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NASA NTRS2015

An Inversion Analysis of Recent Variability in Natural CO2 Fluxes Using GOSAT and In Situ Observations

About one-half of the global CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and deforestation accumulates in the atmosphere, where it contributes to global warming. The rest is taken up by vegetation and the ocean. The precise contribution of the two sinks, and their location and year-to-year variability are, however, not well understood. We use two different approaches, batch Bayesian synthesis inversion and variational data assimilation, to deduce the global spatiotemporal distributions of CO2 fluxes during 2009-2010. One of our objectives is to assess different sources of uncertainties in inferred fluxes, including uncertainties in prior flux estimates and observations, and differences in inversion techniques. For prior constraints, we utilize fluxes and uncertainties from the CASA-GFED model of the terrestrial biosphere and biomass burning driven by satellite observations and interannually varying meteorology. We also use measurement-based ocean flux estimates and two sets of fixed fossil CO2 emissions. Here, our inversions incorporate column CO2 measurements from the GOSAT satellite (ACOS retrieval, filtered and bias-corrected) and in situ observations (individual flask and afternoon-average continuous observations) to estimate fluxes in 108 regions over 8-day intervals for the batch inversion and at 3 x 3.75 weekly for the variational system. Relationships between fluxes and atmospheric concentrations are derived consistently for the two inversion systems using the PCTM atmospheric transport model driven by meteorology from the MERRA reanalysis. We compare the posterior fluxes and uncertainties derived using different data sets and the two inversion approaches, and evaluate the posterior atmospheric concentrations against independent data including aircraft measurements. The optimized fluxes generally resemble those from other studies. For example, the results indicate that the terrestrial biosphere is a net CO2 sink, and a GOSAT-only inversion suggests a shift in the global sink from the tropics south to the north relative to the prior and to an in-situ-only inversion. We also find a smaller terrestrial sink in higher-latitude northern regions in boreal summer of 2010 relative to 2009.

Carbon dioxide↗

NASA NTRS2016

The Earth Through Time: Implications for Searching for Habitability and Life on Exoplanets

The Earth has been both a habitable and inhabited planet for around 4 billion years, yet distant observers studying Earth at different epochs in our history would have detected substantially different and probably varying conditions. Understanding Earth's history thus has much to tell us about how to interpret observations of potentially habitable exoplanets. In this talk I will review the history of life on Earth, from the earliest microbial biosphere living under a relatively methane-rich atmosphere to the modern world of animals, plants, and atmospheric oxygen, with a focus on how observable conditions on Earth changed as the planet and its biosphere evolved. I'll discuss the implications of this history for assessing the habitability of-or presence of life on-planets around other stars.

Earth↗

NASA NTRS2016

Astrobiology: Life on Earth (and Elsewhere?)

Astrobiology investigates the origins, evolution and distribution of life in the universe. Scientists study how stellar systems and their planets can create planetary environments that sustain biospheres. They search for biosignatures, which are objects, substances and or patterns that indicate the presence of life. Studies of Earth's early biosphere enhance these search strategies and also provide key insights about our own origins.

Evolution↗

NASA NTRS2015

Space Based Measurements for Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide: a New Tool for Monitoring Our Environment

Fossil fuel combustion, deforestation, and other human activities are now adding almost 40 billion tons of carbon dioxide (CO2) to the atmosphere each year. Interestingly, as these emissions have increased over time, natural "sinks" in land biosphere and oceans have absorbed roughly half of this CO2, reducing the rate of atmospheric buildup by a half. Measurements of the increasing acidity (pH) of seawater indicate that the ocean absorbs one quarter of this CO2. Another quarter is apparently being absorbed by the land biosphere, but the identity and location of these natural land CO2 "sinks" are still unknown. The existing ground-based greenhouse gas monitoring network provides an accurate record of the atmospheric buildup, but still does not have the spatial resolution or coverage needed to identify or quantify CO2 sources and sinks.

OCO-2↗

NASA NTRS2016

Airborne Mission Concept for Coastal Ocean Color and Ecosystems Research

NASA airborne missions in 2011 and 2013 over Monterey Bay, CA, demonstrated novel above- and in-water calibration and validation measurements supporting a combined airborne sensor approach (imaging spectrometer, microradiometers, and a sun photometer). The resultant airborne data characterize contemporaneous coastal atmospheric and aquatic properties plus sea-truth observations from state-of-the-art instrument systems spanning a next-generation spectral domain (320-875 nm). This airborne instrument suite for calibration, validation, and research flew at the lowest safe altitude (ca. 100 ft or 30 m) as well as higher altitudes (e.g., 6,000 ft or 1,800 m) above the sea surface covering a larger area in a single synoptic sortie than ship-based measurements at a few stations during the same sampling period. Data collection of coincident atmospheric and aquatic properties near the sea surface and at altitude allows the input of relevant variables into atmospheric correction schemes to improve the output of corrected imaging spectrometer data. Specific channels support legacy and next-generation satellite capabilities, and flights are planned to within 30 min of satellite overpass. This concept supports calibration and validation activities of ocean color phenomena (e.g., river plumes, algal blooms) and studies of water quality and coastal ecosystems. The 2011 COAST mission flew at 100 and 6,000 ft on a Twin Otter platform with flight plans accommodating the competing requirements of the sensor suite, which included the Coastal-Airborne In-situ Radiometers (C-AIR) for the first time. C-AIR (Biospherical Instruments Inc.) also flew in the 2013 OCEANIA mission at 100 and 1,000 ft on the Twin Otter below the California airborne simulation of the proposed NASA HyspIRI satellite system comprised of an imaging spectrometer and thermal infrared multispectral imager on the ER-2 at 65,000 ft (20,000 m). For both missions, the Compact-Optical Profiling System (Biospherical Instruments, Inc.), an in-water system with microradiometers matching C-AIR, was deployed to compare sea-truth measurements and low-altitude Twin Otter flights within Monterey Bay red tide events. This novel airborne and in-water sensor capability advances the science of coastal measurements and enables rapid response for coastal events.

Oceans↗

NASA NTRS2018

The Habitability of Proxima Centauri b: Environmental States and Observational Discriminants

Proxima Centauri b provides an unprecedented opportunity to understand the evolution and nature of terrestrial planets orbiting M dwarfs. Although Proxima Cen b orbits within its starâ€™s habitable zone, multiple plausible evolutionary paths could have generated different environments that may or may not be habitable. Here, we use 1-D coupled climate-photochemical models to generate self-consistent atmospheres for several evolutionary scenarios, including high-O2, high-CO2, and more Earth-like atmospheres, with both oxic and anoxic compositions. We show that these modeled environments can be habitable or uninhabitable at Proxima Cen b's position in the habitable zone. We use radiative transfer models to generate synthetic spectra and thermal phase curves for these simulated environments, and use instrument models to explore our ability to discriminate between possible planetary states. These results are applicable not only to Proxima Cen b but to other terrestrial planets orbiting M dwarfs. Thermal phase curves may provide the first constraint on the existence of an atmosphere. We find that James Webb Space Telescope ( JWST) observations longward of 10 mm could characterize atmospheric heat transport and molecular composition. Detection of ocean glint is unlikely with JWST but may be within the reach of larger-aperture telescopes. Direct imaging spectra may detect O4 absorption, which is diagnostic of massive water loss and O2 retention, rather than a photosynthetic biosphere. Similarly, strong CO2 and CO bands at wavelengths shortward of 2.5 mm would indicate a CO2-dominated atmosphere. If the planet is habitable and volatile-rich, direct imaging will be the best means of detecting habitability. Earth-like planets with microbial biospheres may be identified by the presence of CH4-which has a longer atmospheric lifetime under Proxima Centauri's incident UV-and either photosynthetically produced O2 or a hydrocarbon haze layer.

Meadows, Victoria S.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Early Earth and Rocky Extrasolar Planet Characterization

Scientists are currently designing instruments, telescopes, and spacecraft to search for evidence of life beyond Earth. This search for life beyond Earth comes with an expectation to detect life that is different than the life found on modern-day Earth. But scientists will also be expected to provide compelling proof behind any claims that we are not alone. These two expectations are seemingly at odds with each other, because it will be easiest to provide compelling evidence for life when we have a deep understanding of the life we are looking at.The study of Earth history provides a means to reconcile this tension. Different periods of Earth history present us with biospheres that are dramatically different from modern-day Earth, but for which we have abundant data. This informs our understanding of habitability, because of the variety of global chemical and climatic conditions in Earth history for which we know life has thrived. The study of Earth history also informs our understanding of how to detect life; as the global influences of life have completely changed, so have the detectable features of Earth's biosphere.The appreciation of our home planet as a tightly coupled system also provides us top-level lessons for how to search for an even broader set of biospheres with a wider variety of detectable features. The study of Earth history has taught us that life is a both a function of and critical forcing on the planetary environment. Numerical models of these interactions can by driven by our understanding of Earth history, and be validated against the geological and geochemical data. These models can then be applied to a wider variety of planetary conditions. This will help scientists determine what kinds of life are possible, and eventually help them recognize and confirm the presence of life on rocky planets around other stars.

Domagal-Goldman, Shawn D.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Capturing Connections Between the Water, Energy, and Carbon Cycles with the NASA GEOS

Studying biosphere-atmosphere interactions is complex as water, energy and carbon cycles and their feedback processes have to be integrated. At NASA GMAO, we investigate these interactions with an Earth system model that allows us to explore and quantify relevant feedbacks associated with the exchanges of carbon, water, and energy fluxes within the atmosphere, within the land, and across the land-atmosphere interface. Current biosphere-atmosphere modeling research at GMAO includes a study to understand the relative contributions of land carbon flux variability and atmospheric dynamics to atmospheric CO2 variability in time and space. For this study, we use a unique capability of the NASA GEOS model, a "replay" mode that forces the model to reproduce the weather systems captured by the MERRA-2 reanalysis. Another study investigates the impact of imposed regional drought on land carbon fluxes and on subsequent atmospheric CO2 concentrations, thereby revealing interactions between the water and carbon cycles. Using the new coupled carbon-climate modeling capability, current GMAO efforts at subseasonal-to-seasonal forecasting are now being expanded, at least in research mode, to include forecasts of carbon and phenological state.

Lee, Eunjee↗

NASA NTRS2019

Investigating Sources of Variability and Error in Simulations of Carbon Dioxide in an Urban Region

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions estimation methods that use atmospheric trace gas observations, including inverse modeling techniques, perform better when carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes are more accurately transported and dispersed in the atmosphere by a numerical model. In urban areas, transport and dispersion is particularly difficult to simulate using current mesoscale meteorological models due, in part, to added complexity from surface heterogeneity and fine spatial/temporal scales. It is generally assumed that the errors in GHG estimation methods in urban areas are dominated by errors in transport and dispersion. Other significant errors include, but are not limited to, those from assumed emissions magnitude and spatial distribution. To assess the predictability of simulated trace gas mole fractions in urban observing systems using a numerical weather prediction model, we employ an Eulerian model that combines traditional meteorological variables with multiple passive tracers of atmospheric CO2 from anthropogenic inventories and a biospheric model. The predictability of the Eulerian model is assessed by comparing simulated atmospheric CO2 mole fractions to observations from four in situ tower sites (three urban and one rural) in the Washington DC/Baltimore, MD area for February 2016. Four different gridded fossil fuel emissions inventories along with a biospheric flux model are used to create an ensemble of simulated atmospheric CO2 observations within the model. These ensembles help to evaluate whether the modeled observations are impacted more by the underlying emissions or transport. The spread of modeled observations using the four emission fields indicates the model's ability to distinguish between the different inventories under various meteorological conditions. Overall, the Eulerian model performs well; simulated and observed average CO2 mole fractions agree within 1% when averaged at the three urban sites across the month. However, there can be differences greater than 10% at any given hour, which are attributed to complex meteorological conditions rather than differences in the inventories themselves. On average, the mean absolute error of the simulated compared to actual observations is generally twice as large as the standard deviation of the modeled mole fractions across the four emission inventories. This result supports the assumption, in urban domains, that the predicted mole fraction error relative to observations is dominated by errors in model meteorology rather than errors in the underlying fluxes in winter months. As such, minimizing errors associated with atmospheric transport and dispersion may help improve the performance of GHG estimation models more so than improving flux priors in the winter months. We also find that the errors associated with atmospheric transport in urban domains are not restricted to certain times of day. This suggests that atmospheric inversions should use CO2 observations that have been filtered using meteorological observations rather than assuming that meteorological modeling is most accurate at certain times of day (such as using only mid-afternoon observations).

CO2↗

NASA NTRS2020

Dynamical Forecasts of Tropical Terrestrial Carbon Fluxes with the NASA S2S Retrospective Forecast System

Recent advances in the ability to predict climate anomalies at sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales allow us to explore the possibility of forecasting carbon flux anomalies. Although carbon flux forecasting is a relatively new concept, it is potentially beneficial as it can help us better understand global and regional land-atmosphere carbon feedbacks associated with climate variations and can provide guidance for future field mission design. Here we evaluate the skill of forecasted terrestrial carbon anomalies generated from meteorological anomalies produced with the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) S2S forecast system. We focus here on three representative time periods (the most recent 2015-2016 El Nino, 2011 La Nina, and 2014 as a neutral year), with each corresponding 9-month forecast comprising four ensemble members initialized in the preceding December. The meteorological variables produced by the GMAO forecast system were bias-corrected using a climatology derived from the Modern Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2) before being used to drive a suite of offline simulations with the NASA Catchment-CN terrestrial biosphere model, a model that computes water-energy-carbon dynamics. Forecasts are evaluated by comparing against satellite-driven estimates of gross primary production (GPP) and inverse model estimates of net carbon flux that incorporate satellite carbon dioxide measurements. We find that the restrospectively predicted carbon fluxes in the tropics reasonably reproduce the signs and magnitudes of the observed anomalies between the 2015-2016 El Nino and the 2011 La Nina for both net flux and GPP. For instance, for the El Nino period, the magnitude of the forecasted negative GPP anomaly in the South American tropics (which undergoes anomalously warm and dry conditions) agrees with the observed GPP anomaly at leads of up to three or four months. Overall, this study demonstrates potential skill in the forecast of biospheric carbon fluxes a few months in advance, a capability that could contribute to attribution studies focusing on carbon flux variations and support innovative observation strategies in the future.

Lee, Eunjee↗

NASA NTRS2018

An Interplay between Photons, Canopy Structure, and Recollision Probability: A Review of the Spectral Invariants Theory of 3D Canopy Radiative Transfer Processes

Earth observations collected by remote sensors provide unique information to our ever-growing knowledge of the terrestrial biosphere. Yet, retrieving information from remote sensing data requires sophisticated processing and demands a better understanding of the underlying physics. This paper reviews research efforts that lead to the developments of the stochastic radiative transfer equation (RTE) and the spectral invariants theory. The former simplifies the characteristics of canopy structures with a pair-correlation function so that the 3D information can be succinctly packed into a 1D equation. The latter indicates that the interactions between photons and canopy elements converge to certain invariant patterns quantifiable by a few wavelength independent parameters, which satisfy the law of energy conservation. By revealing the connections between plant structural characteristics and photon recollision probability, these developments significantly advance our understanding of the transportation of radiation within vegetation canopies. They enable a novel physically-based algorithm to simulate the “hot-spot” phenomenon of canopy bidirectional reflectance while conserving energy, a challenge known to the classic radiative transfer models. Therefore, these theoretical developments have a far-reaching influence in optical remote sensing of the biosphere.

vegetation remote sensing; stochastic radiative tr↗

NASA NTRS2020

The Impacts of Fossil Fuel Emission Uncertainties and Accounting for 3-D Chemical CO2 Production on Inverse Natural Carbon Flux Estimates from Satellite and In Situ Data

Atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) inversions for estimating natural carbon fluxes typically do not allow for adjustment of fossil fuel CO2 emissions, despite significant uncertainties in emission inventories and inadequacies in the specification of international bunker emissions in inversions. Also, most inversions place CO2 release from fossil fuel combustion and biospheric sources entirely at the surface. However, a non-negligible portion of the emissions actually occurs in the form of reduced carbon species, which are eventually oxidized to CO2 downwind. Omission of this ‘chemical pump’ can result in a significant redistribution of the inferred total carbon fluxes among regions. We assess the impacts of different prescriptions of fossil fuel emissions and accounting for the chemical pump on flux estimation, with a novel aspect of conducting both satellite CO2 observation-based and surface in situ-based inversions. We apply 3-D carbon monoxide (CO) loss rates archived from a state-of-the-art GEOS chemistry and climate model simulation in a forward transport model run to simulate the distribution of CO2 originating from oxidation of carbon species. We also subtract amounts from the prior surface CO2 fluxes that are actually emitted in the form of fossil and biospheric CO, methane, and nonmethane volatile organic compounds (VOCs). We find that the posterior large-scale fluxes are generally insensitive to the finer-scale spatial differences between the ODIAC and CDIAC fossil fuel CO2 gridded datasets and assumptions about international bunker emissions. However, accounting for 3-D chemical CO2 production and the surface correction shifts the global carbon sink, e.g., from land to ocean and from the tropics to the north, with a magnitude and even direction that depend on assumptions about the surface correction. A GOSAT satellite-based inversion is more sensitive to the chemical pump than one using in situ observations, exhibiting substantial flux impacts of 0.28, 0.53, and -0.47 Pg C yr(exp -1) over tropical land, global land, and oceans, due to differences in the horizontal and vertical sampling of the wo observation types. Overall, the biases from neglecting the chemical pump appear to be minor relative to the flux estimate uncertainties and the differences between the in situ and GOSAT inversions, but their relative importance will grow in the future as observational coverage further increases and satellite retrieval biases decrease.

James S Wang↗

NASA NTRS2019

Global Carbon Budget 2019

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere – the “global carbon budget” – is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (E(FF)) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land use change (E(LUC)), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its growth rate (G(ATM)) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (S(OCEAN)) and terrestrial CO2 sink (S(LAND)) are estimated with global process models constrained by observations. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (B(IM)), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the last decade available (2009–2018), E(FF) was 9.5±0.5 GtC/yr, E(LUC) 1.5±0.7 GtC/yr, G(ATM) 4.9±0.02 GtC/yr (2.3±0.01 ppm/yr), S(OCEAN) 2.5±0.6 GtC/yr, and S(LAND) 3.2±0.6 GtC/yr, with a budget imbalance B(IM) of 0.4 GtC/yr indicating overestimated emissions and/or underestimated sinks. For the year 2018 alone, the growth in E(FF) was about 2.1 % and fossil emissions increased to 10.0±0.5 GtC/yr, reaching 10 GtC/yr for the first time in history, E(LUC) was 1.5±0.7 GtC/yr, for total anthropogenic CO2 emissions of 11.5±0.9 GtC/yr (42.5±3.3 GtCO2). Also for 2018, G(ATM) was 5.1±0.2 GtC/yr (2.4±0.1 ppm/yr), S(OCEAN) was 2.6±0.6 GtC/yr, and S(LAND) was 3.5±0.7 GtC/yr, with a B(IM) of 0.3 GtC. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 407.38±0.1 ppm averaged over 2018. For 2019, preliminary data for the first 6–10 months indicate a reduced growth in E(FF) of +0.6 % (range of −0.2 % to 1.5 %) based on national emissions projections for China, the USA, the EU, and India and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. Overall, the mean and trend in the five components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2018, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC/yr persist for the representation of semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. A detailed comparison among individual estimates and the introduction of a broad range of observations shows (1) no consensus in the mean and trend in land use change emissions over the last decade, (2) a persistent low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) an apparent underestimation of the CO2 variability by ocean models outside the tropics. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding of the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2018a, b, 2016, 2015a, b, 2014, 2013).

global carbon budget 2019↗

NASA NTRS2019

Role of forest regrowth in global carbon sink dynamics

Although the existence of a large carbon sink in terrestrial ecosystems is well-established, the drivers of this sink remain uncertain. It has been suggested that perturbations to forest demography caused by past land-use change, management, and natural disturbances may be causing a large component of current carbon uptake. Here we use a global compilation of forest age observations, combined with a terrestrial biosphere model with explicit modeling of forest regrowth, to partition the global forest carbon sink between old-growth and regrowth stands over the period 1981–2010. For 2001–2010 we find a carbon sink of 0.85 (0.66–0.96) Pg/year located in intact old-growth forest, primarily in the moist tropics and boreal Siberia, and 1.30 (1.03–1.96) Pg/year located in stands regrowing after past disturbance. Approaching half of the sink in regrowth stands would have occurred from demographic changes alone, in the absence of other environmental changes. These age-constrained results show consistency with those simulated using an ensemble of demographically-enabled terrestrial biosphere models following an independent reconstruction of historical land use and management. We estimate that forests will accumulate an additional 69 (44–131) Pg C in live biomass from changes in demography alone if natural disturbances, wood harvest, and reforestation continue at rates comparable to those during 1981–2010. Our results confirm that it is not possible to understand the current global terrestrial carbon sink without accounting for the sizeable sink due to forest demography. They also imply that a large portion of the current terrestrial carbon sink is strictly transient in nature.

forest↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Exploring Coupled Land-Atmosphere Carbon Dynamics and Seasonal Carbon Forecast Skill

Terrestrial biosphere is an integral part of the climate system and plays a vital role in controlling the dynamics of the Earth’s carbon cycle. In this talk, I will present recent efforts to explore coupled land-atmosphere carbon dynamics and seasonal carbon cycle predictability. First, by imposing an idealized spring drought in coupled land‐atmosphere ensemble simulations, we investigated the impact of a regional drought on land and atmospheric carbon. Through the drought-induced impact on remote meteorology, the capability of the land’s carbon uptake is altered in both the drought area and the adjacent areas. The induced anomalies of the atmospheric CO2 extend to an area up to three times of that of the imposed drought, which suggests that atmospheric transport needs to be considered in the interpretation of the drought impact on carbon anomalies. Increase in column‐averaged monthly CO2 is at the edge of the uncertainty from single soundings of current greenhouse gas observing satellites. Secondly, the seasonal carbon forecast skill was explored using NASA’s subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) ensemble forecast and terrestrial biosphere model. The result demonstrates an ability to accurately predict spring-summer carbon uptake in the Northern Hemisphere mid and high latitude land at multi-month leads. The prediction skill appears to be achieved by accurate forecasts of snow removal timing, which provides a latent predictability to the forecast system, and by proper initialization of carbon and nitrogen states. Additionally, I will briefly discuss other ongoing research to improve hydrometeorological prediction by integrating biogeochemical processes, to evaluate forecast skill of wildfire carbon, and to apply subseasonal forecasts to water resources management.

Eunjee Lee↗

NASA NTRS2016

Modeling pN2 Through Geological Time: Implications for Planetary Climates and Atmospheric Biosignatures

Nitrogen is a major nutrient for all life on Earth and could plausibly play a similar role in extraterrestrial biospheres. The major reservoir of nitrogen at Earth’s surface is atmospheric N2, but recent studies have proposed that the size of this reservoir may have fluctuated significantly over the course of Earth’s history with particularly low levels in the Neoarchean—presumably as a result of biological activity. We used a biogeochemical box model to test which conditions are necessary to cause large swings in atmospheric N2 pressure. Parameters for our model are constrained by observations of modern Earth and reconstructions of biomass burial and oxidative weathering in deep time. A 1-D climate model was used to model potential effects on atmospheric climate. In a second set of tests, we perturbed our box model to investigate which parameters have the greatest impact on the evolution of atmospheric pN2 and consider possible implications for nitrogen cycling on other planets. Our results suggest that (a) a high rate of biomass burial would have been needed in the Archean to draw down atmospheric pN2 to less than half modern levels, (b) the resulting effect on temperature could probably have been compensated by increasing solar luminosity and a mild increase in pCO2, and (c) atmospheric oxygenation could have initiated a stepwise pN2 rebound through oxidative weathering. In general, life appears to be necessary for significant atmospheric pN2 swings on Earth-like planets. Our results further support the idea that an exoplanetary atmosphere rich in both N2 and O2 is a signature of an oxygen-producing biosphere.

Biosignatures↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Detectability of anthropogenic impacts on terrestrial carbon storage through space-based greenhouse gas observations

While changes in human activity and their impact on the terrestrial biosphere may be apparent in inventory and land-surface satellite data, reliably matching these changes to signals in atmospheric greenhouse gases remains challenging. The dominant signals in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) are those of the seasonal and diurnal variability of the terrestrial biosphere. As a result, the historically large short-term change in anthropogenic fossil fuel emissions due to COVID-19 produced an atmospheric CO2 signal near the threshold of detectability of the current space-based observing system. Impacts of anthropogenic activity on terrestrial carbon storage are likewise expected to be difficult, if not impossible, to detect and validate with atmospheric observations. For example, many forest management projects involve reduction of wood removals that would otherwise be taken off site and decompose years later and are thus not reflected in immediate onsite carbon fluxes. Nevertheless, changes implemented over a jurisdictional scale, as opposed to individual projects, may be detectable. This presentation will analyze to what extent NASA’s Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS)/Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 (OCO-2) assimilated column CO2 (XCO2) product is able to detect anthropogenic changes to terrestrial carbon storage and the results of several simulation experiments meant to represent potential forest management scenarios. As examples, we consider past and future changes due to conversion in the Tropics to agricultural land use from slash-and-burn, e.g., from Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation in developing countries (REDD+) efforts. This has the potential to inform what practices may be observable with current and future technology, e.g., Europe’s upcoming CO2 monitoring mission (CO2M), and where improvement is needed.

Brad Weir↗

NASA NTRS2022

Global Carbon Budget 2022

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesize data sets and methodologies to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO 2 emissions (E FOS ) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (E LUC ), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO 2 concentration is measured directly, and its growth rate (G ATM ) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO 2 sink (S OCEAN ) is estimated with global ocean biogeochemistry models and observation-based data products. The terrestrial CO 2 sink (S LAND ) is estimated with dynamic global vegetation models. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (B IM ), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the year 2021, E FOS increased by 5.1 % relative to 2020, with fossil emissions at 10.1 ± 0.5 GtC yr −1 (9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr −1 when the cement carbonation sink is included), and E LUC was 1.1 ± 0.7 GtC yr −1 , for a total anthropogenic CO 2 emission (including the cement carbonation sink) of 10.9 ± 0.8 GtC yr −1 (40.0 ± 2.9 GtCO 2 ). Also, for 2021, G ATM was 5.2 ± 0.2 GtC yr −1 (2.5 ± 0.1 ppm yr −1 ), S OCEAN was 2.9 ± 0.4 GtC yr −1 , and S LAND was 3.5 ± 0.9 GtC yr −1 , with a B IM of −0.6 GtC yr −1 (i.e. the total estimated sources were too low or sinks were too high). The global atmospheric CO 2 concentration averaged over 2021 reached 414.71 ± 0.1 ppm. Preliminary data for 2022 suggest an increase in E FOS relative to 2021 of +1.0 % (0.1 % to 1.9 %) globally and atmospheric CO 2 concentration reaching 417.2 ppm, more than 50 % above pre-industrial levels (around 278 ppm). Overall, the mean and trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2021, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yr −1 persist for the representation of annual to semi-decadal variability in CO 2 fluxes. Comparison of estimates from multiple approaches and observations shows (1) a persistent large uncertainty in the estimate of land-use change emissions, (2) a low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO 2 flux in the northern extratropics, and (3) a discrepancy between the different methods on the strength of the ocean sink over the last decade. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding of the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this data set. The data presented in this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2022 (Friedlingstein et al., 2022b).

Pierre Friedlingstein↗