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For each of the methods identified, a theoretical basis is provided and an illustrative example is described. The example includes sufficient realism and detail to enable an analyst to conduct an evaluation of other systems. The methods discussed in the study include equal capability cost analysis, consumers' surplus, and statistical decision theory.
A conceptual satellite system to replace or complement NOAA's data collection, internal communications, and public information dissemination systems for the mid-1980's was defined. Program cost and cost sensitivity to variations in communications functions are analyzed.
The charge-flow transistor (CFT) and its applications for fire detection and gas sensing were investigated. The utility of various thin film polymers as possible sensing materials was determined. One polymer, PAPA, showed promise as a relative humidity sensor; two others, PFI and PSB, were found to be particularly suitable for fire detection. The behavior of the charge-flow capacitor, which is basically a parallel-plate capacitor with a polymer-filled gap in the metallic tip electrode, was successfully modeled as an RC transmission line. Prototype charge-flow transistors were fabricated and tested. The effective threshold voltage of this metal oxide semiconductor was found to be dependent on whether surface or bulk conduction in the thin film was dominant. Fire tests with a PFI-coated CFT indicate good sensitivity to smouldering fires.
Results of a test of the use of a Lightning Detection and Ranging (LDAR) remote display in the Patrick AFB RAPCON facility are presented. Agreement between LDAR and radar precipitation echoes of the RAPCON radar was observed, as well as agreement between LDAR and pilot's visual observations of lightning flashes. A more precise comparison between LDAR and KSC based radars is achieved by the superposition of LDAR precipitation echoes. Airborne measurements of updrafts and turbulence by an armored T-28 aircraft flying through the thunderclouds are correlated with LDAR along the flight path. Calibration and measurements of the accuracy of the LDAR System are discussed, and the extended range of the system is illustrated.
The total medical-biological impact of the Earth's space radiation environment on humans is a function of combined EVA and non-EVA exposure. In either case, the correct assessment of the eventual health risk to crew members is crucial to the success and viability of a project or mission. Aside from the medical-biological aspect itself, the validity of any assessment depends entirely on the existence of good and reliable models providing the high quality data that is needed for such evaluations, which should contain time histories of storm and substorm events, their intensities, their frequency of occurence, and their duration. Prediction requirements, advantageous and desirable model developments and improvements, and systems that need to be designed and tested, which would alert space crews and maintenance personnel about impending radiation danger are outlined.
The use of solar wind measurements made by ISEE-3 in its halo orbit around the L1 libration point to predict the onsets of magnetospheric substorms and geomagnetic storms is discussed. Consideration is given to the limitations on the predictive ability of the satellite measurements set by the bulk solar wind velocity, the elliptical orbit of the satellite and the correlation lengths of the magnetic field and the solar wind plasma. The ISEE-3 real-time data system is presented, with attention given to the ground receiving stations, the NASCOM communications system, the Multisatellite Operations Control Center and Information Processing Division at the Goddard Space Flight Center, the link between Goddard and the NOAA Space Environmental Services Center, and the NOAA Space Environment Laboratory data acquisition and display data system, which includes displays allowing storm forecasts. It is noted that the entire system should be operational by March, 1980.
The Canadian crop calendars for LACIE are presented. Long term monthly averages of daily maximum and daily minimum temperatures for subregions of provinces were used to simulate normal daily maximum and minimum temperatures. The Robertson (1968) spring wheat and Williams (1974) spring barley phenology models were run using the simulated daily temperatures and daylengths for appropriate latitudes. Simulated daily temperatures and phenology model outputs for spring wheat and spring barley are given.
New crop calendars are produced for U.S. regions where several years of periodic growth stage observations are available on a CRD basis. Preexisting crop calendars from the LACIE are also collected as are U.S. crop calendars currently being created for the Foreign Commodities Production Forecast project. For the U.S.S.R. and Canada, no new crop calendars are created because no new data are available. Instead, LACIE crop calendars are compared against simulated normal daily temperatures and against the Robertson wheat and Williams barley phenology models run on the simulated normal temperatures. Severe inconsistencies are noted and discussed. For the U.S.S.R., spring and fall planting dates can probably be estimated accurately from satellite or meteorological data. For the starter model problem, the Feyerherm spring wheat model is recommended for spring planted small grains, and the results of an analysis are presented. For fall planted small grains, use of normal planting dates supplemented by spectral observation of an early stage is recommended. The importance of nonmeteorological factors as they pertain to meteorological factors in determining fall planting is discussed. Crop calendar data available at the Johnson Space Center for the U.S., U.S.S.R., Canada, and other countries are inventoried.
A feasibility study was conducted to determine whether ground based Doppler radar could measure the wind along the path of an approaching aircraft with sufficient accuracy to predict aircraft performance. Forty-three PAR approaches were conducted, with 16 examined in detail. In each, Doppler derived longitudinal winds were compared to aircraft measured winds; in approximately 75 percent of the cases, the Doppler and aircraft winds were in acceptable agreement. In the remaining cases, errors may have been due to a lack of Doppler resolution, a lack of co-location of the two sampling volumes, the presence of eddy or vortex like disturbances within the pulse volume, or the presence of point targets in antenna side lobes. It was further concluded that shrouding techniques would have reduced the side lobe problem. A ground based Doppler radar operating in the optically clear air, provides the appropriate longitudinal winds along an aircraft's intended flight path.
The crop calendars produced for the Large Area Crop Inventory Experiment (LACIE) and crop calendar samples for Colorado, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Texas are presented. These calendars are based on weekly crop reporting district level observations of the percentage of various crops at several growth stages. A sample of the statistical treatments of the weekly data is provided. Four to five years of 50-percent dates for stages on a crop reporting district level for Arkansas, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, Mississippi, Ohio and Wisconsin are also given.
Emissive (10.5 to 12.5 microns) and reflective (0.55 to 1.1 microns) data for ten day scenes and infrared data for six night scenes of southern Texas were analyzed for plant cover, soil temperature, freeze, water stress, and evapotranspiration. Heat capacity mapping mission radiometric temperatures were: within 2 C of dewpoint temperatures, significantly correlated with variables important in evapotranspiration, and related to freeze severity and planting depth soil temperatures.
Two numerical models of aircraft performance are developed to relate atmospheric wind signals in wind-shear situations to aircraft response. Both models produce time histories of pitch angle, airspeed, height above the ground, and other parameters for simulating aircraft making precision approaches along a 3-deg glide slope to the runway. Simulations conducted using thunderstorm environment wind data indicate that the horizontal wind component is at least as important as the vertical component in determining aircraft response to wind shear. Obtaining quantitative measurements of aircraft approach or departure quality is found to depend on several factors, including the knowledge of winds along the expected flight track, clear-air detection in a quasi-horizontal path, and a near continuous estimate of approach deterioration due to shear conditions.
Emissivities were calculated from the Nimbus 5 electrically scanning microwave radiometer (ESMR) over 25 km grid cells for the southern Great Plains includin the western two-thirds of Kansas and Oklahoma and northwest Texas. These emissivities, normalized for seasonal temperature changes, were in excellent agreement with theory and measurements made from aircraft and truck sensors at the 1.55 cm wavelength of ESMR. These emissivities were related to crop moisture conditions of the winter wheat in the major wheat producing counties of the three states. High correlations were noted between emissitivity and an antecedent precipitation index (API) used to infer soil moisture for periods when the soils were essentially bare. The emissivities from ESMR were related through API and actual crop condition reports to progress of fall planting, adequacy of crop moisture for stand establishment, and periods of excessive moisture that necessitated replanting. Periods of prolonged frozen soil in the winter were observable at several grid points. The average emissivities of the canopy/soil surface during the maximum canopy development times in the spring showed a good agreement with moisture stress inferred from rainfall and yield data.
The wind shear program is directed toward investigating the effects of wind shear on aerodynamic performance. Combining the Joint Airport Weather Studies wind shear data with the B-57B gust gradient data, the transient scales of motion involved in wind shear aircraft accidents or mishaps are being identified. The effect of variable winds having these time scales on the aerodynamic coefficients of moist airfoils were fully investigated. Transient and spatial variation of flow over the airfoil may cause premature stall or hysteresis effects which significantly impact the lift and drag (i.e., aerodynamic coefficients). Analysis of airfoil performance subject to 4-D variable flows will be carried out.
There are specific risks to the crew of the manned Mars mission from energetic particles generated by solar activity. Therefore, mission planning must provide for solar monitoring and solar activity forecasts. The main need is to be able to anticipate the energetic particle events associated with some solar flares and, occasionally, with erupting filaments. A second need may be for forecasts of solar interference with radio communication between the manned Mars mission (during any of its three phases) and Earth. These two tasks are compatible with a small solar observatory that would be used during the transit and orbital phases of the mission. Images of the Sun would be made several times per hour and, together with a solar X-ray detector, used to monitor for the occurrence of solar activity. The data would also provide a basis for research studies of the interplanetary medium utilizing observations covering more of the surface of the Sun than just the portion facing Earth.
Use of remote sensing for disaster control and vulnerability analysis, disaster prevention, and disaster relief is discussed.
The purpose of the meeting was to transfer significant, ongoing results gained during the first year of the joint NASA/FAA Airborne Wind Shear Program to the technical industry and to pose problems of current concern to the combined group. It also provided a forum for manufacturers to review forward-looking technology concepts and for technologists to gain an understanding of FAA certification requirements and the problems encountered by the manufacturers during the development of airborne equipment.