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At least 289 records · Page 16

Integrating State Data Assimilation and Innovative Model Parameterization Reduces Simulated Carbon Uptake in the Arctic and Boreal Region

Model representation of carbon uptake and storage is essential for accurate projection of the response of the arctic-boreal zone to a rapidly changing climate. Land model estimates of LAI and aboveground biomass that can have a marked influence on model projections of carbon uptake and storage vary substantially in the arctic and boreal zone, making it challenging to correctly evaluate model estimates of Gross Primary Productivity (GPP). To understand and correct bias of LAI and aboveground biomass in the Community Land Model (CLM), we assimilated the 8-day Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) LAI observation and a machine learning product of annual aboveground biomass into CLM using an Ensemble Adjustment Kalman Filter (EAKF) in an experimental region including Alaska and Western Canada. Assimilating LAI and aboveground biomass reduced these model estimates by 58% and 72%, respectively. The change of aboveground biomass was consistent with independent estimates of canopy top height at both regional and site levels. The International Land Model Benchmarking system assessment showed that data assimilation significantly improved CLM's performance in simulating the carbon and hydrological cycles, as well as in representing the functional relationships between LAI and other variables. Here, to further reduce the remaining bias in GPP after LAI bias correction, we re-parameterized CLM to account for low temperature suppression of photosynthesis. The LAI bias corrected model that included the new parameterization showed the best agreement with model benchmarks. Combining data assimilation with model parameterization provides a useful framework to assess photosynthetic processes in LSMs.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Production of neo acids from biomass-derived monomers

Neo acids are highly branched carboxylic acids currently produced from fossil fuels. In this work, we produce renewable neo acids from lignocellulosic biomass-derived furan and keto acids via C–C coupling through hydroxyalkylation/alkylation (HAA), followed by ring-opening of furans through hydrodeoxygenation (HDO). Here, we show effective C–C coupling over acid catalysts. Catalyst screening and multi-parameter optimization using machine learning optimize the yield and elucidate the correlation between variables and outcomes. We demonstrate selective furan ring-opening without affecting the carboxylic acid to make neo acids using a co-catalyst involving Pd supported on carbon and metal triflate.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Data from: "Growth strategies and threshold responses to water deficit modulate effects of warming on tree seedlings from forest to alpine"

This data package contains data that were used to support conclusions drawn in “Growth strategies and threshold responses to water deficit modulate effects of warming on tree seedlings from forest to alpine”, by Lazarus, Castanha et al. 2017. Data were collected at field sites within the Alpine Treeline Warming Experiment (ATWE) on Niwot Ridge, Colorado, USA, and at the U.S. Geological Survey laboratory located in Boise, Idaho. This archive contains comma-separated-values (.csv) files, as well as the same files in Microsoft Excel (.xlsx) format, which can be opened by either Microsoft Excel, R, or any simple text editor program. There are two types of geospatial data files: .kml and ESRI shapefiles (.shp). The kml files contain placemarks, which can be opened by Google Earth, or Google Maps. The ESRI shapefiles can be opened by any geographic information system application that can read shapefiles, including ESRI's entire ArcGIS suite, and QGIS. We asked whether and how tree species differences in response to water deficit relates to their establishment along the gradient from forest to alpine. To do this, we compared growth and moisture stress responses in first-year seedlings of three species planted in common gardens subject to a factorial of heating and watering treatments below, at, and above tree line. This combination of an elevation gradient alongside warming and watering treatments enabled us to observe species differences in seedling responses to a broad set of climatic conditions.Entire seedlings were harvested at c. 3- and again at 9 weeks of age following germination/emergence in the experimental plots, and we then measured dry mass (DM) of above and belowground parts, root length, root mass fraction (RMF), relative growth rates (RGRs) from seed to 3 weeks and from 3 to 9 weeks, turgor-loss point (TLP), and photosynthetic WUE (as δ13C). Also included in this dataset (but not described in the manuscript) are measures of specific leaf area (SLA) and other variables generated by pressure-volume curves (saturated water content, osmotic potential at full turgor, elastic modulus).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Intraspecific variability in plant and soil chemical properties in a common garden plantation of the energy crop Populus

Optimizing crops for synergistic soil carbon (C) sequestration can enhance CO 2 removal in food and bioenergy production systems. Yet, in bioenergy systems, we lack an understanding of how intraspecies variation in plant traits correlates with variation in soil biogeochemistry. This knowledge gap is exacerbated by both the heterogeneity and difficulty of measuring belowground traits. Here, we provide initial observations of C and nutrients in soil and root and stem tissues from a common garden field site of diverse, natural variant, Populus trichocarpa genotypes—established for aboveground biomass-to-biofuels research. Our goal was to explore the value of such field sites for evaluating genotype-specific effects on soil C, which ultimately informs the potential for optimizing bioenergy systems for both aboveground productivity and belowground C storage. To do this, we investigated variation in chemical traits at the scale of individual trees and genotypes and we explored correlations among stem, root, and soil samples. We observed substantial variation in soil chemical properties at the scale of individual trees and specific genotypes. While correlations among elements were observed both within and among sample types (soil, stem, root), above-belowground correlations were generally poor. We did not observe genotype-specific patterns in soil C in the top 10 cm, but we did observe genotype associations with soil acid-base chemistry (soil pH and base cations) and bulk density. Finally, a specific phenotype of interest (high vs low lignin) was unrelated to soil biogeochemistry. Our pilot study supports the usefulness of decade-old, genetically-variable, Populus bioenergy field test plots for understanding plant genotype effects on soil properties. Finally, this study contributes to the advancement of sampling methods and baseline data for Populus systems in the Pacific Northwest, USA. Further species- and region-specific efforts will enhance C predictability across scales in bioenergy systems and, ultimately, accelerate the identification of genotypes that optimize yield and carbon storage.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Insights into Mechanisms of Screw Feeder Plugging by Heated Pine Forestry Residues Using in-situ and Correlative Microscopy

Increasing concerns about global carbon emissions due to fossil fuel use has created interest in renewable fuel alternatives, such as lignocellulosic biomass. With an estimated global biomass production probability ten-fold higher than projected need, functionalizing and scaling biomass conversion processes, like pyrolysis, is a promising component of a diverse sustainable energy program (Kan, Strezov, & Evans, 2016). Pyrolysis reactors employed in biomass conversion often encounter the known problem of screw feeder plugging, halting work and reducing efficiency of biorefineries. Although the screw feeder is not heated directly, conductive heat transfer from the fluidized bed pyrolysis reactor creates a temperature gradient, where particles experience temperatures between 22°C and 500°C from the time they enter the feeder to being emptied into the reactor (Digman, Joo, & Kim, 2009; Nieminen & Folke, 1982). The impact of unintentional heating on this highly variable feedstock may result in particle morphology modification, surface texture transformation, and the evolution of viscous compounds and may contribute to screw feeder plugging (Haas, Nimlos, & Donohoe, 2009; Ingram et al., 2008). We hypothesized that particles of various anatomical fractions (including needles, branches, bark, cambium, and whitewood) will experience dramatic changes during this heating regime, which will be characterized by decreased particle size, increased surface roughness, degradation of key structural macromolecules, and generation of viscous compounds that would result in increased particle friction and cohesion, contributing to screw feeder plugging.

biofuels↗

Co-Hydrotreatment of Yellow Greases and the Water-Insoluble Fraction of Pyrolysis Oil. Part I: Experimental Design to Increase Kerosene Yield and Reduce Coke Formation

Here, this paper reports the co-hydrotreatment of Biomass Technology Group commercial pyrolysis oil water-insoluble (WIS) phase (also known as pyrolytic lignin) and yellow greases (waste cooking oil), aiming to produce sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs). We use a sulfided NiMo/Al 2 O 3 blend with 16 wt % WIS and a central composite experimental design to identify processing conditions increasing kerosene yield and reducing coke formation. The input variables were: (1) reaction temperature (320, 350, and 380 °C), (2) initial hydrogen pressure (5, 6, and 7 MPa), and (3) amount of catalyst (0.7, 1.0, and 1.3 g). The hydrotreated oily phases were distilled to obtain gasoline (<150 °C), kerosene (150–250 °C), diesel (250–350 °C), and residual oil (>350 °C). The reaction temperature is the main factor affecting the yield of gaseous, solid, and liquid products. Meanwhile, a higher initial hydrogen pressure and catalyst loading increased the yield of kerosene and other distillates and decreased the coke formation. A high temperature correlated with a lower content of oxygenates in kerosene cuts. Based on our experimental results, we propose to conduct hydrotreatment studies at 380 °C, initial H 2 pressure of 7 MPa, and 1.3 g of catalyst. Under the identified conditions, it was possible to improve the kerosene yield to more than 20 wt % and reduce the yield of coke to close to 2.0 wt %. The chemical composition and fuel properties of the gasoline, kerosene, and diesel cuts were thoroughly analyzed. The content of aromatics and phenols in the kerosene fraction produced at the conditions identified in this project exceeded the recommended values for SAFs. New strategies (such as blending and more intense hydrotreatment to remove oxygenated compounds) need to be implemented to reduce the content of these molecules in our final product.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Kinetics Modeling for Design of Continuous Enzymatic Hydrolysis

Enzymatic hydrolysis of cellulose to monomeric sugars continues to be a limiting step in cost-effectively producing sugar and fermentation-based biofuels from biomass. In particular, the high cost of enzymes coupled with the long time-scale of reaction pose challenges to economic viability. Performing enzymatic hydrolysis in a continuous mode with enzyme recycle may provide a path towards substantially reduced costs for sugar production, but design and analysis are complicated by a lack of suitable kinetics models. Computationally attainable models, such as fractal-based models, require knowledge of the reaction-history of the biomass, and are thus only suitable for describing the batch reactions from which they are derived. Fundamental models, while potentially more generalizable, are often too computationally intensive to use in process or reactor modeling. In this work, a phenomenological rate model is proposed based on a two-phase substrate representation. Good agreement is seen between batch and continuous enzymatic hydrolysis (CEH) experiment data, which validates the model and enables us to solve for reactor design parameters, such as CEH reactor size and stream flow rates, based on process variables like yield. This model is integrated with techno-economic analysis software to explore economic sensitivities. Important design optimizations and tradeoffs are identified and quantified, including the relative cost imposed by rate slowdown from sugar inhibition versus the cost to remove and concentrate sugars at a lower concentration. It also identifies, high-leverage avenues for further exploration, such as increasing the maximum feasible solids concentration, and sustaining high membrane flux and reliability.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

A novel approach to build algal consortia for sustainable biomass production

In the last decade, microalgae have reemerged as a feedstock for biofuels and a diverse suite of bioproducts. Yet, considerable challenges must be overcome before algal biofuels and bioproducts become technoeconomically viable. At present, single algal strain selected for particular phenotypic traits, such as maximum specific growth rate or lipid content, are commonly scaled for cultivation in open, outdoor raceway ponds due to the low capital costs of these systems. Although this monoculture approach may maximize the production of end products, monocultures are particularly susceptible to crashes associated with environmental and biological variability. An approach that has been proposed to generate more productive and stable microalgal crops is the use of eco-engineered communities, or consortia. Yet, attempts to construct productive consortia have not been consistently successful. We argue that failures stem from the lack of an eco-engineering approach to design species combinations. Here, we used an in silico method to build consortia before testing their performance against monocultures. Focusing on consortia of Nannochloropsis and Microchloropsis, we measured growth of strains along gradients of light, temperature, and salinity and used a functional dispersion approach to generate over 8000 functionally-diverse consortia combinations. We tested the 50 most functionally diverse consortia in a laboratory experiment and found that consortia overwhelmingly outperformed monocultures. Indeed, overyielding (OY) and a positive net biodiversity effect (NBE) was found respetively in 8%-86% and 88-92% of consortia combinations over the different experimental phases. To our knowledge, this is the first application of an in silico approach to design functionally diverse consortia before laboratory and field testing. Furthermore, our results highlight the importance of employing a functional diversity approach for consortia design.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Mathematical Modeling of Multi-Phenomena Anisotropic Systems: Ejection of Primary Aerosols during the Fast Pyrolysis of Biomass

This study introduces a novel particle model for biomass fast pyrolysis, incorporating an anisotropic cylindrical particle to address mass and energy transport coupled with aerosol ejection, which previous models have overlooked. The main contribution lies in developing a model that considers aerosol generation in anisotropic cylindrical particles for the first time, addressing bubbling dynamics and bursting within the liquid phase. The population balance equation describes bubble dynamics and aerosol formation, capturing phenomena like nucleation, growth, coalescence, and bursting. The model employs the method of moments with bubble volume as an internal variable, substantially reducing computational costs by eliminating dependence on this variable. Results highlight the significant impact of anisotropy and particle size on aerosol ejection: smaller, less elongated particles experience faster heating, quicker conversion, and the increased accumulation of the liquid intermediate phase. Specifically, 1 mm diameter particles yield higher concentrations of metaplast and bio-oil aerosols, exceeding 15%, compared to concentrations below 11% for 3 mm particles. This model provides insights into aerosol structure (volume, surface area), aiding in understanding aerosol reactivity at the reactor scale.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Experimental nitrogen and phosphorus enrichment stimulates multiple trophic levels of algal and detrital-based food webs: a global meta-analysis from streams and rivers

Anthropogenic increases in nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) concentrations can strongly influence the structure and function of ecosystems. Even though lotic ecosystems receive cumulative inputs of nutrients applied to and deposited on land, no comprehensive assessment has quantified nutrient-enrichment effects within streams and rivers. We conducted a meta-analysis of published studies that experimentally increased concentrations of N and/or P in streams and rivers to examine how enrichment alters ecosystem structure (state: primary producer and consumer biomass and abundance) and function (rate: primary production, leaf breakdown rates, metabolism) at multiple trophic levels (primary producer, microbial heterotroph, primary and secondary consumers, and integrated ecosystem). Our synthesis included 184 studies, 885 experiments, and 3497 biotic responses to nutrient enrichment. We documented widespread increases in organismal biomass and abundance (mean response = +48%) and rates of ecosystem processes (+54%) to enrichment across multiple trophic levels, with no large differences in responses among trophic levels or between autotrophic or heterotrophic food-web pathways. Responses to nutrient enrichment varied with the nutrient added (N, P, or both) depending on rate versus state variable and experiment type, and were greater in flume and whole-stream experiments than in experiments using nutrient-diffusing substrata. Generally, nutrient-enrichment effects also increased with water temperature and light, and decreased under elevated ambient concentrations of inorganic N and/or P. Overall, increased concentrations of N and/or P altered multiple food-web pathways and trophic levels in lotic ecosystems. Finally, our results indicate that preservation or restoration of biodiversity and ecosystem functions of streams and rivers requires management of nutrient inputs and consideration of multiple trophic pathways.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Constraining long‐term model predictions for woody growth using tropical tree rings

The strength and persistence of the tropical carbon sink hinges on the long-term responses of woody growth to climatic variations and increasing CO 2 . However, the sensitivity of tropical woody growth to these environmental changes is poorly understood, leading to large uncertainties in growth predictions. Here, we used tree ring records from a Southeast Asian tropical forest to constrain ED2.2-hydro, a terrestrial biosphere model with explicit vegetation demography. Specifically, we assessed individual-level woody growth responses to historical climate variability and increases in atmospheric CO 2 (C a ). When forced with historical C a , ED2.2-hydro reproduced the magnitude of increases in intercellular CO 2 concentration (a major determinant of photosynthesis) estimated from tree ring carbon isotope records. In contrast, simulated growth trends were considerably larger than those obtained from tree rings, suggesting that woody biomass production efficiency (WBPE = woody biomass production:gross primary productivity) was overestimated by the model. The estimated WBPE decline under increasing C a based on model-data discrepancy was comparable to or stronger than (depending on tree species and size) the observed WBPE changes from a multi-year mature-forest CO 2 fertilization experiment. In addition, we found that ED2.2-hydro generally overestimated climatic sensitivity of woody growth, especially for late-successional plant functional types. The model-data discrepancy in growth sensitivity to climate was likely caused by underestimating WBPE in hot and dry years due to commonly used model assumptions on carbon use efficiency and allocation. To our knowledge, this is the first study to constrain model predictions of individual tree-level growth sensitivity to C a and climate against tropical tree-ring data. Our results suggest that improving model processes related to WBPE is crucial to obtain better predictions of tropical forest responses to droughts and increasing C a . Finally, more accurate parameterization of WBPE will likely reduce the stimulation of woody growth by C a rise predicted by biosphere models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Marine Renewable Energy Applications for Restorative Ocean Farming: Kelp

Kelp farming and kelp forest restoration have both been proposed as a solution to locally decrease the impacts of ocean acidification and eutrophication, often with co-benefits to other forms of aquaculture and mariculture. Compared to global markets, the kelp industry in the United States is still in its early phases, with the first commercial kelp farm founded in Casco Bay, Maine in 2010. Since then, interest and effort in kelp production has been increasing, with farms now present in Maine, New Hampshire, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, New York, Washington, and Alaska. Many research projects are underway in the United States to explore benefits of 3D ocean farming, tackle logistical problems of working in the ocean, autonomous farming, and explore viable end uses for kelp products. In seaweed farming, to remove the stored carbon or excess nutrients from the system, the biomass needs to be harvested at the optimal time to avoid the release of CO 2 that comes with decomposition. Timing of the harvest is also important for maximum crop yield, which can vary based on the final product. Additional monitoring needs can include a variety of water quality metrics, growth measurements, and visuals to ensure the health of the farm, comply with permits, support operations and maintenance functions. The variables measured may vary by desired end use of the product, location of farm, and operational design. Monitoring all of these parameters requires specialized devices that can be costly and challenging to maintain. Monitoring devices often face power and logistical constraints that could prevent kelp farmers from adopting these technologies or receiving accurate, efficient monitoring to assess ecosystem benefits and valuation. Marine energy has been identified as a possible power source for these devices. This project investigates the power needs for conducting kelp farm environmental monitoring compared with the available marine energy resource to evaluate if locally generated ocean energy could provide a solution to these monitoring challenges and benefit kelp farmers. This process was structured as follows: 1. Define what data is needed for farmers and their communities through desk research and interviews with end users. 2. Identify sensors and power requirements currently in use or available for commercial purchase. 3. Analyze current kelp and other mariculture farm locations for the potential marine energy resource. 4. Analyze farm designs and associated structures to make recommendations for marine energy design. 5. Quantify value that investment in sensors could provide in terms of carbon credit possibilities.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Scaling plant responses to high temperature from cell to ecosystem

Plant survival and productivity decrease with exposure to less favourable environments. The negative effects of environmental factors such as water-deficit and salinity stress on vegetation are relatively well studied, primarily due to the large losses in crop yield and forest biomass caused by these stresses. Although the impact of combined heat and drought on plants has received considerable interest in recent years due to climate change, there has been less focus on ascertaining the impact of heat stress alone at a range of temporal and spatial scales. The steady increase in global mean temperatures and (more importantly) variability in extreme temperatures is translating into more frequent and extreme heat stress episodes, which in turn reduce plant productivity. Further, projected increases in both day and night temperatures and the predicted impact of these changes on agricultural and forest productivity have drawn attention to the need to better address the direct effects of heat on plants. In particular, there has been tremendous interest in understanding the short- and long-term effects of heat at the cellular and whole-plant levels, including work on crops of agricultural importance and species from less managed ecosystems. Hence, we made a concerted effort in this Special Issue to capture recent progress in our ability to quantify the impact of heat stress, and identify new tools and approaches that have been developed and implemented to capture a wide range of responses in plants. The series of reviews and research articles presented here captures our current understanding of plant physiological and molecular responses to heat stress, as well as covering phenotyping methods, genetic diversity and potential routes through which plants can acclimate and adapt to warming climates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DNS of Flame Stabilization Dynamics of a Swirl-Stabilized Spray Burner Using Sustainable Aviation Fuels

Concern for emission reduction has motivated the development of new cost-effective alternative sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs). Drop-in SAFs with blends of the certified and the alternative fuels are beneficial because they do not require engine modifications for use in current aviation engines. Combustion characteristics are of particular concern when comparing a new fuel with Jet-A. Lean blow-off and flame stabilization have been identified to be governed by the fuel propensity to autoignition, i.e. derived cetane number. However, fundamental investigation is required to identify the impact of derived cetane number on the combustion mode of flame stabilization in a realistic combustor. The combustion mode has also a direct impact on turbulent combustion modeling closures. DNS simulations are performed in the low-Mach solver of the Pele Suite called PeleLMeX. Lagrangian multi-phase modeling is used to capture the liquid spray injection of Jet-A (reference fuel) and C1 as a representative of a low cetane number SAF. Adaptive Mesh Refinement (AMR) is used to enable a more efficient simulation of a more realistic domain size and embedded boundary treatment is used to model a bluff-body geometry. Local extinction and edge flame propagation were observed for both fuels. The edge flame propagation mode was quantified in terms of a Damkohler number defined as the ratio between progress variable reaction rate and its diffusive flux. Initial analysis suggests that a mixed mode combustion occurs for the edge flame propagation, with flame propagation assisted by ignition and autoignition co-existing for both Jet-A and C1 flames. The analysis of the extinction region shows a larger progress variable for Jet-A which can further increase the local displacement speed and present a faster reignition of the stoichiometric mixture fraction.

adaptive mesh refinement↗

Water loss through evapotranspiration after precipitation events in bioenergy crops grown in similar climatic conditions

The relationship between precipitation and evapotranspiration (ET) is critical to understanding water cycle related dynamics in ecosystems, including crops. Existing studies of bioenergy crops have primarily focused on annual or seasonal ET rates, with less attention given to the immediate ET response following precipitation events. This study examines the variation in ET rates in the days subsequent to precipitation events across various bioenergy crops—corn, switchgrass, and prairies—utilizing 13 years (2010–2022) of growing season data. Meteorological and eddy covariance flux data were collected from seven eddy covariance flux towers as part of the GLBRC scale-up experiment at the Kellogg Biological Station Long Term Ecological Research sites. The analysis revealed that average ET peaked the day after precipitation and declined linearly over the following days, with a statistically significant relationship (p-value = 0.00027, R2 = 0.96). Neither the type of biofuel vegetation nor the historical land use significantly influenced ET post-precipitation events (p-values = 0.53 and 0.153, respectively). Key predictors of ET following precipitation events include shortwave radiation, season, day of the year, ambient temperature, vapor pressure deficit (VPD), long-wave radiation, precipitation amount, soil moisture, and annual variability. These findings enhance our comprehension of ET responses in bioenergy crop systems, with implications for water management in sustainable agriculture.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Opportunities and challenges in thermochemical conversion of municipal solid waste: A comprehensive review

Recent advancements in thermochemical conversion processes have elucidated new pathways for converting municipal solid waste into valuable resources. This review explores the primary thermochemical conversion methods, including combustion, gasification, pyrolysis, torrefaction, hydrothermal carbonization, and hydrothermal liquefaction, emphasizing their potential roles in waste management and energy recovery. Key challenges including feedstock variability, ash behavior, and scale-up limitations are discussed alongside opportunities for hybrid systems and circular economy integration. A comparative analysis of research publications indicates a significant focus on thermochemical pathways within the broader context of municipal solid waste research, underscoring the growing interest in these technologies. Recent advancements in each thermochemical process, alongside their operational, technical, and economic challenges, are discussed. Comparative data reveal that torrefaction enhances the hydrophobicity and grindability of municipal solid waste components, though its energy densification benefits are more modest than those observed in biomass. Hydrothermal carbonization and liquefaction are highlighted for their ability to process high-moisture and heterogeneous waste streams. The review also synthesizes recent findings on reactor configurations, emissions control, and synergistic effects in co-processing municipal solid waste fractions. The findings underscore the importance of developing standardized protocols for municipal solid waste characterization and the need for innovative hybrid systems to improve efficiency.

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Soil carbon stocks in temperate grasslands differ strongly across sites but are insensitive to decade-long fertilization

We report enhancing soil carbon (C) storage has the potential to offset human-caused increases in atmospheric CO 2 . Rising CO 2 has occurred concurrently with increasing supply rates of biologically limiting nutrients such as nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P). However, it is unclear how increased supplies of N and P will alter soil C sequestration, particularly in grasslands, which make up nearly a third of non-agricultural land world-wide. Here, we leverage a globally distributed nutrient addition experiment (the Nutrient Network) to examine how a decade of N and P fertilization (alone and in combination) influenced soil C and N stocks at nine grassland sites spanning the continental United States. We measured changes in bulk soil C and N stocks and in three soil C fractions (light and heavy particulate organic matter, and mineral-associated organic matter fractions). Nutrient amendment had variable effects on soil C and N pools that ranged from strongly positive to strongly negative, while soil C and N pool sizes varied by more than an order of magnitude across sites. Piecewise SEM clarified that small increases in plant C inputs with fertilization did not translate to greater soil C storage. Nevertheless, peak season aboveground plant biomass (but not root biomass or production) was strongly positively related to soil C storage at seven of the nine sites, and across all nine sites, soil C covaried with moisture index and soil mineralogy, regardless of fertilization. Overall, we show that site factors such as moisture index, plant productivity, soil texture, and mineralogy were key predictors of cross-site soil C, while nutrient amendment had weaker and site-specific effects on C sequestration. This suggests that prioritizing the protection of highly productive temperate grasslands is critical for reducing future greenhouse gas losses arising from land use change.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Atikokan Digital Twin: Machine learning in a biomass energy system

The Atikokan Generating Station, operated by Ontario Power Generation, has a 200 MW, biomass-fired tower boiler that operates on a dispatch schedule with a five-minute cycle. The boiler is generally operated in the range of 40–100 MW using two of five burner levels. In order to optimize boiler performance, we propose the implementation of a unique digital twin. Our digital twin abstraction couples Bayesian inference from science-based models and from observations (machine learning) with decision theory to predict operating-variable set points that optimize the physical asset (the boiler) in the presence of uncertainty (artificial intelligence). We focus this paper on the continuous Bayesian machine learning part of the Atikokan Digital Twin; we discuss decision theory in a companion paper. We identify and learn about 12 operational, model, and measured-output parameters and their uncertainties from high-fidelity, science-based simulations of the Atikokan boiler and from the observed measurements at the power plant. Since the goal of the Atikokan Digital Twin is to implement it online in real time, we require fast function evaluations for the quantities of interest extracted from the simulations in the Bayesian analysis. We use Gaussian process regression/interpolation to create accurate, robust surrogate models. We define the Bayesian priors and likelihood function and solve for the posterior distributions of the 12 parameters. Here we then propagate these distributions (i.e., parameters with uncertainty) into the predicted distributions of 790 quantities of interest to learn about the relative importance of various sources of error including experimental, model, and operating-parameter errors.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗