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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 271 records · Page 15
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2014

Full-wavefield inversion of surface waves for mapping embedded low-velocity zones in permafrost

Surface waves are advantageous for mapping seismic structures of permafrost, in which irregular velocity gradients are common and thus the effectiveness of refraction methods are limited. Nevertheless, the complex velocity structures that are common in permafrost environments often yield unusual dispersion spectra, in which higher-order and leaky modes are dominant. Such unusual dispersion spectra were prevalent in the multichannel surface-wave data acquired from our permafrost study site at Barrow, Alaska. Owing to the difficulties in picking and identifying dispersion curves from these dispersion spectra, conventional surface-wave inversion methods become problematic to apply. Here, to overcome these difficulties, we adopted a full-wavefield method to invert for velocity models that can best fit the dispersion spectra instead of the dispersion curves. The inferred velocity models were consistent with collocated electric resistivity results and with subsequent confirmation cores, which indicated the reliability of the recovered seismic structures. The results revealed embedded low-velocity zones underlying the ice-rich permafrost at our study site — an unexpected feature considering the low ground temperatures of - 10 ° C to - 8 ° C . The low velocities in these zones ( ~ 70 % – 80 % lower than the overlying ice-rich permafrost) were most likely caused by saline pore-waters that prevent the ground from freezing, and the resultant velocity structures are vivid examples of complex subsurface properties in permafrost terrain. Finally, we determined that full-wavefield inversion of surface waves, although carrying higher computational costs than conventional methods, can be an effective tool for delineating the seismic structures of permafrost.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Experimental and molecular dynamics simulation study of structure of liquid and amorphous Ni 62 Nb 38 alloy

The state-of-the-art experimental and atomistic simulation techniques were utilized to study the structure of the liquid and amorphous Ni 62 Nb 38 alloy. First, the ab initio molecular dynamics (AIMD) simulation was performed at rather high temperature where the time limitations of the AIMD do not prevent to reach the equilibrium liquid structure. A semi-empirical potential of the Finnis-Sinclair (FS) type was developed to almost exactly reproduce the AIMD partial pair correlation functions (PPCFs) in a classical molecular dynamics simulation. This simulation also showed that the FS potential well reproduces the bond angle distributions. The FS potential was then employed to elongate the AIMD PPCFs and determine the total structure factor (TSF) which was found to be in excellent agreement with X-ray TSF obtained within the present study demonstrating the reliability of the AIMD for the simulation of the structure of the liquid Ni–Nb alloys as well as the reliability of the developed FS potential. The glass structure obtained with the developed potential was also found to be in excellent agreement with the X-ray data. We report the analysis of the structure revealed that a network of the icosahedra clusters centered on Ni atoms is forming during cooling the liquid alloy down to T g and the Nb Z14, Z15, and Z16 clusters are attached to this network. This network is the main feature of the Ni 62 Nb 38 alloy and further investigations of the properties of this alloy should be based on study of the behavior of this network.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2012

Reactor Design and Decommissioning - An Overview of International Activities in Post Fukushima Era1 - 12396

Accidents at the Fukushima Dai-ichi reactors as a result of the devastating earthquake and tsunami of March 11, 2011 have not only dampened the nuclear renaissance but have also initiated a re-examination of the design and safety features for the existing and planned nuclear reactors. Even though failures of some of the key site features at Fukushima can be attributed to events that in the past would have been considered as beyond the design basis, the industry as well as the regulatory authorities are analyzing what features, especially passive features, should be designed into the new reactor designs to minimize the potential for catastrophic failures. It is also recognized that since the design of the Fukushima BWR reactors which were commissioned in 1971, many advanced safety features are now a part of the newer reactor designs. As the recovery efforts at the Fukushima site are still underway, decisions with respect to the dismantlement and decommissioning of the damaged reactors and structures have not yet been finalized. As it was with Three Mile Island, it could take several decades for dismantlement, decommissioning and clean up, and the project poses especially tough challenges. Near-term assessments have been issued by several organizations, including the IAEA, the USNRC and others. Results of such investigations will lead to additional improvements in system and site design measures including strengthening of the anti-tsunami defenses, more defense-in-depth features in reactor design, and better response planning and preparation involving reactor sites. The question also arises what would the effect be on the decommissioning scene worldwide, and what would the effect be on the new reactors when they are eventually retired and dismantled. This paper provides an overview of the US and international activities related to recovery and decommissioning including the decommissioning features in the reactor design process and examines these from a new perspective in the post Fukushima -accident era. Accidents at the Fukushima Daiichi reactors in the aftermath of the devastating earthquake and tsunami of March 11, 2011 have slowed down the nuclear renaissance world-wide and may have accelerated decommissioning either because some countries have decided to halt or reduce nuclear, or because the new safety requirements may reduce life-time extensions. Even in countries such as the UK and France that favor nuclear energy production existing nuclear sites are more likely to be chosen as sites for future NPPs. Even as the site recovery efforts continue at Fukushima and any decommissioning decisions are farther into the future, the accidents have focused attention on the reactor designs in general and specifically on the Fukushima type BWRs. The regulatory authorities in many countries have initiated a re-examination of the design of the systems, structures and components and considerations of the capability of the station to cope with beyond-design basis events. Enhancements to SSCs and site features for the existing reactors and the reactors that will be built will also impact the decommissioning phase activities. The newer reactor designs of today not only have enhanced safety features but also take into consideration the features that will facilitate future decommissioning. Lessons learned from past management and operation of reactors as well as the lessons from decommissioning are incorporated into the new designs. However, in the post-Fukushima era, the emphasis on beyond-design-basis capability may lead to significant changes in SSCs, which eventually will also have impact on the decommissioning phase. Additionally, where some countries decide to phase out the nuclear power, many reactors may enter the decommissioning phase in the coming decade. While the formal updating and expanding of existing guidance documents for accident cleanup and decommissioning would benefit by waiting until the Fukushima project has progressed sufficiently for that experience to be reliably interpreted, the development of structured on-line sharing of information and especially the creation of an on-line compendium of methods, tools, and techniques by which damaged fuel and other unique situations have been addressed can be addressed sooner and maintained as new problems and solutions arise and are resolved. The IAEA's new 'WEB 2.0 tool' CONNECT is expected to play a significant role in this and related information-sharing activities. The trend in some countries such as the United States has been to re-license the existing reactors for additional twenty years, beyond the original design life. Given the advances in technology over the past four decades, and considering that the newer designs incorporate significant improvements in safety systems, it may not be economical or technically feasible to retrofit enhancements into some of the older reactors. In such cases, the reactors may be retired from service and decommissioned. Overall, the energy demand in the world continues to rise, with sharp increases in the Asian countries, and nuclear power's role in the world's energy supply is expected to continue. Events at Fukushima have led to a re-examination on many fronts, including reactor design and regulatory requirements. Further changes may occur in these areas in the post-Fukushima era. These changes in turn will also impact the world-wide decommissioning scene and the decommissioning phase of the future reactors. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2014

Interactive lung segmentation in abnormal human and animal chest CT scans

Purpose: Many medical image analysis systems require segmentation of the structures of interest as a first step. For scans with gross pathology, automatic segmentation methods may fail. The authors’ aim is to develop a versatile, fast, and reliable interactive system to segment anatomical structures. In this study, this system was used for segmenting lungs in challenging thoracic computed tomography (CT) scans. Methods: In volumetric thoracic CT scans, the chest is segmented and divided into 3D volumes of interest (VOIs), containing voxels with similar densities. These VOIs are automatically labeled as either lung tissue or nonlung tissue. The automatic labeling results can be corrected using an interactive or a supervised interactive approach. When using the supervised interactive system, the user is shown the classification results per slice, whereupon he/she can adjust incorrect labels. The system is retrained continuously, taking the corrections and approvals of the user into account. In this way, the system learns to make a better distinction between lung tissue and nonlung tissue. When using the interactive framework without supervised learning, the user corrects all incorrectly labeled VOIs manually. Both interactive segmentation tools were tested on 32 volumetric CT scans of pigs, mice and humans, containing pulmonary abnormalities. Results: On average, supervised interactive lung segmentation took under 9 min of user interaction. Algorithm computing time was 2 min on average, but can easily be reduced. On average, 2.0% of all VOIs in a scan had to be relabeled. Lung segmentation using the interactive segmentation method took on average 13 min and involved relabeling 3.0% of all VOIs on average. The resulting segmentations correspond well to manual delineations of eight axial slices per scan, with an average Dice similarity coefficient of 0.933. Conclusions: The authors have developed two fast and reliable methods for interactive lung segmentation in challenging chest CT images. Both systems do not require prior knowledge of the scans under consideration and work on a variety of scans.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2013

Synthesis and structure of high-quality films of copper polyphthalocyanine – 2D conductive polymer

Graphical abstract: - Highlights: • 2D polymers show a big promise for science and technology. • We develop a new procedure for the direct synthesis of copper polyphthalocyanine. • We obtain reliable experimental data on the CuPPC structure. • With the support of quantum chemical calculations we describe electronic structure of CuPPC. - Abstract: Copper polyphthalocyanine (CuPPC), a 2D conjugated polymer, is a promising material for electronics and photovoltaics, but its applications were hindered by a poor processability. We propose an experimental approach, by which thin films of CuPPC, can be directly synthesized in a chemical vapor deposition (CVD) set-up at mild temperature (420 °C). High polymerization degree and high crystallinity of the films were confirmed by TEM, FTIR and UV–vis studies. From XRD and TEM electron diffraction, we conclude that the polymer has AA layer stacking with the inter-layer distance of 0.32 nm. The assignment of X-ray and TEM diffraction patterns was based on quantum-chemical calculations. Based on the latter, we also discuss electronic structure and conclude that CuPPC is rather a semi-metal than semi-conductor.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Metastable solubility and local structure of amorphous calcium carbonate (ACC)

The properties of amorphous calcium carbonate provide the foundation for understanding mineralization of calcified skeletons but inconsistencies between studies suggest the physical picture is incomplete. This study quantifies the metastable solubility and structure of ACC produced under a series of chemical conditions. Using complementary in situ methods that quantify ACC structure (in situ PDF analysis) in parallel with chemical composition (TGA, ICP-OES), we find two short-range structures are produced that also show distinct morphological differences. Conditions with high carbonate ion concentrations stabilize a Ca-rich ACC with short-range order that is independent of Mg content. In contrast, low carbonate solutions favor Mg-rich ACC with mixed Ca- and Mg-short range order. Measurements of solubility product determined from supersaturated and undersaturated conditions find the distinctive structures are related to solution carbonate activity while solubility is primarily determined by the magnesium content of the solid. Bulk solubility is a composite that concurs with established values. The findings demonstrate the type of ACC that forms is tuned by Mg2+ and CO3-2- concentration and suggest ACC structure, not bulk composition, is a reliable indicator of intermediate phase. This chemical framework also provides a basis for interpreting apparent differences between observations of ACC in synthetic and natural systems that reconciles previous structural studies.

Mergelsberg, Sebastian T.↗
DOE OSTI2012

Human Reliability Program Overview

This presentation covers the high points of the Human Reliability Program, including certification/decertification, critical positions, due process, organizational structure, program components, personnel security, an overview of the US DOE reliability program, retirees and academia, and security program integration.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2018

Predicting kinetics of polymorphic transformations from structure mapping and coordination analysis

To extend materials design and discovery into the space of metastable polymorphs, rapid and reliable assessment of transformation kinetics to lower energy structures is essential. Herein we focus on diffusionless polymorphic transformations and investigate routes to assess their kinetics using solely crystallographic arguments. As part of this investigation we developed a general algorithm to map crystal structures onto each other, and ascertain the low-energy (fast-kinetics) transformation pathways between them. Pathways with minimal dissociation of chemical bonds, along which the number of bonds (in ionic systems the first-shell coordination) does not decrease below that in the end structures, are shown to always be the fast-kinetics pathways. These findings enable the rapid assessment of the kinetics of polymorphic transformation and the identification of long-lived metastable structures. In conclusion, the utility is demonstrated on a number of transformations including those between high-pressure SnO 2 phases, which lack a detailed atomic-level understanding.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2017

Radiation Tolerant Interfaces: Influence of Local Stoichiometry at the Misfit Dislocation on Radiation Damage Resistance of Metal/Oxide Interfaces

To understand how variations in interface properties such as misfit-dislocation density and local chemistry affect radiation-induced defect absorption and recombination, we have explored a model system of CrxV1-x alloy epitaxial films deposited on MgO single crystals. By controlling film composition, the lattice mismatch with MgO was adjusted so that the misfit-dislocation density varies at the interface. These interfaces were exposed to irradiation and in situ results show that the film with a semi-coherent interface (Cr) withstands irradiation while V film, which has similar semi-coherent interface like Cr, showed the largest damage. Theoretical calculations indicate that, unlike at metal/metal interfaces, the misfit dislocation density does not dominate radiation damage tolerance at metal/oxide interfaces. Rather, the stoichiometry, and the precise location of the misfit-dislocation density relative to the interface, drives defect behavior. Together, these results demonstrate the sensitivity of defect recombination to interfacial chemistry and provide new avenues for engineering radiation-tolerant nanomaterials.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Development of Predictive Model for Accurate Rupture Time from Multi-Axial Creep in Alloy 709 with Physics-Based Simulations

A physics-based model is developed to predict multiaxial creep behavior in Alloy 709 (A709), an advanced austenitic stainless steel intended for high-temperature applications such as Sodium Fast Reactors (SFRs). Compared to conventional stainless steels like 316H, A709 offers superior high-temperature performance; however, comprehensive data on its multiaxial creep response remain limited. To address this gap, a crystal plasticity finite element (CPFE) framework is used to simulate the deformation and failure mechanisms of A709 under multiaxial loading conditions. The model incorporates an extended Hu-Cocks dislocation creep formulation that accounts for precipitation effects, along with the Sham–Needleman model to capture grain boundary cavitation-driven failure. These advanced constitutive models enable a detailed understanding of the interplay between microstructural evolution and macroscopic creep response. Furthermore, the study evaluates the predictive accuracy of various effective stress measures in estimating creep rupture life, leveraging simulated multiaxial creep data. The findings provide critical insights into the applicability of different stress measures for engineering design and life prediction of A709 components operating under complex loading conditions. This work contributes to improving the reliability of high-temperature structural components by advancing predictive modeling capabilities for advanced austenitic steels.

Alloy 709↗
DOE OSTI2017

Probing Gap Plasmons Down to Subnanometer Scales Using Collapsible Nanofingers

Gap plasmonic nanostructures are of great interest due to their ability to concentrate light into small volumes. Theoretical studies, considering quantum mechanical effects, have predicted the optimal spatial gap between adjacent nanoparticles to be in the subnanometer regime in order to achieve the strongest possible field enhancement. In this paper, we present a technology to fabricate gap plasmonic structures with subnanometer resolution, high reliability, and high throughput using collapsible nanofingers. This approach enables us to systematically investigate the effects of gap size and tunneling barrier height. Finally, the experimental results are consistent with previous findings as well as with a straightforward theoretical model that is presented here.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2023

Spin-crossover complexes: Self-interaction correction vs density correction

Complexes containing a transition metal atom with a 3d 4 –3d 7 electron configuration typically have two low-lying, high-spin (HS) and low-spin (LS) states. The adiabatic energy difference between these states, known as the spin-crossover energy, is small enough to pose a challenge even for electronic structure methods that are well known for their accuracy and reliability. In this work, we analyze the quality of electronic structure approximations for spin-crossover energies of iron complexes with four different ligands by comparing energies from self-consistent and post-self-consistent calculations for methods based on the random phase approximation and the Fermi–Löwdin self-interaction correction. Considering that Hartree–Fock densities were found by Song et al., J. Chem. Theory Comput. 14, 2304 (2018), to eliminate the density error to a large extent, and that the Hartree–Fock method and the Perdew–Zunger-type self-interaction correction share some physics, we compare the densities obtained with these methods to learn their resemblance. Here, we find that evaluating non-empirical exchange-correlation energy functionals on the corresponding self-interaction-corrected densities can mitigate the strong density errors and improves the accuracy of the adiabatic energy differences between HS and LS states.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2018

A remarkable case of basis set dependence: the false convergence patterns of the methyl anion

Here, the gas phase methyl anion, CH 3 ¯, has been difficult to study experimentally, and the extreme basis set dependence of its molecular properties has presented a comparable challenge to theoreticians. Reliable predictions for the electronic structure of CH 3 ¯ require the use of basis sets capable of describing both the diffuse and valence characteristics of the system. The present study examines the basis set dependence of the equilibrium geometry and harmonic vibrational frequencies of CH 3 ¯. Both Hartree–Fock and CCSD(T) levels of theories are used with cc-pVXZ (, T, Q, 5, 6) basis sets with up to triple augmentation to describe the diffuse nature of the electron distribution. We find that non-augmented basis sets systematically yield vibrational frequencies that are too high for the umbrella mode and too low for the C–H symmetric and antisymmetric stretch even when extrapolated to the complete basis set limit, displaying false convergence patterns. The inclusion of one set of augmented functions significantly improves the convergence of these properties, but again yields false convergence patterns. Only with the doubly augmented basis set do we approach the basis set limit for the CH 3 ¯ vibrational frequencies.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2022

The 2022 magneto-optics roadmap

Abstract Magneto-optical (MO) effects, viz. magnetically induced changes in light intensity or polarization upon reflection from or transmission through a magnetic sample, were discovered over a century and a half ago. Initially they played a crucially relevant role in unveiling the fundamentals of electromagnetism and quantum mechanics. A more broad-based relevance and wide-spread use of MO methods, however, remained quite limited until the 1960s due to a lack of suitable, reliable and easy-to-operate light sources. The advent of Laser technology and the availability of other novel light sources led to an enormous expansion of MO measurement techniques and applications that continues to this day (see section 1). The here-assembled roadmap article is intended to provide a meaningful survey over many of the most relevant recent developments, advances, and emerging research directions in a rather condensed form, so that readers can easily access a significant overview about this very dynamic research field. While light source technology and other experimental developments were crucial in the establishment of today’s magneto-optics, progress also relies on an ever-increasing theoretical understanding of MO effects from a quantum mechanical perspective (see section 2), as well as using electromagnetic theory and modelling approaches (see section 3) to enable quantitatively reliable predictions for ever more complex materials, metamaterials, and device geometries. The latest advances in established MO methodologies and especially the utilization of the MO Kerr effect (MOKE) are presented in sections 4 (MOKE spectroscopy), 5 (higher order MOKE effects), 6 (MOKE microscopy), 8 (high sensitivity MOKE), 9 (generalized MO ellipsometry), and 20 (Cotton–Mouton effect in two-dimensional materials). In addition, MO effects are now being investigated and utilized in spectral ranges, to which they originally seemed completely foreign, as those of synchrotron radiation x-rays (see section 14 on three-dimensional magnetic characterization and section 16 on light beams carrying orbital angular momentum) and, very recently, the terahertz (THz) regime (see section 18 on THz MOKE and section 19 on THz ellipsometry for electron paramagnetic resonance detection). Magneto-optics also demonstrates its strength in a unique way when combined with femtosecond laser pulses (see section 10 on ultrafast MOKE and section 15 on magneto-optics using x-ray free electron lasers), facilitating the very active field of time-resolved MO spectroscopy that enables investigations of phenomena like spin relaxation of non-equilibrium photoexcited carriers, transient modifications of ferromagnetic order, and photo-induced dynamic phase transitions, to name a few. Recent progress in nanoscience and nanotechnology, which is intimately linked to the achieved impressive ability to reliably fabricate materials and functional structures at the nanoscale, now enables the exploitation of strongly enhanced MO effects induced by light–matter interaction at the nanoscale (see section 12 on magnetoplasmonics and section 13 on MO metasurfaces). MO effects are also at the very heart of powerful magnetic characterization techniques like Brillouin light scattering and time-resolved pump-probe measurements for the study of spin waves (see section 7), their interactions with acoustic waves (see section 11), and ultra-sensitive magnetic field sensing applications based on nitrogen-vacancy centres in diamond (see section 17). Despite our best attempt to represent the field of magneto-optics accurately and do justice to all its novel developments and its diversity, the research area is so extensive and active that there remains great latitude in deciding what to include in an article of this sort, which in turn means that some areas might not be adequately represented here. However, we feel that the 20 sections that form this 2022 magneto-optics roadmap article, each written by experts in the field and addressing a specific subject on only two pages, provide an accurate snapshot of where this research field stands today. Correspondingly, it should act as a valuable reference point and guideline for emerging research directions in modern magneto-optics, as well as illustrate the directions this research field might take in the foreseeable future.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2024

rf chopper for prebunched radioactive ion beams

An rf chopper system is being designed for the ReAccelerator (ReA) linac at the Facility for Rare Isotope Beams at Michigan State University. The 80.5 MHz ReA radio-frequency quadrupole accelerates prebunched 16.1 MHz beams, producing four satellite bunches for every main bunch. The chopper system includes an rf deflector that kicks every bunch vertically to spatially separate main and satellite bunches. A constant magnetic field superimposed with the chopper electric field biases the beam trajectory to ensure the high-intensity bunches do not experience a net deflection and are injected straight to the ReA6 cryomodule or sent for experiments. The kicked bunches are low in intensity and will be sent to a beam dump, resulting in a clean 16.1 MHz beam structure, which allows for a reliable time-of-flight separation of the isotopes. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Physics↗
DOE OSTI2021

Quenching of single-particle strengths in direct reactions

A discrepancy in the asymmetry dependence of spectroscopic factors extracted with different reaction probes calls into question whether the corresponding reaction models are properly understood. In this work, we present extracted spectroscopic factors from the Ar 46 , 34 ( p , d ) Ar 45 , 33 transfer reactions in inverse kinematics at a beam energy of 70 MeV/nucleon. The results are consistent with previous measurements of these reactions at a lower beam energy [Lee et al. , Phys. Rev. Lett. 104 , 112701 (2010) ], indicating that the transfer reaction is a reliable probe for the nuclear structure of exotic nuclei across a wide energy range. Results from a large body of transfer reaction measurements, ( p , p N ) measurements, and theoretical nuclear structure studies make a compelling case for much weaker asymmetry dependence than what is observed with single-nucleon knockout reactions on beryllium or carbon targets.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2019

Single-Submodule Open-Circuit Fault Diagnosis for a Modular Multi-level Converter Using Artificial Intelligent-based Techniques

Modular multi-level converters (MMCs) are one of the promising topologies in recent years for medium or high voltage applications. They are considered as the next generation DC/AC converters for medium/high voltage (MV/HV) motor drive applications due to their transform-less structures, high efficiency and modularity. Reliability is one of the most important challenges in MMCs, since a large number of power switching devices are used and each of these devices can be considered as a potential failure point. It is significant to detect and locate the fault accurately and apply appropriate protections in a timely manner. This paper investigates the behavior of the failure submodules and healthy submodules and use artificial neural network (ANN) classification algorithms for singlesubmodule open-circuit fault diagnosis. The ANN algorithm is implemented in field programmable gate array (FPGA) and the ANN parameters training is completed offline in Matlab. Experimental results of the proposed fault diagnosis for a singlemodule open-circuit fault are presented in this paper.

artificial intelligent↗
DOE OSTI2021

Detection of significant antiviral drug effects on COVID-19 with reasonable sample sizes in randomized controlled trials: A modeling study

Development of an effective antiviral drug for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a global health priority. Although several candidate drugs have been identified through in vitro and in vivo models, consistent and compelling evidence from clinical studies is limited. The lack of evidence from clinical trials may stem in part from the imperfect design of the trials. We investigated how clinical trials for antivirals need to be designed, especially focusing on the sample size in randomized controlled trials. A modeling study was conducted to help understand the reasons behind inconsistent clinical trial findings and to design better clinical trials. We first analyzed longitudinal viral load data for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) without antiviral treatment by use of a within-host virus dynamics model. The fitted viral load was categorized into 3 different groups by a clustering approach. Comparison of the estimated parameters showed that the 3 distinct groups were characterized by different virus decay rates (p-value < 0.001). The mean decay rates were 1.17 d -1 (95% CI: 1.06 to 1.27 d -1 ), 0.777 d -1 (0.716 to 0.838 d -1 ), and 0.450 d -1 (0.378 to 0.522 d -1 ) for the 3 groups, respectively. Such heterogeneity in virus dynamics could be a confounding variable if it is associated with treatment allocation in compassionate use programs (i.e., observational studies). Subsequently, we mimicked randomized controlled trials of antivirals by simulation. An antiviral effect causing a 95% to 99% reduction in viral replication was added to the model. To be realistic, we assumed that randomization and treatment are initiated with some time lag after symptom onset. Using the duration of virus shedding as an outcome, the sample size to detect a statistically significant mean difference between the treatment and placebo groups (1:1 allocation) was 13,603 and 11,670 (when the antiviral effect was 95% and 99%, respectively) per group if all patients are enrolled regardless of timing of randomization. The sample size was reduced to 584 and 458 (when the antiviral effect was 95% and 99%, respectively) if only patients who are treated within 1 day of symptom onset are enrolled. We confirmed the sample size was similarly reduced when using cumulative viral load in log scale as an outcome. We used a conventional virus dynamics model, which may not fully reflect the detailed mechanisms of viral dynamics of SARS-CoV-2. The model needs to be calibrated in terms of both parameter settings and model structure, which would yield more reliable sample size calculation. In this study, we found that estimated association in observational studies can be biased due to large heterogeneity in viral dynamics among infected individuals, and statistically significant effect in randomized controlled trials may be difficult to be detected due to small sample size. The sample size can be dramatically reduced by recruiting patients immediately after developing symptoms. We believe this is the first study investigated the study design of clinical trials for antiviral treatment using the viral dynamics model.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗