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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Regional and Temporal Variability of Atmospheric River Seasonality: Influences of Detection Algorithms and Moisture Transport Dynamics

Abstract Understanding the regional and temporal variability of atmospheric river (AR) seasonality is crucial for preparedness and mitigation of extreme events. While ARs were thought to peak in winter, recent research shows they exhibit region‐specific seasonality and are heavily influenced by the chosen detection algorithm. This study examines the link between the year‐to‐year consistency of peak‐AR activity to the presence of a dominant seasonal pattern, considering both location and algorithm choice. Regions are categorized by their temporal characteristics: consistent patterns (e.g., East Asia), patterns with occasional outliers (e.g., British Columbia coast), and regions lacking a clear dominant peak season (e.g., South Atlantic, parts of Australia). Hence, not all regions display a consistent seasonal cycle of AR activity. This study quantifies the extent to which a region experiences a dominant peak season of AR activity (or lacks one) and offers insights to enhance decision‐making in water management, natural hazard preparedness, and forecasting. Furthermore, given our finding that detection algorithms influence the peak season of AR activity, we also examine two diagnostic variables representative of moisture transport to corroborate our results. Integrated vapor transport, which captures meridional and zonal moisture transport, and Moist Wave Activity, representing moisture intrusions from lower to higher latitudes, are examined. Our analysis indicates that inconsistencies in the seasonal cycle of AR activity are not solely due to discrepancies in detection algorithms but also arise from changes in moisture transport. Plain Language Summary Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are critical weather phenomena that can cause extreme events like heavy rainfall and flooding. Understanding when and where ARs are most likely to occur throughout the year is essential for preparing and responding to these events. Traditionally, ARs were thought to peak in winter, but recent studies show this varies by region. Our study helps address the challenge decision‐makers face in anticipating and preparing for AR events by providing insights into the consistency of peak seasonal patterns across different areas. Some regions, like East Asia, and the British Columbia coast, show a consistent peak season, while others, like the South Atlantic and parts of Australia, have significant year‐to‐year variations, making it hard to identify a dominant season. To better understand these changes over time, the study also examines how moisture moves in the atmosphere, using Integrated Vapor Transport (which looks at moisture movement in various directions) and Moist Wave Activity (which tracks moisture shifts from lower to higher latitudes). The findings suggest that inconsistencies in AR patterns are due not only to detection methods but also due to changes in moisture transport. Key Points The peak season of atmospheric river activity can change depending on the year in some areas Interannual variations in the peak season can make identifying a dominant season challenging for some regions Frequent shifts in peak season across years reflect inconsistencies tied to detection algorithms and to underlying dynamics

Kamnani, Diya↗
DOE OSTI2026

The Role of Land‐Atmosphere Feedbacks in Midlatitude Wintertime Surface Temperature Variability

Accurately representing synoptic near-surface temperature variability is crucial to predict weather extremes, yet models remain biased. Existing studies primarily attribute wintertime midlatitude near-surface temperature variability to tropospheric large-scale advection, assuming minimal land influence. However, nudging the model's circulation toward observations yields little improvement in wintertime temperature variance over Northern Hemisphere land, suggesting that land-atmosphere interactions also warrant attention. We introduce a new scaling framework for temperature variance that incorporates local land-atmosphere feedbacks. Comparing our framework to the mixing length approach—which links temperature variance to the meridional temperature gradient and air parcel displacement (mixing length)—shows that land-atmosphere feedbacks are inherently embedded in the mixing length, a connection previously overlooked. Roles of land–atmosphere feedbacks are evaluated via model experiments with perturbed circulation, land, or both. We find that longwave radiative damping dominates temperature variance responses over meridional temperature gradient when both land and circulation are perturbed.

atmosheric science↗
DOE OSTI2025

Soil moisture-atmosphere interactions drive terrestrial carbon-water trade-offs

Soil moisture is coupled with vegetation and atmosphere, influencing global cycling of water, carbon, and energy. However, it remains unclear how soil moisture-atmosphere interactions affect land-atmosphere carbon and water exchanges simultaneously. Using Earth system model experiments, we show widespread carbon-water trade-offs between net ecosystem production and precipitation-minus-evapotranspiration driven by soil moisture dynamics. Soil moisture positively controls net ecosystem production and negatively affects precipitation-minus-evapotranspiration, through direct soil water stress and indirect soil moisture-atmosphere feedbacks. While soil moisture variability magnifies the interannual variability of net ecosystem production, it moderates that of precipitation-minus-evapotranspiration over land. These opposing effects lead to a pronounced carbon-water trade-off, which originates from the interplay between carbon acquisition through photosynthesis and water extraction through evapotranspiration. This trade-off is projected to intensify in a warming and drying future, as soil moisture increasingly regulates carbon and water exchanges, posing a serious challenge to sustaining both terrestrial carbon sink and water supply.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

The atmospheric importance of methylamine additions to Criegee intermediates

We report that Criegee intermediates are important targets for study in atmospheric chemistry because of their capacity to oxidize airborne species. Among these species, ammonia has received critical attention for its presence in polluted agricultural or industrial areas and its role in forming particulate matter and condensation nuclei. Although methylamine has been given less attention than ammonia, both theoretical and experimental studies have demonstrated that the additional methyl substitution on the ammonia derivatives increases the rate constants for some systems. This suggests that the methylamine addition to Criegee intermediates could be more significant to atmospheric processes. In this work, geometries are optimized at the DF-CCSD(T)/ANO1 level for the methylamine addition reactions to the simplest Criegee intermediate and the anti- and syn-methylated Criegee intermediates. Energies for each stationary point were computed at the CCSD(T)/CBS level with corrections from the CCSDT(Q) method. Rate constants are obtained for each reaction using canonical transition state theory. Although methylamine addition proved to be a more favorable reaction relative to ammonia addition, the significantly lower concentration of atmospheric methylamine limits the prevalence of these reactions, even in the most optimal conditions. It is unlikely that the methylamine addition to Criegee intermediates will contribute significantly to the consumption of Criegee intermediates in the atmosphere.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Theoretical analysis of the OH-initiated atmospheric oxidation reactions of imidazole

Imidazoles are present in Earth's atmosphere in both the gas-phase and in aerosol particles, and have been implicated in the formation of brown carbon aerosols. The gas-phase oxidation of imidazole (C 3 N 2 H 4 ) by hydroxyl radicals has been shown to be preferentially initiated via OH-addition to position C5, producing the 5-hydroxyimidazolyl radical adduct. However, the fate of this adduct upon reaction with O 2 in the atmospheric gas-phase is currently unknown. We employed an automated approach to investigate the reaction mechanism and kinetics of imidazole's OH-initiated gas-phase oxidation, in the presence of O 2 and NO x . The explored mechanism included reactions available to first-generation RO 2 radicals, as well as alkoxyl radicals produced from RO 2 + NO reactions. Product distributions were obtained by assembling and solving a master equation, under conditions relevant to the Earth's atmosphere. Our calculations show a complex, branched reaction mechanism, which nevertheless converges to yield two major closed-shell products: 4H-imidazol-4-ol (4H-4ol) and N,N′-diformylformamidine (FMF). At 298 K and 1 atm, we estimate the yields of 4H-4ol and FMF from imidazole oxidation initiated via OH-addition to position C5 to be 34 : 66, 12 : 85 and 2 : 95 under 10 ppt, 100 ppt and 1 ppb of NO respectively. This work also revealed O 2 -migration pathways between the α-N-imino peroxyl radical isomers. This reaction channel is fast for the first-generation RO 2 radicals, and may be important during the atmospheric oxidation of other unsaturated organic nitrogen compounds as well.

Almeida, Thomas Golin↗
DOE OSTI2024

Slitless spectrophotometry with forward modelling: Principles and application to measuring atmospheric transmission

Context.In the next decade, many optical surveys will aim to answer the question of the nature of dark energy by measuring its equation-of-state parameter at the per mill level. This requires trusting the photometric calibration of the survey with a precision never reached so far on many sources of systematic uncertainties. The measurement of the on-site atmospheric transmission for each exposure, or for each season or for the full survey on average, can help reach the per mill precision for the magnitudes. Aims.This work aims at proving the ability to use slitless spectroscopy for standard-star spectrophotometry and its use to monitor on-site atmospheric transmission as needed, for example, by theVera C. RubinObservatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time supernova cosmology program. We fully deal with the case of a disperser in the filter wheel, which is the configuration chosen in theRubinAuxiliary Telescope. Methods.The theoretical basis of slitless spectrophotometry is at the heart of our forward-model approach to extract spectroscopic information from slitless data. We developed a publicly available software calledSpectractor, which implements each ingredient of the model and finally performs a fit of a spectrogram model directly on image data to obtain the spectrum. Results.We show through simulations that our model allows us to understand the structure of spectrophotometric exposures. We also demonstrate its use on real data by solving specific issues and illustrating that our procedure allows the improvement of the model describing the data. Finally, we discuss how this approach can be used to directly extract atmospheric transmission parameters from the data and thus provide the base for on-site atmosphere monitoring. We show the efficiency of the procedure in simulations and test it on the limited available data set.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2020

Photonic methods and technologies for monitoring the ocean and atmosphere

In this paper, we review photonic methods and technologies that are promising for monitoring the ocean and atmosphere and have been implemented mainly in recent years at the Institute of Automation and Control Processes, Far Eastern Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences. We present results of lidar studies that have made it possible to understand key features of ocean – atmosphere interaction processes under continent – ocean transition conditions, which determine specific features of the atmospheric aerosol distribution, small gaseous components of the atmosphere and its optical characteristics. We consider methods and tools for combined optical and laser fluorescence monitoring of the ocean surface. Particular attention is paid to results of research on remote methods and tools for real-time laser-induced and laser fluorescence environmental monitoring of the ocean, including specialised fibre-optic probes and mobile underwater robotic systems. We present results of the development and investigation of highly sensitive, noise-proof fibre-optic hydro- and seismic/acoustic sensors for remote monitoring of the ocean and robotic systems for underwater laser protection of marine vessels, hydraulic structures and oceanographic instruments against the negative impact of biofouling. (invited paper)

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2025

Beyond standard model particles in the atmospheric flux: a long-lived stau example

We discuss fluxes of long-lived supersymmetric (SUSY) particles produced in the atmosphere from ultra-high energy cosmic-ray interactions with air nuclei. We consider long-lived particle production which proceeds first via the on-shell formation of heavier particles in the SUSY spectrum and then their decays. Specifically, we focus on the production of stau pairs from the decays of squarks produced in the initial cosmic ray-air collision under the purview of gauge-mediated symmetry breaking models that have the stau as the next-to-lightest SUSY particle. The calculation of the resulting stau flux schematically mirrors that of prompt atmospheric neutrino production, however, with the energy scale of initial hadronic collision set to EeV energy scales of the incident cosmic rays rather than the PeV energies where the prompt atmospheric neutrino fluxes dominate over neutrino fluxes from pions and kaons, and with the appropriate stau production cross section. We show the effect of accounting for the energy distribution of the staus relative to the squark energy distributions. We discuss the potential for future ultra-high energy detectors similar in scope to IceCube-Gen2 to detect atmospheric staus via tracks going through the detector volume. Current collider constraints on stau pair production within the SUSY framework considered here are more constraining than those from a detector like IceCube-Gen2 over ten years.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Atmospheric neutrinos in next-generation xenon and argon dark matter experiments

In this work, we study the sensitivity of future xenon- and argon-based dark matter and neutrino detection experiments to low-energy atmospheric neutrinos. Not accounting for experimental backgrounds, the primary obstacle for identifying nuclear recoils induced by atmospheric neutrinos in xenon is the tail of the electron recoil distribution due to pp solar neutrinos. We use the NEST code to model the solar and atmospheric neutrino signals in a xenon detector and find that an exposure of 700 tonne-years will produce a 5σ detection of atmospheric neutrinos. We explore the effect of different detector properties and find that a sufficiently long electron lifetime is essential to the success of such a measurement.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Amazon rainforest photosynthesis increases in response to atmospheric dryness

Earth system models predict that increases in atmospheric and soil dryness will reduce photosynthesis in the Amazon rainforest, with large implications for the global carbon cycle. Using in situ observations, solar-induced fluorescence, and nonlinear machine learning techniques, we show that, in reality, this is not necessarily the case: In many of the wettest parts of this region, photosynthesis and biomass tend to increase with increased atmospheric dryness, despite the associated reductions in canopy conductance to CO 2 . These results can be largely explained by changes in canopy properties, specifically, new leaves flushed during the dry season have higher photosynthetic capacity than the leaves they replace, compensating for the negative stomatal response to increased dryness. As atmospheric dryness will increase with climate change, our study highlights the importance of reframing how we represent the response of ecosystem photosynthesis to atmospheric dryness in very wet regions, to accurately quantify the land carbon sink.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Redox state of Earth’s magma ocean and its Venus-like early atmosphere

Exchange between a magma ocean and vapor produced Earth’s earliest atmosphere. Its speciation depends on the oxygen fugacity (fO 2 ) set by the Fe 3+ /Fe 2+ ratio of the magma ocean at its surface. Here, we establish the relationship between fO 2 and Fe 3+ /Fe 2+ in quenched liquids of silicate Earth-like composition at 2173 K and 1 bar. Mantle-derived rocks have Fe 3+ /(Fe 3+ +Fe 2+ ) = 0.037 ± 0.005, at which the magma ocean defines an fO 2 0.5 log units above the iron-wüstite buffer. At this fO 2 , the solubilities of H-C-N-O species in the magma ocean produce a CO-rich atmosphere. Cooling and condensation of H 2 O would have led to a prebiotic terrestrial atmosphere composed of CO 2 -N 2 , in proportions and at pressures akin to those observed on Venus. Present-day differences between Earth’s atmosphere and those of her planetary neighbors result from Earth’s heliocentric location and mass, which allowed geologically long-lived oceans, in-turn facilitating CO 2 drawdown and, eventually, the development of life.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Reconstruction of atmospheric neutrinos in DUNE’s horizontal-drift far-detector module

This paper reports on the capabilities in reconstructing and identifying atmospheric neutrino interactions in one of the Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment’s (DUNE) far detector modules, a liquid argon time projection chamber (LArTPC) with horizontal drift (FD-HD) of ionization electrons. The reconstruction is based upon the workflow developed for DUNE’s long-baseline oscillation analysis, with some necessary machine-learning models’ retraining and the addition of features relevant only to atmospheric neutrinos such as the neutrino direction reconstruction. Where relevant, the impact of the detection of the charged particles of the hadronic system is emphasized, and comparisons are carried out between the case when lepton-only information is considered in the reconstruction (as is the case for many neutrino oscillation experiments), versus when all particles identified in the LArTPC were included. Three neutrino direction reconstruction methods have been developed and studied for the atmospheric analyses: using lepton-only information, using all reconstructed particles, and using only correlations from reconstructed hits. The results indicate that incorporating more than just lepton information significantly improves the resolution of both neutrino direction and energy reconstruction. The angle reconstruction algorithms developed in this work result in no strong dependence on particle direction for reconstruction efficiencies or neutrino flavor identification. This comprehensive review of the reconstruction of atmospheric neutrinos in DUNE’s FD-HD LArTPC is the first step towards developing a first neutrino oscillation sensitivity analysis, which will ready DUNE for its first measurements.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Understanding the Biases in Global Monsoon Simulations from the Perspective of Atmospheric Energy Transport

Understanding global monsoon (GM) variability and projecting its future changes rely heavily on climate models. However, climate models generally show pronounced biases in GM simulations, and the reasons for this remain unclear. Here, in this study, we evaluate the performance of 20 pairs of climate models that participated in both phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and phase 6 of CMIP (CMIP6) and identify the sources of their GM simulation biases from an energy transport perspective. The multimodel mean improvement in CMIP6 compared to CMIP5 is demonstrated by the increasing skill scores for various GM metrics from 0.20–0.79 to 0.48–0.83. More specifically, the dry biases in the Northern Hemisphere Summer Monsoon (NHSM) precipitation in CMIP5 [root-mean-square error (RMSE): 1.85 mm day −1 ] are reduced in CMIP6 (RMSE: 1.66 mm day −1 ). This higher simulation skill is associated with higher skill in simulating the precipitation-solstitial mode, monsoon intensity, and monsoon domains. The improvement in the NHSM precipitation simulation results from that in the meridional transport of atmospheric energy. Atmospheric energy budget analysis shows that the negative biases in downward surface longwave radiation and northward energy transport are smaller in CMIP6 than in CMIP5 in the boreal summer, resulting in a more realistic interhemispheric thermal contrast and meridional gradient of moist static energy. However, a major weakness of the CMIP6 models is found in the Southern Hemisphere Summer Monsoon precipitation simulation due to the positive bias in the top-of-the-atmosphere downward longwave radiation. This study shows that reasonably reproducing the meridional global atmospheric energy transportation is necessary for skillful GM simulation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Low-Level Liquid-Bearing Clouds Contribute to Seasonal Lower Atmosphere Stability and Surface Energy Forcing over a High-Mountain Watershed Environment

Measurements of atmospheric structure and surface energy budgets distributed along a high-altitude moun tain watershed environment near Crested Butte, Colorado, from two separate, but coordinated, field campaigns, Surface Atmosphere Integrated field Laboratory (SAIL) and Study of Precipitation, the Lower Atmosphere, and Surface for Hydrometeorology (SPLASH), are analyzed. This study identifies similarities and differences in how clouds influence the radiative budget over one snow-free summer season (2022) and two snow-covered seasons (2021/22; 2022/23) for this alpine location. A relationship between lower-tropospheric stability stratification and longwave radiative flux from the presence or absence of clouds is identified. When low clouds persisted, often with signatures of supercooled liquid in win ter, the lower troposphere experienced weaker stability, while radiatively clear skies that are less likely to be influenced by liquid droplets were associated with appreciably stronger lower-tropospheric stratification. Corresponding surface turbu lent heat fluxes partitioned differently based upon the cloud–stability stratification regime derived from early morning radiosounding profiles. Combined with the differences in the radiative budget largely resulting from dramatic seasonal dif ferences in surface albedo, the lower atmosphere stratification, surface energy budget, and near-surface thermodynamics are shown to be modified by the effective longwave radiative forcing of clouds. The diurnal evolution of thermodynamics and surface energy components varied depending on the early morning stratification state. Thus, the importance of quies cent versus synoptically active large-scale meteorology is hypothesized as a critical forcing for cloud properties and associ ated surface energy budget variations. The physical relationships between clouds, radiation, and stratification can provide a useful suite of metrics for process understanding and to evaluate numerical models in such an undersampled, highly com plex terrain environment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Atmospheric effects on the laser-driven avalanche-based remote detection of radiation

Here, the effect of realistic atmospheric conditions on mid-IR (λ = 3.9 µm) and long-wave-IR (λ = 10 µm) laser-induced avalanche breakdown for the remote detection of radioactive material is examined experimentally and with propagation simulations. Our short-range in-lab mid-IR laser experiments show a correlation between increasing turbulence level and a reduced number of breakdown sites associated with a reduction in the portion of the focal volume above the breakdown threshold. Simulations of propagation through turbulence are in excellent agreement with these measurements and provide code validation. We then simulate propagation through realistic atmospheric turbulence over a long range (0.1–1 km) in the long-wave-IR regime (λ = 10 µm). The avalanche threshold focal volume is found to be robust even in the presence of strong turbulence, only dropping by ~50% over a propagation length of ~0.6 km. We also experimentally assess the impact of aerosols on avalanche-based detection, finding that, while background counts increase, a useful signal is extractable even at aerosol concentrations 10 5 times greater than what is typically observed in atmospheric conditions. Our results show promise for the long-range detection of radioactive sources under realistic atmospheric conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Towards robust laser beam propagation in atmospheric turbulence

High-fidelity optical propagation through the atmosphere is essential for free-space optical technologies, including laser-based remote sensing and optical communication. However, atmospheric turbulence severely distorts beams and compromises system performance. In this work, we employ hypergeometric-Gaussian (HyGG) vortex beams as probes to characterize and mitigate atmospheric turbulence. Using over 250,000 experimental and simulated frames, we show that refining the power spectrum density (PSD) can reduce numerical prediction errors by up to 79.8%. Concurrently, experimental observations supported by numerical simulations demonstrate that HyGG beams exhibit superior turbulence resilience across multiple metrics compared to conventional Gaussian beams, particularly in their ability to withstand over 5 times stronger turbulence while maintaining similar intensity fluctuations. These dual investigations, on both turbulence mitigation and robust beam solutions, converge to form a unified strategy for enhancing free-space optical system performance. Collectively, our findings provide new insights into light–turbulence interactions and highlight the practical utility of vortex beams under atmospheric conditions.

Zhang, Boyu↗
DOE OSTI2021

Modeling geogenic and atmospheric nitrogen through the East River Watershed, Colorado Rocky Mountains

There is a growing understanding of the role that bedrock weathering can play as a source of nitrogen (N) to soils, groundwater and river systems. The significance is particularly apparent in mountainous environments where weathering fluxes can be large. However, our understanding of the relative contributions of rock-derived, or geogenic, N to the total N supply of mountainous watersheds remains poorly understood. In this study, we develop the High-Altitude Nitrogen Suite of Models (HAN-SoMo), a watershed-scale ensemble of process-based models to quantify the relative sources, transformations, and sinks of geogenic and atmospheric N through a mountain watershed. Our study is based in the East River Watershed (ERW) in the Upper Colorado River Basin. The East River is a near-pristine headwater watershed underlain primarily by an N-rich Mancos Shale bedrock, enabling the timing and magnitude of geogenic and atmospheric contributions to watershed scale dissolved N-exports to be quantified. Several calibration scenarios were developed to explore equifinality using >1600 N concentration measurements from streams, groundwater, and vadose zone samples collected over the course of four years across the watershed. When accounting for recycling of N through plant litter turnover, rock weathering accounts for approximately 12% of the annual dissolved N sources to the watershed in the most probable calibration scenario (0–31% in other scenarios), and 21% (0–44% in other scenarios) when considering only “new” N sources (i.e. geogenic and atmospheric). On an annual scale, instream dissolved N elimination, plant turnover (including cattle grazing) and atmospheric deposition are the most important controls on N cycling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Quantifying the Potential Atmospheric Leakage Risks Associated With the Geologic Storage of CO 2 in Saline Aquifers for Use in Voluntary Carbon Market Buffer Account Determination

Conference paper presented at 17th International Conference on Greenhouse Gas Control Technologies (GHGT-17), Calgary, Alberta, Canada, October 20–24, 2024. This paper presents the results of a detailed study into the potential atmospheric leakage risks associated with the geologic storage of CO 2 in saline aquifers. This study included a detailed literature review, a re-creation of existing CO 2 leakage models put forth by other authors and, lastly, the development of an enhanced model that can be utilized for assessing the potential losses to the atmosphere of stored CO 2 across a variety of potential project parameters. The results of this study indicate that, across broad ranges of input parameters for mechanisms that have the potential for CO 2 loss from the storage complex to the atmosphere, there is an extremely low risk of CO 2 leakage to the atmosphere, with the median leakage risk estimated to be 0.1% of total injected CO 2 . The risk of leakage from real-world storage projects is likely to be even lower than those estimated through this study.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗