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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 271 records · Page 15
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

EFBMC

SAND2026-23986O EFBMC performs elastic Bayesian model calibration by applying Bayesian statistics and functional analysis. The software provides Python, R, and MATLAB scripts that enable users to calibrate models. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Tucker, J. Derek [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), L↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data-driven modeling of dynamic occupant thermostat override behavior for demand response applications

Buildings consume nearly 40% of global energy and produce similar emissions. Whiletechnological advances address efficiency, occupant behavior causes energy use variations up to 300% between identical buildings. This gap between predicted and actual building performance impacts building design, operations, and grid demand management programs. Through analyses of smart thermostat data from 1,400 single-occupant homes, the researchdemonstrates that occupants respond to 8°F thermostat setpoint changes within a median of 15 minutes, while 2°F changes trigger responses within a median of 30 minutes. This highlights an understudied temporal relationship between thermostat setbacks and response time of occupant behaviors. Models of such behavior dynamics are required to incorporate occupant impacts into building performance simulation. A key contribution of this dissertation is the Thermal Frustration Theory (TFT), which positsthat thermal discomfort driven behaviors are caused by the time-accumulation of discomfort, not simply a temperature deviation threshold or a delay from an initiating event. Using a dataset of 634 thermostats, each with 25+ manual setpoint changes, a comparative analysis of TFT and comfort zone and a delayed response theories demonstrated that personalized TFT models better predict when manual setpoint change occur. This was measured by the area under the curve statistical measure (AUC); all three models perform similarly by a Matthews Correlation Coefficient measure. Higher AUC performance is especially important for modeling occupant behavior in demand response programs where false negatives of rare occupant interactions could adversely affect grid stability. EnergyPlus based simulations were conducted with TFT-derived occupant models, demonstrating the ability to identify parameters of known TFT models from only data observable with smart thermostats, even under the presence of noise from routine overrides. Overall, the dissertation highlights that thermostat interactions are neither static,instantaneous, nor driven solely by the environment. Instead, temporal accumulation of discomfort and routine-based behavior play important roles. The methodology and results offer a pathway towards more accurate modeling of human-building interactions for policy assessment, building design, and demand response programs.

Sharma, Kunind [Northeastern University] (ORCID:00↗
DOE OSTI2025

High fidelity multiphysics tightly coupled model for a lead cooled fast reactor concept and application to statistical calculation of hot channel factors

A tightly coupled multiphysics code system is established using the MOOSE framework for hot channel factor (HCF) evaluation on a Lead Fast Reactor (LFR) concept. The coupled system is driven by the Griffin multiphysics coupling capability under which the MOOSE Heat Transfer module and NekRS computational fluid dynamics solver are coupled for conjugate heat transfer using the Cardinal application. The coupled capability is demonstrated on an LFR assembly model based on materials and geometry of a prototypical lead-cooled fast reactor design by Westinghouse Electric Company, LLC. Moreover, the work integrates the Multiphysics Object Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) Stochastic Tools Module (STM) to perform calculations for statistical analysis of HCF. Furthermore, the coupling strategy and workflow demonstrated in this paper is not only useful for predicting accurate hot channel factors for different kinds of advanced reactors but also for other engineering applications such as control rod worth assessment, generation of high-fidelity database for Artificial intelligence (AI)/machine learning (ML) training, design optimization and multi-resolution modeling.

Cardinal↗
DOE OSTI2025

Automated Resonance Fitting for Nuclear Data Evaluation

Global and national efforts to deliver high-quality nuclear data to users have a wide-ranging impact, affecting applications in national security, reactor operations, basic science, medicine, and more. Cross section evaluation is a major part of this effort, combining theory and experimentation to produce recommended values and uncertainties for reaction probabilities. Resonance region evaluation is a specialized type of nuclear data evaluation that can require significant manual effort and months of time from expert scientists. In this article, non-convex non-linear optimization methods are combined with concepts of inferential statistics to infer a resonance model from experimental data in an automated manner that is not dependent on prior evaluation(s). This methodology aims to enhance the workflow of a resonance evaluator by minimizing time, effort, and the potential for bias from prior assumptions, while enhancing reproducibility and documentation, thereby addressing well-known challenges in the field.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Unveiling the drivers contributing to global wheat yield shocks through quantile regression

Sudden reductions in crop yield (i.e., yield shocks) severely disrupt the food supply, intensify food insecurity, depress farmers' welfare, and worsen a country's economic conditions. Here, we study the spatiotemporal patterns of wheat yield shocks, quantified by the lower quantiles of yield fluctuations, in 86 countries over 30 years. Furthermore, we assess the relationships between shocks and their key ecological and socioeconomic drivers using quantile regression based on statistical (linear quantile mixed model) and machine learning (quantile random forest) models. Using a panel dataset that captures spatiotemporal patterns of yield shocks and possible drivers in 86 countries, we find that the severity of yield shocks has been increasing globally since 1997. Moreover, our cross-validation exercise shows that quantile random forest outperforms the linear quantile regression model. Despite this performance difference, both models consistently reveal that the severity of shocks is associated with higher weather stress, nitrogen fertilizer application rate, and gross domestic product (GDP) per capita (a typical indicator for economic and technological advancement in a country). While the unexpected negative association between more severe wheat yield shocks and higher fertilizer application rate and GDP per capita does not imply a direct causal effect, they indicate that the advancement in wheat production has been primarily on achieving higher yields and less on lowering the possibility and magnitude of sharp yield reductions. Hence, in the context of growing extreme weather stress, there is a critical need to enhance the technology and management practices that mitigate yield shocks to improve the resilience of the world food systems.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

A quantal diffusion approach for multinucleon transfer in heavy-ion collisions

The stochastic mean-field (SMF) approach beyond the time-dependent-Hartree-Fock theory is used to explore the primary production cross sections in 64 Ni + 130 Te at the bombarding energy E c.m. = 184.3 MeV and 206 Pb + 118 Sn at E c.m. = 436.8 MeV. Secondary production cross-sections in the same systems are calculated using a statistical de-excitation model with GEMINI++ code. Furthermore, the obtained results are compared with available experimental data. Analysis employing SMF and GEMINI++ exhibit a good agreement with the experimental data.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Rapid characterization and failure analysis of 6276 rooftop-harvested photovoltaic connectors

Photovoltaic (PV) connectors, which link modules in series and connect PV strings in parallel, have increasingly been recognized as a primary contributor to PV system failures and a source of numerous fire incidents. However, publicly available data on the rates and types of connector failures are scarce, primarily due to the proprietary nature of the information and the need for comprehensive analysis. This study represents the first large-scale investigation of harvested PV connectors, drawing from a dataset of 6276 connectors from residential rooftop solar systems across the United States. The outcome of this work is twofold: 1) we have established a rapid characterization method for large populations of harvested connectors, incorporating visual inspection, resistance measurements, and X-ray imaging; and 2) the analysis made possible by our rapid-processing method has revealed, for a population of connector models provided by a single rooftop installer, failure statistics and insights for various connector makes and models, installation practices, operating currents, and internal component displacements. This research identifies common failure modes that could be considered in future connector designs standards, and operations and maintenance practices, to ultimately improve the reliability of this vital component of PV infrastructure.

MC4↗
DOE OSTI2025

Molecular fluctuations inhibit intermittency in compressible turbulence

In the standard picture of fully developed turbulence, highly intermittent hydrodynamic fields are nonlinearly coupled across scales, where local energy cascades from large scales into dissipative vortices and large density gradients. Microscopically, however, constituent fluid molecules are in constant thermal (Brownian) motion, but the role of molecular fluctuations in large-scale turbulence is largely unknown, and with rare exceptions, it has historically been considered irrelevant at scales larger than the molecular mean free path. Recent theoretical and computational investigations have shown that molecular fluctuations can impact energy cascade at Kolmogorov length scales. Here, we show that molecular fluctuations not only modify energy spectrum at wavelengths larger than the Kolmogorov length in compressible turbulence, but also significantly inhibit spatio-temporal intermittency across the entire dissipation range. Using large-scale direct numerical simulations of computational fluctuating hydrodynamics, we demonstrate that the extreme intermittency characteristic of turbulence models is replaced by nearly Gaussian statistics in the dissipation range. These results demonstrate that the compressible Navier–Stokes equations should be augmented with molecular fluctuations to accurately predict turbulence statistics across the dissipation range. Our findings have significant consequences for turbulence modelling in applications such as astrophysics, reactive flows and hypersonic aerodynamics, where dissipation-range turbulence is approximated by closure models.

compressible turbulence↗
DOE OSTI2025

What CMIP6 Models Tell Us About the Impact of AMOC Variability on the Arctic

In this paper we address the question whether variability in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and its associated heat transport at mid-latitudes impacts the Arctic Earth system. To that end, we perform coherence analysis on time series of ocean heat transport, AMOC strength, and Arctic climate metrics across a large number of models from the CMIP6 ensemble. We find that, on multidecadal timescales, the majority of CMIP6 models indeed display a statistically significant relationship between AMOC at mid-latitudes (45 °N) and metrics like Arctic surface air temperatures and sea ice. However, our results do not support the narrative that heat transport anomalies at lower latitudes propagate northward toward the Arctic. Instead, our results confirm that variability in meridional ocean heat transport arises in the subpolar North Atlantic and propagates southward and northward.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Optimizing time integration for accurate recovery of shockwave interface location in radiography

We present simulations and experiments of time integrated radiographic imaging of a moving 1D shock wave front and a quantitative method for determining the statistical error in locating the shock front as a function of integration time and noise in the radiograph. We discuss the trade-off between increasing motion blur, which leads to decreased shock front location certainty, and increasing signal-to-noise, which leads to improved image quality with increasing integration time. We find an optimum integration time between a short integration time, where noise limits the error, and a long integration time, where motion blurring limits the error. This methodology can be used to tune experimental configurations to obtain the highest quality radiograph for a given experimental configuration.

Bremsstrahlung↗
DOE OSTI2025

Production of neutron-rich isotopes for 𝑍 ≥ 98 in the 238 U + 248 Cm reaction

Multinucleon transfer (MNT) reactions in actinide systems are a promising method to synthesize transuranium neutron-rich elements. Appropriate theoretical approaches are needed to understand the mechanisms behind MNT. We employ a microscopic approach to calculate neutron-rich isotope production in the reaction 238 U + 248 Cm system. Here, the stochastic mean-field (SMF) approach is used to calculate the primary cross sections in MNT reactions based on the quasifission and inverse quasifission processes, and a statistical de-excitation model with GEMINI ++ code to calculate the secondary fragment cross sections. The calculated cross sections using SMF and GEMINI ++ explain available experimental results for the 238 U + 248 Cm system at 𝐸 c.m. = 898.7 MeV energy. This shows the effectiveness and applicability of the quantal diffusion approach, based on the SMF theory, in heavy-ion collisions. Production of transuranium neutron-rich elements with a proton number up to 𝑍=101 is obtained with sizable cross sections. Theoretical results calculated for the 𝑍=102–105 region, for which there are no experimental data, show that the cross-section values would be lower than the microbarn level. SMF theory does not contain any adjustable parameters other than the standard parameters of the energy density functional used in the TDHF theory and is an important approach for the microscopic understanding of reaction mechanisms.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Comment on “Brownian motion of droplets induced by thermal noise”

We simulate phase separated fluids using the Cahn-Hillard fluctuating hydrodynamic (CH-FHD) model and measure the statistical properties of capillary waves generated by thermal fluctuations. Our measurements are in good agreement with stochastic lubrication theory and molecular dynamics simulations but differ significantly from recent CH-FHD results by Zhang et al. [Phys. Rev. E 109, 024208 (2024)2470-004510.1103/PhysRevE.109.024208]. Specifically, we find that capillary wave statistics at thermodynamic equilibrium are independent of transport properties, namely viscosity and species diffusion.

Bell, J B↗
DOE OSTI2024

Strong Zero Modes in Integrable Quantum Circuits

It is a classic result that certain interacting integrable spin chains host robust edge modes known as strong zero modes (SZMs). In this Letter, we extend this result to the Floquet setting of local quantum circuits, focusing on a prototypical model providing an integrable Trotterization for the evolution of the XXZ Heisenberg spin chain. By exploiting the algebraic structures of integrability, we show that an exact SZM operator can be constructed for these integrable quantum circuits in certain regions of parameter space. Our construction, which recovers a well-known result by Paul Fendley in the continuous-time limit, relies on a set of commuting transfer matrices known from integrability, and allows us to easily prove important properties of the SZM, including normalizabilty. Our approach is different from previous methods and could be of independent interest even in the Hamiltonian setting. Furthermore, our predictions, which are corroborated by numerical simulations of infinite-temperature autocorrelation functions, are potentially interesting for implementations of the XXZ quantum circuit on available quantum platforms.

1-dimensional spin chains↗
DOE OSTI2025

Statistical analysis of the fluctuations of an initial-state model with independently distributed hot spots

Abstract We determine the uncorrelated modes that characterize the fluctuations in a semi-realistic model for the initial state of high-energy nuclear collisions, consisting of hot spots whose positions are distributed independently. Varying the number of hot spots, their size, and the weights with which they contribute to the initial state, we find that the parameter that has the largest influence on the relative importance of the fluctuation modes is the source size, with more extended hot spots leading to a more marked predominance of the principal modes.

Borghini, Nicolas↗
DOE OSTI2025

TransPlatformer

We propose TransPlatformer for translating toxicogenomics from one platform to another. Transcriptomic profiling has evolved through multiple generations of technology, from microarrays (e.g., Affymetrix, CodeLink) to more recent high-throughput sequencing and targeted panels such as S1500+. Microarrays, which dominated gene expression studies in the early 2000s, provided affordable and high-throughput transcript quantification but suffered from cross-hybridization issues and limited dynamic range . RNA-Seq, introduced in the late 2000s, revolutionized transcriptomics by enabling unbiased and comprehensive gene expression analysis, albeit at higher costs and computational demands . Despite advances, many studies rely on historical microarray data, necessitating the translation of legacy data into modern platforms to ensure continuity and comparability. This translation is complicated by factors such as platform-specific probe design, differences in transcript coverage, and batch effects . Existing methods for cross-platform mapping include statistical normalization, machine learning models, and biological anchoring approaches. The ability to translate transcriptomic data between platforms has broad implications, including enhanced meta-analyses, improved toxicological modeling, and better integration of historical datasets with contemporary research. TransPlatformer seeks to contribute to this effort by evaluating translation methodologies and proposing novel strategies to improve cross-platform gene expression harmonization. In this repository there are code examples for TransPlatformer implementation

Cong, Guojing↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hyper Spectral Anomaly Detection

The HSA is a statistics based anomaly detection model. The model performs unsupervised anomaly detection, based on a datapoint's density and similarity within a dataset. Density and similarity data are encoded into an affinity matrix. The affinity matrix is evolved to summarize the data's structure on greater topographical scales within the data's function space. The set of evolved affinity matrices and an anomaly score vector are passed to a user defined penalized objective function. The penalized objective function of anomaly scores is then minimized. Data points where the absolute value of the z-scores of anomaly scores greater than a specified threshold are predicted as anomalies. A novel multi-filter feature has also been implemented. To reduce false positive rates, the multi-filter records the indexes of the HSA predictions. A new dataset and data loader are instantiated consisting of all the initial HSA predictions and non-anomalous data points in a 10% and 90% split respectively. The HSA is then run through this data set and a count of number of times a data point is predicted is kept. In this way the initial predictions may be compared with data spanning the entire dataset. After the multi-filter is complete, all datapoints will have an associated anomaly score, as well as a multi-filter prediction count to further filter the anomalous predictions.

Rogers, DempseyD [Idaho National Laboratory (INL),↗
DOE OSTI2025

DeepBench: A simulation package for physical benchmarking data

We introduce **DeepBench**, a python library that generates simple simulated image data from first principles, such as basic geometric shapes and astronomical objects. These data are highly valuable for developing (calibration, testing, and benchmarking) statistical and machine learning models because they make it possible to connect the final data product to physically interpretable inputs. This software includes tools to curate and store the datasets to maximize reproducibility.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Highly Resolved Reference Projections of Building Energy Use for the Contiguous United States: Building Sector Energy Baselines, Projection Methods, and Results

This report describes one methodology of projecting energy consumption of the US residential and commercial building sectors using NREL's ResStock™ and ComStock™ as well as growth rates derived from EIA's Annual Energy Outlook (AEO). The impetus for this work is to provide an intermediate method for compiling demand-side sectoral energy projections that is suitable for grid-scale analysis, such as NREL's Standard Scenarios. ResStock and ComStock are physics-based and statistically representative building stock models of the US residential and commercial sector, respectively. Using the 2012 actual meteorological year (AMY) weather data, the sectoral energy baselines are simulated and then segmented along key dimensions (e.g., geography, dwelling/building type). The segmented results are then scaled using the corresponding annual growth rates derived from the 2021 AEO reference case to produce energy projections out to 2050. The compiled result is a demand-side grid model (dsgrid) data set suitable for use in NREL's large-scale grid models, such as the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS). This simple projection method does not endogenously represent how the building stock could evolve through time. Most notably, it does not reflect large-scale electrification, for example, the conversion of space heating, water heating, clothes drying, and cooking from primary fossil fuels to electricity, as this is not part of AEO's reference case assumptions. Nonetheless this approach is more resolved and potentially extensible compared to the current method used by Standard Scenarios's reference case, which augments a sector's total load based on a single growth rate from AEO.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗