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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 271 records · Page 15
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

A Sensitive Electrochemical Cholinesterase-Inhibiting Biosensor for Organophosphorus Pesticides Based on Ti 3 C 2 TX MXene Quantum Dots

Organophosphorus pesticides (OPs) pose significant environmental and health risks due to their widespread use and toxicity, primarily by inhibiting acetylcholinesterase. Traditional detection methods are often slow and costly, highlighting the urgent need for advanced, sensitive, and accessible technologies. This study developed a highly sensitive electrochemical cholinesterase-inhibiting biosensor for OP pesticides, utilizing Ti 3 C 2 T x MXene Quantum Dots (MQDs), which was synthesized via a hydrothermal method. The biosensor’s performance was characterized using electrochemical impedance spectroscopy, differential pulse voltammetry (DPV), and cyclic voltammetry. DPV proved to be the optimal technique, exhibiting an ultralow detection limit of 1 × 10 −17 M and a wide linear range (10 −14 –10 −8 M) for chlorpyrifos (a model OP) with an estimated inhibition constant of 62 nM. The biosensor demonstrated high selectivity for OPs (chlorpyrifos, acephate, glyphosate) over a non-target pyrethroid (permethrin), confirmed by distinct electrochemical signatures and compared to in vitro cholinergic activity assays in bean beetle homogenates. The enhanced performance is attributed to the high surface-to-volume ratio, quantum confinement effects, and superior conductivity of the MQDs, as well as the robust enzyme immobilization facilitated by glutaraldehyde cross-linking and a chitosan matrix. This work presents a promising platform for rapid, sensitive, and selective detection of OP pesticides, with potential applications in environmental monitoring and public health protection.

Chemistry↗
DOE OSTI2024

Characterization and controllability of radiated power via extrinsic impurity seeding in strongly negative triangularity plasmas in DIII-D

Experiments with extrinsic impurity seeding in strongly negative triangularity shapes in DIII-D achieved radiated power fractions (relative to input power) of up to ≈85% total radiation and ≈55% core radiation in steady-operating conditions. The relationship between core and total radiation was sensitive to impurity species and input power. Attempts to reach higher radiation levels via higher impurity flows resulted in radiative collapse disruptions. Nitrogen, neon, argon, and krypton were tested. Injection was by gas puffing, usually controlled by feeding back real-time estimates for core or total radiating fractions ($P_\textrm{rad} / P_\textrm{input}$). Argon and krypton were controlled by feeding back total radiating fraction, whereas neon was controlled by feeding back the core radiating fraction, due to the lower efficiency of neon as a divertor radiator. Nitrogen flows were pre-programmed. Reasonable total $P_\textrm{rad}$ control target following was achieved with argon or krypton. Control was more challenging with the neon/core radiation configuration, which was more prone to slow response and overshooting of the control target. Poor particle removal contributed to the control challenge: neon particle inventory within the last closed flux surface was roughly constant for up to 1 s (the longest duration tested) after neon injection was halted. However, separate experiments with laser-blow off of non-recycling impurities measured a short impurity confinement time, on the scale of the energy confinement time of ∼100 ms. Modeling with the Aurora impurity transport simulation matched experimental neon density profiles with full recycling (R = 1.0) and weak pumping but predicted rapid decreases in neon inventory if pumping were increased or recycling decreased. This indicates that changes outside the confined plasma (adding a well-placed pump) would improve controllability for all highly recycling species.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Assessing the Impact of a Forest Canopy on Near-Surface Wind Statistics

Representing the forest canopy in atmospheric numerical models should improve simulated winds within and above the canopy up to a few hundred meters above the ground. Here, in this study, we implement a forest canopy parameterization into the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model in a large-eddy simulation (LES) mode by applying drag forces across multiple layers within the canopy height. We use unique observations from the Lidar Experiments for Assessing Flow over Forests (LEAFF) field campaign at the Wind River Experimental Forest (WREF) in the U.S. Pacific Northwest to evaluate model performance. In a 2-day case study, the canopy parameterization improved wind predictions both within and above the canopy, particularly during the daytime and at finer grid resolution. Without it, winds were frequently overpredicted above the canopy. Similarly, derived quantities such as the wind shear index also yielded estimates closer to observations with the canopy parameterization implemented. These findings suggest that representing the canopy using drag forces alone can improve simulated mean winds up to 200 m above the surface. Furthermore, second-order statistical moments of wind were more sensitive to canopy density than first-order moments, especially during the daytime. This increased sensitivity and the improved daytime performance in wind speed—evidenced by the lowest bias from observations (3% compared to 20% over diurnal cycle)—imply that winds above the canopy layer are strongly influenced by how well turbulence above the canopy is modeled. The results of this study can serve as a foundation for parameterizing forest canopy effects in coarser weather forecast models.

Energy - Wind↗
DOE OSTI2026

Uncertainty quantification for competing failure mechanisms in unidirectionally reinforced carbon–carbon composites

Microstructure-informed finite element models play a key role in the carbon–carbon composite design process. Variability in manufacturing process parameters and experimental limitations introduce model parameter uncertainty. This study quantifies the effect of model parameter uncertainty on transverse tensile fracture behavior and proposes a methodology to predict the failure mode based on competing microscale damage mechanisms. Finite element simulations incorporate fiber–matrix interface debonding with cohesive zones and matrix damage with a smeared crack band approach in a unidirectional carbon–carbon composite. Results from a variance-based global sensitivity analysis identifies interfacial and matrix damage parameters as the primary source of variability in fracture behavior. Sobol’ indices indicate that matrix and cohesive zone strengths contribute 94% of the variance in the effective ultimate stress. A local analysis elucidates the relationship between these constituent strength parameters and failure mode by estimating the probability of cohesive, matrix, and mixed-mode dominated failure. Based on the results for 4000 simulations, 93% exhibit mixed-mode or interfacial dominated failure, which underscores the crucial role of fiber–matrix interface debonding in the transverse tensile failure of carbon–carbon composites. These uncertainty quantification results facilitate more efficient model calibration and provide a framework for microstructure-informed failure predictions in the face of manufacturing-induced uncertainty.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

On the connection between least squares, regularization, and classical shadows

Classical shadows (CS) offer a resource-efficient means to estimate quantum observables, circumventing the need for exhaustive state tomography. Here, we clarify and explore the connection between CS techniques and least squares (LS) and regularized least squares (RLS) methods commonly used in machine learning and data analysis. By formal identification of LS and RLS ``shadows'' completely analogous to those in CS---namely, point estimators calculated from the empirical frequencies of single measurements---we show that both RLS and CS can be viewed as regularizers for the underdetermined regime, replacing the pseudoinverse with invertible alternatives. Through numerical simulations, we evaluate RLS and CS from three distinct angles: the tradeoff in bias and variance, mismatch between the expected and actual measurement distributions, and the interplay between the number of measurements and number of shots per measurement. Compared to CS, RLS attains lower variance at the expense of bias, is robust to distribution mismatch, and is more sensitive to the number of shots for a fixed number of state copies---differences that can be understood from the distinct approaches taken to regularization. Conceptually, our integration of LS, RLS, and CS under a unifying ``shadow'' umbrella aids in advancing the overall picture of CS techniques, while practically our results highlight the tradeoffs intrinsic to these measurement approaches, illuminating the circumstances under which either RLS or CS would be preferred, such as unverified randomness for the former or unbiased estimation for the latter.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2025

Techno-economic and life cycle analyses of the synthesis of a platinum–strontium titanate catalyst

The heterogeneous platinum/strontium titanate (Pt/SrTiO 3 or Pt/STO) catalyst has garnered significant attention as a promising candidate for the hydrogenolysis of polyolefins to hydrocarbon oils. This study evaluates the cost and environmental impacts of a newly developed scalable Pt/STO catalyst production, which includes the synthesis of the STO support and the deposition of Pt onto the support. This two-step synthesis plays a significant role in assessing the commercial feasibility of the catalyst, while energy consumption during the process plays an important role in its environmental impacts. The CatCost and the Research and Development Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Technologies (R&D GREET) models were used, respectively, to perform techno-economic analysis (TEA) and life cycle analysis (LCA) of the newly developed catalyst. The TEA showed that the raw materials, accounting for approximately 76% of the total operation cost, has a profound effect on the estimated catalyst cost, mainly due to the platinum precursor. The LCA findings indicated that the catalyst production generates greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of 66 kg CO 2 e per kg, primarily due to the use of solvents and electricity in the process. The sensitivity analysis indicated that the total operating costs (OpEX), platinum precursor cost, and spent catalyst value (SCV) significantly impact the cost of the synthesized catalyst. Additionally, adopting solvent recovery strategies and using renewable electricity can reduce the GHG emissions of catalyst production to 29 kg CO 2 e per kg.

Heterogeneous Platinum/strontium titanate Catalyst↗
DOE OSTI2025

Form-factor dependence of neutrino-nucleus cross sections using microscopic methods

To achieve its design goals, the next generation of neutrino-oscillation accelerator experiments requires percent-level predictions of neutrino-nucleus cross sections supplemented by robust estimates of the theoretical uncertainties involved. The latter arise from both approximations in solving the nuclear many-body problem and in the determination of the single- and few-nucleon quantities taken as input by many-body methods. To gauge the sensitivity of realistic nuclear many body methods to these few-nucleon quantities, we compute flux-averaged double-differential cross sections using the Green’s function Monte Carlo and spectral function methods as well as different parameterizations of the nucleon axial form factors based on either deuterium bubble-chamber data or lattice quantum chromodynamics calculations. The cross-section results are compared with available experimental data from the MiniBooNE and T2K collaborations. We also discuss the uncertainties associated with N → Δ transition form factors that enter the two-body current operator. We quantify the relations between neutrino-nucleus cross section and nucleon form factor uncertainties. These relations enable us to determine the form factor precision targets required to achieve a given cross-section precision.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Strong Gravitational Lens Is Worth a Thousand Dark Matter Halos: Inference on Small-scale Structure Using Sequential Methods

Strong gravitational lenses are a singular probe of the Universe’s small-scale structure—they are sensitive to the gravitational effects of low-mass (<10 10 M ⊙ ) halos even without a luminous counterpart. Recent strong-lensing analyses of dark matter structure rely on simulation-based inference (SBI). Modern SBI methods, which leverage neural networks as density estimators, have shown promise in extracting the halo-population signal. However, it is unclear whether the constraints from these models are limited by the methodology or the data. In this study, we introduce an accelerator-optimized simulation pipeline that can generate lens images with realistic subhalo populations in milliseconds. Leveraging this simulator, we identify the main limitation of our fiducial SBI analysis: training set size. We then adopt a sequential neural posterior estimation (SNPE) approach, allowing us to refine the training distribution to align with the observed data. Using only one-fifth as many mock Hubble Space Telescope images, SNPE matches the constraints on the low-mass halo population produced by our best nonsequential model. Our experiments suggest that an over 3 order-of-magnitude increase in training set size and GPU hours would be required to achieve an equivalent result without sequential methods. While the full potential of the existing lens sample remains to be explored, the notable improvement in constraining power enabled by our sequential approach highlights that current constraints are limited primarily by methodology and not the data itself. Moreover, our results emphasize the need to treat training set generation and model optimization as interconnected stages of any cosmological analysis using SBI.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Using a 1D Radially Symmetric Coda Envelope Model for Robust Moment Magnitude ( M w ) Estimation in Iraq’s Tectonically Diverse Zones

Robust estimation of moment magnitude (M w ) can be challenging for Iraq due to the strong lateral heterogeneity across diverse tectonic zones. We aim to improve moment magnitude estimation by investigating the reliability of using a 1D coda envelope model in diverse tectonic zones of different lateral effects and offer a way forward for reliable estimates of M w for small events that are difficult to waveform model. Iraq comprises two main tectonic zones: (1) the Outer platform, consisting of the northwestern Zagros fold-thrust belt and the Mesopotamian foredeep, and (2) the Inner Arabian platform which is overlain by the Iraqi desert. A simple 1D coda envelope model was used because coda waves have a low sensitivity to the source and path heterogeneity. Three separate coda calibrations were conducted to investigate the robustness of a single 1D calibration to fit the country: Whole-region calibration, Zagros calibration, and Mesopotamia calibration. In the whole-region calibration, we used stations from both the Zagros and Mesopotamia zones. In the two other calibration models, we used only stations that were in those particular zones. Ground-truth reference spectra derived from the coda spectral ratio method were used to constrain high-frequency site terms. There was no drastic difference when comparing the moment magnitudes calculated from the waveform modeling and the three calibration models. The results show that the 1D coda envelope model is a reliable method even for a region with diverse tectonic zones. Therefore, we recommend using the whole-region calibration model for moment magnitude estimation that provides more complete path coverage and avoids biases introduced by path correction failures. The proposed calibration is a fundamental step in updating the comprehensive earthquake catalog and probabilistic seismic hazard assessments for Iraq.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Effect of a collapsing gas bubble on the shock-to-detonation transition in liquid nitromethane

We studied the shock-induced collapse of butane gas bubbles in the homogeneous explosive nitromethane (NM) to investigate the effects of hot spot formation on the detonation process. A butane bubble was injected into a sample of NM, and a shock wave from a flat plate impactor compressed the bubble, creating a localized hot spot. We measured shock and detonation wave speeds with optical velocimetry, and we used a high-speed camera to image the shock propagation and bubble collapse processes. A multiband optical fiber pyrometer measured the time-resolved thermal radiance, and we used the results and emissivity values extracted from spectral fits to estimate temperatures. We measured the characteristics of the shock-to-detonation transition in NM with and without a bubble. All experiments were performed at shock pressures near 8 GPa, where neat NM can detonate. A single bubble in this system was shown to sensitize NM, leading to a reduced run-to-detonation time. We used hydrodynamic modeling to predict shock wave propagation, the extent of chemical reaction, and subsequent temperature rise from the collapsing bubble. We used a temperature-dependent Arrhenius burn model for simulations, and it yielded much better results than reactive burn models that depend only on pressure and density.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2025

Source Attribution of Methane Enhancements at the Southern Great Plains Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Site Field Campaign Report

Tower data from 2017 to 2020 revealed that the U.S. Department of Energy’s Southern Great Plains (SGP) Atmospheric Radiation Measurements (ARM) observatory in Oklahoma exhibited significant CH 4 enhancements compared to other U.S. tower sites. On average, near-surface CH 4 at the ARM site was higher, had larger diurnal and seasonal variations, and had sharper near-surface increases at night compared to other tower sites in the U.S. A field campaign was conducted in June 2024 to identify and quantify the surrounding CH 4 emission sources by two researchers from the University of Oklahoma. During the campaign, a mobile measurement was conducted using a LI-COR 7810 tracer gas analyzer mounted on a vehicle during June 23-26, 2024 near the SGP site (within 7 km distance). We sampled CH 4 along predefined routes surrounding a suspected source, i.e., a large animal feeding operation (AFO) farm 5.8 km northwest of the SGP ARM site. Measurements were collected between 04:30 and 09:00 local time when the planetary boundary layer (PBL) was shallow, increasing sensitivity to surface emissions. Driving speed was kept below 5 mph to minimize pressure-related artifacts. CH 4 concentrations downwind of the AFO exceeded 6000 ppb on the early morning of June 26, corresponding to an emission rate of ~95 kg⋅hr -1 estimated using the mass balance method. Additional sources identified during the campaign include nearby open-range cattle and leaks from a nearby natural gas pipeline.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Revisiting a minimally destructive analytic approach for determining electrochemical kinetic parameters: Measuring aluminum corrosion across a wide pH range based on the Butler-Volmer equation

Here, this study revisits the three-point sampling of the simplified Butler-Volmer equation to address the limitations of strong potentiodynamic polarization, which can introduce irreversible damage and uncertainty in corrosion analysis. The method extracts electrochemical kinetic parameters while minimizing polarization effects, evaluates noise sensitivity relative to overpotential, and accounts for errors from signal noise, OCP drift, ohmic resistance, and mass-transfer constraints. Verified against the Tafel extrapolation method for aluminum corrosion across a wide pH range, this low-polarization approach enables accurate evaluations with specific error estimates, offering a robust alternative to linear polarization resistance methods that assume constant Tafel slopes.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

The impact of simplified window and exhaust fan assumptions on indoor air quality in multifamily buildings

In residential buildings, the indoor air quality can be significantly affected by ventilation measures initiated by occupants, including the operation of windows and in-unit exhaust fans in kitchens and bathrooms. Many simulations simplify these factors by disregarding window opening behaviors and using fixed schedules for exhaust fan operation across all residential units. To estimate the impact of these simplifications in the U.S. context, this study used coupled CONTAM and EnergyPlus models to simulate airflow and contaminant transport in multifamily buildings. The coupled models parametrically varied climate zone, building airtightness, and mechanical ventilation system types. The study conducted a sensitivity analysis on two key occupant behaviors: (1) operating kitchen and bathroom exhausts on different schedules in individual dwelling units, and (2) scheduling open windows on ground and top floors. The simplified assumptions (i.e. uniform in-unit exhaust fan operation and window operation) had a minimal impact on inter-unit air flow and contaminant transport simulations across a broad range of building air leakage and mechanical ventilation system types. These findings suggest that for buildings with tight construction it is reasonable for most modelling and simulation efforts to ignore the effects of non-uniform exhaust fan operation and window opening.

Occupant behavior↗
DOE OSTI2024

Proceedings for the Workshop on Applied Nuclear Data Activities 2024

The Workshop for Applied Nuclear Data Activities (WANDA) is designed to increase communication among nuclear data (ND) users in multidisciplinary federal programs, ND producers, ND funders, and other ND experts. It also presents an opportunity to cross-pollinate ideas as well as introduce ND gaps identified by federal programs to ND experts and ND capabilities to the various federal ND users. WANDA 2024 included five technical sessions, three of which focused on Fusion Energy Sciences (FES)—FES Fusion Neutronics, FES Tritium Production, and FES Material Damage—and two stand-alone sessions—Isotopes and Targetry for Nuclear Data and Uncertainty Quantification. The FES sessions successfully brought new voices to the WANDA discussions, expanding the application space in which nuclear data are critical. FES programs need accurate nuclear data with realistic uncertainty quantification to properly estimate, for example, shielding, activation, tritium production, helium production, structural material integrity, and superconducting magnet operation. This includes a variety of projectile (neutrons, photons, charged particles) and target atoms. One of the action items common to all the FES sessions was a need to perform sensitivity studies to identify the prioritization of nuclear data needs. The Isotopes and Targetry session highlighted the many capabilities available to produce high-quality targets for nuclear data measurements, including 3D printing with spherical powders, combustion synthesis coupled with spin coating & electrospraying, inkjet printing, and isotopic doping. These new methods open doors for more accurate measurement, but it was also stressed that sample characterization following any method of fabrication is of the highest importance to accurately interpret nuclear data measurement results that used that sample. The Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) session was broken into two categories: nuclear data uncertainty quantification and the use of that uncertainty quantification. Thematic to the UQ session was the loss of information when going from nuclear data measurement, to evaluation, to evaluated file, and finally to neutron transport calculations. Current evaluated ND libraries typically only contain covariances, which assume that the probability distributions are Gaussian. Beyond being a simplified assumption for many evaluations, this can lead to negative values on many observables when attempting to sample the covariance. The covariance format, however, is very efficient in that a simple set of linear equations can transform uncertainty from parameters or cross sections to the application of interest. Focused collaboration is needed between nuclear data evaluators and nuclear data users to ensure that needs are being met.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Applying a Multisector Scenario Framework to Evaluate Past and Future Public Surface Water Supply Infrastructure Strategies in Texas

Datasets supporting the index model and scenario analysis used in evaluating surface water supply strategies across different water system types in Texas. These data underpin the scenario development and application of five key indicators: Water Availability Index (WAI), Water Quality Index (WQI), Energy Requirement Index (ERI), Water Treatment Cost (WTC), and Water Infrastructure Cost (WIC). The datasets are organized by system type—stream reaches (flowlines), waterbodies, and reservoirs—and include both raw and standardized index values. The integrated datasets also provide scenario classifications (original and adjusted) based on infrastructure and planning priorities, enabling comparison across Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Additional strategy-level data are included to support evaluation of state-level new reservoir projects in relation to cost and availability tradeoffs. Please refer to the README file provided in Files for more details. Descriptions of the datasets are provided below. Dataset(s) Descriptions Folder: Index_model_database.zip Subfolder: Stream_reach.zip Fl_wf.csv, Fl_wq.csv, Fl_er.csv, Fl_wf_wtcUV.csv, Fl_wf_wtcnoUV.csv, Fl_allfac_wic1.csv, Fl_allfac_wic2.csvDatasets for computing WAI, WQI, ERI, WTC, and WIC for surface water systems classified as stream reaches (flowlines). Subfolder: Waterbody.zip Wb_wf.csv, Wb_wq.csv, Wb_er.csv, Wb_wf_wtcUV.csv, Wb_wf_wtcnoUV.csv, Wb_allfac_wic1.csv, Wb_allfac_wic2.csvEquivalent index model datasets for waterbodies, reflecting hydrologic and infrastructure attributes specific to impounded natural systems. Subfolder: Reservoir.zip Rs_wf.csv, Rs_wq.csv, Rs_er.csv, Rs_wf_wtcUV.csv, Rs_wf_wtcnoUV.csv, Rs_allfac_wic1.csv, Rs_allfac_wic2.csvIndex model datasets specific to regulated reservoir systems, incorporating both resource indicators and cost parameters. Folder: Integrated data.zip combined_merged_data.csv, combined_merged_data_scenario.csvDatasets integrating index model indicators (both raw and scaled) with scenario classifications, including adjustments reflecting SSP-aligned transitions and planning shifts. Folder: Additional data.zip wai_supplystrat_wic_merged.csvCurated dataset capturing proposed major reservoir-based municipal water supply strategies in Texas. Integrates site-level planning data with estimated capital infrastructure costs and water availability scores for comparative assessment.

geospatial↗
DOE OSTI2026

Envelope-driven comfort risk in residential demand response

Residential demand response (DR) is a valuable resource for grid reliability, but remains challenging because the highly heterogeneous residential building stock leads to widely varying and hard-to-predict load and comfort responses during DR events. Although prior research has estimated the technical potential of DR-capable technologies for achieving energy demand savings, little is known about how they affect thermal comfort. In particular, it remains unclear how indoor thermal conditions due to DR depend on the thermal envelope characteristics of the housing stock. To address this gap, this study provides a systematic, location-specific assessment of indoor thermal performance during DR-events across the US housing stock using both typical DR weather data and detailed building metadata. We evaluate how envelope characteristics influence indoor temperatures during realistic simulated summer and winter DR events across 37 US locations, applying both temperature threshold and rate of temperature change criteria to estimate region-level probabilities of discomfort. Additionally, we show the impact of distinct weather patterns that intensify or abate thermal stress on comfort outcomes. Results show a near-universal overheating risk in summer DR events, where comfort outcomes are strongly influenced by rapid risk of comfort violations. In contrast, overall winter DR discomfort risk is lower, risk escalation is more gradual and shows greater sensitivity to event duration. These findings offer a data-driven quantification of comfort risk across diverse climates and building envelopes, demonstrating the need for region-specific DR scheduling and discomfort mitigation strategies tailored to local weather patterns and the performance of existing residential buildings.

Demand response↗
DOE OSTI2025

Streamflow Response to Glacier Mass Loss Varies With Basin Precipitation Across Alaska

Abstract Diminishing glaciers affect streamflow, and given the extent of glaciers in Alaska and adjacent Canada, continued glacier mass loss is likely to have profound effects on ecosystems sensitive to runoff. The effects of glacier mass loss on streamflow are likely to vary across the wide ranges of basin size, glacier cover, and precipitation in this region. In this study, we use U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamflow data with satellite‐based glacier volume change estimates to quantify how glacier mass loss subsidized streamflow over the 2000–2019 period for 116 glacierized basins. We examine interannual variability in that subsidy at three USGS‐monitored glaciers to explore the ability of the subsidy to buffer streamflow derived solely from precipitation. We found the relative importance of percent glacier cover on streamflow magnitude increases in drier basins. In the driest basins, glaciers produced 40 times greater percent glacier mass loss subsidies to streamflow for the percent glacier cover compared to the wettest basins. While the subsidy from glacier mass loss buffers interannual variability in streamflow to varying degrees, it can also increase streamflow variability. Smaller amounts of percent glacier cover are needed to produce summer‐melt‐dominated seasonal flow regimes in drier basins than in wetter basins. Decreasing glacier cover will eventually decrease summer streamflow, increasing spring streamflow in drier basins, and attenuating seasonality with increasing spring and autumnal streamflow in wetter basins. Quantifying the downstream effects of continued glacier mass loss without the computational expense of a hydrological model is broadly applicable in this changing climate.

Curran, Janet H. [U.S. Geological Survey Alaska Sc↗
DOE OSTI2026

Accelerated Carbon and Water Cycles in the Amazon and Congo Basins Revealed From TRENDY Models and Remote Sensing Products

Tropical forests play a vital role in the global carbon cycle and land–atmosphere interactions. Estimating tropical forest carbon–water dynamics is challenging due to observational and modeling uncertainties. This study leverages the “Trends and drivers of the regional scale terrestrial sources and sinks of carbon dioxide” (TRENDY) project models and satellite observations to assess changes (2003–2021) in vegetation carbon, gross primary production (GPP), evapotranspiration (ET), and net biosphere production (NBP) in the Amazon and Congo. Atmospheric CO 2 , climate variability, and land use and land cover changes constrain these variables between 1700 and 2021 with the overall increasing trends of carbon stock and fluxes. The models overestimate vegetation carbon and GPP, while ET and NBP are consistent with observations. Fire-activated models predict lower values for vegetation carbon and GPP, ET, and NBP, aligning more closely with observations. The higher ET from fire-activated models may result from enhanced soil evaporation due to increased canopy openings. Fire-inactivated models could well estimate the magnitudes of NBP. The high vegetation carbon in nitrogen-enabled models points to simulation uncertainties and imbalance in model numbers regarding the nitrogen cycle. Although the nitrogen cycle enhances water use efficiency in both the Amazon and Congo, the models show a higher sensitivity to the nitrogen cycle in the Congo. This study highlights the challenges in accurately representing tropical biogeochemical cycles and the values of satellite products in model evaluations, underscoring the need for standard modeling protocols that address biogeochemical components (e.g., nutrient cycles) to better resolve process-based representations.

Shi, Mingjie [Pacific Northwest National Laborator↗