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NASA NTRS1975

Large Space Telescope Mission analysis

The total mission scenario from Shuttle/LST (Large Space Telescope) integration to ground return is described. The LST is to contain near-diffraction-limited, 2.4-m optics and a variety of instruments that will allow it to make observations from the ultraviolet to the infrared regions. Particular attention is given to the most important aspect of the LST development planning, which consists in the design for change in both configuration and operation. The discussion covers mission objectives, planning for scientific observation, and support operations. The inherent characteristics of the periodic Space Shuttle revisits and earth return capability provide the LST with a capability for growth that should be incorporated into every phase of its development.

Friedlaender, F. M.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Development and analysis of SCR requirements tables for system scenarios

We describe the use of scenarios to develop and refine requirement tables for parts of the Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS). The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is developing EOSDIS as part of its Mission-To-Planet-Earth (MTPE) project to accept instrument/platform observation requests from end-user scientists, schedule and perform requested observations of the Earth from space, collect and process the observed data, and distribute data to scientists and archives. Current requirements for the system are managed with tools that allow developers to trace the relationships between requirements and other development artifacts, including other requirements. In addition, the user community (e.g., earth and atmospheric scientists), in conjunction with NASA, has generated scenarios describing the actions of EOSDIS subsystems in response to user requests and other system activities. As part of a research effort in verification and validation techniques, this paper describes our efforts to develop requirements tables from these scenarios for the EOSDIS Core System (ECS). The tables specify event-driven mode transitions based on techniques developed by the Naval Research Lab's (NRL) Software Cost Reduction (SCR) project. The SCR approach has proven effective in specifying requirements for large systems in an unambiguous, terse format that enhance identification of incomplete and inconsistent requirements. We describe development of SCR tables from user scenarios and identify the strengths and weaknesses of our approach in contrast to the requirements tracing approach. We also evaluate the capabilities of both approach to respond to the volatility of requirements in large, complex systems.

Callahan, John R.↗

DOE OSTI2024

An Open-Source Decarbonization Analytics Framework: Designing for Low-Carbon Emission Districts and Communities: Preprint

This paper introduces an open-source analytics framework designed to assist in creating low or net-zero carbon buildings and urban districts. Integrated within URBANopt, an open-source platform for energy analysis in districts and communities, this framework equips researchers, architects, engineers, and other stakeholders with tools to evaluate the carbon footprint implications of their design choices. The framework enables the analysis of various scenarios, incorporating both historical and future emission factors, and can span across different climate zones, each with distinct grid and emissions characteristics. The results showcase the framework's capability to evaluate the impact of design upgrades and control strategies on carbon emissions in districts and communities. An illustrative analysis using a hypothetical district in Denver, Colorado, shows reduced emissions from energy efficiency upgrades and control strategies, highlighting the sensitivity in their effects on emissions and energy use.

buildings energy efficiency↗

NASA NTRS2004

Development of Improved Models, Stochasticity, and Frameworks for the MIT Extensible Air Network Simulation

MEANS, the MIT Extensible Air Network Simulation, was created in February of 2001, and has been developed with support from NASA Ames since August of 2001. MEANS is a simulation tool which is designed to maximize fidelity without requiring data of such a low level as to preclude easy examination of alternative scenarios. To this end, MEANS is structured in a modular fashion to allow more detailed components to be brought in when desired, and left out when they would only be an impediment. Traditionally, one of the difficulties with high-fidelity models is that they require a level of detail in their data that is difficult to obtain. For analysis of past scenarios, the required data may not have been collected, or may be considered proprietary and thus difficult for independent researchers to obtain. For hypothetical scenarios, generation of the data is sufficiently difficult to be a task in and of itself. Often, simulations designed by a researcher will model exactly one element of the problem well and in detail, while assuming away other parts of the problem which are not of interest or for which data is not available. While these models are useful for working with the task at hand, they are very often not applicable to future problems. The MEAN Simulation attempts to address these problems by using a modular design which provides components of varying fidelity for each aspect of the simulation. This allows for the most accurate model for which data is available to be used. It also provides for easy analysis of sensitivity to data accuracy. This can be particularly useful in the case where accurate data is available for some subset of the situations that are to be considered. Furthermore, the ability to use the same model while examining effects on different parts of a system reduces the time spent learning the simulation, and provides for easier comparisons between changes to different parts of the system.

Clarke, John-Paul↗

NASA NTRS2009

TASS Model Application for Testing the TDWAP Model

One of the operational modes of the Terminal Area Simulation System (TASS) model simulates the three-dimensional interaction of wake vortices within turbulent domains in the presence of thermal stratification. The model allows the investigation of turbulence and stratification on vortex transport and decay. The model simulations for this work all assumed fully-periodic boundary conditions to remove the effects from any surface interaction. During the Base Period of this contract, NWRA completed generation of these datasets but only presented analysis for the neutral stratification runs of that set (Task 3.4.1). Phase 1 work began with the analysis of the remaining stratification datasets, and in the analysis we discovered discrepancies with the vortex time to link predictions. This finding necessitated investigating the source of the anomaly, and we found a problem with the background turbulence. Using the most up to date version TASS with some important defect fixes, we regenerated a larger turbulence domain, and verified the vortex time to link with a few cases before proceeding to regenerate the entire 25 case set (Task 3.4.2). The effort of Phase 2 (Task 3.4.3) concentrated on analysis of several scenarios investigating the effects of closely spaced aircraft. The objective was to quantify the minimum aircraft separations necessary to avoid vortex interactions between neighboring aircraft. The results consist of spreadsheets of wake data and presentation figures prepared for NASA technical exchanges. For these formation cases, NASA carried out the actual TASS simulations and NWRA performed the analysis of the results by making animations, line plots, and other presentation figures. This report contains the description of the work performed during this final phase of the contract, the analysis procedures adopted, and sample plots of the results from the analysis performed.

Switzer, George F.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Techno-economic assessment of residential PV system tariff policies in Jordan

This study assesses the economic and technical performance of four energy policy scenarios for Jordan's residential photovoltaic (PV) systems: net metering, net billing, zero-export with battery storage, and sell-all-buy-all. With the recent introduction of time-of-use (TOU) tariffs and policies addressing the “duck curve” effect, the research focuses on optimizing PV system sizing across different regulatory frameworks. A detailed techno-economic analysis evaluates these scenarios based on energy production, cost savings, payback periods, and energy self-sufficiency. The findings indicate that net metering and net billing offer the highest cost savings and the shortest payback periods (∼3 years). While the zero-export strategy with battery storage enhances energy self-sufficiency by up to 70%, it requires a higher upfront investment. The sell-all-buy-all scenario supports larger system sizes, achieving a low levelized cost of electricity (0.0696 USD/kWh) and a net present value of 619 USD. Additionally, the study identifies a critical feed-in tariff threshold of 0.055 USD/kWh, at which net billing becomes as financially attractive as net metering. Here, these insights offer valuable recommendations for policymakers to optimize net billing rates and TOU tariffs, promoting the expansion of Jordan's renewable energy sector.

Battery storage↗

DOE OSTI2024

MARVEL Reactor Fuel Performance Report (Rev.2)

The Microreactor Applications Research Validation and EvaLuation (MARVEL) project is producing a high temperature liquid metal-cooled nuclear test bed at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) to ultimately improve the integration of microreactors to end-user applications. This ambitious effort seeks to design, authorize, construct, test, and operate the reactor within five years. In order to construct and operate the MARVEL reactor in a timely manner, the system will utilize materials and component designs which have already been used, qualified, or licensed from previous reactors. The MARVEL reactor will be located at the INL Transient Reactor Test (TREAT) facility in the north high-bay equipment pit and will use the existing 304 stainless steel-clad U-ZrH1.6 pin-type fuel system developed by General Atomics and purchased from TRIGA International. This fuel has been previously qualified under the United States Department of Energy’s (US DOE) Reduced Enrichment for Research and Test Reactors (RERTR) Program. Even though the regulator of the MARVEL reactor is the US DOE, the standards and overall approach recommended by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission is well-defined and utilized here. Following NUREG-1537 regulatory guidance, this report documents the authorization case for the MARVEL fuel system’s application to MARVEL and establishes stable and predictable fuel performance during the most thermophysically unfavorable conditions achievable in the MARVEL reactor. To that end, this report provides a comprehensive survey of the known thermophysical properties, performance, and quantitative relationships associated with the MARVEL reactor fuel element and uses this information to determine its mechanical integrity and risk of reaching unacceptable conditions during the most extreme accident scenarios predicted for the reactor using the most conservative assumptions available. The information contained herein is compiled from a combination of historical reports and peer reviewed scientific publication manuscripts. Known mechanisms under which the fuel is susceptible to failure are highlighted and compared to conditions that could exist in the MARVEL reactor during an unanticipated transient or accident scenario. The two scenarios considered for analysis in this report are (1) an unprotected loss of flow accident and (2) a hypothetical unprotected loss of coolant accident during the loss of flow accident. Preliminary 2D steady-state analyses herein indicate that both fuel-cladding chemical interactions and fuel-cladding mechanical interactions are negligible throughout the fuel’s operational cycle under both normal and high temperature accident scenario conditions. Although higher fidelity 3D time-dependent modeling and simulations are planned, the following may be concluded presently. The MARVEL fuel element maintains its geometric stability and structural integrity during the most extreme accident scenarios predicted for the MARVEL reactor. The hoop stress during the unprotected loss of flow accident reaches about -1.27 MPa; this negative stress indicates that it is compressive rather than tensile. The compressive stress is a result of the NaK pressure on the outside of the fuel element, caused by the restricted thermal expansion of the NaK coolant, exceeding the internal pressures generated inside of the fuel element. The hoop stress generated in the cladding during the unprotected loss of coolant accident reaches a maximum of about approximately 10 MPa, which is nearly an order of magnitude less than the predicted yield strength of the cladding under high-temperature accident scenario conditions. Calculations were compared with results from high performance computational simulations using BISON and are in very close agreement. A conservative MARVEL fuel meat peak temperature limit of 900 °C is recommended presently, which is about 180 °C higher than the peak fuel temperature predicted to occur during the most extreme accident. Based on the known properties and behavior of the MARVEL fuel element, the fuel successfully meets its design and safety requirements under normal and most extreme accident conditions with a large safety margin.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2026

MARVEL Reactor Fuel Performance Report

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

NASA NTRS1992

Precision X-band radio Doppler and ranging navigation: Mars Observer interplanetary cruise scenario

This article describes an error covariance analysis based on a Mars Observer mission scenario; the study was performed to establish the navigation performance that can potentially be achieved in a demonstration of precision two-way X-band (8.4-GHz) Doppler and ranging with the Mars Observer spacecraft planned for next year, and to evaluate the sensitivity of the predicted performance to variations in ground system error modeling assumptions. Orbit determination error statistics computed for a 182-day Doppler and ranging data arc predicted Mars approach orbit determination accuracies of about 0.45 micro-rad in an angular sense, using a conservative ground system error model as a baseline. When less-conservative error model assumptions were employed, it was found that orbit determination accuracies of 0.19 to 0.30 micro-rad could be obtained; the level of accuracy of the assumed Mars ephemeris is about 0.11 micro-rad. In comparison, Doppler-only performance with the baseline error model was predicted to be about 1.30 to 1.51 micro-rad, although it was found that when improved station location accuracies and Global Positioning System-based tropospheric calibration accuracies were assumed, accuracies of 0.44 to 0.52 micro-rad were predicted. In the Doppler plus ranging cases, the results were relatively insensitive to variations in ranging system and station delay calibration uncertainties of a few meters and tropospheric zenith delay calibration uncertainties of a few centimeters.

Estefan, J. A.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Establishing the Framework for e-VTOL Flight Mission Scenario Development for Urban Air Mobility Research using Cognitive Task Analysis

This paper focuses on applying specific protocol aspects of Cognitive Task Analysis (CTA) methods to formulate non-routine flight mission use-case scenarios in support of a potential research study at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Langley Research Center under the Air Traffic Management – eXploration (ATM-X) Urban Air Mobility (UAM) sub-project. The objective of use-case scenarios is to provide a hypothetical situation to elicit expert knowledge and feedback in a specific subject matter area. Use-case scenarios in the field of aviation, including UAM, can help to support the safe integration of these vehicles into the National Airspace System (NAS) through the examination of airspace procedures during non-routine events. Inherent in this type of research is the need to study in-flight non-routine scenarios that the UAM vehicle could encounter. Situations categorized as non-routine events are any events that occur outside of the original flight plan such as a mechanical malfunction or other in-flight emergency requiring special procedures, which can include diversions to a specified, or non-specified, emergency landing area. In specific instances, some non-routine events could be considered as “routine” during in-flight operations, such as the need to perform a go-around due to a balked landing. As the rate of technological expansion surrounding UAM grows rapidly in modern aviation, so does the need for research that focuses on the safe integration of these vehicles including research with a focus on the methods and development of airspace operational procedures. Research rooted in CTA methods provides a framework for developing use-case scenarios appropriate for environments where mental demands are substantial. Substantial mental demands exist while operating in the NAS for pilots, airline dispatchers, and air traffic controllers among many others. With the focus on UAM in mind, it is critical to frame a baseline use-case scenario using information as it pertains to current-day airspace operations. According to Dr. Robert R. Hoffman’s “Protocols for Cognitive Task Analysis,” one of the first steps to applying CTA methods to research is the concept of “bootstrapping” in which the researcher(s) familiarize themselves with the domain that is being studied. To formulate the non-routine flight mission use-case scenarios for the purpose of this potential NASA ATM-X UAM research study, and to inform the baseline use-case scenario, the practice of bootstrapping was utilized to acquire knowledge of current-day airspace procedures.

Heidi S Glaudel↗

NASA NTRS1976

Analysis of the survivability of the shuttle (ALT) fault-tolerant avionics system

An extension of the Complementary-Analytic-Simulative Technique (CAST) is presented which is applicable to the Shuttle Data Processing Subsystem (DPS). A two step process was used. The first step provides models, both analytic and simulative, for analysis of the Approach-Landing Test (ALT) configuration. The ALT modeling and analysis are presented. Since CAST had already been shown to be multicomputer systems, the emphasis was placed on extending the CAST concept so it is applicable to computer systems including the multiplicity of input and output devices found in a real-time control system application. The DPS mission-critical survivability for a six-hour mission was determined to be 0.999863 for the Shuttle ALT baseline configuration. Thus it can be said that for ALT, the survivability is adequate. However, the fact that orbiting missions of up to 30 days are planned illustrates the necessity of extending the ALT work to be applicable to OFT and actual mission scenarios. The above analysis led to the evaluation of three selected options which identified two areas of possible improvement. These improvements would result from use of a recovery technique which combines roll ahead with memory copy, and increased TACAN fault detectability.

Source record↗

DOE OSTI2020

Risk-Based Dynamic Contingency Analysis Applied to Puerto Rico Electric Infrastructure

The U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Office of Electricity and Office of Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy have funded DOE National Laboratories to perform modeling, analysis, and high-level design of resilience-enhancement options for the power grid of the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico. The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) is one of the national laboratories contributing to the DOE effort. Under this funding, PNNL completed Phase I of their analysis in 2018, which identified high-priority transmission enhancements derived from detailed dynamic cascading analysis of severe contingencies, including a hurricane scenario example. This report describes additional analysis completed under Phase II, which was performed over 2019. The PNNL team applied decades of experience making complex power systems more resilient, reliable, secure, flexible, affordable and sustainable, with partners in government and industry. In this report, PNNL presents the Phase II analysis, in which a risk-based dynamic contingency analysis approach to evaluate impact of several hurricane scenarios was developed. This approach was used to identify high-priority enhancements and test resilience mitigation actions, including the evaluation of high-solar scenarios developed as a result of the 2019 Puerto Rico Integrated Resource Plan (IRP).

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Failure Analysis for Molten Salt Thermal Energy Storage Tanks for In-Service CSP Plants

Thermal Energy Storage (TES) is a fundamental component in concentrating solar power (CSP) plants to increase the plant's dispatchability, capacity factor, while reducing the levelized cost of electricity. In central receivers CSP plants, nitrate molten salts have been used for several years for operation temperatures of up to 565 degrees C. Despite many efforts to advance nitrate salt to higher operation temperatures (even considering a replacement with molten chloride salts) to achieve higher energy conversion efficiencies, the 565 degrees C temperature is currently considered the state-of-the art. Although molten salt tanks have been broadly deployed in commercial CSP plants worldwide, several failures have been reported in these tanks after a few months or years of operation, causing significant economic loss and mistrust in CSP technologies. Most of these failures are associated with the infancy of the technology and multiple issues related to tank design, fabrication, commissioning, and aggressive operation. A technical standard dedicated to the design and fabrication of molten nitrate TES tanks does not exist today. Current in-service molten salt tanks have been generally designed based on the American Petroleum Institute's (API) 650 and ASME Section II standards. The API 650 code provides guidelines for dimensions and fabrication for oil storage tanks up to 260 degrees C. The ASME standard provides allowable stress values for various materials at a range of temperatures and conditions. Both standards seem to be limited for molten salt TES tanks where high temperatures, thermal cycling, and transient conditions are expected. In 2020, NREL released the Concentrating Solar Power Best Practices Study (NREL/TP-5500-75763) that summarized multiple issues in CSP plants, along with potential alternatives and recommendations to address those issues based on information collected from participants representing about 80% of operating CSP plants in the world. One of the recommendations from this study was the development of accurate and validated models to evaluate the plant's transient operation, capable of capturing the effect of short-term clouds and operator response, while being flexible in being adapted to various spatial and temporal resource data. The "Failure Analysis for Molten Salt Thermal Energy Tanks for In-Service CSP Plants" project was inspired on this recommendation and was focused on (1) the development and validation of a physics-based model for a representative, commercial-scale molten salt tank, (2) performing simulations to evaluate the behavior of the tank as a function of typical plant operation conditions, (3) understanding tank failures mechanisms, (4) determining the residual stress and distortion in the tank floor after welding fabrication and evaluating their impact in the stresses developed in the tank during operation, (5) assessing the impact of key operation parameters on the temperature and stress distribution, (6) conduct a preliminary evaluation of design features to reduce stress and improve tank's reliability, and (7) estimate the tank's service life based on the stress developed under diverse operation scenarios. From the analysis conducted in the project and presented in this report, it was found that maximum stresses surpassing the yield strength point of the stainless steel (SS) 347H are developed on the tank floor near the perimeter. These large stresses are strongly influenced by the initial residual stresses and distortion of the tank floor after welding fabrication. During operation, large stresses are developed in the tank floor at high operation temperatures with large salt inventory levels during transient operation. High stresses are also related to elevated temperature gradients in the tank floor that could be attributed to insufficient mixing within the salt inflow and the salt inventory. Based on the analysis, creep is the predominant failure mechanism. However, the large stress levels could favor the plastic deformation into buckles, and crack formation due to stress relaxation cracking during cycle operation. A lifetime below 3 years was estimated for the typical plant operation conditions and a specific initial residual stress and deformation distribution of the tank floor. The estimated life agrees with the service time to failure reported in several commercial molten salt tanks. Desing and operation guidelines can be extracted from the analysis presented in this report, which could be adopted by tank manufacturers and CSP operators to advance toward an ultimate solution for tank failures by reducing residual and operational stresses to achieve a tank service life of more than 30 years. Addressing failures in molten salt TES tanks is fundamental for the CSP industry's survivability, but it is also important for other industrial and power generation applications using this technology, including nuclear and concentrating solar thermal.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS2018

The OpenSE Cookbook: A Practical, Recipe Based Collection of Patterns, Procedures, and Best Practices for Executable Systems Engineering for the Thirty Meter Telescope

The OpenSE Cookbook is an open-sourced collection of patterns, procedures, and best practices targeted for systems engineers who seek guidance on applying model-based and executable systems engineering (MBSE) using SysML. Its content has emerged from the system level modeling effort on the European Framework Program 6 (FP6) and the Thirty Meter Telescope (TMT). The TMT MBSE approach applied the Executable Systems Engineering Method (ESEM) and the open-source Engineering Environment (OpenMBEE) to specify, analyze, and verify requirements of TMT’s Alignment and Phasing System (APS) and the Narrow Field Infrared Adaptive Optics System (NFIRAOS). In these applications, implicit dependencies are made explicit in a formal model through the use of ESEM, OpenMBEE, and SysML modeling constructs. The value proposition for applying this MBSE approach was to establish precise requirements and fine-grained traceability to system designs, and to verify key requirements beginning early in development. The integration of ESEM and the OpenMBEE tooling infrastructure (providing linked-data and web-operability) is a significant added value for the MBSE approach. The APS is responsible for the overall pre-adaptive optics wavefront quality, using starlight to measure wavefront errors and align the TMT optics. In the formally integrated and executable SysML model, simulations are performed to analyze the impact of changed requirements and verify specified constraints for various operational scenarios. The APS team used several modeling patterns to capture information such as the requirements, the operational scenarios, involved subsystems and their interaction points, the estimated or required time durations, and the mass and power consumption. Adaptive optics systems are designed to sense real-time atmospheric turbulence and correct the telescope’s optical beam to remove its effect. The system model for the adaptive optics operational modes was developed to capture sequence behaviors and operational scenarios to run Monte-Carlo simulations for verifying acquisition time, observing efficiency, and operational behavior requirements. The model is particularly useful for investigating the effect of parallelization, identifying interface issues, and re-ordering sequence acquisition tasks. A former version of the Cookbook (which is now updated to MBSE challenges, goals, and lessons learned) included modeling guidelines and conventions for all system aspects, hierarchy levels, and views, which were developed during for the Active Phasing Experiment (APE), an opto-mechatronical system technology demonstrator for the Extremely Large Telescope (ELT). The Cookbook utilizes the above mentioned system models as real-world case-studies to demonstrate and document the applications of the recipes, providing also instructional examples and addressing the available tooling support. The Cookbook is accompanied by a number of SysML models and aodel libraries which facilitate model authoring and maintenance. The Cookbook covers the different aspects of Systems Engineering such as management of Requirements, Design (behavior and structure), Interfaces, Interdisciplinary Integration, Analysis, Trade Studies, and Technical Resources. This paper presents the background, motivation, architecture, and highlights some key content of the Cookbook. For example, interface management, error budget management, requirements verification, Monte Carlo driven analysis, and timing analysis of operational scenarios. The paper discusses how the capabilities of OpenMBEE contributed significantly to the adoption of executable systems engineering.

Brower, Eric↗

DOE OSTI2020

Measurement Uncertainty in One-Of-A-Kind Event Data Analysis

A golden standard in science is to repeat an experiment a statistically significant number of times, recording data using the same set of detectors and the same data analysis methodology. In such case experimental error includes both the range of true values generated by repetitions of the experiment, and measurement uncertainty caused by the detector. They are independent. It is a huge and too frequently used simplification, to assume that one can measure multiple repetitions of an identical experiment, resulting in identical true experimental value. Repetitions, as similar is it is experimentally achievable, have unavoidable built-in differences resulting in a range of the true values rather than in a single value. When modern, very sensitive and well calibrated measurement systems are used, this range is not negligible, and sometimes dominates over the measurement uncertainty. Range of true values depends on built-in differences in physics of the experiment. Stochastic physical processes result typically in a broader range of true values than non-stochastic processes do. Measurement uncertainty depends on a measurement method (properties of the detector not of the experiment). Modern measurement methods, including digital ones, frequently make the measurement uncertainty very small. When data from one–of –a kind experiment are analyzed, only the measurement uncertainty is reported. It provides no information about the range of true experimental values, neither about reliability of a reported data point. Reliability of a data point is in general independent from its measurement uncertainty. However, in practice reliable measurement methods frequently have high measurement uncertainty, while low reliability methods are applied to limit measurement uncertainty. Comparison of reliable data with high measurement uncertainty to not so reliable data measured with low uncertainty is discussed – in different scenarios different data analysis methods are applicable. Methods for data analysis from an experiment repeated statistically significant number of times are very well developed. They do not require a detailed expertise in physics of an experiment, nor in the properties of the measurement system used, and meaning of the reported uncertainty is well understood in any scientific community. It all changes when data from one-of-a-kind experiment is analyzed. Analyst’s expertise is required both in the physics of the experiment and in all aspects of the measurement system, all possible malfunctions. Data users must remember that only measurement uncertainty is reported from any one-of-a-kind experiment. Theory with simulations may provide estimation of expected built-in differences in the experiment, and by this of expected range of true values for a given experiment; yet measurement uncertainty can never be used in place of the range of true experimental values.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2020

Uncertainty about the Uncertainty [Slides]

A golden standard in science is to repeat an experiment a statistically significant number of times, recording data using the same set of detectors and the same data analysis methodology. In such case experimental error includes both the range of true values generated by repetitions of the experiment, and measurement uncertainty caused by the detector. They are independent. It is a huge and too frequently used simplification, to assume that one can measure multiple repetitions of an identical experiment, resulting in identical true experimental value. Repetitions, as similar is it is experimentally achievable result in a range of the true values rather than in a single value. When modern, very sensitive and well calibrated measurement systems are used, this range is not negligible, and sometimes dominates, in comparison to the measurement uncertainty. Range of true values depends on the physics of the experiment, while measurement uncertainty depends on the measurement method (properties of the detector not of the experiment). When data from one–of–a kind experiment are analyzed, only the measurement uncertainty is reported. It gives no information about the range, in which the true values of experiment would spread if the experiment was repeated. A frequently used approximation, that if a physical quantity is measured as a function of time, only measurement of this quantity, produces uncertainty is also in some real experiments fare to strong. Example: In reaction history time measurement uncertainty propagated to alpha dominated under certain conditions over the flux measurement uncertainty propagated to alpha. Reliability of a data point is in general independent from its measurement uncertainty. However, in practice reliable measurement methods frequently have high measurement uncertainty, while low reliability methods are applied to limit measurement uncertainty. Comparison of reliable data with high measurement uncertainty to not so reliable data measured with low uncertainty is discussed – in different scenarios different data analysis methods are applicable.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2021

Igiugig Site Visit Report

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) team conducted a site visit during January 23-25, 2019 with the Igiugig Village Council (IVC) and other stakeholders to assist the community of Igiugig in refining their long-term energy strategy. The agenda included a tour of the village, data collection, presentations, long-term visioning exercises, identification of energy scenarios, and a school presentation. Participants in the site visit activities spanned a range of local, regional, government, and industry participation. There were 24 attendees at the all-day community workshop on Thursday, January 24th, with participants from the IVC, NREL, Bristol Bay Native Association (BBNA), Bristol Bay Native Corporation (BBNC), Lake and Peninsula Borough, Alaska Energy Authority, Intergrid, ORPC, Deer Stone Consulting, the Southwest Alaska Municipal Conference, and University of Alaska Fairbanks - Alaska Center for Energy and Power. Igiugig is a well-organized rural Alaskan community, with a leadership team that appears to have broad community support. The use of consensus-based decision making is one tangible example of how the leadership team actively invokes and promotes community-focused thinking. The NREL team observed anecdotal evidence of how this approach seems to be strengthening the community: active participation in the visioning exercise, a student hosted fund-raiser dinner at the school, a clean and organized landfill, and well-maintained roads and buildings. Igiugig has wind, solar, and river hydrokinetic resources readily available within the community. Wind has shown to be a promising resource in the region, and has been integrated into microgrids around the state, but the community has had mixed success with wind technologies: some devices failed quickly and others continue to operate. The economics of solar energy are improving in Alaska, and economical solar projects are being installed around the state. Considering that economic activity in Igiugig peaks during the summer sport fishing season, solar could prove to be a valuable supplement to the electrical system. Igiugig has been a test site for two different river hydrokinetic devices, and they have began a third project to operate ORPC's RivGen device, which is delivering valuable device performance data, operations and maintenance experience, and design refinement information. Already, this device has made over 7-million revolutions, and delivered over 8 MWh of power to the community. Igiugig's river resource is fairly unique because it is available year-round and has the potential to provide reliable base-load power for months at a time. A preliminary investigation of this diverse resource mix suggests that Igiugig could achieve very high levels (70% or more) of annual renewable generation contributions. A critical step in pursuing this path is identifying the mix of energy assets (generation and storage) that best meets the community's budget, needs, and goals. The assets that a community installs early in their grid-modernization initiative can constrain the options that are economical at later stages, which may lead to sub-optimal solutions. This is where technical and economic analysis of potential scenarios (i.e., distinct mixes of energy assets) can be useful in identifying the most promising pathways so that a community can make informed and strategic decisions about the assets they install. These analyses are most accurate and informative when they are based on actual technology performance and cost data. As the RivGen project continues to operate and generate this data, we will be better prepared to evaluate the technology's long-term viability and to identify research areas that would improve it. Igiugig's energy projects are at the cutting edge of two intersecting technology areas: 1) deploying an operational river hydrokinetic turbine, and 2) integrating renewable energy sources to achieve very high percent renewables. If these projects are successful, the lessons learned and technologies developed could be valuable for other microgrids around the world. Igiugig's unique resource mix make it an ideal location for this work, and the community's organizational strength make it an ideal partner in this ground-breaking work. Ongoing support for technical assistance to manage and address technical challenges along the way will maximize the probability of project success.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Gravity-improved metastability bounds for the Type-I seesaw mechanism

Right-handed neutrinos (RHN) destabilize the electroweak vacuum by increasing its decay rate. In the SM, the latter is dominated by physics at the RG scale at which λ reaches its minimum, ${\mu}_{\ast}^{\textrm{SM}}$ ~10 17 GeV. For large neutrino Yukawa coupling Y ν , RHNs can push μ* beyond the Planck scale, implying that gravitational effects need to be taken into account. In this work, we perform the first comprehensive study of electroweak vacuum metastability in the type-I seesaw mechanism including these effects. Our analysis covers both low- and high-scale seesaw models, with two as well as three RHNs and for multiple values of the Higgs’ non-minimal coupling to gravity. We find that gravitational effects can significantly stabilize the vacuum, leading to weaker metastability bounds. We show that metastability sets the strongest bounds for low-scale seesaws with M N > 1 TeV. For high-scale seesaws, we find upper bounds on the allowed masses for the RHNs, which are relevant for high-scale leptogenesis. We also point out that Tr(${Y}_{\nu}^{\dagger}$Y ν ), which is commonly used to express these metastability bounds, cannot be used for all of parameter space. Instead, we argue that bounds can always be expressed reliably through Tr(${Y}_{\nu}^{\dagger}$Y ν ${Y}_{\nu}^{\dagger}$Y ν ). Lastly, we use this insight to develop a new technique for an easier RG analysis applicable to scenarios with degenerate RHN masses.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗