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DOE OSTI2025

Building a predictive model for polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon dosimetry in organotypically cultured human bronchial epithelial cells using benzo[ a ]pyrene

The airway epithelium is a primary route of exposure for inhaled toxicants, and organotypic culture models represent an important advancement for toxicity testing compared to simple in vitro models that may lack metabolic capability and multicellular structure/communication associated with the bronchial epithelium in vivo. A quantitative understanding of chemical dosimetry is key for interpreting and extrapolating study results; however, dosimetry is understudied in organotypic models limiting ability to predict toxicity. We developed a dosimetry model for primary human bronchial epithelial cells (HBECs) cultured at the air-liquid interface (ALI) using benzo[a]pyrene (BAP), a representative polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon. Dose and time course evaluation of metabolite formation and enzyme activity and expression were utilized to parameterize a cellular dosimetry model to improve the utility of ALI-HBECs for assessing chemical risk. Dosimetry analysis demonstrated absorption of BAP into cells and an increase in Phase 1 and 2 metabolites over time that correlated with regulation of metabolizing enzymes. BAP was cleared from cells by 48 h after exposure, and the primary metabolites generated in ALI-HBECs were BAP-3-phenol, BAP-4,5-dihydrodiol, BAP-7,8-dihydrodiol, BAP-9,10-dihydrodiol, BAP-7,8,9,10-tetrol, BAP-3-phenol-glucuronide, BAP-4,5-dihydrodiol-glucuronide, and BAP-9,10-dihydrodiol-glucuronide. The resulting dosimetry model described BAP and 7,8-dihydrodiol toxicokinetics in ALI-HBECs and suggested active excretion of 7,8-dihydrodiol. Overall, this study demonstrates metabolic competency of ALI-HBECs for BAP metabolism, demonstrates the usefulness of complex in vitro systems for human-relevant toxicity data, and exhibits how in silico models can be utilized for understanding the dosimetry of test compounds to aid in in vitro to human extrapolation of toxicity data for risk assessments.

Benzo[a]pyrene↗

DOE OSTI2026

Economic Incentives for Agrivoltaics Systems with Commodity Crops in the Midwestern United States

Declining costs of photovoltaic (PV) technology and rising market and policy incentives are leading to the growing deployment of PV on cropland in the US Midwest, leading to concerns about the displacement of food and feed crop production. Agrivoltaic (AV) technology enables the dual use of land by co-locating PV energy and crop production, potentially reducing land-use competition with crop production. We develop a benefit-cost analysis framework to compare the net economic returns from AV to those with stand-alone PV and crop production on a representative field and show conditions under which AV can be more profitable for both a solar developer and a farmer. We integrate it with a crop and solar energy model to simulate the performance of various field designs and space and height configurations in AV systems to accommodate soybean production with conventional farm equipment under representative conditions in the US Midwest. We find that an AV system with soybean production is less profitable than PV alone for a solar developer due to the high capital costs of raising panel height, and less profitable for a farmer than leasing land for PV due to its adverse effects of shading on crop yield. We discuss the changes in technology and market prices of solar energy and soybeans that are necessary to make the AV system profitable for solar developers and farmers. We show that AV can worsen rather than mitigate the conflict between food crops and solar energy production in the Midwest.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Bounce-averaged theory in arbitrary multi-well plasmas: solution domains and the graph structure of their connections

Bounce-averaged theories provide a framework for simulating relatively slow processes, such as collisional transport and quasilinear diffusion, by averaging these processes over the fast periodic motions of a particle on a closed orbit. This procedure dramatically increases the characteristic time scale and reduces the dimensionality of the modelled system. The natural coordinates for such calculations are the constants of motion (COM) of the fast particle motion, which by definition do not change during an orbit. However, for sufficiently complicated fields – particularly in the presence of local maxima of the electric potential and magnetic field – the COM are not sufficient to specify the particle trajectory. In such cases, multiple domains in COM space must be used to solve the problem, with boundary conditions enforced between the domains to ensure continuity and particle conservation. Previously, these domains have been imposed by hand, or by recognising local maxima in the fields, limiting the flexibility of bounce-averaged simulations. Here, we present a general set of conditions for identifying consistent domains and the boundary condition connections between the domains, allowing the application of bounce-averaged theories in arbitrarily complicated and dynamically evolving electromagnetic field geometries. We also show how the connections between the domains can be represented by a directed graph, which can help to succinctly represent the trajectory bifurcation structure.

fusion plasma↗

DOE OSTI2026

Raman Spectroscopic In Situ Monitoring of Highly Turbid Media

The ability to run chemical processing more efficiently and cost effectively is a need that spans critical materials recovery and legacy nuclear waste cleanup. Sensors integrated to provide online monitoring are essential to addressing this need by providing near-real time feedback on process conditions, which can improve efficiency, aid in decision making, and reduce the need for grab sample measurements. Optical spectroscopy is well-suited for providing online chemical composition information and has been widely applied in varied chemical systems. However, applications in turbid matrices continue to represent substantial challenges to sensor performance, where absorption or scattering of excitation light can cause significant signal interference. Here, in this study, close-focus Raman probes are investigated for use in turbid media as a way to overcome the signal loss from the scattering of the Raman excitation source. This, paired with advanced data science techniques, allowed for the development of chemometric models for the accurate quantification of several analytes of interest (NO 3 – , NO 2 – , and PO 4 3– ) in highly turbid solutions with solids loadings of up to 20 wt %. This work focuses on offline sample measurement and characterization as an initial step toward the development of online monitoring capabilities. Chemical systems of interest were focused on nuclear waste at the Hanford Site, which represents highly complex matrices that could realize significant processing benefits through the integration of online monitoring.

Felmy, Heather M. [Pacific Northwest National Labo↗

DOE OSTI2025

Complexity Reduction Methods for Large-Scale Spatially Explicit Biofuels Network Design

The size and complexity of energy system optimization models have increased significantly in recent years, driven by the availability of high-resolution spatial data. We present complexity reduction and solution methods that enable us to efficiently represent high-resolution spatial data in the network design of large-scale energy systems. We aim to reduce the size and enhance the computational efficiency of network design models without sacrificing solution accuracy. Specifically, we first present how to aggregate highly granular data into larger resolutions without averaging out their specific properties through a composite-curve-based approach and then develop a method to linearly represent these curves. Second, we utilize a general clustering method to determine groups of geographically proximate biomass fields and establish a single transportation arc for all of them, reducing the number of transportation-related variables while maintaining an accurate representation of the system. Finally, we introduce a two-step algorithm that decomposes large-scale network design problems into two smaller, more manageable subproblems. We demonstrate the application of our methods using a case study of switchgrass-to-biofuels network design in the eight states of the U.S. Midwest, using realistic and highly explicit spatial data.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Benders Decomposition Using Graph Modeling and Multi-Parametric Programming

Benders decomposition is a widely used method for solving large and structured optimization problems, but its performance is affected by the repeated solution of subproblems. We propose a flexible and modular algorithmic framework for accelerating Benders decomposition. Specifically, we express the problem structure by using a graph-theoretic modeling abstraction in which nodes represent optimization subproblems and edges represent connectivity between subproblems. A key innovation of our approach is that we embed multiparametric programming (mp) surrogates for node subproblems, which maps the exact analytical map of the subproblem solution space. The use of mp surrogates allows us to replace subproblem solves with fast look-ups and function evaluations for primal and dual variables during the iterative Benders process. We formally show the equivalence between classical Benders cuts and those derived from the mp solution. We implement our framework in the open-source PlasmoBenders.jl software package. To demonstrate the capabilities of the proposed framework, we apply it to a two-stage stochastic programming problem, which aims to make optimal capacity expansion decisions under market uncertainty. We evaluate both single-cut and multicut variants of Benders decomposition and show that the use of mp surrogates achieves substantial speedups in subproblem solve time, while preserving the convergence guarantees of Benders decomposition. We highlight advantages in solution analysis and interpretability that is enabled by mp critical region tracking; specifically, we show that these reveal how decisions evolve geometrically across the Benders search. Our results aim to demonstrate that combining surrogate modeling with graph modeling offers a promising and extensible foundation for structure-exploiting decomposition. In addition, by decomposing the problem into more tractable subproblems, the proposed approach also aims to overcome scalability issues of mp. Finally, the use of mp surrogates provides a unifying and modular optimization framework that enables the representation of heterogeneous node subproblems as modeling objects with a homogeneous structure.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

Static Subspace Approximation for Random Phase Approximation Correlation Energies: Applications to Materials for Catalysis and Electrochemistry

Modeling complex materials using high-fidelity, ab initio methods at low cost is a fundamental goal for quantum chemical software packages. The GW approximation and random phase approximation (RPA) provide a unified description of both electronic structure and total energies using the same physics in a many-body perturbative approach that can be more accurate than generalized-gradient density functional theory (DFT) methods. However, GW/RPA implementations have historically been limited to either specific materials classes or application toward small chemical systems. Here, the static subspace approximation allows for reduced cost full-frequency GW/RPA calculations and has previously been benchmarked thoroughly for GW calculations. Here, we describe our approach to including partial occupations of electronic orbitals in full-frequency GW and RPA calculations for the study of electrocatalysts. We benchmarked RPA total energy calculations using the subspace approximation across a diverse test suite of materials for a variety of computational parameters. The benchmarking quantifies the impact of different extrapolation procedures for representing the static polarizability at infinite screened cutoff, and shows that using screened cutoffs above 20-25 Ryd result in diminishing accuracy returns for predicting RPA total energies. Additionally, for moderately sized electrocatalytic models, 2-3 times fewer computational resources are used to compute RPA total energies by representing the static polarizability with 20-30% of the static subspace basis, with an error of approximately 0.01 eV or better in RPA adsorption energy calculations. Finally, we show that for these electrochemical models RPA can shift DFT adsorption energy shifts by up to 0.5 eV and that GW can frequently shift DFT eigenvalues of surface and adsorbate states by approximately 0.5-1 eV.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

Understanding Differences in Water Adsorption Isotherms: Structural Variations, Force Fields, and Monte Carlo Simulation Approaches

Accurate prediction of water adsorption in micro- and mesoporous materials with hydrophobic pores is essential for the design and characterization of advanced adsorbent materials for separation and energy applications. Here, we assess the reproducibility and consistency of water adsorption isotherms in two microporous all-silica MFI zeolite structures (MFI-K and MFI-O) using two different zeolite force fields and three simulation approaches: grand canonical Monte Carlo (GCMC), Gibbs ensemble Monte Carlo (GEMC), and transition matrix Monte Carlo (TMMC). We demonstrate that consistent treatment of the bulk fluid phase in GCMC and TMMC simulations is critical for reconciling isotherms across methods, and we construct simulation-based equations of state for the TIP4P water model to enable rigorous fugacity-to-pressure conversions. Large shifts in the isotherms are observed for two zeolite force fields developed using different parametrization strategies, with the GCS force field representing implicitly a defect-containing all-silica zeolite, whereas the TraPPE-zeo force field accurately represents an essentially defect-free all-silica zeolite. While water in the van Koningsveld structure of MFI exhibits a first-order phase transition and condensation-like step for adsorption near room temperature, water in the Olson structure of MFI displays continuous adsorption, attributed to differences in the adsorption free energy landscapes. Structural analysis reveals that small geometric variations, particularly Si–O–Si bond angles near the strongest adsorption sites, lead to these substantial differences in adsorption behavior. Furthermore, our results highlight the sensitivity of simulated water adsorption isotherms in hydrophobic frameworks to seemingly small differences in the framework structures, force field parametrization, and simulation approaches.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Introducing Molecular Hypernetworks for Discovery in Multidimensional Metabolomics Data

Orthogonal separations of data from high-resolution mass spectrometry can provide insight into sample composition and address challenges of complete annotation of molecules in untargeted metabolomics. “Molecular networks” (MNs), as used in the Global Natural Products Social Molecular Networking platform, are a prominent strategy for exploring and visualizing molecular relationships and improving annotation. MNs are mathematical graphs showing the relationships between measured multidimensional data features. MNs also show promise for using network science algorithms to automatically identify targets for annotation candidates and to dereplicate features associated with a single molecular identity. Here, this paper introduces “molecular hypernetworks” (MHNs) as more complex MN models able to natively represent multiway relationships among observations. Compared to MNs, MHNs can more parsimoniously represent the inherent complexity present among groups of observations, initially supporting improved exploratory data analysis and visualization. MHNs also promise to increase confidence in annotation propagation, for both human and analytical processing. We first illustrate MHNs with simple examples, and build them from liquid chromatography- and ion mobility spectrometry-separated MS data. We then describe a method to construct MHNs directly from existing MNs as their “clique reconstructions”, demonstrating their utility by comparing examples of previously published graph-based MNs to their respective MHNs.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

Thermophysical Properties of NaCl–UCl 3 –PuCl 3 Molten Salts: A Combined Computational and Experimental Study

Actinide-bearing molten salts for use as fuels are an essential part of next generation molten salt reactors. Yet, numerous multicomponent salt mixtures are underdeveloped or have not been investigated. Here, this study, based on a combination of experimental and modeling techniques, is dedicated to determining and understanding a variety of properties of the ternary system of NaCl–UCl 3 –PuCl 3 , which represents a scenario for burnup of NaCl–UCl 3 fuel, at two compositions (∼10 and 5 mol % PuCl 3 in eutectic NaCl–UCl 3 pseudobinary) and a range of temperatures. Evaluation of the heat flow and mass loss data showed the 0.61NaCl–0.30UCl 3 –0.09PuCl 3 salt had a melting temperature of 551 ± 5 °C. Two additional thermal effects were observed occurring at approximately 410 and 494 °C. The transition occurring at 410 °C may be due to the presence of oxide in the salt. Extrapolation of thermodynamic data indicates the transition occurring at 494 °C is due to the formation of a liquid phase. Experimental testing determined the density of this system is a linear function of temperature and can be represented by the equation ρ = 4.014–0.0010T(°C), R 2 = 0.992. Additionally, by using atomistic modeling, we found that increasing the PuCl 3 content from 5 to 10 mol % led to the formation of larger Pu 3+ clusters and slower transport of ions.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Dithieno[3,2-c:3′,2′‑ h ][2,6]naphthyridine-4,9(5H,10H)-dione-Based Conjugated Polymers for High Stable n‑Type Organic Electrochemical Transistors

Amide/imide-based conjugated polymers have been utilized as n-type OECT materials and have demonstrated promising device performance. However, their performance remains insufficient in terms of both efficiency and stability, which limits their practical applications. The development of conjugated polymers based on amide and imide groups represents a promising approach to address this issue. Here, in this study, we introduced dithieno[3,2-c:3′,2′-h][2,6]naphthyridine-4,9(5H,10H)-dione (TVTDA) into the design of the OECT materials for the first time. By copolymerizing it with (E)-2,2′-(ethene-1,2-diyl)bis(thiophene-3-carbonitrile), we prepared two polymers, TVTDA-2CNTVT-ST and TVTDA-2CNTVT-BR, which contain linear or branched ethylene glycol side chains, respectively. OECT devices based on these polymers demonstrate n-type charge transport characteristics, achieving promising μC* values of 7.17 and 26.5 F cm –1 V –1 s –1 for TVTDA-2CNTVT-ST and TVTDA-2CNTVT-BR, respectively. The higher electron mobility and μC* of TVTDA-2CNTVT-BR can be attributed to its mixed edge-on and face-on stacking mode, larger crystalline coherence length, and larger domain size in the thin film. To our delight, the OECT devices based on both polymers exhibit good operational stability after operating in an aqueous solution for 2000 s, with current retention rates exceeding 93%, representing the high level among the OECT devices based on amide/imide-conjugated polymers. Our study demonstrates that the TVTDA unit holds great potential for constructing high-performance n-type OECT materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Atomic Structural Features of Stacking Faults and Domain Connections in the Li- and Mn-Rich Cathode

Li- and Mn-rich layered oxides (LMRs), a class of earth-abundant materials for rechargeable Li-ion battery cathodes, crystallize into layered structures of two different symmetries: C2/m represented by Li 2 MnO 3 and R$\overline{3}$m represented by LiMn 0.5 Ni 0.5 O 2 . Fundamental questions about how the C2/m and R$\overline{3}$m domains spatially correlate within the same oxide grain and how the C2/m stacking faults arrange themselves when this happens still remain. Here, by using integrated differential phase contrast imaging in scanning transmission electron microscopy (STEM-iDPC), we probe the structural and compositional details of a prototypical, cobalt-free LMR material, 0.3Li 2 MnO 3 •0.7LiMn 0.5 Ni 0.5 O 2 (Li 1.13 Mn 0.57 Ni 0.3 O 2 ). The connection between the C2/m and R$\overline{3}$m domains is found to be abrupt, facilitated by the small lattice mismatch between the two structures. Stacking faults in the C2/m domains feature atomic plane shifting that accommodates stacking sequence changes, which explains why the stacking faults form in a random manner. Furthermore, a local disordering mechanism was identified to correlate with the C2/m stacking faults. Chemically, it is found that Ni coexists with Mn at the transition metal sites within the nominal Li 2 MnO 3 domain. As a result, this study demonstrates that STEM-iDPC is a very useful tool for capturing all the elements in a single image, revealing atomic details on domain connections and stacking faults in the LMRs.

Li-rich and Mn-rich oxides↗

DOE OSTI2025

Cyclometallated Co(III) Complexes with Lowest-Energy Charge Transfer Excited States Accessible with Visible Light

The Co(III) complexes, cis-[Co(ppy) 2 (L)]PF 6 , where ppy = 2-phenylpyridine and L = bpy (2,2′-bipyridine; 1), phen (1,10-phenanthroline; 2), and DAP (1,12-diazaperylene; 3), are reported and their photophysical properties were investigated to evaluate their potential as sensitizers for applications that include solar energy conversion schemes and photoredox catalysis. Calculations show that cyclometallation in the cis-[Co(ppy) 2 (L)]PF 6 series affords strong Co(dπ)/ppy(π) orbital interactions that result in a Co/ppy(π*) highest occupied molecular orbital (HOMO) and a lowest unoccupied molecular orbital (LUMO) localized on the diimine ligand, L(π*). Complexes 1–3 exhibit relatively invariant oxidation potentials, whereas the reduction event is dependent on the identity of the diimine ligand, L, consistent with the theoretical predictions. For 3 a broad Co/ppy(π*) → L(π*) metal/ligand-to-ligand charge transfer (ML-LCT) absorption band is observed in CH 3 CN with a maxima at 507 nm, extending beyond 600 nm. Upon excitation of the 1ML-LCT transition, transient absorption features consistent with the population of a 3 ML-LCT excited state with lifetimes, τ, of 3.0 ps, 4.6 and 42 ps for 1, 2 and 3 in CH 3 CN respectively are observed. Upon irradiation with 505 nm, 3 is able to reduce methyl viologen (MV 2+ ), an electron acceptor commonly in photocatalytic schemes. Here, to our knowledge, 3 represents the first heteroleptic molecular Co(III) complex that combines cyclometallation with a diimine ligand with lowest-lying metal-to-ligand charge transfer excited states able to undergo photoinduced charge transfer with low-energy green light. As such, the structural design of 3 represents an important step toward d6 photosensitizers based on earth abundant metals.

Energy↗

DOE OSTI2024

Envisioning U.S. Climate Predictions and Projections to Meet New Challenges

In the face of a changing climate, the understanding, predictions, and projections of natural and human systems are increasingly crucial to prepare and cope with extremes and cascading hazards, determine unexpected feedbacks and potential tipping points, inform long-term adaptation strategies, and guide mitigation approaches. Increasingly complex socio-economic systems require enhanced predictive information to support advanced practices. Such new predictive challenges drive the need to fully capitalize on ambitious scientific and technological opportunities. These include the unrealized potential for very high-resolution modeling of global-to-local Earth system processes across timescales, reduction of model biases, enhanced integration of human systems and the Earth Systems, better quantification of predictability and uncertainties; expedited science-to-service pathways, and co-production of actionable information with stakeholders. Enabling technological opportunities include exascale computing, advanced data storage, novel observations and powerful data analytics, including artificial intelligence and machine learning. Looking to generate community discussions on how to accelerate progress on U.S. climate predictions and projections, representatives of Federally-funded U.S. modeling groups outline here perspectives on a six-pillar national approach grounded in climate science that builds on the strengths of the U.S. modeling community and agency goals. This calls for an unprecedented level of coordination to capitalize on transformative opportunities, augmenting and complementing current modeling center capabilities and plans to support agency missions. Tangible outcomes include projections with horizontal spatial resolutions finer than 10 km, representing extremes and associated risks in greater detail, reduced model errors, better predictability estimates, and more customized projections to support next generation climate services.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Large Ensemble Exploration of Global Energy Transitions Under National Emissions Pledges

Global climate goals require a transition to a deeply decarbonized energy system. Meeting the objectives of the Paris Agreement through countries' nationally determined contributions and long-term strategies represents a complex problem with consequences across multiple systems shrouded by deep uncertainty. Robust, large-ensemble methods and analyses mapping a wide range of possible future states of the world are needed to help policymakers design effective strategies to meet emissions reduction goals. This study contributes a scenario discovery analysis applied to a large ensemble of 5,760 model realizations generated using the Global Change Analysis Model. Eleven energy-related uncertainties are systematically varied, representing national mitigation pledges, institutional factors, and techno-economic parameters, among others. The resulting ensemble maps how uncertainties impact common energy system metrics used to characterize national and global pathways toward deep decarbonization. Results show globally consistent but regionally variable energy transitions as measured by multiple metrics, including electricity costs and stranded assets. Larger economies and developing regions experience more severe economic outcomes across a broad sampling of uncertainty. The scale of CO 2 removal globally determines how much the energy system can continue to emit, but the relative role of different CO 2 removal options in meeting decarbonization goals varies across regions. Previous studies characterizing uncertainty have typically focused on a few scenarios, and other large-ensemble work has not (to our knowledge) combined this framework with national emissions pledges or institutional factors. Our results underscore the value of large-ensemble scenario discovery for decision support as countries begin to design strategies to meet their goals.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Co‐Evolution of Specific Stiffness and Permeability of Rock Fractures Offset in Shear

Abstract Fractures and faults represent planes of weakness and compliance in rock masses that serve as focal points for both microearthquakes and fluid transport, with seismicity and permeability evolution closely linked. Contact stiffness is highly stress‐sensitive and directly influences permeability. We explore the co‐evolution of specific stiffness and permeability of rough fractures under normal stress and shear offset using numerical simulations. Individual rough fractures are represented by variable amplitude (Root mean square) and wavelength ( λ ) using a granular mechanics model. Contacting rough surfaces are mated, offset in shear, and then compacted in displacement mode. The compacting fractures generate stress‐dependent changes in contact porosity, which govern both permeability and stiffness evolution. We establish a universal dimensionless relationship linking specific stiffness and permeability that inherently incorporates the effects of surface roughness, shear offset, and microcracking. The observed cracking effect—where local stress redistribution and pressure‐driven microcrack propagation dynamically alter the aperture field—introduces a nonlinear permeability response at high stress. Increased roughness amplitude and larger shear offsets reduce stiffness while dampening permeability sensitivity to stress, demonstrating a strong interplay between surface texture and hydro‐mechanical behavior. While the model captures this behavior effectively, deviations emerge at very low porosities due to extreme aperture sensitivity in this limit.

He, Xinxin [Energy and Mineral Engineering Pennsyl↗

DOE OSTI2024

Misaligned Wind‐Waves Behind Atmospheric Cold Fronts

Abstract Atmospheric fronts embedded in extratropical cyclones are high‐impact weather phenomena, contributing significantly to mid‐latitude winter precipitation. The three vital characteristics of the atmospheric fronts, high wind speeds, abrupt change in wind direction, and rapid translation, force the induced surface waves to be misaligned with winds exclusively behind the cold fronts. The effects of the misaligned waves under atmospheric cold fronts on air‐sea fluxes remain undocumented. Using the multi‐year in situ near‐surface observations and direct covariance flux measurements from the Pioneer Array off the coast of New England, we find that the majority of the passing cold fronts generate misaligned waves behind the cold front. Once generated, the waves remain misaligned, on average, for about 8 hr. The parameterized effect of misaligned waves in a fully coupled model significantly increases the roughness length (185%), drag coefficient (19%), and air‐sea momentum flux (11%). The increased surface drag reduces the wind speeds in the surface layer. The upward turbulent heat flux is weakly decreased by the misaligned waves because of the decrease in temperature and humidity scaling parameters being greater than the increase in friction velocity. The misaligned wave effect is not accurately represented in a commonly used wave‐based bulk flux algorithm. Yet, considering this effect in the current formulation improves the overall accuracy of parameterized momentum flux estimates. The results imply that better representing a directional wind‐wave coupling in the bulk formula of the numerical models may help improve the air‐sea interaction simulations under the passing atmospheric fronts in the mid‐latitudes.

Oceanography↗

DOE OSTI2025

Regional and Temporal Variability of Atmospheric River Seasonality: Influences of Detection Algorithms and Moisture Transport Dynamics

Abstract Understanding the regional and temporal variability of atmospheric river (AR) seasonality is crucial for preparedness and mitigation of extreme events. While ARs were thought to peak in winter, recent research shows they exhibit region‐specific seasonality and are heavily influenced by the chosen detection algorithm. This study examines the link between the year‐to‐year consistency of peak‐AR activity to the presence of a dominant seasonal pattern, considering both location and algorithm choice. Regions are categorized by their temporal characteristics: consistent patterns (e.g., East Asia), patterns with occasional outliers (e.g., British Columbia coast), and regions lacking a clear dominant peak season (e.g., South Atlantic, parts of Australia). Hence, not all regions display a consistent seasonal cycle of AR activity. This study quantifies the extent to which a region experiences a dominant peak season of AR activity (or lacks one) and offers insights to enhance decision‐making in water management, natural hazard preparedness, and forecasting. Furthermore, given our finding that detection algorithms influence the peak season of AR activity, we also examine two diagnostic variables representative of moisture transport to corroborate our results. Integrated vapor transport, which captures meridional and zonal moisture transport, and Moist Wave Activity, representing moisture intrusions from lower to higher latitudes, are examined. Our analysis indicates that inconsistencies in the seasonal cycle of AR activity are not solely due to discrepancies in detection algorithms but also arise from changes in moisture transport. Plain Language Summary Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are critical weather phenomena that can cause extreme events like heavy rainfall and flooding. Understanding when and where ARs are most likely to occur throughout the year is essential for preparing and responding to these events. Traditionally, ARs were thought to peak in winter, but recent studies show this varies by region. Our study helps address the challenge decision‐makers face in anticipating and preparing for AR events by providing insights into the consistency of peak seasonal patterns across different areas. Some regions, like East Asia, and the British Columbia coast, show a consistent peak season, while others, like the South Atlantic and parts of Australia, have significant year‐to‐year variations, making it hard to identify a dominant season. To better understand these changes over time, the study also examines how moisture moves in the atmosphere, using Integrated Vapor Transport (which looks at moisture movement in various directions) and Moist Wave Activity (which tracks moisture shifts from lower to higher latitudes). The findings suggest that inconsistencies in AR patterns are due not only to detection methods but also due to changes in moisture transport. Key Points The peak season of atmospheric river activity can change depending on the year in some areas Interannual variations in the peak season can make identifying a dominant season challenging for some regions Frequent shifts in peak season across years reflect inconsistencies tied to detection algorithms and to underlying dynamics

Kamnani, Diya↗