Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Bayes Methods”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 289 records · Page 16
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1990

Methods for evaluating the predictive accuracy of structural dynamic models

Uncertainty of frequency response using the fuzzy set method and on-orbit response prediction using laboratory test data to refine an analytical model are emphasized with respect to large space structures. Two aspects of the fuzzy set approach were investigated relative to its application to large structural dynamics problems: (1) minimizing the number of parameters involved in computing possible intervals; and (2) the treatment of extrema which may occur in the parameter space enclosed by all possible combinations of the important parameters of the model. Extensive printer graphics were added to the SSID code to help facilitate model verification, and an application of this code to the LaRC Ten Bay Truss is included in the appendix to illustrate this graphics capability.

Hasselman, T. K.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Crustal deformation measurements in central Japan determined by a Global Positioning System fixed-point network

Results are presented from temporally dense measurements of crustal deformation associated with the convergence of the Eurasian (EUR), Pacific, North American, and Philippine Sea (PHS) plates, carried out in April 1988 by a 10-station GPS fixed-point network established in central Japan. Using regional orbit relaxation methods, the analysis of the first 17-month data revealed significant horizontal deformation across the Suruga trough. Namely, it was found that a site in the northern tip of PHS plate moved nearly westward with a velocity of 28 +/-5 mm per year, and a site at the southeastern tip of EUR plate moved south-southwestward with a velocity of 18 +/-5 mm per year. A significant vertical uplift with a velocity of 20 mm/yr was detected at a site inland of the Tokai district located in the Akaishi uplift zone and at a site on the Hatsushima Island in Sagami Bay.

Shimada, Seiichi↗
NASA NTRS1991

Knowledge-based decision support for Space Station assembly sequence planning

A complete Personal Analysis Assistant (PAA) for Space Station Freedom (SSF) assembly sequence planning consists of three software components: the system infrastructure, intra-flight value added, and inter-flight value added. The system infrastructure is the substrate on which software elements providing inter-flight and intra-flight value-added functionality are built. It provides the capability for building representations of assembly sequence plans and specification of constraints and analysis options. Intra-flight value-added provides functionality that will, given the manifest for each flight, define cargo elements, place them in the National Space Transportation System (NSTS) cargo bay, compute performance measure values, and identify violated constraints. Inter-flight value-added provides functionality that will, given major milestone dates and capability requirements, determine the number and dates of required flights and develop a manifest for each flight. The current project is Phase 1 of a projected two phase program and delivers the system infrastructure. Intra- and inter-flight value-added were to be developed in Phase 2, which has not been funded. Based on experience derived from hundreds of projects conducted over the past seven years, ISX developed an Intelligent Systems Engineering (ISE) methodology that combines the methods of systems engineering and knowledge engineering to meet the special systems development requirements posed by intelligent systems, systems that blend artificial intelligence and other advanced technologies with more conventional computing technologies. The ISE methodology defines a phased program process that begins with an application assessment designed to provide a preliminary determination of the relative technical risks and payoffs associated with a potential application, and then moves through requirements analysis, system design, and development.

Source record↗
DOE OSTI2025

Mass ordering sum rule for the neutrino disappearance channels in T2K, NOvA, and JUNO

We revisit, reformulate, and extend a method for determining the neutrino mass ordering by using precision measurements of the atmospheric Δ m 2 s in both electron and muon neutrino disappearance channels, first proposed by the authors in 2005 [H. Nunokawa , Phys. Rev. D 72, 013009 (2005)]. The mass ordering is a very important outstanding question for our understanding of the elusive neutrino and determination of the mass ordering has consequences to particle physics, nuclear physics, and cosmology. The JUNO reactor experiment will start data taking this year, and the precision of the atmospheric Δ m 2 s from electron antineutrino measurements will improve by a factor of 3 from Daya Bay’s 2.4% to 0.8% within a year. This measurement, when combined with the atmospheric Δ m 2 ’s measurements from T2K and NOvA for muon neutrino disappearance, will contribute substantially to the Δ χ 2 between the two remaining neutrino mass orderings. In this paper we derive for the first time a mass ordering sum rule that can be used to address the possibility that JUNO’s atmospheric Δ m 2 ’s measurement, when combined with other experiments in particular T2K and NOvA, can determine the neutrino mass ordering at the 3 σ confidence level within one year of operation. For a confidence level of 5 σ in a single experiment, we will have to wait until the middle of the next decade when the DUNE experiment is operating.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
NASA NTRS1993

Piloting Vertical Flight Aircraft: A Conference on Flying Qualities and Human Factors

This document contains papers from a specialists' meeting entitled "Piloting Vertical Flight Aircraft. A Conference on Flying Qualities and Human Factors." The conference was co-sponsored by the American Helicopter Society--San Francisco Bay Chapter, and the NASA Ames Research Center. It was held January 20-22, 1993 at the Sheraton Hotel Fisherman's Wharf, San Francisco, California. Vertical flight aircraft, including helicopters and a variety of Vertical Takeoff and Landing (VTOL) concepts, place unique requirements on human perception, control, and performance for the conduct of their design missions. The intent of this conference was to examine, for these vehicles, advances in: (1) design of flight control systems for ADS-33C standards; (2) assessment of human factors influences of cockpit displays and operational procedures; (3) development of VTOL design and operational criteria; and (4) development of theoretical methods or models for predicting pilot-vehicle performance and mission suitability. Recognizing that human capabilities and limitations form an integral aspect of the operations for these classes of vehicles, a secondary goal of the conference was to provide an initial venue for enhanced interaction between human factors and handling qualities specialists.

Helicopter↗
NASA NTRS1994

An experiment in hurricane track prediction using parallel computing methods

The barotropic model is used to explore the advantages of parallel processing in deterministic forecasting. We apply this model to the track forecasting of hurricane Elena (1985). In this particular application, solutions to systems of elliptic equations are the essence of the computational mechanics. One set of equations is associated with the decomposition of the wind into irrotational and nondivergent components - this determines the initial nondivergent state. Another set is associated with recovery of the streamfunction from the forecasted vorticity. We demonstrate that direct parallel methods based on accelerated block cyclic reduction (BCR) significantly reduce the computational time required to solve the elliptic equations germane to this decomposition and forecast problem. A 72-h track prediction was made using incremental time steps of 16 min on a network of 3000 grid points nominally separated by 100 km. The prediction took 30 sec on the 8-processor Alliant FX/8 computer. This was a speed-up of 3.7 when compared to the one-processor version. The 72-h prediction of Elena's track was made as the storm moved toward Florida's west coast. Approximately 200 km west of Tampa Bay, Elena executed a dramatic recurvature that ultimately changed its course toward the northwest. Although the barotropic track forecast was unable to capture the hurricane's tight cycloidal looping maneuver, the subsequent northwesterly movement was accurately forecasted as was the location and timing of landfall near Mobile Bay.

Song, Chang G.↗
NASA NTRS1980

Vector analogues of the Maggi-Rubinowicz theory of edge diffraction

The Maggi-Rubinowicz technique for scalar and electromagnetic fields is interpreted as a transformation of an integral over an open surface to a line integral around its rim. Maggi-Rubinowicz analogues are found for several vector physical optics representations. For diffraction from a circular aperture, a numerical comparison between these formulations shows the two methods are in agreement. To circumvent certain convergence difficulties in the Maggi-Rubinowicz integrals that occur as the observer approaches the shadow boundary, a variable mesh integration is used. For the examples considered, where the ratio of the aperture diameter to wavelength is about ten, the Maggi-Rubinowicz formulation yields an 8 to 10 fold decrease in computation time relative to the physical optics formulation.

Meneghini, R.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Orion Capsule Parachute Assembly System (CPAS) Overload Testing Approach and Results

The qualification of the Orion Capsule Parachute Assembly System (CPAS) system includes exposure to loads and dynamic pressures above the required values as validation of the parachutes' structural integrity. As outlined in the certification plan, each of the four parachutes of the system are to be subjected to 110% of their respective maximum dynamic pressure requirements. The Main and Drogue parachutes have satisfied this overload condition in drop testing and due to cost and schedule constraints, the Forward Bay Cover Parachute (FBCP) and Pilot parachute were subjected to the overload condition in the ground testing described in this document. The test objectives and pass/fail criteria were established and require the parachutes to achieve and maintain a target riser load (associated with a minimum of 110% dynamic pressure overload) for a minimum of three seconds while sustaining no failures of any structural members (vent hoop, radials, suspension line) or any damage which propagates into catastrophic failure of the canopy. Considering the assumptions and limitations associated with the ground testing (primarily non-uniform flow field of the ground test system and variations in parachute manufacturing), a method of establishing the desired overload condition was determined by the technical community and covers the 2-sigma bounds of the drag area distribution derived from drop testing. On June 27, 2017 the testing was executed at the High Velocity Airflow System (HiVAS) facility located at the Weapon Survivability Laboratory (WSL) at the Naval Air Warfare Center, Weapons Division (NAWCWD) China Lake. Engineering Development Unit (EDU) parachutes were used as pathfinders to gain experience with achieving the test conditions. Additional runs were executed to measure the airflow at the same location as the canopy skirt, although this data is not required to satisfy the test objectives and parachute pass/fail criteria. The qualification parachutes were successfully exposed to the target conditions and sustained only minor damage.

Daum, Jared S.↗
NASA NTRS2018

TPSAS-NF1676L-30290-DND

The Summer 2017 Ozone Water Land Environmental Transition Study (OWLETS) mission set out to compare the differences in ozone concentrations between inland measurements of air quality, specifically at Langley Research Center (LaRC), and measurements taken over water, specifically on the Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel (CBBT), as well as the vertical profiles above each location. Current weather models often predict a gradient in ozone concentration between land and ocean and this campaign attempted to capture this difference using hand-held Personal Ozone Monitors (POMs) in correspondence to ozonesondes and LIDAR measurements. The Tropospheric Emissions: Monitoring of Pollution (TEMPO) is the first geostationary satellite that will take hourly measurements to monitor air pollutants across North America using solar backscatter. The small footprint allows for higher spatial resolution readings of many parameters including O3, NO2 , and aerosol. TEMPO’s higher resolution readings would benefit from validation techniques on the ground. Validation methods usually include comparison to air quality monitoring stations, but they could also incorporate other forms of validation such as comparison to small sensors. In cooperation with TEMPO, OWLETS aims to provide the user community high resolution temporal and spatial, both horizontal and vertical, variability of O3 simultaneously over the land and water during various air quality events to improve forecast models and air quality satellite retrievals. Together, these missions will improve spatial resolution and capture temporal variability of air quality over North America.

Emily Gargulinski↗
NASA NTRS1986

Automatic discovery of optimal classes

A criterion, based on Bayes' theorem, is described that defines the optimal set of classes (a classification) for a given set of examples. This criterion is transformed into an equivalent minimum message length criterion with an intuitive information interpretation. This criterion does not require that the number of classes be specified in advance, this is determined by the data. The minimum message length criterion includes the message length required to describe the classes, so there is a built in bias against adding new classes unless they lead to a reduction in the message length required to describe the data. Unfortunately, the search space of possible classifications is too large to search exhaustively, so heuristic search methods, such as simulated annealing, are applied. Tutored learning and probabilistic prediction in particular cases are an important indirect result of optimal class discovery. Extensions to the basic class induction program include the ability to combine category and real value data, hierarchical classes, independent classifications and deciding for each class which attributes are relevant.

Cheeseman, Peter↗
DOE OSTI2026

Optimal Methods for Estimating Cactus Pear Biomass Using Cladode Dimensions of Morphologically Diverse Accessions

Current allometric methods for photosynthetic-stem (cladode) plants, such as cactus pear (Opuntia spp.), require refinement to be used in field settings in which diverse accessions are grown. We analysed cladode dimensional data using 14 accessions representing four species and two hybrids to quantify statistically significant morphological differences among accessions and derived cross-accession models to approximate cladode fresh weight. A Box model using cladode dimensions (e.g., length, width, thickness and diameter) and factorial combinations of these measures (e.g., length*width*thickness*diameter vs. fresh weight) resulted in the highest coefficient of determination (R 2 = 0.95 general fit) across all accessions for estimating fresh weight along with parsimony estimates using the Schwarz–Bayes Criterion (SBC), which assesses the most consistent performance on individual accessions. A Fitting-box modelling approach used the measured cladode area captured using ImageJ (R 2 = 0.93 general fit). Lastly, an Elliptical model used an elliptical approximation for the measured area and performed well over all accessions (R 2 = 0.94 general fit) while avoiding extensive manual measurements. These models meet or exceed the performance of previously published approaches when applied across morphologically diverse accessions, providing efficient tools for nondestructive estimation of cactus pear biomass under the conditions tested.

Opuntia↗
NASA NTRS2005

Technical Consultation of the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) Nickel Hydrogen (NiH2) Battery Charge Capacity Prediction

The purpose of the GSFC position paper is to identify critical HST milestone dates for continued science studies followed by the attachment of a re-entry module or a robotic servicing mission. The paper examines the viability of the HST with respect to the NiH2 continued battery charge capacity. In the course of the assessment, it was recognized that the HST battery thermal control system has an average heat dissipation limitation of 30 W per bay per orbit cycle. This thermal constraint will continue to govern options for battery capacity maintenance. In addition, the HST usage represents the longest exposure ofNiH2 batteries to Low Earth Orbit (LEO) at the current level of Depth of Discharge (DOD). Finally, the current battery life is at the limit predicted by the manufacturer, Eaglepicher. Therefore, given these factors, the potential exists that the HST battery capacities could radically degrade at any point. Given this caveat on any life extrapolations, the conservative model proposed in the GSFC position paper was viewed by the NESC as having several technical assumptions such as limited utilization of flight battery capacity data, the susceptibility of the proposed prediction method to large variations when supplemented with additional information, and the failure to qualitatively or quantitatively assess life prediction sensitivities. The NESC conducted an independent evaluation of the supporting information and assumptions to generate the predictions for battery capacity loss and practicality of on-orbit battery conditioning.

Gentz, Steven J.↗
NASA NTRS1973

Coastal and submarine features on MSS imagery of Southeastern Massachusetts: Comparison with conventional maps

Three ERTS-1, MSS images of southeastern Massachusetts, including Cape Cod Bay, Cape Cod, and Nantucket Sound, show a variety of dynamic geologic and hydrologic phenomena. Coastal features imaged include the coastline at different time in the tidal cycle, harbors, lakes and ponds, marshes (wetlands), and beach and dune areas; submarine features include tidal flats, shoals, dredged and natural channels, and bars. Comparison with conventional maps at 1:1,000,000 and 1:250,000 scales show many inaccuracies between the ERTS imagery and the two map scales. The ERTS-1 imagery can be used to increase the accuracy of these maps, portray additional environmental information, and provide the capability for frequent updating of maps at such scales. ERTS-1 imagery provides a very cost effective method for provision of certain types of environmental data for Cape Cod and environs.

Williams, R. S., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Design and Use of a Guided Weight Impactor to Impart Barely Visible Impact Damage

Aircraft structure is required to demonstrate satisfaction of the FAR requirements for Category 1, such as barely visible impact damage (BVID). Typical aircraft structure is impacted using a dropped weight impactor, which can impart BVID to the top surface of the structure. A recent test of a multi-bay box (MBB) composite test article, that represents an 80% scale center section of a hybrid wing body aircraft, required impact to be in a direction other than vertical from above, but still in an direction that is normal to the surface. This requirement eliminated the use of the conventional dropped weight impactor. Therefore, a design study was undertaken to determine the most effective way to efficiently and reliably impact the MBB. The chosen design was a guided weight impactor that is gravity driven. This paper describes the design of the guided weight impactor, and presents the results of its use for imparting BVID to the MBB. The guided weight impactor was seen to be a very reliable method to impart BVID, while at the same time having the capability to be highly configurable for use on other aircraft structure that is impacted at a variety of impact energies and from a variety of directions.

Lovejoy, Andrew E.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Learning earthquake ground motions via conditional generative modeling

Predicting high-fidelity ground motions for future earthquakes is crucial for seismic hazard assessment and infrastructure resilience. Conventional empirical simulations suffer from sparse sensor distribution and geographically localized earthquake locations, while physics-based methods are computationally intensive and require accurate representations of Earth structures and earthquake sources. We propose an artificial intelligence (AI) spectrogram generator, Conditional Generative Modeling for Ground Motion (CGM-GM). CGM-GM leverages earthquake magnitudes and geographic coordinates of earthquakes and sensors as inputs, when postprocessed with phase information, capturing spatially continuous Fourier amplitude spectra (FAS) as well as properties such as P and S arrivals, and waveform durations, without explicit physics constraints. This is achieved through a probabilistic autoencoder that extracts latent distributions in the time-frequency domain and variational sequential models for prior and posterior distributions. We evaluate the performance of CGM-GM using small-magnitude earthquake records from the San Francisco Bay Area, a region with high seismic risks. Here, we report that CGM-GM demonstrates potential for complementing physics-based simulations and non-ergodic empirical ground motion models, as well as shows promise in seismology and beyond.

geophysics↗
DOE OSTI2026

Polariton Control of Molecular Charge Transfer in Perylene Diimide Semiconductors

We report the modulation of molecular charge transfer in a bay-substituted perylene diimide derivative embedded in a planar distributed Bragg reflector microcavity. Angle-resolved reflectance spectra confirm the formation of upper and lower polaritons with clear Rabi splitting, indicating strong coupling between the cavity mode and molecular excitons. Using broadband transient absorption spectroscopy, we compare the ultrafast dynamics of cavity and non-cavity films. While excited-state absorption and stimulated emission pathways remain largely unchanged, kinetic modeling reveals a moderate increase in the charge transfer rate and yield under strong coupling. This enhancement is attributed to a reduction in the effective driving force via the formation of the lower polariton, placing the system deeper into the Marcus inverted regime. Our results demonstrate a promising non-chemical method leveraging cavity quantum electrodynamics to modulate charge separation processes in molecular semiconductors.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS2001

Satellite Remote Sensing Studies of Biological and Biogeochemical Processing in the Ocean

The remote sensing of phycoerythrin-containing phytoplankton by ocean color was evaluated. Phycoerythrin (PE) can be remotely sensed by three methods: surface reflectance (Sathyendranath et al. 1994), by laser-activated fluorescence (Hoge and Swift 1986) and by passive fluorescence (Letelier et al. 1996). In collaboration with Dr. Frank Hoge and Robert Swift during Dr. Maria Vernet's tenure as Senior Visiting Scientist at Wallops Island, the active and passive methods were studied, in particular the detection of PE fluorescence and spectral reflectance from airborne LIDAR (AOL). Airborne instrumentation allows for more detailed and flexible sampling of the ocean surface than satellites thus providing the ideal platform to test model and develop algorithms than can later be applied to ocean color by satellites such as TERRA and AQUA. Dr. Vernet's contribution to the Wallops team included determination of PE in the water column, in conjunction with AOL flights in the North Atlantic Bight. In addition, a new flow-through fluorometer for PE determination by fluorescence was tested and calibrated. Results: several goals were achieved during this period. Cruises to the California Current, North Atlantic Bight, Gulf of Maine and Chesapeake Bay provided sampling under different oceanographic and optical conditions. The ships carried the flow-through fluorometer and samples for the determination of PE were obtained from the flow-through flow. The AOL was flown over the ship's track, usually several flights during the cruise, weather permitting.

Vernet, Maria↗
DOE OSTI2026

New approaches to Bayesian uncertainty quantification for Nuclear Science (Final Technical Report)

Inverse problems play a central role in experimentation and theory/data comparisons for many areas of modern Nuclear Physics (NP) and High-Energy Physics (HEP). Bayes’s Theorem is a powerful tool for solving Inverse Problems, providing conceptually transparent and unbiased constraints on theoretical parameters and their uncertainties (“Bayesian Inference”) and enabling the quantification of agreement or tension between models and data. However, analyses based on Bayesian Inference are often challenging for NP and HEP applications, either because of the large number of parameters in the problem, the high computational cost, or both. We propose a multi-institutional collaboration to develop and deploy novel Bayesian analysis tools that advance the scientific scope of a broad range of current and future NP experiments. This project brings together NP domain scientists working on several high-profile NP projects for which new, high-performance Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification (“Bayesian UQ”) methods are essential to carry out the science, and data scientists who are developing state-of-the-art methods applicable to these problems. The NP projects in this proposal comprise measurements of the mass and fundamental nature of the neutrino; study of the Quark-Gluon Plasma that filled the early universe; and mapping of natural and anthropogenic radiation environments. While these NP projects have very different scientific goals, with datasets and analysis approaches that differ significantly, they share common requirements for improving computationally intensive Bayesian analyses using advanced Machine Learning algorithms and will benefit strongly from a coherent effort to develop general solutions. This proposal brings together these projects and forefront ML-based data science algorithms to develop such general solutions. The methods developed in this project will also be more widely applicable, thereby advancing science in the larger Nuclear Physics portfolio.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗