Results for “reflection data” — Page 15

DOE OSTI2021

Spatially-resolved measurements of spin valley polarization in MOCVD-grown monolayer WSe 2

Time-resolved Kerr rotation microscopy is used to generate and measure spin valley polarization in MOCVD-grown monolayer tungsten diselenide (WSe 2 ). The Kerr signal reveals bi-exponential decay with time constants of 100 ps and 3 ns. Measurements are performed on several triangular flakes from the same growth cycle and reveal larger spin valley polarization near the edges of the flakes. This spatial dependence is observed across multiple WSe 2 flakes in the Kerr rotation measurements but not in the spatially resolved reflectivity or microphotoluminescence data. Time-resolved pump-probe overlap measurements further reveal that the Kerr signal’s spatial dependence is not due to spin diffusion on the nanosecond timescale.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Spatiotemporal-Aware Weighting Scheme for Improving Climate Model Ensemble Predictions

Multimodel ensembling has been widely used to improve climate model predictions, and the improvement strongly depends on the ensembling scheme. In this work, we propose a Bayesian neural network (BNN) ensembling method, which combines climate models within a Bayesian model averaging framework, to improve the predictive capability of model ensembles. Our proposed BNN approach calculates spatiotemporally varying model weights and biases by leveraging individual models' simulation skill, calibrates the ensemble prediction against observations by considering observation data uncertainty, and quantifies epistemic uncertainty when extrapolating to new conditions. More importantly, the BNN method provides interpretability about which climate model contributes more to the ensemble prediction at which locations and times. Thus, beyond its predictive capability, the method also brings insights and understanding of the models to guide further model and data development. In this study, we design experiments using an ensemble of CMIP6 climate model simulations to illustrate the BNN ensembling method's capability with respect to prediction accuracy, interpretability, and uncertainty quantification (UQ). We demonstrate that BNN can correctly assign larger weights to the regions and seasons where the individual model fits the observation better. Moreover, its offered interpretability is consistent with our understanding of localized climate model performance. Additionally, BNN shows an increasing uncertainty when the prediction is farther away from the period with constrained data, which appropriately reflects our trustworthiness of the models in the changing climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

Graphite Characterization: Baseline Variability Analysis Report

The Idaho National INL’s Baseline Material Property program provides many measurements of different material properties on a variety of nuclear graphite grades being investigated for irradiation-induced changes in material properties. The baseline material properties provide an unirradiated reference for comparison with measurements of those properties after irradiation. This study describes how uncertainty, or variance, in estimates of important material properties, like compressive strength, may depend on sample size, sample distribution and parameter estimation methods. Compressive strength data from two large collections of specimens from a billet of PCEA graphite (sample size = 230) and a billet of IG-110 graphite (sample size = 48) are used to illustrate these dependencies. The grades of graphite used represent approximate end members in terms of relative variability in strength measurements. Monte Carlo simulation and bootstrapping methods were used to examine variance in Weibull-parameter estimates as a function of sample size. Results were consistent with what previous statistical analyses have shown about the relationship between sample size and width of the confidence interval for maximum likelihood (ML) estimated parameters when samples are repeatedly drawn from a Weibull distribution. As a function of sample size, the precision of the modulus estimate increases faster than that of the characteristic strength. The modulus maximum likelihood estimates (MLEs) are biased for low sample sizes. The American Society for Testing and Materials document ASTM D7846-16 provides equations that describe the dependence of the variance of parameter MLEs on sample size. Using the same methodology, we show that the polynomials provided for variance dependence on sample size are inaccurate for sample sizes greater than ~120. We provide approximations to that relationship that illustrate relative constancy for sample size > ~10, in the logspace relationship of the modulus variance and the log transformed characteristic strength variance. Bootstrapping provided a means of comparing Weibull parameters obtained using ASME’s guidance for specimen collection to those obtained using different weighting in a case where strength is related to position in a billet and to grain orientation and a single distribution is used to characterize the billet. ASME specifies that samples be collected with equal representation in all locations and grain orientations. Parameter values obtained using ASME’s method were different from those obtained using random sampling of the complete data sets, and this was particularly true for the PCEA data. In addition, while the ASME approach yielded more conservative parameters for the PCEA data, the opposite was true for the IG-110 data. The difference observed for the PCEA data set likely reflects the larger number of against-grain specimens collected, which had generally higher strength than the with-grain specimens. This emphasizes the importance of the dependence of strength on location or grain orientation and suggests that it may be prudent to weight specimen collection toward the weaker subgroups if a conservative estimate as desired, as the equal weighting method recommended by ASME would will not always provide the most conservative Weibull parameters. Because spatial correlations commonly exist in certain grades of graphite, future work may involve developing a methodology for parameter inference that relaxes the assumption of independent specimens. ASTM and ASME codes recommend different parameter estimation methods and models of the Weibull distribution in different situations. Descriptions of the effects on parameter estimates for the example billets used in this study provide an example of how the method may affect the parameter estimate, and how—in this case—that compares to differences due to other factors, such as sample size and dependence on grain orientation or sample location.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Gamma Spectrometry Examination of the AGR-3/4 Irradiation

The results from gamma spectrometry examination of the different components from the combined third and fourth U.S. Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR) TRISO-coated particle fuel irradiation tests (AGR-3/4) have been analyzed. This experiment was designed to provide information about in-pile fission product migration. In each of the 12 capsules, a single stack of four compacts with designed-to-fail (DTF) particles surrounded by inner and outer graphite and/or graphitic matrix rings and a graphite sink ring were irradiated in the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) at Idaho National Laboratory (INL). Gamma spectrometry has been used to evaluate the gamma-emitting fission product inventory of compacts from the irradiation and evaluate the burnup of these compacts based on the activity of the radioactive cesium isotopes (i.e., Cs-134 and Cs-137) in the compacts. Burnup from gamma spectrometry compares well with predicted burnup from simulations. The inner and outer rings were also examined by gamma spectrometry to evaluate the total fission product inventory of the rings, and gamma emission computed tomography (GECT) was used to investigate the spatial distribution of gamma-emitting fission products within the rings. This report focuses on results obtained via the Precision Gamma Scanner (PGS) for the compacts and inner and outer rings. These non-destructive gamma measurements are currently being compared to recent destructive measurements of spatial fission product distributions in the rings and to predictions made via mathematical modeling. A separate report discusses the entire AGR-3/4 fission product mass balance for all irradiation capsule components including the inner and outer rings, graphite sink rings, capsule spacers, capsule foils, through tubes, and felts. This report is similar to the conference proceedings: Harp, J.M., Demkowicz, P.A., and Stempien, J.D., “Initial gamma spectrometry examination of the AGR-3/4 irradiation,” International Topical Meeting High Temperature Reactor Technology (HTR 2016), Las Vegas, NV, USA, November 2016, Paper HTR2016-18593, but it has been updated to reflect all the data that has been collected on AGR-3/4 using PGS. The Appendices contain extensive data from the collected gamma spectra.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Acoustic Impedance Inversions for Offshore CO 2 Storage: South Georgia Embayment, United States

This study builds and expands on previous CO 2 storage resource assessment studies of the southeastern offshore Atlantic margin by providing a detailed evaluation on how rock porosities and permeabilities are distributed across the Upper Cretaceous strata restricted to the South Georgia Embayment (SGE). Using legacy industry two-dimensional seismic reflection and well data, this assessment is the first application of multiple seismic inversion techniques in this area. This workflow provides a reliable and repeatable model-based inversion which gives an improved image to discriminate lithology and predict porosity. The workflow is applicable to future CO 2 storage resource assessment studies elsewhere. The inversion results indicate that distinct porosity and permeability regimes are present and distributed in the Upper Cretaceous strata within the SGE. The impedance and porosity relationships show well-founded and reliable correlation. These relationships reveal low impedance coincident to the high porosity intervals which are proposed as potential reservoir intervals for CO 2 storage. In addition, the result shows that the Upper Cretaceous strata have two main potential reservoirs in the lower part. These are overlain by a thick impermeable interval, mostly shale, which has high impedance, low porosity, and low permeability and extends within the SGE. This result is in agreement with a previous study that also proposed two significant storage reservoirs for CO 2 in the Upper Cretaceous strata. Since porosity distribution is estimated using multiple methods, it follows the trends of seismic signature and structures of the Upper Cretaceous strata. The extracted values of porosity, ranging from 15 to 36%, and permeability, ranging from 1 to 100 mD, are close to the measured values from the well core data at the Upper Cretaceous strata interval.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Advancing Industry 4.0: Multimodal Sensor Fusion for AI-Based Fault Detection in 3D Printing

Additive manufacturing, particularly fused deposition modeling, is transforming modern production by enabling rapid prototyping and complex part fabrication. However, its layer-by-layer process remains vulnerable to faults such as nozzle clogging, filament runout, and layer misalignment, which compromise print quality and reliability. Traditional inspection methods are costly, time-intensive, and often limited to post-process analysis, making them unsuitable for real-time intervention. In this current study, the authors developed a novel, low-cost, and portable faultdetection system that leverages multimodal sensor fusion and artificial intelligence for real-time monitoring in FDM-based 3D printing. The system integrates acoustic, vibration, and thermal sensing into a non-intrusive architecture, capturing complementary data streams that reflect both mechanical and process-related anomalies. Acoustic and thermal sensors operate in a fully contactless manner, while the vibration sensor requires minimal attachment such that it will not interfere with printer hardware, thereby preserving portability and ease of deployment. The multimodal signals are processed into spectrograms and time-frequency features, which are classified using convolutional neural networks for intelligent fault detection. The proposed system advances Industry 4.0 objectives by offering an affordable, scalable, and practical monitoring solution that improves faultdetection accuracy, reduces waste, and supports sustainable, adaptive manufacturing.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2018

Tropical continental downdraft characteristics: mesoscale systems versus unorganized convection

Downdrafts and cold pool characteristics for strong mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) and isolated, unorganized deep precipitating convection are analyzed using multi-instrument data from the DOE Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) GoAmazon2014/5 campaign. Increases in column water vapor (CWV) are observed leading convection, with higher CWV preceding MCSs than for isolated cells. For both MCSs and isolated cells, increases in wind speed, decreases in surface moisture and temperature, and increases in relative humidity occur coincidentally with system passages. Composites of vertical velocity data and radar reflectivity from a radar wind profiler show that the downdrafts associated with the sharpest decreases in surface equivalent potential temperature ( θ e ) have a probability of occurrence that increases with decreasing height below the freezing level. Both MCSs and unorganized convection show similar mean downdraft magnitudes and probabilities with height. Mixing computations suggest that, on average, air originating at heights greater than 3 km must undergo substantial mixing, particularly in the case of isolated cells, to match the observed cold pool θ e , implying a low typical origin level. Precipitation conditionally averaged on decreases in surface equivalent potential temperature (Δ θ e ) exhibits a strong relationship because the most negative Δ θ e values are associated with a high probability of precipitation. The more physically motivated conditional average of Δ θ e on precipitation shows that decreases in θ e level off with increasing precipitation rate, bounded by the maximum difference between surface θ e and its minimum in the profile aloft. In conclusion, robustness of these statistics observed across scales and regions suggests their potential use as model diagnostic tools for the improvement of downdraft parameterizations in climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2019

Coherent order parameter dynamics in SmTe 3

We present a combined ultrafast optical pump-probe and ultrafast x-ray diffraction measurement of the CDW dynamics in SmTe$_3$ at 300 K. The ultrafast x-ray diffraction measurements, taken at the Linac Coherent Light Source reveal a $\sim 1.55$ THz mode that becomes overdamped with increasing fluence. We identify this oscillation with the lattice component of the amplitude mode. Furthermore, these data allow for a more clear identification of the frequencies present in the optical pump-probe data. In both, reflectivity and diffraction, we observe a crossover of the response from linear (for small displacements) to quadratic in the amplitude of the order parameter displacement. Finally, a time-dependent Ginzburg-Landau model captures the essential features of the experimental observations.

Trigo, Mariano↗

DOE OSTI2020

Gamma Spectrometry Examination of the AGR-3/4 Irradiation

The results from gamma spectrometry examination of the different components from the combined third and fourth U.S. Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR) TRISO-coated particle fuel irradiation tests (AGR-3/4) have been analyzed. This experiment was designed to provide information about in-pile fission product migration. In each of the 12 capsules, a single stack of four compacts with designed-to-fail (DTF) particles surrounded by inner and outer graphite and/or graphitic matrix rings and a graphite sink ring were irradiated in the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) at Idaho National Laboratory (INL). Gamma spectrometry has been used to evaluate the gamma-emitting fission product inventory of compacts from the irradiation and evaluate the burnup of these compacts based on the activity of the radioactive cesium isotopes (i.e., Cs-134 and Cs-137) in the compacts. Burnup from gamma spectrometry compares well with predicted burnup from simulations. The inner and outer rings were also examined by gamma spectrometry to evaluate the total fission product inventory of the rings, and gamma emission computed tomography (GECT) was used to investigate the spatial distribution of gamma-emitting fission products within the rings. This report focuses on results obtained via the Precision Gamma Scanner (PGS) for the compacts and inner and outer rings. These non-destructive gamma measurements are currently being compared to recent destructive measurements of spatial fission product distributions in the rings and to predictions made via mathematical modeling. A separate report discusses the entire AGR-3/4 fission product mass balance for all irradiation capsule components including the inner and outer rings, graphite sink rings, capsule spacers, capsule foils, through tubes, and felts. This report is similar to the conference proceedings: Harp, J.M., Demkowicz, P.A., and Stempien, J.D., “Initial gamma spectrometry examination of the AGR-3/4 irradiation,” International Topical Meeting High Temperature Reactor Technology (HTR 2016), Las Vegas, NV, USA, November 2016, Paper HTR2016-18593, but it has been updated to reflect all the data that has been collected on AGR-3/4 using PGS. The Appendices contain extensive data from the collected gamma spectra.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2018

Specific Recognition of Arginine Methylated Histone Tails by JMJD5 and JMJD7

We have reported that JMJD5 and JMJD7 (JMJD5/7) are responsible for the clipping of arginine methylated histone tails to generate "tailless nucleosomes", which could release the pausing RNA polymerase II (Pol II) into productive transcription elongation. JMJD5/7 function as endopeptidases that cleave histone tails specifically adjacent to methylated arginine residues and continue to degrade N-terminal residues of histones via their aminopeptidase activity. Here, we report structural and biochemical studies on JMJD5/7 to understand the basis of substrate recognition and catalysis mechanism by this JmjC subfamily. Recognition between these enzymes and histone substrates is specific, which is reflected by the binding data between enzymes and substrates. High structural similarity between JMJD5 and JMJD7 is reflected by the shared common substrates and high binding affinity. However, JMJD5 does not bind to arginine methylated histone tails with additional lysine acetylation while JMJD7 does not bind to arginine methylated histone tails with additional lysine methylation. Furthermore, the complex structures of JMJD5 and arginine derivatives revealed a Tudor domain-like binding pocket to accommodate the methylated sidechain of arginine, but not lysine. There also exists a glutamine close to the catalytic center, which may suggest a unique imidic acid mediated catalytic mechanism for proteolysis by JMJD5/7.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

ENDF/B-VIII.0 Augmented Covariance Data The first iteration [Slides]

Nuclear data are necessary for reliable modeling and simulation of the next generation of nuclear reactors. However, the variation in the ratio of the computed to experimental values (C/E) for certain types of nuclear systems is much less than predicted by evaluated nuclear data file (ENDF)/B covariances. Figure 1 provides an example of a set of metal-plutonium-fueled, fast-spectrum (PU-MET-FAST) integral experiments from the International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project (ICSBEP) in the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) VALID database. The variation in the C/E values, shown with one standard deviation error bars, is 100% covered by both the SCALE and ENDB/VIII.0 covariance data. This is due to the comparisons to integral data that are essential during the evaluation process. However, the ENDF evaluations represent uncertainties and correlations in differential data only; they do not reflect the impact of the comparison to integral data in the covariance evaluations.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2019

ENDF/B-VIII.0 Augmented Covariance Data The first iteration [Slides]

Nuclear data are necessary for reliable modeling and simulation of the next generation of nuclear reactors. However, the variation in the ratio of the computed to experimental values (C/E) for certain types of nuclear systems is much less than predicted by evaluated nuclear data file (ENDF)/B covariances. Figure 1 provides an example of a set of metal-plutonium-fueled, fast-spectrum (PU-MET-FAST) integral experiments from the International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project (ICSBEP) in the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) VALID database. The variation in the C/E values, shown with one standard deviation error bars, is 100% covered by both the SCALE and ENDB/VIII.0 covariance data. This is due to the comparisons to integral data that are essential during the evaluation process. However, the ENDF evaluations represent uncertainties and correlations in differential data only; they do not reflect the impact of the comparison to integral data in the covariance evaluations.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2019

ENDF/B-VIII.0 Augmented Covariance Data: The first iteration

Nuclear data are necessary for reliable modeling and simulation of the next generation of nuclear reactors. However, the variation in the ratio of the computed to experimental values (C/E) for certain types of nuclear systems is much less than predicted by evaluated nuclear data file (ENDF)/B covariances. Figure 1 provides an example of a set of metal-plutonium-fueled, fast-spectrum (PU-MET-FAST) integral experiments from the International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project (ICSBEP) in the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) VALID database. The variation in the C/E values, shown with one standard deviation error bars, is 100% covered by both the SCALE and ENDB/VIII.0 covariance data. This is due to the comparisons to integral data that are essential during the evaluation process. However, the ENDF evaluations represent uncertainties and correlations in differential data only; they do not reflect the impact of the comparison to integral data in the covariance evaluations.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

A New Approach to Predict Hydrogeological Parameters Using Shear Waves from the Multichannel Analysis of Surface Waves Method

For near-surface contaminant characterization, the accurate prediction of hydrogeological parameters in anisotropic and heterogeneous environments has been a challenge since the last decades. However, recent advances in near-surface geophysics have facilitated the use of geophysical data for hydrogeological characterization in the last few years. A pseudo 3-D high resolution P-wave shallow seismic reflection survey was performed at the P Reactor Area, Savannah River Site, South Carolina in order to delineate and predict migration pathways of a large contaminant plume including trichloroethylene. This contaminant plume originates from the northwest section of the reactor facility that is located within the Upper Atlantic Coastal Plain. The data were collected with 40 Hz geophones, an accelerated weight-drop as seismic source and 1 m receiver spacing with near- and far-offsets of 0.5 and 119.5 m, respectively. In such areas with near-surface contaminants, a detailed subsurface characterization of the vadose zone hydraulic parameters is very important. Indeed, an inexpensive method of deriving such parameters by the use of seismic reflection surveys is beneficial, and our approach uses the relationship between seismic velocity and hydrogeological parameters together with empirical observations relating porosity to permeability and hydraulic conductivity. Shear wave velocity ( V s ) profiles were estimated from surface wave dispersion analysis of the seismic reflection data and were subsequently used to derive hydraulic parameters such as porosity, permeability, and hydraulic conductivity. Additional geophysical data including core samples, vertical seismic profiling, surface electrical resistivity tomography, natural gamma and electrical resistivity logs allowed for a robust assessment of the validity and geological significance of the estimated V s and hydrogeological models. The results demonstrate the usefulness of this approach for the upper 15 m of shallow unconsolidated sediments even though the survey design parameters were not optimal for surface wave analysis due to the higher than desired frequency geophones.

Engineering↗

DOE OSTI2024

Long-Range Biometric Identification in Real World Scenarios: A Comprehensive Evaluation Framework Based on Missions

The considerable body of data available for evaluating biometric recognition systems in Research and Development (R&D) environments has contributed to the increasingly common problem of target performance mismatch. Biometric algorithms are frequently tested against data that may not reflect the real world applications they target. From a Testing and Evaluation (T&E) standpoint, this domain mismatch causes difficulty assessing when improvements in State-of-the-Art (SOTA) research actually translate to improved applied outcomes. This problem can be addressed with thoughtful preparation of data and experimental methods to reflect specific use-cases and scenarios.To that end, this paper evaluates research solutions for identifying individuals at ranges and altitudes, which could support various application areas such as counterterrorism, protection of critical infrastructure facilities, military force protection, and border security. We address challenges including image quality issues and reliance on face recognition as the sole biometric modality. By fusing face and body features, we propose developing robust biometric systems for effective long-range identification from both the ground and steep pitch angles. Preliminary results show promising progress in whole-body recognition. This paper presents these early findings and discusses potential future directions for advancing long-range biometric identification systems based on mission-driven metrics.

Aykac, Deniz↗

DOE OSTI2021

Detection of the Metabolic Response to Drought Stress Using Hyperspectral Reflectance

Drought is the most important limitation on crop yield. Understanding and detecting drought stress in crops is vital for improving water use efficiency through effective breeding and management. Leaf reflectance spectroscopy offers a rapid, non-destructive alternative to traditional techniques for measuring plant traits involved in a drought response. We measured drought stress in six glasshouse-grown agronomic species using physiological, biochemical and spectral data. In contrast to physiological traits, leaf metabolite concentrations revealed drought stress before it was visible to the naked eye. We used full-spectrum leaf reflectance data to predict metabolite concentrations using partial least-squares regression, with validation R2 values of 0.49 to 0.87. We show for the first time that spectroscopy may be used for the quantitative estimation of proline and abscisic acid, demonstrating the first use of hyperspectral data to detect a phytohormone. We used linear discriminant analysis and partial least squares discriminant analysis to differentiate between droughted and watered plants based on measured traits (accuracy: 71%) and raw spectral data (66%). Finally, we validated our glasshouse-developed models in an independent field trial. We demonstrate that spectroscopy can detect drought stress via underlying biochemical changes, before visual differences occur, representing a powerful advance for measuring limitations on yield.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Validation of electron backscattering in the MCNP6.3 code

A new electron backscattering validation suite has been developed for the MCNP® code. The calculations in this suite cover both condensed history and single-event transport methods, seven different elemental materials ranging from beryllium to uranium, and incident electron energies from 200 eV to 14.1 MeV. In general, the accuracy of the MCNP code for electron backscattering calculations is energy-dependent. For incident electron energies below 2 keV, the condensed history method is not applied while the single-event method shows poor agreement with experimental measurements due to poor accuracy of the underlying atomic data. For incident energies between 2 keV and 256 keV, the single-event method typically shows better agreement with experiments, while for incident energies above 256 keV the condensed history method gives better accuracy. Additionally, agreement with experimental data is generally worse for low- Z materials such as beryllium and carbon, which may reflect deficiencies in the data or physics underlying electron transport through light elements in the MCNP code. The new electron backscattering validation suite, along with the previously introduced electron stopping power and Lockwood energy deposition validation suites, provide MCNP users with a quantified understanding of the uncertainties in electron transport calculations. Future improvements to electron transport in the MCNP code are necessary for low energies (≤ 2 keV) and for low- Z materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

IM3 + EPRI Data Center Load Projections

This dataset contains scenarios of hourly total electricity demand with and without projected loads from data centers over the period 2022-2040. The root projections without data center demands are identical to those documented in Burleyson et al. 2024. In short, those projections encompass hourly electricity demands for 54 Balancing Authorities (BAs) in the United States across a range of eight of weather and socioeconomic scenarios. Refer to the root dataset and accompanying publication, Burleyson et al. 2025, for information about how those projections were generated. For this derivative dataset we used the base loads from the following scenarios: rcp45hotter_ssp3 rcp45hotter_ssp5 rcp85hotter_ssp3 rcp85hotter_ssp5 The root load projections did not reflect the drastic expansion of data centers that has occurred in the last several years to support artificial intelligence and cloud computing. To reflect growth in data center demand, a second set of load projections were created in which we layered in additional data center load projections based on the data center load growth scenarios described in a 2024 report by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI): "Powering Intelligence: Analyzing Artificial Intelligence and Data Center Energy Consumption". The EPRI projections from the report are included in this dataset (EPRI_2024_Projections.xlsx). That report contained annual state-level data center load projections for four year-over-year growth rates for data center demands: Low (3.71% annual growth) Moderate (5% annual growth) High (10% annual growth) Higher (15% annual growth) To homogenize the load projections with and without data centers we had to get them to a common scale. The first step was to take the EPRI annual state-level data center energy consumption values and convert them to 8760-hr loads for each year. We did that by assuming a flat (e.g., not weather- or time-sensitive) load profile and distributing the data center loads in each state evenly across all hours in a year. From there the loads were downscaled from the state-level to the county-level using 2019 county-level populations as weights. Finally, the county-level hourly data center loads were summed to the BA-level using the county-to-BA mapping underpinning the root load projections. The net result is 16 (4 weather and socioeconomic scenarios crossed with 4 data center load growth scenarios) unique load projections for the period 2022-2040. The file format follows that of the root dataset with a single additional column "Scaled_TELL_BA_Load_with_DC_MWh" that contains the hourly loads with the added data center loads for a given BA-year-scenario combination. Please refer to the readme file in the root dataset for more information on the file format.

Burleyson, Casey [Pacific Northwest National Labor↗