Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “uncertainity”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 271 records · Page 15
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Energy sector portfolio analysis with uncertainty

Governments are dealing with the challenge of how to efficiently invest in research and development portfolios related to energy technologies. Research and development investment decisions in the energy space are especially difficult due to numerous risks and uncertainties, and due to the complexity of energy's interactions with the broad economy. Historically, much of the U.S. Department of Energy's in-depth research and development analyses focused on assessing the impact of a research and development activity in isolation from other available opportunities and did not substantially consider risk and uncertainty. Endeavoring to combine integrated energy-economy modeling with uncertainty analysis and technology-specific research and development activities, the U.S. Department of Energy commissioned the development of the Stochastic Energy Deployment System to support and improve public energy research and development decision-making. The Stochastic Energy Deployment System draws from expert-elicited probability distributions for research and development-driven improvements in technology cost and performance, and it uses Monte Carlo simulations to evaluate the likelihood of outcomes within a system dynamics energy-economy model. The framework estimates the uncertain benefits and costs of various research and development portfolios and provides insight into the probability of meeting national technology goals, while accounting for interactions with the larger economy and for interactions among research and development investments spanning many energy sectors.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Heterogeneity or illusion? Track the carbon Kuznets curve of global residential building operations

Residential buildings, the “last mile” sector in the global decarbonization, have become the most significant uncertain factor hindering carbon neutrality with increasing household energy demand. To track the operational carbon in buildings, this study investigates the carbon Kuznets curve (CKC) and the corresponding decoupling status of residential building operations at four emission scales by using the data of 30 countries from 2000 to 2019. The results show that (1) the CKC model can fit more than half of the samples. Most curves have an inverted U-shape, with 76% of emission per household and 82% of total emissions. (2) In the presence of the CKC, over four-fifths of global residential buildings peak regardless of any emission scale. The analysis denotes that the carbon emissions of developed countries reach their peaks earlier. In the total emissions, the samples’ peaking proportion is 20% and 25% with income per capita < 20,000 United States dollars (USD) and 20,000–40,000 USD, respectively. (3) The Tapio decoupling analysis and the threshold regression effectively verify the robustness and the heterogeneity of CKCs, respectively. Strong decoupling effects of CKCs in most countries are demonstrated at the scales of emission per floor space and the total emissions, and the heterogeneity proves the classic inverted U-shaped relationship between economy and emissions doesn’t exist in all emitters. Overall, this study tracks the historical carbon emission trajectories of residential building operations at a global scale, providing reference for different economies to simulate the dynamic of building carbon emissions along with the economic booming.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2023

Temporal performance indicators for an integrated pilot-scale membrane distillation-concentrated solar power/photovoltaic system

Management of concentrate streams in inland applications has uncertain long-term environmental impacts. This study investigates an intensified solar-energy capture desalination system that integrates membrane distillation (MD) with a hybrid concentrated solar power (CSP)/photovoltaic (PV) collector to realize self-sustained zero-waste discharge for effective management of concentrate streams in inland and off-grid applications. The demonstration-scale CSP/PV system can produce up to 178 kWh of thermal energy and 4 kWh of electrical energy per day. The thermal and electrical energy from the CSP/PV system is directly supplied to the air gap MD (AGMD) pilot-scale system producing up to 288 L of distilled water per day. Experiments were performed on the hybrid AGMD-CSP/PV system to evaluate system performance under various operating conditions including AGMD and CSP flow rates, CSP system pre-heating, and AGMD vacuum pressure. Experimental results indicate that doubling the AGMD flow rate results in a 119% increase in thermal energy utilization and a 71% increase in distillate production. Compared to the winter months, operating the system in summer months when direct normal irradiance (DNI) is highest results in nearly double the distillate production (88 L in winter and 168 L in summer) and nearly three times the amount of thermal energy consumption (15 kWh in winter and 43 kWh in summer). Operating with vacuum resulted in a 34% increase in distillate production and allowing the thermal storage reservoir to preheat in the winter resulted in a 61% increase in distillate production. Altogether, experimental results highlight the tradeoff between distillate production and thermal and electrical energy production and consumption under various environmental conditions and the potential for AGMD-CSP/PV to be a stand-alone desalination system.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Improving the particle dry deposition scheme in the CMAQ photochemical modeling system

Dry deposition of atmospheric aerosols in large-scale models is a critical, but highly uncertain, sink process with a strong dependence on particle size, meteorological conditions, and land surface properties. This study investigates the particle dry deposition scheme implemented in the standard Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model v5.2.1, characterizes its underlying parameterized components with comparison to a similar scheme in a contemporary regional-scale model, and proposes two updated schemes that are then evaluated with available ambient particle deposition velocity (V d ) measurements. Both updated schemes reduce the surprisingly strong dependence of deposition velocity on the aerosol mode width, with one scheme further introducing a dependence on vegetation coverage that is broadly consistent with variability in observations between vegetated and non-vegetated surfaces. Compared to the base scheme, the updated scheme with vegetation dependence increases V d for submicron particles and decreases it for larger particles by an average of 37% and –66%, respectively. This scheme performs statistically better than the base scheme, reducing fractional biases by 56%–97% for vegetated land-use types and has roughly equivalent performance over water. The base and updated schemes are tested with three annual CMAQ (v5.2.1) simulations for the year 2011; predicted ambient aerosol concentrations are evaluated with routine monitoring network observations and predicted dry deposition fluxes are evaluated with data from the Clean Air Status and Trends Network (CASTNET). The updated scheme with vegetation dependence reduces negative fractional biases for PM 10 by 41% and positive fractional biases for PM 2.5 organic carbon by 15%. This scheme has been incorporated into the most recent publicly accessible versions of CMAQ (v5.3 and beyond) to replace the scheme used in previous versions of CMAQ (v4.5 through v5.2.1).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Impact of phenanthrene co-administration on the toxicokinetics of benzo[a]pyrene in humans. UPLC-accelerator mass spectrometry following oral microdosing

Current risk assessments for environmental carcinogens rely on animal studies utilizing doses orders of magnitude higher than actual human exposures. Epidemiological studies of people with high exposures (e.g., occupational) are of value, but rely on uncertain exposure data. In addition, exposures are typically not to a single chemical but to mixtures, such as polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). The extremely high sensitivity of accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) allows for dosing humans with known carcinogens with de minimus risk. In this study UPLC-AMS was used to assess the toxicokinetics of [ 14 C]-benzo[a]pyrene ([ 14 C]-BaP) when dosed alone or in a binary mixture with phenanthrene (Phe). Plasma was collected for 48 h following a dose of [ 14 C]-BaP (50 ng, 5.4 nCi) or the same dose of [ 14 C]-BaP plus Phe (1250 ng). Following the binary mixture, C max of [ 14 C]-BaP significantly decreased (4.4-fold) whereas the volume of distribution (V d ) increased (2-fold). Further, the toxicokinetics of twelve [ 14 C]-BaP metabolites provided evidence of little change in the metabolite profile of [ 14 C]-BaP and the pattern was overall reduction consistent with reduced absorption (decrease in C max ). Although Phe was shown to be a competitive inhibitor of the major hepatic cytochrome P-450 (CYP) responsible for metabolism of [ 14 C]-BaP, CYP1A2, the high inhibition constant (K i ) and lack of any increase in unmetabolized [ 14 C]-BaP in plasma makes this mechanism unlikely to be responsible. Rather, co-administration of Phe reduces the absorption of [ 14 C]-BaP through a mechanism yet to be determined. Furthermore, this is the first study to provide evidence that, at actual environmental levels of exposure, the toxicokinetics of [ 14 C]-BaP in humans is markedly altered by the presence of a second PAH, Phe, a common component of environmental PAH mixtures.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Multistage economic MPC for systems with a cyclic steady state: A gas network case study

Multistage model predictive control (MPC) provides a robust control strategy for dynamic systems with uncertainties and a setpoint tracking objective. Moreover, extending MPC to minimize an economic cost instead of tracking a pre-calculated optimal setpoint improves controller performance. This paper presents a novel multistage economic nonlinear model predictive control (E-NMPC) framework for dynamic systems operating under uncertainty, with specific application to natural gas transmission networks. A key innovation lies in the integration of cyclic steady-state (CSS) constraints within the multistage MPC formulation, enabling the controller to manage periodic operating conditions commonly observed in energy systems. A Lyapunov-based descent condition is enforced to ensure robust stability of the controller. The multistage economic MPC framework is validated on two gas pipeline case studies, where it successfully minimizes net energy consumption, respects operational constraints under uncertain demand profiles, and guides the network to optimal cyclic operation. The Lyapunov function remains bounded in both case studies, validating the robust stability of multistage E-NMPC.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Plutonium mobilization from contaminated estuarine sediments, Esk Estuary (UK)

Since 1952, liquid radioactive effluent containing 238-242 Pu, 241 Am, 237 Np, 137 Cs, and 99 Tc has been released with authorization from the Sellafield nuclear complex (UK) into the Irish Sea. This represents the largest source of plutonium (Pu) discharged in all western Europe, with 276 kg having been released. In the Eastern Irish Sea, the majority of the transuranic activity has settled into an area of sediments (Mudpatch) located off the Cumbrian coast. Radionuclides from the Mudpatch have been re-dispersed via particulate transport in fine-grained estuarine and intertidal sediments to the North-East Irish Sea, including the intertidal saltmarsh located at the mouth of the Esk Estuary. Saltmarshes are highly dynamic systems which are vulnerable to external agents (sea level change, erosion, sediment supply, and freshwater inputs), and their stability remains uncertain under current sea level rise projections and possible increases in storm activity. In this work, we examined factors affecting Pu mobility in contaminated sediments collected from the Esk Estuary by conducting leaching experiments under both anoxic and oxic conditions. Here, leaching experiments were conducted over a 9-month period and were periodically sampled to determine solution phase Pu via multicollector-inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry (MC-ICP-MS), and to measure redox indicators (Eh, pH and extractable Fe(II)). Microbial community composition was also characterized in the sediments, and at the beginning and end of the anoxic/oxic experiments. Results show that: 1) Pu leaching is about three times greater in solutions leached under anoxic conditions compared to oxic conditions, 2) the sediment slurry microbial communities shift as conditions change from anoxic to oxic, 3) Pu leaching is enhanced in the shallow sediments (0–10 cm depth), and 4) the magnitude of Pu leached from sediments is not correlated with total Pu, indicating that the biogeochemistry of sediment-associated Pu is spatially heterogeneous. These findings provide constraints on the stability of redox sensitive Pu in biogeochemically dynamic/transient environments on a timescale of months and suggests that anoxic conditions can enhance Pu mobility in estuarine systems.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗
DOE OSTI2020

Multilevel and multifidelity uncertainty quantification for cardiovascular hemodynamics

Standard approaches for uncertainty quantification in cardiovascular modeling pose challenges due to the large number of uncertain inputs and the significant computational cost of realistic three-dimensional simulations. Here, we propose an efficient uncertainty quantification framework utilizing a multilevel multifidelity Monte Carlo (MLMF) estimator to improve the accuracy of hemodynamic quantities of interest while maintaining reasonable computational cost. This is achieved by leveraging three cardiovascular model fidelities, each with varying spatial resolution to rigorously quantify the variability in hemodynamic outputs. We employ two low-fidelity models (zero- and one-dimensional) to construct several different estimators. Our goal is to investigate and compare the efficiency of estimators built from combinations of these two low-fidelity model alternatives and our high-fidelity three-dimensional models. We demonstrate this framework on healthy and diseased models of aortic and coronary anatomy, including uncertainties in material property and boundary condition parameters. Our goal is to demonstrate that for this application it is possible to accelerate the convergence of the estimators by utilizing a MLMF paradigm. Therefore, we compare our approach to single fidelity Monte Carlo estimators and to a multilevel Monte Carlo approach based only on three-dimensional simulations, but leveraging multiple spatial resolutions. We demonstrate significant, on the order of 10 to 100 times, reduction in total computational cost with the MLMF estimators. We also examine the differing properties of the MLMF estimators in healthy versus diseased models, as well as global versus local quantities of interest. As expected, global quantities such as outlet pressure and flow show larger reductions than local quantities, such as those relating to wall shear stress, as the latter rely more heavily on the highest fidelity model evaluations. Similarly, healthy models show larger reductions than diseased models. In all cases, our workflow coupling Dakota’s MLMF estimators with the SimVascular cardiovascular modeling framework makes uncertainty quantification feasible for constrained computational budgets.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Data-driven surrogates for high dimensional models using Gaussian process regression on the Grassmann manifold

This paper introduces a surrogate modeling scheme based on Grassmannian manifold learning to be used for cost-efficient predictions of high-dimensional stochastic systems. The method exploits subspace-structured features of each solution by projecting it onto a Grassmann manifold. This point-wise linear dimensionality reduction harnesses the structural information to assess the similarity between solutions at different points in the input parameter space. The method utilizes a solution clustering approach in order to identify regions of the parameter space over which solutions are sufficiently similarly such that they can be interpolated on the Grassmannian. In this clustering, the reduced-order solutions are partitioned into disjoint clusters on the Grassmann manifold using the eigen-structure of properly defined Grassmannian kernels and, the Karcher mean of each cluster is estimated. Then, the points in each cluster are projected onto the tangent space with origin at the corresponding Karcher mean using the exponential mapping. For each cluster, a Gaussian process regression model is trained that maps the input parameters of the system to the reduced solution points of the corresponding cluster projected onto the tangent space. Using this Gaussian process model, the full-field solution can be efficiently predicted at any new point in the parameter space. In certain cases, the solution clusters will span disjoint regions of the parameter space. In such cases, for each of the solution clusters we utilize a second, density-based spatial clustering to group their corresponding input parameter points in the Euclidean space. The proposed method is applied to two numerical examples. Here, the first is a nonlinear stochastic ordinary differential equation with uncertain initial conditions where the surrogate is used to predict the time history solution. The second involves modeling of plastic deformation in a model amorphous solid using the Shear Transformation Zone theory of plasticity, where the proposed surrogate is used to predict the full strain field of a material specimen under large shear strains.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Probabilistic learning on manifolds constrained by nonlinear partial differential equations for small datasets

A novel extension of the Probabilistic Learning on Manifolds (PLoM) is presented. It makes it possible to synthesize solutions to a wide range of nonlinear stochastic boundary value problems described by partial differential equations (PDEs) for which a stochastic computational model (SCM) is available and which depend on a vector-valued random control parameter. The cost of a single numerical evaluation of this SCM is assumed to be such that only a limited number of points can be computed for constructing the training dataset (small data). Each point of the training dataset is made up of realizations from a vector-valued stochastic process (the stochastic solution) and the associated random control parameter on which it depends. The presented PLoM constrained by PDE allows for generating a large number of learned realizations of the stochastic process and its corresponding random control parameter. These learned realizations are generated so as to minimize the vector-valued random residual of the PDE in the mean-square sense. Appropriate novel methods are developed to solve this challenging problem. Three applications are presented. The first one is a simple uncertain nonlinear dynamical system with a nonstationary stochastic excitation. The second one concerns the 2D nonlinear unsteady Navier–Stokes equations for incompressible flows in which the Reynolds number is the random control parameter. Here, the last one deals with the nonlinear dynamics of a 3D elastic structure with uncertainties. The results obtained make it possible to validate the PLoM constrained by stochastic PDE but also provide further validation of the PLoM without constraint.

Machine learning↗
DOE OSTI2023

Multifidelity uncertainty quantification with models based on dissimilar parameters

Multifidelity uncertainty quantification (MF UQ) sampling approaches have been shown to significantly reduce the variance of statistical estimators while preserving the bias of the highest-fidelity model, provided that the low-fidelity models are well correlated. However, maintaining a high level of correlation can be challenging, especially when models depend on different input uncertain parameters, which drastically reduces the correlation. Existing MF UQ approaches do not adequately address this issue. In this work, we propose a new sampling strategy that exploits a shared space to improve the correlation among models with dissimilar parameterization. We achieve this by transforming the original coordinates onto an auxiliary manifold using the adaptive basis (AB) method (Tipireddy and Ghanem, 2014). The AB method has two main benefits: (1) it provides an effective tool to identify the low-dimensional manifold on which each model can be represented, and (2) it enables easy transformation of polynomial chaos representations from high- to low-dimensional spaces. This latter feature is used to identify a shared manifold among models without requiring additional evaluations. Here we present two algorithmic flavors of the new estimator to cover different analysis scenarios, including those with legacy and non-legacy high-fidelity (HF) data. We provide numerical results for analytical examples, a direct field acoustic test, and a finite element model of a nuclear fuel assembly. For all examples, we compare the proposed strategy against both single-fidelity and MF estimators based on the original model parameterization.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Data-driven analysis of relight variability of jet fuels induced by turbulence

For safety purposes, reliable reignition of aircraft engines in the event of flame blow-out is a critical requirement. Typically, an external ignition source in the form of a spark is used to achieve a stable flame in the combustor. However, such forced turbulent ignition may not always successfully relight the combustor, mainly because the state of the combustor cannot be precisely determined. Uncertainty in the turbulent flow inside the combustor, inflow conditions, and spark discharge characteristics can lead to variability in sparking outcomes even for nominally identical operating conditions. Prior studies have shown that of all the uncertain parameters, turbulence is often dominant and can drastically alter ignition behavior. For instance, even when different fuels have similar ignition delay times, their ignition behavior in practical systems can be completely different. In practical operating conditions, it is challenging to understand why ignition fails and how much variation in outcomes can be expected. The focus of this work is to understand relight variability induced by turbulence for two different aircraft fuels, namely Jet-A and a variant named C1. A detailed, previously developed simulation approach is used to generate a large number of successful and failed ignition events. Using this data, the cause of misfire is evaluated based on a discriminant analysis that delineates the difference between turbulent initial conditions that lead to ignition or failure. From the discriminant analysis, a compressed sensing algorithm is then applied to help pinpoint the locations of relevant turbulent features. Findings from the discriminant analysis are confirmed with the time history of near kernel properties. Next, a clustering strategy is used to identify ignition and misfire modes. With this approach, it was determined that the cause of ignition failure is different for the two fuels. While it was found that Jet-A is influenced by fuel entrainment, C1 was found to be more sensitive to small scale turbulence features. Finally, a larger variability is found in the ignition modes of C1, which can be subject to extreme events induced by kernel breakdown.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Understanding the plasticity contributions during laser-shock loading and spall failure of Cu microstructures at the atomic scales

A hybrid atomic-scale and continuum modeling framework is used to study the microstructural evolution during the laser-induced shock deformation and failure (spallation) of copper microstructures. A continuum two-temperature model (TTM) is used to account for the interaction of Cu atoms with a laser in molecular dynamics (MD) simulations. The MD-TTM simulations study the effect of laser loading conditions (laser fluence) on the microstructure (defects) evolution during various stages of shock wave propagation, reflection, and interaction in single-crystal (sc) Cu systems. In addition, the role of the microstructure is investigated by comparing the defect evolution and spall response of sc-Cu and nanocrystalline (nc) Cu systems. The defect (stacking faults and twin faults) evolution behavior in the metal at various times is further characterized using virtual in situ selected area electron diffraction and x-ray diffraction during various stages of evolution of microstructure. Here, the simulations elucidate the uncertain relation between spall strength and strain-rate and the much stronger relation between the spall strength and the temperatures generated due to laser shock loading for the small Cu sample dimensions considered here.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Active learning for SNAP interatomic potentials via Bayesian predictive uncertainty

Bayesian inference with a simple Gaussian error model is used to efficiently compute prediction variances for energies, forces, and stresses in the linear SNAP interatomic potential. Here, the prediction variance is shown to have a strong correlation with the absolute error over approximately 24 orders of magnitude. Using this prediction variance, an active learning algorithm is constructed to iteratively train a potential by selecting the structures with the most uncertain properties from a pool of candidate structures. The relative importance of the energy, force, and stress errors in the objective function is shown to have a strong impact upon the trajectory of their respective net error metrics when running the active learning algorithm. Batched training of different batch sizes is also tested against singular structure updates, and it is found that batches can be used to significantly reduce the number of retraining steps required with only minor impact on the active learning trajectory.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

A control-inspired approach for energy transition planning under uncertainty

As the global carbon footprint continues to grow, many countries are implementing carbon emission reduction policies which have incentivized the expansion of low-carbon and renewable technologies. However, the speed and scale of deployment falls short of that needed to meet climate goals. Energy system models serve as key tools for guiding investment decisions and helping policymakers evaluate the effects of various policies on the development of an energy system. This study focuses on the energy system of the United States and builds upon prior work by incorporating more geographic granularity to account for the trade of commodities and addresses transmission congestion through electricity price adjustments. Furthermore, real-world characteristics, such as delays in constructing new liquid fuel production and electricity generation facilities, are integrated using a sequential decision-making approach that better reflects how decisions can be updated as uncertainties unfold. Results demonstrate that stochastic programming combined with sequential decision-making produces energy transition pathways that are robust to multiple uncertain futures. Additionally, considering real-world characteristics significantly impacts the deployment of renewable technologies and the ability to meet carbon emission reduction goals while also reliably meeting demand. These findings highlight the importance of accounting for uncertainty and real-world characteristics to avoid overly optimistic projections in energy system planning.

energy systems↗
DOE OSTI2021

A nudged hybrid analysis and modeling approach for realtime wake-vortex transport and decay prediction

Here, we put forth a long short-term memory (LSTM) nudging framework for the enhancement of reduced order models (ROMs) of fluid flows utilizing noisy measurements for air traffic improvements. Toward emerging applications of digital twins in aviation, the proposed approach allows for constructing a realtime predictive tool for wake-vortex transport and decay systems. We build on the fact that in realistic application, there are uncertainties in initial and boundary conditions, model parameters, as well as measurements. Moreover, conventional nonlinear ROMs based on Galerkin projection (GROMs) suffer from imperfection and solution instabilities, especially for advection-dominated flows with slow decay in the Kolmogorov n-width. In the presented LSTM nudging (LSTM-N) approach, we fuse forecasts from a combination of imperfect GROM and uncertain state estimates, with sparse Eulerian sensor measurements to provide more reliable predictions in a dynamical data assimilation framework. We illustrate our concept by solving the two-dimensional vorticity transport equation. We investigate the effects of measurements noise and state estimate uncertainty on the performance of the LSTM-N behavior. We also demonstrate that it can sufficiently handle different levels of temporal and spatial measurement sparsity, and offer a huge potential in developing next-generation digital twin technologies for aerospace applications.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Stochastic boundary condition effects on supersonic leading edge blowing

The present manuscript studies the robustness of leading edge blowing for active control of the upstream bow shock and overall aerothermal characteristics of a supersonic airfoil subject to variability in the injection conditions. The injection boundary conditions were considered stochastic and their randomness was propagated to the flow topology and aerothermal quantities of interest by means of non-intrusive Polynomial Chaos Expansions. The evaluations needed to build these expansions were carried out via steady two-dimensional Reynolds-Averaged Navier Stokes simulations. Two different injection port sizes were considered, with the smallest promoting a Coanda effect that gives rise to non-symmetric flow topologies. The uncertain boundary conditions lead to significant variations in the flow topology, particularly at the injection exit and the bow shock position, with variations of up to 75% of the nominal value. Here this study identifies the key operating conditions to ensure the optimal application of leading-edge injection for active control of supersonic airfoils.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗