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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 271 records · Page 15
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Process Intensification for the Biological Production of the Fuel Precursor Butyric Acid from Biomass

The production of fuels from lignocellulosic biomass is key to reduce our reliance on petroleum and to promote a sustainable bioeconomy. Butyric acid (BA) is a promising chemical precursor for the production of renewable diesel and jet fuels. BA can be biologically produced from lignocellulosic sugars. However, challenges associated with product selectivity and recovery must be overcome to achieve industrially relevant metrics. Here, we evaluate various fermentation configurations and demonstrate near-homo-butyrate production by using the biocatalyst Clostridium tyrobutyricum. We also develop an advanced in situ product recovery process based on hybrid extraction-distillation (HED-ISPR) and conduct techno-economic analyses and life cycle assessments. We demonstrate that the HED-ISPR process lowers the overall capital and operating expenses and environmental impact compared to other traditional fermentation processes. Overall, BA minimum product selling price from biomass is 55% of the current BA selling price from petroleum, a significant decrease toward viable renewable fuel production.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Electric Vehicles, Biofuels, and Transitions in Transportation Energy

The decarbonization of power sources for light duty transportation is moving towards the use of renewable energies, biofuels, and electric vehicles. Currently there are three major light transportation fuels: gasoline (US gasoline is 98% E10), biofuels (E85), and electricity. Currently fuel ethanol in biofuels is obtained principally from corn in the US and sugarcane in Brazil with a small amount from cellulose. The transition to alternative fuels has been occurring since 1980, although light transportation still relies on gasoline. The rise of battery electric vehicles (BEV) is now beginning to offset internal combustion engines (ICE), while recent advances in biotechnology and integrated plant design have enhanced the economic feasibility of cellulosic biofuels. This paper explores the potential role of these fuels in reducing the carbon footprint associated with light transportation. We compare three different cases: Gasoline, E85 and full electric based on the Argonne AFLEET tool to calculate generation of greenhouse gases due to manufacturing and operation of BEV and ICE cars, respectively, in the US assuming an average useful automobile life of 200,000 miles or 12 years. We concluded that significant liquid fuel use (both renewable and non-renewable) will continue for the next 50 years. Here, renewable liquid fuels have an important role to play as the transportation sector transitions from petroleum to other energy sources.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Using Separation-Enhanced Isotope Ratio Mass Spectrometry to Enable Increased Renewable Carbon Content in Transportation Fuels (CRADA 525)

Stable isotope ratio measurements of carbon atoms using isotope ratio mass spectrometry (IRMS) can be an effective tool for quantifying biogenic carbon in co-processed fuels, with results approaching the precision and accuracy of accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS). The lower cost of an IRMS may enable deployment to refineries, improving access and analysis turnaround times (≤2 hours), and, by extension, provide data that can allow process optimization to maximize renewable carbon in desired refinery products. This project explored the integration of chemical separation with IRMS analyses to enable highly detailed tracking of biogenic carbon into fuel product streams separated by boiling point range, chemical class, or specific compound. Forty-nine fuels and fuel components of fossil and biogenic origin, spanning gasoline and diesel boiling point ranges, were received from three refiners and were analyzed for their δ 13 C values via IRMS. Results spanned a 13 C range from ca. 10‰ to 44‰ and reflect materials derived from sustainable sources (e.g., C4 or C3 plants, animal-based pathways, syngas) or from fossil-derived fuels. Common ranges are approximately 18‰ to 9‰ and approximately 30‰ to 20‰ for C4 and C3 plants, respectively, and approximately 34‰ to 24‰ and approximately 70‰ to 33‰ for petroleum-derived fuels and methane, respectively. Fuel-like standards were developed and tested using direct-injection elemental analyzer (EA) IRMS for liquid fuels. This method was compared with the published methods, yielding statistically similar results. Four blend curve sets were produced ranging from 0% to 100% of a fuel containing biogenic carbon, focusing on 0% to 10% biogenic carbon. Linear fits were the most applicable for two of the four blend curve sets; however, two sets were found to exhibit slightly quadratic behavior, which was more pronounced in low biogenic blend samples, necessitating second-order fits. The origin of the slight quadratic behavior remains unclear; however, the discussion points to possible interpretations. CanmetENERGY thoroughly characterized a majority of the samples using one- and two-dimensional gas chromatography (GC and GC×GC, respectively) and other analyses. Selected samples were subjected to solid phase extraction (SPE) for saturate, olefin, aromatic, and polar (SOAP) analysis, and the resulting solvent-diluted fractions containing saturates and aromatics were returned to Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), where the solvent was removed via evaporation or physical separation using GC techniques. Characterization and separations provided an understanding of saturate and aromatic content, as well as boiling point ranges for each sample and sample fraction. Samples resulting from SPE were examined using EA-IRMS and gas chromatography combustion IRMS (GC-C-IRMS) analyses. Both approaches suggest that the range in values between end-members can be increased by selecting the paraffinic or aromatic fraction of the end-member or by selecting among individual compounds resulting from GC separation of the paraffinic fractions. Considerable work remains to put these approaches into practice and statistically validate the benefit for using a fraction or individual compound over bulk analysis of a sample. However, initial results suggest that separations provide advantages for samples having blend ratios of less than 10% biogenic blendstocks. 13 C results showed statistically similar biofuel blend results to those obtained at PNNL, although additional work is needed to obtain better reproducibility. Select samples were sent to Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) for IRMS measurements and Beta Analytics for AMS measurements. This work suggests that IRMS and AMS yield closely comparable results and in some circumstances, IRMS could serve as a surrogate for AMS. While additional work is needed to better resolve statistical advantages for separations and better show the comparable nature of IRMS and AMS in both the biogenic carbon analysis of bulk chemical classes, initial results from this study suggest that these should be pursued in order to proliferate this approach for quantifying biogenic carbon in transportation fuels to the refinery level, thereby potentially enabling process optimization in co-processing scenarios.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Single-step conversion of ethanol into n-butene-rich olefins over metal catalysts supported on ZrO 2 -SiO 2 mixed oxides

With airlines committed to drastically reduce their carbon footprint by 2050, producing jet fuel from renewable ethanol is of particular interest. Here we reported on an Ag/ZrO 2 /SBA-16 catalyst that is very effective for directly converting ethanol into to n-butene-rich olefins jet fuel precursors (i.e., 88% at full conversion). Here, we report on a Cu/ZrO 2 /SBA-16 catalyst that presents remarkable olefins selectivity (i.e., 89% at 96% conversion) and enhanced stability as compared to Ag/ZrO2/SBA-16 catalyst. Under severe operating conditions a conversion loss < 10% was observed with the Cu/ZrO 2 /SBA-16 catalyst as compared to a 50% loss of conversion with the Ag/ZrO 2 /SBA-16 catalyst. Combined experimental and computational tools revealed that replacing Ag with Cu shifts the reaction pathway of crotonaldehyde hydrogenation from 1,3-butadiene (i.e., coke precursor) production to butyraldehyde formation. Experiments conducted with 4%Cu/4%ZrO 2 supported on SBA-16, dealuminated zeolite Beta, and aluminum silicate revealed the performance and stability advantage of the SBA-16-supported catalyst.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Biomass feedstock transport using fuel cell and battery electric trucks improves lifecycle metrics of biofuel sustainability and economy

We report the use of new vehicle technologies such as fuel cell hybrid electric and fully electric powertrains for biomass feedstock supply is an unexplored solution to reducing biofuel production cost, greenhouse gas emissions, and health impacts. These technologies have found success in light-duty vehicle applications and are in development for heavy-duty trucks. This study presents the first detailed stochastic techno-economic analysis and life-cycle assessment of biomass feedstock supply systems with diesel, fuel cell hybrid electric, and fully electric trucks and determines their impacts on biofuel production considering butanol as a representative biofuel. This study finds that fuel cell hybrid electric and fully electric trucks consume less energy relative to the diesel-powered truck regardless of the evaluated circumstances, including payloads of truck (loaded and empty), pavement types (gravel and paved), road conditions (normal and damaged), and road networks (local and highways). The use of fuel cell hybrid and fully electric trucks powered by H 2 -fuel and renewable sources of electricity, respectively, results in a large reduction in cost and carbon footprint, specifically for a long-distance hauling, and minimize other economic and environmental impacts. While the economic advantage of fuel cell hybrid electric vehicle is dependent on the price of H 2 -fuel and road conditions, use reduces the GHG emissions of biobutanol per 100 km-trucking-distance by 0.98-10.9 gCO 2e /MJ. Results show that converting to fully electric truck transport decreases the biobutanol production cost and GHG emissions per 100 km-trucking-distance by 0.4-7.3 cents/L and 0.78 to 9.1 gCO 2e /MJ, respectively. This study establishes the foundation for future investigations that will guide the development of economically, socially, and environmentally sustainable biomass feedstock supply system for cellulosic biorefineries or other goods transportation systems.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Techno-economic analysis of cellulosic ethanol conversion to fuel and chemicals

In this paper, we describe multiple scenarios investigated to assess the techno-economic results of producing fuels from corn stover-derived ethanol and the impact of co-producing higher-value, ethanol-derived n-butanol and 1,3-butadiene to improve economic feasibility. An alternative approach that produces only chemicals from the lignocellulosic-derived ethanol while producing fuels from the residual cell mass, unconverted sugars and lignin using hydrothermal liquefaction and hydrotreating also is described. Our results indicate that the hydrothermal liquefaction pathway has cost advantages relative to pathways that burn lignin from the corn stover conversion process to make ethanol when the associated ethanol stream is used to make only chemicals.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Pandemic, War, and Global Energy Transitions

The COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s war on Ukraine have impacted the global economy, including the energy sector. The pandemic caused drastic fluctuations in energy demand, oil price shocks, disruptions in energy supply chains, and hampered energy investments, while the war left the world with energy price hikes and energy security challenges. The long-term impacts of these crises on low-carbon energy transitions and mitigation of climate change are still uncertain but are slowly emerging. This paper analyzes the impacts throughout the energy system, including upstream fuel supply, renewable energy investments, demand for energy services, and implications for energy equity, by reviewing recent studies and consulting experts in the field. We find that both crises initially appeared as opportunities for low-carbon energy transitions: the pandemic by showing the extent of lifestyle and behavioral change in a short period and the role of science-based policy advice, and the war by highlighting the need for greater energy diversification and reliance on local, renewable energy sources. However, the early evidence suggests that policymaking worldwide is focused on short-term, seemingly quicker solutions, such as supporting the incumbent energy industry in the post-pandemic era to save the economy and looking for new fossil fuel supply routes for enhancing energy security following the war. As such, the fossil fuel industry may emerge even stronger after these energy crises creating new lock-ins. This implies that the public sentiment against dependency on fossil fuels may end as a lost opportunity to translate into actions toward climate-friendly energy transitions, without ambitious plans for phasing out such fuels altogether. We propose policy recommendations to overcome these challenges toward achieving resilient and sustainable energy systems, mostly driven by energy services.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Propelling sustainable energy: Multi-omics analysis of pennycress FATTY ACID ELONGATION1 knockout for biofuel production

Abstract The aviation industry’s growing interest in renewable jet fuel has encouraged the exploration of alternative oilseed crops. Replacing traditional fossil fuels with a sustainable, domestically sourced crop can substantially reduce carbon emissions, thus mitigating global climate instability. Pennycress (Thlaspi arvense L.) is an emerging oilseed intermediate crop that can be grown during the offseason between maize (Zea mays) and soybean (Glycine max) to produce renewable biofuel. Pennycress is being domesticated through breeding and mutagenesis, providing opportunities for trait enhancement. Here, we employed metabolic engineering strategies to improve seed oil composition and bolster the plant's economic competitiveness. FATTY ACID ELONGATION1 (FAE1) was targeted using CRISPR-Cas 9 gene editing to eliminate very long chain fatty acids (VLCFAs) from pennycress seed oil, thereby enhancing its cold flow properties. Through an integrated multiomics approach, we investigated the impact of eliminating VLCFAs in developing and mature plant embryos. Our findings revealed improved cold-germination efficiency in fae1, with seedling emergence occurring up to 3 d earlier at 10 °C. However, these alterations led to a tradeoff between storage oil content and composition. Additionally, these shifts in lipid biosynthesis were accompanied by broad metabolic changes, such as the accumulation of glucose and ADP-glucose quantities consistent with increased starch production. Furthermore, shifts to shorter FA chains triggered the upregulation of heat shock proteins, underscoring the importance of VLCFAs in stress signaling pathways. Overall, this research provides crucial insights for optimizing pennycress seed oil while preserving essential traits for biofuel applications.

Rasoul, Amira (ORCID:0009000714290175)↗
DOE OSTI2025

High entropy powering green energy: hydrogen, batteries, electronics, and catalysis

A reformation in energy is underway to replace fossil fuels with renewable sources, driven by the development of new, robust, and multi-functional materials. High-entropy materials (HEMs) have emerged as promising candidates for various green energy applications, having unusual chemistries that give rise to remarkable functionalities. This review examines recent innovations in HEMs, focusing on hydrogen generation/storage, fuel cells, batteries, semiconductors/electronics, and catalysis—where HEMs have demonstrated the ability to outperform state-of-the-art materials. We present new master plots that illustrate the superior performance of HEMs compared to conventional systems for hydrogen generation/storage and heat-to-electricity conversion. We highlight the role of computational methods, such as density functional theory and machine learning, in accelerating the discovery and optimization of HEMs. The review also presents current challenges and proposes future directions for the field. We emphasize the need for continued integration of modeling, data, and experiments to investigate and leverage the underlying mechanisms of the HEMs that are powering progress in sustainable energy.

batteries↗
DOE OSTI2024

Pilot-Scale Algal Oil Production

The main objective of the project is complete: development of a preliminary planning and design for a pilot-scale algal oil cultivation and processing facility, FEL-3 design with -5% / +15% cost estimate accuracy, and conversion of the algal oil to biofuel in an off-site existing bio-oil refinery. The design basis includes 10 tons per day of dried algae cultivated with CO 2 supplied by direct air capture, electricity supplied solar power, well water supply, zero liquid discharge, off-site extraction, and off-site conversion of oil to biofuel. The design and permitting package is an important milestone in the path to commercialization of algal biofuels and bioproducts as it provides the preliminary design, permitting path, long-term land lease, planning documents, and team needed for success in future engineering, construction, start-up and operations of a pilot-scale farm at a site in Paso Robles, CA. Outcomes of the business assessment include (i) identification of a product spectrum for economical algal biofuels using co-products with markets that are commensurate with production of 6-7 billion gallons per year of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), renewable diesel, and renewable gasoline, (ii) a path toward near-term contribution of algae oil to SAF, and (iii) an approach for long-term operation of a pilot-scale farm.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2023

The significance of biomass densification in biological-based biorefineries: A critical review

Replacing fossil fuels with renewable biofuels derived from lignocellulosic biomass is an important aspect of addressing environmental challenges and developing a sustainable industrial society. Densification overcomes the problems of low bulk density and poor flowability of biomass and has been commercialized for producing solid biofuels, but the overall impact of densification on biological-based biorefineries that primarily target liquid fuels (e.g., ethanol) is still under investigation. Herein, this review provides a thorough summary of the application of densified biomass in biological-based biorefineries. First, the effects of densification parameters as well as variables of biomass materials on the densified products’ quality are reviewed, and different commonly used densification technologies are also discussed and compared. Then, the discussion focuses on the physiochemical modifications of biomass caused by densification that may influence further pretreatment and/or enzymatic hydrolysis in biorefineries. Industrial pelleting has been generally shown to exhibit positive/neutral effects on the enzymatic hydrolysis of multiple biomass feedstocks after pretreatments, indicating the viability of using pellets as starting feedstocks in biorefineries. Densification causes structural disruption of biomass, which may facilitate further biochemical conversions. Integrating biomass densification in the feedstock supply chain is feasible for large-scale biorefineries to overcome the techno-economic barriers and become profitable. Suggestions are presented for the efficiency enhancement and cost reduction in densification-based biorefineries. To enable wider applications, it is now the time to employ more demo and full-scale activities in different regions of the world pushing the research and innovation of densification integrated within biorefining.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Develop a Simulation Framework for Understanding Physico-Chemical Processes and Optimization of CHZ' Plastic Thermolyze Technology (CRADA Final Report)

Thermolyzer(TM) technology is a third-generation, multi-reactor, oxygen-free, low pressure, slow pyrolysis process. It has proven to be remarkably versatile in successfully processing all types of hydrocarbon waste. These include all seven types of plastics, tires, auto shredder residue, carpet, electronic waste, and composites. Working with the IACMI, Thermolyzer(TM) technology has recovered the glass and carbon fibers from wind turbine blades for reuse into new applications. Its primary output is a synthesis gas that is rich in H 2 , CH 4 , and small amounts of C 2-4 aliphatic hydrocarbons. Other components are CO and CO 2 . Three unique features set Thermolyzer(TM) apart from other pyrolysis systems: the syngas is clean enough to run in Siemens or Solar gas turbines or IC engines without fouling, clean, salable, byproducts are produced, and CO 2 emissions are lower than natural gas power plants. Research results have been obtained from an operating 7 ton/day facility. A 44 ton/day plant has successfully operated as noted above. The process works because it makes use of the recoverable embodied energy in the feedstock. Surprisingly, a pound of some plastics has the same recoverable energy content as a pound of gasoline. Thus, it is imperative to develop a process that economically converts scrap plastics (including ocean plastics) into energy and thereby conserve the non-renewable fossil fuels for future generations. The Thermolyzer(TM) technology can also be used to create liquid fuels like gasoline and diesel from hydrocarbon wastes. Because of the high hydrogen content of the synthesis gas, hydrogen can be recovered more inexpensively than the current solar or wind energy being used to electrolyze water. That hydrogen can be used for fuel cell powered vehicles or converted into ammonia for agriculture or as a hydrogen storage medium. Extension of this technology to other wastes such as tires, auto shredder residue or wood wastes would expand the circular economy.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Today's Energy Challenges, Tomorrow's Solutions: Integrated Energy Pathways: Modernizing Our Energy Systems

Integrated Energy Pathways Today's electric grid was built for century-old needs, not the needs of tomorrow's emerging system. As the cost of generating electricity falls, products and systems that previously operated on other types of fuels are becoming increasingly "electrified." Instead of a one-way flow of electricity to systems that operate independently from one another, we are seeing more bi-directional connectivity between the grid and multiple end points. Integrated Energy Systems require a fundamental rethinking of grid infrastructure and the path electricity takes from the source of generation to the end point of use. Inevitably, the way the grid is managed today won't be the way it is managed 10-15 years from now. NREL is pioneering the fundamental research needed to guide this transition through renewable energy fuels and low-carbon electricity generation. Working with industry partners, we can collaboratively develop a fresh approach to energy generation, security, resilience, and advanced mobility.

energy security↗
DOE OSTI2024

Understanding the ignition process and flame structure of conventional and oxygenated fuels under engine relevant conditions – An optical study

Renewably generated synthetic fuels such as poly-oxymethylene ethers (OME) have a significant potential to effectively break the soot-NOX trade-off in compression ignition engines by using exhaust gas recirculation (EGR) to maintain low nitrogen oxide (NOX) emissions while maintaining good efficiency and simultaneously contributing to circular carbon economy. However, owing to the fundamental differences in properties of OME when compared to fossil-based diesel fuels, it is critical to fully understand its ignition and combustion phenomenology to take advantage of this fuel to its utmost potential. In this context, this work outlines the results of a systematic experimental study performed in a heavy-duty, single-cylinder, optical engine probing the spatial and temporal progression of fuel decomposition and ignition behavior of OME when compared to n-dodecane, a diesel-fuel surrogate. Thermodynamic analysis and optical diagnostics techniques including simultaneous HCHO-PLIF and OH-PLIF complemented by high-speed OH* chemiluminescence were employed along with parametric sweeps of intake temperature and EGR dilution rates. OME does not exhibit any observable low temperature heat release irrespective of the ambient oxygen concentration. Differences in the observed diffusive flame structure such as longer flame lift-off length, less pronounced combustion recession, faster premixed burn at ignition (“volumetric” ignition), non-sooting behavior suggest that the inherent presence of fuel-bound oxygen in OME can skew the air-fuel ratio (AFR) distribution within the jet thereby reducing the reliance of combustion on mixing and air entrainment. This leads to rapid late-cycle oxidation leading to shorter combustion duration and favorable combustion phasing. Results also suggest that OME exhibits relatively weak negative temperature coefficient (NTC) behavior, however, the OME fuel-decomposition kinetic-pathways produce significant concentration of HCHO, which might be erroneously interpreted as a product of cool-flames.

Air-fuel ratio↗
DOE OSTI2020

Anode Boosted Electrolyzer

The aim of this project is to develop an anode catalyst and anolyte delivery system in renewably powered flow-electrolyzers that utilize waste carbon dissolved in non-potable process water as the anolyte to lower the overall cell potential at which hydrogen is generated (Anode-Boosting) while simultaneously purifying a non-potable water source. This project spans several of the desired aspects in the Renewable Hydrogen Transportation Fuel Pathways of interest: it combines renewably sourced energy with waste hydrocarbons, leading to enhanced water-splitting and eventual delivery and distribution of hydrogen for use in fuel cell powered transportation. Deployment of an Anode-Boosted Electrolysis process will provide a significant improvement in the effective energy efficiency for the generation of hydrogen due to a reduced cell potential and the desirable removal of organic impurities in waste water, offering a route to generating clean hydrogen and clean(er) water.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2022

From Farm to Flight: CoverCress as a Low Carbon Intensity Cash Cover Crop for Sustainable Aviation Fuel Production. A Review of Progress Towards Commercialization

Thlaspi arvense L. (Field Pennycress; pennycress) is being converted into a winter-annual oilseed crop that confers cover crop benefits when grown throughout the 12 million-hectares U.S. Midwest. To ensure a fit with downstream market demand, conversion involves not only improvements in yield and maturity through traditional breeding, but also improvements in the composition of the oil and protein through gene editing tools. The conversion process is similar to the path taken to convert rapeseed into Canola. In the case of field pennycress, the converted product that is suitable as a rotational crop is called CoverCress™ as marketed by CoverCress Inc. or golden pennycress if marketed by others. Off-season integration of a CoverCress crop into existing corn and soybean hectares would extend the growing season on established croplands and avoid displacement of food crops or ecosystems while yielding up to 1 billion liters of seed oil annually by 2030, with the potential to grow to 8 billion liters from production in the U.S. Midwest alone. The aviation sector is committed to carbon-neutral growth and reducing emissions of its global market, which in 2019 approached 122 billion liters of consumption in the U.S. and 454 billion liters globally. The oil derived from a CoverCress crop is ideally suited as a new bioenergy feedstock for the production of drop-in Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF), renewable diesel, biodiesel and other value-added coproducts. Through a combination of breeding and genomics-enabled mutagenesis approaches, considerable progress has been made in genetically improving yield and other agronomic traits. With USDA-NIFA funding and continued public and private investments, improvements to CoverCress germplasm and agronomic practices suggest that field-scale production can surpass 1,680 kg ha -1 (1,500 lb ac -1 ) in the near term. At current commodity prices, economic modeling predicts this level of production can be profitable across the entire supply chain. Two-thirds of the grain value is in oil converted to fuels and chemicals, and the other one-third is in the meal used as an animal feed, industrial applications, and potential plant-based protein products. In addition to strengthening rural communities by providing income to producers and agribusinesses, cultivating a CoverCress crop potentially offers a myriad of ecosystem services. The most notable service is water quality protection through reduced nutrient leaching and reduced soil erosion. Biodiversity enhancement by supporting pollinators’ health is also a benefit. While the efforts described herein are focused on the U.S., cultivation of a CoverCress crop will likely have a broader application to regions around the world with similar agronomic and environmental conditions.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Least-cost targets and avoided fossil fuel capacity in India’s pursuit of renewable energy

India has set aggressive targets to install more than 400 GW of wind and solar electricity generation by 2030, with more than two-thirds of that capacity coming from solar. This paper examines the electricity and carbon mitigation costs to reliably operate India’s grid in 2030 for a variety of wind and solar targets (200 GW to 600 GW) and the most promising options for reducing these costs. We find that systems where solar photovoltaic comprises only 25 to 50% of the total renewable target have the lowest carbon mitigation costs in most scenarios. This result invites a reexamination of India’s proposed solar-majority targets. We also find that, compared to other regions and contrary to prevailing assumptions, meeting high renewable targets will avoid building very few new fossil fuel (coal and natural gas) power plants because of India’s specific weather patterns and need to meet peak electricity demand. However, building 600 GW of renewable capacity, with the majority being wind plants, reduces how often fossil fuel power plants run, and this amount of capacity can hold India’s 2030 emissions below 2018 levels for less than the social cost of carbon. With likely wind and solar cost declines and increases in coal energy costs, balanced or wind-majority high renewable energy systems (600 GW or ≈ 45% share by energy) could result in electricity costs similar to a fossil fuel-dominated system. As an alternative strategy for meeting peak electricity demand, battery storage can avert the need for new fossil fuel capacity but is cost effective only at low capital costs (≈ USD 150 per kWh).

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗