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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 271 records · Page 15
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Permafrost thaw driven changes in hydrology and vegetation cover increase trace gas emissions and climate forcing in Stordalen Mire from 1970 to 2014

Permafrost thaw increases active layer thickness, changes landscape hydrology and influences vegetation species composition. These changes alter belowground microbial and geochemical processes, affecting production, consumption and net emission rates of climate forcing trace gases. Net carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and methane (CH 4 ) fluxes determine the radiative forcing contribution from these climate-sensitive ecosystems. Permafrost peatlands may be a mosaic of dry frozen hummocks, semi-thawed or perched sphagnum dominated areas, wet permafrost-free sedge dominated sites and open water ponds. We revisited estimates of climate forcing made for 1970 and 2000 for Stordalen Mire in northern Sweden and found the trend of increasing forcing continued into 2014. The Mire continued to transition from dry permafrost to sedge and open water areas, increasing by 100% and 35%, respectively, over the 45-year period, causing the net radiative forcing of Stordalen Mire to shift from negative to positive. This trend is driven by transitioning vegetation community composition, improved estimates of annual CO 2 and CH 4 exchange and a 22% increase in the IPCC's 100-year global warming potential (GWP_100) value for CH 4 . These results indicate that discontinuous permafrost ecosystems, while still remaining a net overall sink of C, can become a positive feedback to climate change on decadal timescales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

System Study: High-Pressure Safety Injection 1998-2022

This report presents an unreliability evaluation of the high-pressure safety injection system (HPSI) at 62 U.S. commercial operating nuclear reactors. New Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) models with the most recent SPAR parameter update results were used in this report. Demand, run hours, and failure data from calendar years 1998–2022 for selected components were obtained from the Institute of Nuclear Power Operations Industry Reporting and Information System. The unreliability results are trended for the most recent 10-year period while yearly estimates for system unreliability are provided for the entire active period. Highly statistically significant increasing trends were identified in both the HPSI system start-only unreliability and 8-hour mission unreliability.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Status and Trends in the U.S. Voluntary Green Power Market (2021 Data)

This data book provides certain data behind figures and tables found in the NREL presentation "Status and Trends in the Voluntary Market (2021 Data)." These data reflect estimates based on the best available data. Excluded Data This data book excludes data for certain figures using confidential survey data or purchased data for which NREL does not own the rights. In particular, renewable energy certificate (REC) price data are not included in this data book Rounding: Some estimates may be slightly inconsistent across tabs due to estimate rounding Citation for the data: E. O'Shaughnessy and J. Heeter. 2022. Status and Trends in the Voluntary Market. Golden, CO: NREL. For more information: contact Jenny Heeter (jenny.heeter@nrel.gov). For more information on voluntary green power markets see NREL's resources at https://www.nrel.gov/analysis/green-power.html. Acronyms CCA Community choice aggregation MWh Megawatt hour PPA Power purchase agreement RECs Renewable energy certificate

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
NASA NTRS1973

ERTS-1 data user investigation of wetlands ecology

The author has identified the following significant results. ERTS-1 imagery (enlarged to 1:250,000) is an excellent tool by which large area coastal marshland mapping may be undertaken. If states can sacrifice some accuracy (amount unknown at this time) in placing of boundary lines, the technique may be used to do the following: (1) estimate extent of man's impact on marshes by ditching and lagooning and accelerated successional trends; (2) place boundaries between wetland and upland and hence estimate amount of coastal marshland remaining in the state; (3) distinguish among relatively large zones of various plant species including high and low growth S. alterniflora, J. roemerianus, and S. cynosuroides; and (4) estimate marsh plant species productivity when ground based information is available.

Anderson, R. R.↗
NASA NTRS1979

Reliability measurement for operational avionics software

Quantitative measures of reliability for operational software in embedded avionics computer systems are presented. Analysis is carried out on data collected during flight testing and from both static and dynamic simulation testing. Failure rate is found to be a useful statistic for estimating software quality and recognizing reliability trends during the operational phase of software development.

Thacker, J.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Geochemistry of Precambrian carbonates. IV - Early Paleoproterozoic (2.25 +/- 0.25 Ga) seawater

The mineralogy, chemistry, and isotopic composition of the Malmani Dolomite, Duck Creek Dolomite, and Bruce 'Limestone' Member of the Espanola Formation are studied in an effort to restrict the first- and second-order variations in isotopic composition of Early Paleoproterozoic seawater. The diagenetic rank is found to increase in the order Duck Creek less than Bruce less than Malmani. The interpolation of alteration trends to 'best' value yields an estimate of 0.70550 for Sr-87/Sr-86. For delta C-13, the measured range of 0 +/- 1.5 percent PDB is similar to that observed for Phanerozoic marine carbonates, while the 'best' delta O-18 value for dolostones is -5 percent PDB, depleted in O-18 relative to Phanerozoic counterparts but comparable to estimates obtained for Archean facies. The isotope geochemistry and mineralogy of Bruce 'Limestone' Member is consistent with the proposition that the sequence was deposited in a lacustrine environment.

Veizer, Jan↗
NASA NTRS1961

Aerodynamic Characteristics at a Mach Number of 3.10 of Several Fourth-Stage Shapes of the Scout Research Vehicle

A wind-tunnel investigation was made at a Mach number of 3.10 (Reynolds number per foot of 16.3 x 10(exp 6) to 16.9 x 10(exp 6)) to determine the aerodynamic characteristics of various modifications of the payload section of the fourth stage of the Scout research vehicle. It was found that, for the combination of stages 3 and 4, increasing the size of the nose of the basic Scout to provide a cylindrical section of the same diameter as the third stage increased the normal-force slope by about 30 percent, the axial force by about 39 percent, and moved the center of pressure forward by about one fourth-stage base diameter. By reducing the diameter of the cylinder, at about one nose length behind the base of the enlarged nose frustum, to that of the basic Scout and thereafter retaining the shape of the basic Scout, the center of pressure was moved rearward by about one-half fourth-stage base diameter at the expense of an additional 19-percent increase in axial force. A spike-hemisphere configuration had the largest forces and moments and the most forward center-of-pressure location of the configurations considered. Except for the axial force and pitching-moment slope, the experimental trends or magnitudes could not be estimated with the desired accuracy by Newtonian or-slender body theory.

Jaquet, Byron M.↗
NASA NTRS2002

The Integrated Air Transportation System Evaluation Tool

Throughout U.S. history, our nation has generally enjoyed exceptional economic growth, driven in part by transportation advancements. Looking forward 25 years, when the national highway and skyway systems are saturated, the nation faces new challenges in creating transportation-driven economic growth and wealth. To meet the national requirement for an improved air traffic management system, NASA developed the goal of tripling throughput over the next 20 years, in all weather conditions while maintaining safety. Analysis of the throughput goal has primarily focused on major airline operations, primarily through the hub and spoke system.However, many suggested concepts to increase throughput may operate outside the hub and spoke system. Examples of such concepts include the Small Aircraft Transportation System, civil tiltrotor, and improved rotorcraft. Proper assessment of the potential contribution of these technologies to the domestic air transportation system requires a modeling capability that includes the country's numerous smaller airports, acting as a fundamental component of the National Air space System, and the demand for such concepts and technologies. Under this task for NASA, the Logistics Management Institute developed higher fidelity demand models that capture the interdependence of short-haul air travel with other transportation modes and explicitly consider the costs of commercial air and other transport modes. To accomplish this work, we generated forecasts of the distribution of general aviation based aircraft and GA itinerant operations at each of nearly 3.000 airport based on changes in economic conditions and demographic trends. We also built modules that estimate the demand for travel by different modes, particularly auto, commercial air, and GA. We examined GA demand from two perspectives: top-down and bottom-up, described in detail.

Wingrove, Earl R., III↗
NASA NTRS2011

Radar and Lidar Radar DEM

Using radar and lidar data, the aim is to improve 3D rendering of terrain, including digital elevation models (DEM) and estimates of vegetation height and biomass in a variety of forest types and terrains. The 3D mapping of vegetation structure and the analysis are useful to determine the role of forest in climate change (carbon cycle), in providing habitat and as a provider of socio-economic services. This in turn will lead to potential for development of more effective land-use management. The first part of the project was to characterize the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission DEM error with respect to ICESat/GLAS point estimates of elevation. We investigated potential trends with latitude, canopy height, signal to noise ratio (SNR), number of LiDAR waveform peaks, and maximum peak width. Scatter plots were produced for each variable and were fitted with 1st and 2nd degree polynomials. Higher order trends were visually inspected through filtering with a mean and median filter. We also assessed trends in the DEM error variance. Finally, a map showing how DEM error was geographically distributed globally was created.

remote sensing↗
NASA NTRS2011

Historic Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation in Mato Grosso, Brazil: 1. Source Data Uncertainties

Historic carbon emissions are an important foundation for proposed efforts to Reduce Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation and enhance forest carbon stocks through conservation and sustainable forest management (REDD+). The level of uncertainty in historic carbon emissions estimates is also critical for REDD+, since high uncertainties could limit climate benefits from mitigation actions. Here, we analyzed source data uncertainties based on the range of available deforestation, forest degradation, and forest carbon stock estimates for the Brazilian state of Mato Grosso during 1990-2008. Results: Deforestation estimates showed good agreement for multi-year trends of increasing and decreasing deforestation during the study period. However, annual deforestation rates differed by >20% in more than half of the years between 1997-2008, even for products based on similar input data. Tier 2 estimates of average forest carbon stocks varied between 99-192 Mg C/ha, with greatest differences in northwest Mato Grosso. Carbon stocks in deforested areas increased over the study period, yet this increasing trend in deforested biomass was smaller than the difference among carbon stock datasets for these areas. Conclusions: Patterns of spatial and temporal disagreement among available data products provide a roadmap for future efforts to reduce source data uncertainties for estimates of historic forest carbon emissions. Specifically, regions with large discrepancies in available estimates of both deforestation and forest carbon stocks are priority areas for evaluating and improving existing estimates. Full carbon accounting for REDD+ will also require filling data gaps, including forest degradation and secondary forest, with annual data on all forest transitions.

Morton, Douglas C.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Robust historical evapotranspiration trends across climate regimes

Evapotranspiration (ET) links the hydrological, energy and carbon cycles on the land surface. Quantifying ET and its spatio-temporal changes is also key to understanding climate extremes such as droughts, heatwaves and flooding. Regional ET estimates require reliable observation-based gridded ET datasets, and while many have been developed using physically based, empirically based and hybrid techniques, their efficacy, and particularly the efficacy of their uncertainty estimates, is difficult to verify. In this work, we extend the methodology used in Hobeichi et al. (2018) to derive two new versions of the Derived Optimal Linear Combination Evapotranspiration (DOLCE) product, with observationally constrained spatio-temporally varying uncertainty estimates, higher spatial resolution, more constituent products and extended temporal coverage (1980–2018). After demonstrating the efficacy of these uncertainty estimates with out-of-sample testing, we derive novel ET climatology clusters for the land surface, based on the magnitude and variability of ET at each location on land. The new clusters include three wet and three dry regimes and provide an approximation of Köppen–Geiger climate classes. The verified uncertainty estimates and extended time period then allow us to examine the robustness of historical trends spatially and in each of these six ET climatology clusters. We find that despite robust decreasing ET trends in some regions these do not correlate with behavioural ET clusters. Each cluster, and the majority of the Earth's surface, shows clear robust increases in ET over the recent historical period. The new datasets DOLCE V2.1 and DOLCE V3 can be used for benchmarking global ET estimates and for examining ET trends respectively.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2019

NCA-LDAS: Overview and Analysis of Hydrologic Trends for the National Climate Assessment

Terrestrial hydrologic trends over the conterminous United States are estimated for 1980–2015 using the National Climate Assessment Land Data Assimilation System (NCA-LDAS) reanalysis. NCA-LDAS employs the uncoupled Noah version 3.3 land surface model at 0.125° 3 0.125° forced with NLDAS-2 meteorology, rescaled Climate Prediction Center precipitation, and assimilated satellite-based soil moisture, snow depth, and irrigation products. Mean annual trends are reported using the nonparametric Mann–Kendall test at p < 0.1 significance. Results illustrate the interrelationship between regional gradients in forcing trends and trends in other land energy and water stores and fluxes. Mean precipitation trends range from +3 to +9 mm/yr in the upper Great Plains and Northeast to -1 to -9 mm/yr in the West and South, net radiation flux trends range from +0.05 to +0.20 W/sq. m yr in the East to -0.05 to -0.20 W/sq. m yr in the West, and U.S.-wide temperature trends average about +0.03K/yr. Trends in soil moisture, snow cover, latent and sensible heat fluxes, and runoff are consistent with forcings, contributing to increasing evaporative fraction trends from west to east. Evaluation of NCA-LDAS trends compared to independent data indicates mixed results. The RMSE of U.S.-wide trends in number of snow cover days improved from 3.13 to 2.89 days/yr while trend detection increased 11%. Trends in latent heat flux were hardly affected, with RMSE decreasing only from 0.17 to 0.16 W/sq. m yr, while trend detection increased 2%. NCA-LDAS runoff trends degraded significantly from 2.6 to 16.1 mm/yr while trend detection was unaffected. Analysis also indicated that NCA-LDAS exhibits relatively more skill in low precipitation station density areas, suggesting there are limits to the effectiveness of satellite data assimilation in densely gauged regions. Overall, NCA-LDAS demonstrates capability for quantifying physically consistent, U.S. hydrologic climate trends over the satellite era.

Michael F. Jasinski↗
NASA NTRS2010

Trends in Ocean Irradiance using a Radiative Model Forced with Terra Aerosols and Clouds

Aerosol and cloud information from MODIS on Terra provide enhanced capability to understand surface irradiance over the oceans and its variability. These relationships can be important for ocean biology and carbon cycles. An established radiative transfer model, the Ocean-Atmosphere Spectral Irradiance Model (OASIM) is used to describe ocean irradiance variability on seasonal to decadal time scales. The model is forced with information on aerosols and clouds from the MODIS sensor on Terra and Aqua. A 7-year record (2000-2006) showed no trends in global ocean surface irradiance or photosynthetic available irradiance (PAR). There were significant (P<0.05) negative trends in the Mediterranean Sea, tropical Pacific) and tropical Indian Oceans, of -7.0, -5.0 and -2.7 W/sq m respectively. Global interannual variability was also modest. Regional interannual variability was quite large in some ocean basins, where monthly excursions from climatology were often >20 W/sq m. The trends using MODIS data contrast with results from OASIM using liquid water path estimates from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP). Here, a global trend of -2 W/sq m was observed, largely dues to a large negative trend in the Antarctic -12 W/sq m. These results suggest the importance of the choice of liquid water path data sets in assessments of medium-length trends in ocean surface irradiance. The choices also impact the evaluation of changes in ocean biogeochemistry.

Gregg, Watson↗
DOE OSTI2022

Uncertainties in Local Intense Precipitation Flood Modeling

In the Task 1 report for the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) funded Local Intense Precipitation (LIP) Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment (PFHA) Pilot Study, the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) reviewed hydrologic and hydraulic modeling approaches for estimation of LIP flooding and their implementation in readily available simulation software packages (Prasad and Yuan 2020). NRC’s interest is in developing guidance for performing LIP PFHA at nuclear power plant (NPP) sites. This report describes the work done under Task 2 of the study that focused on describing uncertainties associated with LIP flood modeling. Two main types of uncertainties exist in LIP flood modeling: (1) aleatory uncertainties that arise from the inherent natural variability of the hydrometeorological system and (2) epistemic uncertainties that arise from the analysts’ incomplete knowledge of the hydrometeorological and site configuration. Principal sources for aleatory variability in LIP flood simulations at NPP sites include precipitation (i.e., magnitude, duration, and temporal distribution of LIP events), initial conditions (e.g., soil moisture content, stormwater drainage discharge, surface storage), boundary conditions (e.g., upstream discharge, downstream water surface elevations), and long-term temporal trends (e.g., climate change). This report describes approaches used for estimating the aleatory variability in precipitation including precipitation-frequency analysis, numerical weather prediction, and stochastic weather generation. Data sources that can be used to estimate aleatory variability in initial and boundary conditions are also described. Approaches to include effects of long-term trends like those from climate change into estimation of aleatory variability are summarized. Sources of epistemic uncertainty in LIP flood simulations at NPP sites include process representation (e.g., multiple approaches to represent runoff generation, stormwater drainage, and hydraulic routing), site configurations (e.g., site layout, flow features, status of temporary flood protection, blockage of drains), model resolution, and long-term temporal trends (e.g., known/planned site alterations, land-use changes at and in the vicinity of the site). The report describes alternative process representations (methods and models), particularly those implemented in the LIP flood simulation software packages reviewed in Task 1 report, and lists the associated model parameters. Approaches for estimating model parameters when surface and subsurface water exchanges occur are also described.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS2019

NCA-LDAS: Overview and Analysis of Hydrologic Trends for the National Climate Assessment

Terrestrial hydrologic trends over the conterminous United States are estimated for 1980-47 2015 using the National Climate Assessment-Land Data Assimilation System (NCA-LDAS) reanalysis. NCA-LDAS employs the uncoupled Noah Version 3.3 land surface model at 0.125 degreesx0.125 degrees forced with NLDAS-2 meteorology, rescaled Climate Prediction Center precipitation, and assimilated satellite-based soil moisture, snow depth and irrigation products. Mean annual trends are reported using the nonparametric Mann-Kendall test at p<0.1 significance. Results illustrate the interrelationship between regional gradients in forcing trends, and trends in other land energy and water stores and fluxes. Mean precipitation trends range from +3 to +9 mm/yr in the Upper Great Plains and Northeast to -1 to -9 in the West and South; net radiation flux trends range from +0.05 to +0.20 W/m(exp2)/yr in the East to -0.05 to -0.20 in the West; U.S.-wide temperature trends average about +0.03K/yr. Trends in soil moisture, snow cover, latent and sensible heat fluxes and runoff are consistent with forcings, contributing to increasing evaporative fraction trends from West to East. Evaluation of NCA-LDAS trends compared to independent data indicates mixed results. The RMSE of U.S.-wide trends in number of snow cover days improved from 3.13 to 2.89 days/yr while trend detection increased 11%; Trends in latent heat flux were hardly affected, RMSE decreasing only 0.17 to 0.16 W/m(exp 2)/yr, while trend detection increased 2%; NCA-LDAS runoff trends degraded significantly from 2.6 to 16.1 mm/yr while trend detection was unaffected. Analysis also indicated that NCA-LDAS exhibits relatively more skill in low precipitation station density areas, suggesting there are limits to the effectiveness of satellite data assimilation in densely gaged regions. Overall, NCA-LDAS demonstrates capability for quantifying physically consistent, U.S. hydrologic climate trends over the satellite era.

Snow depth↗
DOE OSTI2023

Electrical Infrastructure Cost Model for Marine Energy Systems

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Electrical Infrastructure Cost Model is an Excel-based tool designed to estimate the electrical infrastructure costs of marine energy components and subsystems. It incorporates data collected from offshore wind projects, utility projects, and other relevant sources to provide accurate and comprehensive cost projections. With its user-friendly interface, the model allows users to input various parameters related to the system array, electrical cables, and substations. By leveraging industry data, cost trends, and technological advancements, the model generates outputs that include system array sizing, electrical cable specifications and costs, substation specifications and costs, and total electrical infrastructure costs. One of the notable strengths of the model is its flexibility in covering multiple-orders-of-magnitude scaled systems, accommodating projects ranging from proof-of-concept or pilot-scale installations to large-scale offshore systems. By collecting data largely from offshore wind reports and utility projects, the model incorporates real-world conditions and accounts for industry-specific factors. It incorporates cost trends and sizing relationships to deliver cost estimations for electrical infrastructure components, such as electrical cables and substation equipment.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2020

System Study: Emergency Power System 1998–2018

This report presents an unreliability evaluation of the emergency power system (EPS) at 104 U.S. commercial nuclear power plants. Demand, run hours, and failure data from 1998 through 2018 for selected components were obtained from the Institute of Nuclear Power Operations (INPO) Industry Reporting and Information System (IRIS), formerly the INPO Consolidated Events Database (ICES). The unreliability results are trended for the most recent 10 year period while yearly estimates for system unreliability are provided for the entire active period. No statistically significant increasing or decreasing trends were identified in the EPS results.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2020

System Study: Residual Heat Removal 1998–2018

This report presents an unreliability evaluation of the residual heat removal (RHR) system in two modes of operation (low-pressure injection in response to a large loss-of-coolant accident and post-trip shutdown-cooling) at 104 U.S. commercial nuclear power plants. Demand, run hours, and failure data from calendar years 1998 through 2018 for selected components were obtained from the Institute of Nuclear Power Operations (INPO) Industry Reporting and Information System (IRIS), formerly the INPO Consolidated Events Database (ICES). The unreliability results are trended for the most recent 10 year period while yearly estimates for system unreliability are provided for the entire active period. No statistically significant increasing or decreasing trends were identified in the RHR results.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗