical Practice

INTRODUCTION Ample evidence exists on the effectiveness of ultrasound in the diagnosis of kidney stones. However, terrestrial practice is mostly concerned with diagnosis of clinically significant urolithiasis. Adapting this non-irradiating, low-cost imaging modality for the asymptomatic astronaut population offers high-sensitivity screening and limits their career radiation dose. METHODS NASA developed a novel ultrasound-based detection and surveillance protocol to identify, categorize, and monitor mineralized renal material (MRM) in astronauts. The term MRM was developed to denote abnormal, presumably calcified, focal material of unknown clinical significance in the kidneys. Sonographic criteria for MRMs include measurable echogenic foci, their detectability in multiple, designated imaging plains, posterior shadowing, and “twinkle” pattern visualized in Color Doppler and/or demonstrated in Spectral Doppler modes. The mere discovery of an MRM does not trigger further imaging or intervention, unless the affected crewmember is mission-assigned, or the MRM meets actionable criteria based on size, location, and sonographic characteristics. If the threshold is met, the crew surgeon is notified, and additional diagnostic imaging and urology consultation are considered. RESULTS In total, 73 individuals have been scanned using our specialized methods, 60 have had more than one study done. As of April 2023, 282 total studies have been performed. So far, over 30 pairs of pre-and postflight studies have been obtained, and the findings are presented elsewhere in this panel. DISCUSSION A surveillance program was initiated nine years ago to screen asymptomatic members of the astronaut corps for renal calcifications, from their initial hiring, through their mission timeframes, and throughout their career. The goal is to reduce the probability that an astronaut will fly with a renal stone that may become symptomatic. This also gives NASA the information it needs to improve screening criteria for future long-duration crewed missions.

H Lyons↗
NASA NTRS2015

An Integrated 0-1 Hour First-Flash Lightning Nowcasting, Lightning Amount and Lightning Jump Warning Capability

Lightning one of the most dangerous weather-related phenomena, especially as many jobs and activities occur outdoors, presenting risk from a lightning strike. Cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning represents a considerable safety threat to people at airfields, marinas, and outdoor facilities-from airfield personnel, to people attending outdoor stadium events, on beaches and golf courses, to mariners, as well as emergency personnel. Holle et al. (2005) show that 90% of lightning deaths occurred outdoors, while 10% occurred indoors despite the perception of safety when inside buildings. Curran et al. (2000) found that nearly half of fatalities due to weather were related to convective weather in the 1992-1994 timeframe, with lightning causing a large component of the fatalities, in addition to tornadoes and flash flooding. Related to the aviation industry, CG lightning represents a considerable hazard to baggage-handlers, aircraft refuelers, food caterers, and emergency personnel, who all become exposed to the risk of being struck within short time periods while convective storm clouds develop. Airport safety protocols require that ramp operations be modified or discontinued when lightning is in the vicinity (typically 16 km), which becomes very costly and disruptive to flight operations. Therefore, much focus has been paid to nowcasting the first-time initiation and extent of lightning, both of CG and of any lightning (e.g, in-cloud, cloud-to-cloud). For this project three lightning nowcasting methodologies will be combined: (1) a GOESbased 0-1 hour lightning initiation (LI) product (Harris et al. 2010; Iskenderian et al. 2012), (2) a High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) lightning probability and forecasted lightning flash density product, such that a quantitative amount of lightning (QL) can be assigned to a location of expected LI, and (3) an algorithm that relates Pseudo-GLM data (Stano et al. 2012, 2014) to the so-called "lightning jump" (LJ) methodology (Shultz et al. 2011) to monitor lightning trends and to anticipate/forecast severe weather (hail > or =2.5 cm, winds > or =25 m/s, tornadoes). The result will be a time-continuous algorithm that uses GOES satellite, radar fields, and HRRR model fields to nowcast first-flash LI and QL, and subsequently monitors lightning trends on a perstorm basis within the LJ algorithm for possible severe weather occurrence out to > or =3 hours. The LI-QL-LJ product will also help prepare the operational forecast community for Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) data expected in late 2015, as these data are monitored for ongoing convective storms. The LI-QL-LJ product will first predict where new lightning is highly probable using GOES imagery of developing cumulus clouds, followed by n analysis of NWS (dual-polarization) radar indicators (reflectivity at the -10 C altitude) of lightning occurrence, to increase confidence that LI is immanent. Once lightning is observed, time-continuous lightning mapping array and Pseudo-GLM observations will be analyzed to assess trends and the severe weather threat as identified by trends in lightning (i.e. LJs). Additionally, 5- and 15-min GOES imagery will then be evaluated on a per-storm basis for overshooting and other cloud-top features known to be associated with severe storms. For the processing framework, the GOES-R 0-1 hour convective initiation algorithm's output will be developed within the Warning Decision Support System - Integrated Information (WDSS-II) tracking tool, and merged with radar and lightning (LMA/Psuedo-GLM) datasets for active storms. The initial focus of system development will be over North Alabama for select lightning-active days in summer 2014, yet will be formed in an expandable manner. The lightning alert tool will also be developed in concert with National Weather Service (NWS) forecasters to meet their needs for real-time, accurate first-flash LI and timing, as well as anticipated lightning trends, amounts, continuation and cessation, so to provide key situational awareness and decision support information. The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center will provide important logistical and collaborative support and training, involving interactions with the NWS and broader user community.

Mecikalski, John↗
NASA NTRS2012

An Initial Examination for Verifying Separation Algorithms by Simulation

An open question in algorithms for aircraft is what can be validated by simulation where the simulation shows that the probability of undesirable events is below some given level at some confidence level. The problem is including enough realism to be convincing while retaining enough efficiency to run the large number of trials needed for high confidence. The paper first proposes a goal based on the number of flights per year in several regions. The paper examines the probabilistic interpretation of this goal and computes the number of trials needed to establish it at an equivalent confidence level. Since any simulation is likely to consider the algorithms for only one type of event and there are several types of events, the paper examines under what conditions this separate consideration is valid. This paper is an initial effort, and as such, it considers separation maneuvers, which are elementary but include numerous aspects of aircraft behavior. The scenario includes decisions under uncertainty since the position of each aircraft is only known to the other by broadcasting where GPS believes each aircraft to be (ADS-B). Each aircraft operates under feedback control with perturbations. It is shown that a scenario three or four orders of magnitude more complex is feasible. The question of what can be validated by simulation remains open, but there is reason to be optimistic.

White, Allan L.↗
NASA NTRS1972

Chilldown study of the single stage inducer test rig

Of the six chilldown tests, data from only one could be used for evaluation. During the rest of the chilldown tests, there was leakage hydrogen flow into the pump cavity prior to the initiation of the chilldown test. In all of the tests the hydrogen condition into the pump was probably 100% vapor. The data from this one test, therefore, can be used to compare only the single phase fluid correlation in the analytical pump chilldown model. In general, the actual pump chilled down much faster than predicted by the analytical pump model. There were insufficient data from the test to measure the pump flow rate and pump inlet fluid condition; therefore, these parameters were extrapolated based on related data which were available. However, even with the highest probable flow rate, the pump chilled faster than predicted.

Kimura, L. A.↗