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At least 271 records · Page 15

Machine learning-enhanced model-based scenario optimization for DIII-D

Abstract Scenario development in tokamaks is an open area of investigation that can be approached in a variety of different ways. Experimental trial and error has been the traditional method, but this required a massive amount of experimental time and resources. As high fidelity predictive models have become available, offline development and testing of proposed scenarios has become an option to reduce the required experimental resources. The use of predictive models also offers the possibility of using a numerical optimization process to find the controllable inputs that most closely achieve the desired plasma state. However, this type of optimization can require as many as hundreds or thousands of predictive simulation cases to converge to a solution; many of the commonly used high fidelity models have high computational burdens, so it is only reasonable to run a handful of predictive simulations. In order to make use of numerical optimization approaches, a compromise needs to be found between model fidelity and computational burden. This compromise can be achieved using neural networks surrogates of high fidelity models that retain nearly the same level of accuracy as the models they are trained to replicate while reducing the computation time by orders of magnitude. In this work, a model-based numerical optimization tool for scenario development is described. The predictive model used by the optimizer includes neural network surrogate models integrated into the fast Control-Oriented Transport simulation framework. This optimization scheme is able to converge to the optimal values of the controllable inputs that produce the target plasma scenario by running thousands of predictive simulations in under an hour without sacrificing too much prediction accuracy.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Evaluating large scale aqueous organic redox flow battery performance with a hybrid numerical and machine learning framework

Aqueous organic redox flow battery (AORFB) is a promising cost-competitive technology for large-scale energy storage. Among existing work, the dihydroxyphenazine (DHP)-based AORFB has demonstrated high energy density and low-capacity degradation in 10 cm$^2$ cells during lab tests. However, its commercial-scale performance in more complex environments remains unknown, posing a barrier to commercialization. To address this gap, this work presents a comprehensive performance evaluation of a 780 cm$^2$ DHP-based AORFB by combining a physics-based numerical model, machine learning (ML)-based surrogate models, and ML-derived sensitivity quantification. Specifically, we first select 12 key battery parameters that include 10 physicochemical and 2 operation quantities, then select 6 performance metrics that include energy efficiency (EE), discharging capacity, charging energy, and power losses due to concentration, activation, and ohmic over-potentials. With such selection, 12800 combinations of the 12 parameters are subsequently generated using the Latin Hypercube Sampling method. Such combinations, together with 38 pre-defined State of Charge, are then integrated to a validated AORFB model developed in COMSOL to compute the performance metrics. With both input parameters and performance metrics, 60 deep neural network (DNN) surrogate models are then trained to approximate the relationship between the 10 physicochemical quantities and 6 performance metrics at each flow rate and current density. Sensitivity scores are then calculated based on the DNN models. Two additional sensitivity analysis tools, i.e., MARS, and SHAP, are also used to cross-validate the sensitivity scores from the DNN. The results demonstrate that 1) the standard potential ranks first in controlling EE and charging energy, 2) the membrane conductivity is most critical for power loss and EE, and 3) specific area and reaction rate control activation power loss.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

A hybrid numerical and machine learning framework for evaluating the performance of a 780 cm 2 aqueous organic redox flow battery

Aqueous organic redox flow battery (AORFB) is a promising cost-competitive technology for large-scale energy storage. Among existing work, the dihydroxyphenazine (DHP)-based AORFB has demonstrated high energy density and low capacity degradation in 10 cm2 cells during lab tests. However, its commercial-scale performance in more complex environments remains unknown, posing a barrier for commercialization. To address this gap, this work presents a comprehensive performance evaluation of a 780 cm 2 DHP-based AORFB by combining physics-based numerical model, machine learning (ML)-based surrogate models, and ML-derived sensitivity quantification. Specifically, we first select 12 key battery parameters that include 10 physicochemical quantities and 2 operation quantities, then select 6 performance metrics that include energy efficiency (EE), discharging capacity, charging energy, and power losses due to concentration, activation, and ohmic over-potentials. With such selection, 12800 combinations of the 12 parameters are subsequently generated using the Latin Hypercube Sampling method. These combinations, together with 38 pre-defined State of Charge, are then integrated to a validated AORFB model developed in COMSOL to compute the performance metrics. With both input parameters and performance metrics, 60 deep neural network (DNN) surrogate models are then trained to approximate the relationship between the 10 physicochemical quantities and 6 performance metrics at each flow rate and current density. Sensitivity scores are then calculated based on the DNN models. Two additional sensitivity analysis tools, i.e., MARS, and SHAP, are also used to cross-validate the sensitivity scores from the DNN. The results demonstrate that 1) the standard potential ranks the first in controlling EE and charging energy, 2) the membrane conductivity is most critical for power loss and EE, and 3) specific area and reaction rate control activation power loss.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Towards Robust Calibration of the AWSD Reactive Burn Model

Calibration of a reactive burn model for detonation of high explosive is an important step towards predictive hy drodynamic simulations of detonation. A typical calibration consists of varying model parameters (e.g., rate constants, activation energies) until results of hydrodynamic simulations match the experimental data for a certain set of ex periments. Hydrodynamic simulations of the dependence of steady detonation velocity on the radius of a cylindrical high-explosive charge - often used in such calibrations - can be computationally expensive. In this work, we propose a method where such expensive simulations are performed infrequently, and only to parameterize and refine a surrogate model for the dependence of the detonation velocity on calibrated parameters. The method is developed, implemented and applied to an example problem - calibration of the AWSD reactive burn model for important high explosive PBX 9502. Two different flavors of the surrogate model are investigated, and the calibration is performed successfully.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Incorporation of market signals for the optimal design of post combustion carbon capture systems

Recent studies have shown that fossil generators equipped with post-combustion carbon capture (PCC) systems are needed to reduce the cost of deep decarbonization. Such generators need to be flexible and responsive to grid conditions, particularly in a high variable renewable energy (VRE) environment. In this work, we evaluate the net present value (NPV) of retrofitting an existing natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) unit with a flexible PCC system while incorporating market signals from a high VRE grid. We use our industrial partner’s NGCC configuration as representative of existing NGCC units and Svante’s rapid-temperature swing adsorption (TSA) for PCC. Because of its ability to rapidly startup/shutdown and ramp-up/ramp-down, the chosen capture technology is very attractive for load-following operations. For a given set of market signals, we formulate a two-stage stochastic multi-period optimization problem, under the price-taker assumption, to simultaneously optimize the design of the capture system and operation of the entire plant. Rigorous models for the NGCC unit, PCC system, and compression system are developed using commercial process simulators and validated with either plant or vendor data. For computational tractability, we develop surrogate/reduced-order models for use in the optimization problem. The surrogate model for the NGCC plant is constructed by linearizing the rigorous dynamic model at 75% load, while data-driven nonlinear surrogate models for the capture and compression systems are constructed using simulation data from the rigorous models. The optimization problem, formulated as a mixed integer bilinear program, is implemented in the IDAES® integrated platform and solved to global optimality using Gurobi 9.5. Using this formulation, we determine the profitability of retrofitting an existing NGCC unit with the chosen capture system for multiple regions in the U.S. under two scenarios with different carbon prices. Importantly, the results show that the optimal decision strongly depends on the region and on the carbon price, thereby demonstrating the importance of the inclusion of market signals in the design process.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Active learning using hybrid surrogate tool life modeling for machining process optimization

Here, this paper describes an active learning approach for part-to-part iterative machining process optimization using a hybrid surrogate tool life model. A probabilistic interpolating tool life model is developed by combining the empirical Taylor-type tool life equation and the model fit error. The probabilistic tool life model is then used to calculate the machining cost per part distribution. The optimal machining parameters are selected using an expected improvement in machining cost per part criterion. The method is validated numerically using experimental results; the results show a median convergence error of 2.2% after three tests over 400 simulations. The method is validated experimentally on two industrial applications for Ti-6Al-4V roughing resulting in a cost per part reduction greater than 23% after two tests. The described method is a robust solution for rapid convergence to optimal machining parameters in an industrial production environment.

Active learning↗

Impact of various DIII-D diagnostics on the accuracy of neural network surrogates for kinetic EFIT reconstructions

Abstract Kinetic equilibrium reconstructions make use of profile information such as particle density and temperature measurements in addition to magnetics data to compute a self-consistent equilibrium. They are used in a multitude of physics-based modeling. This work develops a multi-layer perceptron (MLP) neural network (NN) model as a surrogate for kinetic Equilibrium Fitting (EFITs) and trains on the 2019 DIII-D discharge campaign database of kinetic equilibrium reconstructions. We investigate the impact of including various diagnostic data and machine actuator controls as input into the NN. When giving various categories of data as input into NN models that have been trained using those same categories of data, the predictions on multiple equilibrium reconstruction solutions (poloidal magnetic flux, global scalars, pressure profile, current profile) are highly accurate. When comparing different models with different diagnostics as input, the magnetics-only model outputs accurate kinetic profiles and the inclusion of additional data does not significantly impact the accuracy. When the NN is tasked with inferring only a single target such as the EFIT pressure profile or EFIT current profile, we see a large increase in the accuracy of the prediction of the kinetic profiles as more data is included. These results indicate that certain MLP NN configurations can be reasonably robust to different burning-plasma-relevant diagnostics depending on the accuracy requirements for equilibrium reconstruction tasks.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Artificial Intelligence/Deep Learning FRNN Software for Prediction & Real-Time Control of DIII-D Plasma Control System (PCS)

This collaborative project integrated an improved version of the Artificial Intelligence/Deep Learning FRNN prediction and control software into the real-time DIII-D PCS (plasma control system). A key AI/DL software challenge is to build a modern high-performance computing (HPC) enabled “synthetic plasma simulator” capable of carrying out HPC-driven real-time plasma control applications. This involves development of a deep learning framework to train the surrogate model for a first-principles-based instability analysis simulator (“SGTC”) derived from the global gyrokinetic code GTC. The role of SGTC is to provide accurate and detailed plasma instability information from a real-time AI-based simulator capability to complement the deep learning prediction and control from experimentally-measured signals, such as ECE Imaging, supplemented by synthetic SGTC-ECEI.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Advancing Sea Ice Predictability in E3SM with Machine Learning

Focal area(s): To improve predictions of sea ice in E3SM we propose to develop a hierarchy of data-driven models using observational and simulation data to investigate the most important Earth system drivers of sea ice variability and loss, develop surrogates that build on the reduced parameter space of important drivers, and, where appropriate, couple machine learning models with standard PDE models to capture important physical behavior at different scales. This work falls under Focal Area 2. Predictive modeling through the use of AI techniques.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Shape Optimization by Bayesian-Validated Computer-Simulation Surrogates

A nonparametric-validated, surrogate approach to optimization has been applied to the computational optimization of eddy-promoter heat exchangers and to the experimental optimization of a multielement airfoil. In addition to the baseline surrogate framework, a surrogate-Pareto framework has been applied to the two-criteria, eddy-promoter design problem. The Pareto analysis improves the predictability of the surrogate results, preserves generality, and provides a means to rapidly determine design trade-offs. Significant contributions have been made in the geometric description used for the eddy-promoter inclusions as well as to the surrogate framework itself. A level-set based, geometric description has been developed to define the shape of the eddy-promoter inclusions. The level-set technique allows for topology changes (from single-body,eddy-promoter configurations to two-body configurations) without requiring any additional logic. The continuity of the output responses for input variations that cross the boundary between topologies has been demonstrated. Input-output continuity is required for the straightforward application of surrogate techniques in which simplified, interpolative models are fitted through a construction set of data. The surrogate framework developed previously has been extended in a number of ways. First, the formulation for a general, two-output, two-performance metric problem is presented. Surrogates are constructed and validated for the outputs. The performance metrics can be functions of both outputs, as well as explicitly of the inputs, and serve to characterize the design preferences. By segregating the outputs and the performance metrics, an additional level of flexibility is provided to the designer. The validated outputs can be used in future design studies and the error estimates provided by the output validation step still apply, and require no additional appeals to the expensive analysis. Second, a candidate-based a posteriori error analysis capability has been developed which provides probabilistic error estimates on the true performance for a design randomly selected near the surrogate-predicted optimal design.

Patera, Anthony T.↗

White Paper: Research & Development for the Time at Temperature Approach

Recent advancements in nuclear power research are greatly improving reactor safety and performance through the development of Accident Tolerant Fuel (ATF) and Low-Enriched Uranium Plus (LEU+). These innovations can address Departure from Nucleate Boiling (DNB) margins, which are vital for reactor safety. DNB happens when the coolant switches to film boiling, significantly decreasing heat transfer and posing a risk of fuel cladding failure. The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) employs conservative DNB criteria, which can potentially restrict the operational flexibility and efficiency of reactors. The Time at Temperature (TaT) approach could provide a more detailed and adaptable operational guideline by establishing acceptable time-temperature limits, accounting for the duration a material can withstand elevated temperatures without losing its integrity. This method allows reactors to operate more efficiently and safely, offering additional operational margins, faster power adjustments, and improved fuel cycle economics. TaT criteria allow for higher power levels and more flexible responses to operational transients, particularly applicable for anticipated operational occurrences (AOOs) that result in short durations of post-DNB conditions. It enhances plant operational flexibility, allows faster startup times, and enables quicker power level adjustments, optimizing fuel loading patterns and improving fuel cycle economics. Implementing TaT limits reduces core design constraints, lowers fuel usage, and reduces costs, essential for the long-term sustainability of Light Water Reactors (LWRs). TaT maximizes the use of advanced fuel technologies like ATF and LEU+, further enhancing their economic and environmental benefits. To apply the TaT approach in existing LWRs, collaborative research activities among various DOE-sponsored programs are essential. These efforts should incorporate fuel experiments, physics-based high-fidelity modeling, ML-based surrogate modeling, and optimization techniques. This whitepaper proposes four research and development areas: 1) Investigation of the feasibility of new operations of LWR with updated safety limits; 2) Assessment of reactor operation limits through uncertainty reduction; 3) Evaluation of power uprate in virtual environment; and 4) Lattice and reactor core design for power uprate. Each area includes why this research is in need and a suggested scope of work. These comprehensive research areas ensure practical and beneficial advancements for existing reactors, translating innovations in nuclear fuel and cladding technology into improved reactor performance and safety.

42 - ENGINEERING↗

Advanced surrogate model for electron-scale turbulence in tokamak pedestals

We derive an advanced surrogate model for predicting turbulent transport at the edge of tokamaks driven by electron temperature gradient (ETG) modes. Our derivation is based on a recently developed sensitivity-driven sparse grid interpolation approach for uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis at scale, which informs the set of parameters that define the surrogate model as a scaling law. Our model reveals that ETG-driven electron heat flux is influenced by the safety factor q, electron beta β e and normalized electron Debye length λ D , in addition to well-established parameters such as the electron temperature and density gradients. To assess the trustworthiness of our model's predictions beyond training, we compute prediction intervals using bootstrapping. The surrogate model's predictive power is tested across a wide range of parameter values, including within-distribution testing parameters (to verify our model) as well as out-of-bounds and out-of-distribution testing (to validate the proposed model). Overall, validation efforts show that our model competes well with, or can even outperform, existing scaling laws in predicting ETG-driven transport.

fusion plasma↗

Machine learning surrogate for charged particle beam dynamics with space charge based on a recurrent neural network with aleatoric uncertainty

In this work, we develop a machine learning (ML) model with aleatoric uncertainty for the low energy beam transport (LEBT) region of the LANSCE linear accelerator in which we model the transport of a space-charge-dominated 750 keV proton beam through a lattice of 22 quadrupole magnets. Our ML model is developed based on data generated by a Kapchinsky–Vladimirsky (KV) envelope model of beam transport. We show that a recurrent neural network can be used as a dynamical surrogate model for fast prediction of the LEBT beam envelope. Furthermore, we endow the model with the prediction of aleatoric uncertainty and compare three different approaches. We demonstrate that the ML-based uncertainty quantification models are well calibrated and produce good estimates of the regions where the model is less certain about its predictions. This ML framework is a necessary step in the development of a real-time virtual diagnostic tool with uncertainty quantification that can be integrated into more complex downstream tasks (e.g., adaptive control or learning flexible control policies via reinforcement learning) for improved efficiency in beam operations. In future work, we plan to expand on this preliminary study by considering more realistic envelope models that include longitudinal momentum spread and dispersive effects in bending magnets, as well as particle tracking codes with 3D space charge (such as and ). Published by the American Physical Society 2024

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Physics insights from a large-scale 2D UEDGE simulation database for detachment control in KSTAR

A large-scale database of two-dimensional UEDGE simulations has been developed to study detachment physics in KSTAR and to support surrogate models for control applications. Nearly 70 000 steady-state solutions were generated, systematically scanning upstream density, input power, plasma current, impurity fraction, and anomalous transport coefficients, with magnetic and electric drifts across the magnetic field included. The database identifies robust detachment indicators, with strike-point electron temperature at detachment onset consistently T e,target ~ 3-4 eV, largely insensitive to upstream conditions. Scaling relations reveal weaker impurity sensitivity than one-dimensional models and show that heat flux widths follow Eich’s scaling only for uniform, low D and χ. Distinctive in–out divertor asymmetries are observed in KSTAR, differing qualitatively from DIII-D. Complementary time-dependent simulations quantify plasma response to gas puffing, with delays of 5 - 15 ms at the outer strike point and ∼ 40 ms for the low-magnetic-field-side radiation front. These dynamics are well captured by first-order-plus-dead-time models and are consistent with experimentally observed detachment-control behavior in KSTAR (Gupta et al 2025 Plasma Phys. Control. Fusion (submitted)).

Physics - Plasma physics↗

Accelerating discoveries at DIII-D with the Integrated Research Infrastructure

DIII-D research is being accelerated by leveraging high performance computing (HPC) and data resources available through the National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center (NERSC) Superfacility initiative. As part of this initiative, a high-resolution, fully automated, whole discharge kinetic equilibrium reconstruction workflow was developed that runs at the NERSC for most DIII-D shots in under 20 min. This has eliminated a long-standing research barrier and opened the door to more sophisticated analyses, including plasma transport and stability. These capabilities would benefit from being automated and executed within the larger Department of Energy Advanced Scientific Computing Research program’s Integrated Research Infrastructure (IRI) framework. The goal of IRI is to empower researchers to meld DOE’s world-class research tools, infrastructure, and user facilities seamlessly and securely in novel ways to radically accelerate discovery and innovation. For transport, we are looking at producing flux matched profiles and also using particle tracing to predict fast ion heat deposition from neutral beam injection before a shot takes place. Our starting point for evaluating plasma stability focuses on the pedestal limits that must be navigated to achieve better confinement. This information is meant to help operators run more effective experiments, so it needs to be available rapidly inside the DIII-D control room. So far this has been achieved by ensuring the data is available with existing tools, but as more novel results are produced new visualization tools must be developed. In addition, all of the high-quality data we have generated has been collected into databases that can unlock even deeper insights. This has already been leveraged for model and code validation studies as well as for developing AI/ML surrogates. The workflows developed for this project are intended to serve as prototypes that can be replicated on other experiments and can be run to provide timely and essential information for ITER, as well as next stage fusion power plants.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Part-scale microstructure prediction for laser powder bed fusion Ti-6Al-4V using a hybrid mechanistic and machine learning model

Laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) Ti-6Al-4V is widely studied for use in structural applications in aerospace and medical industries, but mechanical anisotropy and microstructural inhomogeneity prohibits its wider adoption. Although successful microstructure prediction models have been developed, a remaining challenge is their limited integration across length/time scales and validation by experimental studies. Here, this work proposes a physics-augmented machine learning surrogate model to unite predictions of LPBF temperature, β phase morphology and texture, and α/α’ formation into a single framework that is calibrated and validated with experiments. First, a phase field (PF) model of the martensitic β→α’ transformation is developed and calibrated using data from in-situ synchrotron cyclic heating/cooling studies quantifying the variation of α phase fraction with time. In parallel, an established finite difference-Monte Carlo (FDMC) model predicts the part-scale temperature profile and β grain formation during solidification. A dataset is developed using LPBF cyclic temperature descriptors from the FDMC model as inputs and corresponding α/α’ phase fraction and width from the PF model as outputs. Five machine learning (ML) regression models are tested and optimized, having mean absolute error in testing ≤ 4 %, and the k-nearest neighbors (KNN) model is selected as the best performing. The KNN model is called at the nodal level during post-processing of the FDMC model to replace and downscale the response of the PF model. The combined agility and accuracy of the hybrid FDMC-ML model enables part-scale microstructure predictions that can be further used for property predictions to accelerate AM process optimization.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Reservoir Computing as a Tool for Climate Predictability Studies

Reduced-order dynamical models play a central role in developing our understanding of predictability of climate irrespective of whether we are dealing with the actual climate system or surrogate climate models. In this context, the linear inverse modeling (LIM) approach, by capturing a few essential interactions between dynamical components of the full system, has proven valuable in providing insights into predictability of the full system. We demonstrate that reservoir computing (RC), a form of learning suitable for systems with chaotic dynamics, provides an alternative nonlinear approach that improves on the predictive skill of the LIM approach. We do this in the example setting of predicting sea surface temperature in the North Atlantic in the preindustrial control simulation of a popular earth system model, the Community Earth System Model so that we can compare the performance of the new RC-based approach with the traditional LIM approach both when learning data are plentiful and when such data are more limited. The improved predictive skill of the RC approach over a wide range of conditions—larger number of retained EOF coefficients, extending well into the limited data regime, etc.—suggests that this machine-learning technique may have a use in climate predictability studies. While the possibility of developing a climate emulator—the ability to continue the evolution of the system on the attractor long after failing to be able to track the reference trajectory—is demonstrated in the Lorenz-63 system, it is suggested that further development of the RC approach may permit such uses of the new approach in more realistic predictability studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

PALMO: An OVERFLOW Machine Learning Airfoil Performance Database

The OVERFLOW Machine Learning Airfoil Performance (PALMO) database has been created to enable robust modeling of airfoil performance in a variety of applications. The database uses OVERFLOW simulation data second-order accurate in time and fourth-order accurate in space with Spalart-Allmaras turbulence closure. The foundation of the in-development PALMO database is the airfoil base cube. Each base cube includes simulation data parametrized over a range of Mach numbers, Reynolds numbers, and angles-of-attack. This first release of the database includes the NACA 4-series airfoils, with parametrization in airfoil thickness and camber from an NACA 0006 to an NACA 4424. In total, 52,480 NACA 4-series calculations were run on the NASA High-End Compute Capability (HECC) supercomputer and the corresponding airfoil performance coefficients are embedded in the Appendix of this document for public distribution. This provides high-order-accurate simulation data covering a wide range of aerospace design applications, which enables users to develop OVERFLOW-quality airfoil performance look-up tables without additional high-performance computing. In addition to engineering design and analysis of aerospace vehicles, PALMO is well suited to be a benchmark dataset for the development and testing of machine learning methods in aerospace engineering. Downstream surrogate models enable OVERFLOW- quality airfoil performance predictions for any arbitrary combination of camber, thickness, Mach number, Reynolds number, and angle-of-attack within the bounds of the database.

Database↗