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At least 289 records · Page 16

Enhancing the NASA Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resource Web Data Delivery System with Geographic Information System (GIS) Capabilities

Renewable energy technologies are changing the face of the world's energy market. Currently, these technologies are being incorporated within existing structures to increase energy efficiency. Crucial to the success of the emerging renewable market is the availability of accurate, global solar radiation, and meteorology data. This poster traces the history of the development of an effort to distribute data parameters from NASA's research for use in the energy sector applications spanning from renewable energy to energy efficiency. These data may be useful to several renewable energy sectors: solar and wind power generation, agricultural crop modeling, and sustainable buildings.

Chandler, William S.↗

Machine Learning Accelerated First-Principles Study of the Hydrodeoxygenation of Propanoic Acid

The complex reaction network of catalytic biomass conversions often involves hundreds of surface intermediates and thousands of reaction steps, greatly hindering the rational design of metal catalysts for these conversions. Here, we present a framework of machine learning (ML)-accelerated first-principles studies for the hydrodeoxygenation (HDO) of propanoic acid over transition metal surfaces. The microkinetic model (MKM) is initially parametrized by ML-predicted energies and iteratively improved by identifying the rate-determining species and steps (RDS), computing their energies by density functional theory (DFT), and reparameterizing the MKM until all the RDS are computed by DFT. The Gaussian process (GP) model performs significantly better than the linear ridge regression model for predicting both the adsorption free energies and transition state free energies. Parameterized with energies from the GP model, only 5–20% of the full reaction network has to be computed by DFT for the MKM to possess DFT-level accuracy for the TOF and dominant reaction pathway. While the linear ridge regression model performs worse than the GP model, its performance is greatly improved when only transition states are predicted by the regression model and adsorption energies are computed by DFT. Overall, we find that a high accuracy in adsorption free energies is more important for a reliable MKM than a high accuracy in TS free energies. Lastly, based on the GP model with GOH and GCHCHCO as catalyst descriptors, we build two-dimensional volcano plots in activity and selectivity that can help design promising alloy catalysts for HDO reactions of organic acids.

adsorption↗

Data-driven modeling of dynamic occupant thermostat override behavior for demand response applications

Buildings consume nearly 40% of global energy and produce similar emissions. Whiletechnological advances address efficiency, occupant behavior causes energy use variations up to 300% between identical buildings. This gap between predicted and actual building performance impacts building design, operations, and grid demand management programs. Through analyses of smart thermostat data from 1,400 single-occupant homes, the researchdemonstrates that occupants respond to 8°F thermostat setpoint changes within a median of 15 minutes, while 2°F changes trigger responses within a median of 30 minutes. This highlights an understudied temporal relationship between thermostat setbacks and response time of occupant behaviors. Models of such behavior dynamics are required to incorporate occupant impacts into building performance simulation. A key contribution of this dissertation is the Thermal Frustration Theory (TFT), which positsthat thermal discomfort driven behaviors are caused by the time-accumulation of discomfort, not simply a temperature deviation threshold or a delay from an initiating event. Using a dataset of 634 thermostats, each with 25+ manual setpoint changes, a comparative analysis of TFT and comfort zone and a delayed response theories demonstrated that personalized TFT models better predict when manual setpoint change occur. This was measured by the area under the curve statistical measure (AUC); all three models perform similarly by a Matthews Correlation Coefficient measure. Higher AUC performance is especially important for modeling occupant behavior in demand response programs where false negatives of rare occupant interactions could adversely affect grid stability. EnergyPlus based simulations were conducted with TFT-derived occupant models, demonstrating the ability to identify parameters of known TFT models from only data observable with smart thermostats, even under the presence of noise from routine overrides. Overall, the dissertation highlights that thermostat interactions are neither static,instantaneous, nor driven solely by the environment. Instead, temporal accumulation of discomfort and routine-based behavior play important roles. The methodology and results offer a pathway towards more accurate modeling of human-building interactions for policy assessment, building design, and demand response programs.

Sharma, Kunind [Northeastern University] (ORCID:00↗

Learning-Based Building Flexibility Estimation and Control to Improve Microgrid Economics and Resilience: Preprint

This paper proposes a learning-based building flexibility estimation and control framework to improve system economics and resilience. A data-driven building load flexibility model consisting of weather forecasting and estimating load consumption is proposed to quantify building heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) load flexibility. A reinforcement learning-based microgrid controller is proposed to dispatch distributed generators, distributed energy resources, and build HVAC loads while taking flexibility information as one of the inputs. Simulation analysis is conducted on the model of a real microgrid in California. The effectiveness of the proposed learning-based building flexibility estimation and control in reducing microgrid energy costs and improving the sustainability of critical loads is demonstrated.

building load flexibility↗

A Probabilistic Approach to Load Modeling for Central HVAC Systems in Large Commercial Buildings for Retrofit Decisions Under Uncertainty

Retrofitting central HVAC systems in large commercial buildings with advanced technologies like heat recovery chillers (HRCs) offers a significant opportunity to enhance energy efficiency. However, analyzing these retrofits is challenging with traditional whole-building simulation tools, which require intensive calibration and struggle to model innovative system configurations and controls. To overcome these limitations, this study proposes a load profilebased retrofit analysis framework that provides better decisions under uncertainty. The main focus of this paper is the development of a probabilistic load profile model that can be used in the framework by using exploratory data analysis (EDA) of measured building data to properly quantify its inherent variability. A non-parametric Gaussian Process (GP) model was employed to capture the time- and weather-dependent characteristics of the heating load while explicitly modeling its uncertainty. The model's effectiveness is demonstrated through strong predictive performance on unseen data and physically interpretable insights into load behavior. This data-driven, probabilistic load profile serves as a robust and flexible input for subsequent system simulations, enabling a more confident and statistically sound analysis of retrofit potential.

Ham, S W↗

Evolving Electricity Supply and Demand to Achieve Net-Zero Emissions: Insights from the EMF-37 Study

This paper explores the role of electricity in achieving economy-wide net-zero CO2 emissions by 2050 in the United States based on results from 17 models as part of the 37th Stanford Energy Modeling Forum (EMF-37). In the study's Net-Zero scenario, the models use diverse pathways to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, with gross energy-related residual emissions ranging from 17.2 to 66.6 % of 2020 levels. Electricity consistently emerges as central to achieving net-zero, with models projecting rapid electrification of end-uses and rapidly declining CO2 intensity of electricity. However, the extent of electrification and the technology mix to decarbonize the power sector vary considerably across models. In the Net-Zero scenario, electricity is projected to evolve from ~20 % of final energy in 2020 to 17-63 % in 2050 across the models driven by electrification in all sectors-buildings, industry, and transportation-and, to a lesser extent by direct air capture. By 2050, total electricity consumption increases by 24-176 % (relative to 2020), accompanied by significant expansion in renewable electricity production. Together, solar and wind generation grows by 175-834 %, supplying 45-90 % of total electricity in 2050, with wind achieving slightly higher shares than solar. Electricity storage technologies are deployed at scale to support wind and solar generation. The electricity generation mix varies across models: some project almost complete reliance on renewables, while others see a substantial role for natural gas, often with carbon capture and storage. This paper synthesizes the rich diversity of modeling approaches and results, highlighting differing views on how key drivers of electricity demand and supply might evolve.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Global and regional perspectives on optimizing thermo-responsive dynamic windows for energy-efficient buildings

Architectural thermo-responsive dynamic windows offer an autonomous solution for solar heat regulation, thereby reducing building energy consumption. Previous work has emphasized the significance of thermo-responsive windows in hot climates due to their role in solar heat control and subsequent energy conservation; conversely, our study provides a different perspective. Through a global-scale analysis, we explore over 100 material samples and execute more than 2.8 million simulations across over two thousand global locations. World heatmap results, derived from well-trained artificial neural network models, reveal that thermo-responsive windows are especially useful in climates where buildings demand both heating and cooling energy, whereas thermo-responsive windows with optimal transition temperatures show no dynamic features in most of low-latitude tropical regions. Additionally, this study provides a practical guideline and an open-source mapping tool to optimize the intrinsic properties of thermo-responsive materials and evaluate their energy performance for sustainable buildings at various geographical scales.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Theory and simulations of cross-beam energy transfer between speckled laser beams

In this paper, we introduce a realistic modeling of laser beams smoothed by random phase plates to investigate cross-beam energy transfer (CBET). We compute the total field of the smoothed laser beams, which allows us to perform accurate simulations and to build a model accounting for the realistic structure of the speckles. This lets us confirm the results already discussed in a previous work given by Oudin et al. [Phys. Plasmas 29, 112112 (2022)]. When CBET is induced by a plasma flow, plane wave models can predict the exchange between smoothed laser beams. By contrast, when the exchange is caused by a wavelength shift between the laser fields of each beam, plane wave models overestimate the energy transfer, even for strongly Landau-damped ion acoustic waves. We also show that the laser angular spread, which results from its focusing, affects the resonance between the ponderomotive force induced by the laser fields and the ion acoustic wave. It increases the resonance width, which weakly depends on the Landau damping rate when there is a wavelength shift and no flow. In addition, the power transfer obtained with or without a phase plate is essentially the same in the perturbative regime and for small crossing angles.

Laser plasma interactions↗

Evaluation of the Energy, Hygrothermal, and Thermal Capacity Performance of Cross-Laminated Timber

Cross-laminated timber (CLT) construction is gaining momentum in the US because it offers multiple advantages over traditional construction methods. Benefits that have received the most attention focus on constructability, the environment, and protection (e.g., blast resistance), although CLT construction is likely to offer other benefits, as well. Still, these have not been studied at length because such evaluations are costly, requiring long-term assessments in an actual building and specialized technical knowledge. Among the possible benefits, CLT construction likely provides a higher-performing building envelope. Using CLT panels to enclose a building means fewer joints in the opaque envelope than what is required in traditional stick-framed construction. Fewer joints mean fewer locations where the air- and water-resistive barrier (WRB) could be compromised; thus, a CLT building enclosure may require less maintenance and have a longer lifespan than a traditionally built structure because of fewer air and water leaks. In addition, CLT’s thermal mass moderates indoor temperatures, allowing the heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) system to operate more efficiently during peak hours, reducing operational energy consumption throughout the lifetime of the CLT building (Salonvaara et al., 2022). Furthermore, more stable indoor temperatures can increase occupant comfort. The CLT’s thermal mass can also reduce energy costs by adjusting to utility time-of-use pricing without affecting occupant comfort. The ability of CLT buildings to bridge periods without HVAC operation prepares them for future grid interaction and provides a certain level of resilience against power outages. Researchers have attempted to quantify these benefits; however, their work is based on simplified simulations with numerous assumptions. To correctly understand the benefits, an actual building must be monitored. Therefore, information needs to be gathered on indoor and outdoor temperatures, HVAC energy consumption, thermostat setpoints, temperatures, and thermal transport in CLT components to comprehend how these parameters are affected by the CLT’s thermal mass. These data are needed to reduce the number of assumptions and calibrate simulation models to optimize HVAC controls to minimize overall energy consumption, reduce energy use and higher fees during peak demand, and maintain occupant comfort. Additionally, the calibrated simulation model allows the optimization exercise to be repeated in various US climates. Potential benefits can be tailored to buildings in various locations, and decisions can be made on where CLT construction could be most advantageous. Furthermore, monitoring and simulation results are needed to evaluate the durability of the CLT structures in different climates. This project’s researchers gathered information to help understand and quantify the benefits of CLT buildings concerning operational energy, moderated indoor temperatures, and comfort; the dynamic operation to provide grid services; and resilience in times of power outage. Through the corroboration of simulation models with real-world measurements, this study paves the way for extrapolating findings to other climatic zones and building typologies, thereby broadening the understanding of CLT’s multifaceted benefits and reinforcing its position as a material of choice in sustainable construction.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Extension of Virtual Test Bed Advanced Modeling and Simulation Capabilities for Fusion Energy

The National Reactor Innovation Center (NRIC) was established to accelerate the deployment of novel reactor concepts. This is achieved by providing physical and virtual spaces for building and testing reactor experiments. The Virtual Test Bed (VTB) represents the virtual counterpart to the physical test beds. It is a collaboration with the Department of Energy’s (DOE) Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program with the mission to accelerate the deployment of advanced reactors by facilitating the adoption of advanced modeling and simulation (M&S) tools developed by the DOE. This mission has been carried out by the VTB since 2020 by hosting and featuring dozens of advanced fission nuclear reactor models developed by national laboratories and academia. The charter of the NRIC’s definition of advanced reactors also includes fusion nuclear reactors. As the tools developed by the NEAMS program are increasingly used for modeling fusion energy devices, there is an increasing need to host fusion reactor models on the VTB repository. The VTB will be extended in 2024 to support fusion energy modeling and simulation.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Advanced co-simulation framework for assessing the interplay between occupant behaviors and demand flexibility in commercial buildings

With buildings contributing significantly to electricity usage, enabling demand flexibility becomes a challenge, especially when accounting for occupant comfort. This study introduces an innovative co-simulation framework integrating multiple models: heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) system, building zone load, indoor airflow, supervisory control, and occupant comfort and behavior. Uniquely, this framework allows for a comprehensive and dynamic analysis of building systems and occupant interactions in demand response events. Using this framework, we conducted a case study using a typical small office building model. Specifically, we focused on three areas: (1) the impact of indoor airflow modeling on energy use, occupant comfort, and behaviors forecasting, (2) the impact of occupant behaviors on demand flexibility, and (3) occupant comfort and behaviors under demand response events. Key performance indicators such as energy use, flexibility factor, durations of occupant discomfort and occupant behaviors were analyzed. Our findings indicated variations in energy usage and occupant comfort within demand flexibility events, marked by uncertainty boundaries, with variability in demand shedding up to 57.9%. Here, we concluded that this framework is suitable for analyzing typical commercial buildings and their HVAC systems in terms of demand flexibility potential under the impact of occupant behaviors.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

An Open-Source Decarbonization Analytics Framework: Designing for Low-Carbon Emission Districts and Communities: Preprint

This paper introduces an open-source analytics framework designed to assist in creating low or net-zero carbon buildings and urban districts. Integrated within URBANopt, an open-source platform for energy analysis in districts and communities, this framework equips researchers, architects, engineers, and other stakeholders with tools to evaluate the carbon footprint implications of their design choices. The framework enables the analysis of various scenarios, incorporating both historical and future emission factors, and can span across different climate zones, each with distinct grid and emissions characteristics. The results showcase the framework's capability to evaluate the impact of design upgrades and control strategies on carbon emissions in districts and communities. An illustrative analysis using a hypothetical district in Denver, Colorado, shows reduced emissions from energy efficiency upgrades and control strategies, highlighting the sensitivity in their effects on emissions and energy use.

buildings energy efficiency↗

Open-cycle thermochemical energy storage for building space heating: Practical system configurations and effective energy density

Salt-hydrate thermochemical materials (TCM) are promising candidates for energy storage systems for building space heating due to their high theoretical energy density and the need for low regeneration temperature. However, water vapor is required to drive the hydration process of the TCM reactor, which poses a challenge during winter when water vapor is typically scarce. Using indoor air directly lowers the building's humidity to an unconformable level in practice, while the cold outdoor air contains limited moisture. Here we consider different integration strategies for open-cycle TCM reactors in buildings and develop a model to simulate their thermal performance across diverse buildings and climates, specifically for building space heating. The potential energy densities and the levelized cost of storage of the TCM reactor are evaluated in practical scenarios to demonstrate the load-shifting potential of TCM systems for heating applications. We use a strontium chloride (SrCl 2 )-based composite as the baseline and explore the impact of various reactor and material changes to the energy density and levelized cost of storage.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Innovating the next generation of commercial smart building software

Nearly 30% of commercial building energy use is wasted due to equipment faults and HVAC controls problems. The result is increased emissions, compromised comfort and productivity, and less reliable coordination of building power needs with a clean grid. The energy impact alone represents $17 billion in potential savings. Today’s smart building software provides a robust solution to address these operational deficiencies. Energy management and information systems (EMIS) are saving up to 9% on average, with two-year paybacks. They are being incorporated into energy management processes, commissioning services, and utility programs. As effective as they are, two barriers prevent even deeper benefits; limited personnel to fix problems once they are identified, and the expense and time to manually implement changes in control systems. In partnership with the research community, the EMIS industry is developing new capabilities to overcome these barriers. Moving beyond siloed products for either fault detection and diagnostics, or optimal control, these new capabilities empower users to not only automatically identify faults, but also to push corrective action, and control improvements to their buildings. In this paper, several areas for enhancements are documented: ‘one-time’ correction of faults such as setpoints, schedules, and economizer lockouts; short-term active testing for automated proportional integral derivative (PID) loop tuning and functional testing; and continuous supervisory control for demand flexibility and year-round efficiency. Results are presented from a pair of partner implementations out of a dozen providers integrating these enhancements into their products, including field tests from across the country, and insights into operator acceptance and integration into operations and maintenance practices.

Casillas, Armando↗

Occupant-driven end use load models for demand response and flexibility service participation of residential grid-interactive buildings

As demand response becomes increasingly used as a tool to support improved grid flexibility, it is important to consider that there are many potential types of energy end uses that may be used to support such flexibility. Residential appliances, often accounting for 30 % or more of residential energy use, are a currently untapped source of demand flexibility, particularly when aggregated together across homes. To date there has been very limited analysis of residential appliances for use as grid-interactive loads. As such, this research uses disaggregated energy end use data for 564 households, to model the electricity demand flexibility potential of the use of residential dishwashers, clothes washers, clothes dryers, ovens, and ranges (oven + stovetop) on both weekdays and weekends. This includes both at the building level, as well as aggregated to the grid level, specifically the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) region. This study was divided into two parts. Part 1 focuses on determining appliance-level loads, and Part 2, which involves aggregation to the grid. Findings suggest that among the studied appliances, clothes dryers provide the greatest demand reduction potential for most times of the day, followed by dishwashers and clothes washers. The maximum potential reduction for clothes dryers is found to be approximately at 11:00 a.m. and this potential sustains throughout most of the daytime period. When considering the willingness of households to participate, based on a survey of households in the Midwest region, clothes dryers still have the most potential for demand reduction. The availability of appliances for load modulation on weekdays and weekends indicates similar load reduction potential for all appliances. Overall, the results of this study suggest that there is an opportunity for shifting appliance usage to optimize grid efficiency and enhance demand response strategies.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Selection of Global Climate Model Data for Downscaling With Generative Machine Learning and Use in the Power Planning for Alignment of Climate and Energy Systems Project

The range of results from climate models and scenarios is important to the understanding of uncertainty in power planning analysis. A U.S. Department of Energy-funded analytic project called Power Planning for Alignment of Climate and Energy Systems is developing data and analytic methods to reflect the effects of climate change on key variables for power system planning, as part of the Grid Modernization Lab Consortium. This project will select and prepare global climate model results for use in power system planning models. A related report (Evaluation of Global Climate Models for Use in Energy Analysis) assesses the performance of various global climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 data archive for their historical skill with respect to energy system performance and for their future projections under multiple climate change scenarios. Building from that report, we describe the selection of a climate scenario (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway [SSP] 2-4.5) and five climate models: TaiESM1, EC-Earth3-CC, GFDL-CM4, EC-Earth3-Veg, and MPI-ESM1-2-HR. We describe the model selection criteria, which were based on the quality of the match between model results under historical conditions and on the representation of the range of future values for several variables. These results will be downscaled via an open-source generative machine learning method called Super-Resolution for Renewable Energy Resource Data with Climate Change Impacts.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Leveraging generative AI for urban digital twins: a scoping review on the autonomous generation of urban data, scenarios, designs, and 3D city models for smart city advancement

The digital transformation of modern cities by integrating advanced information, communication, and computing technologies has marked the epoch of data-driven smart city applications for efficient and sustainable urban management. Despite their effectiveness, these applications often rely on massive amounts of high-dimensional and multi-domain data for monitoring and characterizing different urban sub-systems, presenting challenges in application areas that are limited by data quality and availability, as well as costly efforts for generating urban scenarios and design alternatives. As an emerging research area in deep learning, Generative Artificial Intelligence (GenAI) models have demonstrated their unique values in content generation. This paper aims to explore the innovative integration of GenAI techniques and urban digital twins to address challenges in the planning and management of built environments with focuses on various urban sub-systems, such as transportation, energy, water, and building and infrastructure. The survey starts with the introduction of cutting-edge generative AI models, such as the Generative Adversarial Networks (GAN), Variational Autoencoders (VAEs), Generative Pre-trained Transformer (GPT), followed by a scoping review of the existing urban science applications that leverage the intelligent and autonomous capability of these techniques to facilitate the research, operations, and management of critical urban subsystems, as well as the holistic planning and design of the built environment. Based on the review, we discuss potential opportunities and technical strategies that integrate GenAI models into the next-generation urban digital twins for more intelligent, scalable, and automated smart city development and management.

3D city modeling↗

Utilizing AI and Spatial Data to Identify & Rapidly Disseminate Energy Infrastructure Insights

GeoGov Summit Final Presentation entitled "Utilizing AI and Spatial Data to Identify & Rapidly Disseminate Energy Infrastructure Insights". Maintaining the integrity of energy infrastructure plays a critical role in ensuring energy security. Robust foundational AI models using data from federal, state, industry, and other sources can help address integrity risk management & mitigation issues as well as evaluate extended use strategies. Trusted foundational models can help with industry adoption and accelerate innovation by enhancing integrity predictions, reduce costs, and informing infrastructure build-out. Coordination, collaboration & data sharing to develop robust models to aid in: Optimizing operations; Minimizing costs; Ensuring energy security.

Advanced Infrastructure Integrity Model (AIIM)↗