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This study was specifically designed to investigate the frequency response of the Eastern Interconnection that results from large loss-of-generation events of the type targeted by the North American Electric Reliability Corp. Standard BAL-003 Frequency Response and Frequency Bias Setting (NERC 2012a), under possible future system conditions with high levels of wind generation.
The Renewable Electricity Futures (RE Futures) Study investigated the challenges and impacts of achieving very high renewable electricity generation levels in the contiguous United States by 2050. The analysis focused on the sufficiency of the geographically diverse U.S. renewable resources to meet electricity demand over future decades, the hourly operational characteristics of the U.S. grid with high levels of variable wind and solar generation, and the potential implications of deploying high levels of renewables in the future. RE Futures focused on technical aspects of high penetration of renewable electricity; it did not focus on how to achieve such a future through policy or other measures. Given the inherent uncertainties involved with analyzing alternative long-term energy futures as well as the multiple pathways that might be taken to achieve higher levels of renewable electricity supply, RE Futures explored a range of scenarios to investigate and compare the impacts of renewable electricity penetration levels (30%-90%), future technology performance improvements, potential constraints to renewable electricity development, and future electricity demand growth assumptions. RE Futures was led by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT).
The Renewable Electricity Futures (RE Futures) Study investigated the challenges and impacts of achieving very high renewable electricity generation levels in the contiguous United States by 2050. The analysis focused on the sufficiency of the geographically diverse U.S. renewable resources to meet electricity demand over future decades, the hourly operational characteristics of the U.S. grid with high levels of variable wind and solar generation, and the potential implications of deploying high levels of renewables in the future. RE Futures focused on technical aspects of high penetration of renewable electricity; it did not focus on how to achieve such a future through policy or other measures. Given the inherent uncertainties involved with analyzing alternative long-term energy futures as well as the multiple pathways that might be taken to achieve higher levels of renewable electricity supply, RE Futures explored a range of scenarios to investigate and compare the impacts of renewable electricity penetration levels (30%-90%), future technology performance improvements, potential constraints to renewable electricity development, and future electricity demand growth assumptions. RE Futures was led by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT).
The Renewable Electricity Futures (RE Futures) Study investigated the challenges and impacts of achieving very high renewable electricity generation levels in the contiguous United States by 2050. The analysis focused on the sufficiency of the geographically diverse U.S. renewable resources to meet electricity demand over future decades, the hourly operational characteristics of the U.S. grid with high levels of variable wind and solar generation, and the potential implications of deploying high levels of renewables in the future. RE Futures focused on technical aspects of high penetration of renewable electricity; it did not focus on how to achieve such a future through policy or other measures. Given the inherent uncertainties involved with analyzing alternative long-term energy futures as well as the multiple pathways that might be taken to achieve higher levels of renewable electricity supply, RE Futures explored a range of scenarios to investigate and compare the impacts of renewable electricity penetration levels (30%–90%), future technology performance improvements, potential constraints to renewable electricity development, and future electricity demand growth assumptions. RE Futures was led by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). Learn more at the RE Futures website. http://www.nrel.gov/analysis/re_futures/
The Renewable Electricity Futures (RE Futures) Study investigated the challenges and impacts of achieving very high renewable electricity generation levels in the contiguous United States by 2050. The analysis focused on the sufficiency of the geographically diverse U.S. renewable resources to meet electricity demand over future decades, the hourly operational characteristics of the U.S. grid with high levels of variable wind and solar generation, and the potential implications of deploying high levels of renewables in the future. RE Futures focused on technical aspects of high penetration of renewable electricity; it did not focus on how to achieve such a future through policy or other measures. Given the inherent uncertainties involved with analyzing alternative long-term energy futures as well as the multiple pathways that might be taken to achieve higher levels of renewable electricity supply, RE Futures explored a range of scenarios to investigate and compare the impacts of renewable electricity penetration levels (30%–90%), future technology performance improvements, potential constraints to renewable electricity development, and future electricity demand growth assumptions. RE Futures was led by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). Learn more at the RE Futures website. http://www.nrel.gov/analysis/re_futures/
The Renewable Electricity Futures (RE Futures) Study investigated the challenges and impacts of achieving very high renewable electricity generation levels in the contiguous United States by 2050. The analysis focused on the sufficiency of the geographically diverse U.S. renewable resources to meet electricity demand over future decades, the hourly operational characteristics of the U.S. grid with high levels of variable wind and solar generation, and the potential implications of deploying high levels of renewables in the future. RE Futures focused on technical aspects of high penetration of renewable electricity; it did not focus on how to achieve such a future through policy or other measures. Given the inherent uncertainties involved with analyzing alternative long-term energy futures as well as the multiple pathways that might be taken to achieve higher levels of renewable electricity supply, RE Futures explored a range of scenarios to investigate and compare the impacts of renewable electricity penetration levels (30%–90%), future technology performance improvements, potential constraints to renewable electricity development, and future electricity demand growth assumptions. RE Futures was led by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). Learn more at the RE Futures website. http://www.nrel.gov/analysis/re_futures/
The Renewable Electricity Futures (RE Futures) Study investigated the challenges and impacts of achieving very high renewable electricity generation levels in the contiguous United States by 2050. The analysis focused on the sufficiency of the geographically diverse U.S. renewable resources to meet electricity demand over future decades, the hourly operational characteristics of the U.S. grid with high levels of variable wind and solar generation, and the potential implications of deploying high levels of renewables in the future. RE Futures focused on technical aspects of high penetration of renewable electricity; it did not focus on how to achieve such a future through policy or other measures. Given the inherent uncertainties involved with analyzing alternative long-term energy futures as well as the multiple pathways that might be taken to achieve higher levels of renewable electricity supply, RE Futures explored a range of scenarios to investigate and compare the impacts of renewable electricity penetration levels (30%–90%), future technology performance improvements, potential constraints to renewable electricity development, and future electricity demand growth assumptions. RE Futures was led by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). Learn more at the RE Futures website. http://www.nrel.gov/analysis/re_futures/
Energy storage systems (ESS) have the potential to be very beneficial for applications such as reducing the ramping of generators, peak shaving, and balancing not only the variability introduced by renewable energy sources, but also the uncertainty introduced by errors in their forecasts. Optimal usage of storage may result in reduced generation costs and an increased use of renewable energy. However, optimally sizing these devices is a challenging problem. This paper aims to provide the tools to optimally size an ESS under the assumption that it will be operated under a model predictive control scheme and that the forecast of the renewable energy resources include prediction errors. A two-stage stochastic model predictive control is formulated and solved, where the optimal usage of the storage is simultaneously determined along with the optimal generation outputs and size of the storage. Wind forecast errors are taken into account in the optimization problem via probabilistic constraints for which an analytical form is derived. This allows for the stochastic optimization problem to be solved directly, without using sampling-based approaches, and sizing the storage to account not only for a wide range of potential scenarios, but also for a wide range of potential forecast errors. In the proposed formulation, we account for the fact that errors in the forecast affect how the device is operated later in the horizon and that a receding horizon scheme is used in operation to optimally use the available storage.
Variability in power generation at multiple consumer owned renewable energy sources can cause random voltage fluctuations, which may result in voltage violations at multiple nodes in a power distribution system. Traditional methods of voltage control are ineffective to address fast voltage variations. New dynamic methods of voltage control using end user devices can significantly benefit from the knowledge of the dominant influencer of voltage fluctuation (DIVF). This paper introduces information theoretic metrics to identify DIVF for every node in the power distribution system. A node can be DIVF due to its location in the distribution system and its capacity to generate and change its power. Use of traditional power flow algorithms to identify the DIVF is computationally complex which limits their use in real-time applications. In this work, information theoretic indicators of the DIVF are computed analytically in a computationally efficient manner, and their effectiveness to identify the DIVF is tested using the IEEE 69 node test system. From simulations, it is illustrated that differential entropy, Kullback-Leibler distance and Frechet distance are effective indicators of the DIVF and can successfully identify the most influential nodes providing the foundation for intelligent voltage control.
Achieving California’s 33% renewable generation goal will substantially increase uncertainty and variability in grid operations. Geothermal power plant operators could mitigate this variability and uncertainty by operating plants in a more flexible mode. Plant operators would be compensated for flexibility through payments for ancillary services such as frequency regulation, load following, and spinning reserve. This study explores economic incentives for geothermal plant operators to provide such flexibility. Historical and forecast ancillary service prices are compared to operator compensation for energy under firm contracts at fixed prices, which are higher than current or year 2020 projected market clearing prices for ancillary services in most hours of the year. Power purchase agreements recently executed by geothermal operators typically provide only energy payments at fixed energy prices and escalation rates. We postulate new contract structures that would allow a geothermal plant operator to switch from providing energy to providing ancillary services to the grid operator when it is advantageous to the plant operator to do so. Additional revenues would be earned through ancillary service payments. Estimates of these additional annual revenues a plant operator could realize are developed for a range of contract energy prices. The impacts of flexible operations on reservoir lifetimes and implications for project finance are also discussed.
Achieving California’s 33% renewable generation goal will substantially increase uncertainty and variability in grid operations. Geothermal power plant operators could mitigate this variability and uncertainty by operating plants in a more flexible mode. Plant operators would be compensated for flexibility through payments for ancillary services such as frequency regulation, load following, and spinning reserve. This study explores economic incentives for geothermal plant operators to provide such flexibility. Historical and forecast ancillary service prices are compared to operator compensation for energy under firm contracts at fixed prices, which are higher than current or year 2020 projected market clearing prices for ancillary services in most hours of the year. Power purchase agreements recently executed by geothermal operators typically provide only energy payments at fixed energy prices and escalation rates. We postulate new contract structures that would allow a geothermal plant operator to switch from providing energy to providing ancillary services to the grid operator when it is advantageous to the plant operator to do so. Additional revenues would be earned through ancillary service payments. Estimates of these additional annual revenues a plant operator could realize are developed for a range of contract energy prices. The impacts of flexible operations on reservoir lifetimes and implications for project finance are also discussed.
In recent years, a number of industry activities have aimed at addressing the integration challenges posed by the variability and uncertainty of higher penetration of renewable generation sources, like solar photovoltaic (PV) – one of the key objectives of the Sustainable and Holistic Integration of Energy Storage and Solar PV (SHINES) program launched by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE). This EPRI led Beneficial Integration of Energy Storge, and Load Management with PV project aimed to design, develop, and demonstrate end-to-end distributed energy resource (DER) integration solution to build on these activities. EPRI led project team designed and implemented a local controller that uses model predictive control (MPC) algorithm to optimally manage DERs on site by planning for a receding horizon while executing the control settings for the first step of its plan. The team has also developed a system controller to interface with the local controller to demonstrate the hierarchical control and how it can leverage DER capabilities to address challenges like over voltage and thermal limit violations which typically limits the DER hosting capacity of distribution feeders. Team has demonstrated how the local controller with optimization algorithm can effectively manage controllable loads like HVAC, water heater, and pool pumps to allow for greater integration of PV with relatively smaller energy storage system requirements. Optimal utilization of the load control can also reduce the depth of discharge of batteries to meet grid export/import limit from behind-the-meter (BTM) DERs. Proper utilization of DER capabilities via local control intelligence, like the one developed and demonstrated in this project can help the industry to address integration challenges of higher penetration of solar PV in economically efficient manner. This can help to accelerate deployment of clean renewable energy systems at lower societal cost.
This paper discusses challenges that relate to assessing and properly incentivizing the resources necessary to ensure a reliable electricity system with growing penetrations of variable generation (VG). The output of VG (primarily wind and solar generation) varies over time and cannot be predicted precisely. Therefore, the energy from VG is not always guaranteed to be available at times when it is most needed. This means that its contribution towards resource adequacy can be significantly less than the contribution from traditional resources. Variable renewable resources also have near-zero variable costs, and with production-based subsidies they may even have negative offer costs. Because variable costs drive the spot price of energy, this can lead to reduced prices, sales, and therefore revenue for all resources within the energy market. The characteristics of VG can also result in increased price volatility as well as the need for more flexibility in the resource fleet in order to maintain system reliability. Furthermore, we explore both traditional and evolving electricity market designs in the United States that aim to ensure resource adequacy and sufficient revenues to recover costs when those resources are needed for long-term reliability. We also investigate how reliability needs may be evolving and discuss how VG may affect future electricity market designs.
As the level of wind penetration increases, wind turbine technology must move from merely generating power from wind to taking a role in supporting the bulk power system. Wind turbines should have the capability to provide inertial response and primary frequency (governor) response. Wind turbine generators with this capability can support the frequency stability of the grid. To provide governorresponse, wind turbines should be able to generate less power than the available wind power and hold the rest in reserves, ready to be accessed as needed. In this paper, we explore several ways to control wind turbine output to enable reserve-holding capability. The focus of this paper is on doubly-fed induction generator (also known as Type 3) and full-converter (also known as Type 4) windturbines.
Geothermal systems making use of advanced drilling and well stimulation techniques have the potential to provide tens to hundreds of gigawatts of clean electricity generation in the United States by 2050. With near-zero variable costs, geothermal plants have traditionally been envisioned as providing “baseload” power, generating at their maximum rated output at all times. However, as variable renewable energy sources (VREs) see greater deployment in energy markets, baseload power is becoming increasingly less competitive relative to flexible, dispatchable generation and energy storage. Herein we conduct an analysis of the potential for future geothermal plants to provide both of these services, taking advantage of the natural properties of confined, engineered geothermal reservoirs to store energy in the form of accumulated, pressurized geofluid and provide flexible load-following generation. We develop a linear optimization model based on multi-physics reservoir simulations that captures the transient pressure and flow behaviors within a confined, engineered geothermal reservoir. We then optimize the investment decisions and hourly operations of a power plant exploiting such a reservoir against a set of historical and modeled future electricity price series. Further, we find that operational flexibility and in-reservoir energy storage can significantly enhance the value of geothermal plants in markets with high VRE penetration, with energy value improvements of up to 60% relative to conventional baseload plants operating under identical conditions. Across a range of realistic subsurface and operational conditions, our modeling demonstrates that confined, engineered geothermal reservoirs can provide large and effectively free energy storage capacity, with round-trip storage efficiencies comparable to those of leading grid-scale energy storage technologies. Optimized operational strategies indicate that flexible geothermal plants can provide both short- and long-duration energy storage, prioritizing output during periods of high electricity prices. Sensitivity analysis assesses the variation in outcomes across a range of subsurface conditions and cost scenarios.
Hydroelectric generation and water storage have long been components of the clean energy mix, providing both reliable steady output and operational flexibility. As variable renewable energy sources such as wind and solar increasingly replace traditional generation, the role of all flexible resources—including hydropower—in balancing supply and demand continues to evolve. This study examined the contribution of the Lower Snake River (LSR) Dam plants to Bonneville Power Administration grid services in maintaining power system reliability within the Western Interconnection. By analyzing publicly available data, the study evaluated various reliability services through performance metrics including energy capacity, balancing and ramping, voltage and reactive power support, frequency response, and transmission impact. Results indicated that the LSR plants deliver services as expected based on their size, contributing to the balancing process, ramping capabilities, and operational reserves, particularly during peak load conditions and weather events, while also providing measurable frequency and voltage support to the grid.
Concerns about climate change and altering the ocean chemistry are likely to limit the use of fossil fuels. That implies a transition to a low-carbon nuclear-renewable electricity grid. Historically variable electricity demand was met using fossil plants with low capital costs, high operating costs, and substantial greenhouse gas emissions. However, the most easily scalable very-low-emissions generating options, nuclear and non-dispatchable renewables (solar and wind), are capital-intensive technologies with low operating costs that should operate at full capacities to minimize costs. No combination of fully-utilized nuclear and renewables can meet the variable electricity demand. This implies large quantities of expensive excess generating capacity much of the time. In a free market this results in near-zero electricity prices at times of high nuclear renewables output and low electricity demand with electricity revenue collapse. Capital deployment efficiency—the economic benefit derived from energy systems capital investment at a societal level—strongly favors high utilization of these capital-intensive systems, especially if low-carbon nuclear renewables are to replace fossil fuels. Hybrid energy systems are one option for better utilization of these systems that consumes excess energy at times of low prices to make some useful product.The economic basis for development of hybrid energy systems is described for a low-carbon nuclear renewable world where much of the time there are massivequantities of excess energy available from the electric sector.Examples include (1) high-temperature electrolysis to generate hydrogen for non-fossil liquid fuels, direct use as a transport fuel, metal reduction, etc. and (2) biorefineries.Nuclear energy with its concentrated constant heat output may become the enabling technology for economically-viable low-carbon electricity grids because hybrid nuclear systems may provide an economic way to produce dispatachable variable electricity with economic base-load operation of the reactor.
This presentation was given by Marc Turner, NETL Support Contractor, at the International Center for Sustainable Carbon's "The Energy Transition - the Role for Sustainable Carbon" workshop held in Sardinia, Italy on November 16-18, 2022. The presentation addresses the NETL report titled "Conceptual Design of Pulverized Coal Electricity Generating Units for Flexible Operation" published on September 6, 2022. This study presents an independent conceptual assessment of the features, cost, and performance of pulverized coal power plants (without carbon dioxide capture) intended for flexible, rather than baseload, operation. The objective was to leverage the already substantial knowledge base about flexible operation and develop state-of-the-art pulverized coal power plant cases that are designed to accommodate flexible operation within an electric grid having a high level of renewable generation. This is of significant importance in coal-dependent regions of the world as variable renewable energy becomes more prevalent.