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At least 289 records · Page 16

Cross Correlating Cosmological Probes for Stage-IV Surveys

The next few years will be populated with Stage-IV cosmological surveys. This paper forecasts the cosmological information we expect to constrain using probes from the Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) and CMB Stage-4 surveys. We explore the effectiveness of different large-scale-structure probes, including the power spectra of galaxy weak lensing, galaxy positions, Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) lensing, and their cross-correlation. We use correlated lognormal simulations with the expected redshift distribution, number density of galaxies, and noise levels of the LSST survey, as well as CMB-S4 lensing simulations with anticipated noise levels, to obtain the expected error bars of each of the probes. We investigate the constraining power of the cosmological parameters for the individual probes and their combinations in an idealized scenario, where we do not account for astrophysical and observational parameters such as galaxy bias variations and photometric redshift uncertainties.

Gibbins, Grace↗

Shuttle payload dynamic environments - Update

This paper represents a brief summary of a report titled, 'Shuttle Payload Bay Dynamic Environments Summary and Conclusion Report' prepared by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory for the NASA Office of Aeronautics and Space Technology (OAST). The report provides a summary of the dynamic environmental data taken during the first five Space Shuttle flights. The present paper is concerned with a brief synopsis of the report's acoustic and high frequency data evaluation, taking into account also an example acoustic prediction method. Attention is given to an acoustic data summary, a vibration data summary, environmental uncertainties, data reduction errors, spatial bias errors, payload effects, spatial variation, flight to flight variation, payload prediction, and an example prediction.

Oconnell, M.↗

Evidence for accurate temperatures from the inflatable falling sphere

The experiments performed with the inflatable falling sphere technique, for middle atmosphere studies, are reported. It is shown to be a potentially high accurate and independent source of temperature measurement and an intrinsic method for establishing accuracy of other atmospheric measurement techniques. Theoretical derivation, simulations, and actual measurements show that the sphere's temperature data are accurate. It is demonstrated that retrieved temperatures from falling spheres are not significantly affected by linear bias in density caused by uncertainties in sphere mass, volume, or cross sectional area. Case studies illustrate the sphere's capability to produce accurate temperatures. Comparisons with Datasonde temperature measurements obtained close in time and space are in agreement below 60 km.

Schmidlin, F. J.↗

A Framework for Evaluating Climate Model Performance Metrics

The CMIP5 archive contains future climate projections from over 50 models provided by dozens of modeling centers from around the world. Individual model projections, however, are subject to biases created by structural model uncertainties. As a result, ensemble averaging of multiple models is often used to add value to model projections: consensus projections have been shown to consistently outperform individual models. Previous reports for the IPCC establish climate change projections based on an equal-weighted average of all model projections. However, certain models reproduce climate processes better than other models. Should models be weighted based on performance? Unequal ensemble averages have previously been constructed using a variety of mean state metrics. What metrics are most relevant for constraining future climate projections? This project develops a framework for systematically testing metrics in models to identify optimal metrics for unequal weighting multi-model ensembles. A unique aspect of this project is the construction and testing of climate process-based model evaluation metrics. A climate process-based metric is defined as a metric based on the relationship between two physically related climate variables?e.g., outgoing longwave radiation and surface temperature. Metrics are constructed using high-quality Earth radiation budget data from NASA's Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) instrument and surface temperature data sets. It is found that regional values of tested quantities can vary significantly when comparing weighted and unweighted model ensembles. For example, one tested metric weights the ensemble by how well models reproduce the time-series probability distribution of the cloud forcing component of reflected shortwave radiation. The weighted ensemble for this metric indicates lower simulated precipitation (up to .7 mm/day) in tropical regions than the unweighted ensemble: since CMIP5 models have been shown to overproduce precipitation, this result could indicate that the metric is effective in identifying models which simulate more realistic precipitation. Ultimately, the goal of the framework is to identify performance metrics for advising better methods for ensemble averaging models and create better climate predictions.

Noel C Baker↗

Combinations of Earth Orientation Measurements: SPACE94, COMB94, and POLE94

A Kalman filter has been used to combine independent measurements of the Earth's orientation taken by the space-geodetic observing techniques of lunar laser ranging, satellite laser ranging, very long baseline interferometry, and the Global Positioning System. Prior to their combination, the data series were adjusted to have the same bias and rate, the stated uncertainties of the measurements were adjusted, and data points considered to be outliers were deleted. The resulting combination, SPACE94, consists of smoothed, interpolated polar motion and UT1-UTC values spanning October 6.0, 1976, to January 27.0, 1995, at 1-day intervals.

Kalman↗

A Facility Effect Characterization Test of the BHT-6000 Hall Thruster

During the development of the BHT-6000 Hall thruster for flight on NASA’s Power and Propulsion Element, a facility effect test campaign was performed on an engineering unit of the thruster. Testing occurred in Vacuum Facility 5 at NASA Glenn Research Center. The goal of the test campaign was to characterize the behavior of the BHT-6000 Hall thruster as functions of facility effects such that the thruster’s in-flight behavior can be reasonably bounded. In particular, the behavior of the thruster with regard to the background pressure and electrical environment was tested. The background pressure was controlled by injecting supplemental propellant flow into the environment, while the electrical environment was controlled by biasing the facility beam dump. Thrust was found to remain constant over the tested range of pressures while specific impulse was found to increase slightly (1 to 1.5% over a range of up to 20 μTorr, depending on operating point). Plasma plume properties, particularly of ions exiting the side of the thruster, were found to be highly sensitive to pressure and may require pressures of less than a few μTorr for accurate measurements. The thruster was found to operate identically with changing beam dump bias voltage to within measurement uncertainties.

Electric propulsion↗

A Facility Effect Characterization Test of the BHT6000 Hall Thruster

During the development of the BHT-6000 Hall thruster for flight on NASA’s Power and Propulsion Element, a facility effect test campaign was performed on an engineering unit of the thruster. Testing occurred in Vacuum Facility 5 at NASA Glenn Research Center. The goal of the test campaign was to characterize the behavior of the BHT-6000 Hall thruster as functions of facility effects such that the thruster’s in-flight behavior can be reasonably bounded. In particular, the behavior of the thruster with regard to the background pressure and electrical environment was tested. The background pressure was controlled by injecting supplemental propellant flow into the environment, while the electrical environment was controlled by biasing the facility beam dump. Thrust was found to remain constant over the tested range of pressures while specific impulse was found to increase slightly (1 to 1.5% over a range of up to 20 μTorr, depending on operating point). Plasma plume properties, particularly of ions exiting the side of the thruster, were found to be highly sensitive to pressure and may require pressures of less than a few μTorr for accurate measurements. The thruster was found to operate identically with changing beam dump bias voltage to within measurement uncertainties.

Electric propulsion↗

Assessment of Dust Size Retrievals Based on AERONET: A Case Study of Radiative Closure From Visible-Near-Infrared to Thermal Infrared

Super-coarse dust particles (diameters >10 μm) are evidenced to be more abundant in the atmosphere than model estimates and contribute significantly to the dust climate impacts. Since super-coarse dust accounts for less dust extinction in the visible-to-near-infrared (VIS-NIR) than in the thermal infrared (TIR) spectral regime, they are suspected to be underestimated by remote sensing instruments operates only in VIS-NIR, including Aerosol Robotic Networks (AERONET), a widely used data set for dust model validation. In this study, we perform a radiative closure assessment using the AERONET-retrieved size distribution in comparison with the collocated Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) TIR observations with comprehensive uncertainty analysis. The consistently warm bias in the comparisons suggests a potential underestimation of super-coarse dust in the AERONET retrievals due to the limited VIS-NIR sensitivity. An extra super-coarse mode included in the AERONET-retrieved size distribution helps improve the TIR closure without deteriorating the retrieval accuracy in the VIS-NIR.

thermal infrared (TIR)↗

Experimental uncertainty survey and assessment

An uncertainty analysis and assessment of the specific impulse determination during Space Shuttle Main Engine testing is reported. It is concluded that in planning and designing tests and in interpreting the results of tests, the bias and precision components of experimental uncertainty should be considered separately. Recommendations for future research efforts are presented.

Coleman, Hugh W.↗

The Dark Energy Survey Supernova Program: Cosmological Biases from Host Galaxy Mismatch of Type Ia Supernovae

Abstract Redshift measurements, primarily obtained from host galaxies, are essential for inferring cosmological parameters from type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia). Matching SNe to host galaxies using images is nontrivial, resulting in a subset of SNe with mismatched hosts and thus incorrect redshifts. We evaluate the host galaxy mismatch rate and resulting biases on cosmological parameters from simulations modeled after the Dark Energy Survey 5 Yr (DES-SN5YR) photometric sample. For both DES-SN5YR data and simulations, we employ the directional light radius method for host galaxy matching. In our SN Ia simulations, we find that 1.7% of SNe are matched to the wrong host galaxy, with redshift differences between the true and matched hosts of up to 0.6. Using our analysis pipeline, we determine the shift in the dark energy equation of state parameter (Δ w ) due to including SNe with incorrect host galaxy matches. For SN Ia–only simulations, we find Δ w = 0.0013 ± 0.0026 with constraints from the cosmic microwave background. Including core-collapse SNe and peculiar SNe Ia in the simulation, we find that Δ w ranges from 0.0009 to 0.0032, depending on the photometric classifier used. This bias is an order of magnitude smaller than the expected total uncertainty on w from the DES-SN5YR sample of ∼0.03. We conclude that the bias on w from host galaxy mismatch is much smaller than the uncertainties expected from the DES-SN5YR sample, but we encourage further studies to reduce this bias through better host-matching algorithms or selection cuts.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Bayesian Neural Network Variational Autoencoder Inverse Mapper (BNN-VAIM) and its application in Compton Form Factors extraction

Abstract We extend the Variational Autoencoder Inverse Mapper (VAIM) framework for the inverse problem of extracting Compton Form Factors (CFFs) from deeply virtual exclusive reactions, such as the unpolarized Deeply virtual exclusive scattering (DVCS) cross section. VAIM is an end-to-end deep learning framework to address the solution ambiguity issue in ill-posed inverse problems, which comprises of a forward mapper and a backward mapper to simulate the forward and inverse processes, respectively. In particular, we incorporate Bayesian Neural Network (BNN) into the VAIM architecture (BNN-VAIM) for uncertainty quantification. By sampling the weights and biases distributions of the BNN in the backward mapper of the VAIM, BNN-VAIM is able to estimate prediction uncertainty associated with each individual solution obtained for an ill-posed inverse problem. We first demonstrate the uncertainty quantification capability of BNN-VAIM in a toy inverse problem. Then, we apply BNN-VAIM to the inverse problem of extracting 8 CFFs from the unpolarized DVCS cross section.

Instruments & Instrumentation↗

Estimating Uncertainty in Long Term Total Ozone Records from Multiple Sources

Total ozone measurements derived from the TOMS and SBUV backscattered solar UV instrument series cover the period from late 1978 to the present. As the SBUV series of instruments comes to an end, we look to the 10 years of data from the AURA Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) and two years of data from the Ozone Mapping Profiler Suite (OMPS) on board the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership satellite to continue the record. When combining these records to construct a single long-term data set for analysis we must estimate the uncertainty in the record resulting from potential biases and drifts in the individual measurement records. In this study we present a Monte Carlo analysis used to estimate uncertainties in the Merged Ozone Dataset (MOD), constructed from the Version 8.6 SBUV2 series of instruments. We extend this analysis to incorporate OMI and OMPS total ozone data into the record and investigate the impact of multiple overlapping measurements on the estimated error. We also present an updated column ozone trend analysis and compare the size of statistical error (error from variability not explained by our linear regression model) to that from instrument uncertainty.

TOMS and SBUV↗

Data and scripts from: “Denoising autoencoder for reconstructing sensor observation data and predicting evapotranspiration: noisy and missing values repair and uncertainty quantification”

This data package includes data and scripts from the manuscript “Denoising autoencoder for reconstructing sensor observation data and predicting evapotranspiration: noisy and missing values repair and uncertainty quantification”.The study addressed common challenges faced in environmental sensing and modeling, including uncertain input data, missing sensor observations, and high-dimensional datasets with interrelated but redundant variables. Point-scaled meteorological and soil sensor observations were perturbed with noises and missing values, and denoising autoencoder (DAE) neural networks were developed to reconstruct the perturbed data and further predict evapotranspiration. This study concluded that (1) the reconstruction quality of each variable depends on its cross-correlation and alignment to the underlying data structure, (2) uncertainties from the models were overall stronger than those from the data corruption, and (3) there was a tradeoff between reducing bias and reducing variance when evaluating the uncertainty of the machine learning models.This package includes:(1) Four ipython scripts (.ipynb): “DAE_train.ipynb” trains and evaluates DAE neural networks, “DAE_predict.ipynb” makes predictions from the trained DAE models, “ET_train.ipynb” trains and evaluates ET prediction neural networks, and “ET_predict.ipynb” makes predictions from trained ET models.(2) One python file (.py): “methods.py” includes all user-defined functions and python codes used in the ipython scripts.(3) A “sub_models” folder that includes five trained DAE neural networks (in pytorch format, .pt), which could be used to ingest input data before being fed to the downstream ET models in ‘ET_train.ipynb” or ‘ET_predict.ipynb’.(4) Two data files (.csv). Daily meteorological, vegetation, and soil data is in “df_data.csv”, where “df_meta.csv” contains the location and time information of “df_data.csv”. Each row (index) in “df_meta.csv” corresponds to each row in “df_data.csv”. These data files are formatted to follow the data structure requirements and be directly used in the ipython scripts, and they have been shuffled chronologically to train machine learning models. The meteorological and soil data was collected using point sensors between 2019-2023 at(4.a) Three shrub-dominated field sites in East River, Colorado (named “ph1”, “ph2” and “sg5” in “df_meta.csv”, where “ph1” and “ph2” were located at PumpHouse Hillslopes, and “sg5” was at Snodgrass Mountain meadow) and(4.b) One outdoor, mesoscale, and herbaceous-dominated experiment in Berkeley, California (named “tb” in “df_meta.csv”, short for Smartsoils Testbed at Lawrence Berkeley National Lab).- See "df_data_dd.csv" and "df_meta_dd.csv" for variable descriptions and the Methods section for additional data processing steps. See "flmd.csv" and "README.txt" for brief file descriptions.- All ipython scripts and python files are written in and require PYTHON language software.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A new design approach to achieve a minimum impulse limit cycle in the presence of significant measurement uncertainties

A new design was developed for the Space Shuttle Transition Phase Digital Autopilot to reduce the impact of large measurement uncertainties in the rate signal during attitude control. The signal source, which was dictated by early computer constraints, is characterized by large quantization, noise, bias, and transport lag which produce a measurement uncertainty larger than the minimum impulse rate change. To ensure convergence to a minimum impulse limit cycle, the design employed bias and transport lag compensation and a switching logic with hysteresis, rate deadzone, and 'walking' switching line. The design background, the rate measurement uncertainties, and the design solution are documented.

Martin, M. W.↗

Comparative Analysis of Upper Ocean Heat Content Variability from Ensemble Operational Ocean Analyses

Upper ocean heat content (HC) is one of the key indicators of climate variability on many time-scales extending from seasonal to interannual to long-term climate trends. For example, HC in the tropical Pacific provides information on thermocline anomalies that is critical for the longlead forecast skill of ENSO. Since HC variability is also associated with SST variability, a better understanding and monitoring of HC variability can help us understand and forecast SST variability associated with ENSO and other modes such as Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Tropical Atlantic Variability (TAV) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). An accurate ocean initialization of HC anomalies in coupled climate models could also contribute to skill in decadal climate prediction. Errors, and/or uncertainties, in the estimation of HC variability can be affected by many factors including uncertainties in surface forcings, ocean model biases, and deficiencies in data assimilation schemes. Changes in observing systems can also leave an imprint on the estimated variability. The availability of multiple operational ocean analyses (ORA) that are routinely produced by operational and research centers around the world provides an opportunity to assess uncertainties in HC analyses, to help identify gaps in observing systems as they impact the quality of ORAs and therefore climate model forecasts. A comparison of ORAs also gives an opportunity to identify deficiencies in data assimilation schemes, and can be used as a basis for development of real-time multi-model ensemble HC monitoring products. The OceanObs09 Conference called for an intercomparison of ORAs and use of ORAs for global ocean monitoring. As a follow up, we intercompared HC variations from ten ORAs -- two objective analyses based on in-situ data only and eight model analyses based on ocean data assimilation systems. The mean, annual cycle, interannual variability and longterm trend of HC have been analyzed

Xue, Yan↗

Helium Mass Spectrometer Leak Detection: A Method to Quantify Total Measurement Uncertainty

In applications where leak rates of components or systems are evaluated against a leak rate requirement, the uncertainty of the measured leak rate must be included in the reported result. However, in the helium mass spectrometer leak detection method, the sensitivity, or resolution, of the instrument is often the only component of the total measurement uncertainty noted when reporting results. To address this shortfall, a measurement uncertainty analysis method was developed that includes the leak detector unit's resolution, repeatability, hysteresis, and drift, along with the uncertainty associated with the calibration standard. In a step-wise process, the method identifies the bias and precision components of the calibration standard, the measurement correction factor (K-factor), and the leak detector unit. Together these individual contributions to error are combined and the total measurement uncertainty is determined using the root-sum-square method. It was found that the precision component contributes more to the total uncertainty than the bias component, but the bias component is not insignificant. For helium mass spectrometer leak rate tests where unit sensitivity alone is not enough, a thorough evaluation of the measurement uncertainty such as the one presented herein should be performed and reported along with the leak rate value.

error analysis↗

Aerothermal Analysis of the Rocket Lab Venus Probe Heatshield

This document provides an overview of the aerothermodynamic analyses performed by the Aerothermodynamics Branch at NASA Langley Research Center for the Rocket Lab Venus Probe (RLVP). In addition to defining the baseline heating environment to the heatshield, this document pursues the experimental validation of key physical models at RLVP-relevant conditions. This experimental validation analysis, which captures the model form uncertainty, is used as one of two primary components of the margin assessment, where the other component is the parametric uncertainty. These model form (experimental) and parametric uncertainty components are used to construct a spatial and time varying margin for the heating to the RLVP heatshield. The margin is evaluated as the sum of the parametric and model form uncertainty components. The model form uncertainty is defined as the difference between the RLVP-relevant measurements and their simulations, using the upper limit uncertainty bounds for both the measurements and simulations in the comparisons. The differences in the dominant physics in the stagnation region and flank lead to the separate RLVP-relevant measurements for assessing the model form uncertainty in these two regions. These regions are addressed as follows: Stagnation Region Heating Environment: For the high-temperature stagnation-region, both the radiative heating and impact of blowing on convective heating are significant, while the impacts of turbulence and roughness are negligible. Coupled radiation and ablation LAURA/HARA solutions with ray-tracing provide the radiative heating over the entire vehicle, including the contributions from the Venus atmosphere and ablation species. Non-ablating LAURA simulations provide the convective heating. During the material-response computation typically used for TPS sizing, this non-ablating convective heating is corrected for the impact of ablation using the blowing correction. Coupled ablation LAURA simulations that capture finite-rate sur-face processes show that this blowing correction may be non-conservative over most of the heatshield. This non-conservatism is due to hydrogen recombination in the finite-rate surface model, which tends to increase the coupled ablation convective heating to near the non-ablating values, therefore making any reduction in the non-ablating value through the blowing correction non-conservative. This non-conservatism due to H catalysis is captured in the parametric component of the margin. The best available ground-test measurements that capture the impact of blowing on stagnation region convective heating, at RLVP-relevant conditions, indicate that the current blowing reduction model is non-conservative by up to 20% at RLVP-relevant blowing rates (the coupled blowing simulations were also non-conservative). Because of the relatively low velocity of the ground tests and the non-Venus atmospheric chemistry, these measurements do not capture the chemistry and therefore do not inform the uncertainty due to H catalysis. However, they do capture the fluid mechanics of blowing. The non-conservatism of the blowing correction implied by these measurements is covered by the model form component of the margin, which leads to total margin values over 50%. For the radiative heating, the shock-tube informed bias approach suggests a model form uncertainty of roughly 20%, while the parametric uncertainty analysis suggests values over 100%. The combined stagnation-point radiation margin of over 100% leads to peak margined radiative heating values of over300 W/cm2, which remains small relative to the peak margined convective heating of nearly 2000 W/cm2. Based on this analysis, at the stagnation point, the peak margined heat rate is 2203 W/cm2 and the margined total heat load is 31.5 kJ/cm2 for the current nominal trajectory. Flank Heating Environment: The forebody flank (and near-shoulder) heating environment is dominated by the impact of turbulence, roughness augmentation, and ablation on the convective heating. An extensive collection of ground test measurements with RLVP-relevant turbulence and roughness is studied to show that the maximum difference between the simulated and measured convective heating is 5%. However, with the exception of the Holden measurements from the 1980s, these measurements do not include roughness elements extending into the supersonic region of the boundary layer, which is likely to occur for RLVP (due to the 45 degree sphere-cone geometry). The interaction between the supersonic flow and roughness could cause convective heating augmentation fundamentally different than for locally subsonic flow. Although these Holden measurements are consistent with the other measurements considered, another path was pursued to assure that the rough-ness height extending into supersonic flow does not fundamentally change the roughness augmentation. This additional path was a computational effort to resolve the roughness elements in the CFD grid, so that the interaction be-tween the roughness elements and locally supersonic flow may be simulated in detail. This roughness-resolved CFD simulation is feasible because of the RLVP forebody TPS’s patterned roughness, which may be approximated analytically, and because of the axisymmetric nominal flow field, which allows a narrow surface region to be simulated and therefore make the computational expense feasible. These grid-resolved roughness simulations, which are performed at actual RLVP flight conditions, result in heating augmentation values that are below the design approach for roughness augmentation. This provides evidence that the design approach for RLVP roughness augmentation is sufficient. Based on this analysis, at this flank or near-shoulder location, the peak margined total heat rate is 2088 W/cm2and the margined total heat load is 26.0 kJ/cm2for the current nominal trajectory. Heat flux, shear, pressure and heat transfer coefficient at the RLVP stagnation point and near shoulder location are evaluated for the entire trajectory, and curved fit to a functional form of F=AρB∞UC∞. These simplified relationships for the nominal and margined aerothermal environments are referred to as aerothermal indicators, and presented at the end of this document.

Christopher O Johnston↗

Far-Reaching Impacts of African Dust- A Calipso Perspective

African dust can transport across the tropical Atlantic and reach the Amazon basin, exerting far-reaching impacts on climate in downwind regions. The transported dust influences the surface-atmosphere interactions and cloud and precipitation processes through perturbing the surface radiative budget and atmospheric radiative heating and acting as cloud condensation nuclei and ice nuclei. Dust also influences biogeochemical cycle and climate through providing nutrients vital to the productivity of ocean biomass and Amazon forests. Assessing these climate impacts relies on an accurate quantification of dust transport and deposition. Currently model simulations show extremely large diversity, which calls for a need of observational constraints. Kaufman et al. (2005) estimated from MODIS aerosol measurements that about 144 Tg of dust is deposited into the tropical Atlantic and 50 Tg of dust into the Amazon in 2001. This estimated dust import to Amazon is a factor of 3-4 higher than other observations and models. However, several studies have argued that the oversimplified characterization of dust vertical profile in the study would have introduced large uncertainty and very likely a high bias. In this study we quantify the trans-Atlantic dust transport and deposition by using 7 years (2007-2013) observations from CALIPSO lidar. CALIPSO acquires high-resolution aerosol extinction and depolarization profiles in both cloud-free and above-cloud conditions. The unique CALIPSO capability of profiling aerosols above clouds offers an unprecedented opportunity of examining uncertainties associated with the use of MODIS clear-sky data. Dust is separated from other types of aerosols using the depolarization measurements. We estimated that on the basis of 7-year average, 118142 Tg of dust is deposited into the tropical Atlantic and 3860 Tg of dust into the Amazon basin. Substantial interannual variations are observed during the period, with the maximum to minimum ratio of about 1.6 and 2.5 for the deposition to the tropical Atlantic and Amazon, respectively. The MODIS-based estimates appear to fall within the range of CALIPSO-based estimates; and the difference between MODIS and CALIPSO estimates can be largely attributed to the interannual variability, which is corroborated by long-term surface dust concentration observations in the tropical Atlantic. Considering that CALIPSO generally tends to underestimate the aerosol loading, our estimate is likely to represent a low bound for the dust transport and deposition estimate. The finding suggests that models have substantial biases and considerable effort is needed to improve model simulations of dust cycle.

dust↗