Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “probability of initiation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 271 records · Page 15

A method for predicting failure statistics for steady state elevated temperature structural components

This paper presents the initial development of a high temperature life prediction method that accounts for the variability in the material properties of Grade 91 steel. The method accounts for material variability by fitting a variable 3-parameter Weibull distribution to experimental rupture data and accounts for the variability of creep deformation on the steady-state stresses via a Monte Carlo approach. To ensure reasonable computational times, the model represents the material as an extremely viscous Stokes fluid with a non-Newtonian viscosity, therefore solving the stress relaxation problem with a steady, static, instead of transient, analysis. Furthermore, the complete statistical analysis combines this model for creep deformation with a probabilistic model for creep rupture to evaluate the probability of premature failure for a set of sample problems, comparing the predicted failure statistics to the design life predicted by the ASME Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code rules.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Contrasting biological production trends over land and ocean

Terrestrial and marine ecosystems constitute the primary components of the Earth’s biosphere, yet their photosynthetic productions are typically studied separately, which limits understanding of planetary carbon uptake and biosphere health. Here, in this study, using multiple satellite-derived products, we identify contrasting net primary production (NPP) trends between land and ocean, probably reflecting their differential sensitivity to climate warming, especially in tropical regions. Planetary NPP shows an overall increase of 0.11 ± 0.13 PgC yr −1 (P = 0.05) from 2003 to 2021, driven by a significant terrestrial enhancement of 0.20 ± 0.07 PgC yr −1 (P < 0.001) and partially offset by an oceanic decline of −0.12 ± 0.12 PgC yr −1 (P = 0.07). While land contributes to the strong upwards NPP trend, the interannual variability in global NPP is predominantly driven by the ocean, especially during strong El Niño–Southern Oscillation events. Our findings highlight the resilience and potential vulnerability of biosphere primary productivity in a warming climate, calling for integrated land–ocean monitoring and assessment to support climate mitigation initiatives.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Successional adaptive strategies revealed by correlating arbuscular mycorrhizal fungal abundance with host plant gene expression

The shifts in adaptive strategies revealed by ecological succession and the mechanisms that facilitate these shifts are fundamental to ecology. These adaptive strategies could be particularly important in communities of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) mutualistic with sorghum, where strong AMF succession replaces initially ruderal species with competitive ones and where the strongest plant response to drought is to manage these AMF. Although most studies of agriculturally important fungi focus on parasites, the mutualistic symbionts, AMF, constitute a research system of human-associated fungi whose relative simplicity and synchrony are conducive to experimental ecology. First, we hypothesize that, when irrigation is stopped to mimic drought, competitive AMF species should be replaced by AMF species tolerant to drought stress. We then, for the first time, correlate AMF abundance and host plant transcription to test two novel hypotheses about the mechanisms behind the shift from ruderal to competitive AMF. Surprisingly, despite imposing drought stress, we found no stress-tolerant AMF, probably due to our agricultural system having been irrigated for nearly six decades. Remarkably, we found strong and differential correlation between the successional shift from ruderal to competitive AMF and sorghum genes whose products (i) produce and release strigolactone signals, (ii) perceive mycorrhizal-lipochitinoligosaccharide (Myc-LCO) signals, (iii) provide plant lipid and sugar to AMF, and (iv) import minerals and water provided by AMF. These novel insights frame new hypotheses about AMF adaptive evolution and suggest a rationale for selecting AMF to reduce inputs and maximize yields in commercial agriculture.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Control of ternary alloy composition during remote epitaxy on graphene

Understanding the sticking coefficient σ, i.e., the probability of an adatom sticking to a surface, is essential for controlling the stoichiometry during epitaxial film growth. However, σ on monolayer graphene-covered surfaces and its impact on remote epitaxy are not understood. Here, using molecular-beam epitaxial growth of the magnetic shape memory alloy Ni 2 MnGa, we show that the sticking coefficients for metals on graphene-covered MgO (001) are less than one and are temperature and element dependent, as revealed by ion backscattering spectrometry and energy-dispersive x-ray spectroscopy. This lies in stark contrast with most transition metals sticking on semiconductor and oxide substrates, for which σ is near unity at typical growth temperatures (T < 800°C). By initiating growth below 400°C, where the sticking coefficients are closer to unity and wetting on the graphene surface is improved, we demonstrate the epitaxy of Ni 2 MnGa films with controlled stoichiometry that can be exfoliated to produce freestanding membranes. Straining these membranes tunes the magnetic coercive field. Finally, our results provide a route to synthesize membranes with complex stoichiometries whose properties can be manipulated via strain.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

BOTTLE 7 - Industry Projects & Engagement

One of BOTTLE's primary goals is to work with industry to catalyze new technologies towards our overall vision and mission using a centralized industry engagement plan which aims to 1) solve real-world problems in plastics upcycling via targeted, company-funded projects; 2) promote industrial engagement via streamlined access to BOTTLE partners and technologies; and 3) collaborate with companies to scale and deploy BOTTLE technologies into the economy. Our approach follows a 5-stage model: prospecting, initial engagement, knowledge sharing, proposal and contracting, and opportunity won. Since FY21, BOTTLE has onboarded a full-time Chief Technology Officer to spearhead industry engagement and lead industrially-funded research projects. To date, BOTTLE has engaged with >150 companies, executed 6 industrial funds-in CRADAs, completed 2 industry projects successfully, extended 2 CRADAs with follow-on funds, and submitted over 30 patent applications. Industry projects span the Deconstruction, Upcycling, and Redesign tasks, harness the capabilities of the cross-cutting tasks, and take advantage of the broad IP portfolio developed through DOE funding. BOTTLE partners have an inventory of innovations that can inform the design of industry-specific collaborative projects with the highest probability of producing novel IP. Engaging with a diverse set of companies has also directly informed our R&D portfolio towards maximizing impact and utility of BOTTLE innovations.

BIOMASS FUELS↗

Survey on stochastic distribution systems: A full probability density function control theory with potential applications

Complex systems seen either in general engineering practice or economics are subjected to ever increased uncertainties that are mostly represented as random variables or parameters, and the characteristics of random variables are represented by their probability density functions (PDFs). Controlling their PDFs means to shape their stochastic distributions and in general it would provide a full treatment for system analysis and operational control and optimization. This leads to the development of stochastic distribution control (SDC) systems theory in the past decades, where the original aim of the controller design is to realize a shape control of the distributions of certain random variables in their PDFs sense for some engineering processes. Indeed, once the PDFs of these random variables or parameters are used to describe their distribution characters, the control task is to obtain control signals so that the output PDFs of stochastic systems are made to follow their target PDFs. The subject of SDC was initially originated for non-Gaussian stochastic control systems design but has found a wide spectrum of applications in general systems in terms of data-driven modeling, analysis, signal processing (filtering), data mining via multivariable statistics, decision-making (optimization) for systems subjected to uncertainties and even in economics. In this context, SDC constitutes an effective primer tool for complex system analysis, control and operational optimizations. In this review paper, a detailed survey of the developments on the research of SDC systems will be made together with their wide spectrum applications and future perspectives.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Determination and analysis of sex ratios in heme oxygenase 1 gene targeted mouse embryos

Abstract Heme oxygenase 1 or Hmox1 enzyme is involved in catalyzing the first and rate‐limiting step in heme breakdown reactions. Many studies have reported a partial lethality of Hmox1 knockout mice obtained from heterozygous breeding pairs. Similar results were obtained in our transgenic mice colony and a sex specific bias was observed in the favor of males in the adult mice. Hmox1 independent factors which could have caused this bias were initially analyzed and it was found that those factors were not a reason behind this anomaly. Certain studies involving gene knockout hinted toward a prenatal or neonatal lethality of female knockout mice embryos or pups, respectively. In order to check if this bias was occurring in embryonic stages, that is, either if mutant female embryos were dying or if heterozygous mothers were not carrying embryos to term, we analyzed the sex‐ratios in mid‐ and late‐gestational ages (9.5–13.5 dpc and 14.5–18.5 dpc, respectively). Our results did not indicate any significant difference in the sex ratios in embryonic stages; hence, it was concluded that females are not dying in embryonic stages. It can be speculated that these deaths were probably occurring at neonatal age. More studies are required to confirm that the lack of Hmox1 gene products is the sole reason for this female lethality.

Jain, Sidhant↗

Looking at the bigger picture: Identifying the photoproducts of pyruvic acid at 193 nm

Here, photodissociation of pyruvic acid (PA) was studied in the gas-phase at 193 nm using two complementary techniques. The time-sliced velocity map imaging arrangement was used to determine kinetic energy release distributions of fragments and estimate dissociation timescales. The multiplexed photoionization mass spectrometer setup was used to identify and quantify photoproducts, including isomers and free radicals, by their mass-to-charge ratios, photoionization spectra, and kinetic time profiles. Using these two techniques, it is possible to observe the major dissociation products of PA photodissociation: CO 2 , CO, H, OH, HCO, CH 2 CO, CH 3 CO, and CH 3 . Acetaldehyde and vinyl alcohol are minor primary photoproducts at 193 nm, but products that are known to arise from their unimolecular dissociation, such as HCO, H 2 CO, and CH 4 , are identified and quantified. A multivariate analysis that takes into account the yields of the observed products and assumes a set of feasible primary dissociation reactions provides a reasonable description of the photoinitiated chemistry of PA despite the necessary simplifications caused by the complexity of the dissociation. These experiments offer the first comprehensive description of the dissociation pathways of PA initiated on the S 3 excited state. Most of the observed products and yields are rationalized on the basis of three reaction mechanisms: (i) decarboxylation terminating in CO 2 + other primary products (~50%); (ii) Norrish type I dissociation typical of carbonyls (~30%); and (iii) O—H and C—H bond fission reactions generating the H atom (~10%). The analysis shows that most of the dissociation reactions create more than two products. This observation is not surprising considering the high excitation energy (~51 800 cm –1 ) and fairly low energy required for dissociation of PA. We find that two-body fragmentation processes yielding CO 2 are minor, and the expected, unstable primary co-fragment, methylhydroxycarbene, is not observed because it probably undergoes fast secondary dissociation and/or isomerization. Norrish type I dissociation pathways generate OH and only small yields of CH 3 CO and HOCO, which have low dissociation energies and further decompose via three-body fragmentation processes. Experiments with d 1 -PA (CH 3 COCOOD) support the interpretations. The dissociation on S 3 is fast, as indicated by the products’ recoil angular anisotropy, but the roles of internal conversion and intersystem crossing to lower states are yet to be determined.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Radiological Impact of 2023 Operations at the Savannah River Site

This report presents the environmental dose assessment methods and the estimated potential doses to the public from 2023 Savannah River Site (SRS) air and liquid radioactive releases. Also documented are potential doses from special-case exposure scenarios, such as the consumption of wildlife or goat milk. Dose to the Offsite Representative Person The 2023 dose to the offsite representative person from SRS liquid releases was 0.14 mrem and from SRS air releases it was 0.016 mrem. To show compliance with the U. S. Department of Energy (DOE) all pathway dose standard of 100 mrem/yr, SRS conservatively adds these two doses for a total representative person dose of 0.16 mrem which is 0.16% of the DOE standard. Sportsman Doses Onsite Hunter: SRS conducts annual hunts to control onsite deer and feral hog populations. The estimated dose from consuming harvested deer or hog meat is determined for every onsite hunter. During 2023, the maximum potential dose an onsite hunter received was 9.42 mrem, or 9.42% of DOE’s 100 mrem/yr all pathway dose standard. Creek Mouth Fisherman: SRS estimated the maximum potential dose from fish consumption at 0.17 mrem from bass collected at the mouth of Lower Three Runs. This dose is 0.17% of the DOE standard. SRS bases this hypothetical dose on the low probability scenario that, during 2023, a fisherman consumed 24 kg (53 lbs) of bass caught exclusively from the mouth of Lower Three Runs. Release of Material Containing Residual Radioactivity SRS did not release any real property (land or buildings) in 2023. SRS unconditionally released a total of 13,324 items of personal property (such as tools) from radiological areas in 2023. Most of these items did not leave the Site. However, all of these items required no additional radiological controls post-survey as they met DOE Order 458.1 release criteria. Radiation Dose to Aquatic and Terrestrial Biota SRS conducts screening evaluations of plant and animal doses for aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. For 2023, all SRS aquatic system locations passed the initial (Level 1) screenings and no further assessments were required at those locations. For the land-based systems evaluation, SRS performed initial screenings using concentration data from the five onsite radiological soil sampling locations. Typically, SRS collects and analyzes only one soil sample per year from each location. For 2023, all land-based locations passed their initial (Level 1) pathway screenings.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Tactical Analysis for Calculating Contextual Risk at Boundaries: Summary of Laboratory Directed Research & Development Effort

The Tactical Analysis for Calculating Contextual Risk at Boundaries (TACCRAB) tool is an innovative digital twin (DT) platform and automated risk algorithm designed to transform operational decision-making in structured screening environments, with an initial focus on Southern Border Land Ports of Entry (POEs). The invention provides integration points for advanced artificial intelligence, predictive modeling, and real-time data analysis to produce a comprehensive risk management tool that enables proactive, data-informed security strategies. The core inventive features of TACCRAB center on its unique risk algorithm, which dynamically calculates contextual risk by synthesizing historical data, near real-time streaming data from the checkpoints themselves, and AI-generated predictions. Unlike traditional risk assessment methods, TACCRAB utilizes a DT to provide comprehensive operational insights, allowing stakeholders to visualize, simulate, and optimize checkpoint configurations with unprecedented speed and contextual awareness. TACCRAB's key innovation lies in its ability to combine multiple complex inputs - including technology detection probabilities, resource availability, screening pathway characteristics, and threat actor behavioral patterns - into a unified risk calculation and update these inputs based on changing operational and environmental conditions. By leveraging a DT that continuously updates and learns from linked data, TACCRAB can suggest adaptive mitigation strategies that minimize risk while maintaining operational efficiency. Particularly novel is the platform's approach to decision support, which goes beyond static risk assessment. The DT provides dynamic metrics such as wait times, resource allocation effectiveness, and potential emerging threat scenarios, enabling users to view sophisticated, relevant what-if simulations and optimize checkpoint operations in near real-time. The system's architecture allows for generalized application across different screening environments, such as secure facilities, ports of entry, and soft targets, making it a versatile tool for security and operational management. The invention distinguishes itself through its comprehensive integration of predictive modeling, AI-driven pattern discovery, and user-friendly interface design. By combining these elements, TACCRAB transforms complex risk data into actionable insights, supporting decision-makers at various organizational levels - from booth agents making split-second screening decisions to checkpoint managers optimizing the day's resource allocation to strategic planners managing long-term investments.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Play Fairway Analysis: Structurally Controlled Geothermal Systems in the Eastern Great Basin Extensional Regime, Utah

A research team with membership from the University of Utah/Energy & Geoscience Institute, the University of Utah/Dept. of Geology & Geophysics, and the Utah Geological Survey, undertook a play fairway analysis (PFA) for geothermal resources in the Eastern Great Basin (EGB) extensional tectonic regime of western Utah. This is a high-priority region for geothermal exploration because active Basin and Range (B&R) extension with volcanism having a N-S strike is superimposed upon pre-existing E-W belts of plutonic rocks and large-scale structural lineaments. Cumulative heat flow along the N-S strike of the state totals approximately 5 GWt above background stable interior. Three electricity producing power plants currently exist with substantial potential for increase. Succinctly, our PFA approach aims to resolve potential sources of heat and permeability in the region, which are the two principal criteria for establishing a geothermal resource. An initial Phase 1 was carried out using only existing geoscientific data in the area. Criteria selected for focusing heat potential include direct heat flow measurements in boreholes, magnetotelluric (MT) low resistivity anomalies, fluid/gas geochemistry, and proximity to recent volcanic eruptions. Permeability is established through geological structures (fault density, critically stressed areas, seismicity, gravity), and MT low resistivity anomalies. In Phase II of this PFA project, additional geological, geophysical and geochemical data were acquired and analysis carried out primarily over promising composite common risk (CCR) areas initially identified in Phase I in order to focus prospectivity and prepare for drilling recommendations. These prospects are near the Twin Peaks rhyolite field, high heat flow areas north of the producing Cove Fort system, and geophysical structure beneath the Crater Knoll area off the northeast flank of the Mineral Mountains. Additional data included MT site fill-in, structural mapping and analysis using high-resolution imagery, gravity and on-ground mapping, Nodal 3C passive seismic collection, and passive 3He surveying. Heat source and permeability potential are again expressed in terms of their individual common risk segment (CRS) maps, with a color scheme using green for most favorable (low risk) and red for least favorable (high risk). Diverse data types are united through the technique of probability kriging, which establishes prospectivity thresholds for each data type and then computes probability of exceeding that threshold over the PFA area. Modified CRS and CCRS maps are compared to those of Phase I to highlight tighter prospectivity focus. In doing so, the prospectivity threshold for heat was increased significantly to narrow the targeting. In the final Phase III of this project where a recommended deep thermal gradient hole was sited, additional geophysical, geochemical and geological field collection and analysis was carried out to refine drill hole targeting. This includes prospect-scale MT, gravity, structure, passive seismic deployment (Cove Fort area), and detailed 3He isotope profiling. It was the recommendation of the DOE Technical Monitoring Team (TMT) that one or more holes be sited in the north-ern Cove Fort area where legacy TG gradient holes showed high cumulative heat flow. These were to be of moderate depth, 2000-3000 feet, to reach the geothermal fluid table expected to start in excess of 1000 feet depth. The drilling organization stipulated by the DOE/GTO was that of the USGS Research Drilling Program (RDP) centered in Las Vegas, NV. A detailed well plan, appended to this report, was developed principally by Dr. Ben Barker consulting to University of Utah, Dr. Steve Pye on the DOE TMT, Mr. Steven Crawford of the USGS-RDP, and the project PI Phil Wannamaker. However, temperature and possible H 2 S at the systems lead to cancellation of the drilling last-minute as this appeared outside the experience base of the USGS-RDP. We hope to have the opportunity to revisit the test drilling and expand the Play Fairway Analysis of this region at some point in the future.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Thermodynamic Model and Initial Experimental Investigation of Air Dehumidification through Electrically Charged Vapor Capturing Electrostatic Droplets

The removal of water vapor from the air to reduce relative humidity is a well known indoor environmental comfort requirement. Common dehumidification approaches require a substantial amount of energy and usually involve the cooling of atmospheric humid air below its dew point or the use of absorbent/adsorbent materials to extract water vapor out of the air. More recently, researchers investigated the effect of electrostatic forces for enhancing water vapor condensation with the goal to reduce the energy consumption associated with dehumidification. However, the studies are limited, and there is a lack of correlations that can predict the dehumidification rate. In this thesis, a broad theoretical investigation to study the electrostatically enhanced condensation processes was carried out. These processes consist of the use of highly charged particles, preferably highly charged water droplets to attract polar water vapor molecules to their surfaces and promote condensation, a phenomenon known as dielectrophoresis. The electrical charge promotes the reduction of the vapor pressure on the droplets' surface with respect to the saturated pressure predicted by the Kelvin equation on curved surfaces and, consequently, the equilibrium between evaporation and condensation is shifted towards condensation. This investigation resulted in the development of a thermodynamics model, which was able to predict an effective size range of the charged droplets for optimal dehumidification, under ideal conditions. The range resulted in about 2 to 4 m in diameter, while the electrical charge was kept to the maximum limit predicted by the Rayleigh model. A sensitivity analysis on the variation of the size and the charge of the charged droplets was also performed. In terms of dehumidification rates, when six electrospray heads, i.e. the maximum number of heads tested in the experimental campaign, were considered, the model predicted very limited rates, way lower than the target of this research, i.e. a dehumidification rate in terms of relative humidity of 5 % with an air flow rate of 5 cfm. While ways to increase this rate existed, their implementation proved difficult for this initial investigation. According to the requirements predicted by the model, the use of electrosprays appeared the most suitable solution for the production of small but highly charged droplets. The electrospray features and operational modes were studied in detail and an electrospray assembly was designed to be tested in this initial experimental investigation. For this initial investigation, an experimental system was designed and built to validate the thermodynamics model and with the goal to achieve a dehumidification rate of 5 % in terms of relative humidity with an air flow rate of 5 cfm. The experimental system consisted of a wind tunnel test apparatus, dew point sensors, thermocouples for temperature measurements, pressure sensors and other devices. The experimental system was equipped with a computerized data acquisition and storage system. The system was suitable to evaluate the air water content differential before and after the test section where the electrospray heads were installed. The air water content differential was evaluated in terms of the ∆ω/ω_1 ratio, to eliminate the dependence on the dry bulb temperature along the test apparatus. This work presented initial experimental data for electrostatically enhanced dehumidification processes. Working parameters, such as air and water flow rates, high voltage potentials and polarity, deionized water types with different electrical conductivity, were varied to find the best combination for an improved dehumidification. With the set up used and the conditions considered, it was never possible to achieve a 5 % dehumidification rate with 5 cfm. In general, the dehumidification rate was always limited and lower than 1 % for all the air flow rates considered and mainly within the uncertainty of the dew point sensors. These results confirmed the already limited predictions of the thermodynamics model, for ideal conditions and the interesting and promising results obtained in some experimental investigations available in the open literature were not achievable in this thesis. The more probable reasons were the higher air flow rates considered and the complete absence of the use of cooling power, which was mainly implemented to facilitate the vapor condensation.

Morcelli, Stefano↗

Offshore application of landslide susceptibility mapping using gradient-boosted decision trees: a Gulf of Mexico case study

Abstract Among natural hazards occurring offshore, submarine landslides pose a significant risk to offshore infrastructure installations attached to the seafloor. With the offshore being important for current and future energy production, there is a need to anticipate where future landslide events are likely to occur to support planning and development projects. Using the northern Gulf of Mexico (GoM) as a case study, this paper performs Landslide Susceptibility Mapping (LSM) using a gradient-boosted decision tree (GBDT) model to characterize the spatial patterns of submarine landslide probability over the United States Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) where water depths are greater than 120 m. With known spatial extents of historic submarine landslides and a Geographic Information System (GIS) database of known topographical, geomorphological, geological, and geochemical factors, the resulting model was capable of accurately forecasting potential locations of sediment instability. Results of a permutation modelling approach indicated that LSM accuracy is sensitive to the number of unique training locations with model accuracy becoming more stable as the number of training regions was increased. The influence that each input feature had on predicting landslide susceptibility was evaluated using the SHapely Additive exPlanations (SHAP) feature attribution method. Areas of high and very high susceptibility were associated with steep terrain including salt basins and escarpments. This case study serves as an initial assessment of the machine learning (ML) capabilities for producing accurate submarine landslide susceptibility maps given the current state of available natural hazard-related datasets and conveys both successes and limitations.

Dyer, Alec S. (ORCID:0000000219813904)↗

Metal Bioavailability and Ecotoxicity of Bioremediated Oils and Tailings by BioTiger{sup TM}, a Microbial Consortium

Oil Sands and Mature Fine Tailings: Oil sand reserves are a major source of oil for the United States. Oil sands are a mixture of sand, clay, water, and bitumen. The refining process requires large volumes of water and generates hazardous Mature Fine Tailings (MFTs) that are stored in engineered settling ponds. They are of major environmental concern due to their persistence and difficulty to naturally biodegrade. MFT Contaminants of Concern: Naphthenic Acids (NAs), Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs), Benzene, Toluene, Ethylbenzene and Xylene (BTEX), Metals, Residual Bitumen. BioTiger{sup TM} (BT{sup TM}), the SRNL patented 12 component microbial consortia was found to cometabolically degrade some NAs and PAHs. Previous studies performing short term exposure (48 hours and 7 days) to BT{sup TM} have resulted in increased toxicity due to the partial degradation of PAHs forming toxic intermediates. Objective: Evaluate the ecotoxicity of BT{sup TM} remediated MFTs exposed to a 2 week period w/ yeast (Y) extract. This work will determine BT{sup TM}'s remediation of MFTs from Fort McMurray, Alberta. Acute toxicity tests will be performed under section 9 of EPA's Method for Measuring Acute Toxicity using the freshwater organism, Ceriodaphnia dubia. Monitor BT{sup TM} growth through Most Probable Number (MPN) counts, pH, and metal bioavailability will also be evaluated. Preparing tailing solutions for biodegradation: BT{sup TM} components were grown in R2A media and combined. Mother BT{sup TM} was centrifuged at 7000 rpm for 20 minutes and resuspended in Bushnell Haus. 33 g of tailings were added to 1100 mL Bushnell Haus along with yeast extract (11 g) to create a 3% tailing solution. Treatments were performed in triplicate. Preparing solutions for toxicity tests using C. dubia: Supernatant was collected immediately after centrifuging at 7000 rpm for 20 min. Supernatant was filtered via a 0.22 μm sterile system. All treatments except MFT, Y peaked at T=4. This decrease in microbial growth could be associated with toxicity from intermediate byproducts. Treatments containing only MFTs decreased in the initial 11 days before growing significantly. Final solution for MFT, Y treatment had the highest pH. This could potentially be due to increased microbial activity linked with yeast consumption. All treatments except MFT, Y peaked at T=4. This decrease in microbial growth could be associated with toxicity from intermediate byproducts. Treatments containing only MFTs decreased in the initial 11 days before growing significantly. Future Direction: Await results from Acute Toxicity Tests and Metal Bioavailability Quantification of biosurfactant production. Evaluate hydrocarbon degradation byproducts using an analytical chemistry approach. More toxicity experiments with variations in time and conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Stellar Activity F-statistic for Exoplanet Surveys (SAFE)

In the search for planets orbiting distant stars, the presence of stellar activity in the atmospheres of observed stars can obscure the radial velocity signal used to detect such planets. Furthermore, this stellar activity contamination is set by the star itself and cannot simply be avoided with better instrumentation. Various stellar activity indicators have been developed that may correlate with this contamination. We introduce a new stellar activity indicator called the Stellar Activity F-statistic for Exoplanet surveys (SAFE) that has higher statistical power (i.e., probability of detecting a true stellar activity signal) than many traditional stellar activity indicators in a simulation study of an active region on a Sun-like star with a moderate-to-high signal-to-noise ratio. Also through simulation, the SAFE is demonstrated to be associated with the projected area on the visible side of the star covered by active regions. We also demonstrate that the SAFE detects statistically significant stellar activity in most of the spectra for HD 22049, a star known to have high stellar variability. Additionally, the SAFE is calculated for recent observations of the three low-variability stars HD 34411, HD 10700, and HD 3651, the latter of which is known to have a planetary companion. As expected, the SAFE for these three only occasionally detects activity. Furthermore, initial exploration appears to indicate that the SAFE may be useful for disentangling stellar activity signals from planet-induced Doppler shifts.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Dynamics of heavy quarks in strongly coupled $\mathcal{N}$ = 4 SYM plasma

We calculate the probability distribution P(k) for a heavy quark with velocity v propagating through strongly coupled N = 4 SYM plasma in the ’t Hooft limit (N c → ∞, λ = g 2 N c → ∞) at a temperature T to acquire a momentum k due to interactions with the plasma. This distribution encodes the well-known drag coefficient η D and the transverse and longitudinal momentum diffusion coefficients κ T and κ L . The jet quenching parameter $\hat{q}$ can be extracted from P(k) for v = 1. Going beyond these known Gaussian characteristics of P(k), our calculation determines all of the higher order and mixed moments to leading order in 1/$\sqrt{λ}$ for the first time. These non-Gaussian features of P(k) include qualitatively novel correlations between longitudinal energy loss and transverse momentum broadening at nonzero v. We show that all higher moments scale characteristically with an effective temperature of the boosted plasma in the heavy quark rest frame, and we demonstrate that these non-Gaussian characteristics can be sizable in magnitude and even dominant in physically relevant situations. We use these results to derive a Kolmogorov equation for the evolution of the probability distribution for the total momentum of a heavy quark that propagates through strongly coupled plasma. This evolution equation accounts for all higher order correlations between transverse momentum broadening and longitudinal energy loss, which we have calculated from first principles. It reduces to a Fokker-Planck equation when truncated to only include the effects of η D , κ T and κ L . Remarkably, while heavy quarks do not reach kinetic equilibrium with the plasma if evolved with this Fokker-Planck equation, by showing that the Boltzmann distribution is a static solution of the all-order Kolmogorov equation that we have derived we demonstrate that heavy quarks do reach kinetic equilibrium if evolved with this equation. Our results thus provide a dynamically complete framework for understanding the thermalization of a heavy quark that may be initially far from equilibrium in the strongly coupled N = 4 SYM plasma — as well as new insight into heavy quark transport and equilibration in quark-gluon plasma.

Holography and Hydrodynamics↗

Impact of installation faults in air conditioners and heat pumps in single-family homes on U.S. energy usage

To ensure that new residential air conditioners and heat pumps operate optimally, care must be taken during the initial system design and installation to avoid missteps that immediately degrade a system’s performance. Laboratory and simulation studies have quantified the impact that faults can have on capacity and efficiency. Field studies have demonstrated that installation-related faults are commonplace. However, the national impact of installation-related faults cannot be accurately estimated by only simulating a limited number of homes at several fault levels because of the variety of home characteristics and climates involved. In our analysis, we use an improved residential building stock simulation tool to predict the annual energy increase and additional utility costs resulting from two common installation faults: indoor airflow rate and refrigerant charge level. Our method considers the wide range of building characteristics and climate zones of the U.S. housing stock. We use existing field data to develop fault intensity probability distributions to inform our analysis. The study shows that these two faults result in approximately 20.7 TWh/y of additional energy use for central air conditioners and air-source heat pumps in U.S. single-family detached homes, which is a 9% increase over baseline (no-fault) usage, costing homeowners approximately $2.5 billion annually on utility bills. Air-source heat pumps are responsible for a disproportionate fraction of this energy use increase because of the larger number of operating hours compared to central air conditioners and the sensitivity of heating mode performance to the faults analyzed compared to cooling mode.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

An updated estimate of the Mu2e experiment sensitivity

The Mu2e experiment at Fermilab will search for the conversion of a negative muon into an electron inside the field of a nucleus. This process does not conserve charged-lepton flavour and is heavily suppressed in the Standard Model (SM), with a branching ratio < 10-50. Any evidence of it would be an undeniable evidence of new physics beyond the SM. The project sets out to achieve a single event sensitivity of $\sim 3 × 10^{-17}$ on the ratio between the probability for a conversion of a negative muon into an electron and the one for a muon capture by the nucleus. Such a sensitivity would represent a 4 orders of magnitude improvement on the previous upper limit for the process, making possible to test predictions of different extensions of the SM. Mu2e uses three superconducting solenoids to produce and measure the muon conversions. In the first solenoid, the Production Solenoid, pions and kaons are produced, together with other secondary products, by 8 GeV kinetic energy proton interactions in a tungsten target. A gradient magnetic field is specifically designed to direct low momentum particles into the Transport Solenoid, an S-shaped magnet that filters out particles with unwanted charge and momentum. Muons, produced by pion and kaon decays, finally reach the aluminum Stopping Target in the Detector Solenoid, where they eventually stop and convert. The result of the conversion process is a monochromatic electron of ~105 MeV/c momentum. The Detector Solenoid also hosts the two main detectors: a straw tube tracker and two CsI calorimeter disks, both providing measurement of event kinematics. A germanium detector and a LaBr crystal are located downstream of the Detector Solenoid to measure the X and gamma rays produced by the muon captures in the Stopping Target. A veto system of scintillators covering the Detector Solenoid and half of the Transport Solenoid is used to identify and reject cosmic rays interactions. With respect to the initial project, the Mu2e running plan has evolved to a staged configuration with 2 years at reduced intensity before the 2025 accelerator shutdown for the neutrino beam upgrade and 2 or 3 years at full intensity after that. This, together with geometry changes and a better knowledge of detector performances obtained by the first slice tests, has required a full revision of the signal over background selection that is the subject of this thesis. In order to achieve a new estimate of Mu2e sensitivity, the simulation of the data corresponding to the first 2 years of data acquisition has been performed. This includes both conversion electrons (CE) and the main sources of background: cosmics, decay-in orbits (DIO), radiative pion captures (RPC) and antiprotons. The characteristics of the signal and of the main backgrounds have been studied to define the best selection variables for CE. A special effort has been devoted to the evaluation of the antiproton background. The lack of experimental data for antiproton production cross section makes the systematic uncertainty on this background significant. A new parameterization of the cross section has been developed to fit the existing data and to provide a more reliable estimate of the systematic uncertainty by comparing the results of the old and the new model. A special effort has been devoted to the optimization of the antiprotons Monte Carlo generator. This study has also revealed that the dominant component within this background is represented by antiprotons produced in the opposite direction with respect to the Transport Solenoid entrance and then redirected to it by back-scattering processes in the Production Target. This ultimately highlights the sensitivity of the background estimate to the G4 handling of antiproton interactions in the 1 to 3 GeV/c momentum range. Finally, the final experimental sensitivity has been studied. The momentum and time selection have been optimized to obtain the 5-sigma discovery reach or, in case of no signal, the upper limit on conversion probability. The results confirm that, in the firs t two years of data taking, Mu2e will be able to improve the current experimental sensitivity for muon-to-electron conversion in an atomic field by more than 3 order of magnitudes.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗