A simulation modeling approach to understanding the software development process
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Stone, A. H.↗
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A Three-Tier Incremental Approach for Development of Smart Corridor Digital Twins
Development of an arterial smart corridor digital twin requires the integration of real time data streams, data storage, and simulation model execution. This process may be complex, time consuming, and susceptible to errors. To aid in smart corridor digital twin development this paper seeks to provide a framework, best practices, and development guidance. As such, a three-tier incremental approach to smart corridor digital twin development is presented. The paper highlights practical issues in digital twin construction along with key data challenges based on experiences from the development of digital twins for two large Smart Corridor deployments, one in Chattanooga, Tennessee, and the other in Atlanta, Georgia. The presented three-tier incremental approach includes: 1) development of a prepopulated offline simulation, 2) development of a pseudo digital twin that is driven by archived data, and 3) integration of real time data streams to create the online digital twin model. The three-tiered approach facilitates conducting multiple trials and scenarios with increasing complexity, allowing for incremental error processing and updating of the digital twin.
Saroj, Abhilasha↗
Biogenic carbon capture at pulp mills via sodium spiking and oxy-fuel calcination
Over 13 million metric tons of biogenic carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) are mineralized yearly in United States (US) pulp mill recovery boilers as molten sodium carbonate. The mineralized CO 2 is released downstream in the rotary lime kiln where it can be captured at a relatively low cost for permanent sequestration. The use of biocarbon and bioenergy at pulp mills enables the possibility for atmospheric carbon removal when biogenic CO2 is captured and sequestered. We demonstrate the feasibility of capturing biogenic CO 2 via sodium spiking coupled with oxy-fuel calcination in the rotary lime kiln at existing kraft pulp mills. Sodium (Na) spiking elevates the Na ion loading in the kraft chemical looping process by replacing chlorine-based bleaching with a highly alkaline bleaching sequence. Chemical pulping processes are modeled and simulated to understand the technical limits of implementing sodium spiking in existing pulp mills. Each 1 % of sodium added to the bleaching operations increases the rate of CO 2 mineralization by 4 %, and the maximum increase in sodium content in the kraft process is 9 %. Without sodium spiking, estimated CO 2 capture costs are $131 and $107/mt CO 2 for air and oxy-fuel combustion, respectively. With the implementation of sodium spiking, the cost of CO 2 captured decreases by 27 % and 31 %, showing costs of $96 and $74/mt CO 2 for air and oxy-fuel combustion, respectively. Oxy-fuel combustion reduces the costs of CO 2 capture compared to air combustion, but merged deployment with sodium spiking seems to be the most cost-effective pathway to integrate carbon capture.
60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
The use of analytical models in human-computer interface design
Recently, a large number of human-computer interface (HCI) researchers have investigated building analytical models of the user, which are often implemented as computer models. These models simulate the cognitive processes and task knowledge of the user in ways that allow a researcher or designer to estimate various aspects of an interface's usability, such as when user errors are likely to occur. This information can lead to design improvements. Analytical models can supplement design guidelines by providing designers rigorous ways of analyzing the information-processing requirements of specific tasks (i.e., task analysis). These models offer the potential of improving early designs and replacing some of the early phases of usability testing, thus reducing the cost of interface design. This paper describes some of the many analytical models that are currently being developed and evaluates the usefulness of analytical models for human-computer interface design. This paper will focus on computational, analytical models, such as the GOMS model, rather than less formal, verbal models, because the more exact predictions and task descriptions of computational models may be useful to designers. The paper also discusses some of the practical requirements for using analytical models in complex design organizations such as NASA.
Gugerty, Leo↗
Effects of Meteoroid Erosion in Planetary Rings
This grant supported continuing studies of the effects of ballistic transport on the evolution of Saturn's rings. Ballistic transport, as used in this context, refers to the net transport of mass and angular momentum caused by the exchange of meteoroid impact ejecta between neighboring ring regions (Ip 1983, 1984, Morfill et al. 1983, Lissauer 1984, Durisen 1984a,b). The characteristic time scale associated with this process is the gross erosion time t(sub g) the time it would take a ring region to be completed eroded if all impact ejecta were lost. This time scale is estimated to be about 10(exp 5) to 10(exp 6) years for a ring region with normal optical depth tau approximately 1. Earlier work by myself and collaborators developed the physical theory and simulation techniques to model this process (Durisen et al. 1989, Cuzzi and Durisen 1990). Detailed simulations, supported in part by this grant, have demonstrated that ballistic transport can produce observed structures in Saturn's rings, especially at and near the inner edges of the A and B Rings (Durisen et al. 1992, 1996). The structures of interest in the real rings are illustrated in Figures 1 and 2. Most of these structures were previously unexplained. The computational results plus analytic treatments place useful constraints on fundamental ring properties, including the indication of a relatively young ring age less than or equal 10(exp 8) years (see reviews by Nicholson and Dones 1991, Esposito 1993, Cuzzi 1995, and Porco 1995). This grant also supported development of the faster computational algorithms necessary to permit longer evolutions. Resulting simplications in the ballistic transport equations permitted an analytic linear stability analysis (Durisen 1995), which has provided considerable insight into ballistic transport processes and applications to Saturn's rings. All these accomplishments are described in more detail below.
Durisen, Richard H.↗
Improvement of aerosol activation/ice nucleation in a source-oriented WRF-Chem model to study a winter Storm in California
The source-oriented Weather Research and Forecasting chemistry (SOWC) model is modified to improve mixed-phase cloud parameterization by including aerosol aging processes (external mixture) in cloud activation/nucleation. The improved SOWC model is applied to investigate how aerosol mixing state influences cloud and ice formation and atmospheric optical properties during a winter storm. SOWC tracks 6-dimensional chemical variables (X, Z, Y, Size Bins, Source Types, Species) through an explicit simulation of atmospheric chemistry and physics. A new module is implemented into the enhanced SOWC model to simulate microphysics processes with all source-oriented hydrometeors (cloud, ice, rain, snow and graupel) by using the modified Morrison two-moment microphysics scheme. In this study, all aerosol source types can activate to form cloud droplets based on the Köhler theory, but the dust source type is the only source of ice nuclei (IN). Here, the Goddard shortwave and longwave radiation schemes are modified to use a new geometric optics method to estimate cloud optical properties by considering the chemistry components and the physical shape of each hydrometeor.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Anthropogenic extremely low volatility organics (ELVOCs) Govern the Growth of Molecular Clusters over the Southern Great Plains during the Springtime
New particle formation (NPF) and growth govern cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations in many regions. The mechanisms governing the nucleation of molecular clusters vary substantially in different regions of the atmosphere. Additionally, the growth of these clusters from ~2 to 20 nm sizes is often governed by the availability of extremely low volatility organic vapours (ELVOCs). While the pathways to ELVOC formation from the oxidation of biogenic monoterpenes with ozone is better understood, the chemical and mechanistic pathways for ELVOC formation from oxidation of anthropogenic organics are not well understood. We integrate measurements and three-dimensional regional model simulations with the Weather Research and Forecasting Model coupled to chemistry (WRF-Chem) to understand the processes governing new particle formation and growth and secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formation during the Holistic Interactions of Shallow Clouds, Aerosols and Land Ecosystems (HI-SCALE) field campaign at the Southern Great Plains (SGP) observatory in Oklahoma, and contrast it with a site within the Bankhead National Forest (BNF), Alabama in Southeast USA, where 5-year long measurements will begin in 2024. Simulations show that nucleation rates are at least an order of magnitude higher at SGP compared to BNF during the springtime days (April 28 and May 14, 2016), largely due to lower H2SO4 concentrations at BNF, which are needed for nucleation. In addition, the larger CS at BNF (compared to SGP) increase the loss of molecular clusters by coagulation to pre-existing particles. Among the 8 different nucleation mechanisms in WRF-Chem, we find that the amine+H2SO4 nucleation mechanism dominates at the SGP site, while the pure organic ion induced nucleation mechanism dominates over BNF. Through various WRF-Chem sensitivity simulations, we find that anthropogenic ELVOCs are critical for explaining the growth of newly formed particles and the resulting number size distribution observed near the surface at the SGP site during the daytime. In addition, we show that treating organic particles as semisolid, with strong diffusion-limited uptake of organic vapours, brings model predictions into closer agreement with the observed evolution of particle size distribution. Simulations also predict that anthropogenic SOA, formed by the oxidation of aromatic volatile organic compounds (VOCs), is the dominant organic aerosol component at SGP, while biogenic SOA dominates particle composition at the BNF site in Southeast USA on these days.
Shrivastava, ManishKumar B.↗
Quantum signal processing for simulating cold plasma waves
Numerical modeling of radio-frequency waves in plasma with sufficiently high spatial and temporal resolution remains challenging even with modern computers. However, such simulations can be sped up using quantum computers in the future. In this work, we propose how to do such modeling for cold plasma waves, in particular, for an X wave propagating in an inhomogeneous one-dimensional plasma. The wave system is represented in the form of a vector Schrödinger equation with a Hermitian Hamiltonian. Block encoding is used to represent the Hamiltonian through unitary operations that can be implemented on a quantum computer. To perform the modeling, we apply the so-called quantum signal processing algorithm and construct the corresponding circuit. Quantum simulations with this circuit are emulated on a classical computer, and the results show agreement with traditional classical calculations. We also discuss how our quantum circuit scales with the resolution.
70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
Life support systems analysis and technical trades for a lunar outpost
The NASA/JPL life support systems analysis (LISSA) software tool was used to perform life support system analysis and technology trades for a Lunar Outpost. The life support system was modeled using a chemical process simulation program on a steady-state, one-person, daily basis. Inputs to the LiSSA model include metabolic balance load data, hygiene load data, technology selection, process operational assumptions and mission parameter assumptions. A baseline set of technologies has been used against which comparisons have been made by running twenty-two cases with technology substitutions. System, subsystem, and technology weights and powers are compared for a crew of 4 and missions of 90 and 600 days. By assigning a weight value to power, equivalent system weights are compared. Several less-developed technologies show potential advantages over the baseline. Solid waste treatment technologies show weight and power disadvantages but one could have benefits associated with the reduction of hazardous wastes and very long missions. Technology development towards reducing the weight of resupplies and lighter materials of construction was recommended. It was also recommended that as technologies are funded for development, contractors should be required to generate and report data useful for quantitative technology comparisons.
Ferrall, J. F.↗
Winter wheat: A model for the simulation of growth and yield in winter wheat
The basic ideas and constructs for a general physical/physiological process level winter wheat simulation model are documented. It is a materials balance model which calculates daily increments of photosynthate production and respiratory losses in the crop canopy. The partitioning of the resulting dry matter to the active growing tissues in the plant each day, transpiration and the uptake of nitrogen from the soil profile are simulated. It incorporates the RHIZOS model which simulates, in two dimensions, the movement of water, roots, and soluble nutrients through the soil profile. It records the time of initiation of each of the plant organs. These phenological events are calculated from temperature functions with delays resulting from physiological stress. Stress is defined mathematically as an imbalance in the metabolite supply; demand ratio. Physiological stress is also the basis for the calculation of rates of tiller and floret abortion. Thus, tillering and head differentiation are modeled as the resulants of the two processes, morphogenesis and abortion, which may be occurring simulaneously.
Baker, D. N.↗
Emergent facilitation and glassy dynamics in supercooled liquids
In supercooled liquids, dynamical facilitation refers to a phenomenon where microscopic motion begets further motion nearby, resulting in spatially heterogeneous dynamics. This is central to the glassy relaxation dynamics of such liquids, which show super-Arrhenius growth of relaxation timescales with decreasing temperature. Despite the importance of dynamical facilitation, there is no theoretical understanding of how facilitation emerges and impacts relaxation dynamics. Here, we present a theory that explains the microscopic origins of dynamical facilitation. We show that dynamics proceeds by localized bond-exchange events, also known as excitations, resulting in the accumulation of elastic stresses with which new excitations can interact. At low temperatures, these elastic interactions dominate and facilitate the creation of new excitations near prior excitations. Using the theory of linear elasticity and Markov processes, we simulate a model, which reproduces multiple aspects of glassy dynamics observed in experiments and molecular simulations, including the stretched exponential decay of relaxation functions, the super-Arrhenius behavior of relaxation timescales as well as their two-dimensional finite-size effects. The model also predicts the subdiffusive behavior of the mean squared displacement (MSD) on short, intermediate timescales. Furthermore, we derive the phonon contributions to diffusion and relaxation, which when combined with the excitation contributions produce the two-step relaxation processes, and the ballistic–subdiffusive–diffusive crossover MSD behaviors commonly found in supercooled liquids.
37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
Java Architecture for Detect and Avoid Extensibility and Modeling
Unmanned aircraft will equip with a detect-and-avoid (DAA) system that enables them to comply with the requirement to "see and avoid" other aircraft, an important layer in the overall set of procedural, strategic and tactical separation methods designed to prevent mid-air collisions. This paper describes a capability called Java Architecture for Detect and Avoid Extensibility and Modeling (JADEM), developed to prototype and help evaluate various DAA technological requirements by providing a flexible and extensible software platform that models all major detect-and-avoid functions. Figure 1 illustrates JADEM's architecture. The surveillance module can be actual equipment on the unmanned aircraft or simulators that model the process by which sensors on-board detect other aircraft and provide track data to the traffic display. The track evaluation function evaluates each detected aircraft and decides whether to provide an alert to the pilot and its severity. Guidance is a combination of intruder track information, alerting, and avoidance/advisory algorithms behind the tools shown on the traffic display to aid the pilot in determining a maneuver to avoid a loss of well clear. All these functions are designed with a common interface and configurable implementation, which is critical in exploring DAA requirements. To date, JADEM has been utilized in three computer simulations of the National Airspace System, three pilot-in-the-loop experiments using a total of 37 professional UAS pilots, and two flight tests using NASA's Predator-B unmanned aircraft, named Ikhana. The data collected has directly informed the quantitative separation standard for "well clear", safety case, requirements development, and the operational environment for the DAA minimum operational performance standards. This work was performed by the Separation Assurance/Sense and Avoid Interoperability team under NASA's UAS Integration in the NAS project.
unmanned aircraft systems↗
An analysis of approach navigation accuracy and guidance requirements for the grand tour mission to the outer planets
The navigation and guidance process for the Jupiter, Saturn and Uranus planetary encounter phases of the 1977 Grand Tour interior mission was simulated. Reference approach navigation accuracies were defined and the relative information content of the various observation types were evaluated. Reference encounter guidance requirements were defined, sensitivities to assumed simulation model parameters were determined and the adequacy of the linear estimation theory was assessed. A linear sequential estimator was used to provide an estimate of the augmented state vector, consisting of the six state variables of position and velocity plus the three components of a planet position bias. The guidance process was simulated using a nonspherical model of the execution errors. Computation algorithms which simulate the navigation and guidance process were derived from theory and implemented into two research-oriented computer programs, written in FORTRAN.
Jones, D. W.↗
Process intensification approach to enhancing heat and mass transfer: Radio frequency (RF) assisted drying of paper and board
Conventional multi-cylinder drying of paper and board typically relies on both conductive drying from steam-heated cylinders and convective drying, where heated air flows over the paper web surface. Conduction primarily contributes to heat transfer, while convection is the main driver of mass transfer. However, conventional drying systems are heavily dependent on steam, usually powered by fossil fuels, and are often energy-inefficient with high levels of waste. Additionally, these surface-driven processes result in a lower percentage of energy absorption compared to the energy supplied, leading to significant energy losses. To improve this long-standing process, an experimental system was developed to investigate a process intensification approach involving the integration of Radio Frequency (RF) heating, a volumetric electromagnetic technology, alongside traditional conduction and convection drying methods. This study also emphasizes the use of sensors to continuously monitor key parameters such as moisture content, supply system temperatures, sample temperatures, air flows, and drying rates in real-time. The effect of RF as an auxiliary energy source in localized environments at varying moisture levels was explored to optimize industrial drying systems, quantify potential improvements, and provide insights for future studies. Experimental results from trials combining RF with convection and with the base case alternating conduction-convection drying processes are presented. It is shown that RF is a viable process intensification approach for paper drying improving the drying rate and energy intensity at higher moisture contents. These findings offer valuable insights for process intensification and contribute to the process development, modeling, and simulation of advanced paper drying techniques.
42 ENGINEERING↗
Simulated Radar Characteristics of LBA Convective Systems: Easterly and Westerly Regimes
The 3D Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model was used to simulate convection that occurred during the TRMM LBA field experiment in Brazil. Convection in this region can be categorized into two different regimes. Low-level easterly flow results in moderate to high CAPE and a drier environment. Convection is more intense like that seen over continents. Low-level westerly flow results in low CAPE and a moist environment. Convection is weaker and more widespread characteristic of oceanic or monsoon-like systems. The GCE model has been used to study both regimes n order to provide cloud datasets that are representative of both environments in support of TRMM rainfall and heating algorithm development. Two different cases are analyzed: Jan 26, 1999, an eastely regime case, and Feb 23, 1999, a westerly regime case. The Jan 26 case is an organized squall line, while the Feb 23 case is less organized with only transient lines. Radar signatures, including CFADs, from the two simulated cases are compared to each other and with observations. The microphysical processes simulated in the model are also compared between the two cases.
Lang, Stephen E.↗
Sensitivity of the MAR Regional Climate Model Snowpack to the Parameterization of the Assimilation of Satellite-Derived Wet-Snow Masks on the Antarctic Peninsula
Both regional climate models (RCMs) and remote sensing (RS) data are essential tools in understanding the response of polar regions to climate change. RCMs can simulate how certain climate variables, such as surface melt, runoff and snowfall, are likely to change in response to different climate scenarios but are subject to biases and errors. RS data can assist in reducing and quantifying model uncertainties by providing indirect observations of the modeled variables on the present climate. In this work, we improve on an existing scheme to assimilate RS wet snow occurrence data with the “Modèle Atmosphérique Régional” (MAR) RCM and investigate the sensitivity of the RCM to the parameters of the scheme. The assimilation is performed by nudging the MAR snowpack temperature to match the presence of liquid water observed by satellites. The sensitivity of the assimilation method is tested by modifying parameters such as the depth to which the MAR snowpack is warmed or cooled, the quantity of water required to qualify a MAR pixel as “wet” (0.1 % or 0.2 % of the snowpack mass being water), and assimilating different RS datasets. Data assimilation is carried out on the Antarctic Peninsula for the 2019–2021 period. The results show an increase in meltwater production (+66.7 % on average, or +95 Gt), along with a small decrease in surface mass balance (SMB) (−4.5 % on average, or −20 Gt) for the 2019–2020 melt season after assimilation. The model is sensitive to the tested parameters, albeit with varying orders of magnitude. The prescribed warming depth has a larger impact on the resulting surface melt production than the liquid water content (LWC) threshold due to strong refreezing occurring within the top layers of the snowpack. The values tested for the LWC threshold are lower than the LWC for typical melt days (approximately 1.2 %) and impact results mainly at the beginning and end of the melting period. The assimilation method will allow for the estimation of uncertainty in MAR meltwater production and will enable the identification of potential issues in modeling near-surface snowpack processes, paving the way for more accurate simulations of snow processes in model projections.
regional climate models↗
Contaminant Transport Modeling for Technology Evaluation and Long-Term Monitoring in the Tims Branch Testbed, SC - 20343
Studies conducted at U.S. DOE sites have shown the presence of heavy metals, radionuclides, and volatile organic compounds in surface water, groundwater, and soil as a result of nuclear activity in the Cold War era. Since the 1990's, innovative cleanup methods have been implemented in the Tims Branch watershed at Savannah River Site (SRS) to limit the contaminant flux to the stream that have reduced the contaminant concentrations to acceptable regulatory levels in the dissolved phase. A tin-based treatment which effectively eliminated all local anthropogenic mercury inputs to this ecosystem resulted in a known step function addition of inert tin oxide particles which now serve as a potential tracer for sedimentation and particle transport processes in the stream. The long-term effectiveness of this and other remediation techniques and the potential for remobilization of adsorbed contaminant in sediment during extreme hydrologic conditions however remains unclear. It is therefore important to understand not only the fate and transport of dissolved contaminants, but also the movement of sediment and the relevant interactions with dissolved contaminant. To narrow this knowledge gap, a study is being conducted using the Tims Branch watershed as a stream-scale ecosystem test-bed to identify the primary transport processes of major contaminants of concern (such as mercury, nickel and uranium) with an emphasis on interactions with sediment transport. This involves the development of a fully distributed hydrologic watershed model of the Tims Branch watershed to predict streamflow under extreme weather conditions, as well as the development of a comprehensive contaminant transport model that can properly account for coupled contaminant and sediment transport. Review of relevant research reports and peer-reviewed journals revealed that aside from advection-dispersion transport of dissolved contaminants, adsorption and desorption with suspended solids and bed sediment also play an important role in the transport of those contaminants of concern. To develop the fully distributed hydrologic watershed model, the MIKE SHE 2-dimensional (2D) land surface/3D groundwater model that simulates surface/subsurface hydrologic processes (such as overland flow, evapotranspiration, and infiltration) was coupled with a 1D streamflow model that accounts for stream water hydraulics (such as hydraulic structures, cross-sections, and network). To model contaminant transport, the MIKE 11 streamflow component was coupled with the MIKE 11 AD module that simulates solute transport through advection and dispersion, and MIKE ECO Lab module that accounts for both sediment transport and interactions with dissolved contaminant. At this stage, the development and optimization of the fully distributed hydrologic model has been completed, achieving satisfactory statistical results between observed and predicted discharge as indicated by a root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.039 cms and a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NSE) of 0.764. The ongoing development of the contaminant transport model has also yielded realistic results from preliminary tests. Results from this study are a key to evaluating the effectiveness of tin (II)-based mercury treatment of wetlands at the SRS site, and are also relevant to evaluating the potential of using this type of novel remediation technology in other mercury-contaminated stream systems. Knowledge acquired from this research will also support interpretation of historical data on the trends of contaminant concentration distribution in Tims Branch, particularly considering the effect of extreme hydrological events on the stream flow and pollutant transport. (authors)
12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
Coal conversion systems design and process modeling. Volume 1: Application of MPPR and Aspen computer models
The development of a coal gasification system design and mass and energy balance simulation program for the TVA and other similar facilities is described. The materials-process-product model (MPPM) and the advanced system for process engineering (ASPEN) computer program were selected from available steady state and dynamic models. The MPPM was selected to serve as the basis for development of system level design model structure because it provided the capability for process block material and energy balance and high-level systems sizing and costing. The ASPEN simulation serves as the basis for assessing detailed component models for the system design modeling program. The ASPEN components were analyzed to identify particular process blocks and data packages (physical properties) which could be extracted and used in the system design modeling program. While ASPEN physical properties calculation routines are capable of generating physical properties required for process simulation, not all required physical property data are available, and must be user-entered.
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