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At least 271 records · Page 15
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Organochlorine pesticides and risk of papillary thyroid cancer in U.S. military personnel: a nested case-control study

Background: The effects of organochlorine pesticide (OCP) exposure on the development of human papillary thyroid cancer (PTC) are not well understood. A nested case-control study was conducted with data from the U.S. Department of Defense Serum Repository (DoDSR) cohort between 2000 and 2013 to assess associations of individual OCPs serum concentrations with PTC risk. Methods: This study included 742 histologically confirmed PTC cases (341 females, 401 males) and 742 individually-matched controls with pre-diagnostic serum samples selected from the DoDSR. Associations between categories of lipid-corrected serum concentrations of seven OCPs and PTC risk were evaluated for classical PTC and follicular PTC using conditional logistic regression, adjusted for body mass index category and military branch to compute odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Effect modification by sex, birth cohort, and race was examined. Results: There was no evidence of associations between most of the OCPs and PTC, overall or stratified by histological subtype. Overall, there was no evidence of an association between hexachlorobenzene (HCB) and PTC, but stratified by histological subtype HCB was associated with significantly increased risk of classical PTC (third tertile above the limit of detection (LOD) vs. <LOD, OR = 1.61, 95% CI, 1.09, 2.38; p for trend = 0.05) and significantly decreased risk of follicular variant PTC (third tertile above the limit of detection (LOD) vs. <LOD, OR = 0.38, 95% CI, 0.16, 0.91; p for trend = 0.04). Further stratified by sex, risk of classical PTC was higher for females (third tertile above LOD vs. <LOD, OR = 2.23, 95% CI: 1.23, 4.06; p-trend = 0.02) than for males (OR = 1.22, 95%CI: 0.72–2.08; p-trend = 0.56), though the test for interaction by sex was not statistically significant (p-interaction = 0.30). Similarly, β-hexachlorocyclohexane (β-HCCH) was associated with a higher risk for classical PTC for women with concentrations ≥LOD versus <LOD (OR = 1.76, 95% CI: 1.07, 2.89), while the effects were null for men. There were no consistent trends when stratified by race or birth year. Conclusions: The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has classified HCB and other OCPs we studied here as probable human carcinogens. Our findings of increased risks for classical PTC associated with increased concentrations of HCB and β-HCCH, which were stronger among females, should be replicated in future studies of other populations.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Neutrino Program at Fermilab - Enhancing Proton Beam Power and Accelerator Infrastructure

The upcoming long baseline neutrino experiments aim to enhance proton beam power to multi-MW scale and utilize large-scale detectors to address the challenge of limited event statistics. The DUNE experiment at LBNF will test the three-neutrino flavor paradigm and directly search for CP violation by studying oscillation signatures in the high intensity (anti-) beam to (anti-) measured over a long baseline. Higher beam power and improved accelerator up-time will enhance neutrino flux for the neutrino program by increasing the number of protons on target. LBNF/DUNE, as well as PIP-II upgrade and Accelerator Complex Evolution (ACE) plan, play a vital role in this effort. The scientific potential of ACE plan extends beyond neutrino physics, encompassing endeavors such as the Muon Collider, Charged Lepton Flavor Violation (CLFV), Dark Sectors, and exploration of neutrinos beyond DUNE.\par In the era of higher-power accelerator operation, research in target materials and beam instrumentation is crucial for optimizing design modifications. This abstract discusses Fermilab ACE, the science opportunities it provides, and how Fermilab is pushing the limits of proton beam power and accelerator infrastructure. By tackling neutrino beam challenges and exploring research and development ideas, we are advancing our understanding of fundamental particles and their interactions.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Algae Biofilm Produced from Anaerobic Digester Wastewater Demonstrated as Biofertilizer for Dwarf Wheat

Aims: To correlate yield of dwarf wheat fertilized with algae biofilm produced using anaerobic digester effluent (digestate) from a municipal water resource recovery facility as nutrient source and compare with yield using non-algae biofilm based fertilizers and a negative control. Study Design: Greenhouse testing for measurement of biomass yields and statistical analysis of wheat yield data results. Place and Duration of Study: Department of Biological Engineering Algae Processing and Products Facility greenhouse between March and June, 2024. Methodology: Yield of a dwarf cultivar of red spring wheat was measured as a function of four treatments including three fertilizers and a negative control: (1) algae biofilm cultivated on anaerobic digester effluent, (2) positive control of Osmocote commercial slow release fertilizer, (3) anaerobic digester biosolids, and (4) negative control with no fertilizer addition. Results: Average yield values (gm) for the four treatments were: (1) 1.25, (2) 0.99, (3) 0.72, and (4) 0.52, respectively. Algae biofilm fertilizer performed significantly better than Osmocote with P = .002, anaerobic digester biosolids with P = .05, and no fertilizer addition with P = .05. Struvite, a slow release fertilizer, was observed to be associated with the algae biofilm as a precipitate of the high concentrations of nutrients within the anaerobic digester water. Struvite (MgNH4PO46H2O) releases plant available nitrogen and phosphorus over time and is biologically precipitated due to the increase in solution pH as a result of photosynthesis by the algae biofilm. Conclusion: Algae biofilm cultivated on anaerobic digester wastewater can serve as a biofertilizer for recycling nutrients within the biosphere for sustainable nutrient management.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluating Safeguards Statistical Assumptions via Stochastic Simulation

Herein, the authors built and tested a stochastic simulation to estimate achieved detection probabilities (DPs) on a stratum basis, over a tailorable range of diverted amounts from 0 to 2 SQ, using typical IAEA inspection data: i.e., SQ in stratum, number of items, number of gross/partial/bias defect measurements conducted, and realistic relative standard deviation (RSD) values for typical IAEA verification measurements. For bulk strata, the model calculates achieved DP at 0.01 SQ diversion increments; for item strata, the model calculates DP using the smallest realistic diversion increment (e.g., a plate, pin, or coupon). After successfully benchmarking against IAEA deterministic models, the simulation was used to test the sensitivity of DP to certain standard assumptions and selected input parameters. First, the equal defect assumption was tested; the results suggest significant complexity in the effectiveness of partial defect measurements. Next, the authors explored the sensitivity of DP to the assumed RSD of attribute tests. Then, the authors compared non-normal models for instrument performance (e.g., logistic, step, or arbitrary functions) to the typical results from a normal distribution (characterized by RSD). This last comparison was supplemented with experimentally derived performance data for an HM-5. The HM-5 was used to make enrichment measurements on both LEU and HEU MTR fuel elements as plates were removed, and the results fit with logistic and step curves and applied in the simulation. These stochastic DP results were compared to DP estimates from a deterministic model assuming a normal curve and typical RSD, yielding insights that could improve effectiveness in the field. These early results illustrate the potential of stochastic models to better understand achieved DP and to improve safeguards effectiveness.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗
DOE OSTI2022

OPTIMIZATION OF A NUCLEAR VESSEL OUTLET FOR INCIDENT MONITORING

Classical nuclear core fluidic design techniques require improvement to better align with modern technological innovations. The US Department of Energy’s Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE) Transformational Challenge Reactor (TCR) program is deploying additive manufacturing and advanced modeling and simulation to reimagine these designs. With the aid of modern computing power, computerized design optimization can be implemented to remove unwanted pressure drop while simultaneously optimizing flow structures, resulting in new opportunities to enable advanced instrumentation and monitoring capabilities.Previous development of geometric specifications for the TCR pressure vessel’s outlet plenum used design optimization to (1) limit pressure losses below 3.5 kPa (~0.5 psi) and (2) create a fluidic plane in which the temperature variation would not exceed ±5°C. This significant limit of the allowable pressure drop stems from the overarching goal of the TCR program to apply cutting edge techniques and unconventional thinking to demonstrate potential opportunities in additive manufacturing (AM).This paper expands the previous work by optimizing thermowell locations for robust measurements by explicitly modeling them and the resulting flow impacts. Additionally, a single core coolant channel was chosen to represent an event that causes an increased bulk flow temperature increase of 100°C.High fidelity unsteady Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (URANS) simulations of the conjugate heat transfer problem were run in Siemen’s Star-CCM+ for this study. Next, the bulk flow temperature of a single coolant channel was increased by 100°C and was allowed to converge again. Finally, statistical analysis using a sequential probability ratio test (SPRT) was used to determine the elapsed time the thermocouples took to discover the increased bulk flow temperature.

See, Nate↗
DOE OSTI2024

Neutrino Program at Fermilab - Enhancing Proton Beam Power and Accelerator Infrastructure

The upcoming long baseline neutrino experiments aim to enhance proton beam power to multi-MW scale and utilize large-scale detectors to address the challenge of limited event statistics. The DUNE experiment at LBNF will test the three neutrino flavor paradigm and directly search for CP violation by studying oscillation signatures in the high intensity $\nu_{\mu}$ (anti-$\nu_{\mu}$) beam to $\nu_e$ (anti-$\nu_e$) measured over a long baseline.\par Higher beam power and improved accelerator up-time will enhance neutrino flux for the neutrino program by increasing the number of protons on target. LBNF/DUNE, as well as PIP-II upgrade and Accelerator Complex Evolution (ACE) plan, play a vital role in this effort. The scientific potential of ACE plan extends beyond neutrino physics, encompassing endeavors such as the Muon Collider, Charged Lepton Flavor Violation (CLFV), Dark Sectors, and exploration of neutrinos beyond DUNE. In the era of higher-power accelerator operation, research in target materials and beam instrumentation is crucial for optimizing design modifications. This abstract discusses Fermilab ACE, the science opportunities it provides, and how Fermilab is pushing the limits of proton beam power and accelerator infrastructure. By tackling neutrino beam challenges and exploring research and development ideas, we are advancing our understanding of fundamental particles and their interactions.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Neutrino Program at Fermilab -- Enhancing proton beam power and accelerator infrastructure

The upcoming long baseline neutrino experiments aim to enhance proton beam power to multi-MW scale and utilize large-scale detectors to address the challenge of limited event statistics. The DUNE experiment at LBNF will test the three neutrino flavor paradigm and directly search for CP violation by studying oscillation signatures in the high intensity $\nu_{\mu}$ (anti-$\nu_{\mu}$) beam to $\nu_{e}$ (anti-$\nu_{e}$) measured over a long baseline. Higher beam power and improved accelerator up-time will enhance neutrino flux for the neutrino program by increasing the number of protons on target. LBNF/DUNE, as well as PIP-II upgrade and Accelerator Complex Evolution (ACE) plan, play a vital role in this effort. The scientific potential of ACE plan extends beyond neutrino physics, encompassing endeavors such as the Muon Collider, Charged Lepton Flavor Violation (CLFV), Dark Sectors, and exploration of neutrinos beyond DUNE.\par In the era of higher-power accelerator operation , research in target materials and beam instrumentation is crucial for optimizing design modifications. This abstract discusses Fermilab ACE, the science opportunities it provides, and how Fermilab is pushing the limits of proton beam power and accelerator infrastructure. By tackling neutrino beam challenges and exploring research and development ideas, we are advancing our understanding of fundamental particles and their interactions.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Enhanced climate reproducibility testing with false discovery rate correction

Simulating the Earth's climate is an important and complex problem, thus climate models are similarly complex, comprised of millions of lines of code. In order to appropriately utilize the latest computational and software infrastructure advancements in Earth system models running on modern hybrid computing architectures to improve their performance, precision, accuracy, or all three; it is important to ensure that model simulations are repeatable and robust. This introduces the need for establishing statistical or non-bit-for-bit reproducibility, since bit-for-bit reproducibility may not always be achievable. Here, we propose a short-simulation ensemble-based test for an atmosphere model to evaluate the null hypothesis that modified model results are statistically equivalent to that of the original model. We implement this test in version 2 of the US Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). The test evaluates a standard set of output variables across the two simulation ensembles and uses a false discovery rate correction to account for multiple testing. The false positive rates of the test are examined using re-sampling techniques on large simulation ensembles and are found to be lower than the currently implemented bootstrapping-based testing approach in E3SM. We also evaluate the statistical power of the test using perturbed simulation ensemble suites, each with a progressively larger magnitude of change to a tuning parameter. The new test is generally found to exhibit more statistical power than the current approach, being able to detect smaller changes in parameter values with higher confidence.

Kelleher, Michael E. [Oak Ridge National Laborator↗
DOE OSTI2024

Tools for Water Ingress Testing

The Safety Storage and Engineering Team, as part of the Production Support Services division (PSS-2), is tasked with ensuring the safety of containers used for handling and storage of nuclear materials. As part of this work, water ingress tests are conducted to evaluate the water-tightness of containers intended for in-glovebox use. In collaboration, the statistics group of the Computer and Computational Sciences Division (CCS-6) provided support in developing a statistically defensible approach for determining appropriate sample sizes for water ingress testing. Water ingress testing involves multiple measurements on multiple containers. Our approach uses a simple random effects model to analyze a pilot data set, implementing prediction limits to evaluate the efficacy of collecting additional data. Although this study capitalizes on available data, our approach can be used with estimates of the ratio of between and within variability and average values, often available from past testing or expert knowledge. An interactive Shiny tool was developed as a final user-friendly product for future testing. The Shiny interface is an open-source package providing a framework for building web applications. Raw data exploration and prediction interval-based sample size assessments can quickly be conducted by the engineering team without needing to interact with the underlying code.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Deformation and fracture characteristics of zirconium plate produced via ultrasonic additive manufacturing

Abstract The microstructural evolution, deformation modes, and fracture mechanisms of zirconium plate produced using ultrasonic additive manufacturing (UAM) are presented. In addition to conventional tensile testing techniques, digital image correlation captured highly variable strain accumulation in specimens loaded perpendicular or parallel to the build height (Z). When tested in parallel to Z, delamination at prior foil/foil interfaces creates strain localization noticeable in strain rate maps, whereas specimens loaded perpendicular to Z illustrate conventional strain hardening until necking accelerates delamination. Although bond strengths are statistically and spatially variable, in situ electron backscattering diffraction tests illustrate the ability for grains near interfaces to accommodate strain with twinning and slip modes consistent with conventionally produced zirconium alloys. Finally, mixtures of ductile and delamination-induced fracture highlight the interface-driven failure modes of UAM zirconium plate in the as-built condition. Graphic abstract

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Deep Learning Experiments for Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasts

Reducing tropical cyclone (TC) intensity forecast errors is a challenging task that has interested the operational forecasting and research community for decades. To address this, we developed a deep learning (DL)-based multilayer perceptron (MLP) TC intensity prediction model. The model was trained using the global Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) predictors to forecast the change in TC maximum wind speed for the Atlantic basin. In the first experiment, a 24-h forecast period was considered. To overcome sample size limitations, we adopted a leave one year out (LOYO) testing scheme, where a model is trained using data from all years except one and then evaluated on the year that is left out. When tested on 2010–18 operational data using the LOYO scheme, the MLP outperformed other statistical–dynamical models by 9%–20%. Additional independent tests in 2019 and 2020 were conducted to simulate real-time operational forecasts, where the MLP model again outperformed the statistical–dynamical models by 5%–22% and achieved comparable results as HWFI. The MLP model also correctly predicted more rapid intensification events than all the four operational TC intensity models compared. In the second experiment, we developed a lightweight MLP for 6-h intensity predictions. When coupled with a synthetic TC track model, the lightweight MLP generated realistic TC intensity distribution in the Atlantic basin. Therefore, the MLP-based approach has the potential to improve operational TC intensity forecasts, and will also be a viable option for generating synthetic TCs for climate studies.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Enhancing segmentation fairness through curriculum learning and progressive loss: a centralized and federated perspective on radiograph analysis

Bias in medical image segmentation can lead to unequal performance across demographic subgroups, raising concerns about fairness and reliability in clinical AI systems. While deep learning models have achieved high segmentation accuracy, ensuring equitable performance across race and gender remains a significant challenge, particularly in privacy-sensitive healthcare environments. This study investigates fairness-aware medical image segmentation for hip and knee radiographs using deep learning models evaluated in both centralized and Federated Learning (FL) settings. We introduce Curriculum Learning (CL) strategies and Progressive Loss (PL) functions to regulate sample difficulty during training. In addition, we propose two novel fairness-oriented federated learning algorithms, Federated Intersection over Union (FedIoU) and Federated Intersection over Union with Outlier Analysis (FedIoUoutlier). Experiments are conducted using multiple segmentation backbones and simulated multi-site data partitions derived from the Osteoarthritis Initiative dataset. Model performance is evaluated using Intersection over Union (IoU), IoU standard deviation, Skewed Error Ratio (SER), and Min-Max Disparity across race and gender subgroups. Statistical significance was verified using paired t-tests to compare per-sample IoU performance against baseline configurations. Across both hip and knee segmentation tasks, curriculum learning and progressive loss strategies consistently improved segmentation accuracy and reduced demographic performance disparities in centralized training. In federated settings, fairness-aware aggregation further enhanced performance. Notably, FedIoUoutlier combined with balanced curriculum learning and tiered progressive loss achieved the highest mean IoU while yielding the lowest SER and Min-Max Disparity, indicating improved fairness without sacrificing accuracy. In several configurations, federated models matched or exceeded the performance of optimized centralized models, with statistically significant improvements in per-sample IoU over baseline configurations. The results demonstrate that structured training strategies and fairness-aware federated aggregation can jointly improve accuracy, stability, and demographic fairness in medical image segmentation. By integrating curriculum learning, progressive loss, and novel FL algorithms, this work provides a practical pathway toward equitable and privacy-preserving AI systems for medical imaging.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Statistical moments of VIIRS night-time lights

Annual VIIRS global night-time lights traditionally report mean radiance levels after filtering to remove moonlit and cloudy data followed by outlier removal. The mean is the first statistical moment, but there are three other statistical moments (variance, skew and kurtosis) that are currently not produced globally. In this study, we generated VIIRS day/night band multiyear and annual statistical moments for a widely dispersed set of test areas. The moments were calculated from 15 arc second nightly temporal profiles spanning 2012-2020, filtered to exclude cloudy and sunlit data, with radiance adjustments to reduce view angle and lunar illuminance effects. The moment data were examined in two ways: (1) Geospatial grids-which reveal zonation and temporal changes present in urban areas and (2) Scattergrams of moment pairs. The variance versus mean scattergram exhibits several distinct data clusters used to define five zones: core lighting, dark-erratics, mid-erratics, bright-erratics and bright and seteady. The results indicate that the information content of VIIRS night-time lights can be augmented if all four statistical moments are calculated.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Criticality analysis of nuclear binding energy neural networks

Machine learning methods, in particular deep learning methods such as artificial neural networks (ANNs) with many layers, have become widespread and useful tools in nuclear physics. However, these ANNs are typically treated as ‘black boxes’, with their architecture (width, depth, and weight/bias initialization) and the training algorithm and parameters chosen empirically by optimizing learning based on limited exploration. We test a non-empirical approach to understanding and optimizing nuclear physics ANNs by adapting a criticality analysis based on renormalization group flows in terms of the hyperparameters for weight/bias initialization, training rates, and the ratio of depth to width. This treatment utilizes the statistical properties of neural network initialization to find a generating functional for network outputs at any layer, allowing for a path integral formulation of the ANN outputs as a Euclidean statistical field theory. We use a prototypical example to test the applicability of this approach: a simple ANN for nuclear binding energies. We find that with training using a stochastic gradient descent optimizer, the predicted criticality behavior is realized, and optimal performance is found with critical tuning. However, the use of an adaptive learning algorithm leads to somewhat superior results without concern for tuning and thus obscures the analysis. Nevertheless, the criticality analysis offers a way to look within the black box of ANNs, which is a first step towards potential improvements in network performance beyond using adaptive optimizers.

artificial neural network↗
DOE OSTI2020

A statistical model to predict ignition probability

Ignition capability is a critical design constraint for aeronautical gas turbines. However the current trend toward overall lean burn is detrimental to the engine ignition and relight and the ignition system must be adapted to ensure a fast and reliable light-round in all circumstances. As ignition is a stochastic phenomenon, the optimization of an ignition system requires to build ignition probability maps, which is difficult and costly with either experiment or numerical simulation as both require many tests. Here, this work proposes a model to predict the ignition probability map, knowing only flow statistics in non-reacting conditions, i.e., with only one test. The originality of the model is to construct statistics of the flame kernel trajectory, which are then combined with local flow indicators to evaluate the ignition probability at the considered sparking location. Application to a swirled burner operated in premixed, non-premixed and spray combustion modes illustrates the model concepts and demonstrates its ability to recover the experimental ignition map with good accuracy.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Statistical Modeling of Peak Accelerating Gradients in LCLS-II and LCLS-II-HE

In this report, we study the vertical test gradient performance and the gradient degradation between vertical test and cryomodule test for the 1.3 GHz LCLS-II cavities. We develop a model of peak gradient statistics, and use our understanding of the LCLS-II results and the changes implemented for LCLS-II-HE to estimate the expected gradient statistics for the new machine. Finally, we lay out a plan to ensure that the LCLS-II-HE cryomodule gradient specifications are met while minimizing cavity disqualification by introducing a variable acceptance threshold for the accelerating gradient.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2020

On the statistical treatment of the Cabibbo angle anomaly

We point out that testing the equality of the Cabibbo angle as extracted from $\Gamma(K\rightarrow \pi l\nu)$, the ratio $\Gamma(K\rightarrow l\nu)/\Gamma(\pi\rightarrow l\nu)$ and nuclear $\beta$ decays is not identical to a test of first row unitarity of the Cabibbo-Kobayashi-Maskawa (CKM) matrix. The reason is that a CKM unitarity test involves only two parameters, while the degrees of freedom for the assessment of the goodness-of-fit of the universality of the Cabibbo angle entailed by the Standard Model (SM) is equal to the number of measurements minus one. Beyond the SM all different processes could in principle give different Cabibbo angles. Consequently, the difference between the two tests becomes relevant starting from three observables giving results for the Cabibbo angle that are in tension with each other. With current data, depending on the treatment of the nuclear $\beta$ decays, we find that New Physics is favored over the SM at $5.1\,\sigma$ or $3.6\,\sigma$ while CKM unitarity is rejected at $4.8\sigma$ or $3.0\sigma$, respectively. We argue that the best method to test the SM is to test the equality of the Cabibbo angle, because CKM unitarity is only one aspect of the SM.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗