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NASA NTRS2021

Simulation of Radon-222 with the GEOS-Chem Global Model: Emissions, Seasonality, and Convective Transport

Radon-222 (Rn-222) is a short-lived radioactive gas naturally emitted from land surfaces and has long been used to assess convective transport in atmospheric models. In this study, we simulate Rn-222 using the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model to improve our understanding of Rn-222 emissions and surface concentration seasonality and characterize convective transport associated with two Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) meteorological products, the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) and GEOS Forward Processing (GEOS-FP). We evaluate four global Rn-222 emission scenarios by comparing model results with observations at 51 surface sites. The default emission scenario in GEOS-Chem yields a moderate agreement with surface observations globally (68.9 % of data within a factor of 2) and a large underestimate of winter surface Rn-222 concentrations at Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes and high latitudes due to an oversimplified formulation of Rn-222 emission fluxes (1 atom cm−2 s−1 over land with a reduction by a factor of 3 under freezing conditions). We compose a new global Rn-222 emission scenario based on Zhang et al. (2011) and demonstrate its potential to improve simulated surface Rn-222 concentrations and seasonality. The regional components of this scenario include spatially and temporally varying emission fluxes derived from previous measurements of soil radium content and soil exhalation models, which are key factors in determining Rn-222 emission flux rates. However, large model underestimates of surface Rn-222 concentrations still exist in Asia, suggesting unusually high regional Rn-222 emissions. We therefore propose a conservative upscaling factor of 1.2 for Rn-222 emission fluxes in China, which was also constrained by observed deposition fluxes of 210Pb (a progeny of Rn-222). With this modification, the model shows better agreement with observations in Europe and North America (> 80 % of data within a factor of 2) and reasonable agreement in Asia (close to 70 %). Further constraints on Rn-222 emissions would require additional concentration and emission flux observations in the central United States, Canada, Africa, and Asia. We also compare and assess convective transport in model simulations driven by MERRA and GEOS-FP using observed Rn-222 vertical profiles in northern midlatitude summer and from three short-term airborne campaigns. While simulations with both GEOS products are able to capture the observed vertical gradient of Rn-222 concentrations in the lower troposphere (0–4 km), neither correctly represents the level of convective detrainment, resulting in biases in the middle and upper troposphere. Compared with GEOS-FP, MERRA leads to stronger convective transport of Rn-222, which is partially compensated for by its weaker large-scale vertical advection, resulting in similar global vertical distributions of Rn-222 concentrations between the two simulations. This has important implications for using chemical transport models to interpret the transport of other trace species when these GEOS products are used as driving meteorology.

Bo Zhang↗

NASA NTRS2021

Regional trends and drivers of the global methane budget

The ongoing development of the Global Carbon Project (GCP) global methane (CH4) budget shows a continuation of increasing CH4 emissions and CH4 accumulation in the atmosphere during 2000–2017. Here, we decompose the global budget into 19 regions (18 land and 1 oceanic) and five key source sectors to spatially attribute the observed global trends. A comparison of top-down (TD) (atmospheric and transport model-based) and bottom-up (BU) (inventory- and process model-based) CH4 emission estimates demonstrates robust temporal trends with CH4 emissions increasing in 16 of the 19 regions. Five regions—China, Southeast Asia, USA, South Asia, and Brazil—account for >40% of the global total emissions (their anthropogenic and natural sources together totaling >270 Tg CH4 yr−1 in 2008–2017). Two of these regions, China and South Asia, emit predominantly anthropogenic emissions (>75%) and together emit more than 25% of global anthropogenic emissions. China and the Middle East show the largest increases in total emission rates over the 2000 to 2017 period with regional emissions increasing by >20%. In contrast, Europe and Korea and Japan show a steady decline in CH4 emission rates, with total emissions decreasing by ~10% between 2000 and 2017. Coal mining, waste (predominantly solid waste disposal) and livestock (especially enteric fermentation) are dominant drivers of observed emissions increases while declines appear driven by a combination of waste and fossil emission reductions. As such, together these sectors present the greatest risks of further increasing the atmospheric CH4 burden and the greatest opportunities for greenhouse gas abatement.

Global Carbon Project (GCP)↗

NASA NTRS2022

Detecting the Greatest Changes in Global Satellite-Based Precipitation Observations

In recent years, the analysis of abrupt and non-abrupt changes in precipitation has received much attention due to the importance of climate change-related issues (e.g., extreme climate events). In this study, we used a novel segmentation algorithm, DBEST (Detecting Breakpoints and Estimating Segments in Trend), to analyze the greatest changes in precipitation using a monthly pixel-based satellite precipitation dataset (TRMM 3B43) at three different scales: (i) global, (ii) continental, and (iii) climate zone, during the 1998–2019 period. We found significant breakpoints, 14.1%, both in the form of abrupt and non-abrupt changes, in the global scale precipitation at the 0.05 significance level. Most of the abrupt changes were observed near the Equator in the Pacific Ocean and Asian continent, relative to the rest of the globe. Most detected breakpoints occurred during the 1998–1999 and 2009–2011 periods on the global scale. The average precipitation change for the detected breakpoint was ±100 mm, with some regions reaching ±3000 mm. For instance, most portions of northern Africa and Asia experienced major changes of approximately +100 mm. In contrast, most of the South Pacific and South Atlantic Ocean experienced changes of −100 mm during the studied period. Our findings indicated that the larger areas of Africa (23.9%), Asia (22.9%), and Australia (15.4%) experienced significant precipitation breakpoints compared to North America (11.6%), South America (9.3%), Europe (8.3%), and Oceania (9.6%). Furthermore, we found that the majority of detected significant breakpoints occurred in the arid (31.6%) and polar (24.1%) climate zones, while the least significant breakpoints were found for snow-covered (11.5%), equatorial (7.5%), and warm temperate (7.7%) climate zones. Positive breakpoints’ temporal coverage in the arid (54.0%) and equatorial (51.9%) climates were more than those in other climates zones. Here, the findings indicated that large areas of Africa and Asia experienced significant changes in precipitation (−250 to +250 mm). Compared to the average state (trend during a specific period), the greatest changes in precipitation were more abrupt and unpredictable, which might impose a severe threat to the ecology, environment, and natural resources.

Breakpoint↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Intercomparing Open Source Surface Water Extent Mapping Products & Software Packages

The open source revolution of Earth Observation (EO) science has resulted in increased openness of EO data, workflows to transform that data into end products (e.g. surface water extent maps), and the products themselves. However, this revolution has oversaturated decision-makers with products that can give conflicting results. Thus, it is increasingly crucial for scientists to communicate their methodologies and assumptions so scientific products can be used accurately. Recognizing this challenge, SERVIR – a joint initiative between NASA, USAID, and geospatial organizations in Asia, Africa, and Latin America – is conducting a regional intercomparison of open source surface water extent products and packages. SERVIR’s Hindu Kush Himalaya and Southeast Asia “hubs” have developed satellite-based surface water mapping services involving customizable code packages that are operationally run at each hub. These services are regionally and locally tailored to inform specific decisions and early actions. Conversely, the scientific community has released surface water products that are global or near-global, but are not customizable. These packages and products employ different methodologies and sensors, causing decision-makers to evaluate trade-offs related to physical sensor characteristics (e.g. spectral, temporal, and spatial resolution, and latency). We will discuss the tradeoffs, strengths, and weaknesses of the sensor characteristics and methodologies associated with each product/package, and provide preliminary results of a validation effort intercomparing products/packages for case studies in South and Southeast Asia. Understanding the strengths and weaknesses of these products is crucial in both the aftermath of a flood event and in preparing for future floods.

Micky Maganini↗

NASA NTRS2014

Assessing the Impact of Laurentide Ice-sheet Topography on Glacial Climate

Simulations of past climates require altered boundary conditions to account for known shifts in the Earth system. For the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and subsequent deglaciation, the existence of large Northern Hemisphere ice sheets caused profound changes in surface topography and albedo. While ice-sheet extent is fairly well known, numerous conflicting reconstructions of ice-sheet topography suggest that precision in this boundary condition is lacking. Here we use a high-resolution and oxygen-isotopeenabled fully coupled global circulation model (GCM) (GISS ModelE2-R), along with two different reconstructions of the Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS) that provide maximum and minimum estimates of LIS elevation, to assess the range of climate variability in response to uncertainty in this boundary condition.We present this comparison at two equilibrium time slices: the LGM, when differences in ice-sheet topography are maximized, and 14 ka, when differences in maximum ice-sheet height are smaller but still exist. Overall, we find significant differences in the climate response to LIS topography, with the larger LIS resulting in enhanced Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and warmer surface air temperatures, particularly over northeastern Asia and the North Pacific. These up- and downstream effects are associated with differences in the development of planetary waves in the upper atmosphere, with the larger LIS resulting in a weaker trough over northeastern Asia that leads to the warmer temperatures and decreased albedo from snow and sea-ice cover. Differences between the 14 ka simulations are similar in spatial extent but smaller in magnitude, suggesting that climate is responding primarily to the larger difference in maximum LIS elevation in the LGM simulations. These results suggest that such uncertainty in ice-sheet boundary conditions alone may significantly impact the results of paleoclimate simulations and their ability to successfully simulate past climates, with implications for estimating climate sensitivity to greenhouse gas forcing utilizing past climate states.

glaciology↗

NASA NTRS2015

Using Single-Scattering Albedo Spectral Curvature to Characterize East Asian Aerosol Mixtures

Spectral dependence of aerosol single-scattering albedo (SSA) has been used to infer aerosol composition. In particular, aerosol mixtures dominated by dust absorption will have monotonically increasing SSA with wavelength while that dominated by black carbon absorption has monotonically decreasing SSA spectra. However, by analyzing SSA measured at four wavelengths, 440, 675, 870, and 1020 nm from the Aerosol Robotic Network data set, we find that the SSA spectra over East Asia are frequently peaked at 675 nm. In these cases, we suggest that SSA spectral curvature, defined as the negative of the second derivative of SSA as a function of wavelength, can provide additional information on the composition of these aerosol mixtures. Aerosol SSA spectral curvatures for East Asia during fall and winter are considerably larger than those found in places primarily dominated by biomass burning or dust aerosols. SSA curvature is found to increase as the SSA magnitude decreases. The curvature increases with coarse mode fraction (CMF) to a CMF value of about 0.4, then slightly decreases or remains constant at larger CMF. Mie calculations further verify that the strongest SSA curvature occurs at approx. 40% dust fraction, with 10% scattering aerosol fraction. The nonmonotonic SSA spectral dependence is likely associated with enhanced absorption in the shortwave by dust, absorption by black carbon at longer wavelengths, and also the flattened absorption optical depth spectral dependence due to the increased particle size.

curvature↗

NASA NTRS2015

Introducing GFWED: The Global Fire Weather Database

The Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) System is the mostly widely used fire danger rating system in the world. We have developed a global database of daily FWI System calculations, beginning in 1980, called the Global Fire WEather Database (GFWED) gridded to a spatial resolution of 0.5 latitude by 2-3 longitude. Input weather data were obtained from the NASA Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA), and two different estimates of daily precipitation from rain gauges over land. FWI System Drought Code calculations from the gridded data sets were compared to calculations from individual weather station data for a representative set of 48 stations in North, Central and South America, Europe, Russia,Southeast Asia and Australia. Agreement between gridded calculations and the station-based calculations tended to be most different at low latitudes for strictly MERRA based calculations. Strong biases could be seen in either direction: MERRA DC over the Mato Grosso in Brazil reached unrealistically high values exceeding DCD1500 during the dry season but was too low over Southeast Asia during the dry season. These biases are consistent with those previously identified in MERRAs precipitation, and they reinforce the need to consider alternative sources of precipitation data. GFWED can be used for analyzing historical relationships between fire weather and fire activity at continental and global scales, in identifying large-scale atmosphereocean controls on fire weather, and calibration of FWI-based fire prediction models.

bias↗

NASA NTRS2016

Comparing GOSAT Observations of Localized CO2 Enhancements by Large Emitters with Inventory-Based Estimates

We employed an atmospheric transport model to attribute column-averaged CO2 mixing ratios (XCO2) observed by Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT) to emissions due to large sources such as megacities and power plants. XCO2 enhancements estimated from observations were compared to model simulations implemented at the spatial resolution of the satellite observation footprint (0.1deg × 0.1deg). We found that the simulated XCO2 enhancements agree with the observed over several continental regions across the globe, for example, for North America with an observation to simulation ratio of 1.05 +/- 0.38 (p<0.1), but with a larger ratio over East Asia (1.22 +/- 0.32; p<0.05). The obtained observation-model discrepancy (22%) for East Asia is comparable to the uncertainties in Chinese emission inventories (approx.15%) suggested by recent reports. Our results suggest that by increasing the number of observations around emission sources, satellite instruments like GOSAT can provide a tool for detecting biases in reported emission inventories.

CO2↗

NASA NTRS1974

Analysis of satellite measurements of terrestrial radio noise

Worldwide distributions of terrestrial radio noise as monitored by Radio Astronomy Explorer 1 (RAE 1) generated and compared with CCIR predictions. These contour maps show the global morphology of radio noise at 6.55 and 9.18 MHz for fall, winter, spring and summer during the local time blocks of 00-08 LT and 16-24 LT. These computer produced maps show general agreement with CCIR predictions over large land masses. The RAE and CCIR maps diverge at high latitudes over Asia and frequently over ocean regions. Higher noise levels observed by RAE at high latitudes are attributed to magnetospheric emission while higher noise levels observed by RAE over Asia are attributable to high power transmitters. Analysis of RAE noise observations in conjunction with various geophysical phenomena showed no obvious correlation.

Bakalyar, G.↗

NASA NTRS1982

Short-term planetary-scale interactions over the tropics and midlatitudes during northern winter. I - Contrasts between active and inactive periods

Objectively analyzed 200 mb winds of four winters are used to study the short-term (several days) teleconnections between planetary-scale circulation components over the monsoon region. The composited structures suggest that during very actively northeasterly monsoon (surge) periods, the midlatitude and tropical circulation components vary in a coherent way. The jet streak and local Hadley circulation over East Asia, the divergent flow over the maritime continent, and the equatorial Walker circulations over the Pacific and Indian Oceans all strengthen steadily, while the secondary jet streak over West Asia weakens. During inactive (break) periods the midlatitude circulation components all exhibit reversed changes, while the variations in the tropics are less coherent, although still showing reversed tendencies. The results basically verify the short-term teleconnection model proposed by Chang and Lau (1980), but more complex processes in the acceleration of the midlatitude jet streaks are indicated. In addition, the contrast between the very active and break monsoon periods suggests the relative importance of tropical versus midlatitudinal forcings in different regions of the monsoon circulation.

Chang, C.-P.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Short-term planetary-scale interactions over the tropics and midlatitudes. II - Winter-MONEX period

The FGGE/winter-Monex wind data from 850 and 200 mb are used to analyze the short-term teleconnections over the tropical and midlatitude Pacific and monsoonal surges in the winter of 1978-79. The data were taken twice a day, and included the total wind field, the computed rotational and divergent winds, the velocity potential, and the streamfunction. Cold surges were identified from shipboard data over the South China Sea and characterized an increase in the surface northerly wind and a surface pressure differential between Hong Kong and 30 deg N, 115 deg E. Midlatitude baroclinic disturbances triggered the cold surges, which displayed intensities dependent on the strength of the midlatitude anticyclogenesis and the intensity of the East Asia local Hadley cell. Fluctuations in the 200 mb jet streak over Japan indicated changes in eddy behavior over the North Pacific and the intensity of the East Asia local Hadley cell circulation and tropical convection. It was concluded that midlatitude synoptic systems could force equatorial convection that produces remote midlatitude responses.

Lau, K.-M.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Planetary Scale Interactions

Atmospheric teleconnections in the medium to long (10-90 days) time scales focusing on the interactions between extratropical circulation and tropical convection are studied. In a continuing effort to study short-term climate variability and atmospheric teleconnection as inferred from satellite observed outgoing longwave radiation, the low frequency variability (LFB) of tropical and extratropical cloud fluctuation over the Pacific was studied. It was found that during the Northern winter, the LFV of tropical cloud fluctuation is dominated by a 40-50 day dipole-like oscillation linking convection over Indonesia and the equatorial central Pacific. Eastward propagating signals appearing as outbursts of convective cloud clusters originating from the Indian Ocean appear to periodically feed energy into this dipole oscillation. It was also found that there are cloud features appearing over East Asia and subsequently over the eastern North Pacific which vary coherently with the tropical dipole anomaly. Based on analysis and an a priori phenomenological model, it is believed that the cloud fluctuations are associated with two space/time extended normal modes of tropical-extratropical interactions over the Pacific involving a coupling between the tropical dipole convective heating anomaly with cold surges over East Asia, and blocking over the eastern North Pacific respectively.

Lau, W. K. M.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Electrophoretic enzyme analysis of North American and eastern Asian populations of Agastache sect. Agastache (Labiatae)

Genetic relationships among the seven species of Agastache sect. Agastache common in North America and the one found in eastern Asia were assessed using starch-gel electrophoresis of twelve enzymatic proteins. Nei's (1976) genetic distance and identity values, calculated among the 32 populations used in this study, partitioned the Agastache section into four discrete groups: (1) A. nepetoides (eastern North America), (2) A. scrophulariifolia and A. foeniculum (eastern and central North America), (3) the four species of the western U.S. (A. urticifolia, A. occidentalis, A. parvifolia, and A. cusickii), and (4) A. rugosa (eastern Asia). The Asian Agastache, separated from its American congeners for over 12 million years, differed from American populations at only two (the IDH-1 and LAP-1 alleles) of the fifteen loci surveyed; these alleles were not found in any of the North American plants. Nei's genetic distances between the Asian and North American populations ranged from 0.2877 to 0.6734.

Vogelmann, James E.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Earth observations during Space Shuttle flight STS-27: A high latitude observations opportunity - 2-6 December 1988

The earth observations from the STS-27 mission on December 2-6, 1988 are reported. The film and generic scene characteristics chosen for the mission are given. Results are given from geological observations of the Ruwenzori Mountains between Uganda and Zaire, four rift valley systems in Africa and Asia, and several volcanoes and impact craters. Environmental observations of Africa, the Middle East, South Asia, North America and the Soviet Union, are presented. Also, meteorological and oceanographic observations are discussed. The uniqueness of the high-inclination winter launch of the STS-27 mission for obtaining observations of specific features is noted.

Whitehead, Victor S.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Total solar eclipse of 1995 October 24

A total eclipse of the sun will be visible from Asia and the Pacific Ocean on 24 Oct. 1995. The path of the moon's shadow begins in the Middle East and sweeps across India, Southeast Asia, and the waters of the Indonesian archipelago before ending at sunset in the Pacific. Detailed predictions for this event are presented and include besselian elements, geographic coordinates of the path of totality, physical ephemeris of the umbra, topocentric limb profile corrections, local circumstances for 400 cities, maps of the eclipse path, weather prospects, the lunar limb profile, and the sky during totality.

Espenak, Fred↗

NASA NTRS1995

Total Solar Eclipse of 1997 March 9

A total eclipse of the Sun will be visible from Asia and the Pacific Ocean on 1997 March 9. The path of the Moon's umbral shadow begins in eastern Kazakhstan and travels through Mongolia and eastern Siberia, where it swings northward to end at sunset in the Arctic Ocean. A partial eclipse will be seen within the much broader path of the Moon's penumbral shadow, which includes eastern Asia, the northern Pacific, and the northwest corner of North America. Detailed predictions for this event are presented and include besselian elements, geographic coordinates of the path of totality, physical ephemeris of the umbra, topocentric limb profile corrections, local circumstances for 280 cities, maps of the eclipse path, weather prospects, the lunar limb profile, and the sky during totality. Tips and suggestions are also given on how to safely view and photograph the eclipse.

Espenak, Fred↗

NASA NTRS1994

Photochemical oxidant processes in the presence of dust: An evaluation of the impact of dust on particulate nitrate and ozone formation

The influence of dust on the tropospheric photochemical oxidant cycle is studied through the use of a detailed coupled aerosol and gas-phase chemistry model. Dust is a significant component of the troposphere throughout Asia and provides a surface for a variety of heterogeneous reactions. Dust is found to be an important surface for particulate nitrate formation. For dust loading and ambient concentrations representative of conditions in East Asia, particulate nitrate levels of 1.5-11.5 micrograms/cubic meter are predicted, consistent with measured levels in this region. Dust is also found to reduce NO(x) levels by up to 50%, HO2 concentrations by 20%-80%, and ozone production rates by up to 25%. The magnitude of the influence of dust is sensitive to mass concentration of the aerosol, relative humidity, and the value of the accommodation coefficient.

Zhang, Yang↗

NASA NTRS1997

Distributions of Beryllium 7 and Lead 210, and Soluble Aerosol-Associated Ionic Species Over the Western Pacific: PEM West B, February - March 1994

Aerosol sampling for the determination of the concentrations of soluble ionic species and the natural radionuclides Be-7 and Pb-210 was conducted from the NASA DC-8 over the western Pacific as part of GTE/PEM-West B during February - March 1994. Concentrations of most soluble ionic species in the free troposphere were higher in samples collected on flights originating from Hong Kong and Japan than those collected further east over the open ocean. In both regions the measured concentrations were higher than those found during PEM-West A (fall 1991). Activities of Pb-210, a tracer of air masses influenced by sources on the Asian continent, showed the same patterns. These data indicate the effect of stronger continental outflow from Asia over the western Pacific during the spring compared to fall season. For readily scavenged aerosol-associated species and soluble acidic gases the strongest indications of Asian outflow were restricted to altitudes below 6 km. The distribution of the continental tracer Pb-210 was also compared to those of a large number of gas phase species measured on the DC-8. Relatively strong correlations were found with O3, and peroxyacetylnitrate (PAN), but only during the flights over the remote Pacific. During PEM-West A, similar correlations were seen, but they were stronger near Asia. We believe that correlations are a signature of continental air that has been processed by deep wet convection over land before being advected over the ocean. One flight over the Sea of Japan provided the opportunity to sample upper troposphere/lower stratosphere air in and around a tropopause fold. Concentrations of Be-7 reached 7 pCi/cu m STP, and peak O3, mixing ratios of 480 ppb were encountered at 10.7 km. The Be-7 data are used to estimate the fraction of stratospheric air mixed down into the troposphere by circulation in the fold.

Dibb, J. E.↗