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NASA NTRS2022

Simulation and Regression Modeling of Nasa'S X-59 Low-Boom Carpets Across America

NASA’s X-59 aircraft is predicted to produce a significantly quieter cruise sonic boom than traditional N-wave-producing aircraft. A propagation simulation study was undertaken to quantify loudness levels, exposure size, and variability of the X-59’s low-boom carpet using realistic atmospheric profiles across the contiguous United States of America (CONUS). Near-field pressure data of the X-59 in supersonic cruise from NASA’s fully unstructured Navier–Stokes three-dimensional (known as FUN3D) computational fluid dynamics code were propagated using NASA’s PCBoom code, which solves an enhanced Burgers equation along acoustic rays. Atmospheric profiles from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Forecast System Version 2 database were used for propagation at 138 locations across the CONUS. Carpets at each location were generated for aircraft headings in the four cardinal directions. Over one million X-59 carpets were generated in total. The effects of the heading, season, geography, and climate zone on boom levels and exposure size are presented. Multiple linear regression models were developed to estimate carpet width and loudness metrics across the CONUS. These results inform regulators and mission planners on expected variations in boom levels and carpet extent from atmospheric variations. Understanding potential carpet variability is important when planning community noise surveys using the X-59.

X-59↗

NASA NTRS2018

Prediction Skill of U.S. Flash Droughts in Subseasonal Experiment (SubX) Model Hindcasts

Droughts that establish themselves over a short period of time (weeks to a few months), referred to as flash droughts, can have devastating impacts on agriculture, water resources, and ecosystems. The ability to predict such droughts in advance would greatly enhance our preparation for them and potentially reduce their impacts. The sub-seasonal time scale at which flash droughts occur emphasizes the importance of producing forecasts at weekly or finer intervals that extend beyond the numerical weather prediction time frame. Here we assess the ability of eight global forecast systems, each participating in the Sub-seasonal Experiment project (SubX), to predict key features associated with rapidly developing droughts over the United States during the last two decades. MERRA2 reanalysis is used as observations. Prediction skill for temperature and precipitation anomalies during these events is limited to the first 1-2 weeks after initialization for most hindcasts. However, there are some hindcasts in which large anomalies are well predicted 3-4 weeks or more in advance. The physical mechanisms that are key to the development of surface anomalies, including quasi-stationary atmospheric waves, were also evaluated. Most hindcasts were unable to capture the development or progression of such drought-inducing circulation features more than 1-2 weeks in advance.

Deangelis, Anthony M.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Data analysis and archival

The purpose of this task is the acquisition, distribution, archival, and analysis of data collected during and in support of the Upper Atmospheric Research Program (UARP) field experiments. Meteorological and U2 data from the 1984 Stratosphere-Troposphere Exchange Project (STEP) was analyzed to determine characteristics of internal atmospheric waves. CDROM's containing data from the 1987 STEP, 1987 Airborne Antarctic Ozone Expedition (AAOE), and the 1989 Airborne Arctic Stratospheric Expedition (AASE) were produced for archival and distribution of those data sets. The AASE CDROM contains preliminary data and a final release is planned for February 1990. Comparisons of data from the NASA ER-2 Meteorological Measurement System (MMS) with radar tracking and radiosonde data show good agreement. Planning for a Meteorological Support Facility continues. We are investigating existing and proposed hardware and software to receive, manipulate, and display satellite imagery and standard meteorological analyses, forecasts, and radiosonde data.

Danielsen, Edwin F.↗

NASA NTRS2012

DC and Structured Electric Fields Observed on the C/NOFS Satellite and Their Association with Longitude, Plasma Density, and Solar Activity

Observations of DC electric fields and associated E x B plasma drifts gathered by the Vector Electric Field Investigation (VEFI) on the Air Force Communication/Navigation Outage Forecasting System (C/NOFS) satellite are presented. We show statistical averages of the vector fields and resulting E x B plasma flows for the first three years of operations as a function of season, longitude, local time, and Fl 0.7 conditions. Magnetic field data from the VEFI science magnetometer are used to compute the plasma flows. Although typically displaying eastward and outward-directed fields during the day and westward and downward-directed fields at night, the data from DC electric field detector often reveal variations from this pattern that depend on longitude, solar activity, and plasma density. Clear "wave-4" tidal effects in both electric field components have been detected and will be presented. Zonal plasma drifts show a marked variation with solar activity and may be used as a proxy for neutral winds at night. Evidence for pre-reversal enhancements in the meridional drifts that depend on solar activity is present for some longitudes, and are corroborated by clear evidence in the plasma density data that the spacecraft journeyed below the F-peak during evenings when the rise in the ionosphere is most pronounced. In addition to DC electric fields, the data reveal considerable electric field structures at large scales (approx 100's of km) that are usually confined to the nightside. Although such electric field structures are typically associated with plasma density depletions and structures, what is surprising is the number of cases in which large amplitude, structured DC electric fields are observed without a significant plasma density counterpart structure, including their appearance at times when the ambient plasma density appears relatively quiescent. We investigate the mapping of structured electric fields along magnetic field lines from distant locations and consider tropospheric thunderstorm sources to explain some of the observations. The dependence of the structuring on season and solar activity will be reported and discussed.

Pfaff, Robert↗

NASA NTRS2008

The NASA Energy and Water Cycle Extreme (NEWSE) Integration Project

Skillful predictions of water and energy cycle extremes (flood and drought) are elusive. To better understand the mechanisms responsible for water and energy extremes, and to make decisive progress in predicting these extremes, the collaborative NASA Energy and Water cycle Extremes (NEWSE) Integration Project, is studying these extremes in the U.S. Southern Great Plains (SGP) during 2006-2007, including their relationships with continental and global scale processes, and assessment of their predictability on multiple space and time scales. It is our hypothesis that an integrative analysis of observed extremes which reflects the current understanding of the role of SST and soil moisture variability influences on atmospheric heating and forcing of planetary waves, incorporating recently available global and regional hydro- meteorological datasets (i.e., precipitation, water vapor, clouds, etc.) in conjunction with advances in data assimilation, can lead to new insights into the factors that lead to persistent drought and flooding. We will show initial results of this project, whose goals are to provide an improved definition, attribution and prediction on sub-seasonal to interannual time scales, improved understanding of the mechanisms of decadal drought and its predictability, including the impacts of SST variability and deep soil moisture variability, and improved monitoring/attributions, with transition to applications; a bridging of the gap between hydrological forecasts and stakeholders (utilization of probabilistic forecasts, education, forecast interpretation for different sectors, assessment of uncertainties for different sectors, etc.).

House, P. R.↗

NASA NTRS1985

The influence of tropical wind data on the analysis and forecasts of the GLAS GCM for the Global Weather Experiment

Several densities of tropical divergent wind data were included in a fourth-order GCM to examine the effects on the accuracy of the model predictions. The experiments covered assimilation of all available tropical wind data, no tropical wind data between 20 deg N and 20 deg S, only westerly tropical wind data and only easterly tropical wind data. The predictions were all made for the 200 mb upper troposphere. Elimination of tropical data produced excessively strong upper tropospheric westerlies which in turn amplified the globally integrated rotational flow kinetic energy by around 10 percent and doubled the global divergent flow kinetic energy. Retaining only easterly wind data, ameliorated most of the error. Inclusion of all the tropical wind data however, did not lead to overall positive effects, as the data were linked to tropical wave energetics and ageostrophic winds which were already assimilated in the model.

Paegle, J.↗

NASA NTRS1974

Evaluate ERTS imagery for mapping and detection of changes of snowcover on land and on glaciers

The author has identified the following significant results. The area of snowcover on 10 individual drainage basins in the North Cascades, Washington, has been determined by use of a semi-automatic radiance threshold technique. The result is a unique record of the changing water storage as snow in these important hydrologic units, the runoff of which is utilized for hydroelectric power, dilution of wastes and heat, support of salmon migration, and irrigation. These data allow a new type of hydrologic modelling to proceed which should permit more accurate forecasts of streamflow. A new technique has been developed for measuring snow-covered area or snowline altitude semi-automatically. This variable contour overlay method permits the snowcover to be matched efficiently to the best fit contour of altitude. The motion of the Yentna Glacier during the concluding phase of its surge was successfully measured by a flicker technique using images of two dates. It appears that displacements as small as 100 to 200 m can be measured. Motion of the Tweedsmuir Glacier in Alaska was measured using ERTS-1 images enlarged to 1:50,000. Changes detected included a shock wave moving down the glacier, the margin expanding, the moraine pattern deforming, and the marginal valley deepening.

Meier, M. F.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Assimilation of Dual-Polarimetric Radar Observations with WRF GSI

Dual-polarimetric (dual-pol) radar typically transmits both horizontally and vertically polarized radio wave pulses. From the two different reflected power returns, more accurate estimate of liquid and solid cloud and precipitation can be provided. The upgrade of the traditional NWS WSR-88D radar to include dual-pol capabilities will soon be completed for the entire NEXRAD network. Therefore, the use of dual-pol radar network will have a broad impact in both research and operational communities. The assimilation of dual-pol radar data is especially challenging as few guidelines have been provided by previous research. It is our goal to examine how to best use dual-pol radar data to improve forecast of severe storm and forecast initialization. In recent years, the Development Testbed Center (DTC) has released the community Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) DA system for the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The community GSI system runs in independently environment, yet works functionally equivalent to operational centers. With collaboration with the NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center, this study explores regional assimilation of the dual-pol radar variables from the WSR-88D radars for real case storms. Our presentation will highlight our recent effort on incorporating the horizontal reflectivity (ZH), differential reflectivity (ZDR), specific differential phase (KDP), and radial velocity (VR) data for initializing convective storms, with a significant focus being on an improved representation of hydrometeor fields. In addition, discussion will be provided on the development of enhanced assimilation procedures in the GSI system with respect to dual-pol variables. Beyond the dual-pol variable assimilation procedure developing within a GSI framework, highresolution (≤1 km) WRF model simulations and storm scale data assimilation experiments will be examined, emphasizing both model initialization and short-term forecast of precipitation fields and processes. Further details of the methodology of data assimilation, the impact of different dual-pol variables, the influence on precipitation forecast will be presented at the conference.

Li, Xuanli↗

NASA NTRS2014

Assimilation of Dual-Polarimetric Radar Observations with WRF GSI

Li, Xuanli↗

NASA NTRS2000

Theoretical Technology Research for ISTP/SOLARMAX

During the last decade, we have been developing theoretical tools to support the scientific objectives of the International Solar Terrestrial Physics (ISTP) program. Results from our mission-oriented theory program have contributed significantly to the development of predictive capabilities by using real upstream solar wind conditions as input to our models and forecasting events observed downstream near Earth. We also developed the capability to unravel the complex information contained in ion velocity distribution functions measured near the Earth to determine their origin and energization process. During solar maximum, solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) dominate the sun's activity. It is now widely accepted that the impact of CMEs (or magnetic clouds) with the Earth's magnetosphere is the cause of most magnetic storms during solar maximum. One important aspect of a CME is the occurrence of solar energetic particle (SEP) events. During these events, protons, electrons, and heavy ions of solar origin are accelerated to very high energies by shock waves driven out from the sun. We carried out a series of large-scale kinetic (LSK) simulations to model the effect of SEPs on the near-Earth environment and the accessibility of these high-energy particles to the inner magnetosphere. We present the results of these studies.

Ashour-Abdalla, Maha↗

NASA NTRS2008

Applications of TRMM-based Multi-Satellite Precipitation Estimation for Global Runoff Simulation: Prototyping a Global Flood Monitoring System

Advances in flood monitoring/forecasting have been constrained by the difficulty in estimating rainfall continuously over space (catchment-, national-, continental-, or even global-scale areas) and flood-relevant time scale. With the recent availability of satellite rainfall estimates at fine time and space resolution, this paper describes a prototype research framework for global flood monitoring by combining real-time satellite observations with a database of global terrestrial characteristics through a hydrologically relevant modeling scheme. Four major components included in the framework are (1) real-time precipitation input from NASA TRMM-based Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA); (2) a central geospatial database to preprocess the land surface characteristics: water divides, slopes, soils, land use, flow directions, flow accumulation, drainage network etc.; (3) a modified distributed hydrological model to convert rainfall to runoff and route the flow through the stream network in order to predict the timing and severity of the flood wave, and (4) an open-access web interface to quickly disseminate flood alerts for potential decision-making. Retrospective simulations for 1998-2006 demonstrate that the Global Flood Monitor (GFM) system performs consistently at both station and catchment levels. The GFM website (experimental version) has been running at near real-time in an effort to offer a cost-effective solution to the ultimate challenge of building natural disaster early warning systems for the data-sparse regions of the world. The interactive GFM website shows close-up maps of the flood risks overlaid on topography/population or integrated with the Google-Earth visualization tool. One additional capability, which extends forecast lead-time by assimilating QPF into the GFM, also will be implemented in the future.

Hong, Yang↗

NASA NTRS1981

Numerical prediction of the monsoon depression of 5-7 July 1979

A well defined monsoon depression was used for two assimilation and forecast experiments: (1) using conventional surface and upper air data, (2) using these data plus Monex data. The data sets were assimilated and used with a general circulation model to make numerical predictions. The model, the analysis and assimilation procedure, the differences in the analyses due to different data inputs, and the differences in the numerical predictions are described. The MONEX data have a positive impact, although the differences after 24 hr are not significant. The MONEX assimilation does not agree with manual analysis location of depression center. The 2.5 x 3 deg horizontal resolution of the prediction model is too coarse. The assimilation of geopotential height data derived from satellite soundings generated gravity waves with amplitudes similar to the meteorologically significant features investigated.

Shukla, J.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Genesis of Twin Tropical Cyclones as Revealed by a Global Mesoscale Model: The Role of Mixed Rossby Gravity Waves

In this study, it is proposed that twin tropical cyclones (TCs), Kesiny and 01A, in May 2002 formed in association with the scale interactions of three gyres that appeared as a convectively coupled mixed Rossby gravity (ccMRG) wave during an active phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). This is shown by analyzing observational data, including NCEP reanalysis data and METEOSAT 7 IR satellite imagery, and performing numerical simulations using a global mesoscale model. A 10-day control run is initialized at 0000 UTC 1 May 2002 with grid-scale condensation but no sub-grid cumulus parameterizations. The ccMRG wave was identified as encompassing two developing and one non-developing gyres, the first two of which intensified and evolved into the twin TCs. The control run is able to reproduce the evolution of the ccMRG wave and thus the formation of the twin TCs about two and five days in advance as well as their subsequent intensity evolution and movement within an 8-10 day period. Five additional 10-day sensitivity experiments with different model configurations are conducted to help understand the interaction of the three gyres, leading to the formation of the TCs. These experiments suggest the improved lead time in the control run may be attributed to the realistic simulation of the ccMRG wave with the following processes: (1) wave deepening (intensification) associated with a reduction in wavelength and/or the intensification of individual gyres, (2) poleward movement of gyres that may be associated with boundary layer processes, (3) realistic simulation of moist processes at regional scales in association with each of the gyres, and (4) the vertical phasing of low- and mid-level cyclonic circulations associated with a specific gyre.

forecast↗

NASA NTRS1986

A diagnostic study of baroclinic disturbances in polar air streams

Quasi-Lagrangian budgets of mass, vorticity and heat are calculated following disturbances that form within polar air streams. Observed cases are extracted from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts analyses during the First GARP Global Experiment. Model-generated cases are extracted from the simulations of extratropical cyclogenesis by Sandgathe. These polar lows grow primarily through basic baroclinic instability processes and exhibit many features of larger maritime extratropical cyclones. Polar lows that originate on the poleward (or Cyclonic - Type C) side of the jet and have considerable midtropospheric positive vorticity advection at formation time are contrasted with lows that form on the equatorward (or Anticyclonic - Type A) side of a nearly straight upper-level jet. The midtropospheric positive vorticity advection must be present to enhance the vertical circulation when the large surface fluxes that are associated with strong outbreaks act to damp the thermal wave amplification. Although latent heat release is an important factor in both types, it is an essential energy source for the Type A low developments on the equatorward side. Although the vorticity balance is initially different for the two types of polar lows, the vorticity budgets during later stages are similar. The heat budget and the thickness tendency equation demonstrated that the self-development process that is present in larger maritime cyclones is also important for polar low intensification. The absence of favorable coupling to a jet stream is the missing factor in a model-generated Type A polar low that failed to develop. Consequently, the mid- and upper-tropospheric wind fields determine which polar lows will intensify to significant amplitudes.

Sinclair, Mark R.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Observing Ice in Clouds from Space

There are many satellite observations of cloud top properties and the liquid and rain content of clouds, however, we do not yet quantitatively understand the processes that control the water budget of the upper troposphere where ice is the predominant phase, and how these processes are linked to precipitation processes and the radiative energy budget. The ice in clouds in the upper troposphere either melts into rain or is detrained, and persists, as cirrus clouds affecting the hydrological and energy cycle, respectively. Fully modeling the Earth's climate and improving weather and climate forecasts requires accurate satellite measurements of various cloud properties at the temporal and spatial scales of cloud processes. These properties include cloud horizontal and vertical structure, cloud water content and some measure of particle sizes and shapes. The uncertainty in knowledge of these ice characteristics is reflected in the large discrepancies in model simulations of the upper tropospheric water budget. Model simulations are sensitive to the partition of ice between precipitation and outflow processes, i.e., to the parameterization of ice clouds and ice processes. One barrier to achieving accurate global ice cloud properties is the lack of adequate observations at millimeter and submillimeter wavelengths (183-874 GHz). Recent advances in instrumentation have allowed for the development and implementation of an airborne submillimeter-wave radiometer. The brightness temperatures at these frequencies are especially sensitive to cirrus ice particle sizes (because they are comparable to the wavelength). This allows for more accurate ice water path estimates when multiple channels are used to probe into the cloud layers. Further, submillimeter wavelengths offer simplicity in the retrieval algorithms because they do not probe into the liquid and near surface portions of clouds, thus requiring only one term of the radiative transfer equation (ice scattering) to relate brightness temperatures to ice. The next step is a satellite mission designed to acquire global Earth radiance measurements in the submillimeter-wave region, thus bridging the measurement gap between microwave sounders and shorter-wavelength infrared and visible sensors. This presentation provides scientific justification and an approach to measuring ice water path and particle size from a satellite platform that spans a range encompassing both the hydrologically active and radiatively active components of cloud systems.

Ackerman, S.↗

NASA NTRS2020

The Boreal Winter El Niño Precipitation Response over North America: Insights into Why January is More Difficult to Predict than February

This study examines the within−season monthly variation of the El Niño response over North America during December−March using the NASA/GEOS model. In agreement with previous studies, the skill of 1−month lead GEOS coupled model forecasts of precipitation over North America is largest (smallest) for February (January), with similar results in uncoupled mode. A key finding is that the relatively poor January skillis the result ofthe model placing the main circulation anomaly over the northeast Pacific slightly to the west of the observed, resulting inprecipitation anomalies that lie off the coast instead of over land as observed. In contrast, during February the observed circulation anomaly over the northeast Pacific shifts westward, lining up with the predicted anomaly which is essentially unchanged from January, resulting in both the observed and predicted precipitation anomalies remaining off the coast. Furthermore, the largest precipitation anomalies occur along the southern tier of states associated with an eastward extended jet–something that the models capture reasonably well. Simulations with a stationary wave model indicate that the placement of January El Niño response to the west of the observed over the northeast Pacificis the result of biases in the January climatological stationary waves, rather than errors in the tropical Pacific El Niño heating anomalies in January. Furthermore, evidence is provided that the relatively poor simulation of the observed January climatology, characterized by a strengthened North Pacific jet and enhanced ridge over western North America, can be traced back to biases in the January climatology heating over the Tibet region and the tropical western Pacific.

Young-kwon Lim↗

NASA NTRS2001

A 7.5-Year Dataset of SSM/I-Derived Surface Turbulent Fluxes Over Global Oceans

The surface turbulent fluxes of momentum, latent heat, and sensible heat over global oceans are essential to weather, climate and ocean problems. Wind stress is the major forcing for driving the oceanic circulation, while Evaporation is a key component of hydrological cycle and surface heat budget. We have produced a 7.5-year (July 1987-December 1994) dataset of daily, individual monthly-mean and climatological (1988-94) monthly-mean surface turbulent fluxes over the global oceans from measurements of the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) on board the US Defense Meteorological Satellite Program F8, F10, and F11 satellites. It has a spatial resolution of 2.0x2.5 latitude-longitude. Daily turbulent fluxes are derived from daily data of SSM/I surface winds and specific humidity, National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) sea surface temperatures, and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) air-sea temperature differences, using a stability-dependent bulk scheme. The retrieved instantaneous surface air humidity (with a 25-km resolution) IS found to be generally accurate as compared to the collocated radiosonde observations over global oceans. The surface wind speed and specific humidity (latent heat flux) derived from the F10 SSM/I are found to be -encrally smaller (larger) than those retrieved from the F11 SSM/I. The F11 SSM/I appears to have slightly better retrieval accuracy for surface wind speed and humidity as compared to the F10 SSM/I. This difference may be due to the orbital drift of the F10 satellite. The daily wind stresses and latent heat fluxes retrieved from F10 and F11 SSM/Is show useful accuracy as verified against the research quality in si -neasurerrients (IMET buoy, RV Moana Wave, and RV Wecoma) in the western Pacific warm pool during the TOGA COARE Intensive observing period (November 1992-February 1993). The 1988-94 seasonal-mean turbulent fluxes and input variables derived from FS and F11 SSM/Is show reasonable patterns related to seasonal variations of atmospheric general circulation. This dataset of SSM/I-derived turbulent fluxes is useful for climate studies, forcing of ocean models, and validation of coupled ocean-atmosphere global models and can be accessed through the NASA/GSFC Distributed Active Archive Center.

Chou, Shu-Hsien↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Key Observations and Discoveries from the Vector Electric Field Investigation on the C/NOFS Satellite

Launched in 2008 and operating for 7.5 years, the Air Force Communication /Navigation Outage Forecasting System (C/NOFS) satellite included the Vector Electric Field Investigation (VEFI) designed and built at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center. VEFI successfully met its objectives: 1) investigate the role of ambient electric fields in initiating nighttime density depletions and turbulence; 2) determine the quasi-DC electric fields associated with abrupt density depletions, and 3) quantify the spectrum of the irregularities associated with density depletions, providing many key observations and discoveries including: -- Global (low latitude) vector DC electric fields at 16 s/sec revealing variations with local time, longitude, and season between extremely low and moderate solar activity-- Reversed zonal E x B drifts below the F-region ledge at sunset and simultaneous observations of large scale Kelvin-Helmholtz instabilities as seeds of spread-F -- Large expanses of quasi-coherent kilometer-scale vector wave observations (electric field and density) below 450 km and their discovery as a source of scintillations using the C/NOFS GPS -- Reversed zonal DC electric fields and simultaneous observations of afternoon counter electrojet-- Enhanced zonal DC electric fields at sunrise and full vector plasma flow continuity at the terminator-- Vector electric field and density irregularities extending to meter-scales within equatorial plasma depletions -- Intense electric field structure within the equatorial ionosphere at night in the absence of density depletions -- First observations of the westward equatorial electrojet in post-midnight ionosphere and possible association with downward meridional drifts-- Spaceborne Dst observations and implications for ring current asymmetries-- Vector electric and magnetic field Poynting flux within depletions and TIDs-- Measurements of ionospheric reflectance and Alfvenic waves associated with TIDs-- Observations of Alfven resonators -- ULF magnetic field structure within the nightime equatorial ionosphere-- Discovery of Schumman resonances in space and implications of ELF radiowave propagation-- Vector observations of 50-60 Hz powerline radiation without harmonics-- Ion cyclotron resonance absorption lines associated with ELF hiss and the identification of ambient ions-- Parallel electric fields associated with lower hybrid waves driven by thunderstorm lightning-related sferics-- Discovery of Z-mode radiation in the equatorial ionosphere including its associated with density depletions-- Optical lightning detector waveforms and electric field sferics observed up to altitudes of 800 km

Robert F Pfaff↗