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NASA NTRS2002

NASA Marshall Engineering Thermosphere Model

This Technical Memorandum describes the NASA Marshall Engineering Thermosphere Model-Version 2.0 (MET-V 2.0) and contains an explanation on the use of the computer program along with an example of the MET-V 2.0 model products. The MET-V 2.0 provides an update to the 1988 version of the model. It provides information on the total mass density, temperature, and individual species number densities for any altitude between 90 and 2,500 km as a function of latitude, longitude, time, and solar and geomagnetic activity. A description is given for use of estimated future 13-mo smoothed solar flux and geomagnetic index values as input to the model. Address technical questions on the MET-V 2.0 and associated computer program to Jerry K. Owens, Spaceflight Experiments Group, Marshall Space Flight Center, Huntsville, AL 35812 (256-961-7576; e-mail Jerry.Owens@msfc.nasa.gov).

Owens, J. K.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Solar Effects on Climate and the Maunder Minimum: Minimum Certainty

The current state of our understanding of solar effects on climate is reviewed. As an example of the relevant issues, the climate during the Maunder Minimum is compared with current conditions in GCM simulations that include a full stratosphere and parameterized ozone response to solar spectral irradiance variability and trace gas changes. The GISS Global Climate/Middle Atmosphere Model coupled to a q-flux/mixed layer model is used for the simulations, which begin in 1500 and extend to the present. Experiments were made to investigate the effect of total versus spectrally-varying solar irradiance changes; spectrally-varying solar irradiance changes on the stratospheric ozone/climate response with both pre-industrial and present trace gases; and the impact on climate and stratospheric ozone of the preindustrial trace gases and aerosols by themselves. The results showed that: (1) the Maunder Minimum cooling relative to today was primarily associated with reduced anthropogenic radiative forcing, although the solar reduction added 40% to the overall cooling. There is no obvious distinguishing surface climate pattern between the two forcings. (2)The global and tropical response was greater than 1 C, in a model with a sensitivity of 1.2 C per W m-2. To reproduce recent low-end estimates would require a sensitivity 1/4 as large. (3) The global surface temperature change was similar when using the total and spectral irradiance prescriptions, although the tropical response was somewhat greater with the former, and the stratospheric response greater with the latter. (4) Most experiments produce a relative negative phase of the NAO/AO during the Maunder Minimum, with both solar and anthropogenic forcing equally capable, associated with the tropical cooling and relative poleward EP flux refraction. (5) A full stratosphere appeared to be necessary for the negative AO/NAO phase, as was the case with this model for global warming experiments, unless the cooling was very large, while the ozone response played a minor role and did not influence surface temperature significantly. (6) Stratospheric ozone was most affected by the difference between present day and preindustrial atmospheric composition and chemistry, with increases in the upper and lower stratosphere during the Maunder Minimum. While the estimated UV reduction led to ozone decreases, this was generally less important than the anthropogenic effect except in the upper middle stratosphere, as judged by two different ozone photochemistry schemes. (7) The effect of the reduced solar irradiance on stratospheric ozone and on climate was similar in Maunder Minimum and current atmospheric conditions.

Rind, David↗
NASA NTRS1983

Numerical simulations of loops heated to solar flare temperatures. I - Gasdynamics. II - X-ray and UV spectroscopy

The NRL's Dynamic Flux Tube Model is used to numerically simulate the dynamic response of a coronal magnetic loop to an energy input of the order encountered in solar flares. The coronal plasma is heated by the deposition of flare energy at the top of the loop to more than 10 million K, yielding a conduction front that moves toward the chromosphere, where the plasma is heated by the large downward conductive flux and ablates upward to the coronal part of the loop at velocities of a few hundred km/sec. The conduction front simultaneously produces chromospheric ablation and compresses the material ahead of it. With the aid of compressional instabilities, the compressed plasma grows throughout the flare heating phase, presenting a possible source of the flare optical continuum emission which is correlated with soft X-ray radiation. The observational consequences of rapidly heated loop gas dynamic processes are discussed. In the second part of this presentation, the dynamical calculation results previously obtained are used to predict the spectral line intensities, profiles and wavelengths of several X-ray lines and the UV line of Fe XXI at 1354.1 A. Three different viewing orientations of the loop are considered.

Cheng, C.-C.↗
NASA NTRS1994

The solar cycle variation of ozone in the stratosphere inferred from Nimbus 7 and NOAA 11 satellites

The combined Nimbus 7 solar backscattered ultraviolet (SBUV) and NOAA 11 SBUV/2 ozone data, covering a period of more than a solar cycle (about 15 years), are used to study the UV response of ozone in the stratosphere. The study shows that about 2% change in total column ozone and about 5-7% change in ozone mixing ratio in the upper stratosphere (0.7 to 2 hPa) may be attributed to the change in the solar UV flux over a solar cycle. In the upper stratosphere, where photochemical processes are expected to play a major role, the measured solar cycle variation of ozone is significantly larger than inferred either from the photochemical models or from the ozone response to the 27-day solar UV modulation. For example, the observed solar cycle related change in ozone mixing ratio at 2 hPa is about 1% for 1% change in the solar UV flux near 200 nm. The inferred change in ozone from either the photochemical models or from the 27-day ozone-UV response is about a factor of 2-3 lower than this value.

Chandra, S.↗
NASA NTRS1989

The solar wind mass flux

One of the unexplained observations of the solar wind at 1 AU is the relative constancy of the solar wind mass flux. Calculations using a radiative energy balance model with a thermally driven wind suggest that this near constancy of the mass (particle) flux is due to two factors: (1) the role of inward conduction and radiation in cooling the corona, and (2) the finding that the particle flux is proportional to the gas pressure in the outer corona and beyond, where the solar wind flow becomes radial.

Withbroe, George L.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Radiative transfer in cirrus clouds from airborne flux and microphysical measurements during FIRE 86

Microphysical and radiation measurements from three case studies during FIRE 86 are presented and analyzed. Calculated solar and infrared flux profiles are compared to measured flux values for the studies. The flux comparison shows that the modeled cirrus cloud underestimates cloud extinction, especially near the cloud base, where modeled extinctions are largest. The large downward solar attenuation near the cloud base cannot be matched, while the modeled solar reflection is too small. Most of this difference is attributed to an underestimation of cloud optical depth in the model. Modeling difficulties and difficulties in the measurements are discussed. It is proposed that, in order to assure a more useful flux comparison, field experiment set-ups and instrumentation as well as the modeling of cirrus clouds need to be improved.

Kinne, S.↗
NASA NTRS1992

The role of predicted solar activity in TOPEX/Poseidon orbit maintenance maneuver design

Following launch in June 1992, the TOPEX/Poseidon satellite will be placed in a near-circular frozen orbit at an altitude of about 1336 km. Orbit maintenance maneuvers are planned to assure all nodes of the 127-orbit 10-day repeat ground track remain within a 2 km equatorial longitude bandwidth. Orbit determination, maneuver execution, and atmospheric drag prediction errors limit overall targeting performance. This paper focuses on the effects of drag modeling errors, with primary emphasis on the role of SESC solar activity predictions, especially the 27-day outlook of the 10.7 cm solar flux and geomagnetic index used by a simplified version of the Jacchia-Roberts density model developed for this TOPEX/Poseidon application. For data evaluated from 1983-90, the SESC outlook performed better than a simpler persistence strategy, especially during the first 7-10 days. A targeting example illustrates the use of ground track biasing to compensate for expected orbit predictions errors, emphasizing the role of solar activity prediction errors.

Frauenholz, Raymond B.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Lifetime predictions for the Solar Maximum Mission (SMM) and San Marco spacecraft

Lifetime prediction techniques developed by the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) Flight Dynamics Division (FDD) are described. These techniques were developed to predict the Solar Maximum Mission (SMM) spacecraft orbit, which is decaying due to atmospheric drag, with reentry predicted to occur before the end of 1989. Lifetime predictions were also performed for the Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF), which was deployed on the 1984 SMM repair mission and is scheduled for retrieval on another Space Transportation System (STS) mission later this year. Concepts used in the lifetime predictions were tested on the San Marco spacecraft, which reentered the Earth's atmosphere on December 6, 1988. Ephemerides predicting the orbit evolution of the San Marco spacecraft until reentry were generated over the final 90 days of the mission when the altitude was less than 380 kilometers. The errors in the predicted ephemerides are due to errors in the prediction of atmospheric density variations over the lifetime of the satellite. To model the time dependence of the atmospheric densities, predictions of the solar flux at the 10.7-centimeter wavelength were used in conjunction with Harris-Priester (HP) atmospheric density tables. Orbital state vectors, together with the spacecraft mass and area, are used as input to the Goddard Trajectory Determination System (GTDS). Propagations proceed in monthly segments, with the nominal atmospheric drag model scaled for each month according to the predicted monthly average value of F10.7. Calibration propagations are performed over a period of known orbital decay to obtain the effective ballistic coefficient. Progagations using plus or minus 2 sigma solar flux predictions are also generated to estimate the despersion in expected reentry dates. Definitive orbits are compared with these predictions as time expases. As updated vectors are received, these are also propagated to reentryto continually update the lifetime predictions.

Smith, E. A.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Transport and photochemical modeling. Studies of atmospheric species

A program of research studies related to the photochemistry, radiative transfer, and dynamics of the stratosphere is described. Investigations were conducted in two broad areas: (1) studies of the stratospheric processes and their response to external perturbations, and (2) analysis of satellite measurements in conjunction with theoretical models. Contemporary one dimensional photochemical, radiative-convective model was used to assess the impact of perturbations such as solar flux variability, increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide, chlorofluoromethanes and other greenhouse gases. Data from satellite experiments such as LIMS and SBUV, were used along with theoretical models to develop a climatology of trace species in the stratosphere. The consistency of contemporary ozone photochemistry was examined in the light of LIMS data. Research work also includes analysis of stratospheric nitrogen dioxide distributions from different satellite experiments, investigation of the wintertime latitudinal gradients in NO2, estimation of the stratospheric odd nitrogen level and its variability, and studies related to the changes in ozone in the Antarctic, and mid latitude Southern Hemisphere.

Natarajan, M.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Coronal Plumes in the Fast Solar Wind

The expansion of a coronal hole filled with a discrete number of higher density coronal plumes is simulated using a time-dependent two-dimensional code. A solar wind model including an exponential coronal heating function and a flux of Alfven waves propagating both inside and outside the structures is taken as a basic state. Different plasma plume profiles are obtained by using different scale heights for the heating rates. Remote sensing and solar wind in situ observations are used to constrain the parameter range of the study. Time dependence due to plume ignition and disappearance is also discussed. Velocity differences of the order of approximately 50 km/s, such as those found in microstreams in the high-speed solar wind, may be easily explained by slightly different heat deposition profiles in different plumes. Statistical pressure balance in the fast wind data may be masked by the large variety of body and surface waves which the higher density filaments may carry, so the absence of pressure balance in the microstreams should not rule out their interpretation as the extension of coronal plumes into interplanetary space. Mixing of plume-interplume material via the Kelvin-Helmholtz instability seems to be possible within the parameter ranges of the models defined here, only at large di stances from the Sun, beyond 0.2-0.3 AU. Plasma and composition measurements in the inner heliosphere, such as those which will become available with Solar Orbiter and Solar Probe Plus, should therefore definitely be able to identify plume remnants in the solar wind.

Velli, Marco↗
NASA NTRS1987

A two-fluid model for solar wind fluid with higher order moments

A spherically symmetric two-fluid model for the solar wind with higher-order moments is presented. In this model, continuity, momentum, temperature and heat flux equations for two components (electrons and protrons) in steady solar wind states are simultaneously solved by using a time-dependent method. This work is used to compare solutions of the steady-state solar wind with and without higher order moments, and to study the effects of thermal conduction. The coupling between electrons and protrons is also given special attention. The numerical solutions of the steady-state solar wind in both subsonic and supersonic regions between the Sun and 1 AU are obtained and graphically illustrated.

Wang, Jingfang↗
NASA NTRS2000

Correlative Aspects of the Solar Electron Neutrino Flux and Solar Activity

Between 1970 and 1994, the Homestake Solar Neutrino Detector obtained 108 observations of the solar electron neutrino flux (less than 0.814 MeV). The "best fit" values derived from these observations suggest an average daily production rate of about 0.485 Ar-37 atom per day, a rate equivalent to about 2.6 SNU (solar neutrino units) or about a factor of 3 below the expected rate from the standard solar model. In order to explain, at least, a portion of this discrepancy, some researchers have speculated that the flux of solar neutrinos is variable, possibly being correlated with various markers of the solar cycle (e.g., sunspot number, the Ap index, etc.). In this paper, using the larger "standard data set," the issue of correlative behavior between solar electron neutrino flux and solar activity is re-examined. The results presented here clearly indicate that no statistically significant association exists between any of the usual markers of solar activity and the solar electron neutrino flux.

Wilson, Robert M.↗
NASA NTRS2017

CIMI Simulations with Newly Developed Multiparameter Chorus and Plasmaspheric Hiss Wave Models

Numerical simulation studies of the Earth's radiation belts are important to understand the acceleration and loss of energetic electrons. The Comprehensive Inner Magnetosphere-Ionosphere (CIMI) model considers the effects of the ring current and plasmasphere on the radiation belts to obtain plausible results. The CIMI model incorporates pitch angle, energy, and cross diffusion of electrons, due to chorus and plasmaspheric hiss waves. These parameters are calculated using statistical wave distribution models of chorus and plasmaspheric hiss amplitudes. However, currently, these wave distribution models are based only on a single-parameter, geomagnetic index (AE) and could potentially underestimate the wave amplitudes. Here we incorporate recently developed multiparameter chorus and plasmaspheric hiss wave models based on geomagnetic index and solar wind parameters. We then perform CIMI simulations for two geomagnetic storms and compare the flux enhancement of megavolt electrons with data from the Van Allen Probes and Akebono satellites. We show that the relativistic electron fluxes calculated with multiparameter wave models resemble the observations more accurately than the relativistic electron fluxes calculated with single-parameter wave models. This indicates that wave models based on a combination of geomagnetic index and solar wind parameters are more effective as inputs to radiation belt models.

Aryan, Homayon↗
NASA NTRS2010

Spacecraft Solar Particle Event (SPE) Shielding: Shielding Effectiveness as a Function of SPE model as Determined with the FLUKA Radiation Transport Code

Analysis of both satellite and surface neutron monitor data demonstrate that the widely utilized Exponential model of solar particle event (SPE) proton kinetic energy spectra can seriously underestimate SPE proton flux, especially at the highest kinetic energies. The more recently developed Band model produces better agreement with neutron monitor data ground level events (GLEs) and is believed to be considerably more accurate at high kinetic energies. Here, we report the results of modeling and simulation studies in which the radiation transport code FLUKA (FLUktuierende KAskade) is used to determine the changes in total ionizing dose (TID) and single-event environments (SEE) behind aluminum, polyethylene, carbon, and titanium shielding masses when the assumed form (i. e., Band or Exponential) of the solar particle event (SPE) kinetic energy spectra is changed. FLUKA simulations have fully three dimensions with an isotropic particle flux incident on a concentric spherical shell shielding mass and detector structure. The effects are reported for both energetic primary protons penetrating the shield mass and secondary particle showers caused by energetic primary protons colliding with shielding mass nuclei. Our results, in agreement with previous studies, show that use of the Exponential form of the event

Koontz, Steve↗
NASA NTRS1993

Numerical simulation of Ulysses nutation

A numerical simulation has been performed on the in-orbit instability of the Ulysses Spacecraft. The thermal excitation from the solar flux, the flexible axial boom and its deployment mechanism have been modeled and analyzed. The simulation shows that the nutation build-up has been originated by the solar input on the axial boom coupled with the system nutation frequency of the spacecraft. The results agree with the observed behavior.

Marirrodriga, C. Garcia↗
NASA NTRS1984

Numerical simulations of loops heated to solar flare temperatures. III - Asymmetrical heating

A numerical model is defined for asymmetric full solar flare loop heating and comparisons are made with observational data. The Dynamic Flux Tube Model is used to describe the heating process in terms of one-dimensional, two fluid conservation equations of mass, energy and momentum. An adaptive grid allows for the downward movement of the transition region caused by an advancing conduction front. A loop 20,000 km long is considered, along with a flare heating system and the hydrodynamic evolution of the loop. The model was applied to generating line profiles and spatial X-ray and UV line distributions, which were compared with SMM, P78-1 and Hintori data for Fe, Ca and Mg spectra. Little agreement was obtained, and it is suggested that flares be treated as multi-loop phenomena. Finally, it is concluded that chromospheric evaporation is not an effective mechanism for generating the soft X-ray bursts associated with flares.

Cheng, C.-C.↗
NASA NTRS1976

Gas absorption cell photometer for rocket observations of local interstellar helium

A photometer sensitive in the 584-A line of He I, incorporating a helium-gas absorption cell, has been developed. The helium is confined at a pressure of 0.2 torr between thin-metal-foil broad-band ultraviolet filters. The cell contains sufficient helium to absorb 584-A radiation scattered from atmospheric helium. The ratio of fluxes seen with the cell full and empty provides a valuable datum for fitting models of the local interstellar medium, which is independent of solar 584-A flux, interstellar helium density, and photometer sensitivity.-

Freeman, J.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Dynamics of Coronal Hole Boundaries

Remote and in situ observations strongly imply that the slow solar wind consists of plasma from the hot, closed-field corona that is released onto open magnetic field lines. The Separatrix Web theory for the slow wind proposesthat photospheric motions at the scale of supergranules are responsible for generating dynamics at coronal-holeboundaries, which result in the closed plasma release. We use three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamicsimulations to determine the effect of photospheric flows on the open and closed magnetic flux of a model coronawith a dipole magnetic field and an isothermal solar wind. A rotational surface motion is used to approximatephotospheric supergranular driving and is applied at the boundary between the coronal hole and helmet streamer.The resulting dynamics consist primarily of prolific and efficient interchange reconnection between open andclosed flux. The magnetic flux near the coronal-hole boundary experiences multiple interchange events, with someflux interchanging over 50 times in one day. Additionally, we find that the interchange reconnection occurs allalong the coronal-hole boundary and even produces a lasting change in magnetic-field connectivity in regions thatwere not driven by the applied motions. Our results show that these dynamics should be ubiquitous in the Sun andheliosphere. We discuss the implications of our simulations for understanding the observed properties of the slowsolar wind, with particular focus on the global-scale consequences of interchange reconnection.

Higginson, A. K.↗