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At least 271 records · Page 15

Stochastic Models of Tropical Rain-Rate Fields

Because of the extreme variability of rain rate in space and time and the difficulties with remote sensing methods of measuring rain rates, accurate determination of rainfall over large areas and time periods has long been a problem for hydrologists, meteorogists, and climatologists. A number of statistical models of rain have been developed in order to investigate the impact of rain variability on satellite remote sensing methods, validation of satellite rain products, and generation of rain maps with accompanying error estimates. These models may be useful in examining 'sub-grid scale' issues in representing precipitation in numerical mdoels. A stochastic model will first be described which can generate time-dependent high-resolution spatial rain fields with space and time correlations similar to those seen in rain data, as well as representing the presence of areas with zero rain rate and log-normally distributed rain rates where there is rain. A simpler model derived from this, formulated in the spectral domain, seems to imply fractal-like rain statistics at small scales when fit to rain data.

Bell, Thomas L.↗

Molecular phylogenetic trees - On the validity of the Goodman-Moore augmentation algorithm

A response is made to the reply of Nei and Tateno (1979) to the letter of Holmquist (1978) supporting the validity of the augmentation algorithm of Moore (1977) in reconstructions of nucleotide substitutions by means of the maximum parsimony principle. It is argued that the overestimation of the augmented numbers of nucleotide substitutions (augmented distances) found by Tateno and Nei (1978) is due to an unrepresentative data sample and that it is only necessary that evolution be stochastically uniform in different regions of the phylogenetic network for the augmentation method to be useful. The importance of the average value of the true distance over all links is explained, and the relative variances of the true and augmented distances are calculated to be almost identical. The effects of topological changes in the phylogenetic tree on the augmented distance and the question of the correctness of ancestral sequences inferred by the method of parsimony are also clarified.

Holmquist, R.↗

Probabilistic Finite Element Development

The probabilistic finite element computer program known as Numerical Evaluation of Stochastic Structures Under Stress (NESSUS) is being developed for the analysis of critical structural components for reusable space propulsion systems. First year efforts involve the formulation of the probabilistic analysis strategy and the development of a probabilistic linear analysis code. The ultimate goal of the 3-year program is the development of a finite element code capable of performing nonlinear dynamic analysis of structures having stochastic material properties, geometry, and boundary conditions and subjected to random loading. Three levels of sophistication are envisioned for the stochastic description of the structural problem, namely: (1) homogeneous random variable for stiffness, mass, damping, and external loading; (2) stochastic characterization of variables at the element level, with specified interelement correlations; and (3) stochastic interpolation of variables within a finite element. Two alternative probabilistic analysis methods will be developed, allowing for all three levels of modeling sophistication.

Nagtegaal, J.↗

Proceedings of the 3rd Annual SCOLE Workshop

Topics addressed include: modeling and controlling the Spacecraft Control Laboratory Experiment (SCOLE) configurations; slewing maneuvers; mathematical models; vibration damping; gravitational effects; structural dynamics; finite element method; distributed parameter system; on-line pulse control; stability augmentation; and stochastic processes.

Taylor, Lawrence W., Jr.↗

Mixing, transport and combustion in sprays

The state-of-the-art in analytical methods for sprays and drop/turbulence interactions in combustion processes is presented with reference to dilute sprays, and dilute dispersed flows, that contain well-defined dispersed-phase elements in volume fractions lower than 1 percent. Attention is given to the near-injector dense spray region. The methods tested are those of locally homogeneous flow, deterministic separated flow, and stochastic separated flow; the first of these was ineffective due to its ignoring finite interphase transport rates, and the second failed by ignoring turbulent dispersion. Stochastic separated flow methodology yielded encouraging results through its treatment of both finite interphase transport rates and dispersed-phase/turbulence interactions.

Faeth, G. M.↗

Design Of Combined Stochastic Feedforward/Feedback Control

Methodology accommodates variety of control structures and design techniques. In methodology for combined stochastic feedforward/feedback control, main objectives of feedforward and feedback control laws seen clearly. Inclusion of error-integral feedback, dynamic compensation, rate-command control structure, and like integral element of methodology. Another advantage of methodology flexibility to develop variety of techniques for design of feedback control with arbitrary structures to obtain feedback controller: includes stochastic output feedback, multiconfiguration control, decentralized control, or frequency and classical control methods. Control modes of system include capture and tracking of localizer and glideslope, crab, decrab, and flare. By use of recommended incremental implementation, control laws simulated on digital computer and connected with nonlinear digital simulation of aircraft and its systems.

Halyo, Nesim↗

Stochastic stability and instability of model ecosystems

In this work, we initiate a stability study of multispecies communities in stochastic environment by using Ito's differential equations as community models. By applying the direct method of Liapunov, we obtain sufficient conditions for stability and instability in the mean of the equilibrium populations. The conditions are expressed in terms of the dominant diagonal property of community matrices, which is a suitable mechanism for resolving the central problem of 'complexity vs stability' in model ecosystems. As a by-product of this analysis we exhibit important structural properties of the stochastic density-dependent models, and establish tolerance of community stability to a broad class of nonlinear time-varying perturbations.

Ladde, G. S.↗

Expected Thrust Fraction: Resilient Trajectory Design Applied to the Earth Return Orbiter

Electric propulsion is an enabling technology for NASA’s Mars Sample Return mission that affords an order of magnitude reduction in fuel. Unfortunately, elec- tric propulsion’s low-thrust capabilities require long thrusting arcs that make space- craft susceptible to disturbances resulting in missed thrust events. One method for designing trajectories resilient to such missed thrust events is expected thrust frac- tion, which embeds their stochastic nature into a time-varying duty cycle. This paper investigates the application of expected thrust fraction to the Earth Return Orbiter’s outbound Earth-to-Mars trajectory and compares it with trajectories de- signed using traditional methods to mitigate missed thrust events. Through the use of expected thrust fraction, a trajectory with a baseline 65.4% success rate is im- proved to an 86.6% success rate at the cost of only a 12 kg reduction in delivered mass. Additionally, when expected thrust fraction is used in conjunction with a terminal coast, a 96.0% success rate is achieved, which is higher than any single mitigation technique.

Laipert, Frank↗

Comments on the present state and future directions of PDF methods

The one point probability density function (PDF) method is examined in light of its use in actual engineering problems. The PDF method, although relatively complicated, appears to be the only format available to handle the nonlinear stochastic difficulties caused by typical reaction kinetics. Turbulence modeling, if it is to play a central role in combustion modeling, has to be integrated with the chemistry in a way which produces accurate numerical solutions to combustion problems. It is questionable whether the development of turbulent models in isolation from the peculiar statistics of reactant concentrations is a fruitful line of development as far as propulsion is concerned. There are three issues for which additional viewgraphs are prepared: the one point pdf method; the amplitude mapping closure; and a hybrid strategy for replacing a full two point pdf treatment of reacting flows by a single point pdf and correlation functions. An appeal is made for the establishment of an adequate data base for compressible flow with reactions for Mach numbers of unity or higher.

Obrien, E. E.↗

Methods of sequential estimation for determining initial data in numerical weather prediction

Numerical weather prediction (NWP) is an initial-value problem for a system of nonlinear differential equations, in which initial values are known incompletely and inaccurately. Observational data available at the initial time must therefore be supplemented by data available prior to the initial time, a problem known as meteorological data assimilation. A further complication in NWP is that solutions of the governing equations evolve on two different time scales, a fast one and a slow one, whereas fast scale motions in the atmosphere are not reliably observed. This leads to the so called initialization problem: initial values must be constrained to result in a slowly evolving forecast. The theory of estimation of stochastic dynamic systems provides a natural approach to such problems. For linear stochastic dynamic models, the Kalman-Bucy (KB) sequential filter is the optimal data assimilation method, for linear models, the optimal combined data assimilation-initialization method is a modified version of the KB filter.

Cohn, S. E.↗

Status of dual control theory

Theoretical studies of decision making and stochastic processes are discussed. Several approaches are described for an improved performing control method. It is shown that control performance is highly dependent on the knowledge of the unknown parameters in the system.

Tse, E.↗

Placing dynamic sensors and actuators on flexible space structures

Input/Output Cost Analysis involves decompositions of the quadratic cost function into contributions from each stochastic input and each weighted output. In the past, these suboptimal cost decomposition methods of sensor and actuator selection (SAS) have been used to locate perfect (infinite bandwidth) sensor and actuators on large scale systems. This paper extends these ideas to the more practical case of imperfect actuators and sensors with dynamics of their own. NASA's SCOLE examples demonstrate that sensor and actuator dynamics affect the optimal selection and placement of sensors and actuators.

Norris, Gregory A.↗

A stochastic precipitation disaggregation scheme for GCM applications

In the surface hydrologic parameterization of general circulation models (GCMs), it is commonly assumed that the precipitation processes are homogeneous over a GCM grid square and that the precipitation intensity is uniformly distributed. Based on evidence that the spatial distribution of precipitation within a GCM grid square is crucial for the land surface hydrology parameterization, a few researchers have explored the impacts of assuming that the precipitation is exponentially distributed. This paper explores the suitability of the aforementioned assumptions. First, a statistical analysis is conducted of historical precipitation data for three GCM grids in different regions of the United States. The analysis suggests that neither the uniform nor the exponential distribution assumption may be suitable at the GCM grid scale and, that instead, the spatial variability in precipitation is characterized by statistical patterns that are inhomogeneous. These patterns vary from grid to grid and are induced by the interaction between atmospheric conditions and various land surface characteristics, such as topographical features, surface properties, etc. Within the same grid square, however, the statistical patterns are generally constant from year to year. Based on this analysis, a computationally viable (i.e., usable with GCMs) stochastic precipitation disaggregation scheme that utilizes these stable statistical patterns is proposed. The method was used to generate spatially distributed hourly rainfall for a summer season in the southwestern region of the continental United States. Analysis of the results shows that the methodology preserves the seasonal characteristics of spatial variability in precipitation that is observed in the long-term historical data.

Gao, Xiaogang↗

Jet Mixing Enhancement by Feedback Control

The objective of this work has been to produce methodologies for high speed jet noise reduction based on natural mechanisms and enhanced feedback control to affect frequencies and structures in a prescribed manner. In this effort the two-point hot wire measurements obtained in the Langley jet facility by Ukeiley were used in conjuction with linear stochastic estimation (LSE) to implement the LSE component of the complementary technique. This method combines the Proper Orthogonal Decomposition (POD) and LSE to provide an experimental low dimensional time dependent description of the flow field. From such a description it should be possible to identify short time high strain rate events in the jet which contribute to the noise. The main task completed for this effort is summarized: LSE experiments were performed at the downstream locations where the two point hot wire measurements have been obtained by Ukeiley. These experiments involved sampling simultaneously hot wire signals from a relatively course spatial grid in gamma and theta. From this simultaneous data, coupled with the two-point measurements of Ukeiley via the LSE components of the complementary technique, an experimental low dimensional description of the jet at 4, 5, 6, 7 and 8 diameters downstream was obtained for Mach numbers of 0.3 and 0.6. We first present an overview of the theory involved. We finish up with a statement of the work performed and finally provide charts from a 1999 APS talk which summarizes the results.

Glauser, Mark↗

Aeroservoelastic Optimization under Stochastic Gust Constraints

This work considers the aeroservoelastic optimization of a highly flexible transport aircraft wingbox with several control surfaces distributed along the trailing edge. The steady deflections of the control surfaces are designed to alleviate static maneuver loads, while the unsteady deflections are designed to alleviate stochastic continuous gust disturbances. Spatially-detailed unsteady stochastic stress and panel buckling constraints are formulated via modal acceleration, and by methods to locate the most-probable failure point along an equal-probability hypersurface. For the case considered here, it is found that the inclusion of such gust constraints during optimization presents a sizable structural mass penalty. In some cases, this mass penalty can be completely recovered with controlled gust load alleviation.

Stanford, Bret K.↗

A kinetic-theory approach to turbulent chemically reacting flows

The paper examines the mathematical and physical foundations for the kinetic theory of reactive turbulent flows, discussing the differences and relation between the kinetic and averaged equations, and comparing some solutions of the kinetic equations obtained by the Green's function method with those obtained by the approximate bimodal method. The kinetic method described consists essentially in constructing the probability density functions of the chemical species on the basis of solutions of the Langevin stochastic equation for the influence of eddies on the behavior of fluid elements. When the kinetic equations are solved for the structure of the diffusion flame established in a shear layer by the bimodal method, discontinuities in gradients of the mean concentrations at the two flame edges appear. This is a consequence of the bimodal approximation of all distribution functions by two dissimilar half-Maxwellian functions, which is a very crude approximation. These discontinuities do not appear when the solutions are constructed by the Green's function method described here.

Chung, P. M.↗