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At least 271 records · Page 15

Energy innovation in the US buildings sector: Setting the stage and mapping the future

Jared Langevin is a staff scientist at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, where he leads modeling of US buildings sector innovation and its implications for energy demand, consumer costs, and the power grid. Eric Wilson is a senior research engineer in the Building Technologies and Sciences Center at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). Much of his 15-year career at NREL has revolved around modeling and analysis of the US building stock. Jared and Eric co-led the development of a National Blueprint for buildings sector innovation while serving as advisors to the US Department of Energy’s Deputy Assistant Secretary for Buildings and Industry.

Langevin, Jared↗

Hydropower operation in future power grid with various renewable power integration

Hydropower generation may play an increasingly important role in the power grid under increasing contribution of variable renewable sources such as wind and solar. An improved understanding of the changes to hydropower dispatch under future higher VRE grid conditions reveals research gap that should be informed power grid planning and reservoir water releases policies considering multiple other water uses and varying hydrologic condition. Here this study aims to understand the role of hydropower in a changing power grid by employing a production cost model, PLEXOS, across future power system scenarios, planning horizons, and regions. We explore optimized hydropower dispatch to understand its potential role in minimizing the system cost and renewable curtailment. We also examine the sensitivity of hydropower revenue under various grid scenarios of the Eastern U.S. and hydrology conditions. Results indicate hydropower generation follows net load and compensates for the variability of solar and wind generation. Although energy prices are lower during some periods in the future grid scenarios, there is a potential for higher revenue for hydropower by providing both energy and ancillary services during times of stress. Additionally, hydropower revenue is sensitive to hydrology in the SERC region, which we considered as an example. The feasibility of hydropower dispatching with higher ramps between low and high hourly-capacity factors, as indicated in the optimization model, requires further study to consider other water use and ecology constraints.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Self-sustaining sound in collisionless, high- β plasma

Using analytical theory and hybrid-kinetic numerical simulations, we demonstrate that, in a collisionless plasma, long-wavelength ion-acoustic waves (IAWs) with amplitudes $δn/n_0≳2/β$ (where $β\gg1$ is the ratio of thermal to magnetic pressure) generate sufficient pressure anisotropy to destabilize the plasma to firehose and mirror instabilities. These kinetic instabilities grow rapidly to reduce the pressure anisotropy by pitch-angle scattering and trapping particles, respectively, thereby impeding the maintenance of Landau resonances that enable such waves’ otherwise potent collisionless damping. The result is wave dynamics that evince a weakly collisional plasma: the ion distribution function is near-Maxwellian, the field-parallel flow of heat resembles its Braginskii form (except in regions where large-amplitude magnetic mirrors strongly suppress particle transport), and the relations between various thermodynamic quantities are more ‘fluid-like’ than kinetic. A nonlinear fluctuation–dissipation relation for self-sustaining IAWs is obtained by solving a plasma-kinetic Langevin problem, which demonstrates suppressed damping, enhanced fluctuation levels and weakly collisional thermodynamics when IAWs with $δn/n_0≳2/β$ are stochastically driven. We investigate how our results depend upon the scale separation between the wavelength of the IAW and the Larmor radius of the ions, and discuss briefly their implications for our understanding of turbulence and transport in the solar wind and the intracluster medium of galaxy clusters.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Microphysically modified magnetosonic modes in collisionless, high-β plasmas

With the support of hybrid-kinetic simulations and analytic theory, we describe the nonlinear behaviour of long-wavelength non-propagating (NP) modes and fast magnetosonic waves in high-β collisionless plasmas, with particular attention to their excitation of and reaction to kinetic micro-instabilities. The perpendicularly pressure balanced polarization of NP modes produces an excess of perpendicular pressure over parallel pressure in regions where the plasma β is increased. For mode amplitudes |δB/B 0 |≳0.3, this excess excites the mirror instability. Particle scattering off these micro-scale mirrors frustrates the nonlinear saturation of transit-time damping, ensuring that large-amplitude NP modes continue their decay to small amplitudes. At asymptotically large wavelengths, we predict that the mirror-induced scattering will be large enough to interrupt transit-time damping entirely, isotropizing the pressure perturbations and morphing the collisionless NP mode into the magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) entropy mode. In fast waves, a fluctuating pressure anisotropy drives both mirror and firehose instabilities when the wave amplitude satisfies |δB/B 0 |≳2β -1 . The induced particle scattering leads to delayed shock formation and MHD-like wave dynamics. Taken alongside prior work on self-interrupting Alfvén waves and self-sustaining ion-acoustic waves, our results establish a foundation for new theories of electromagnetic turbulence in low-collisionality, high-β plasmas such as the intracluster medium, radiatively inefficient accretion flows and the near-Earth solar wind.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Quadruple Langmuir probe characterization of different fuel gases in a plasma deflagration accelerator

Astrophysical flows may be studied by reproducing similar conditions using a coaxial plasma accelerator operating in the deflagration regime (or plasma deflagration accelerator). This allows for the recreation and investigation of dynamics present in complex highly coupled plasma systems at the laboratory scale. Here we report on measurements of the plasma density, temperature, plasma potential and velocity found using a quadruple Langmuir probe (QLP) on such a deflagration accelerator in the form of the Stanford Coaxial High ENerGy (CHENG) device operating with multiple gases – specifically argon, nitrogen and hydrogen. Experiments show a general decrease in bulk plasma velocity with gas atomic mass from upwards of 120 km s –1 with hydrogen to less than 30 km s –1 with argon. There was an accompanying increase in peak plasma density with increasing atomic mass from ~3 × 10 20 m –3 with hydrogen to ~1.5 × 10 21 m –3 with argon. It was found that the momentum flux and internal energy density also generally increase with atomic mass while the particle flux is constant between shots. Further investigation is needed to understand these correlations and the underlying physics. Lastly, comparisons with scaling laws show that while the CHENG device may be operated in such a way as to simulate the effects of bulk solar wind movement, it may not properly capture the thermal effects.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Self-organization in collisionless, high- β turbulence

The magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) equations, as a collisional fluid model that remains in local thermodynamic equilibrium (LTE), have long been used to describe turbulence in myriad space and astrophysical plasmas. Yet, the vast majority of these plasmas, from the solar wind to the intracluster medium (ICM) of galaxy clusters, are only weakly collisional at best, meaning that significant deviations from LTE are not only possible but common. Recent studies have demonstrated that the kinetic physics inherent to this weakly collisional regime can fundamentally transform the evolution of such plasmas across a wide range of scales. Here, we explore the consequences of pressure anisotropy and Larmor-scale instabilities for collisionless, β $\gg$ 1, turbulence, focusing on the role of a self-organizational effect known as ‘magneto-immutability’. We describe this self-organization analytically through a high-β, reduced ordering of the Chew–Goldberger–Low-MHD (CGL-MHD) equations, finding that it is a robust inertial-range effect that dynamically suppresses magnetic-field-strength fluctuations, anisotropic-pressure stresses and dissipation due to heat fluxes. As a result, the turbulent cascade of Alfvénic fluctuations continues below the putative viscous scale to form a robust, nearly conservative, MHD-like inertial range. These findings are confirmed numerically via Landau-fluid CGL-MHD turbulence simulations that employ a collisional closure to mimic the effects of microinstabilities. We find that microinstabilities occupy a small (~5%) volume-filling fraction of the plasma, even when the pressure anisotropy is driven strongly towards its instability thresholds. We discuss these results in the context of recent predictions for ion-vs-electron heating in low-luminosity accretion flows and observations implying suppressed viscosity in ICM turbulence.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

The CHIMERAS project: design framework for the Collisionless HIgh-beta Magnetized Experiment Researching Astrophysical Systems

From the near-Earth solar wind to the intracluster medium of galaxy clusters, collisionless, high-beta, magnetized plasmas pervade our universe. Energy and momentum transport from large-scale fields and flows to small-scale motions of plasma particles is ubiquitous in these systems, but a full picture of the underlying physical mechanisms remains elusive. The transfer is often mediated by a turbulent cascade of Alfvénic fluctuations as well as a variety of kinetic instabilities; these processes tend to be multi-scale and/or multi-dimensional, which makes them difficult to study using spacecraft missions and numerical simulations alone. Meanwhile, existing laboratory devices struggle to produce the collisionless, high ion beta (β i ≳ 1), magnetized plasmas across the range of scales necessary to address these problems. As envisioned in recent community planning documents, it is therefore important to build a next generation laboratory facility to create a β i ≳ 1, collisionless, magnetized plasma in the laboratory for the first time. A working group has been formed and is actively defining the necessary technical requirements to move the facility towards a construction-ready state. Recent progress includes the development of target parameters and diagnostic requirements as well as the identification of a need for source-target device geometry. As the working group is already leading to new synergies across the community, we anticipate a broad community of users funded by a variety of federal agencies (including National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Department of Energy and National Science Foundation) to make copious use of the future facility.

astrophysical plasmas↗

Thermodynamics and collisionality in firehose-susceptible high- β plasmas

We study the evolution of collisionless plasmas that, due to their macroscopic evolution, are susceptible to the firehose instability, using both analytic theory and hybrid-kinetic particle-in-cell simulations. We establish that, depending on the relative magnitude of the plasma β, the characteristic time scale of macroscopic evolution and the ion-Larmor frequency, the saturation of the firehose instability in high-β plasmas can result in three qualitatively distinct thermodynamic (and electromagnetic) states. By contrast with the previously identified ‘ultra-high-beta’ and ‘Alfvén-inhibiting’ states, the newly identified ‘Alfvén-enabling’ state, which is realised when the macroscopic evolution time τ exceeds the ion-Larmor frequency by a β-dependent critical parameter, can support linear Alfvén waves and Alfvénic turbulence because the magnetic tension associated with the plasma’s macroscopic magnetic field is never completely negated by anisotropic pressure forces. We characterise these states in detail, including their saturated magnetic-energy spectra. The effective collision operator associated with the firehose fluctuations is also described; we find it to be well approximated in the Alfvén-enabling state by a simple quasi-linear pitch-angle scattering operator. The box-averaged collision frequency is ν eff ∼ β/τ, in agreement with previous results, but certain subpopulations of particles scatter at a much larger (or smaller) rate depending on their velocity in the direction parallel to the magnetic field. Our findings are essential for understanding low-collisionality astrophysical plasmas including the solar wind, the intracluster medium of galaxy clusters and black hole accretion flows. We show that all three of these plasmas are in the Alfvén-enabling regime of firehose saturation and discuss the implications of this result.

astrophysical plasmas↗

Simultaneous Observations of Electromagnetic Ion Cyclotron (EMIC) Waves and Pitch Angle Scattering During a Van Allen Probes Conjunction

On 22 December 2015, the two Van Allen Probes observed two sets of electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) wave bursts during a close conjunction when both Probe A and Probe B were separated by 0.57 to 0.68 R E . Here, the EMIC waves occurred during an active period in the recovery phase of a coronal mass ejection-driven geomagnetic storm. Both spacecraft observed EMIC wave bursts that had similar spatial structure within a 1–2 min time delay. The EMIC waves occurred outside the plasmasphere, within ΔL ≈ 1–2 of the plasmapause and within a few degrees in magnetic latitude of the equatorial plane. The spatial structure of the EMIC wave bursts may have been related to the proton drift paths outside the plasmasphere and influenced by total magnetic field strength variations associated with solar wind pressure enhancements. The EMIC waves were observed in a narrow L shell region from L ≈ 4.55–5.32 between 10 and 11 magnetic local time (MLT) on the outbound halves of the spacecraft orbits and from L ≈ 4.82–5.51 between 13 and 14 MLT on the inbound halves of the spacecraft orbits. However, Pc1 pulsations were observed on the ground over a broad range of local times. The anisotropy of the proton pitch angle distributions was enhanced when the EMIC waves were observed. Although the overall radiation belt response during this storm was dominated by acceleration and transport processes, the EMIC waves produced local pitch angle scattering of 13–15 keV protons and 2.1–2.6 MeV electrons, consistent with calculations of the expected resonant energies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Forecasting Megaelectron-Volt Electrons Inside Earth's Outer Radiation Belt: PreMevE 2.0 Based on Supervised Machine Learning Algorithms

We present the recent progress in upgrading a predictive model for megaelectron-volt (MeV) electrons inside the Earth's outer Van Allen belt. This updated model, called PreMevE 2.0, provides improved forecasts, particularly at outer L-shells, by adding upstream solar wind speeds to the model's input parameter list that originally includes precipitating electrons observed at low Earth orbits and MeV electron fluxes in situ measured by a geosynchronous satellite. Furthermore, based on several kinds of linear and artificial neural networks algorithms, a list of models was constructed, trained, validated, and tested with 42-month MeV electron observations from Van Allen Probes. Out-of-sample test results from these models show that, with optimized model hyperparameters and input parameter combinations, the top performer from each category of models has the similar capability of making reliable 1-day (2-day) forecasts of 1-MeV electron flux distributions with performance efficiency values ~0.87 (~0.82) averaged over the L-shell range of 2.8–6.6, significantly outperforming the previous version of PreMevE particularly at L-shells > ~4.5. Interestingly, the linear regression model is often the most successful when compared to other models, which suggests the relationship between dynamics of trapped 1-MeV electrons and precipitating electrons is dominated by linear components. Results also show that PreMevE 2.0 can reasonably well predict the onsets of MeV electron events in 2-day forecasts. PreMevE 2.0 is designed to be driven by observations from longstanding space infrastructure to make high-fidelity forecasts for MeV electrons, thus can be an invaluable space weather forecasting tool for the future.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Solitary Magnetic Structures at Quasi–Parallel Collisionless Shocks: Formation

Solitary magnetic structures known as SLAMS (short large-amplitude magnetic structures) have been considered as essential elements of collisionless shocks with quasi-parallel geometries. Yet the physics underlying their formation remains an open question. In this paper, we use measurements from the magnetospheric multiscale mission combined with fully kinetic simulations to study the formation of SLAMS. We find that gyro-resonance between solar wind ions and right-hand circularly polarized electromagnetic waves results in magnetic field amplification. Gyro-trapping by the growing magnetic field builds up the plasma density that further enhances the current and field. The solitary nature of SLAMS stems from a beat-like magnetic field envelope where the maximum sets the initial location for nonlinear growth. Our results present a conceptual advance on SLAMS, and may shed new light on the open question of magnetic field amplification at astrophysical shocks.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Why Are There so Few Reports of High-Energy Electron Drift Resonances? Role of Radial Phase Space Density Gradients

Models of monochromatic Pc5 (2–7 mHz) ultralow frequency (ULF) wave interactions with high energy (greater than ~1 MeV) electrons predict drift resonant interactions that can cause rapid radial transport and acceleration. There are few reports of electron drift resonance at energies greater than ~1 MeV, in contrast to lower energies; moreover, all previous reports occur in the aftermath of interplanetary shocks. These two facts are difficult to reconcile with theory and numerical simulations predicting that greater than ~1 MeV drift resonances should occur more often and in a wider variety of driving conditions. In this study, we show that a combination of observational sampling biases and nominal radial phase space density gradients is one explanation for this discrepancy between theory and observations. In particular, we examine electron dynamics in two case studies with very similar satellite coverage, solar wind conditions, and Pc5 wave properties, yet with different radial phase space density profiles. Using global wave and particle observations, we show that the events have vastly different particle responses despite having similar wave properties. Placing these results in context with past studies, we further show here that nominal radial PSD gradients near geostationary orbit can mask the expected drift resonance particle response and explain (1) the small number of past greater than ~1 MeV drift resonance reports and (2) the restriction of these reports to interplanetary shock events. We argue that future observational studies characterizing radial transport via drift resonance should examine global particle dynamics, including observations of the radial phase space density profile.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Superthermal Electron Deposition on the Mars Nightside During ICMEs

Superthermal electron precipitation is one of the main sources supporting the Mars nightside ionosphere. It is expected that solar wind electron fluxes are to increase significantly during interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) and therefore an enhanced nightside ionospheric density. This study is to quantify the variation of the precipitating and deposited electron fluxes during five extreme ICMEs encountered by Mars Global Surveyor (MGS). We find that energy fluxes correlate better with the upstream dynamic pressure proxy than number fluxes and electron fluxes increase more at high energies, which means that electrons tend to have a lower peak production altitude during storm times. The precipitating and net/deposited fluxes are increased up to an order of magnitude from low to high dynamic pressures. The estimated total electron content (TEC) is a few times of 10 14 m -2 for quiet times and on the order of 1015 m -2 for storm times, with an enhancement up to an order of magnitude locally near strong crustal fields. Crustal magnetic fields have an effect on the deposited fluxes with more prominent magnetic reflection over strong magnetic fields during quiet periods, which is significantly reduced during storm times. Lastly, we estimate a global energy input from downward fluxes of 1.1 × 10 8 and 5.5 × 10 8 W and the globally deposited energy from net fluxes of 2.0 × 10 7 and 1.6 × 10 8 W for quiet and storm time periods, a factor of 5 and 8 enhancement globally, respectively, but up to an order of magnitude locally near strong crustal fields.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Global Hybrid Simulations of Interaction Between Interplanetary Rotational Discontinuity and Bow Shock/Magnetosphere: Can Ion-Scale Magnetic Reconnection be Driven by Rotational Discontinuity Downstream of Quasi-Parallel Shock?

Ion-scale magnetic reconnection has been observed downstream of the terrestrial quasi-parallel (Q-∥) shock. Whether it is driven by interplanetary discontinuities or turbulent Q-∥ shock, however, is unclear. Using three-dimensional global hybrid simulation, we investigate the generation of magnetic reconnection downstream of the Q-∥ shock, while an interplanetary rotational discontinuity (RD) is launched to the bow shock. Cases with various solar wind Alfvén Mach numbers, M A = 3.0 to 8, and propagation directions of the RD are presented. The propagation direction n is assumed to be in the GSE xz plane and pointing earthward, with n = (-sin(θ 12 /2),0,-cos(θ 12 /2)), where θ 12 is the angle between the upstream (B1) and downstream (B2) magnetic fields across the transmitted RD. It is found that magnetic reconnection occurs inside the RD downstream of the Q-∥ shock, forming flux ropes extending along the dawn-dusk direction about tens of ion inertial lengths. Large-amplitude low-frequency waves originated from the Q-∥ shock lead to the bending and squeezing of the field lines around the RD, which play an important role in triggering reconnection inside the RD. As the RD impacts the dayside magnetopause, magnetopause reconnection takes place between the field lines behind the RD and geomagnetic field lines. Nevertheless, no reconnection is found downstream of the Q-∥ shock itself or outside the RD in the magnetosheath. The existent and structure of reconnection in the magnetosheath are found to strongly depend on the parameters M A and n. Our simulation shows that ion-scale magnetic reconnection is driven by an external driver in the form of the compression of an RD around the bow shock and in the magnetosheath, rather than caused by the turbulent Q-∥ shock alone.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Medium Energy Electron Flux in Earth's Outer Radiation Belt (MERLIN): A Machine Learning Model

The radiation belts of the Earth, filled with energetic electrons, comprise complex and dynamic systems that pose a significant threat to satellite operation. While various models of electron flux both for low and relativistic energies have been developed, the behavior of medium energy (120–600 keV) electrons, especially in the MEO region, remains poorly quantified. At these energies, electrons are driven by both convective and diffusive transport, and their prediction usually requires sophisticated 4D modeling codes. In this paper, we present an alternative approach using the Light Gradient Boosting (LightGBM) machine learning algorithm. The Medium Energy electRon fLux In Earth's outer radiatioN belt (MERLIN) model takes as input the satellite position, a combination of geomagnetic indices and solar wind parameters including the time history of velocity, and does not use persistence. MERLIN is trained on >15 years of the GPS electron flux data and tested on more than 1.5 years of measurements. Tenfold cross validation yields that the model predicts the MEO radiation environment well, both in terms of dynamics and amplitudes o f flux. Evaluation on the test set shows high correlation between the predicted and observed electron flux (0.8) and low values of absolute error. The MERLIN model can have wide space weather applications, providing information for the scientific community in the form of radiation belts reconstructions, as well as industry for satellite mission design, nowcast of the MEO environment, and surface charging analysis.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Magnetopause Reconnection and Indents Induced by Foreshock Turbulence

Abstract Based on global hybrid simulation results, we predict that foreshock turbulence can reach the magnetopause and lead to reconnection as well as Earth‐sized indents. Both the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) and solar wind are constant in our simulation, and hence, all dynamics are generated by foreshock instabilities. The IMF in the simulation is mostly Sun‐Earth aligned with a weak northward and zero dawn‐dusk component, such that subsolar magnetopause reconnection is not expected without foreshock turbulence modifying the magnetosheath fields. We show a reconnection example to illustrate that the turbulence can create large magnetic shear angles across the magnetopause to induce local bursty reconnection. Magnetopause reconnection and indents developed from the impact of foreshock turbulence can potentially contribute to dayside loss of planetary plasmas.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Automated Classification of Plasma Regions Using 3D Particle Energy Distributions

We investigate the properties of the ion sky maps produced by the Dual Ion Spectrometers (DIS) from the Fast Plasma Investigation (FPI). We have trained a convolutional neural network classifier to predict four regions crossed by the Magnetospheric Multiscale Mission (MMS) on the dayside magnetosphere: solar wind, ion foreshock, magnetosheath, and magnetopause using solely DIS spectrograms. The accuracy of the classifier is urn:x-wiley:21699380:media:jgra56742:jgra56742-math-0001%. We use the classifier to detect mixed plasma regions, in particular to find the bow shock regions. A similar approach can be used to identify the magnetopause crossings and reveal regions prone to magnetic reconnection. Data processing through the trained classifier is fast and efficient and thus can be used for classification for the whole MMS database.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The Helicity Sign of Flux Transfer Event Flux Ropes and Its Relationship to the Guide Field and Hall Physics in Magnetic Reconnection at the Magnetopause

Flux Transfer Events (FTEs) are transient magnetic flux ropes typically found at the Earth's magnetopause on the dayside. While it is known that FTEs are generated by magnetic reconnection, it remains unclear how the details of magnetic reconnection controls their properties. A recent study showed that the helicity sign of FTEs positively correlates with the east-west (B y ) component of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF). With data from the Cluster and Magnetospheric Multiscale missions, we performed a statistical study of 166 quasi force-free FTEs. We focus on their helicity sign and possible association with upstream solar wind conditions and local magnetic reconnection properties. Using both in situ data and magnetic shear modeling, we find that FTEs whose helicity sign corresponds to the IMF B y are associated with moderate magnetic shears while those that do not correspond to the IMF B y are associated with higher magnetic shears. While uncertainty in IMF propagation to the magnetopause may lead to randomness in the determination of the flux rope core field and helicity, we rather propose that for small IMF B y , which corresponds to high shear and low guide field, the Hall pattern of magnetic reconnection determines the FTE core field and helicity sign. In that context we explain how the temporal sequence of multiple X-line formation and the reconnection rate are important in determining the flux rope helicity sign. This work highlights a fundamental connection between kinetic processes at work in magnetic reconnection and the macroscale structure of FTEs.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗