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DOE OSTI2024

Design and modeling of indirectly driven magnetized implosions on the NIF

The use of magnetic fields to improve the performance of hohlraum-driven implosions on the National Ignition Facility (NIF) is discussed. The focus is on magnetically insulated inertial confinement fusion, where the primary field effect is to reduce electron-thermal and alpha-particle loss from the compressed hotspot (magnetic pressure is of secondary importance). We summarize the requirements to achieve this state. The design of recent NIF magnetized hohlraum experiments is presented. These are close to earlier shots in the three-shock, high-adiabat (BigFoot) campaign, subject to the constraints that magnetized NIF targets must be fielded at room-temperature, and use ≲1 MJ of laser energy to avoid the risk of optics damage from stimulated Brillouin scattering. We present results from the original magnetized hohlraum platform, as well as a later variant that gives a higher hotspot temperature. In both platforms, imposed fields (at the capsule center) of up to 28 T increase the fusion yield and hotspot temperature. Integrated radiation-magneto-hydrodynamic modeling with the Lasnex code of these shots is shown, where laser power multipliers and a saturation clamp on cross-beam energy transfer are developed to match the time of peak capsule emission and the P2 Legendre moment of the hotspot x-ray image. The resulting fusion yield and ion temperature agree decently with the measured relative effects of the field, although the absolute simulated yields are higher than the data by 2.0−2.7×. The tuned parameters and yield discrepancy are comparable for experiments with and without an imposed field, indicating the model adequately captures the field effects. Self-generated and imposed fields are added sequentially to simulations of one BigFoot NIF shot to understand how they alter target dynamics.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Pulsed-Power Innovations for Next-Generation, High-Current Drivers

There are proposals to build larger high-current drivers to be used for high-energy-density physics (HEDP), inertial confinement fusion (ICF), radiation effects testing, and basic science. Drivers significantly larger than the Z Machine at Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM, USA, encounter increasing difficulties in water power flow, insulator performance, and vacuum power flow. The physics requirements of imploding loads limit a designer’s flexibility in choosing machine parameters, such as current rise time, driving impedance, and total inductance. This article enumerates these physics constraints and shows how they impact driver design. Here, we conclude that advances in pulsed-power capabilities are needed to control risk and to build a cost-effective driver at peak currents of ~60 MA.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

NASA NTRS1990

A satellite-based personal communication system for the 21st century

Interest in personal communications (PCOMM) has been stimulated by recent developments in satellite and terrestrial mobile communications. A personal access satellite system (PASS) concept was developed at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) which has many attractive user features, including service diversity and a handheld terminal. Significant technical challenges addressed in formulating the PASS space and ground segments are discussed. PASS system concept and basic design features, high risk enabling technologies, an optimized multiple access scheme, alternative antenna coverage concepts, the use of non-geostationary orbits, user terminal radiation constraints, and user terminal frequency reference are covered.

Sue, Miles K.↗

NASA NTRS2003

The Swift Project Contamination Control Program: A Case study of Balancing Cost, Schedule and Risk

The Swift Observatory will be launched in early 2004 to examine the dynamic process of gamma ray burst (GRB) events. The multi-wavelength Observatory will study the GRB afterglow characteristics, which will help to answer fundamental questions about both the structure and the evolution of the universe. The Swift Observatory Contamination Control Program has been developed to aid in ensuring the success of the on-orbit performance of two of the primary instruments: the Ultraviolet and Optical Telescope (UVOT) and the X-Ray Telescope (XRT). During the design phase of the Observatory, the contamination control program evolved and trade studies were performed to assess the risk of contaminating the sensitive UVOT and XRT optics during both pre-launch testing and on-orbit operations, within the constraints of the overall program cost and schedule.

Hansen, Patricia A.↗

NASA NTRS2004

The Swift Project Contamination Control Program: A Case Study of Balancing Cost, Schedule and Risk

Hansen, Patricia A.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Exploration Laboratory Analysis - ARC

The Exploration Laboratory Analysis (ELA) project supports the Exploration Medical Capability (ExMC) risk, Risk of Inability to Adequately Treat an Ill or Injured Crew Member, and ExMC Gap 4.05: Lack of minimally invasive in-flight laboratory capabilities with limited consumables required for diagnosing identified Exploration Medical Conditions. To mitigate this risk, the availability of inflight laboratory analysis instrumentation has been identified as an essential capability in future exploration missions. Mission architecture poses constraints on equipment and procedures that will be available to treat evidence-based medical conditions according to the Space Medicine Exploration Medical Conditions List (SMEMCL). The SMEMCL provided diagnosis and treatment for the evidence-based medical conditions and hence, a basis for developing ELA functional requirements.

Krihak, Michael K.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Exploration Laboratory Analysis FY13

The Exploration Laboratory Analysis (ELA) project supports the Exploration Medical Capability (ExMC) risk, which is stated as the Risk of Inability to Adequately Treat an Ill or Injured Crew Member, and ExMC Gap 4.05: Lack of minimally invasive in-flight laboratory capabilities with limited consumables required for diagnosing identified Exploration Medical Conditions. To mitigate this risk, the availability of inflight laboratory analysis instrumentation has been identified as an essential capability in future exploration missions. Mission architecture poses constraints on equipment and procedures that will be available to treat evidence-based medical conditions according to the Space Medicine Exploration Medical Conditions List (SMEMCL), and to perform human research studies on the International Space Station (ISS) that are supported by the Human Health and Countermeasures (HHC) element. Since there are significant similarities in the research and medical operational requirements, ELA hardware development has emerged as a joint effort between ExMC and HHC. In 2012, four significant accomplishments were achieved towards the development of exploration laboratory analysis for medical diagnostics. These achievements included (i) the development of high priority analytes for research and medical operations, (ii) the development of Level 1 functional requirements and concept of operations documentation, (iii) the selection and head-to-head competition of in-flight laboratory analysis instrumentation, and (iv) the phase one completion of the Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) projects under the topic Smart Phone Driven Blood-Based Diagnostics. To utilize resources efficiently, the associated documentation and advanced technologies were integrated into a single ELA plan that encompasses ExMC and HHC development efforts. The requirements and high priority analytes was used in the selection of the four in-flight laboratory analysis performers. Based upon the competition results, a down select process will be performed in the upcoming year. Looking ahead, this unified effort has positioned each element for an in-flight lab analysis demonstration of select diagnostics measurements in the 2015 timeframe.

Krihak, Michael↗

NASA NTRS2013

A Lean, Fast Mars Round-trip Mission Architecture: Using Current Technologies for a Human Mission in the 2030s

We present a lean fast-transfer architecture concept for a first human mission to Mars that utilizes current technologies and two pivotal parameters: an end-to-end Mars mission duration of approximately one year, and a deep space habitat of approximately 50 metric tons. These parameters were formulated by a 2012 deep space habitat study conducted at the NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC) that focused on a subset of recognized high- engineering-risk factors that may otherwise limit space travel to destinations such as Mars or near-Earth asteroid (NEA)s. With these constraints, we model and promote Mars mission opportunities in the 2030s enabled by a combination of on-orbit staging, mission element pre-positioning, and unique round-trip trajectories identified by state-of-the-art astrodynamics algorithms.

Bailey, Lora↗

DOE OSTI2024

Unlocking the Path to Decarbonized Building Thermal Systems: Strategies for Designers and Contractors: Preprint

The design and construction community plays a pivotal role in facilitating the transition to decarbonized thermal systems that maintain human comfort while reducing building emissions. Through the U.S. Department of Energy Better Buildings initiative's Design and Construction Allies, a cohort of leading architecture, engineering, and construction firms have identified top ranked barriers that designers and contractors face when implementing solutions for building owners. These barriers to decarbonizing thermal - especially heating - systems include equipment availability; electrical capacity constraints; space allocations; complex system configurations; and lack of experience in designing, installing, and maintaining heat pumps. These impediments significantly amplify the risk and financial burden associated with the adoption of decarbonized solutions. The barriers also decrease the likelihood that designers, contractors, and owners will adopt decarbonization strategies without clear plans and guidance on how to implement these solutions, mitigate risk, and overcome the identified barriers. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory, the Design and Construction Allies, and the American Society of Heating, Refrigerating, and Air-Conditioning Engineers have developed "how to" thermal decarbonization guidance based on best practices. The subjects covered range from the role of energy efficiency in facilitating decarbonized heating solutions to strategies for decarbonizing new and existing heating, ventilating, and air-conditioning systems. The focus is on overcoming barriers so that energy-efficient, electrified buildings - both new and retrofit - become the industry standard. This paper outlines 1) the method used to collect and organize this guidance, 2) industry barriers to decarbonization, and 3) decarbonization techniques that have broad market applicability.

building heating↗

DOE OSTI2025

Improving leaf spring phenology modelling for temperate tree species: An integration of the Farquhar–Medlyn photosynthesis model with the optimality‐based approach

Spring leaf phenology in temperate tree species is highly sensitive to climate change and significantly affects plant photosynthetic performance, resource utilization, competition and trophic interactions, thereby impacting various ecosystem functions. Although optimality-based (OPT) approaches for modelling spring phenology are increasingly recognized, the optimal representation of the underlying principle (balancing photosynthesis gains with chilling risks) remains controversial. Here, we integrated a coupled Farquhar–Medlyn photosynthesis model into an existing OPT model, and termed the resulting model R-OPT, and evaluated its performance using the PEP725 dataset, which includes 409,144 site-species-year records from across Europe. Our results show that R-OPT outperforms both the default OPT and non-optimality-based models (e.g. the chilling-forcing trade-off and growing degree day models). This improved performance is consistent within and across five focal tree species but varies by region: R-OPT excels in lowland, moist environments but is less effective in high-altitude, cold, and dry areas, possibly due to an incomplete representation of environmental constraints on photosynthetic carbon gain in these regions. Our research advances leaf spring phenology modelling by emphasizing an optimality principle that balances photosynthetic carbon gain with chilling risk, improving the representation of plant photosynthesis processes and enhancing understanding of environmental factors influencing phenology in the context of climate change.

coupled Farquhar–Medlyn photosynthesis model↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Setting the Bar for the Replacement of the Probability of Collision Metric

To date, satellite conjunction assessment (CA) risk analysis has largely embraced the probability of collision (Pc) as the omnibus metric to evaluate collision likelihood, and its use in such assessments has mostly been straightforward: at the point at which a conjunction mitigation decision is required, the calculated Pc is compared to a threshold; and if the calculated Pc exceeds that threshold, then a mitigation action is warranted. With only minor variation, this approach is employed by major CA risk assessment centers (e.g., NASA, EUSST, CNES, JAXA) and is advanced as the preferred method in the published CA best practices handbooks. Despite this near unanimity of operational practice, there is a major strain of secondary literature critical of the Pc and willing to propose alternatives. Alfano (2005) pointed out the ability of the Pc to underrepresent the risk in certain situations and counselled a maximum Pc construct. Carpenter (2017, 2019) reiterated this criticism and proposed using instead a confidence interval on the miss distance. Balch et al. (2019) identified what they argued was a defect in the entire Bayesian Pc construct and believed that the use of a more conservative methodology based on covariance ellipsoid overlap was necessary. Delande (2022) introduced the framework of collision “plausibility” to the risk assessment process and sketched out how this might be used operationally. Elkantassi (2022) published a full development of the miss distance confidence interval approach and applied it to several worked examples. While these different approaches to collision risk assessment do differ in their details, they all converge on two central points: first, the Pc’s failure to give an adequate expression of the risk in dilution region situations is a fatal flaw; and second, a conjunction should be presumed risky and in need of mitigation until the evidence of the situation can establish otherwise. These criticisms, if correct, would counsel a number of modifications to current CA operational practice; as such, they force a re-examination of fundamental aspects of the CA problem, including the following: 1. Is the CA risk assessment a probability problem, a statistics problem, or something else? 2. If it is a statistics problem, does it lend itself naturally to a hypothesis test construction? 3. If it can be construed as a hypothesis test, what form should the null hypothesis take, to wit: what constraints exist on the choice of the null hypothesis, what selections are in best alignment with all of the attendant parameters of the problem, and what is implied philosophically by different choices? 4. What are the implications of using the different proposed risk assessment parameters for CA? This question should be answered both in determining how frequently the dilution region situation cited by the critics of the Pc actually appears in an operationally significant manner and the missed detection and false alarm rates of all of the proposed risk assessment metrics, compared both to the Pc and to each other. This paper explores and offers preliminary answers to the above questions, presenting a researched treatment of the philosophical nature of the CA problem and the null hypothesis choice that achieves the greatest consistency with all of the different aspects of operational CA conduct. It then profiles all of the different proposed risk assessment metrics enumerated in the earlier paragraph against an extremely large database of conjunction events at both the 550km and 700km altitudes. The combination of the philosophical exploration of the CA problem and the results of the profiling activity articulates what a risk assessment metric will need to demonstrate, in terms of both innate construction and performance, in order to be a true competitor to the Pc.

conjunction assessment↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Root Cause Analysis of the Data Refinement Process – Medical Conditions Capability Resource Tables

The medical system for spaceflight thus far has been designed to support missions in low earth orbit (LEO). Crew capabilities are limited and heavily dependent on the team of medical support staff at Mission Control Center (MCC) to guide diagnosis and management. However, missions to the Moon and Mars will suffer from several constraints that will make this ground support focused approach to care ineffective. In order to update and modify medical system design, NASA has relied on Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) modeling to mitigate medical risk through trade space analysis. Specifically, capability resource tables (CRT’s) were developed to create a dataset of resources required to manage a list of accepted medical conditions significant in exploration spaceflight. With 120 conditions, this dataset contained hundreds of capabilities and thousands of resources with tens of thousands of cells of data. Initially these tables were built in excel for high throughput during development, but ultimately had to be transferred, managed, and modified into the Evidence Library database for modeling purposes. The process of collating and reviewing the Evidence Library revealed numerous errors in the dataset that had to be corrected through iterative changes. Several error types emerged during this process and can be broken into specific classifications defined as “input”, “transcription”, “structural”, “branching”, and “information”. In reviewing these error types through the root cause analysis (RCA) approach, we were able to identify the contributors to these errors which included single data review points, changing product end goals, limited software selection, time constraints and several others. By reviewing and evaluating the underlying causes we can provide possible system improvements that can be implemented for current and future data management in PRA model inputs.

A. Anderson↗

NASA NTRS2008

Validation of Procedures for Monitoring Crewmember Immune Function

There is ample evidence to suggest that space flight leads to immune system dysregulation. This may be a result of microgravity, confinement, physiological stress, radiation, environment or other mission-associated factors. The clinical risk (if any) from prolonged immune dysregulation during exploration-class space flight has not yet been determined, but may include increased incidence of infection, allergy, hypersensitivity, hematological malignancy or altered wound healing. Each of the clinical events resulting from immune dysfunction has the potential to impact mission critical objectives during exploration-class missions. To date, precious little in-flight immune data has been generated to assess this phenomenon. The majority of recent flight immune studies have been post-flight assessments, which may not accurately reflect the in-flight status of immunity as it resolves over prolonged flight. There are no procedures currently in place to monitor immune function or its effect on crew health. The objective of this Supplemental Medical Objective (SMO) is to develop and validate an immune monitoring strategy consistent with operational flight requirements and constraints. This SMO will assess immunity, latent viral reactivation and physiological stress during both short and long duration flights. Upon completion, it is expected that any clinical risks resulting from the adverse effects of space flight on the human immune system will have been determined. In addition, a flight-compatible immune monitoring strategy will have been developed with which countermeasures validation could be performed. This study will determine, to the best level allowed by current technology, the in-flight status of crewmembers' immune systems. The in-flight samples will allow a distinction between legitimate in-flight alterations and the physiological stresses of landing and readaptation which are believed to alter R+0 assessments. The overall status of the immune system during flight (activation, deficiency, dysregulation) and the response of the immune system to specific latent virus reactivation (known to occur during space flight) will be thoroughly assessed. The first in-flight activity for integrated immunity very recently occurred during the STS-120 Space Shuttle mission. The protocols functioned well from a technical perspective, and accurate in-flight data was obtained from 1 Shuttle and 2 ISS crewmembers. Crew participation rates for the study continue to be robust.

Crucian, Brian↗

NASA NTRS1995

The role of small missions in planetary and lunar exploration

The Space Studies Board of the National Research Council charged its Committee on Planetary and Lunar Exploration (COMPLEX) to (1) examine the degree to which small missions, such as those fitting within the constraints of the Discovery program, can achieve priority objectives in the lunar and planetary sciences; (2) determine those characteristics, such as level of risk, flight rate, target mix, university involvement, technology development, management structure and procedures, and so on, that could allow a successful program; (3) assess issues, such as instrument selection, mission operations, data analysis, and data archiving, to ensure the greatest scientific return from a particular mission, given a rapid deployment schedule and a tightly constrained budget; and (4) review past programmatic attempts to establish small planetary science mission lines, including the Planetary Observers and Planetary Explorers, and consider the impact management practices have had on such programs. A series of small missions presents the planetary science community with the opportunity to expand the scope of its activities and to develop the potential and inventiveness of its members in ways not possible within the confines of large, traditional programs. COMPLEX also realized that a program of small planetary missions was, in and of itself, incapable of meeting all of the prime objectives contained in its report 'An Integrated Strategy for the Planetary Sciences: 1995-2010.' Recommendations are provided for the small planetary missions to fulfill their promise.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS2013

A Proposal for A Lean, Fast Mars Round-Trip Mission Architecture: Using Current Technologies for A Human Mission to Mars In The 2030s

We present a lean-minded, fast-transfer mission strategy and architecture concept for a first human mission to Mars that deliberately utilizes a current-technology-favored approach by means of introducing and quantitatively dening two pivotal parameters: 1) an end-to-end Mars mission duration of approximately one year, and 2) a deep space habitat of approximately 4050 metric tons. These parameters are identified and introduced by a 2012 deep space habitat study conducted at the NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC) that focused on a subset of recognized high-engineering-risk factors that may otherwise inhibit or encumber remote space travel to destinations such as Mars or near-Earth asteroids (NEAs). Additional constraints in the study favoring current technology and a lean-minded (very short) surface stay on Mars are shown to offer such Mars mission opportunities in the 2030s, enabled by a combination of on-orbit staging, mission element pre-positioning, and unique round-trip trajectories identied by state-of-the-art astrodynamics algorithms.

Architecture↗

NASA NTRS1994

Mars Sample Return: A Low Cost, Direct and Minimum Risk Design

Current NASA strategy for Mars exploration is seeking simpler, cheaper, and more reliable missions to Mars. This requirement has left virtually all previously proposed Mars Sample Return (MSR) missions as economically untenable. The MSR mission proposed in this paper represents an economical, back-to-basics approach of mission design by leveraging interplanetary trajectory design and limited surface science for shorter mission duration, advanced propulsion and thermal protection systems for mass reduction and simplified mission operations for high reliability. As a result, the proposed concept, called the Fast, Mini, Direct Mars Sample Return (FMD-MSR) mission represents the cheapest and fastest class of missions that could return a 0.5 kg sample from the surface of Mars to Earth with a total mission duration of less than 1.5 Earth years. The constraints require an aggressive mission design that dictates the use of advanced storable liquid propulsion systems and advanced TPS materials to minimize aeroshell mass. The mission does not have the high risk operations of other MSR missions such as orbit rendezvous at Mars, propulsive insertion at Mars, rover operations on the surface, and sample transfer. This paper details the key mission elements for such a mission and presents a feasible and cost effective design.

Wercinski, Paul F.↗

NASA NTRS2012

A Briefing on Metrics and Risks for Autonomous Decision-Making in Aerospace Applications

Significant technology advances will enable future aerospace systems to safely and reliably make decisions autonomously, or without human interaction. The decision-making may result in actions that enable an aircraft or spacecraft in an off-nominal state or with slightly degraded components to achieve mission performance and safety goals while reducing or avoiding damage to the aircraft or spacecraft. Some key technology enablers for autonomous decision-making include: a continuous state awareness through the maturation of the prognostics health management field, novel sensor development, and the considerable gains made in computation power and data processing bandwidth versus system size. Sophisticated algorithms and physics based models coupled with these technological advances allow reliable assessment of a system, subsystem, or components. Decisions that balance mission objectives and constraints with remaining useful life predictions can be made autonomously to maintain safety requirements, optimal performance, and ensure mission objectives. This autonomous approach to decision-making will come with new risks and benefits, some of which will be examined in this paper. To start, an account of previous work to categorize or quantify autonomy in aerospace systems will be presented. In addition, a survey of perceived risks in autonomous decision-making in the context of piloted aircraft and remotely piloted or completely autonomous unmanned autonomous systems (UAS) will be presented based on interviews that were conducted with individuals from industry, academia, and government.

Frost, Susan↗

NASA NTRS1995

Training for Aviation Decision Making: The Naturalistic Decision Making Perspective

This paper describes the implications of a naturalistic decision making (NDM) perspective for training air crews to make flight-related decisions. The implications are based on two types of analyses: (a) identification of distinctive features that serve as a basis for classifying a diverse set of decision events actually encountered by flight crews, and (b) performance strategies that distinguished more from less effective crews flying full-mission simulators, as well as performance analyses from NTSB accident investigations. Six training recommendations are offered: (1) Because of the diversity of decision situations, crews need to be aware that different strategies may be appropriate for different problems; (2) Given that situation assessment is essential to making a good decision, it is important to train specific content knowledge needed to recognize critical conditions, to assess risks and available time, and to develop strategies to verify or diagnose the problem; (3) Tendencies to oversimplify problems may be overcome by training to evaluate options in terms of goals, constraints, consequences, and prevailing conditions; (4) In order to provide the time to gather information and consider options, it is essential to manage the situation, which includes managing crew workload, prioritizing tasks, contingency planning, buying time (e.g., requesting holding or vectors), and using low workload periods to prepare for high workload; (5) Evaluating resource requirements ("What do I need?") and capabilities ("'What do I have?" ) are essential to making good decisions. Using resources to meet requirements may involve the cabin crew, ATC, dispatchers, and maintenance personnel; (6) Given that decisions must often be made under high risk, time pressure, and workload, train under realistic flight conditions to promote the development of robust decision skills.

Orasanu, Judith↗