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DOE OSTI2024

Hydrogen Leak Modeling for Development of Smart Distributed Monitoring Under Unintended Releases

Hydrogen is a versatile and clean energy carrier that can be produced from various renewable sources such as wind, solar, and hydropower. Hydrogen has the potential to play a crucial role in decarbonizing industrial processes that are currently reliant on fossil fuels and provide long-duration and/or seasonal energy storage to enable electricity decarbonization. Hydrogen can also be used as a fuel for fuel cell vehicles, providing a zero-emission alternative to traditional internal combustion engines. DOE launched the Hydrogen Energy Earthshot (Hydrogen Shot) in June 2021 to reduce the cost of clean hydrogen by 80% to $1 per 1 kilogram in 1 decade ("1 1 1"). While promising, Hydrogen is highly-flammable, and in the presence of oxygen, it can form explosive mixtures. . Therefore, understanding leak scenarios is essential to evaluate and mitigate the safety risks associated with potential hydrogen leaks. An increased understanding of leak behavior, and having tools to model leaks, can help assess how hydrogen would disperse in different environments, influencing emergency response plans and safety measures, and identify potential issues with materials and design systems that can withstand the challenges posed by hydrogen. Recently, researchers have attempted to study hydrogen leaks for development of risk management strategies. However, the focus has been on closed or semi-closed spaces like storage rooms, vehicles, garages, and fueling stations - all promising locations for future hydrogen infrastructure. In this presentation, the modeling environment extends the span of research further by modeling hydrogen leak in an outdoor, open space. We will present the key challenges with modeling hydrogen leaks in an uncontrollable environment, how they were handled, and how modeling results informed sensor selection and placement. A Hydrogen research facility at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) was used as a case study to model hydrogen leaks. In the future, Hydrogen wide area detection methodologies will be developed and tested at this site to monitor for unintended and operational hydrogen releases. The data generated from modeling will be used to develop a predictive model to detect hydrogen leak location based on concentration measured by sensors in this open space. Furthermore, the facility was also chosen because controlled hydrogen releases can be performed. A computational fluid dynamics (CFD) based modeling approach was taken to model hydrogen leak. The full-scale hydrogen facility was modeled with a large ambient domain. The electrolyzer at the facility can produce a controlled release rate of 27 kg-H2/hr. Site-specific atmospheric and weather condition data such as wind direction, wind speed at various altitudes, and temperature were used as inputs to the model. To capture the variability of weather conditions, a subset of the weather conditions experienced during daytime hours without precipitation over the course of three months was generated; using established data clustering techniques, a total of 100 condition sets were chosen. The results show statistical distributions and ranges of hydrogen concentrations at locations throughout the domain. These distributions are compared to experimental data from a constant mass flow, controlled hydrogen release at the facility. The stochastic wind conditions of the release make direct validation difficult, therefore, statistical comparison approaches were used. Wind conditions are found to significantly impact the release behavior, including direction and concentration. Sensor selection and placement is proposed for the facility and is now based on release behavior predicted for the facility given its weather patterns; this is much more informed than without the modeling results. The methodology and analysis procedure can be translated to other facilities using modified geometries and site-specific weather conditions. Hydrogen holds great promise as a renewable energy fuel, but ensuring safety in its production, storage, and use is paramount. Studying potential leak scenarios in an open space will help develop sensors to detect hydrogen on a large spectrum of concentration and eventually build a smart distributed monitoring system.

CFD↗

NASA NTRS1999

Drop Breakup in Fixed Bed Flows as Model Stochastic Flow Fields

We examine drop breakup in a class of stochastic flow fields as a model for the flow through fixed fiber beds and to elucidate the general mechanisms whereby drops breakup in disordered, Lagrangian unsteady flows. Our study consists of two parallel streams of investigation. First, large scale numerical simulations of drop breakup in a class of anisotropic Gaussian fields will be presented. These fields are generated spectrally and have been shown in a previous publication to be exact representations of the flow in a dilute disordered bed of fibers if close interactions between the fibers and the drops are dynamically unimportant. In these simulations the drop shape is represented by second and third order small deformation theories which have been shown to be excellent for the prediction of drop breakup in steady strong flows. We show via these simulations that the mechanisms of drop breakup in these flows are quite different than in steady flows. The predominant mechanism of breakup appears to be very short lived twist breakups. Moreover, the occurrence of breakup events is poorly predicted by either the strength of the local flow in which the drop finds itself at breakup, or the degree of deformation that the drop achieves prior to breakup. It is suggested that a correlation function of both is necessary to be predictive of breakup events. In the second part of our research experiments are presented where the drop deformation and breakup in PDMS/polyisobutylene emulsions is considered. We consider very dilute emulsions such that coalescence is unimportant. The flows considered are simple shear and the flow through fixed fiber beds. Turbidity, small angle light scattering, dichroism and microscopy are used to interrogate the drop deformation process in both flows. It is demonstrated that breakup at very low capillary numbers occurs in both flows but larger drop deformation occurs in the fixed bed flow. Moreover, it is witnessed that breakup in the bed occurs continuously during flow and apparently with uniform probability through the bed length. The drop deformations witnessed in our experiments are larger than those predicted by the numerical simulations, and future plans to investigate these differences are discussed.

Shaqfeh, Eric S. G.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Forecasting Solar Photovoltaic Power Production: A Comprehensive Review and Innovative Data-Driven Modeling Framework

The intermittent and stochastic nature of Renewable Energy Sources (RESs) necessitates accurate power production prediction for effective scheduling and grid management. This paper presents a comprehensive review conducted with reference to a pioneering, comprehensive, and data-driven framework proposed for solar Photovoltaic (PV) power generation prediction. The systematic and integrating framework comprises three main phases carried out by seven main comprehensive modules for addressing numerous practical difficulties of the prediction task: phase I handles the aspects related to data acquisition (module 1) and manipulation (module 2) in preparation for the development of the prediction scheme; phase II tackles the aspects associated with the development of the prediction model (module 3) and the assessment of its accuracy (module 4), including the quantification of the uncertainty (module 5); and phase III evolves towards enhancing the prediction accuracy by incorporating aspects of context change detection (module 6) and incremental learning when new data become available (module 7). This framework adeptly addresses all facets of solar PV power production prediction, bridging existing gaps and offering a comprehensive solution to inherent challenges. By seamlessly integrating these elements, our approach stands as a robust and versatile tool for enhancing the precision of solar PV power prediction in real-world applications.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

2023 FORCE Development Status Update

Technical and economic analysis of integrated energy systems (IES) using software models is a complex process requiring multiple commodity market decision analysis, optimal control, process modeling, and stochastic analysis. Many assumptions used in traditional energy analysis tools do not hold in future energy markets with significant storage and variable renewable energy sources (VRE), let alone with multiple commodity markets. Capturing these intricate elements for accurate techno-economic analysis of IES led to the development of the Framework for Optimization of ResourCes and Economics (FORCE) tool suite under the U.S. Department of Energy’s Integrated Energy Systems crosscutting technology program. With the aim of a full framework release in 2025, many improvements to the FORCE tool suite were developed in fiscal year 2023 (FY23). These improvements broadly fit into three focuses for development of FORCE: capability, accessibility, and reliability. Capability refers to the ability of FORCE to accurately model the technical and economic viability of various IES. Accessibility refers to ease-of-use for new and existing IES analysts to efficiently set up, analyze, and produce results using FORCE. Reliability refers to the consistency of the software, allowing consistency to analysis regardless of erstwhile changes to the software. In addition to many smaller changes, there are three major capability improvements in FORCE in FY23. In summary, FORCE developments in FY23 have moved us close to all the capability requirements for FORCE 1.0 to be delivered in FY25. Inclusion of Bayesian optimization, resilience metrics, and levelized cost analysis expand the capability, accessibility, and reliability of FORCE.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

NASA NTRS2016

Exhibition of Stochastic Resonance in Vestibular Perception

Astronauts experience sensorimotor changes during spaceflight, particularly during G-transitions. Post flight sensorimotor changes include spatial disorientation, along with postural and gait instability that may degrade operational capabilities of the astronauts and endanger the crew. A sensorimotor countermeasure that mitigates these effects would improve crewmember safety and decrease risk. The goal of this research is to investigate the potential use of stochastic vestibular stimulation (SVS) as a technology to improve sensorimotor function. We hypothesize that low levels of SVS will improve sensorimotor perception through the phenomenon of stochastic resonance (SR), when the response of a nonlinear system to a weak input signal is enhanced by the application of a particular nonzero level of noise. This study aims to advance the development of SVS as a potential countermeasure by 1) demonstrating the exhibition of stochastic resonance in vestibular perception, a vital component of sensorimotor function, 2) investigating the repeatability of SR exhibition, and 3) determining the relative contribution of the semicircular canals (SCC) and otolith (OTO) organs to vestibular perceptual SR. A constant current stimulator was used to deliver bilateral bipolar SVS via electrodes placed on each of the mastoid processes, as previously done. Vestibular perceptual motion recognition thresholds were measured using a 6-degree of freedom MOOG platform and a 150 trial 3-down/1-up staircase procedure. In the first test session, we measured vestibular perceptual thresholds in upright roll-tilt at 0.2 Hz (SCC+OTO) with SVS ranging from 0-700 μA. In a second test session a week later, we re-measured roll-tilt thresholds with 0, optimal (from test session 1), and 1500 μA SVS levels. A subset of these subjects, plus naive subjects, participated in two additional test sessions in which we measured thresholds in supine roll-rotation at 0.2 Hz (SCC) and upright y-translation at 1 Hz (OTO) with SVS up to 700 μA. A sinusoidal galvanic vestibular stimulation (GVS) perceptual threshold was also measured on each test day and used to normalize the SVS levels across subjects. In roll-tilt thresholds with SVS, the characteristic SR curve was qualitatively exhibited in 10 of 12 subjects, and the improvement in motion threshold was significant in 6 subjects, indicating that optimal SVS improved passive body motion perception in a way that is consistent with classical SR theory. A probabilistic comparison to numeric simulations further validated these experimental results. On the second test session, 4 out of the 10 SR exhibitors showed repeated improvement with SVS compared to the no SVS condition. Data collection is ongoing for the last two test sessions in which SCC and OTO only perceptual motion recognition thresholds are being measured with SVS. The final results of these test sessions will give insight into whether vestibular perceptual SR can occur when only one type of vestibular sensor is sensing motion or if it is more evident when sensory integration between the SCC and OTO is occurring during the motion. The overall purpose of this research is to further quantify the effects of SVS on various sensorimotor tasks and to gain a more fundamental understanding of how SVS causes SR in the vestibular system. In the context of human space flight, results from this research will help in understanding how SVS may be practically implemented in the future as a component of a comprehensive countermeasure plan for G-transition adaptation.

Galvan-Garza, R. C.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Insights into Methodologies and Stochastic Optimization of Thermal Energy Storage-Coupled Advanced Reactor Systems: A Comparison of Methods for Accessing Long-Term Sub-System Sizing Adequacy

This paper investigates the potential of coupling Thermal Energy Storage (TES) with Advanced Reactors (ARs) to address uncertainties posed by climate change in deep decarbonized power systems. The TES Use-case Team at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) has examined the potential of storing thermal energy from ARs during low demand periods and optimizing discharge during peak-priced hours, in both steady-state and transient conditions. Building on this groundwork, this study bridges the gaps in optimal sizing of the sub-system of TES-coupled AR systems using Risk Analysis Virtual Environment (RAVEN) and Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON), INL?s framework for grid optimization. By applying this framework, we present statistically-robust optimal charge, discharge including balance of plant (BOP), and storage sizing for the High-Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactor (HTGR) with 203 MWth output. To this end, we generated synthetic price samples for 30 years using 2018 ? 2021 real-time market data from ERCOT, PJM and MISO. Our results reveals that the TES-coupled HTGR system is highly effective in maximizing revenue from electricity sales. We observed a substantial increase of 40 % in ERCOT and a noteworthy 15 % increase in PJM and MISO when compared to the conventional BOP without TES. This improvement is achieved through regionally-tailored sub-system sizing, which ranges from 398 to 416 MWth for the discharge system and 610 to 1029 MWth for the TES. We find that the average electricity price directly impacts the overall economics, while price volatility influences storage size. Additional sensitivity analyses were performed to access the impact of key assumptions on system economics and sizing, differentiating the optimization window (i.e., 24 ? 219 hours of chronological observations) and by imposing storage continuity condition in tracking TES cycles. We observed that at the 120-hour of the optimization window, a reasonable balance between computation time and accuracy was achieved. Our analysis also highlights the significance of conducting multi-day cycle analysis (> 120-hour) for TES to capture interaction between electricity prices and storage dynamics, providing a comprehensive understanding of TES behavior that AR developers should integrate into their plant designs.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗