Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “uncertainty in complex systems”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 271 records · Page 15

Reinforcement Learning for Spacecraft Navigation & Environment Characterization in the Planar-Restricted Two-Body Problem

During mission planning and execution, spacecraft operators must balance data collection and downlink, systems constraints, human factors, and navigation. As missions become increasingly complex and ambitious, these factors become more intricately entwined and conflicted. For example, a spacecraft’s position must be known accurately in order to point to and image a target. Large position errors may cause missed observations or require additional scanning that increases operations complexity and data volume. Some observations require imaging from specific relative geometries which adds orbit control and timing considerations. Adjusting the orbit may allow for optimal observability of environmental parameters and/or enable more efficient sensor coverage, but maneuver execution error adds uncertainty to the current state which impacts both characterization and coverage objectives.

Navigation↗

Shuttle booster separation aerodynamics

A wind tunnel test program of some complexity was used to define the aerodynamic forces exerted on the space shuttle solid rocket boosters and orbiter/external tank during staging. In these tests, problems associated with the use of up to three models in close proximity and with the need to simulate high pressure separation motor plumes were handled in a unique and effective manner. A new method was developed for efficiently organizing data which is a function of a large number of independent variables. Data derived from the test program drastically reduced previous estimates of aerodynamic uncertainties and allowed certification of the separation system at the design maximum staging dynamic pressure. Reduction of flight data has implicitly verified the staging aerodynamics data base and its associated uncertainties.

Mark K. Craig↗

Robust fixed order dynamic compensation for large space structure control

A simple formulation for designing fixed order dynamic compensators which are robust to both uncertainty at the plant input and structured uncertainty in the plant dynamics is presented. The emphasis is on designing low order compensators for systems of high order. The formulation is done in an output feedback setting which exploits an observer canonical form to represent the compensator dynamics. The formulation also precludes the use of direct feedback of the plant output. The main contribution lies in defining a method for penalizing the states of the plant and of the compensator, and for choosing the distribution on initial conditions so that the loop transfer matrix approximates that of a full state design. To improve robustness to parameter uncertainty, the formulation avoids the introduction of sensitivity states, which has led to complex formulations in earlier studies where only structured uncertainty has been considered.

Calise, Anthony J.↗

Learning the Task Management Space of an Aircraft Approach Model

Validating models of airspace operations is a particular challenge. These models are often aimed at finding and exploring safety violations, and aim to be accurate representations of real-world behavior. However, the rules governing the behavior are quite complex: nonlinear physics, operational modes, human behavior, and stochastic environmental concerns all determine the responses of the system. In this paper, we present a study on aircraft runway approaches as modeled in Georgia Tech's Work Models that Compute (WMC) simulation. We use a new learner, Genetic-Active Learning for Search-Based Software Engineering (GALE) to discover the Pareto frontiers defined by cognitive structures. These cognitive structures organize the prioritization and assignment of tasks of each pilot during approaches. We discuss the benefits of our approach, and also discuss future work necessary to enable uncertainty quantification.

Validation↗

Overview of Recent EAST Testing, Modeling & Analysis

Shock Layer Radiation at NASA Ames - Background: Complex aerothermal and thermochemical phenomena of planetary entry define convective and radiative heating. A spacecraft's TPS (Thermal Protective System) mitigates heat transfer to substructure. Successful TPS design relies on verifiable characterization of these phenomena in the anticipated flight environment. - Approach: EAST (Electric Arc Shock Tube) [facility at Ames] simulates high-enthalpy, real-gas phenomena encountered by hypersonic vehicles entering planetary atmospheres by spectrally imaging the flow behind a moving shock wave. - Goal: Validate aerothermal models (DPLR (Data Parallel Line Relaxation Code) and NEQAIR (Nonequilibrium Radiative Transport and Spectra Program)), inform model improvements, reduce uncertainty and quantify design uncertainties. - Recent Relevant Projects: MSL (Mars Science Laboratory) & Mars 2020, InSight, OSIRIS-REx (Origins Spectral Interpretation Resource Identification Security Regolith Explorer), Orion EFT-1 (Exploration Flight-1) and EM-1 (Exploration Mission-1) and New Frontiers.

Brandis, Aaron↗

Mission to Planet Earth Strategic Enterprise Plan 1996-2002

Mission to Planet Earth's (MTPE's) first Strategic Enterprise Plan, issued in May 1995, defined the Agency's major goals and objectives as well as constraints. This update of the Strategic Enterprise Plan identifies the following major changes: a focused Science Research Plan that integrates space-based and in situ observational critical science to address critical science uncertainties; a technology infusion plan to reduce the cost of future missions; a series of flight opportunities to infuse new science into the overall program; and a tighter coupling between NASA and NOAA to reduce costs and to improve the overall program. Three important new initiatives are also under development and are described briefly in this plan: MTPE Education Strategy, MTPE Commercial Strategy, and an emerging concept for an Integrated Global Observing Strategy. This first update to the MTPE Strategic Enterprise Plan captures these new developments, and takes a significant step forward in planning this complex Earth system science endeavor. The plan and other information on MTPE may be viewed via the Internet at http://www.hq.nasa.gov/office/mtpe/.

Source record↗

Development and Use of Engineering Standards for Computational Fluid Dynamics for Complex Aerospace Systems

Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) and other advanced modeling and simulation (M&S) methods are increasingly relied on for predictive performance, reliability and safety of engineering systems. Analysts, designers, decision makers, and project managers, who must depend on simulation, need practical techniques and methods for assessing simulation credibility. The AIAA Guide for Verification and Validation of Computational Fluid Dynamics Simulations (AIAA G-077-1998 (2002)), originally published in 1998, was the first engineering standards document available to the engineering community for verification and validation (V&V) of simulations. Much progress has been made in these areas since 1998. The AIAA Committee on Standards for CFD is currently updating this Guide to incorporate in it the important developments that have taken place in V&V concepts, methods, and practices, particularly with regard to the broader context of predictive capability and uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods and approaches. This paper will provide an overview of the changes and extensions currently underway to update the AIAA Guide. Specifically, a framework for predictive capability will be described for incorporating a wide range of error and uncertainty sources identified during the modeling, verification, and validation processes, with the goal of estimating the total prediction uncertainty of the simulation. The Guide's goal is to provide a foundation for understanding and addressing major issues and concepts in predictive CFD. However, this Guide will not recommend specific approaches in these areas as the field is rapidly evolving. It is hoped that the guidelines provided in this paper, and explained in more detail in the Guide, will aid in the research, development, and use of CFD in engineering decision-making.

Lee, Hyung B.↗

Advances in Land Data Assimilation Systems

Assimilation of remotely sensed land surface observations into regional to global scale numerical models have the potential to significantly advance our ability, to assess, understand, and predict surface water, energy, and carbon cycles. This session seeks to assess the state-of-the-art in data assimilation methods for integrating land surface remote sensing and modeling, with a focus on practical applications and techniques. Assimilated land surface variables of interest include (but are not limited to, soil moisture, surface temperature, snowpack, streamflow, vegetation dynamics, and carbon storage. Contributions describing the development of practical land surface data assimilation methods, multivariate land surface data assimilation strategies, evaluation of the required accuracy and resolution of remote sensing observations, the effects of scale, process complexity, and uncertainty on data assimilation, and the optimal treatment of model and observation errors are encouraged.

Houser, Paul R.↗

Numerical Simulation of No Vent Chill and Fill of a Large Liquid Hydrogen Tank

On orbit transfer of cryogenic liquids is necessary for many future space missions. The techniques required to transfer cryogens in micro gravity are quite different from ground system applications. In normal gravity, cryogenic tanks are usually filled from the bottom at nearly atmospheric pressure. The vapor generated due to heat transfer from warm tank walls, is allowed to vent from the top of the tank while the tank is being filled. If the normal gravity technique is used on orbit, the uncertainty of liquid and vapor distributions in unsettled condition may result in dumping of large amounts of liquid propellant overboard. The Vented Chill and No Vent Fill (VCNVF) process is a methodology [1] used to reduce propellant loss by holding the vent valve open during initial wall chilldown, preventing over-pressurization of the tank and stalling of the incoming flow, but closing the tank vent valve after chilling the tank wall sufficiently. An accurate simulation of no vent tank chill and fill is necessary to estimate the amount of propellant necessary to chill the tank, determine the maximum sustainable flowrate to fill the tank without stalling, and establish a timeline for the filling process. Numerical modeling of filling a cryogenic tank is complex because the flow is two-phase and the process involves both boiling and condensation with heat transfer between solid and fluid. In recent years, progress has been made to develop a numerical modeling technique [2,3,4] that has been verified by comparing with the test data from a small flight tank using liquid nitrogen [5]. The purpose of the present paper is to apply this technique in a larger tank with liquid hydrogen and compare with the test data of Chato [1]. The K-site Test Facility [1], shown in Figure 1, consists of a Test Tank, spray system, instrumentation, and the vacuum chamber. The test tank selected was ellipsoidal with an 87 inch major diameter and a 1.2 to 1 major to minor axis ratio. The two ends are joined by a short 1.5 inch cylindrical section. The tank is made of 2219 aluminum chemically milled to a nominal thickness of 0.087 inches. The tank weighs 329.25 pounds, and the tank volume is 175 ft 3 . The GFSSP model of the Test Tank is shown in Figure 2. Node 13 is a boundary node that represents the supply tank which is supplying liquid hydrogen at a given pressure and temperature. The total measured flowrate is evenly distributed through Branches 131 through 139. Nodes 1 through 9 represent the test tank and they are connected with metal solid nodes 14 through 22 through fluid-to-solid conductors that allow convective heat transfer between the solid and fluid nodes. The predicted tank pressure, filling rate, wall temperature and fluid temperature will be compared with test data.

Alok Majumdar↗

Addressing and Presenting Quality of Satellite Data via Web-Based Services

With the recent attention to climate change and proliferation of remote-sensing data utilization, climate model and various environmental monitoring and protection applications have begun to increasingly rely on satellite measurements. Research application users seek good quality satellite data, with uncertainties and biases provided for each data point. However, different communities address remote sensing quality issues rather inconsistently and differently. We describe our attempt to systematically characterize, capture, and provision quality and uncertainty information as it applies to the NASA MODIS Aerosol Optical Depth data product. In particular, we note the semantic differences in quality/bias/uncertainty at the pixel, granule, product, and record levels. We outline various factors contributing to uncertainty or error budget; errors. Web-based science analysis and processing tools allow users to access, analyze, and generate visualizations of data while alleviating users from having directly managing complex data processing operations. These tools provide value by streamlining the data analysis process, but usually shield users from details of the data processing steps, algorithm assumptions, caveats, etc. Correct interpretation of the final analysis requires user understanding of how data has been generated and processed and what potential biases, anomalies, or errors may have been introduced. By providing services that leverage data lineage provenance and domain-expertise, expert systems can be built to aid the user in understanding data sources, processing, and the suitability for use of products generated by the tools. We describe our experiences developing a semantic, provenance-aware, expert-knowledge advisory system applied to NASA Giovanni web-based Earth science data analysis tool as part of the ESTO AIST-funded Multi-sensor Data Synergy Advisor project.

Leptoukh, Gregory↗

B33C-0612: Evaluation of Simulated Biospheric Carbon Dioxide Fluxes and Atmospheric Concentrations Using Global in Situ Observations

Atmospheric mixing ratios of carbon dioxide (CO2) are largely controlled by anthropogenic emission sources and biospheric sources/sinks. Global biospheric fluxes of CO2 are controlled by complex processes facilitating the exchange of carbon between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere. These processes which play a key role in these terrestrial ecosystem-atmosphere carbon exchanges are currently not fully understood, resulting in large uncertainties in the quantification of biospheric CO2 fluxes. Current models with these inherent deficiencies have difficulties simulating the global carbon cycle with high accuracy. We are developing a new modeling platform, GEOS-Chem-CASA by integrating the year-specific NASA-CASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration - Carnegie Ames Stanford Approach) biosphere model with the GEOS-Chem (Goddard Earth Observation System-Chemistry) chemical transport model to improve the simulation of atmosphere-terrestrial ecosystem carbon exchange. We use NASA-CASA to explicitly represent the exchange of CO2 between terrestrial ecosystem and atmosphere by replacing the baseline GEOS-Chem land net CO2 flux and forest biomass burning CO2 emissions. We will present the estimation and evaluation of these "bottom-up" land CO2 fluxes, simulated atmospheric mixing ratios, and forest disturbance changes over the last decade. In addition, we will present our initial comparison of atmospheric column-mean dry air mole fraction of CO2 predicted by the model and those retrieved from NASA's OCO-2 (Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2) satellite instrument and model-predicted surface CO2 mixing ratios with global in situ observations. This evaluation is the first step necessary for our future work planned to constrain the estimates of biospheric carbon fluxes through "top-down" inverse modeling, which will improve our understanding of the processes controlling atmosphere-terrestrial ecosystem greenhouse gas exchanges, especially over regions which lack in situ observations.

in situ observations↗

Collaboration in Complex Medical Systems

Improving our understanding of collaborative work in complex environments has the potential for developing effective supporting technologies, personnel training paradigms, and design principles for multi-crew workplaces. USing a sophisticated audio-video-data acquisition system and a corresponding analysis system, the researchers at University of Maryland have been able to study in detail team performance during real trauma patient resuscitation. The first study reported here was on coordination mechanisms and on characteristics of coordination breakdowns. One of the key findings was that implicit communications were an important coordination mechanism (e.g. through the use of shared workspace and event space). The second study was on the sources of uncertainty during resuscitation. Although incoming trauma patients' status is inherently uncertain, the findings suggest that much of the uncertainty felt by care providers was related to communication and coordination. These two studies demonstrate the value of and need for creating a real-life laboratory for studying team performance with the use of comprehensive and integrated data acquisition and analysis tools.

Xiao, Yan↗

Probabilistic Structural Analysis Program

NASA/NESSUS 6.2c is a general-purpose, probabilistic analysis program that computes probability of failure and probabilistic sensitivity measures of engineered systems. Because NASA/NESSUS uses highly computationally efficient and accurate analysis techniques, probabilistic solutions can be obtained even for extremely large and complex models. Once the probabilistic response is quantified, the results can be used to support risk-informed decisions regarding reliability for safety-critical and one-of-a-kind systems, as well as for maintaining a level of quality while reducing manufacturing costs for larger-quantity products. NASA/NESSUS has been successfully applied to a diverse range of problems in aerospace, gas turbine engines, biomechanics, pipelines, defense, weaponry, and infrastructure. This program combines state-of-the-art probabilistic algorithms with general-purpose structural analysis and lifting methods to compute the probabilistic response and reliability of engineered structures. Uncertainties in load, material properties, geometry, boundary conditions, and initial conditions can be simulated. The structural analysis methods include non-linear finite-element methods, heat-transfer analysis, polymer/ceramic matrix composite analysis, monolithic (conventional metallic) materials life-prediction methodologies, boundary element methods, and user-written subroutines. Several probabilistic algorithms are available such as the advanced mean value method and the adaptive importance sampling method. NASA/NESSUS 6.2c is structured in a modular format with 15 elements.

Pai, Shantaram S.↗

Delta Method Application for the Correlation of IR Detector Thermal Parasitic Loads with Statistically Accurate Results

The Linear Etalon Imaging Spectral Array (LEISA) is a cryogenic IR detector that is passively cooled below 110K. LEISA is part of the L’Ralph instrument, which is going on the Lucy mission, with planned flyby’s of the Trojan asteroids around 5.5 AU. One of the primary thermal challenges is to successfully quantify each significant parasitic heat flow value with statistical certainty.Simulation of flight-like thermal environments and correlation of thermal models is an important part of this challenge, which can be critical for thermally sensitive systems such as cryogenic detectors that are passively cooled. It is common practice during TVAC to achieve several thermal balance points and then to correlate several design variables in order to achieve the closest match to all balance points tested. This approach lends itself to high levels of uncertainty in the correlated values due to the cumulative effect of absolute temperature uncertainty and differences between the sensors used for the measurement. Accuracy can be improved with the use of more accurate sensors, by calibrating all sensors with respect to each other, and by using Zero-Q methodologies, all of which add cost and complexity to the test.The Delta Method uses the difference in temperature caused by the changes in the boundary conditions to calculate heat flows and/or thermal resistances across temperature differentials. This eliminates the problem of high uncertainties with absolute temperature measurements, and yields statistically accurate results down to the sensor resolution of 1mK at < 100K, by taking the sensor’s calibration errors out of the equation. During testing, this method relies on parametric variations around an initial balance point, by varying the boundary conditions of the different parasitic heat sources. The Delta Method, as well as its application on the LEISA thermal test, will be discussed in detail.

Daniel G. Bae↗

SIRIUS: Simulation Infrastructure for Research on Interoperating Unmanned Systems

This paper presents the Simulation Infrastructure for Research on Interoperating Unmanned Systems (SIRIUS), a research framework for simulation and analysis of future conceptual Urban Air Mobility (UAM) operations. SIRIUS is being developed under the auspices of the NASA Air Traffic Management eXploration project, UAM subproject (ATM-X UAM). SIRIUS provides an intuitive, highly configurable graphical user interface to design complex traffic scenarios and airspace configurations representative of conceptual UAM operations. Aircraft simulated with SIRIUS can be equipped with flight-tested capabilities for detect and avoid (DAA), geofencing, distributed merging and spacing, path conformance, and path planning while executing time-constrained, 4D trajectories generated by a UAM ground operations system. Central to the design of the SIRIUS simulation framework is the capability to evaluate the integration and interoperability of ground-based separation services (e.g., strategic separation) with extended DAA functionality (e.g., path monitoring, separation provision, merging and spacing, etc.) The simulation environment also supports modelling of wind, navigation, and sensor uncertainties, as well as communication delays. SIRIUS enables distributed simulation of large-scale scenarios. An interactive graphical analysis capability helps isolate, visualize, and compare relevant vehicle state data and widely used measures of performance metrics across multiple scenarios.

Andrew Peters↗

Acquisition and processing of data for isotope-ratio-monitoring mass spectrometry

Methods are described for continuous monitoring of signals required for precise analyses of 13C, 18O, and 15N in gas streams containing varying quantities of CO2 and N2. The quantitative resolution (i.e. maximum performance in the absence of random errors) of these methods is adequate for determination of isotope ratios with an uncertainty of one part in 10(5); the precision actually obtained is often better than one part in 10(4). This report describes data-processing operations including definition of beginning and ending points of chromatographic peaks and quantitation of background levels, allowance for effects of chromatographic separation of isotopically substituted species, integration of signals related to specific masses, correction for effects of mass discrimination, recognition of drifts in mass spectrometer performance, and calculation of isotopic delta values. Characteristics of a system allowing off-line revision of parameters used in data reduction are described and an algorithm for identification of background levels in complex chromatograms is outlined. Effects of imperfect chromatographic resolution are demonstrated and discussed and an approach to deconvolution of signals from coeluting substances described.

NASA Discipline Exobiology↗

A SUBLIME 3D Model for Cometary Coma Emission: The Hypervolatile-rich Comet C/2016 R2 (PanSTARRS)

The coma of comet C/2016 R2 (PanSTARRS) is one of the most chemically peculiar ever observed, in particular due to its extremely high CO/H2O and N(+2)/H2O ratios, and unusual trace volatile abundances. However, the complex shape of its CO emission lines, as well as uncertainties in the coma structure and excitation, has lead to ambiguities in the total CO production rate. We performed high-resolution, spatially, spectrally, and temporally resolved CO observations using the James Clerk Maxwell Telescope and Submillimeter Array to elucidate the outgassing behavior of C/2016 R2. Results are analyzed using a new, time-dependent, three-dimensional radiative transfer code (SUBlimating gases in LIME; SUBLIME, based on the open-source version of the LIne Modeling Engine), incorporating for the first time, accurate state-to-state collisional rate coefficients for the CO–CO system. The total CO production rate was found to be in the range of (3.8 − 7.6) × 10^(28) per s between 2018 January 13 and February 1 (at r(H) = 2.8–2.9 au), with a mean value of (5.3 ± 0.6) × 10^(28) per s. The emission is concentrated in a near-sunward jet, with a half-opening angle of ∼62° and an outflow velocity of 0.51 ± 0.01 km/s, compared to 0.25 ± 0.01 km/s in the ambient (and nightside) coma. Evidence was also found for an extended source of CO emission, possibly due to icy grain sublimation around 1.2 × 10^(5) km from the nucleus. Based on the coma molecular abundances, we propose that the nucleus ices of C/2016 R2 can be divided into a rapidly sublimating apolar phase, rich in CO, CO2, N2, and CH3OH, and a predominantly frozen (or less abundant), polar phase containing more H2O, CH4, H2CO, and HCN.

Martin Andrew Cordiner↗

Mars Ascent Vehicle-First Stage Motor

This project is development effort of a first stage solid motor based on a two-stage solid motor Mars Ascent Vehicle (MAV) design for the robotic Mars Sample Return (MSR) mission (fig. 1). The MSR MAV has been studied for decades and multiple concepts have been shown to meet the mission objectives as posed.1 However, there remains significant uncertainty with the MAV requirements. The sample container and sample cache itself is immature. Additionally, MAV-specific requirements ranging from full three-axis controlled and strict communication requirements to minimal capability concepts are still under consideration. Given the maturity of the overall mission requirements, the MAV has been limited to a large number of parametric analyses and paper studies. Recently, a Jet Propulsion Laboratory study highlighted the flexibility of a two-stage solid motor concept. The MAV itself is driven by the constraints of the Entry, Decent, and Landing (EDL) system. Within the EDL constraints, there is a range of MAV options ranging in complexity from simple spun upper stage options to higher capability three-axis controlled solutions. There are also options to trade the ratio of mission (Delta)V between the first and second stage. Finally, sensitivity studies also indicated that solid motors with a high percentage of off-load flexability only had minor impact on the total system mass over a single point design optimized motor. This flexibility in the first stage motor has allowed NASA to mature the design of the motor beyond parametric analyses and start to address known design challenges of the motor.

Dankanich, John↗