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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 271 records · Page 15

Enhancing supply resilience for critical materials: case study of gallium supply in the United States

Accelerating energy technology development will increase demand for critical raw materials, such as gallium, that enable clean energy technologies. Processing of gallium is concentrated in mainland China (98 % of global production in 2023), resulting in high supply risks for importing countries. To investigate pathways for more resilient supply, we develop a material flow analysis and apply it to the United States, showing the impacts of future domestic primary raw material production and end-of-life (EoL) product recycling on reducing import reliance of raw gallium metal. We complement this analysis with a techno-economic assessment of North American gallium production costs under various demand growth scenarios. Our results indicate that sufficient domestic feedstocks exist to meet U.S. demand under most scenarios by 2035, while EoL recycling can supply up to 50 % under a low-demand growth scenario. Domestic primary production shows significant cost advantages over gallium recycling.

Cost analysis↗

Acceleration of the particle-in-cell code Osiris with graphics processing units

Fully relativistic particle-in-cell (PIC) simulations are crucial for advancing our knowledge of plasma physics. Modern supercomputers based on graphics processing units (GPUs) offer the potential to perform PIC simulations of unprecedented scale, but require robust and feature-rich codes that can fully leverage their computational resources. In this work, this demand is addressed by adding GPU acceleration to the PIC code Osiris. An overview of the algorithm, which features a CUDA extension to the underlying Fortran architecture, is given. Detailed performance benchmarks for thermal plasmas are presented, which demonstrate excellent weak scaling on NERSC's Perlmutter supercomputer and high levels of absolute performance. The robustness of the code to model a variety of physical systems is demonstrated via simulations of Weibel filamentation and laser-wakefield acceleration run with dynamic load balancing. Finally, measurements and analysis of energy consumption are provided that indicate that the GPU algorithm is up to ~14 times faster and ~7 times more energy efficient than the optimized CPU algorithm on a node-to-node basis. The described development addresses the PIC simulation community's computational demands both by contributing a robust and performant GPU-accelerated PIC code and by providing insight into efficient use of GPU hardware.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Projected evolution of droughts and human exposure in the contiguous United States under SSP5-8.5: a regional downscaling perspective

The increasingly unpredictable and extreme weather patterns under a warming climate underscore the urgency of accurate regional assessments of future drought risk. This study evaluates the projected drought evolution in the contiguous United States under the high-emission shared socioeconomic pathway 5–8.5 climate scenario for the coming decades. Using a multi-model ensemble of six Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 global climate models combined with dynamical downscaling techniques, we analyzed near-term (2020–2039) and mid-term (2040–2059) drought patterns using the self-calibrating palmer drought severity index (ScPDSI), the standardized precipitation index (SPI-12), and the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI-12). Results reveal a widespread increase in abnormally dry (D0) and moderate drought (D1) conditions, particularly in urban areas, while severe (D2), extreme (D3), and exceptional (D4) droughts are expected to become less common in many regions. Meanwhile, persistent and intensifying droughts are projected in the western and southwestern U.S., driven by long-term soil moisture deficits. The ScPDSI projects that 1.1 million urban residents will be affected by D0 conditions in 2050, while SPI-12 suggests a decrease in the total affected populations after 2040. ScPDSI indicates prolonged droughts in the West, and SPI-12 captures transient variability. Although the total drought-exposed population is expected to decrease, urban areas will continue to bear a greater burden, particularly for mild droughts (D0, D1). These findings highlight a shift toward more frequent mild droughts, fewer severe droughts, and persistent drying in the Southwest, emphasizing the need for region-specific adaptation strategies.

CMIP6↗

Compressive strain turns 𝑠 ± - into 𝑑-wave pairing in a one-unit-cell La 3 ⁢Ni 2 ⁢O 7 thin film via substrate-induced hole doping

Motivated by recent reports of ambient-pressure superconductivity in La 3 ⁢Ni 2⁢ O 7 films grown on LaSrAlO 4 , we investigate the superconducting instability in a one-unit-cell (1UC) thin film using ab initio and random-phase approximation techniques. Compared to the high-pressure bulk system, the ratio of interlayer 𝑑 3⁢𝑧 2 −𝑟 2 hopping to intralayer 𝑑 𝑥 2 −𝑦 2 hopping is suppressed in the 1UC thin film, and the crystal-field splitting of the 𝑒 𝑔 orbitals is increased. Here, our calculation indicates that spin-fluctuation-driven pairing correlations are weak for the stoichiometric case at ambient pressure, but increase significantly under hole doping. The leading pairing symmetry is also found to change by hole doping. Specifically, we obtain a leading 𝑑 𝑥 2 −𝑦 2 pairing state at moderate hole doping, followed by a 𝑑 𝑥⁢𝑦 state at higher doping. These states are driven by intraband spin-fluctuation scattering within the 𝛾 hole pocket centered around the 𝑀 point, and arise primarily from states in the Ni layer farther from the substrate. These results strongly suggest that the thin-film superconducting samples are hole-doped and that pairing in this system predominantly arises in the layer, as opposed to the interlayer pairing in the pressurized bulk system.

Zhang, Yang [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL),↗

The Carbon Budget of Land Conversion: Sugarcane Expansion and Implications for a Sustainable Bioenergy Landscape in Southeastern United States

The expansion of sugarcane onto land currently occupied by improved (IMP) and semi-native (SN) pastures will reshape the U.S. bioenergy landscape. We combined biometric, ground-based and eddy covariance methods to investigate the impact of sugarcane expansion across subtropical Florida on the carbon (C) budget over a 3-year rotation. With 2.3- and 5.1-fold increase in productivity over IMP and SN pastures, sugarcane displayed a C use efficiency (CUE; i.e., fraction of gross C uptake allocated to plant growth) of 0.59, well above that of pastures (0.31–0.23). Sugarcane also had greater C allocation to aboveground productivity and hence, harvestable biomass relative to IMP and SN. Cane heterotrophic respiration over the 3-year rotation (903 ± 335 gC m −2 year −1 ) was 1% and 14% higher than IMP and SN pastures, respectively. These soil C losses responded largely to disturbance over the first year after conversion (1510 ± 227 gC m −2 year −1 ) but declined in subsequent years to an average 599 ± 90 gC m −2 year −1 —well below those of IMP (933 ± 140 gC m −2 year −1 ) and SN (759 ± 114 gC m −2 year −1 ) pastures—despite a significant 40%–61% increase in soil C inputs. Soil C inputs, however, shifted from root-dominated in pastures to litter-dominated in sugarcane, with only 5% C allocation to roots. Reduced decomposition rates in sugarcane were likely driven by changes in the recalcitrance and distribution rather than the size of the newly incorporated soil C pool. As a result, we observed a rapid shift in the net ecosystem C balance (NECB) of sugarcane from a large source immediately following conversion to approaching the net C losses of IMP pastures only 2 years after conversion. The environmental cost of converting pasture to sugarcane underscores the importance of implementing management practices to harness the soil C storage potential of sugarcane in advancing a sustainable bioeconomy in Southeastern United States.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Life‐cycle greenhouse gas emissions associated with nuclear power generation in the United States

Under the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act, tax credits of up to $3/kgH 2 are available to hydrogen producers if they generate emissions at levels below 0.45 kgCO 2 e/kgH 2 , spurring producers to explore how hydrogen production via electrolysis using electricity generated by nuclear power may qualify for such tax credits. With uranium as a primary fuel for nuclear power plants (NPPs) and no on-site emissions, the upstream emissions associated with nuclear fuel supply chains largely determine the carbon intensity of nuclear energy. Using the GREET (Greenhouse gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Technologies) model, we evaluated the life-cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of uranium production and the use of uranium to generate electricity in light water reactor (LWR) NPPs. We evaluated the process chemicals and energy inputs throughout the nuclear fuel supply chain to identify the major contributors to nuclear fuel cycle GHG emissions. Such emissions are estimated at 3.0 gCO 2 e/kWh at NPPs in the United States. The greatest share of nuclear fuel cycle GHG emissions—comprising 53% of total emissions—are associated with electricity consumption throughout the fuel supply chain. We extended the analysis to include an evaluation of the carbon intensity of H 2 production via electrolysis using nuclear power from LWRs. Finally, we examined the impact of future (2035 and 2050) electricity supply chain scenarios on nuclear fuel cycle GHG emissions. Our analysis revealed a decrease of 33% (2035) and 46% (2050) in the carbon intensity of nuclear electricity relative to current nuclear fuel cycle GHG emissions.

greenhouse gas emissions↗

Frequency-Nadir-Constrained Unit Commitment for Low-Inertia, High-IBR Island Power Systems [Slides]

The process of energy decarbonization in island power systems is accelerated due to the swift integration of inverter-based renewable energy resources (IBRs). The unique features of such systems, including rapid frequency changes resulting from potential generation outages or imbalances due to the unpredictability of renewable power, pose a significant challenge in maintaining the frequency nadir without external support. This paper presents a unit commitment (UC) model with data-driven frequency nadir constraints, including either frequency nadir or minimum inertia requirements, helping to limit frequency deviations after significant generator outages. The constraints are formulated using a linear regression model that takes advantage of real-world, year-long generation scheduling and dynamic simulation data. The efficacy of the proposed UC model is verified through a year-long simulation in an actual island power system using historical weather data. The alternative minimum inertia constraint, derived from actual system operation assumptions, is also evaluated. Findings demonstrate that the proposed frequency nadir constraint notably improves the system's frequency nadir under high photovoltaic (PV) penetration levels, albeit with a slight increase in generation costs, when compared to the alternative minimum inertia constraint.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

A parcel-level evaluation of distributed wind opportunity in the contiguous United States

This study examines the potential for distributed wind (DW) energy across the contiguous United States, leveraging advancements in the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's distributed wind model, dWind. The novel modeling approach described here utilizes a high-resolution dataset and analyzes over 150 million parcels, a significant improvement from prior methods that extrapolated results from a smaller random sample. This achievement is enabled through key model performance improvements, such as transitioning to multiprocessing, which reduces runtime by 97 %. This optimized, high-resolution approach allows the inspection of technology deployment potential and impact on a variety of scales tailored to individual properties and regions. The results here align with prior work showing substantial opportunity for energy generation using DW technologies. Key findings reveal a substantial increase from prior results in estimated technical and economic potential for DW. Metrics tuned to highlight economic potential also show increased incentives supporting rural adoption. Results are spatially aggregated for usability and published via the U.S. Department of Energy Wind Data Portal and a custom scenario visualization platform, aiding policymakers, industry, and property owners in assessing DW viability across various scenarios and spatial scales.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Investigating the opioid epidemic across the United States: Associations between county-level characteristics and overdose mortality

The opioid crisis remains a critical public health challenge in the United States. Despite national efforts that reduced opioid prescribing by nearly 44% between 2011 and 2021, opioid overdose deaths more than tripled during the same period. This alarming trend reflects a major shift in the crisis, with illegal opioids now driving the majority of overdose deaths instead of prescription opioids. Although supply-side factors fueling this transition have been widely studied, the structural and community-level conditions that shape overdose mortality are less well understood. To help address this gap, this study has three primary objectives: (1) overcome structural gaps in national data to construct a complete nationwide county-level dataset from 2010 to 2022; (2) using data analysis, identify and investigate spatiotemporal anomalies in overdose mortality; and (3) using two machine-learning models, quantify the importance of thirteen social vulnerability variables in predicting overdose mortality. Our results identify unemployment and limited vehicle access as key county-level predictors of overdose mortality. Higher levels of these vulnerabilities are associated with elevated mortality, whereas lower levels are associated with reduced mortality. These findings highlight factors that may be relevant for public health planning and policy prioritization within the context of the opioid crisis.

Anomaly analysis↗

Enabling Multireference Calculations on Multimetallic Systems with Graphic Processing Units

Modeling multimetallic systems efficiently enables faster prediction of desirable chemical properties and the design of new materials. This work describes an initial implementation for performing multireference wave function method localized active-space self-consistent field (LASSCF) calculations through the use of multiple graphics processing units (GPUs) to accelerate time-to-solution. Density fitting is leveraged to reduce memory requirements, and we demonstrate the ability to fully utilize multi-GPU compute nodes. Performance improvements of 5–10x in total application runtime were observed in LASSCF calculations for multimetallic catalyst systems up to 1200 AOs and an active space of (22e,40o) using up to four NVIDIA A100 GPUs. Furthermore, written with performance portability in mind, a comparable performance is also observed in early runs on the Aurora exascale system using Intel Max Series GPUs.

Algorithms↗

TRIZ-Based Design Improvement for Facilitating Transmission Control Unit Remanufacturing

Design for Remanufacturing (DfRem) centers on enhancing product design and operations to facilitate remanufacturing while increasing both economic and environmental sustainability. DfRem requires a comprehensive understanding of product characteristics, production conditions, and operational constraints. Thus, DfRem requires a systematic methodology to identify and implement alternative designs. Among many critical steps in remanufacturing, disassembly is essential because it directly supports remanufacturing by separation of product components for cleaning, inspection, and other subsequent process steps. This study proposes a TRIZ-based framework to improve product design for disassembly in support of remanufacturing. The framework is applied to a transmission control unit (TCU) case study. The current TCU design prevents remanufacturing due to the sealant-based component joinery, which complicates disassembly and risks damaging the printed circuit board (PCB). After defining technical contradictions for the TCU product design and reviewing the suggested TRIZ principles to solve the conflicts, a cantilever snap-fit design alternative is developed. The economic feasibility of the snap-fit design is assessed by comparing the current and snap-fit design costs for three life cycles. The cost analysis demonstrates that the cost of the snap-fit design remains the same as the current design. Additionally, the snap-fit design offers substantial cost savings for three life cycles compared to the current design. We demonstrate how snap-fit design supports both environmental and economic sustainability.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Benchmarking Near-Surface Winds in the HRRR Analyses Using Multisource Observations over Complex Terrain in the Southeastern United States

Wind energy plays a crucial role in sustainable power generation, yet its full potential in the southeast United States (SEUS) remains underexplored. This study advances wind resource assessment in the SEUS using existing regional modeling and multisource observations. We find that terrain complexity, influenced by orography and forest canopy, significantly impacts the accuracy of modeled wind speed. While the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model effectively simulates wind profiles over flat, nonforested terrain, larger errors are produced above forest canopies, and particularly for those stands in hilly and mountainous terrain where there are no observations aloft that could be used by HRRR’s data assimilation software. Seasonal variations, e.g., changes in the leaf area index, further complicate the relationship between terrain complexity and simulation errors. Here, our findings emphasize the critical need for comprehensive wind profile measurements, extending from below the canopy to height above the canopy and through the lower planetary boundary layer, to fully quantify model performance over and near forests, and for improving wind resource assessment, planning, and management. This study provides valuable insights not only for further model development but also for future field campaign deployment with the goal of further improving our understanding of wind resources in the region.

Complex terrain↗

Comparisons of Montane Snow Water Equivalent Projections: Calculating Total Snow Mass in Regions with Projection Agreement and Divergence in the Western United States

Montane snowpack is a vital source of water in the western United States. Here, we use a large-ensemble approach to evaluate the agreement across 124 snow water equivalent (SWE) projections with statistically downscaled forcing between end-of-century (2076–95) and early twenty-first century (2106–35) periods. Comparisons were performed on dates corresponding with the end of winter (15 April) and midspring snowmelt (15 May) in five western U.S. domains. Using 1) the percent change to end-of-century SWE across different ensembles of snow projections and 2) the shift between early twenty-first century and end-of-century SWE distributions for each snow projection, we identified relationships between projections that were consistent across each domain. In low to midelevations, end-of-century SWE decreases were 48% and larger on 15 April. These regions had projected changes to SWE that were both high confidence and in relative agreement across projections. Despite this, the majority of 15 April SWE volume existed in higher elevations where the magnitude and direction (positive or negative) of SWE changes were most uncertain. The results of this study show that large-ensemble approaches can be used to measure coherence between snow projections and identify 1) the highest confidence changes to future snow water resources and 2) the locations and periods where and when improvements to snow projections would most benefit estimates of future snow water resources.

Climate models↗

Impact of hydropower availability on resource adequacy of the United States western interconnection

Hydropower is a key energy source in the western interconnection of the United States, comprising about 25% of the annual installed nameplate capacity in 2020. However, its generation is increasingly impacted by changing hydrological conditions, operational constraints, environmental factors, water availability, and aging dam infrastructure. Assessing hydropower availability and resource adequacy is valuable for shaping energy policies and infrastructure requirements. In this study we evaluate the sensitivity of resource adequacy in the Western Interconnection to the unavailability of hydropower plants, under a wide-ranging set of 16,384 hydropower loss scenarios derived from a combination of 14 major hydrologic regions. Although a complete loss of hydropower capacity in any region is unlikely, studying such scenarios helps in identifying hydrologic regions most critical for maintaining resource adequacy. So, we identify key hydrologic regions with disproportionately large adequacy impacts relative to their installed hydropower capacity and study compounding effects between regions using classification and regression trees. Even after controlling for total installed capacity, we find that hydropower resources in the Pacific Northwest contribute the most to interconnection-wide adequacy outcomes, with resources in Northern California and the Desert Southwest providing more moderate incremental contributions.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

The 10 September 2025 M w 4.1 Earthquake in Northeastern Utah, United States: An Archetypal Continental Mantle Event

The 10 September 2025 M w 4.1 earthquake in northeastern Utah, United States, had a focal depth 68 km beneath sea level, which is ∼20–25 km greater than estimates of local crustal thickness, making it a rare example of a continental mantle earthquake (CME). The focal depth is well resolved from arrival-time inversion (nearest station ∼13 km away) and moment tensor inversion of regional waveforms. Similar to other CMEs in the Intermountain West, there were no obvious aftershocks or foreshocks, and the waveforms were enriched in high-frequency energy. Spectral modeling gives a stress drop of ∼80 MPa and a radiation efficiency of ∼0.08, albeit with large uncertainties. The high stress drop and low radiation efficiency are consistent with a dissipative source process such as thermal runaway. Also similar to previous Intermountain West CMEs, the event occurred along the boundary of the Archean Wyoming craton, where pressure–temperature conditions favor ductile deformation. We hypothesize that edge-driven or regional-scale mantle convection produces increased strain rates near the craton boundary that make either conventional brittle failure or thermal runaway feasible at relatively high pressure–temperature conditions. High conductivity inferred around the edge of the craton may suggest that fluids also contribute to CME occurrence.

Koper, Keith D. [Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT↗

Extending SST vanadis to Add SIMT Functional Units

Sandia National Laboratories is currently investigating scalable architectural simulation capabilities, with a focus on simulating and evaluating highly scalable supercomputers for high-performance computing applications. This exploration is driven by the shift toward more specialized forms of compute and the need for a more diverse set of accurate models. This project will explore the use of General-Purpose Graphical Processing Units (GPGPUs) in high-performance computing using both physical systems and new simulator models – traditional GPUs as well as tightly-coupled SIMT accelerators.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Introducing Low-Cost Pyrazine Unit into Terpolymer Enables High-Performance Polymer Solar Cells with Efficiency of 18.23%

Recently, a random ternary copolymerization strategy has become a promising and efficient approach to develop high-performance polymer donors for polymer solar cells (PSCs). Here, in this study, a low-cost electron-withdrawing unit, 2,5-bis(4-(2-ethylhexyl)thiophen-2-yl)pyrazine (PZ-T), is incorporated into the polymer backbone of PM6 as the third component, and three D-A 1 -D-A 2 type terpolymers PMZ-10, PMZ-20, and PMZ-30 are synthesized by the random copolymerization strategy, with the PZ-T proportion of 10%, 20%, and 30%, respectively. The terpolymers exhibit downshifted highest occupied molecular orbital energy levels than PM6, which is beneficial for obtaining higher open-circuit voltage (V oc ) of the PSCs with the polymer as a donor. Importantly, the PSCs based on PMZ-10:Y6 demonstrate efficient exciton dissociation, higher and balanced electron/hole mobilities, desirable aggregation, and high power conversion efficiency of 18.23%, which is the highest efficiency among the terpolymer-based PSCs so far. The results indicate that the ternary copolymerization strategy with PZ-T as the second A-unit is an efficient approach to further improve the photovoltaic performance and reduce the synthetic cost of the D-A copolymer donors.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Investigation of Stochastic Unit Commitment to Enable Advanced Flexibility Measures for High Shares of Solar PV

As the share of solar photovoltaics (PV) in the power system increases, there is a growing need for flexibility from multiple, possibly interdependent sources to adjust to PV's variability, uncertainty, and diurnal dependence. This paper investigates how stochastic unit commitment leveraging probabilistic solar forecasts can support other flexibility measures under high solar shares. We consider two flexibility measures relevant to day-ahead scheduling: battery energy time-shifting and solar ancillary service provision. Unit commitment and economic dispatch simulations are conducted on a realistic test system based on Texas using day-ahead solar trajectories. The benefits of the two flexibility measures are pronounced when the instantaneous solar share is high, offering cost savings of 10%-20% in the spring. For a Texas-sized system, this translates to hundreds of millions of dollars in cost savings once the installed PV capacity enables instantaneous solar shares regularly exceeding 40%. Using probabilistic forecasts also greatly increases the reliability of upward reserve provision from solar PV, reducing unserved reserves by 50%-100%. Both day-ahead forecast resolution and errors can impact system reliability at high solar shares, but the stochastic formulation has significant value, mitigating reliability impacts on over-forecast days.

ancillary services↗