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Analysis Program (2023 Annual Progress Report)

This document summarizes the progress of VTO Analysis projects supported during the fiscal year 2023. The VTO Analysis Program supports mission-critical technological, economic, and interdisciplinary analyses to assist in prioritizing VTO technology investments and to inform research portfolio planning. These efforts provide essential vehicle and market data, modeling and simulation, and integrated and applied analyses, using the unique capabilities, analytical tools, and expertise resident in the DOE’s national laboratory system. VTO Analysis projects also demonstrate additional capabilities and expertise provided by research partnerships that may include academia, the private sector, and non-profit organizations.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Advancing Agrivoltaic Modeling With ADAM

Designing an agrivoltaic system presents a complex set of tradeoffs around PV system configuration, resulting performance, agricultural needs, and system economics. Developing tools for agrivoltaic analysis can assist system designers when making decisions related to these tradeoffs. We are developing the Agrivoltaics Design and Analysis Model (ADAM) as a free, publicly available web tool for agrivoltaics economics analysis. Features of ADAM include automated calculations for available agrivoltaic cropland, user-friendly configuration changes, inter-row irradiance calculations, and integrated economic modeling of energy and non-energy revenues. We will discuss the iterative process of agrivoltaic tool development including tradeoffs between accuracy and uncertainty, feature prioritization, and ease of use driven by our multi-disciplinary stakeholder design process. Finally, we will share modeling results from existing agrivoltaics systems as a preliminary case study.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Search for vector-like leptons with long-lived particle decays in the CMS muon system in proton-proton collisions at $$\sqrt{\text{s}}$$ = 13 TeV

Abstract A first search is presented for vector-like leptons (VLLs) exclusively decaying into a light long-lived pseudoscalar boson and a standard model τ lepton. The pseudoscalar boson is assumed to have a mass below the τ + τ − threshold, so that it decays exclusively into two photons. It is identified using the CMS muon system. The analysis is carried out using a data set of proton-proton collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV collected by the CMS experiment in 2016–2018, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 138 fb −1. Selected events contain at least one pseudoscalar boson decaying electromagnetically in the muon system and at least one hadronically decaying τ lepton. No significant excess of data events is observed compared to the background expectation. Upper limits are set at 95% confidence level on the vector-like lepton production cross section as a function of the VLL mass and the pseudoscalar boson mean proper decay length. The observed and expected exclusion ranges of the VLL mass extend up to 700 and 670 GeV, respectively, depending on the pseudoscalar boson lifetime.

Chekhovsky, V. [Yerevan Physics Institute]↗

Search for vector-like leptons with long-lived particle decays in the CMS muon system in proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV

A first search is presented for vector-like leptons (VLLs) exclusively decaying into a light long-lived pseudoscalar boson and a standard model τ lepton. The pseudoscalar boson is assumed to have a mass below the τ + τ − threshold, so that it decays exclusively into two photons. It is identified using the CMS muon system. The analysis is carried out using a data set of proton-proton collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV collected by the CMS experiment in 2016–2018, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 138 fb −1 . Selected events contain at least one pseudoscalar boson decaying electromagnetically in the muon system and at least one hadronically decaying τ lepton. No significant excess of data events is observed compared to the background expectation. Upper limits are set at 95% confidence level on the vector-like lepton production cross section as a function of the VLL mass and the pseudoscalar boson mean proper decay length. The observed and expected exclusion ranges of the VLL mass extend up to 700 and 670 GeV, respectively, depending on the pseudoscalar boson lifetime.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

A practical control strategy for demand flexibility with ensured occupant comfort in grid-interactive efficient buildings

This study proposes a practical and simplified demand response (DR) control strategy from the perspective of grid-interactive efficient buildings (GEBs), aiming to secure demand flexibility while ensuring occupant thermal comfort. Focusing on summer on-peak periods, a linear demand response (LDR) strategy that integrates cooling setpoint adjustment and lighting dimming was designed, and its performance was quantitatively evaluated. A case study was conducted using EnergyPlus-based simulations for a U.S. DOE small office prototype building under summer on-peak weather conditions. Compared with a conventional rapid demand response (RDR) strategy, the proposed LDR approach gradually reduced electrical loads while maintaining occupant thermal comfort indices, including predicted mean vote (PMV) and predicted percentage of dissatisfied (PPD), within acceptable comfort ranges. Quantitative analysis of demand flexibility using the grid-interactive impact index (GII) and the flexibility strength index (FSI) showed that the LDR strategy provided approximately 12.5% demand flexibility during DR periods and achieved an electricity cost reduction of about 8.8%. In addition, the results of the part-load ratio (PLR)-based cooling system performance analysis showed that, in the on-peak period, the LDR strategy exhibited improved cooling performance compared with the baseline. Overall, this study shows the potential of a practical DR control strategy that can simultaneously achieve occupant comfort and demand flexibility without relying on complex advanced control technologies.

Jung, Dong Eun↗

MS25: Materials Science-Focused Benchmark Data Set for Machine Learning Interatomic Potentials

Here, we present MS25, a benchmark data set for evaluating machine learning interatomic potentials (MLIPs) across diverse materials-relevant systems including MgO surfaces, liquid water, zeolites, a catalytic Pt surface reaction, high-entropy alloys (HEAs), and disordered Zr-oxides. Five MLIP architectures (MACE, NequIP, Allegro, MTP, and Torch-ANI) are trained and tested, focusing not only on traditional metrics (energies, forces, and stresses) but also explicitly validating derived physical observables such as lattice constants, volumes, and reaction barriers. We find that most models reach comparable accuracy on standard error metrics across the simple systems, although equivariant MLIPs offer 1.5–2× improvements over nonequivariant MLIPs in energy and force error for structurally complex or compositionally disordered environments such as HEAs and Zr–O systems. Our analysis highlights that low errors in energy and force predictions do not guarantee reliable observables, emphasizing the necessity of explicit validation. We demonstrate limitations in cross-framework transferability, as models trained on one zeolite framework (CHA) fail to reliably generalize to predictions of structurally distinct frameworks (e.g., MFI). Size-extensive tests show some dependence on system size for MgO, resulting from forced periodicity. The HEA and Zr–O data sets are identified as challenging tests for future benchmarks and MLIP model architecture developments as they show significant differentiation in error between MLIP architectures and are still relatively difficult at 1000 training images. Moving forward, we recommend that benchmarking efforts shift their focus from marginal accuracy improvements in energy and force errors toward identifying and understanding model failure modes, rigorously assessing transferability, and evaluating how their errors affect observable predictions. For researchers looking to choose an MLIP architecture, we suggest selecting equivariant MLIP architectures if the complexity of the system is a challenge. For simple materials problems, auxiliary features such as integration with molecular dynamics engines, trade-offs between computational data set generation cost vs MLIP inference speed, and framework integration may play a more important decision factor than small differences in error metrics that are unlikely to matter for production-level research.

chemical structure↗

Induction Melter Processing Alternatives for High Level Radioactive Wastes – 26198

This work investigates the potential to vitrify nuclear fuel directly, as well as the vitrification potential associated with experimental dissolver solutions. Greater understanding of the exothermicity is needed to quantify processing risk, especially with respect to potential phase changes and associated explosion hazards present in some systems. Thermal analysis was carried out on various simulants to elucidate the exothermic reaction potential from solid metal dissolution in glass and from the drying of alternative process dissolver solutions. Results from experimental testing of simulants to demonstrate vitrification potential and compatibility indicate that alternative dissolver flowsheets suppress the heat released during processing and that common silicate- and phosphate- based glass systems are potential candidates for direct vitrification. Direct vitrification (conversion) of fuel simulants was assessed using laboratory scale glass melts to obtain qualitative information on dissolution rates and waste loadings. Initial tests were successful to dissolve and incorporate metal directly into glass, although the kinetics and limits of dissolution and incorporation into glass are not fully understood.

Amoroso, Jake [Savannah River National Laboratory ↗

SAS4A/SASSYS-1 Modeling Improvements for the Transition to Natural Circulation

SAS4A/SASSYS-1 (SAS) is a simulation tool used to perform deterministic analyses of anticipated events as well as design basis and beyond design basis accidents for advanced liquid-metal-cooled nuclear reactors. With its origin as SAS1A in the late 1960s, the SAS series of codes has been under continuous use and development for over fifty years and represents a critical investment in safety analysis capabilities for the U.S. Department of Energy. In recent years, SAS has undergone a number of improvements to enable improved safety analyses that meet end users’ modernized needs while complying with the current regulatory environment. Improvements made in versions 5.6 and 5.7 released within the last year include the development of anisotropic Reynolds number dependent loss coefficients throughout the core and heat transport systems, the ability to distinguish the transition friction factor from the fully developed laminar and turbulent friction factors, and timedependent direct coolant and wall heating for pipe-like elements in the heat transport systems. While it was possible to capture loss coefficients, friction factors, and heat transfer from an element to a heat sink within SAS in previous versions of the code, users were required to end the simulation and restart it to adjust the input to account for any significant changes to the values during the transient. With these improvements, users can better capture flow reversal, pump heating, and the transition from forced to natural circulation without being limited to constant orifice coefficients, constant heat sinks, or the need to restart the simulation and modify input. In order to demonstrate the application of these improvements, a loss of flow transient is simulated for the Advanced Burner Test Reactor (ABTR).

SAS4A/SASSYS-1↗

Comparative study between experimental measurements and model predictions of bubble rise velocity in molten LiCl-KCl

This research investigated the shape and rise velocities of gas bubbles (helium, nitrogen, argon, and krypton) in molten LiCl-KCl at 500 °C using a specialized optical visualization apparatus. The apparatus features a custom quartz rectangular prism cell housed in a furnace, enabling the application of the shadowgraph measurement technique. Bubbles with diameters between 0.45 and 3.2 mm were produced via a capillary, and their equivalent diameters and rise velocities were analyzed using high-resolution imaging and centroid tracking algorithms. Important non-dimensional parameters were calculated to characterize behavior. Bubbles with 0.03 < Eo < 1.32, 17 < Re < 718, and Mo order of 10 -11 were generated in the molten LiCl-KCl, revealing that bubbles with diameters less than 1.46 mm remain spherical, whereas those with larger diameters are ellipsoidal. The transition and oscillation onset for bubble shape occurred at larger diameters than those previously observed in air–water systems. Comparative analysis of the gas-molten salt data against existing air–water bubble rise velocity correlations highlighted inaccuracies in predictions, particularly across the different bubble regimes. An existing correlation was calibrated to the molten salt data to improve the bubble velocity predictions. In conclusion, this study contributes essential experimental data for the design and safety evaluation of molten salt reactors and offers insights for the optimization of sparge systems for fission product removal.

Bubble rise velocity↗

Reservoir Characterization and Techno-Economic Analysis of Enhanced Geothermal and Closed-Loop Systems in the Wattenberg Field of the Denver-Julesburg Basin, Colorado

This report provides details of reservoir characterization and techno-economic analysis for enhanced geothermal systems and closed-loop geothermal systems in the Denver-Julesburg Basin Wattenberg area. The analysis contributes to the Geothermal Limitless Approach to Drilling Efficiencies (GLADE) project, a multi-institutional research initiative focused on advancing geothermal energy development by reducing drilling costs and improving the rate of penetration. The GLADE project brings together national laboratories, academic institutions, and industry partners, including the U.S. Department of Energy's Geothermal Technologies Office, Occidental Petroleum, the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR), Los Alamos National Laboratory, Colorado School of Mines, Louisiana State University, Texas A&M University, and several drilling technology companies. As part of this effort, NLR developed and applied slender-body theory modeling tools and the GEOPHIRES simulator to support techno-economic analysis. The slender-body theory wellbore simulator evaluated thermal performance in U-loop, Eavor-type multilateral, and enhanced geothermal system well configurations. Results indicated that an optimized single U-loop design delivers an outlet temperature of 168.8 degrees Celsius,stabilizing at a final outlet temperature of 135.3 degrees Celsius. Heat production also improved significantly, with an average thermal output of 16.9 MWth and a final thermal output of 11.0 MWth. These results provided critical baseline data for selecting optimized systems for techno-economic analysis. Building on these outputs, NLR applied the GEOPHIRES techno-economic simulator to estimate the levelized cost of electricity for both the Eavor multilateral and enhanced geothermal systems. The sensitivity analysis showed that drilling costs exert a particularly strong impact on the levelized cost of electricity of multilateral systems. Therefore, advances in drilling technology and improved drilling rates could yield significant gains in the economic performance of these systems. In this context, the GLADE project directly supports the U.S. Department of Energy's mission to reduce the cost of geothermal energy and accelerate the deployment of next-generation geothermal technologies.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Integrating the PanDA Workload Management System with the Vera C. Rubin Observatory

The Vera C. Rubin Observatory will produce an unprecedented astronomical data set for studies of the deep and dynamic universe. Its Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) will image the entire southern sky every three to four days and produce tens of petabytes of raw image data and associated calibration data over the course of the experiment’s run. More than 20 terabytes of data must be stored every night, and annual campaigns to reprocess the entire dataset since the beginning of the survey will be conducted over ten years. The Production and Distributed Analysis (PanDA) system was evaluated by the Rubin Observatory Data Management team and selected to serve the Observatory’s needs due to its demonstrated scalability and flexibility over the years, for its Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) support, its support for multi-site processing, and its highly scalable complex workflows via the intelligent Data Delivery Service (iDDS). PanDA is also being evaluated for prompt processing where data must be processed within 60 seconds after image capture. This paper will briefly describe the Rubin Data Management system and its Data Facilities (DFs). Finally, it will describe in depth the work performed in order to integrate the PanDA system with the Rubin Observatory to be able to run the Rubin Science Pipelines using PanDA.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Quantifying System Strength From Grid-Forming Resources Using Frequency Scan Approach: Preprint

Current industry practices for quantifying the system strength contribution from grid-forming (GFM) resources to ensure stability of power systems dominated by inverter-based resources (IBRs) are primarily based on iterative electromagnetic transient (EMT) time-domain simulation studies. While feasible, these approaches are resource-intensive, lack scalability and intuition, and might not evaluate the system strength contribution over the entire frequency range of interest. This paper introduces a novel, frequency-domain approach to quantify system strength support provided by a GFM resource using frequency scans. The proposed method uses transfer functions from the grid voltage magnitude (V) and phase (?), respectively, to the reactive (Q) and active power (P) output of a GFM resource for quantifying its contribution to system strength. These transfer functions provide a direct measure of the ability of a GFM resource to behave as a stiff voltage source behind a reactance over a specified frequency range, enabling robust quantification of its system strength contribution. The key innovation of this work is the development of a frequency domain system strength metric called the dynamic short-circuit ratio (dSCR) that is suitable for IBR-dominated power systems and is directly related with the familiar short circuit ratio (SCR) metric. The new metric, dSCR, enables the assessment of system strength contributions from both synchronous machines and converter-based GFM resources using a unified benchmark, which is not possible with the traditional SCR metric. The paper also demonstrates how impedance scans could identify if an unstable condition observed during weak grid conditions is a result of the lack active or reactive power support or both. By leveraging the proposed frequency-domain dSCR metric for quantifying system strength contribution from GFM IBRs, the paper demonstrates targeted mitigation strategies for weak grid instabilities without resorting to repeated, time-consuming time-domain simulations. The result is a scalable and efficient approach to remediate stability challenges in power systems with high shares of IBRs and accelerating the integration of GFM technologies for system strength support in power systems.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Simulation insights into wetting properties of hydrogen-brine-clay for hydrogen geo-storage

Hydrogen geo-storage is attracting substantial interdisciplinary interest as a cost-effective and sustainable option for medium- and long-term storage. Hydrogen can be stored underground in diverse formations, including aquifers, salt caverns, and depleted oil and gas reservoirs. The wetting dynamics of the hydrogen-brine-rock system are critical for assessing both structural and residual storage capacities, and ensuring containment safety. Through molecular dynamics simulations, we explore how varying concentrations of cushion gases (CO 2 or CH 4 ) influence the wetting properties of hydrogen-brine-clay systems under geological conditions (15 MPa and 333 K). We employed models of talc and the hydroxylated basal face of kaolinite (kaoOH) as clay substrates. Our findings reveal that the effect of cushion gases on hydrogen-brine-clay wettability is strongly dependent on the clay-brine interactions. Notably, CO 2 and CH 4 reduce the water wettability of talc in hydrogen-brine-talc systems, while exerting no influence on the wettability of hydrogen-brine-kaoOH systems. Detailed analysis of free energy of cavity formation near clay surfaces, clay-brine interfacial tensions, and the Willard-Chandler surface for gas-brine interfaces elucidate the molecular mechanisms underlying wettability changes. Our simulations identify empirical correlations between wetting properties and the average free energy required to perturb a flat interface when clay-brine interactions are less dominant. Here, our thorough thermodynamic analysis of rock-fluid and fluid-fluid interactions, aligning with key experimental observations, underscores the utility of simulated interfacial properties in refining contact angle measurements and predicting experimentally relevant properties. These insights significantly enhance the assessment of gas geo-storage potential. Prospectively, the approaches and findings obtained from this study could form a basis for more advanced multiscale simulations that consider a range of geological and operational variables, potentially guiding the development and improvement of geo-storage systems in general, with a particular focus on hydrogen storage.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

ThinCurr: An open-source 3D thin-wall eddy current modeling code for the analysis of large-scale systems of conducting structures

In this paper we present a new thin-wall eddy current modeling code, ThinCurr, for studying inductively-coupled currents in 3D conducting structures -- with primary application focused on the interaction between currents flowing in coils, plasma, and conducting structures of magnetically-confined plasma devices. The code utilizes a boundary finite element method on an unstructured, triangular grid to accurately capture device structures. The new code, part of the broader Open FUSION Toolkit, is open-source and designed for ease of use without sacrificing capability and speed through a combination of Python, Fortran, and C/C++ components. Scalability to large models is enabled through use of hierarchical off-diagonal low-rank compression of the inductance matrix, which is otherwise dense. Ease of handling large models of complicated geometry is further supported by automatic determination of supplemental elements through a greedy homology approach. Here, a detailed description of the numerical methods of the code and verification of the implementation of those methods using cross-code comparisons against the VALEN code and Ansys commercial analysis software is shown.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Imaging and spatially resolved mass spectrometry applications in nephrology

The application of spatially resolved mass spectrometry (MS) and MS imaging approaches for studying biomolecular processes in the kidney is rapidly growing. These powerful methods, which enable label-free and multiplexed detection of many molecular classes across omics domains (including metabolites, drugs, proteins and protein post-translational modifications), are beginning to reveal new molecular insights related to kidney health and disease. Further, the complexity of the kidney often necessitates multiple scales of analysis for interrogating biofluids, whole organs, functional tissue units, single cells and subcellular compartments. Various MS methods can generate omics data across these spatial domains and facilitate both basic science and pathological assessment of the kidney. Optimal processes related to sample preparation and handling for different MS applications are rapidly evolving. Emerging technology and methods, improvement of spatial resolution, broader molecular characterization, multimodal and multiomics approaches and the use of machine learning and artificial intelligence approaches promise to make these applications even more valuable in the field of nephology. Overall, spatially resolved MS and MS imaging methods have the potential to fill much of the omics gap in systems biology analysis of the kidney and provide functional outputs that cannot be obtained using genomics and transcriptomic methods.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Oxidative stress is a shared characteristic of ME/CFS and Long COVID

Over 65 million individuals worldwide are estimated to have Long COVID (LC), a complex multisystemic condition marked by fatigue, post-exertional malaise, and other symptoms resembling myalgic encephalomyelitis/chronic fatigue syndrome (ME/CFS). With no clinically approved treatments or reliable diagnostic markers, there is an urgent need to define the molecular underpinnings of these conditions. By studying bioenergetic characteristics of peripheral blood lymphocytes in 25 healthy controls, 27 ME/CFS, and 20 LC donors, we find both ME/CFS and LC donors exhibit signs of elevated oxidative stress, especially in the memory subset. Using a combination of flow cytometry, RNA-seq, mass spectrometry, and systems chemistry analysis, we observed aberrations in reactive oxygen species (ROS) clearance pathways including elevated glutathione levels, decreases in mitochondrial superoxide dismutase protein levels, and glutathione peroxidase 4–mediated lipid oxidative damage. Strikingly, these redox pathways changes show sex-specific trends. While ME/CFS females exhibit higher total ROS and mitochondrial calcium levels, males have normal ROS levels, with pronounced mitochondrial lipid oxidative damage. In females, these higher ROS levels correlate with T cell hyperproliferation, consistent with the known role of elevated ROS in initiating proliferation. This hyperproliferation can be attenuated by metformin, suggesting this Food and Drug Administration (FDA)-approved drug as a possible treatment, as also suggested by a recent clinical study of LC patients. Moreover, these results suggest a shared mechanistic basis for the systemic phenotypes of ME/CFS and LC, which can be detected by quantitative blood cell measurements, and that effective, patient-tailored drugs might be discovered using standard lymphocyte stimulation assays.

ME/CFS↗

Preliminary neutronic and thermal analysis of Inertial Fusion Energy systems with a focus on thick liquid wall concepts

This paper provides an assessment of the neutronic behavior of Inertial Fusion Energy systems using the Serpent 2 Monte Carlo code. The study explores different types of reactor concepts, including dry-wall and thick liquid wall systems. In particular, it characterizes the tritium breeding and energy multiplication performance, as well as the effect of long-term irradiation on structural materials. For this purpose, the displacement per atom (DPA) and the gas production rate in structural materials are calculated. A simplified geometry with varying geometrical parameters is used as a representation for the different kinds of devices. Additionally, the case of the HYLIFE-II concept is used to assess modeling inaccuracies arising from certain approximations. A comparison between the simplified geometry and a realistic one is performed, thanks to Serpent’s capability to run transport calculations on unstructured meshes. The study then addresses the impact of these discrepancies on the temperature distribution in the first wall using the GeN-Foam code for conjugate heat transfer analysis. The results highlight the necessity to consider the heterogeneous nature of the liquid wall, as simplified models tend to underestimate radiation damage metrics and heat loads.

Conjugate heat transfer↗

Bringing solar to agriculture: An interdisciplinary design and analysis of a Concord grape agrivoltaic system

Agrivoltaics presents an opportunity to integrate solar photovoltaics (PV) with agricultural production, but crop-specific challenges and operational constraints remain underexplored. This study develops and evaluates a Concord grape agrivoltaic system in the Lake Erie American Viticulture Area, where vineyards face economic pressures and land use conflicts with solar development. Starting with vertical, tracking, and overhead PV systems, we model photosynthetic photon flux density (PPFD) reduction in grapevines and power generation losses from shading using the Agrivoltaic Radiation Tool (ART). Based on these results, which indicate 0.47 % annual grapevine PPFD loss for vertical designs, 1.6 % for tracking, and up to 25 % for the overhead systems, the vertical and tracking designs are selected for further computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analysis to evaluate airflow interactions. CFD results show that vertical panels do not significantly impact airflow through the grapevine canopy, and that tracking systems in horizontal position may enhance airflow compared to a vine-only scenario. Considering operational constraints for tracking systems, the vertical design is selected for an economic evaluation to reveal key financial outcomes for solar developers (14-year payback period) and growers ($408 reduction in financial losses per acre annually). A sensitivity analysis quantifies uncertainty in power generation (±8.8 %) and PPFD (±5.0 %), ensuring model robustness across different vineyard conditions. Furthermore, these findings provide quantitative evidence for the feasibility of Concord grape agrivoltaics, demonstrating a synergistic opportunity for dual-use solar while preserving cultural heritage in grape-growing regions.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗