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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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DOE OSTI2023

Toward perturbation theory methods on a quantum computer

Perturbation theory, used in a wide range of fields, is a powerful tool for approximate solutions to complex problems, starting from the exact solution of a related, simpler problem. Advances in quantum computing, especially over the past several years, provide opportunities for alternatives to classical methods. Here, we present a general quantum circuit estimating both the energy and eigenstates corrections that is far superior to the classical version when estimating second-order energy corrections. We demonstrate our approach as applied to the two-site extended Hubbard model. In addition to numerical simulations based on qiskit, results on IBM’s quantum hardware are also presented. Our work offers a general approach to studying complex systems with quantum devices, with no training or optimization process needed to obtain the perturbative terms, which can be generalized to other Hamiltonian systems both in chemistry and physics.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

ELM-Wet: Inclusion of a wetland landunit with sub-grid representation of eco-hydrological patches and hydrological forcing in E3SM Land Model (ELM)

Wetlands emit the most biogenic methane (CH4) and present the greatest uncertainty in the global CH4 budget. Modeling these emissions is challenging due to the temporal and spatial variability in wetland structure and CH4 flux rates, along with complex interactions among hydrological, ecological, meteorological, and microbial processes that govern CH4 dynamics. To address these issues, we aim to enhance the accuracy of wetland representation in the U.S. Department of Energy’s Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Land Model, ELM. This effort led to the development of ELM-Wet, which incorporates a dedicated wetland landunit with subgrid representation of eco-hydrological patch types. We implement wetland-specific hydrology by imposing site-specific constraints on surface water levels, thereby allowing different patches to sustain varying depths of inundation. Additionally, we refined the calculation of aerenchyma transport diffusivity based on observed conductance across different vegetation types. We validated these enhancements through site-specific simulations of a coastal freshwater wetland, the Salvador WMA Freshwater Marsh (Ameriflux, site ID US-LA2), located in the coast of Louisiana (29.85N,90.29W) at an elevation of 0 m. The site was simulated with ELM-Wet and the default version ELMv1. We use Bayesian Optimization to parameterize CO2 and CH4 fluxes. Eddy covariance observations of CO2 and CH4 fluxes from 2012-2013 were used to train the model and data from 2021 were used for validation. In this repository, we include all the output of all the simulations performed using different versions of ELMv1 and ELM-Wet, all input required to the model, and the Matlab scripts we used to processed the output data. ELM-Wet_flmd.csv includes a detailed description of the datasets files.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Underwater Target Detection Software Demonstration on the RivGen Turbine

This repository contains data and processing scripts necessary to train the object detection models utilized in the underwater target detection software demonstration on the RivGen turbine project and to produce performance metrics (precision, recall, mAP50, mAP50-95). - Contents - Data consist of "images" and "labels". Each image has an associated label, both share the same time string in its file name (e.g., 2024_05_25_09_01_57.98.jpg and 2024_05_25_09_01_57.98.txt). Time strings have the format %yyyy_%mm_%dd_%HH_%MM_%SS.%3f. Images and labels were curated from 2021 and 2024 smolt outmigration periods at the project site in Igiugig, AK. Images are monochrome 8-bit images of objects (smolt, debris, and other) passing through the field of view of the deployed cameras during various operational stages of the RivGen turbine. Labels are text files indicating the class and bounding polygon of each object in an image. The provided labels use the "YOLO" label format. - Requirements - Python3.8+ is required to install and run the train and validation script. The README.md provides instruction for installing the requirements from the requirements.py file. - Instructions - The "example_train.py" file ingests the provided data, trains a model, and produces model performance metrics at completion. NOTE: model performance metrics will vary from run to run as a consequence of the random selection of training and validation data.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2022

Exploring Structure-Sensitive Relations for Small Species Adsorption Using Machine Learning

Accurate prediction of adsorption energies on heterogeneous catalyst surfaces is crucial to predicting reactivity and screening materials. Adsorption linear scaling relations have been developed extensively but often lack accuracy and apply to one adsorbate and a single binding site type at a time. These facts undermine their ability to predict structure sensitivity and optimal catalyst structure. Using machine learning on nearly 300 density functional theory calculations, we demonstrate that generalized coordination number scaling relations hold well for oxygen- and high-valency carbon-binding species but fail for others. Here we reveal that the valency and the electronic coupling of a species with the surface, along with the site type and its coordination environment, are critical for small species adsorption. The model simultaneously predicts the adsorption energy and preferred site and significantly outperforms linear scalings in accuracy. It can expose the structure sensitivity of chemical reactions and enable enhanced catalyst activity via engineering particle shape and facet defects. The generality of our methodology is validated by training the model with transition metal data and transferring it to predict adsorption energies on single-atom alloys.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2019

Integrated Solutions for Optimized Performance (ISOP) Final Technical Report

The goal of this project was to demonstrate technical feasibility of an integrated approach for deep energy retrofits by packaging innovative technologies with smart communicating controls that represent the next generation of energy efficiency. The integrated solutions for optimized performance (ISOP) package integrates (i) advanced lighting and plug load controls; (ii) intelligent daylight harvesting through automated self-powered shades and window films; (iii) advanced HVAC controls sequences (ASHRAE Guideline (GDL) 36); and (iv) fault detection and diagnosis (FDD) and continuous commissioning (CCx) using advanced analytics. These technologies address energy use across multiple building end uses that represent more than 60% of the energy consumption in all commercial buildings. The project was structured to be implemented over three budget periods: Budget Period 1 scope included site selection, project design, site-specific customization of technology packages, procurement of technologies, initiation of installation of technologies, the development of a measurement and verification plan and collection of pre-retrofit data collection. The first year go/no-go decision was based on securing host sites representing 250,000 sq. ft. of occupied operational spaces, savings analysis, technology procurement and initiation of installation. Budget Period 2 planned to complete technology installations and initiate data collection of post-retrofit performance data. The second year go/no-go was to be the completion of technology installations and commissioning, metering and data collecting to support the requirements laid out in site specific M&V plans. Budget Period 3 planned to collect and analyze post-retrofit performance data and provide data and reporting to support energy efficiency rebate programs. After the team completed activities planned for Budget Period 1, the team reached a Go/No-Go Decision Point. At that point, TRC recommended that DOE discontinue the project without prejudice due to challenges with securing demonstration sites to meet the full 250,000 sf of occupied operational spaces and DOE concurred. In Budget Period 1, the TRC team developed criteria to recruit and evaluate potential demonstration host sites. TRC worked with Princeton University, the project demonstration partner, to identify buildings on their campus as potential candidates for the demonstration. Following the selection of demonstration sites, the TRC team customized energy technology packages according to the needs and characteristics of each site. TRC defined technology specifications, identified vendors, and conducted analysis to estimate energy and cost savings potential. The project team then developed schedules for technology procurement processes and scheduled for installation at all selected demonstration sites. The project team worked with Princeton University and DOE to develop an approach to verify energy savings achieved through measurement and verification (M&V) 2.0 methods. Princeton University initiated open bids to procure the necessary materials and installation contractors. Bid results came back higher than estimates due to a couple of factors – lack of familiarity of the bidders with the proposed technologies and lack of local trained installers to execute the installation of these new measures. Due to the higher bids, projects no longer met the internal cost-effectiveness criteria used by Princeton to proceed with procurement of the full suite of technologies as proposed in ISOP. Princeton had already procured parts of the ISOP package as part of a campus-wide initiative for FDD and lighting retrofits, but with the higher costs for other ISOP components, Princeton could no longer commit to the full ISOP package on the selected sites. Based on this, the team reached the Go/No-Go decision point, where they decided not to proceed with the project. Princeton is separately installing portions of the ISOP package where they individually meet Princeton’s payback criteria but on a different schedule than would have been needed for the DOE ISOP project. The team has learned several lessons from project progress in the first budget period. The team will utilize these lessons in future projects, as should any team which proceeds with a project around the ISOP technology. The first lesson is that more information about the proposed sites is required earlier in the process (perhaps even at the proposal stage) in order to have a successful demonstration. Technical details not evident earlier in the process (such as the TLED limitations for ALCS) can derail project execution. The second lesson is that pricing of emerging technologies is highly variable due to lack of familiarity of local installers and distributor with the proposed technologies as well as alternate bids using products they were more familiar with, but that cost more than the ones proposed by TRC. Finally, the last major lesson is that the host site’s internal project criteria is of critical importance. Based on these higher installed costs and lack of an informed installer base for the products proposed for this project, the project does not meet Princeton’s simple payback goals of five years.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

Developing Data-Driven Synthetic Infrastructure Models for Resilience Analysis

Research on infrastructure resilience has produced promising methods to simulate and optimize complex networks to improve performance. However, restrictions on sharing infrastructure models and the steep cost of developing and maintaining infrastructure models presents a roadblock to adoption. To overcome this limitation, this research focuses on methods to create data-driven infrastructure models that will help improve infrastructure resilience and security. The analysis couples incomplete utility data, geospatial data, machine learning, and synthetic network generation methods to rapidly develop and update infrastructure models. The methods are validated using realistic utility models and site-specific data, with a focus on Puerto Rico due to its unique infrastructure challenges and available data. This research highlights promising opportunities for the use of synthetic network generation and machine learning to create infrastructure models when very little data is available. Results demonstrate that hybrid methods, which combine sparse utility data with synthetic models, can enhance model accuracy, and machine learning can predict model attributes using training data from other models. However, the complexity of infrastructure systems means that even minor changes in network connectivity can significantly impact simulation results. Resilience analysis using synthetic infrastructure models shows that while some system behaviors are preserved, the magnitude of disruptions may not be accurately represented, indicating the need for more research and validation before using synthetic models for critical infrastructure investment decisions. The framework outlined in this report represents a significant advance to infrastructure model development and could be applied to additional domains and sites. Future research will continue to streamline and validate methods to help reduce roadblocks to resilience analysis.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Artificial neural networks estimate evapotranspiration for Miscanthus × giganteus as effectively as empirical model but with fewer inputs

Estimating actual evapotranspiration (ET) is particularly crucial for addressing how vegetation affects the water balance of ecosystems. ET estimation can be complex with empirical models due to their many parameters and reliance on aridity. In contrast, artificial neural networks (ANNs) could potentially estimate ET with fewer and more common meteorological parameters. In this study, we trained two ANNs, one using a feed-forward approach (FFN) and the other a nonlinear auto-regressive network (NARX), to predict ET and compared them to the commonly used empirical model Granger and Gray (GG). We trained our models on a nine-year eddy covariance (EC) dataset for Miscanthu s × giganteus ( M . × giganteus ) from Illinois (UIEF), then tested them using out-of-sample data from both UIEF and a different location in Iowa (SABR) to compare the accuracy of FFN, NARX, and GG models in estimating daily ET. A combination of air temperature (T a ) and solar radiation (R s ) was chosen as inputs due to the highest R 2 for FFN (R 2 = 0.79, 0.81, and 0.79 for training, testing, and validation, respectively) and only T a for NARX (R 2 = 0.70 for out-of-sample validation). The predictive power of the FFN model was superior to the NARX and GG models at the UIEF site (R 2 = 0.84, 0.70, and 0.83 for out-of-sample validation, respectively). Our analysis showed that ANN approaches are as accurate as empirical approaches for estimating ET but use fewer inputs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Prediction of organic homolytic bond dissociation enthalpies at near chemical accuracy with sub-second computational cost

Bond dissociation enthalpies (BDEs) of organic molecules play a fundamental role in determining chemical reactivity and selectivity. However, BDE computations at sufficiently high levels of quantum mechanical theory require substantial computing resources. In this paper, we develop a machine learning model capable of accurately predicting BDEs for organic molecules in a fraction of a second. We perform automated density functional theory (DFT) calculations at the M06-2X/def2-TZVP level of theory for 42,577 small organic molecules, resulting in 290,664 BDEs. A graph neural network trained on a subset of these results achieves a mean absolute error of 0.58 kcal mol-1 (vs DFT) for BDEs of unseen molecules. We further demonstrate the model on two applications: first, we rapidly and accurately predict major sites of hydrogen abstraction in the metabolism of drug-like molecules, and second, we determine the dominant molecular fragmentation pathways during soot formation.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

3D Deep Learning Joint Inversion of Active Seismic Full Waveform and Passive Seismic Traveltime Data for Reservoir Imaging and Uncertainty Quantification

Here, we present deep learning (DL) networks for three-dimensional (3D) joint inversion of active seismic full waveform and passive seismic traveltime data to image reservoirs and their properties and quantify imaging uncertainties. Active seismic full-waveform data can provide high-resolution monitoring images but are collected only intermittently because of their high acquisition cost. In contrast, passive seismic data can be gathered at relatively low cost between regular active surveys, although their imaging quality can be compromised by factors such as low signal-to-noise ratios and limited ray coverage of the target. Although these datasets are routinely acquired together at CO 2 storage sites, their combined inversion within a 3D DL framework has not been previously demonstrated. To our knowledge, this is the first study to address this gap, combining the strength of both data types. For efficient data storage and DL training with large 3D seismic datasets, we use a 3D data matrix in which a random number of passive seismic traveltime data are stored as parabolic envelopes using one-hot encoding and a 3D full-waveform data matrix in which multiple shot gathers are summed. Two network architectures are evaluated: a single-encoder U-Net for single-data type inversion and a dual-encoder U-Net for joint inversion of active and passive seismic data. We also evaluate the single-encoder U-Net for joint inversion by concatenating full-waveform data and traveltime data. We propose a systematic approach for selecting an optimal dropout rate that balances regularization during training and Monte Carlo dropout-based uncertainty quantification during prediction by examining the correlation coefficient between standard deviation and prediction error, along with the training misfit, across a range of dropout rates. 3D DL inversion experiments include five different network configurations, with evaluations under ideal, noisy and dropout-enabled conditions. Both model and data uncertainties are assessed, as well as their combined effects. Across all conditions, the networks consistently predict accurate CO 2 saturation models with low prediction errors, such as a structural similarity index of 0.993 and CO 2 difference of 1.1%. Uncertainty estimates show strong spatial correlation with prediction errors, confirming the effectiveness of the proposed dropout selection approach. The results demonstrate that our DL approach, utilizing compact data representations and appropriate uncertainty quantification, yields accurate subsurface images under various inversion conditions and provides valuable insights into the reliability of predictions.

Um, Evan Schankee [Lawrence Berkeley National Labo↗
DOE OSTI2026

Assessing shellfish water exposure to fecal bacteria pollution in Salish Sea: three-dimensional modeling and implications for monitoring

Fecal bacteria (FB) contamination poses significant risks to shellfish safety and management in coastal and estuarine waters. Despite extensive pollution identification and correction efforts, FB contamination in shellfish-growing areas persists in the Salish Sea, highlighting the need to identify overlooked sources and better understand FB transport from riverine and shoreline inputs to shellfish beds. To address this, a high-resolution three-dimensional hydrodynamic model coupled with FB kinetics was developed and applied to a case study site in Salish Sea—Portage Bay—to simulate freshwater plume circulation, flushing dynamics, and bacterial transport. Daily FB loading from the major freshwater inflow—Nooksack River was generated by both linear interpolation and integrating a machine learning approach (XGBoost), trained on historical hydrological and meteorological data. The model successfully reproduced both the magnitude and seasonal variation of FB concentrations in Portage Bay for the year of 2021, demonstrating that simplified FB kinetics with first-order decay due to mortality was effective in this dynamic coastal environment with short flushing time. Model results identified the Nooksack River as the dominant far-field FB source, while scenario simulations showed that near-field coastal stormwater outfalls elevated local FB levels following rainfall, particularly under low-flow conditions. The XGBoost prediction provided comparable or superior accuracy to linear interpolation, particularly during periods of missing observational data, by capturing short-term variability and event-driven loading more effectively. Integrating data-driven riverine FB inputs with mechanistic coastal numerical modeling provides a robust framework for operational forecasting of shellfish bed exposure risk and supports adaptive monitoring and management of shellfish growing areas in the Salish Sea and similar coastal systems.

Salish Sea↗
DOE OSTI2024

Fingerprinting Interactions between Proteins and Ligands for Facilitating Machine Learning in Drug Discovery

Molecular recognition is fundamental in biology, underpinning intricate processes through specific protein–ligand interactions. This understanding is pivotal in drug discovery, yet traditional experimental methods face limitations in exploring the vast chemical space. Computational approaches, notably quantitative structure–activity/property relationship analysis, have gained prominence. Molecular fingerprints encode molecular structures and serve as property profiles, which are essential in drug discovery. While two-dimensional (2D) fingerprints are commonly used, three-dimensional (3D) structural interaction fingerprints offer enhanced structural features specific to target proteins. Machine learning models trained on interaction fingerprints enable precise binding prediction. Recent focus has shifted to structure-based predictive modeling, with machine-learning scoring functions excelling due to feature engineering guided by key interactions. Notably, 3D interaction fingerprints are gaining ground due to their robustness. Various structural interaction fingerprints have been developed and used in drug discovery, each with unique capabilities. This review recapitulates the developed structural interaction fingerprints and provides two case studies to illustrate the power of interaction fingerprint-driven machine learning. The first elucidates structure–activity relationships in β2 adrenoceptor ligands, demonstrating the ability to differentiate agonists and antagonists. The second employs a retrosynthesis-based pre-trained molecular representation to predict protein–ligand dissociation rates, offering insights into binding kinetics. Despite remarkable progress, challenges persist in interpreting complex machine learning models built on 3D fingerprints, emphasizing the need for strategies to make predictions interpretable. Binding site plasticity and induced fit effects pose additional complexities. Interaction fingerprints are promising but require continued research to harness their full potential.

3D structural interaction fingerprints↗
DOE OSTI2021

On the estimation of boundary layer heights: a machine learning approach

Abstract. The planetary boundary layer height (zi) is a key parameter used in atmospheric models for estimating the exchange of heat, momentum, and moisture between the surface and the free troposphere. Near-surface atmospheric and subsurface properties (such as soil temperature, relative humidity, etc.) are known to have an impact on zi. Nevertheless, precise relationships between these surface properties and zi are less well known and not easily discernible from the multi-year dataset. Machine learning approaches, such as random forest (RF), which use a multi-regression framework, help to decipher some of the physical processes linking surface-based characteristics to zi. In this study, a 4-year dataset from 2016 to 2019 at the Southern Great Plains site is used to develop and test a machine learning framework for estimating zi. Parameters derived from Doppler lidars are used in combination with over 20 different surface meteorological measurements as inputs to a RF model. The model is trained using radiosonde-derived zi values spanning the period from 2016 through 2018 and then evaluated using data from 2019. Results from 2019 showed significantly better agreement with the radiosonde compared to estimates derived from a thresholding technique using Doppler lidars only. Noteworthy improvements in daytime zi estimates were observed using the RF model, with a 50 % improvement in mean absolute error and an R2 of greater than 85 % compared to the Tucker method zi. We also explore the effect of zi uncertainty on convective velocity scaling and present preliminary comparisons between the RF model and zi estimates derived from atmospheric models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

The TRANSCEND University Consortium: An Overview - 20106

The UK government is committed to nuclear energy having an important role in delivering a secure, low-carbon and affordable energy future. Projections indicate that between now and 2035, ∼14 GW of new nuclear generating capacity may be built. Successful delivery of this strategy recognises the need for research and development, skills development and international collaboration as key enablers. One key area is the decommissioning and clean-up of all civil nuclear licensed sites and the implementation of geological disposal of highly active wastes, with a central component being a joined-up approach to nuclear R and D across government, industry and academia which benefits the UK economy and ensures the security of supply. Essential to public acceptance of this strategy remains a demonstrable ability to safely manage and dispose of waste, with acceptance directly linked to having scientifically robust routes for its safe clean-up and disposal. There therefore remains an ongoing need for further research in the areas of decommissioning, immobilisation and management of nuclear waste, and there is significant government and stakeholder support for such research. Given the needs of both new nuclear power generation and legacy wastes, there is a requirement to develop innovative approaches to waste management and decommissioning. Following on from earlier, highly successful projects supported by UK Research and Innovation's Energy Programme, the work of the TRANSCEND (Transformative Science and Engineering for Nuclear Decommissioning) consortium is part of the response to these needs, providing support to a strong and internationally leading group of researchers in this key technology area. The consortium is a collaboration between 11 universities, supported by 8 key industry partners, with a total funding of UK Pounds 9.5 M from the UK Engineering and Physical Research Council, the universities and key project partners. The research being carried out is multidisciplinary and covers both fundamental and applied topics, with 40 research projects clustered in four technical themes: integrated waste management; site decommissioning and remediation; spent fuels; and nuclear materials. Key aims of the consortium are to extend and further develop a relevant academic skill base in the UK associated with the needs of nuclear waste management and decommissioning, to train the next generation of UK researchers, equipping them with skills and experiences relevant to nuclear waste management and decommissioning issues, and to carry out cutting-edge research that has the potential to provide new and innovative pathways to better management of both legacy and future nuclear wastes. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2023

Machine Learning Based Fracture Network Quantification at the IBDP CO2 Sequestration Site

This poster presents the latest results highlighted in SMART phase II task 4 of fracture network and mapping based on IBDP field data measurement. The results will be coupled into the dynamic modeling and simulation study to insight the impact of the fracture in the reservoir system. Such impacts will be applied to AI/ML development for training and test for science-informed decision making support for CO2 storage.

Kumar, Abhash↗
DOE OSTI2024

Modeling and Optimization of Zeolites for Contaminant Removal from Coal Combustion Impoundment Leachates

Coal Combustion Residual (CCR) landfills in the U.S. can lead to elevated contaminant concentrations in groundwater and runoff, particularly of arsenic, boron, and selenium. Zeolites can be readily synthesized from materials contained within the coal combustion ash impoundments and can be cation-exchanged to enhance adsorption capacity, selectivity, and reactivity. However, the optimization of zeolites becomes a daunting task when accounting for the variety of Si:Al ratios, the species of extra-framework cations present, and the zeolite pore structure. Molecular simulations provide methods to study and guide the design of zeolites for the sorption of contaminants from aqueous solution. In this work, models that predict the sorption of arsenic, boron, and selenium from water using cation-exchanged zeolites. Because of the lack of experimental adsorption data for these species of contaminants, models were parametrized to reproduce the results of first-principles calculations and then used to predict sorption for zeolites for a dataset containing 6000 combinations of zeolites and sorption conditions. Machine learning was used to train a model to predict sorption for materials in this database based on the results of the molecular simulations. Next, a genetic algorithm was used to optimize zeolites for the removal of each contaminant from aqueous solution for individual impoundment sites based on contaminant concentrations reported by the Electric Power Research Institute.

Findley, John↗
DOE OSTI2025

MRCI Task 4: Evaluating Regional Infrastructure Technical Summary Report

The infrastructure required to enable carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) goes beyond the equipment and materials needed to capture, transport, and store carbon dioxide (CO2) but includes people and policy that make CCS feasible. The Infrastructure Assessment task of the Midwest Regional Carbon Initiative (MRCI) seeks to determine the infrastructure requirements for the MRCI study area through four activities: • Infrastructure Readiness: Strategizing the buildout of capture, transport, and storage infrastructure in the Midwest, Northeast, and Mid-Atlantic Offshore. • Site Readiness: Determining the CCS readiness of each state in the MRCI region in the categories of subsurface readiness; infrastructure readiness; regulations, permitting, and incentives; and social dynamics. • Jobs, Economics, and Social Characteristics: Quantifying the economic potential, job opportunities, and training opportunities for CCS as well as the social characteristics of the region with a focus on energy and environmental justice (EJ) issues. • Policy and Regulations: Providing an updated accounting of the CCS-relevant policy and regulations in the MRCI region.

CCUS,Carbon storage,Midwest,Midwest Regional Carbo↗
DOE OSTI2025

Deep learning model for fast, science-based forecasting of fluid migration along faults in geologic carbon storage scenarios

Effective long-term geologic storage depends on robust site selection and credible, science-based forecasting of subsurface behavior to ensure storage integrity. For this work, we develop a deep learning–based reduced-order model (ROM) to quantify potential carbon dioxide (CO₂) and brine migration through geological faults. The ROM combines a Transformer model for binary classification and a Stacked Ensemble for regression, trained on a comprehensive dataset generated from 1400 physics-based reservoir simulations. Key geologic and operational parameters—including fault geometry, reservoir structure, and injection conditions—were systematically varied to capture a wide range of fluid migration scenarios. The ROM accurately predicts the onset of migration, cumulative migration volumes of both CO₂ and brine, and associated migration rates, as compared to an independent set of validation simulations, while significantly reducing computational cost compared to traditional simulation methods. Model performance was evaluated across diverse fault configurations, revealing that shallow reservoir geometry and fault angle are among the most influential factors governing migration behavior. Sensitivity analysis using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) provided interpretability, revealing distinct patterns in how geological and operational features drive transient versus cumulative migration outcomes. The ROM’s ability to rapidly simulate fault migration scenarios enables efficient sensitivity analyses, scenario evaluations, and decision support for site selection and monitoring design. This approach enhances the safety, scalability, and long-term operational performance of geologic carbon storage (GCS) systems by providing a robust, interpretable tool for predicting subsurface fluid migration and assessing fault-related migration potential.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Collaborative Research: Natural Organic Matter and Microbial Controls on Mobilization/Immobilization of I and Pu in Soils and Waters Affected by Radionuclide Releases in USA and Japan

In this project, the relationship between natural organic matter (NOM) and two radioactive elements that are relevant to nuclear waste disposal were studied: Plutonium (Pu) and Iodine. The human and environmental risks associated with Pu stem mainly from the very long half-lives of several of its isotopes ( 238 Pu, 88 yr; 239 Pu, 24,100 yr; 240 Pu, 6560 yr) and its radiotoxicity. Understanding Pu biogeochemical behavior in both near-field (>10-11M) and far-field scales (<10-11M) is imperative to the development of approaches for reprocessing Pu, remediation of Pu contamination and accurate assessment of risks posed by disposal practices for Pu-bearing wastes. The environmental mobility of Pu can be affected by redox potential, pH, adsorption, precipitation, complexation, colloid formation, and microbial activity, of which the first characteristic has the most profound influence. Numerous studies have shown high affinity of Pu towards NOM, as well as to mineral phases. NOM is ubiquitous in the environment, e.g., both fulvic and humic acids are able to reduce Pu(V,VI) to Pu(IV) and the redox potential of NOM is positively related to the abundance of phenolic/acidic OH groups. NOM can either facilitate or limit actinide migration, depending on specific biogeochemical conditions including pH, mineral and organic matter characteristics, etc. The other radionuclide of interest is radioiodine ( 129 I). 129I is a major by-product of nuclear fission and of serious concern to the Department of Energy (DOE) as it is among the top risk drivers at existing and potential radiowaste-contaminated sites. The risk of 129 I stems largely from its high bioconcentration factor (90% of the body’s iodine is accumulated in the thyroid), a high inventory at source terms, a very long-half life (16M years), and rapid mobility in the subsurface environment. As a consequence, 129 I has the lowest drinking water standard (1 pCi/L) among all radionuclides in the Federal Register. With a novel and sensitive gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS) method developed in our lab, it is possible to quickly and simultaneously determine the distribution of 129 I and stable 127 I forms in environments, as low as 2 pCi/L for 129 I. This method was subsequently validated using accelerator mass spectroscopy, AMS. IO 3 - and organo-I were determined as major species in the groundwater of SRS and the Hanford Site, contrary to thermodynamic predictions that I- should be the dominant species at these sites. Mobility of 129 I was also demonstrated to depend greatly on the I species and its concentration, sediment pH, and redox state, with times to achieve equilibrium taking up to 12 weeks. Along the groundwater pathway in the F-Area of SRS, 129 I- supplied from the seepage basins was transformed to 129 IO 3 - and organo- 129 I with increasing iodine sediment sorption, causing the lower total 127 I and 129 I concentrations along the gradient transect of the waste plume. By contrast, groundwater 129 I concentrations in the wetlands (as high as 1617.3 pCi/L) were greatly elevated with respect to the source term (159.3 pCi/L). While the NOM promoted the uptake of 129 I to the wetland sediment, it also promoted the formation of soluble organic fraction. A small fraction of NOM that is bound to iodine can behave as a mobile organo-I source. Iodide was enzymatically incorporated into NOM, whereas both iodide and iodate were abiotically bound to NOM, under certain conditions. Iodate removal from the mobile aqueous phase can also occur through incorporation into carbonate (e.g., at the Hanford Site, USA). Thus immobilization and re-mobilization of iodine species were influenced by pH, Eh and the presence of NOM and metal oxides, which adds to the complexity of site remediation action. A ground-breaking result was to elucidate the products (i.e. organo-iodine moieties formed via enzymatic and non-enzymatic processes) at the molecular level by nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) and electrospray ionization Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry (ESI-FTICRMS). We found that iodine-NOM interactions may be influenced by NOM hydrophobic aliphatic moieties. From the perspective of ESI-FTICRMS, organo-iodine formulas were ascribed to the groups of unsaturated hydrocarbons, lignins and proteins. Iodate is likely abiotically reduced to reactive iodine species by lignin- and tannin-like compounds or carboxylic-rich alicyclic molecules (CRAM). We also investigated microbial mechanisms in iodine incorporation into NOM. We established that soil bacteria isolated from F-Area of SRS did not accumulate significant amounts of I- (0.2-2%). Intracellular uptake of I- decreases with increasing pH when pH ranged from 4 to 6. In contrast, 44 out of 84 strains isolated from the F-Area of SRS can transform I- to IO 3 - and organo-iodine. In some cases, oxidation was facilitated in the presence of H 2 O 2 . Microbes can also excrete organic acids that enhance I- oxidation by lowering the ambient pH and reacting with H 2 O 2 to form peroxy carboxylic acids. At lower pH values (≤5), H 2 O 2 hydrolysis was the driving force for iodide-oxidation; whereas, at pH ≥ 6, spontaneous decomposition of peroxy carboxylic acids, originating from H 2 O 2 and organic acids were the primary cause of iodide oxidation. Lastly, it was determined that microbial processes involved in Mn (II) are capable of directly oxidizing I- via enzymatic catalysis (i.e., multicopper oxidases), or indirectly through the formation of reactive oxygen species (ROS) and/or biogenic manganese oxides. ROS-mediated oxidation of I- was found to predominate at pH >5, whereas the enzymatic and Mn oxide pathways were more active at pH < 5. Together, this project has resulted in 9 publications in high-impact journals, and the training of 1 Ph.D and 4 undergraduate students.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗