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1978-1988 Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) Variability Trends

Total solar irradiance (TSI), normalized to the mean earth-sun distance, is analyzed to assess long-term solar variability which may affect climate. TSI data sets are reviewed primarily from the 1984-1999 Earth Radiation Budgets Satellite (ERBS), 1978-1993 Nimbus7, 1980-1989 Solar Maximum Mission (SMM), 19911998 Upper Atmospheric Research Satellite (UARS), and 1996-1998 Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO)/ Variability of solar IRradiance and Gravity Oscillations (VIRGO) Spacecraft missions. The data sets indicate that 1365 W/sq m [Watts per meter square] is the most likely TSI amplitude at minimum solar magnetic activity as indicated by minimum sunspot numbers. The TSI long-term variability component was found to vary with a period of approximately 10 years and with an amplitude of 2 W/sq m. An empirical TSI fit model, based upon 10.7-cm solar radio fluxes and prompt photometric sunspot indices, was used to characterize TSI variability. Comparisons among TSI measurements and empirical fit trends are reviewed as well as inconsistencies among current spacecraft TSI data set trends. The 1996-1998, SOHO/VIRGO measurement indicate stronger TSI increasing trends than those suggested by the corresponding ERBS and UARS measurement and by the empirical model fit. 1978-1999 TSI data sets are analyzed to identify the probable existence of another long-term TSI variability component.

Lee, Robert B., III↗

Impact of a Merged Precipitation Data on Global Soil Moisture Variability

Accurate soil moisture information has proved to be important to climate simulations and climate and weather forecasts. However, many difficulties exist that limit our understanding of soil moisture distribution and variability. One of them is the lack of accurate precipitation with appropriate spatial and temporal resolution. Precipitation as an input forcing to the land surface greatly influences soil moisture characteristics and variability. To improve precipitation data quality, an algorithm has been developed to generate a spatially and temporally continuous 3-hourly global precipitation data for the period of 1987 to present. This precipitation product is a combination of the precipitation from Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSMI) with the Goddard Earth Observing System-1 Data Assimilation System (GEOS-1 DAS) employing a Physical-space Statistical Analysis System (PSAS). In this study we investigate the impact of this merged/analyzed precipitation data on the global soil moisture variability using an Off-line Land-surface GEOS Assimilation (OLGA) system. Two OLGA integrations starting from 1987 to 1993 are performed forced with the analyzed and GEOS-1 DAS precipitation respectively. We examine the spatial and temporal characteristics of soil moisture variability in response to the analyzed precipitation. The influence of this merged precipitation on the soil moisture variability and regional hydrological budget is estimated throughout the comparison with the results forced with the GEOS-1 DAS precipitation only. In the OLGA the sut@-grid scale horizontal heterogeneity is explicitly represented on the tile space. This provides a means to assess the role of the surface moisture heterogeneity in the interaction with the surface atmosphere and surface hydrological budget, and to validate OLGA results at tile space with in situ observation. ABRACOS (Anglo-Brazilian Amazonian Climate Observation Study), FIFE (First ISLSCP Field Experiment) I and HAPEX data will be used in the validation.

Yang, Runhua↗

A Systematic Search for Short-term Variability of EGRET Sources

The 3rd EGRET Catalog contains 170 unidentified high-energy (E>100 MeV) gamma-ray sources, and there is great interest in the nature of these sources. One means of determining sources class is the study of flux variability on time scales of days; pulsars are believed to be stable on these scales while blazars are known to be highly variable. In addition, previous work has led to the discovery of 2CG 135+01 and GRO J1838-04, candidates for a new high-energy gamma-ray source class. These sources display transient behavior but cannot be associated with any known blazars. These considerations have led us to conduct a systematic search for short-term variability in EGRET data, covering all viewing periods through cycle 4. Three unidentified sources show some evidence of variability on short time scales; the source displaying the most convincing variability, 3EG J2006-2321, is not easily identified as a blazar.

Wallace, P. M.↗

Variability and Predictability of Land-Atmosphere Interactions: Observational and Modeling Studies

The overall goal of this project is to increase our understanding of seasonal to interannual variability and predictability of atmosphere-land interactions. The project objectives are to: 1. Document the low frequency variability in land surface features and associated water and energy cycles from general circulation models (GCMs), observations and reanalysis products. 2. Determine what relatively wet and dry years have in common on a region-by-region basis and then examine the physical mechanisms that may account for a significant portion of the variability. 3. Develop GCM experiments to examine the hypothesis that better knowledge of the land surface enhances long range predictability. This investigation is aimed at evaluating and predicting seasonal to interannual variability for selected regions emphasizing the role of land-atmosphere interactions. Of particular interest are the relationships between large, regional and local scales and how they interact to account for seasonal and interannual variability, including extreme events such as droughts and floods. North and South America, including the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment Continental International Project (GEWEX GCIP), MacKenzie, and LBA basins, are currently being emphasized. We plan to ultimately generalize and synthesize to other land regions across the globe, especially those pertinent to other GEWEX projects.

Roads, John↗

Modeling, Simulation, and Forecasting of Subseasonal Variability

A planning workshop on "Modeling, Simulation and Forecasting of Subseasonal Variability" was held in June 2003. This workshop was the first of a number of meetings planned to follow the NASA-sponsored workshop entitled "Prospects For Improved Forecasts Of Weather And Short-Term Climate Variability On Sub-Seasonal Time Scales" that was held April 2002. The 2002 workshop highlighted a number of key sources of unrealized predictability on subseasonal time scales including tropical heating, soil wetness, the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) [a.k.a Intraseasonal Oscillation (ISO)], the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the Pacific/North American (PNA) pattern. The overarching objective of the 2003 follow-up workshop was to proceed with a number of recommendations made from the 2002 workshop, as well as to set an agenda and collate efforts in the areas of modeling, simulation and forecasting intraseasonal and short-term climate variability. More specifically, the aims of the 2003 workshop were to: 1) develop a baseline of the "state of the art" in subseasonal prediction capabilities, 2) implement a program to carry out experimental subseasonal forecasts, and 3) develop strategies for tapping the above sources of predictability by focusing research, model development, and the development/acquisition of new observations on the subseasonal problem. The workshop was held over two days and was attended by over 80 scientists, modelers, forecasters and agency personnel. The agenda of the workshop focused on issues related to the MJO and tropicalextratropical interactions as they relate to the subseasonal simulation and prediction problem. This included the development of plans for a coordinated set of GCM hindcast experiments to assess current model subseasonal prediction capabilities and shortcomings, an emphasis on developing a strategy to rectify shortcomings associated with tropical intraseasonal variability, namely diabatic processes, and continuing the implementation of an experimental forecast and model development program that focuses on one of the key sources of untapped predictability, namely the MJO. The tangible outcomes of the meeting included: 1) the development of a recommended framework for a set of multi-year ensembles of 45-day hindcasts to be carried out by a number of GCMs so that they can be analyzed in regards to their representations of subseasonal variability, predictability and forecast skill, 2) an assessment of the present status of GCM representations of the MJO and recommendations for future steps to take in order to remedy the remaining shortcomings in these representations, and 3) a final implementation plan for a multi-institute/multi-nation Experimental MJO Prediction Program.

Waliser, Duane↗

Tides and Decadal Variability

This paper reviews the mechanisms by which oceanic tides and decadal variability in the oceans are connected. We distinguish between variability caused by tides and variability observed in the tides themselves. Both effects have been detected at some level. The most obvious connection with decadal timescales is through the 18.6-year precession of the moon's orbit plane. This precession gives rise to a small tide of the same period and to 18.6-year modulations in the phase and amplitudes of short-period tides. The 18.6-year "node tide" is very small, no more than 2 cm anywhere, and in sea level data it is dominated by the ocean's natural Variability. Some authors have naively attributed climate variations with periods near 19 years directly to the node tide, but the amplitude of the tide is too small for this mechanism to be operative. The more likely explanation (Loder and Garrett, JGR, 83, 1967-70, 1978) is that the 18.6-y modulations in short-period tides, especially h e principal tide M2, cause variations in ocean mixing, which is then observed in temperature and other climatic indicators. Tidally forced variability has also been proposed by some authors, either in response to occasional (and highly predictable) tidal extremes or as a nonlinear low-frequency oscillation caused by interactions between short-period tides. The former mechanism can produce only short-duration events hardly more significant than normal tidal ranges, but the latter mechanism can in principle induce low-frequency oscillations. The most recent proposal of this type is by Keeling and Whorf, who highlight the 1800-year spectral peak discovered by Bond et al. (1997). But the proposal appears contrived and should be considered, in the words of Munk et al. (2002), "as the most likely among unlikely candidates."

Ray, Richard D.↗

Computation of Sensitivity Derivatives of Navier-Stokes Equations using Complex Variables

Accurate computation of sensitivity derivatives is becoming an important item in Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) because of recent emphasis on using nonlinear CFD methods in aerodynamic design, optimization, stability and control related problems. Several techniques are available to compute gradients or sensitivity derivatives of desired flow quantities or cost functions with respect to selected independent (design) variables. Perhaps the most common and oldest method is to use straightforward finite-differences for the evaluation of sensitivity derivatives. Although very simple, this method is prone to errors associated with choice of step sizes and can be cumbersome for geometric variables. The cost per design variable for computing sensitivity derivatives with central differencing is at least equal to the cost of three full analyses, but is usually much larger in practice due to difficulty in choosing step sizes. Another approach gaining popularity is the use of Automatic Differentiation software (such as ADIFOR) to process the source code, which in turn can be used to evaluate the sensitivity derivatives of preselected functions with respect to chosen design variables. In principle, this approach is also very straightforward and quite promising. The main drawback is the large memory requirement because memory use increases linearly with the number of design variables. ADIFOR software can also be cumber-some for large CFD codes and has not yet reached a full maturity level for production codes, especially in parallel computing environments.

Vatsa, Veer N.↗

Variability in surface ECG morphology: signal or noise?

Using data collected from canine models of acute myocardial ischemia, we investigated two issues of major relevance to electrocardiographic signal averaging: ECG epoch alignment, and the spectral characteristics of the beat-to-beat variability in ECG morphology. With initial digitization rates of 1 kHz, an iterative a posteriori matched filtering alignment scheme, and linear interpolation, we demonstrated that there is sufficient information in the body surface ECG to merit alignment to a precision of 0.1 msecs. Applying this technique to align QRS complexes and atrial pacing artifacts independently, we demonstrated that the conduction delay from atrial stimulus to ventricular activation may be so variable as to preclude using atrial pacing as an alignment mechanism, and that this variability in conduction time be modulated at the frequency of respiration and at a much lower frequency (0.02-0.03Hz). Using a multidimensional spectral technique, we investigated the beat-to-beat variability in ECG morphology, demonstrating that the frequency spectrum of ECG morphological variation reveals a readily discernable modulation at the frequency of respiration. In addition, this technique detects a subtle beat-to-beat alternation in surface ECG morphology which accompanies transient coronary artery occlusion. We conclude that physiologically important information may be stored in the variability in the surface electrocardiogram, and that this information is lost by conventional averaging techniques.

NASA Discipline Cardiopulmonary↗

Oscillatory patterns in sympathetic neural discharge and cardiovascular variables during orthostatic stimulus

BACKGROUND: We tested the hypothesis that a common oscillatory pattern might characterize the rhythmic discharge of muscle sympathetic nerve activity (MSNA) and the spontaneous variability of heart rate and systolic arterial pressure (SAP) during a physiological increase of sympathetic activity induced by the head-up tilt maneuver. METHODS AND RESULTS: Ten healthy subjects underwent continuous recordings of ECG, intra-arterial pressure, respiratory activity, central venous pressure, and MSNA, both in the recumbent position and during 75 degrees head-up tilt. Venous samplings for catecholamine assessment were obtained at rest and during the fifth minute of tilt. Spectrum and cross-spectrum analyses of R-R interval, SAP, and MSNA variabilities and of respiratory activity provided the low (LF, 0.1 Hz) and high frequency (HF, 0.27 Hz) rhythmic components of each signal and assessed their linear relationships. Compared with the recumbent position, tilt reduced central venous pressure, but blood pressure was unchanged. Heart rate, MSNA, and plasma epinephrine and norepinephrine levels increased, suggesting a marked enhancement of overall sympathetic activity. During tilt, LF(MSNA) increased compared with the level in the supine position; this mirrored similar changes observed in the LF components of R-R interval and SAP variabilities. The increase of LF(MSNA) was proportional to the amount of the sympathetic discharge. The coupling between LF components of MSNA and R-R interval and SAP variabilities was enhanced during tilt compared with rest. CONCLUSIONS: During the sympathetic activation induced by tilt, a similar oscillatory pattern based on an increased LF rhythmicity characterized the spontaneous variability of neural sympathetic discharge, R-R interval, and arterial pressure.

NASA Program Biomedical Research and Countermeasur↗

NASA GEOS-3/TRMM Re-analysis: Capturing Observed Tropical Rainfall Variability in Global Analysis for Climate Research

Understanding climate variability over a wide range of space-time scales requires a comprehensive description of the earth system. Global analyses produced by a fixed assimilation system (i.e., re-analyses) - as their quality continues to improve - have the potential of providing a vital tool for meeting this challenge. But at the present time, the usefulness of re-analyses is limited by uncertainties in such basic fields as clouds, precipitation, and evaporation - especially in the tropics, where observations are relatively sparse. Analyses of the tropics have long been shown to be sensitive to. the treatment of cloud precipitation processes, which remains a major source of uncertainty in current models. Yet, for many climate studies it is crucial that analyses can accurately reproduce the observed rainfall intensity and variability since a small error of 1 mm/d in surface rain translates into an error of approx. 30 W/sq m in energy (latent heat) flux. Currently, discrepancies between the observed and analyzed monthly-mean rain rates averaged to 100 km x 100 km resolution can exceed 4 mm/d (or 120 W/sq m ), compared to uncertainties in surface radiative fluxes of approx. 10-20 W/sq m . Improving precipitation in analyses would reduce a major source of uncertainty in the global energy budget. Uncertainties in tropical precipitation have also been a major impediment in understanding how the tropics interact with other regions, including the remote response to El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability on interannual time scales, the influence of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and monsoons on intraseasonal time scales. A global analysis that can replicate the observed precipitation variability together with physically consistent estimates of other atmospheric variables provides the key to breaking this roadblock. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center has been exploring the use of satellite-based microwave rainfall measurements in improving global analyses and has recently produced a multi-year, 1 x 1 TRMM re-analysis , which assimilates 6-hourly TMI and SSM/I surface rain rates over tropical oceans using a ID variational continuous assimilation (VCA) procedure in the GEOS-3 global data assimilation system. The analysis period extends from 1 November 1997 through 3 1 December 2002. The goal is to produce a multi-year global analysis that is dynamically consistent with available tropical precipitation observations for the community to assess its utility in climate applications and identify areas for further improvements. A distinct feature of the GEOS-3RRMh4 re-analysis is that its precipitation analysis is not derived from a short-term forecast (as done in most operational systems) but is given by a time- continuous model integration constrained by precipitation observations within a 6-h analysis window, while the wind, temperature, and pressure fields are allowed to directly respond to the improved precipitation and associated latent heating structures within the same analysis window. In this talk, I will assess the impact VCA precipitation assimilation on analyses of climate signals ranging from a few weeks to interannual time scales and compare results against other operational and reanalysis products.

Hou, Arthur Y.↗

Increased walking variability in elderly persons with congestive heart failure

OBJECTIVES: To determine the effects of congestive heart failure on a person's ability to walk at a steady pace while ambulating at a self-determined rate. SETTING: Beth Israel Hospital, Boston, a primary and tertiary teaching hospital, and a social activity center for elderly adults living in the community. PARTICIPANTS: Eleven elderly subjects (aged 70-93 years) with well compensated congestive heart failure (NY Heart Association class I or II), seven elderly subjects (aged 70-79 years) without congestive heart failure, and 10 healthy young adult subjects (aged 20-30 years). MEASUREMENTS: Subjects walked for 8 minutes on level ground at their own selected walking rate. Footswitches were used to measure the time between steps. Step rate (steps/minute) and step rate variability were calculated for the entire walking period, for 30 seconds during the first minute of the walk, for 30 seconds during the last minute of the walk, and for the 30-second period when each subject's step rate variability was minimal. Group means and 5% and 95% confidence intervals were computed. MAIN RESULTS: All measures of walking variability were significantly increased in the elderly subjects with congestive heart failure, intermediate in the elderly controls, and lowest in the young subjects. There was no overlap between the three groups using the minimal 30-second variability (elderly CHF vs elderly controls: P < 0.001, elderly controls vs young: P < 0.001), and no overlap between elderly subjects with and without congestive heart failure when using the overall variability. For all four measures, there was no overlap in any of the confidence intervals, and all group means were significantly different (P < 0.05).

NASA Discipline Cardiopulmonary↗

Mechanisms for Diurnal Variability of Global Tropical Rainfall Observed from TRMM

The behavior and various controls of diurnal variability in tropical-subtropical rainfall are investigated using Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) precipitation measurements retrieved from: (1) TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI), (2) Precipitation Radar (PR), and (3) TMI/PR Combined, standard level 2 algorithms for the 1998 annual cycle. Results show that the diurnal variability characteristics of precipitation are consistent for all three algorithms, providing assurance that TRMM retrievals are providing consistent estimates of rainfall variability. As anticipated, most ocean areas exhibit more rainfall at night, while over most land areas rainfall peaks during daytime ,however, various important exceptions are found. The dominant feature of the oceanic diurnal cycle is a rainfall maximum in late-evening/early-morning (LE-EM) hours, while over land the dominant maximum occurs in the mid- to late-afternoon (MLA). In conjunction with these maxima are pronounced seasonal variations of the diurnal amplitudes. Amplitude analysis shows that the diurnal pattern and its seasonal evolution are closely related to the rainfall accumulation pattern and its seasonal evolution. In addition, the horizontal distribution of diurnal variability indicates that for oceanic rainfall there is a secondary MLA maximum, co-existing with the LE-EM maximum, at latitudes dominated by large scale convergence and deep convection. Analogously, there is a preponderance for an LE-EM maximum over land, co-existing with the stronger MLA maximum, although it is not evident that this secondary continental feature is closely associated with the large scale circulation. The ocean results clearly indicate that rainfall diurnal variability associated with large scale convection is an integral part of the atmospheric general circulation.

Yang, Song↗

Microstrip Reflectarray with Elements Having Variable Rotation Angles

Two Ka-band, half-meter diameter, circularly polarized microstrip reflectarrays have been developed. One has identical square patches with variable-length phase delay lines. The other uses identical square patches and delay lines with variable element rotation angles. Although both antennas demonstrated excellent efficiencies, adequate bandwidths, and low average sidelobe and cross-pol levels, the one with variable rotation angles achieved superior overall performance. It is believed that these are electrically the largest microstrip reflectarrays (6924 elements with 42 dB gain) ever developed. It is also the first time that circular polarization has been actually demonstrated using microstrip patch elements. Recent advances in reflectarray technology include the following: An X-band 0.75 m diameter microstrip reflectarray using variable-length phase delay lines which demonstrated a relatively high efficiency of 70% with peak gain of 35 dB; a partial microstrip reflectarray with beam scanning capability; A 27 GHz 0.23m diameter microstrip reflectarray using variable-size patches which achieved a gain of 31 dB at an efficiency of 31%. All these reflectarrays have dual-linear and dual-circular polarization capabilities, but only linear polarizations were demonstrated.

Huang, John↗

Two-Dimensional Bifurcated Inlet Variable Cowl Lip Test Completed in 10- by 10-Foot Supersonic Wind Tunnel

Researchers at the NASA Glenn Research Center at Lewis Field successfully tested a variable cowl lip inlet at simulated takeoff conditions in Glenn s 10- by 10-Foot Supersonic Wind Tunnel (10x10 SWT) as part of the High-Speed Research Program. The test was a follow-on to the Two-Dimensional Bifurcated (2DB) Inlet/Engine test. At the takeoff condition for a High-Speed Civil Transport aircraft, the inlet must provide adequate airflow to the engine with an acceptable distortion level and high-pressure recovery. The test was conducted to study the effectiveness of installing two rotating lips on the 2DB Inlet cowls to increase mass flow rate and eliminate or reduce boundary layer flow separation near the lips. Hardware was mounted vertically in the test section so that it extended through the tunnel ceiling and that the 2DB Inlet was exposed to the atmosphere above the test section. The tunnel was configured in the aerodynamic mode, and exhausters were used to pump down the tunnel to vacuum levels and to provide a maximum flow rate of approximately 58 lb/sec. The test determined the (1) maximum flow in the 2DB Inlet for each variable cowl lip, (2) distortion level and pressure recovery for each lip configuration, (3) boundary layer conditions near variable lips inside the 2DB Inlet, (4) effects of a wing structure adjacent to the 2DB Inlet, and (5) effects of different 2DB Inlet exit configurations. It also employed flow visualization to generate enough qualitative data on variable lips to optimize the variable lip concept. This test was a collaborative effort between the Boeing Company and Glenn. Extensive inhouse support at Glenn contributed significantly to the progress and accomplishment of this test.

Hoffman, T. R.↗

Variable Stiffness Panel Structural Analyses With Material Nonlinearity and Correlation With Tests

Results from structural analyses of three tow-placed AS4/977-3 composite panels with both geometric and material nonlinearities are presented. Two of the panels have variable stiffness layups where the fiber orientation angle varies as a continuous function of location on the panel planform. One variable stiffness panel has overlapping tow bands of varying thickness, while the other has a theoretically uniform thickness. The third panel has a conventional uniform-thickness [plus or minus 45](sub 5s) layup with straight fibers, providing a baseline for comparing the performance of the variable stiffness panels. Parametric finite element analyses including nonlinear material shear are first compared with material characterization test results for two orthotropic layups. This nonlinear material model is incorporated into structural analysis models of the variable stiffness and baseline panels with applied end shortenings. Measured geometric imperfections and mechanical prestresses, generated by forcing the variable stiffness panels from their cured anticlastic shapes into their flatter test configurations, are also modeled. Results of these structural analyses are then compared to the measured panel structural response. Good correlation is observed between the analysis results and displacement test data throughout deep postbuckling up to global failure, suggesting that nonlinear material behavior is an important component of the actual panel structural response.

Wu, K. Chauncey↗

HST/ACS Coronagraphic Observations of the HD 163296 Circumstellar Disk: Evidence of Time-Variable Self-Shadowing?

We present Hubble Space Telescope Advanced Camera for Surveys (HST/ACS) coronagraphic observations of the Herbig Ae star HD 163296. HD 163296's scattered light disk was resolved in the F606W and F814W filters in observations obtained In 2003 and in the F435W filter in observations obtained in 2004. Analysis of single-epoch data indicates that the disk (V-I) color is redder than the observed stellar (V-I) color. This spatially uniform red disk color might be indicative of either an evolution in the grain size distribution (i.e. grain growth) and/or composition. Both of these processes would be consistent with the observed flat geometry of the outer disk, as diagnosed by the observed r$(exp -3)$ power law behavior of its median azimuthally averaged disk surface brightness, which suggest that grain evolution is occurring. Comparison of ACS and STIS epoch scattered light data reveals differences in the observed disk surface brightnesses, of order 1 mag arcsec$(exp -2)$, in both V and white-light filter bandpasses. Along with the observed variability in the visibility and surface brightness of the ansa(e) in the disk, and spectropolarimetric variability of the system, these results suggest that the resolved scattered light disk is variable, a phenomenon not previously observed in any other Herbig protoplanetary system We speculate that the observed behavior might be attributable to the variable inflation of the scale height of the inner disk wall, which results in variable self-shadowing of the outer disk.

Wisniewski, J.↗

The HD 163296 Circumstellar Disk in Scattered Light: Evidence of Time-Variable Self-Shadowing

We present the first multi-color view of the scattered light disk of the Herbig Ae star HD 163296, based on coronagraphic observations from the Hubble Space Telescope Advanced Camera for Surveys (ACS). Radial profile fits of the surface brightness along the disk's semi-major axis indicates that the disk is not continuously flared, and extends to approx.540 AU. The disk's color (V-I)=1.1 at a radial distance of 3.5" is redder than the observed stellar color (V-I)=0.15. This red disk color might be indicative of either an evolution in the grain size distribution (i.e. grain growth) and/or composition, both of which would be consistent with the observed non-flared geometry of the outer disk. We also identify a single ansa morphological structure in our F435W ACS data, which is absent from earlier epoch F606W and F814W ACS data, but corresponds to one of the two ansa observed in archival HST STIS coronagraphic data. Following transformation to similar band-passes, we find that the scattered light disk of HD 163296 is 1 mag arcsec(sup -2) fainter at 3.5" in the STIS data than in the ACS data. Moreover, variations are seen in (i) the visibility of the ansa(e) structures, in (ii) the relative surface brightness of the ansa(e) structures, and in (iii) the (known) intrinsic polarization of the system. These results indicate that the scattered light from the HD 163296 disk is variable. We speculate that the inner disk wall, which Sitko et al. suggests has a variable scale height as diagnosed by near-IR SED variability, induces variable self-shadowing of the outer disk. We further speculate that the observed surface brightness variability of the ansa(e) structures may indicate that the inner disk wall is azimuthally asymmetric. Subject headings: circumstellar matter - stars: individual (HD 163296) - planetary systems: formation - planetary systems: protoplanetary disks

Wisniewski, John P.↗

Variability of Springtime Transpacific Pollution Transport During 2000-2006: The INTEX-5 Mission in the Context of Previous Years

We analyze the transport of pollution across the Pacific during the NASA INTEX-B (Intercontinental Chemical Transport Experiment Part 8) campaign in spring 2006 and examine how this year compares to the time period for 2000 through 2006. In addition to aircraft measurements of carbon monoxide (CO) collected during INTEX-B, we include in this study multi-year satellite retrievals of CO from the Measurements of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) instrument and simulations from the chemistry transport model MOZART-4. Model tracers are used to examine the contributions of different source regions and source types to pollution levels over the Pacific. Additional modeling studies are performed to separate the impacts of inter-annual variability in meteorology and .dynamics from changes in source strength. interannual variability in the tropospheric CO burden over the Pacific and the US as estimated from the MOPITT data range up to 7% and a somewhat smaller estimate (5%) is derived from the model. When keeping the emissions in the model constant between years, the year-to-year changes are reduced (2%), but show that in addition to changes in emissions, variable meteorological conditions also impact transpacific pollution transport. We estimate that about 113 of the variability in the tropospheric CO loading over the contiguous US is explained by changes in emissions and about 213 by changes in meteorology and transport. Biomass burning sources are found to be a larger driver for inter-annual variability in the CO loading compared to fossil and biofuel sources or photochemical CO production even though their absolute contributions are smaller. Source contribution analysis shows that the aircraft sampling during INTEX-B was fairly representative of the larger scale region, but with a slight bias towards higher influence from Asian contributions.

Pfister, G. G.↗