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Future Air Traffic Growth and Schedule Model User's Guide

The Future Air Traffic Growth and Schedule Model was developed as an implementation of the Fratar algorithm to project future traffic flow between airports in a system and of then scheduling the additional flights to reflect current passenger time-of-travel preferences. The methodology produces an unconstrained future schedule from a current (or baseline) schedule and the airport operations growth rates. As an example of the use of the model, future schedules are projected for 2010 and 2022 for all flights arriving at, departing from, or flying between all continental United States airports that had commercial scheduled service for May 17, 2002. Inter-continental US traffic and airports are included and the traffic is also grown with the Fratar methodology to account for their arrivals and departures to the continental US airports. Input data sets derived from the Official Airline Guide (OAG) data and FAA Terminal Area Forecast (TAF) are included in the examples of the computer code execution.

Kimmel, William M.↗

Future Air Traffic Growth and Schedule Model, Supplement

The Future Air Traffic Growth and Schedule Model was developed as an implementation of the Fratar algorithm to project future traffic flow between airports in a system and of then scheduling the additional flights to reflect current passenger time-of-travel preferences. The methodology produces an unconstrained future schedule from a current (or baseline) schedule and the airport operations growth rates. As an example of the use of the model, future schedules are projected for 2010 and 2022 for all flights arriving at, departing from, or flying between all continental United States airports that had commercial scheduled service for May 17, 2002. Inter-continental US traffic and airports are included and the traffic is also grown with the Fratar methodology to account for their arrivals and departures to the continental US airports. Input data sets derived from the Official Airline Guide (OAG) data and FAA Terminal Area Forecast (TAF) are included in the examples of the computer code execution.

Kimmel, William M.↗

A Vision of the Future Air Traffic Control System

The air transportation system is on the verge of gridlock, with delays and cancelled flights this summer reaching all time highs. As demand for air transportation continues to increase, the capacity needed to accommodate the growth in traffic is falling farther and farther behind. Moreover, it has become increasingly apparent that the present system cannot be scaled up to provide the capacity increases needed to meet demand over the next 25 years. NASA, working with the Federal Aviation Administration and industry, is pursuing a major research program to develop air traffic management technologies that have the ultimate goal of doubling capacity while increasing safety and efficiency. This seminar will describe how the current system operates, what its limitations are and why a revolutionary "shift in paradigm" is needed to overcome fundamental limitations in capacity and safety. For the near term, NASA has developed a portfolio of software tools for air traffic controllers, called the Center-TRACON Automation System (CTAS), that provides modest gains in capacity and efficiency while staying within the current paradigm. The outline of a concept for the long term, with a deployment date of 2015 at the earliest, has recently been formulated and presented by NASA to a select group of industry and government stakeholders. Automated decision making software, combined with an Internet in the sky that enables sharing of information and distributes control between the cockpit and the ground, is key to this concept. However, its most revolutionary feature is a fundamental change in the roles and responsibilities assigned to air traffic controllers.

Erzberger, Heinz↗

Properties of Air Traffic Conflicts for Free and Structured Routing

This paper analyzes the properties of air traffic conflicts in a future free routing system against those in the current structured routing system. Simulation of en route air traffic operations (above 18,000 ft) over the contiguous United States for a 24-hour period, constructed with initial conditions from actual air traffic data, were conducted using the Future ATM Concepts Evaluation Tool (FACET). Free routes were modeled as great circle (direct) routes from origin to destination, and structured routes were derived from actual flight plans along the current system of air routes. The conflict properties analyzed in this study include: (1) Total number of conflicts; (2) Distributions of key conflict parameters; and, (3) Categorization of conflicts into independent conflicts and two types of interacting conflicts. Preliminary results (for Denver Center traffic) indicate that conflict properties in a free routing system are different from those in the current structured routing system. In particular, a free routing system has significantly fewer conflicts, involving a correspondingly smaller number of aircraft, compared to the current structured routing system. Additionally, the conflict parameter distributions indicate that free routing conflicts are less intrusive than structured routing conflicts, and would therefore require small trajectory deviations for resolution.

Bilimoria, Karl D.↗

Transforming the NAS: The Next Generation Air Traffic Control System

The next-generation air traffic control system must be designed to safely and efficiently accommodate the large growth of traffic expected in the near future. It should be sufficiently scalable to contend with the factor of 2 or more increase in demand expected by the year 2020. Analysis has shown that the current method of controlling air traffic cannot be scaled up to provide such levels of capacity. Therefore, to achieve a large increase in capacity while also giving pilots increased freedom to optimize their flight trajectories requires a fundamental change in the way air traffic is controlled. The key to achieving a factor of 2 or more increase in airspace capacity is to automate separation monitoring and control and to use an air-ground data link to send trajectories and clearances directly between ground-based and airborne systems. In addition to increasing capacity and offering greater flexibility in the selection of trajectories, this approach also has the potential to increase safety by reducing controller and pilot errors that occur in routine monitoring and voice communication tasks.

Erzberger, Heinz↗

The Effects of the Uncertainty of Departures on Multi-Center Traffic Management Advisor (TMA) Scheduling

The Multi-center Traffic Management Advisor (McTMA) provides a platform for regional or national traffic flow management, by allowing long-range cooperative time-based metering to constrained resources, such as airports or air traffic control center boundaries. Part of the demand for resources is made up of proposed departures, whose actual departure time is difficult to predict. For this reason, McTMA does not schedule the departures in advance, but rather relies on traffic managers to input their requested departure time. Because this happens only a short while before the aircraft's actual departure, McTMA is unable to accurately predict the amount of delay airborne aircraft will need to take in order to accommodate the departures. The proportion of demand which is made up by such proposed departures increases as the horizon over which metering occurs gets larger. This study provides an initial analysis of the severity of this problem in a 400-500 nautical mile metering horizon and discusses potential solutions to accommodate these departures. The challenge is to smoothly incorporate departures with the airborne stream while not excessively delaying the departures.' In particular, three solutions are reviewed: (1) scheduling the departures at their proposed departure time; (2) not scheduling the departures in advance; and (3) scheduling the departures at some time in the future based on an estimated error in their proposed time. The first solution is to have McTMA to automatically schedule the departures at their proposed departure times. Since the proposed departure times are indicated in their flight times in advance, this method is the simplest, but studies have shown that these proposed times are often incorrect2 The second option is the current practice, which avoids these inaccuracies by only scheduling aircraft when a confirmed prediction of departure time is obtained from the tower of the departure airport. Lastly, McTMA can schedule the departures at a predicted departure time based on statistical data of past departure time performance. It has been found that departures usually have a wheels-up time after their indicated proposed departure time, as shown in Figure 1. Hence, the departures were scheduled at a time in the future based on the mean error in proposed departure times for their airport.

Thipphavong, Jane↗

Agent Reward Shaping for Alleviating Traffic Congestion

Traffic congestion problems provide a unique environment to study how multi-agent systems promote desired system level behavior. What is particularly interesting in this class of problems is that no individual action is intrinsically "bad" for the system but that combinations of actions among agents lead to undesirable outcomes, As a consequence, agents need to learn how to coordinate their actions with those of other agents, rather than learn a particular set of "good" actions. This problem is ubiquitous in various traffic problems, including selecting departure times for commuters, routes for airlines, and paths for data routers. In this paper we present a multi-agent approach to two traffic problems, where far each driver, an agent selects the most suitable action using reinforcement learning. The agent rewards are based on concepts from collectives and aim to provide the agents with rewards that are both easy to learn and that if learned, lead to good system level behavior. In the first problem, we study how agents learn the best departure times of drivers in a daily commuting environment and how following those departure times alleviates congestion. In the second problem, we study how agents learn to select desirable routes to improve traffic flow and minimize delays for. all drivers.. In both sets of experiments,. agents using collective-based rewards produced near optimal performance (93-96% of optimal) whereas agents using system rewards (63-68%) barely outperformed random action selection (62-64%) and agents using local rewards (48-72%) performed worse than random in some instances.

Tumer, Kagan↗

Inside the Mechanics of Network Development: How Competition and Strategy Reorganize European Air Traffic

Air transport forms complex networks that can be measured in order to understand its structural characteristics and functional properties. Recent models for network growth (i.e., preferential attachment, etc.) remain stochastic and do not seek to understand other network-specific mechanisms that may account for their development in a more microscopic way. Air traffic is made up of many constituent airlines that are either privately or publicly owned and that operate their own networks. They follow more or less similar business policies each. The way these airline networks organize among themselves into distinct traffic distributions reveals complex interaction among them, which in turn can be aggregated into larger (macro-) traffic distributions. Our approach allows for a more deterministic methodology that will assess the impact of airline strategies on the distinct distributions for air traffic, particularly inside Europe. One key question this paper is seeking to answer is whether there are distinct patterns of preferential attachment for given classes of airline networks to distinct types of European airports. Conclusions about the advancing degree of concentration in this industry and the airline operators that accelerate this process can be drawn.

Huber, Hans↗

A Distributed Trajectory-Oriented Approach to Managing Traffic Complexity

In order to handle the expected increase in air traffic volume, the next generation air transportation system is moving towards a distributed control architecture, in which ground-based service providers such as controllers and traffic managers and air-based users such as pilots share responsibility for aircraft trajectory generation and management. While its architecture becomes more distributed, the goal of the Air Traffic Management (ATM) system remains to achieve objectives such as maintaining safety and efficiency. It is, therefore, critical to design appropriate control elements to ensure that aircraft and groundbased actions result in achieving these objectives without unduly restricting user-preferred trajectories. This paper presents a trajectory-oriented approach containing two such elements. One is a trajectory flexibility preservation function, by which aircraft plan their trajectories to preserve flexibility to accommodate unforeseen events. And the other is a trajectory constraint minimization function by which ground-based agents, in collaboration with air-based agents, impose just-enough restrictions on trajectories to achieve ATM objectives, such as separation assurance and flow management. The underlying hypothesis is that preserving trajectory flexibility of each individual aircraft naturally achieves the aggregate objective of avoiding excessive traffic complexity, and that trajectory flexibility is increased by minimizing constraints without jeopardizing the intended ATM objectives. The paper presents conceptually how the two functions operate in a distributed control architecture that includes self separation. The paper illustrates the concept through hypothetical scenarios involving conflict resolution and flow management. It presents a functional analysis of the interaction and information flow between the functions. It also presents an analytical framework for defining metrics and developing methods to preserve trajectory flexibility and minimize its constraints. In this framework flexibility is defined in terms of robustness and adaptability to disturbances and the impact of constraints is illustrated through analysis of a trajectory solution space with limited degrees of freedom and in simple constraint situations involving meeting multiple times of arrival and resolving a conflict.

Idris, Husni↗

Situational Leadership in Air Traffic Control

In high-risk environments such as air traffic control, leadership on different levels plays a certain role in establishing, promoting, and maintaining a good safety culture. The current study aimed to investigate how leadership styles, leadership style adaptability, and over and under task leadership behavior differed across situations, operative conditions, leadership structures, and working tasks in an air traffic control setting. Study locations were two air traffic control centers in Sweden with different operational conditions and leadership structures, and an administrative air traffic management unit. Leadership was measured with a questionnaire based on Leader Effectiveness and Adaptability Description (LEAD; Blanchard, Zigarmi & Zigarmi, 2003; Hersey & Blanchard, 1988). The results showed that the situation had strong impact on the leadership in which the leadership behavior was more relationship oriented in Success and Group situations than in Hardship and Individual situations. The leadership adaptability was further superior in Success and Individual situations compared with Hardship and Group situations. Operational conditions, leadership structures and working tasks were, on the other hand, not associated with leadership behavior.

Arvidsson, Marcus↗

Delay Banking for Managing Air Traffic

Delay banking has been invented to enhance air-traffic management in a way that would increase the degree of fairness in assigning arrival, departure, and en-route delays and trajectory deviations to aircraft impacted by congestion in the national airspace system. In delay banking, an aircraft operator (airline, military, general aviation, etc.) would be assigned a numerical credit when any of their flights are delayed because of an air-traffic flow restriction. The operator could subsequently bid against other operators competing for access to congested airspace to utilize part or all of its accumulated credit. Operators utilize credits to obtain higher priority for the same flight, or other flights operating at the same time, or later, in the same airspace, or elsewhere. Operators could also trade delay credits, according to market rules that would be determined by stakeholders in the national airspace system. Delay banking would be administered by an independent third party who would use delay banking automation to continually monitor flights, allocate delay credits, maintain accounts of delay credits for participating airlines, mediate bidding and the consumption of credits of winning bidders, analyze potential transfers of credits within and between operators, implement accepted transfers, and ensure fair treatment of all participating operators. A flow restriction can manifest itself in the form of a delay in assigned takeoff time, a reduction in assigned airspeed, a change in the position for the aircraft in a queue of all aircraft in a common stream of traffic (e.g., similar route), a change in the planned altitude profile for an aircraft, or change in the planned route for the aircraft. Flow restrictions are typically imposed to mitigate traffic congestion at an airport or in a region of airspace, particularly congestion due to inclement weather, or the unavailability of a runway or region of airspace. A delay credit would be allocated to an operator of a flight that has accepted, or upon which was imposed, a flow restriction. The amount of the credit would increase with the amount of delay caused by the flow restriction, the exact amount depending on which of several candidate formulas is eventually chosen. For example, according to one formula, there would be no credit for a delay smaller than some threshold value (e.g., 30 seconds) and the amount of the credit for a longer delay would be set at the amount of the delay minus the threshold value. Optionally, the value of a delay credit could be made to decay with time according to a suitable formula (e.g., an exponential decay). Also, optionally, a transaction charge could be assessed against the value of a delay credit that an operator used on a flight different from the one for which the delay originated or that was traded with a different operator. The delay credits accumulated by a given airline could be utilized in various ways. For example, an operator could enter a bid for priority handling in a new flow restriction that impacts one or more of the operator s flights; if the bid were unsuccessful, all or a portion of the credit would be returned to the bidder. If the bid pertained to a single aircraft that was in a queue, delay credits could be consumed in moving the aircraft to an earlier position within the queue. In the case of a flow restriction involving a choice of alternate routes, planned altitude profile, aircraft spacing, or other non-queue flow restrictions, delay credits could be used to bid for an alternative assignment.

Green, Steve↗

Data-Link and Surface Map Traffic Intent Displays for NextGen 4DT and Equivalent Visual Surface Operations

By 2025, U.S. air traffic is predicted to increase 3-fold and may strain the current air traffic management system, which may not be able to accommodate this growth. In response to this challenge, a consortium of industry, academia and government agencies have proposed a revolutionary new concept for U.S. aviation operations, termed the Next Generation Air Transportation System or "NextGen". Many key capabilities are being identified to enable NextGen, including the concept of "net-centric" operations whereby each aircraft and air services provider shares information to allow real-time adaptability to ever-changing factors such as weather, traffic, flight trajectories, and security. Data-link is likely to be the primary source of communication in NextGen. Because NextGen represents a radically different approach to air traffic management and requires a dramatic shift in the tasks, roles, and responsibilities for the flight deck, there are numerous research issues and challenges that must be overcome to ensure a safe, sustainable air transportation system. Flight deck display and crew-vehicle interaction concepts are being developed that proactively investigate and overcome potential technology and safety barriers that might otherwise constrain the full realization of NextGen.

Shelton, Kevin J.↗

Effects of Automation Types on Air Traffic Controller Situation Awareness and Performance

The Joint Planning and Development Office has proposed the introduction of automated systems to help air traffic controllers handle the increasing volume of air traffic in the next two decades (JPDO, 2007). Because fully automated systems leave operators out of the decision-making loop (e.g., Billings, 1991), it is important to determine the right level and type of automation that will keep air traffic controllers in the loop. This study examined the differences in the situation awareness (SA) and collision detection performance of individuals when they worked with information acquisition, information analysis, decision and action selection and action implementation automation to control air traffic (Parasuraman, Sheridan, & Wickens, 2000). When the automation was unreliable, the time taken to detect an upcoming collision was significantly longer for all the automation types compared with the information acquisition automation. This poor performance following automation failure was mediated by SA, with lower SA yielding poor performance. Thus, the costs associated with automation failure are greater when automation is applied to higher order stages of information processing. Results have practical implications for automation design and development of SA training programs.

Sethumadhavan, A.↗

The Monotonic Lagrangian Grid for Rapid Air-Traffic Evaluation

The Air Traffic Monotonic Lagrangian Grid (ATMLG) is presented as a tool to evaluate new air traffic system concepts. The model, based on an algorithm called the Monotonic Lagrangian Grid (MLG), can quickly sort, track, and update positions of many aircraft, both on the ground (at airports) and in the air. The underlying data structure is based on the MLG, which is used for sorting and ordering positions and other data needed to describe N moving bodies and their interactions. Aircraft that are close to each other in physical space are always near neighbors in the MLG data arrays, resulting in a fast nearest-neighbor interaction algorithm that scales as N. Recent upgrades to ATMLG include adding blank place-holders within the MLG data structure, which makes it possible to dynamically change the MLG size and also improves the quality of the MLG grid. Additional upgrades include adding FAA flight plan data, such as way-points and arrival and departure times from the Enhanced Traffic Management System (ETMS), and combining the MLG with the state-of-the-art strategic and tactical conflict detection and resolution algorithms from the NASA-developed Stratway software. In this paper, we present results from our early efforts to couple ATMLG with the Stratway software, and we demonstrate that it can be used to quickly simulate air traffic flow for a very large ETMS dataset.

Kaplan, Carolyn↗

Expanding Regional Airport Usage to Accommodate Increased Air Traffic Demand

Small regional airports present an underutilized source of capacity in the national air transportation system. This study sought to determine whether a 50 percent increase in national operations could be achieved by limiting demand growth at large hub airports and instead growing traffic levels at the surrounding regional airports. This demand scenario for future air traffic in the United States was generated and used as input to a 24-hour simulation of the national airspace system. Results of the demand generation process and metrics predicting the simulation results are presented, in addition to the actual simulation results. The demand generation process showed that sufficient runway capacity exists at regional airports to offload a significant portion of traffic from hub airports. Predictive metrics forecast a large reduction of delays at most major airports when demand is shifted. The simulation results then show that offloading hub traffic can significantly reduce nationwide delays.

Russell, Carl R.↗

Integrated Traffic Flow Management Decision Making

A generalized approach is proposed to support integrated traffic flow management decision making studies at both the U.S. national and regional levels. It can consider tradeoffs between alternative optimization and heuristic based models, strategic versus tactical flight controls, and system versus fleet preferences. Preliminary testing was accomplished by implementing thirteen unique traffic flow management models, which included all of the key components of the system and conducting 85, six-hour fast-time simulation experiments. These experiments considered variations in the strategic planning look-ahead times, the replanning intervals, and the types of traffic flow management control strategies. Initial testing indicates that longer strategic planning look-ahead times and re-planning intervals result in steadily decreasing levels of sector congestion for a fixed delay level. This applies when accurate estimates of the air traffic demand, airport capacities and airspace capacities are available. In general, the distribution of the delays amongst the users was found to be most equitable when scheduling flights using a heuristic scheduling algorithm, such as ration-by-distance. On the other hand, equity was the worst when using scheduling algorithms that took into account the number of seats aboard each flight. Though the scheduling algorithms were effective at alleviating sector congestion, the tactical rerouting algorithm was the primary control for avoiding en route weather hazards. Finally, the modeled levels of sector congestion, the number of weather incursions, and the total system delays, were found to be in fair agreement with the values that were operationally observed on both good and bad weather days.

Grabbe, Shon R.↗

Interaction Between Strategic and Local Traffic Flow Controls

The loosely coordinated sets of traffic flow management initiatives that are operationally implemented at the national- and local-levels have the potential to under, over, and inconsistently control flights. This study is designed to explore these interactions through fast-time simulations with an emphasis on identifying inequitable situations in which flights receive multiple uncoordinated delays. Two operationally derived scenarios were considered in which flights arriving into the Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport were first controlled at the national-level, either with a Ground Delay Program or a playbook reroute. These flights were subsequently controlled at the local level. The Traffic Management Advisor assigned them arrival scheduling delays. For the Ground Delay Program scenarios, between 51% and 53% of all arrivals experience both pre-departure delays from the Ground Delay Program and arrival scheduling delays from the Traffic Management Advisor. Of the subset of flights that received multiple delays, between 5.7% and 6.4% of the internal departures were first assigned a pre-departure delay by the Ground Delay Program, followed by a second pre-departure delay as a result of the arrival scheduling. For the playbook reroute scenario, Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport arrivals were first assigned pre-departure reroutes based on the MW_2_DALLAS playbook plan, and were subsequently assigned arrival scheduling delays by the Traffic Management Advisor. Since the airport was operating well below capacity when the playbook reroute was in effect, only 7% of the arrivals were observed to receive both rerouting and arrival scheduling delays. Findings from these initial experiments confirm field observations that Ground Delay Programs operated in conjunction with arrival scheduling can result in inequitable situations in which flights receive multiple uncoordinated delays.

Grabbe, Son↗

Factors Influencing the Decisions and Actions of Pilots and Air Traffic Controllers in Three Plausible NextGen Environments

In the current air traffic management (ATM) system, pilots and air traffic controllers have well-established roles and responsibilities: pilots fly aircraft and are concerned with energy management, fuel efficiency, and passenger comfort; controllers separate aircraft and are concerned with safety and management of traffic flows. Despite having different goals and obligations, both groups must be able to effectively communicate and interact with each other for the ATM system to work. This interaction will become even more challenging as traffic volume increases dramatically in the near future. To accommodate this increase, by 2025 the national air transportation system in the U.S. will go through a transformation that will modernize the ATM system and make it safer, more effective, and more efficient. This new system, NextGen, will change how pilots and controllers perform their tasks by incorporating advanced technologies and employing new procedures. It will also distribute responsibility between pilots, controllers and automation over such tasks as maintaining aircraft separation. The present chapter describes three plausible concepts of operations that allocate different ATM responsibilities to these groups. We describe how each concept changes the role of each operator and the types of decisions and actions performed by them.

Vu, Kim-Phuong L.↗